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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Since TIG was formed the Tories have enjoyed leads of between
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Since TIG was formed the Tories have enjoyed leads of between 4% and 11% in the standard voting intention polls
It is now almost a month since Chuka Umunna and others made their much publicised departure from LAB joining the new the Independent Group. The Wikipedia table above shows that’s happened in the standard voting polls since.
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(Discussion at end of last thread about Ladbrokes’ 3rd place market).
Ajax v Juventus
Liverpool v Porto
Tottenham v Man City
Barcelona v Man United
Good news for Liverpool fans.
General Election would have been much better had his conflicts over faith not come up, and the strong anti-Corbyn campaign not backfired so badly.
Assuming we get past Porto.
QF
Ajax v Juventus
Liverpool v Porto
Tottenham v Manchester City
Barcelona v Manchester United (this will be reversed)
SF
SEMI-FINAL 1
TOTTENHAM OR MAN CITY V AJAX OR JUVENTUS
SEMI-FINAL 2
MANCHESTER UNITED OR BARCELONA V LIVERPOOL OR PORTO
I’m gonna have to cheer for Man U to beat Barça.
The barracking Coutinho will get will be worth it.
The second leg of the semi will be at Anfield, you'll be able to power Western Europe with the power generated at Anfield that night.
Assuming we beat Porto
The Times understands that the prime minister has been told by senior EU officials and other European leaders that conditions for an extension to the Article 50 exit process would include the option of a second vote on EU membership.
Mrs May is expected to ask a summit of EU leaders next week for a delay to Brexit. Unless the House of Commons has ratified the withdrawal agreement by then momentum is growing across the EU for a lengthy postponement to give Britain a “long reflection period”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eu-will-agree-to-extra-time-if-there-is-a-second-brexit-referendum-z6td8nvd7
I suppose the only issue is separating genuine criticism of religions from the islamophobia or antisemitism - or in some quarters anti-Christianity - views based on bigotry.
Is Richard Dawkins, as a vocal advocate of atheism and critic of all religions, Islamophobic? Personally I would say no but there are plenty of mainstream commentators who have accused him of just such a position. So one has to be very careful where one starts the timeline of responsibility.
Looking at it the other way I can see a very clear line that can be drawn from claiming one's religion is the only truth - as all the monotheistic religions do - to extremists gunning people down. Of course along the way you need the irrational to become the unhinged but that is certainly not unusual in humans.
At last election UKIP, Plaid & LD were all very close to each other for third.
I expect UKIP vote to collapse - despite the non-stop Brexit coverage. They have proven themselves to be idiots in general and Neil Hamilton is particularly despised.
Plaid vote should be firm - and expect a small increase - their local candidate is popular, and recent Welsh polls have been good for Plaid, although they have never made much of an impact in Newport
LD have previously done very well in this seat, but they have faded badly in recent years and I cant see any reason for them to recover.
But the outsider to watch is Abolish the Welsh Assemby Party. They are likley to pick up a lot of the previous UKIP voters and I think third place will be between them and Plaid at around 1500 votes each.
Yes you’ll be able to power Western Europe with the Anfield energy!
If we beat Porto
“City get a tough one. They play Spurs on 9th, 16th and 20th. They also play United on 25th and an easy one, Burnley on 28th.”
I demand a second or even third re run until I win
As for Brexit, long delay my curvy arse, no way can they sell that to a thoroughly exasperated public
2 more years of this shit? Wed be begging Norsefire to take over
Do what we did to Citeh last season in the QFs.
If I leave German territory after Brexit then I will need *proof* of Aufenthaltsrecht (the right to stay here). That I wil be given residential permission is not in doubt, but this is a peice of paper which until now the British have not needed, but will very soon. The german government will only start the process of distributing hard copies of Aufenthaltrecht to all the UK citizens living in Germany once it is certain that the UK is leaving. They expect the full process to take 9 months. If I want a summer holiday in England (which I have already booked) then I will need to pester the German Foreign Office to be fast tracked (presumably as will almost all other Brits in Germany) and there is no guarantee that for a holiday the need to fast track will be accepted. The only other way to avoid this headache is if the Brexit date is pushed back beyond the start of August.
