politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Osborne’s Standard has surely got this right – TMay is in offi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Osborne’s Standard has surely got this right – TMay is in office but not in power
Today’s ?@EveningStandard?: PM is in office but not in power – as rebels take control, EU offers delay and Chancellor again suggests compromise deal pic.twitter.com/BAbPHLSf9c
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Absolutely nailed it.0
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It has been the case for awhile with regards May.
He'd survive easily.dyedwoolie said:Time for a vote of no confidence in Bercow Baggins
That may well be sound, but no doubt many examples can be found of allowed amendments which had FA to do with the substantive motion. It could well be another example of right decision for wrong reason.AlastairMeeks said:The anti-referendum amendment had sweet FA to do with the substantive motion. Of course it shouldn't be called.
It does seem awfully random what will and won't be allowed, and I have no idea how he decides on these things (on things other than Brexit his own politics will be less apparent), but the rules seem to give him total discretion so that's that.
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Haha. That is a good one.Scott_P said:
Bercow is very much looking forward to being a remainer hero, but sometimes he can still be right about things of course.
A bit unkind. Perhaps it was for the joy of creating something than whether others would care for it?GIN1138 said:
You and Mr Poll Tax wanted to write a book?NickPalmer said:
A footnote is that Oliver used to be the thinking man's Brexiteer, to the point that we agreed to write a book together called "Double Vision on Europe", in which we'd agree what the facts were and put our alternative pro- and anti-EU views on what conclusion should be drawn (we spiked it when he was promoted to the Shadow Cabinet and no longer could express independent views). He's now in predominantly Remainer company, presumably because he shares their horror at No Deal.TheScreamingEagles said:
And who exactly did you think would be stupid enough to want to read it nevermind wasting their money buying it?0 -
I can't see the EU granting time for Benn, Cooper and Letwin to strut about like they mean something0
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I like this.kle4 said:It has been the case for awhile with regards May.
He'd survive easily.dyedwoolie said:Time for a vote of no confidence in Bercow Baggins
That may well be sound, but no doubt many examples can be found of allowed amendments which had FA to do with the substantive motion. It could well be another example of right decision for wrong reason.AlastairMeeks said:The anti-referendum amendment had sweet FA to do with the substantive motion. Of course it shouldn't be called.
It does seem awfully random what will and won't be allowed, and I have no idea how he decides on these things (on things other than Brexit his own politics will be less apparent), but the rules seem to give him total discretion so that's that.
Amendment to have a referendum - yeah ok that's relevant
Amendment not to have a referendum - no that's completely off topic.0 -
I understand TMays fixation on getting The Deal through. This is A Legacy Thing.
What looks better in the history books: “PM who slogged away for 2.5 turbulent years in No.10 to deliver a Brexit deal and open new chapter in history” or “PM who faffed about for 2.5 years in No.10 trying to get Brexit sorted but it turned out to be a massive waste of time and never happened.”
In the case of the former, she might go down in history as a mid-tier leader: deeply flawed but there for a purpose which she delivered. If the latter I’m afraid she probably joins the ranks of the very lowest, most useless and best-forgotten PMs.
The last roll of the dice she has to get this through next week is to explain that her successor will be negotiating the juicy bits - i.e the future relationship, and she will resign once Brexit goes through. She has done her duty and served her purpose. Leadership contest over summer, she does the prep-work on the future relationship in the background (but nothing substantive), new leader handover at conference. Lots of fixed smiled Tories waving her goodbye and well done (just please don’t come back).
Might not work, but blimey if I was in her position I think I’d be trying it. The alternative is pretty dismal.0 -
May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.0 -
I see Bercow has selected the Bryant no MV3 amendment - was odds on that he would!0
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TMay's doing a great job.
Once some doofus calls a referendum you take away the freedom of the government to do whatever it thinks best. She's made a reasonable stab at negotiating something that's as close to the promises made by the Leave campaign as the existence of an external reality will allow, and she's letting parliament decide whether it wants it, which it doesn't, because the promises made by the Leave campaign were retarded and the people involved are nuts.
