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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Osborne’s Standard has surely got this right – TMay is in offi

Today’s ?@EveningStandard?: PM is in office but not in power – as rebels take control, EU offers delay and Chancellor again suggests compromise deal pic.twitter.com/BAbPHLSf9c
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It does seem awfully random what will and won't be allowed, and I have no idea how he decides on these things (on things other than Brexit his own politics will be less apparent), but the rules seem to give him total discretion so that's that.
Bercow is very much looking forward to being a remainer hero, but sometimes he can still be right about things of course. A bit unkind. Perhaps it was for the joy of creating something than whether others would care for it?
Amendment to have a referendum - yeah ok that's relevant
Amendment not to have a referendum - no that's completely off topic.
What looks better in the history books: “PM who slogged away for 2.5 turbulent years in No.10 to deliver a Brexit deal and open new chapter in history” or “PM who faffed about for 2.5 years in No.10 trying to get Brexit sorted but it turned out to be a massive waste of time and never happened.”
In the case of the former, she might go down in history as a mid-tier leader: deeply flawed but there for a purpose which she delivered. If the latter I’m afraid she probably joins the ranks of the very lowest, most useless and best-forgotten PMs.
The last roll of the dice she has to get this through next week is to explain that her successor will be negotiating the juicy bits - i.e the future relationship, and she will resign once Brexit goes through. She has done her duty and served her purpose. Leadership contest over summer, she does the prep-work on the future relationship in the background (but nothing substantive), new leader handover at conference. Lots of fixed smiled Tories waving her goodbye and well done (just please don’t come back).
Might not work, but blimey if I was in her position I think I’d be trying it. The alternative is pretty dismal.
May has faults, but let's face it, even Cicero or Pericles would fail to get this lot to agree on anything.
Once some doofus calls a referendum you take away the freedom of the government to do whatever it thinks best. She's made a reasonable stab at negotiating something that's as close to the promises made by the Leave campaign as the existence of an external reality will allow, and she's letting parliament decide whether it wants it, which it doesn't, because the promises made by the Leave campaign were retarded and the people involved are nuts.
In office but not in power is the correct positioning.
https://twitter.com/ianssmart/status/1106170677307105280
*I know FTPA, but the opposition can't really refuse, as we saw last time.
Weird for Wollaston to put it forward without Labour being on board though, especially since presumably one of the indicative votes next week would be for 2nd ref, if that goes through.
Only explanations I can think of are either:
1. TIG really believes that Labour will never whip for a 2nd ref
2. TIG cares more about embarrassing Corbyn than getting a 2nd ref.
Which would be faintly hilarious if MV3 then fails narrowly.
Are the ERG and the DUP just about to fold, only to find MV3 is ruled Out of Order?
Heart of Stone...
"The Chair does his or her best to facilitate debate and to allow the House to speak"
My objection with a second referendum is that the question doesn't get any more sensible by being asked twice. But that's a different issue.
Not sure what it has to do with a point of order but the numbers should see it lose with all but 10 or so conservatives + the DUP + 30 + labour mps
All PMs care about their legacy. One of the central attractions of having held the Top Job is having something to show for it at the end of the day, once you’re gone.
Find minimum value of n where there exists an MP i where MVn(i) = against but MV(n-1)(i) = for.
i.e. how many times can May bring the deal back before MPs start getting so fed up they move *away* from supporting it?
Incredible scenes. GE getting more likely.
That will go in a heartbeat.
Good luck to anyone trying to run the country if they succeed.
I think Corbyn emailed her the Labour manifesto and said he would be delighted to help her implement the attached programme
The ERG are sub Mark Reckless traitors.
'He says his decision on which amendments to pick "followed considerable reflection" this morning.'
Have the whips yet advised MPs to cancel their constituency engagements that night?!!!
* New Con leader
* Destruction of TIG
* A slew of wet deselections
* Low chance of a Lab majority
* New speaker
* Fewer Nats
A far better scenario
Futhermore, this only goes through with DUP support so they would not have that either
No general election and Corbyn installed as PM promising to keep us in the customs union
A novel approach to tackling knife-crime; stick with the comments for the entertainment..
https://twitter.com/scottmann4NC/status/1106128906480951296
https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1105875603163627520