We'll be asking for a European to rule us and it'll be for the best.
I'm hoping for Donald Tusk.
I had a glorious day at the track on Wednesday. Met up with PtP and others, and scored an admirably consistent ZERO across the entire card...
Fortunately yesterday the fates smiled on me and I am back in the game.
Here are today's likely losers.
1:30 Sir Erec Hannon E/W
2:10 Whiskey Sour
2:50 Commander of Fleet
3:30 Clan Des Obeaux
4:10 Road to Rome
4:50 Not Another Muddle
5:30 Early Doors
I'd go for the Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskaitė I think she's got steel and doesn't do bullcrap.
I'm not sure what TM would do in the situation above. If MV3 falls, and the EU demand an absolute commitment to a referendum in return for a long delay, would she go for that (probably after MV4)? And even if she did, would they believe her?
In that circumstance, we'd probably have Farage winning 50 per cent of the UK EUparl seats, Bojo as Tory leader and Corbyn still sitting on his hands. Getting a referendum bill through parliament in those circumstances seems unlikely.
Spurs (x3)
Crystal Palace
Manchester United
Burnley
https://twitter.com/BSmith/status/1106520815435218945
If City do navigate this they'll be champions.
I wouldn't rule out a referendum on a referendum.
I missed the Parliamentary shenanigans yesterday. Did anything important happen?
Absolutely dreadful news from NZ.
@Big_G put it best when he said this:-
"Our family has great affection for New Zealand and especially Christchurch where our eldest son emigrated to 15 years ago and we have visited several times. Though our eldest son now lives in Vancouver he retains ties with friends and ex work colleagues there.
This attack is evil in it's purest form and we need as a Country, especially in light of Brexit, to make a concerted effort to bring all our communities together in total condemnation of all intolerance
I posted this on my facebook page this morning and know PB forum will join in our condolences and sympathy to all Kiwis
To all Kiwis
We have woken up to the horrific attacks in Christchurch and just cannot believe it. Tears are shed for that beautiful City, it's people and the whole Country. Such hatred is beyond belief and we must alll stand against the bigotted and twisted minds of those who think like this. May the Good Lord comfort all those affected and our prayers are for all Kiwis everywhere."
I cannot put it better.
Best of luck with the betting!
Dawkins is an often rude provocateur, but he's more of an equal opportunity religiophobe than islamophobe.
Farron at least got on TV occasionally and did stuff - even if no-one could quite remember his name.
Cable, by contrast, is totally invisible and, as far as I can tell, bone idle.
What’s in his diary each week?
Do you want to ruin the country & economy, split up the UK, and make Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin happy by Leaving the EU?
Yes or No.
I think the electoral commission will be happy with the neutrality of that question.
Independents: people I know who are switched onto politics (including two centrist Labour MPs who they might have fancied attracting) are pretty annoyed about their cynical pushing of the referendum against the wishes of the referendum campaigners - really obvious that they're more about damaging Labour than stopping Brexit. I think this will have passed most people by, but they then have the other problem that most people are starting to forget they exist.
Newport: not as sure as others that UKIP will collapse. If you're a pissed-off Brexiteer, they're a convenient message-bearer, regardless of who they put up and any details of what they say. They've never been about much more than the brand name, frankly.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/434110-trump-suggests-that-things-could-get-very-bad-if-military-police
“You know, the left plays a tougher game, it’s very funny," Trump said in the interview with Breitbart published on Wednesday. "I actually think that the people on the right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher."
"I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad,"...
Seriously - we'd have 6 in the champions league? Or would 4th place miss out?
DUP announce they are involved in on going and significant discussions with TM
Very interesting. Hopefully laying a pathway to endorse TM deal which would be a huge step