In office but not in power is the correct positioning.0 -
What is the value of n (positive integer >2) in MVn at which the argument that you can't hold another referendum, because asking people the same question twice is anti democratic, starts to look a bit silly, given that electorate 2019 differs from electorate 2016 whereas the HoC is the same people all the time?0
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I think when people say that May always had an impossible job, they forget how high she was riding before she called the GE, and how many options she had before she drew her red lines.Sean_F said:
May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.0 -
Surely Labour won't vote with Wollaston? If Wollaston doesn't pass it's a huge setback for the people's vote. If it does though it's game on.0
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George is always right.0
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I don't think there's any solution unless you relax the constraint that n > 2.Ishmael_Z said:What is the value of n (positive integer >2) in MVn at which the argument that you can't hold another referendum, because asking people the same question twice is anti democratic, starts to look a bit silly, given that electorate 2019 differs from electorate 2016 whereas the HoC is the same people all the time?
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It's not huge because in distasteful parlance shooters are still active, and they are powerful shootersScott_P said:0 -
Then maybe she should call an election* and we can replace this lot with another lot who will agree on something.Sean_F said:
May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.
*I know FTPA, but the opposition can't really refuse, as we saw last time.0 -
Free vote, I guess?Brom said:Surely Labour won't vote with Wollaston? If Wollaston doesn't pass it's a huge setback for the people's vote. If it does though it's game on.
Weird for Wollaston to put it forward without Labour being on board though, especially since presumably one of the indicative votes next week would be for 2nd ref, if that goes through.
Only explanations I can think of are either:
1. TIG really believes that Labour will never whip for a 2nd ref
2. TIG cares more about embarrassing Corbyn than getting a 2nd ref.0 -
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I can see Bercow accepting MV3 but not MV4, on the basis that four times is stretching Erskine-May too far.
Which would be faintly hilarious if MV3 then fails narrowly.0 -
Tig know there's no parliament majority for it so they can propose on principleStereotomy said:
Free vote, I guess?Brom said:Surely Labour won't vote with Wollaston? If Wollaston doesn't pass it's a huge setback for the people's vote. If it does though it's game on.
Weird for Wollaston to put it forward without Labour being on board though, especially since presumably one of the indicative votes next week would be for 2nd ref, if that goes through.
Only explanations I can think of are either:
1. TIG really believes that Labour will never whip for a 2nd ref
2. TIG cares more about embarrassing Corbyn than getting a 2nd ref.0 -
Victim once more of thread expiry. May does have options but isn't willing to explore them.FF43 said:
Exactly and the number of Labour rebels seem to be holding steady. There are probably the numbers to pass a soft Brexit in the CU+SM space. May needs to change the Political Statement and she should get two thirds of her MPS and the bulk of Labour to support it. But it would split her party and so she sticks to Plan A to grim death.Pulpstar said:The DUP won't just flip because we're running out of time though.
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Wollaston amendment should show up the split in Labour.0
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Cheap shrunken heads and rugby 7s players!Scott_P said:0 -
Think he'll have to accept it if it fails narrowly. Momentum would be with May. But I have my doubts it will be that close judging by noises from ERG and DUP.El_Capitano said:I can see Bercow accepting MV3 but not MV4, on the basis that four times is stretching Erskine-May too far.
Which would be faintly hilarious if MV3 then fails narrowly.0 -
Yep, Corbyn was more conciliatory than he had to be in his reply last night.FF43 said:Victim once more of thread expiry. May does have options but isn't willing to explore them.
FF43 said:
Exactly and the number of Labour rebels seem to be holding steady. There are probably the numbers to pass a soft Brexit in the CU+SM space. May needs to change the Political Statement and she should get two thirds of her MPS and the bulk of Labour to support it. But it would split her party and so she sticks to Plan A to grim death.Pulpstar said:The DUP won't just flip because we're running out of time though.
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https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1106173307706109952
Are the ERG and the DUP just about to fold, only to find MV3 is ruled Out of Order?
Heart of Stone...0 -
Might be nothing but if DUP do switch that is big news.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1106173307706109952
Are the ERG and the DUP just about to fold, only to find MV3 is ruled Out of Order?
Heart of Stone...0 -
If the numbers are about there they will find a way to make it a different motion, done sort of functionary but meaningless changeScott_P said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1106173307706109952
Are the ERG and the DUP just about to fold, only to find MV3 is ruled Out of Order?
Heart of Stone...0 -
Only the thickest of ERGers wouldn't switch if the DUP do.0
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I would say other than Brexit, May is in power - she has a working majority over pretty much everyting else. Don't forget Osborne is a has-been, stuck in his newspaper gnawing the ends of his old plots, a toothless shadow trying and failing to regain some of his former substance.0
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Well if the House votes for it it saves him the controversial decision on if to reject MV3 himself.Scrapheap_as_was said:I see Bercow has selected the Bryant no MV3 amendment - was odds on that he would!
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Yes. Her original sin was the hubris with which she established her initial red lines. Even if Lab (as they no doubt would have) had dismissed an early appeal for a big tent approach, that she had made it would give a lot less cover for them voting against her deal now.Stereotomy said:
I think when people say that May always had an impossible job, they forget how high she was riding before she called the GE, and how many options she had before she drew her red lines.Sean_F said:
May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.0 -
Well, yes, her biggest mistake was failing to win an overall majority. It's not just that it meant lost votes in Parliament, but lost authority overall. Had she won 340 seats, things would be very different.Stereotomy said:
I think when people say that May always had an impossible job, they forget how high she was riding before she called the GE, and how many options she had before she drew her red lines.Sean_F said:
May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.0 -
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Bercow is now of either gender,
"The Chair does his or her best to facilitate debate and to allow the House to speak"
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A second vote will be just as legitimate as the first one - maybe more so given the shenanigans of that one. If you are instinctively Remain but think the government should get on with it and resent being asked again, you can vote Leave this time. If you are Leave, you will vote Leave. If at the end of all that, Remain wins, it's because people have collectively changed their minds. Democracy wins!Ishmael_Z said:What is the value of n (positive integer >2) in MVn at which the argument that you can't hold another referendum, because asking people the same question twice is anti democratic, starts to look a bit silly, given that electorate 2019 differs from electorate 2016 whereas the HoC is the same people all the time?
My objection with a second referendum is that the question doesn't get any more sensible by being asked twice. But that's a different issue.0 -
The world is full of books that few people want to read. The case for this one was that at the time (1998) all kinds of misleading statements about the EU were making it difficult to form an informed view. We felt we were forensic enough to agree what the facts were despite our diametrically opposed opinions, and lucid enough to suggest alternative conclusions for people to consider. I think there would have been an audience for it, but who knows?kle4 said:
A bit unkind. Perhaps it was for the joy of creating something than whether others would care for it?GIN1138 said:
You and Mr Poll Tax wanted to write a book?NickPalmer said:
A footnote is that Oliver used to be the thinking man's Brexiteer, to the point that we agreed to write a book together called "Double Vision on Europe", in which we'd agree what the facts were and put our alternative pro- and anti-EU views on what conclusion should be drawn (we spiked it when he was promoted to the Shadow Cabinet and no longer could express independent views). He's now in predominantly Remainer company, presumably because he shares their horror at No Deal.
And who exactly did you think would be stupid enough to want to read it nevermind wasting their money buying it?0 -
That's just politics; election setbacks happen all the time. Her biggest mistake was failing to appreciate that a solution would therefore have to lie outside her office and closest advisers. She only woke up to this simple truth relatively recently.Sean_F said:
Well, yes, her biggest mistake was failing to win an overall majority. It's not just that it meant lost votes in Parliament, but lost authority overall. Had she won 340 seats, things would be very different.Stereotomy said:
I think when people say that May always had an impossible job, they forget how high she was riding before she called the GE, and how many options she had before she drew her red lines.Sean_F said:
May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.0 -
Who cares what TMay's legacy is or whether the Tory or Labour parties stay together. It's time MPs thought about the UK and stopped worrying about such trivialities.numbertwelve said:I understand TMays fixation on getting The Deal through. This is A Legacy Thing.
What looks better in the history books: “PM who slogged away for 2.5 turbulent years in No.10 to deliver a Brexit deal and open new chapter in history” or “PM who faffed about for 2.5 years in No.10 trying to get Brexit sorted but it turned out to be a massive waste of time and never happened.”
In the case of the former, she might go down in history as a mid-tier leader: deeply flawed but there for a purpose which she delivered. If the latter I’m afraid she probably joins the ranks of the very lowest, most useless and best-forgotten PMs.
The last roll of the dice she has to get this through next week is to explain that her successor will be negotiating the juicy bits - i.e the future relationship, and she will resign once Brexit goes through. She has done her duty and served her purpose. Leadership contest over summer, she does the prep-work on the future relationship in the background (but nothing substantive), new leader handover at conference. Lots of fixed smiled Tories waving her goodbye and well done (just please don’t come back).
Might not work, but blimey if I was in her position I think I’d be trying it. The alternative is pretty dismal.0 -
Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today0
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A male Bercow would be a Berbull, or perhaps a Bersteer.TrèsDifficile said:Bercow is now of either gender,
"The Chair does his or her best to facilitate debate and to allow the House to speak"0 -
Caroline Flint stood up on a point of order and angrily demanded it was voted downBrom said:Surely Labour won't vote with Wollaston? If Wollaston doesn't pass it's a huge setback for the people's vote. If it does though it's game on.
Not sure what it has to do with a point of order but the numbers should see it lose with all but 10 or so conservatives + the DUP + 30 + labour mps0 -
EU summit is on the 21st and is pretty much the last chance to get an extension, as all the 27 are in the same room. After that it would be far more difficult and improbable.Scott_P said:0 -
TMay.logical_song said:
Who cares what TMay's legacy is or whether the Tory or Labour parties stay together. It's time MPs thought about the UK and stopped worrying about such trivialities.numbertwelve said:I understand TMays fixation on getting The Deal through. This is A Legacy Thing.
What looks better in the history books: “PM who slogged away for 2.5 turbulent years in No.10 to deliver a Brexit deal and open new chapter in history” or “PM who faffed about for 2.5 years in No.10 trying to get Brexit sorted but it turned out to be a massive waste of time and never happened.”
In the case of the former, she might go down in history as a mid-tier leader: deeply flawed but there for a purpose which she delivered. If the latter I’m afraid she probably joins the ranks of the very lowest, most useless and best-forgotten PMs.
The last roll of the dice she has to get this through next week is to explain that her successor will be negotiating the juicy bits - i.e the future relationship, and she will resign once Brexit goes through. She has done her duty and served her purpose. Leadership contest over summer, she does the prep-work on the future relationship in the background (but nothing substantive), new leader handover at conference. Lots of fixed smiled Tories waving her goodbye and well done (just please don’t come back).
Might not work, but blimey if I was in her position I think I’d be trying it. The alternative is pretty dismal.
All PMs care about their legacy. One of the central attractions of having held the Top Job is having something to show for it at the end of the day, once you’re gone.0 -
Extension question which I think is even more interesting:Ishmael_Z said:What is the value of n (positive integer >2) in MVn at which the argument that you can't hold another referendum, because asking people the same question twice is anti democratic, starts to look a bit silly, given that electorate 2019 differs from electorate 2016 whereas the HoC is the same people all the time?
Find minimum value of n where there exists an MP i where MVn(i) = against but MV(n-1)(i) = for.
i.e. how many times can May bring the deal back before MPs start getting so fed up they move *away* from supporting it?0 -
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Bercow pouring petrol onto voters and lighting the match.
Incredible scenes. GE getting more likely.
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It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.HYUFD said:Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today
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On topic:- thanks to OGH for allowing me one last chance for some schadenfreude before the next YouGov poll comes out showing a 15% Tory lead.0
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I commented on this earlier this morning. Good to see Laura keeping up !!!!!Brom said:
Might be nothing but if DUP do switch that is big news.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1106173307706109952
Are the ERG and the DUP just about to fold, only to find MV3 is ruled Out of Order?
Heart of Stone...0 -
Beginning to look best to leave running the country to faceless unelected EU bureaucrats than our House of Commons... let's give back control!Sean_F said:
It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.HYUFD said:Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today
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More or less than a dozen?Pulpstar said:Only the thickest of ERGers wouldn't switch if the DUP do.
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Is she a double-agent?Pulpstar said:Wollaston amendment should show up the split in Labour.
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He comes out attacking her on his front page every day.0
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But other EU countries saying noHYUFD said:Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today
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I can’t believe we time out in almost exactly 2 weeks time.Sean_F said:
It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.HYUFD said:Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today
That will go in a heartbeat.0 -
They have to switch. A No Deal Brexit would destroy them.Brom said:
Might be nothing but if DUP do switch that is big news.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1106173307706109952
Are the ERG and the DUP just about to fold, only to find MV3 is ruled Out of Order?
Heart of Stone...
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Hopefully he didn't release his gender fluids all over the HouseTrèsDifficile said:Bercow is now of either gender,
"The Chair does his or her best to facilitate debate and to allow the House to speak"
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Control is passing to a cabal of unrepresentative MPs and a speaker who are hell bent on ignoring the referendum.Sean_F said:
It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.HYUFD said:Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today
Good luck to anyone trying to run the country if they succeed.
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Her closest advisors were a big part of the reason why she didn’t get the seats.TOPPING said:
That's just politics; election setbacks happen all the time. Her biggest mistake was failing to appreciate that a solution would therefore have to lie outside her office and closest advisers. She only woke up to this simple truth relatively recently.Sean_F said:
Well, yes, her biggest mistake was failing to win an overall majority. It's not just that it meant lost votes in Parliament, but lost authority overall. Had she won 340 seats, things would be very different.Stereotomy said:
I think when people say that May always had an impossible job, they forget how high she was riding before she called the GE, and how many options she had before she drew her red lines.Sean_F said:
May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.0 -
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Grab the popcorn !Scott_P said:0 -
or BELIEVE HARDER.Scott_P said:0 -
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She did make that appealTOPPING said:
Yes. Her original sin was the hubris with which she established her initial red lines. Even if Lab (as they no doubt would have) had dismissed an early appeal for a big tent approach, that she had made it would give a lot less cover for them voting against her deal now.Stereotomy said:
I think when people say that May always had an impossible job, they forget how high she was riding before she called the GE, and how many options she had before she drew her red lines.Sean_F said:
May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.
I think Corbyn emailed her the Labour manifesto and said he would be delighted to help her implement the attached programme0 -
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Nah, the HoC is accurately reflecting a British public lost, conflicted and confused about the fiasco of Brexit.TGOHF said:
Control is passing to a cabal of unrepresentative MPs and a speaker who are hell bent on ignoring the referendum.Sean_F said:
It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.HYUFD said:Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today
Good luck to anyone trying to run the country if they succeed.0 -
As I feared the TIG are showing themselves up to be rather smug and hectoring extreme centrists.Pulpstar said:Wollaston amendment should show up the split in Labour.
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Disagree - the public want Brexit over. The HoC wants to can kick forever rather than take a decision.Foxy said:
Nah, the HoC is accurately reflecting a British public lost, conflicted and confused about the fiasco of Brexit.TGOHF said:
Control is passing to a cabal of unrepresentative MPs and a speaker who are hell bent on ignoring the referendum.Sean_F said:
It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.HYUFD said:Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today
Good luck to anyone trying to run the country if they succeed.0 -
Bercow spent some time this morning admiring himself in the mirror, saying "He or she is the hero or heroine of Remain"
'He says his decision on which amendments to pick "followed considerable reflection" this morning.'0 -
Mrs May cares!logical_song said:
Who cares what TMay's legacy is or whether the Tory or Labour parties stay together. It's time MPs thought about the UK and stopped worrying about such trivialities.numbertwelve said:I understand TMays fixation on getting The Deal through. This is A Legacy Thing.
What looks better in the history books: “PM who slogged away for 2.5 turbulent years in No.10 to deliver a Brexit deal and open new chapter in history” or “PM who faffed about for 2.5 years in No.10 trying to get Brexit sorted but it turned out to be a massive waste of time and never happened.”
In the case of the former, she might go down in history as a mid-tier leader: deeply flawed but there for a purpose which she delivered. If the latter I’m afraid she probably joins the ranks of the very lowest, most useless and best-forgotten PMs.
The last roll of the dice she has to get this through next week is to explain that her successor will be negotiating the juicy bits - i.e the future relationship, and she will resign once Brexit goes through. She has done her duty and served her purpose. Leadership contest over summer, she does the prep-work on the future relationship in the background (but nothing substantive), new leader handover at conference. Lots of fixed smiled Tories waving her goodbye and well done (just please don’t come back).
Might not work, but blimey if I was in her position I think I’d be trying it. The alternative is pretty dismal.0 -
that is one of the best oxymorons I have ever heardCasino_Royale said:
As I feared the TIG are showing themselves up to be rather smug and hectoring extreme centrists.Pulpstar said:Wollaston amendment should show up the split in Labour.
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John Redwood, one of the original 'bastards' of Major's day, might be the vote that brings down the government. Plus ca change...Scott_P said:0 -
My guess is that a conditional decision would be taken at the summit to approve a 2 month/2 year/whatever extension if circumstance X comes about before 10.59pm on Fri 29th. (eg "the council approves a 2 month administrative extension if the UK HoC has approved a deal before exit"; "the council approves an extension until Dec 31 2020 if the UK HoC casts a binding vote to call a referendum" etc etc). In any case, as Greece found out, a quick conference call does the trick in extremis.viewcode said:
EU summit is on the 21st and is pretty much the last chance to get an extension, as all the 27 are in the same room. After that it would be far more difficult and improbable.Scott_P said:
Have the whips yet advised MPs to cancel their constituency engagements that night?!!!0 -
Or that n is real. I think that imaginary numbers apply here.Stereotomy said:
I don't think there's any solution unless you relax the constraint that n > 2.Ishmael_Z said:What is the value of n (positive integer >2) in MVn at which the argument that you can't hold another referendum, because asking people the same question twice is anti democratic, starts to look a bit silly, given that electorate 2019 differs from electorate 2016 whereas the HoC is the same people all the time?
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GE would giveTheScreamingEagles said:
I predicted that this morning.
The ERG are sub Mark Reckless traitors.
* New Con leader
* Destruction of TIG
* A slew of wet deselections
* Low chance of a Lab majority
* New speaker
* Fewer Nats
A far better scenario
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They may not have the numbers. The lib dems and TIG do not want an election nor do others who may well absent themselves. Also each one would have the whip withdrawn immediately and would have to stand as an independentTheScreamingEagles said:
Futhermore, this only goes through with DUP support so they would not have that either0 -
Why do you assume losing a VONC would lead to a general election? The House of Commons could just form a new government without the ERG.TGOHF said:
GE would giveTheScreamingEagles said:
I predicted that this morning.
The ERG are sub Mark Reckless traitors.
* New Con leader
* Destruction of TIG
* A slew of wet deselections
* Low chance of a Lab majority
* New speaker
* Fewer Nats
A far better scenario0 -
Corbyn would love the TIG and Lib Dems propping up the Tories.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They may not have the numbers. The lib dems and TIG do not want an election nor do others who may well absent themselves. Also each one would have the whip withdrawn immediately and would have to stand as an independentTheScreamingEagles said:
Futhermore, this only goes through with DUP support so they would not have that either0 -
Government of national unity? I think that’s very unlikely given how far apart the two parties are.williamglenn said:
Why do you assume losing a VONC would lead to a general election? The House of Commons could just form a new government without the ERG.TGOHF said:
GE would giveTheScreamingEagles said:
I predicted that this morning.
The ERG are sub Mark Reckless traitors.
* New Con leader
* Destruction of TIG
* A slew of wet deselections
* Low chance of a Lab majority
* New speaker
* Fewer Nats
A far better scenario0 -
Oh jauk, jouk, neuk, souk, wauk or yeuk?Scott_P said:0 -
You’re missing the more plausible outcome.TGOHF said:
GE would giveTheScreamingEagles said:
I predicted that this morning.
The ERG are sub Mark Reckless traitors.
* New Con leader
* Destruction of TIG
* A slew of wet deselections
* Low chance of a Lab majority
* New speaker
* Fewer Nats
A far better scenario
No general election and Corbyn installed as PM promising to keep us in the customs union0 -
O/T (except as an illustration of the quality of stock roaming the corridors of power).
A novel approach to tackling knife-crime; stick with the comments for the entertainment..
https://twitter.com/scottmann4NC/status/11061289064809512960 -
Yes, but the public (like Parliament) wants it over in different ways!TGOHF said:
Disagree - the public want Brexit over. The HoC wants to can kick forever rather than take a decision.Foxy said:
Nah, the HoC is accurately reflecting a British public lost, conflicted and confused about the fiasco of Brexit.TGOHF said:
Control is passing to a cabal of unrepresentative MPs and a speaker who are hell bent on ignoring the referendum.Sean_F said:
It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.HYUFD said:Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today
Good luck to anyone trying to run the country if they succeed.
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We are rewriting the rulebook if Conservative MPs will not vote to sustain a Conservative government.Scott_P said:0 -
The fact that I don't remember this and that it hasn't been used by May, for example at every PMQs since, is indicative of the problem.Charles said:
She did make that appealTOPPING said:
Yes. Her original sin was the hubris with which she established her initial red lines. Even if Lab (as they no doubt would have) had dismissed an early appeal for a big tent approach, that she had made it would give a lot less cover for them voting against her deal now.Stereotomy said:
I think when people say that May always had an impossible job, they forget how high she was riding before she called the GE, and how many options she had before she drew her red lines.Sean_F said:
May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.
I think Corbyn emailed her the Labour manifesto and said he would be delighted to help her implement the attached programme0 -
It is always amusing when people irrationally claim to know the mind of the public (or worse, "the people"). It is though "the public" is actually some kind of super-mind, like Lovelock's earth in the Gaia principle. it is complete nonsense. "The People" do not exist, just a lot of confused individuals, some with logic, some without.TGOHF said:
Disagree - the public want Brexit over. The HoC wants to can kick forever rather than take a decision.Foxy said:
Nah, the HoC is accurately reflecting a British public lost, conflicted and confused about the fiasco of Brexit.TGOHF said:
Control is passing to a cabal of unrepresentative MPs and a speaker who are hell bent on ignoring the referendum.Sean_F said:
It seems to me that control is passing to nobody.HYUFD said:Control of the process is now clearly passing to Parliament as last night's votes show and for some sort of CU and SM BINO, Tusk has also signalled the EU would grant a lengthy extension if the UK shifted in that direction today
Good luck to anyone trying to run the country if they succeed.0 -
Given the unpunished rebellion by cabinet ministers yesterday, this is hardly unexpected.numbertwelve said:
We are rewriting the rulebook if Conservative MPs will not vote to sustain a Conservative government.Scott_P said:0 -
I suspect it allows him to rely on the fact Betty Boothroyd did so he doesn't have toTrèsDifficile said:Bercow is now of either gender,
"The Chair does his or her best to facilitate debate and to allow the House to speak" 0 -
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Yep, we've already had Tories crossing the floor and cabinet members abstaining on key votes. We're a long way past normal circumstances.tlg86 said:
Given the unpunished rebellion by cabinet ministers yesterday, this is hardly unexpected.numbertwelve said:
We are rewriting the rulebook if Conservative MPs will not vote to sustain a Conservative government.Scott_P said:0
