politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In all of this 2019 remains betting favourite for “year of nex

Pro_Rata said:

I'm trying to piece together how this progresses based on today's vote and May's Tuesday night statement:

1. Today's vote: technical vote acknowledging and agreeing drivers for extension, but not forcing it. Amendment to full blown vote then rejection .possible.
2. SIs removing No Deal default as much as practicable from UK legislation. (Gov whip for, poss Fri sitting?)
3. MV3, acknowledging change of circumstances by removal of no deal
4. If MV3 fails, indicative rule in/out votes on extension reasons - e.g further negotiation around current WA, switch to CU, Second Referendum on current options. Preferred option selected.
(Here by 21/3!!!)
5. Ask EU for extension, if fails.....
6. MV4: explicitly stating that revocation will be result of MV4 failure.
7. If MV4 passes, second request for technical extension. Surely granted!!

Thoughts?

Maybe. But I suspect 2 won't happen until something's changed at A50 level.

And while the reality of the situation (ie May still thinks the deal is alive) might dictate such a timetable, I remain to be convinced that losses of 200+ and 149 are overturnable. Even if 70 MPs are willing to come up with a convincing excuse for 180deg turn, will another 5 - without a remainer leak at the other end?

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Tories to benefit from a Boris Brexit Bounce?

The likeliest Brexit outcome now is probably the Commons votes for extension and SM and Customs Union BINO, in which case Boris might be needed to stop Tory Leavers leaking to the Brexit Party and UKIP

For about the thousandth time, you do not get to “SM,CU and BINO” without voting for the withdrawal agreement. The WA is the WA, the rest is the future trading Agreement.

You do if extension and the EU makes the appropriate tweaks to the WA to accept the fact the Commons has voted to stay in the single market and Customs Union with free movement etc (EU immigration has fallen since the vote anyway)

2.8 for a GE in 2019 looks to me like one of the best bets out there. There are so many different ways in which it could come about.

Harris_Tweed said:

Pro_Rata said:

I'm trying to piece together how this progresses based on today's vote and May's Tuesday night statement:

1. Today's vote: technical vote acknowledging and agreeing drivers for extension, but not forcing it. Amendment to full blown vote then rejection .possible.
2. SIs removing No Deal default as much as practicable from UK legislation. (Gov whip for, poss Fri sitting?)
3. MV3, acknowledging change of circumstances by removal of no deal
4. If MV3 fails, indicative rule in/out votes on extension reasons - e.g further negotiation around current WA, switch to CU, Second Referendum on current options. Preferred option selected.
(Here by 21/3!!!)
5. Ask EU for extension, if fails.....
6. MV4: explicitly stating that revocation will be result of MV4 failure.
7. If MV4 passes, second request for technical extension. Surely granted!!

Thoughts?

Maybe. But I suspect 2 won't happen until something's changed at A50 level.

And while the reality of the situation (ie May still thinks the deal is alive) might dictate such a timetable, I remain to be convinced that losses of 200+ and 149 are overturnable. Even if 70 MPs are willing to come up with a convincing excuse for 180deg turn, will another 5 - without a remainer leak at the other end?

I wondered where to put the SIs, I plumped for early in the end as I thought they might represent a mind focusser for MV3.

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1106125904298852352

Please...just make it stop....

Takes us pass the 2022 general election allowing a party to win GE2022 on a Remain pledge.

Works for me.

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1106125904298852352

Please...just make it stop....

Playing devils advocate, if that included trade deal negotiations then in theory you could get away with running with this rather than agreeing the WA and The Backstop Of Doom, surely?

Barnesian said:

We, the people, are hypocrites really.

We demand the meat but are disgusted by what goes on in the abattoir.

We demand a result but are disgusted by the bloody mess in parliament.

And as for the sausage making process...

Ishmael_Z said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1105933114013036544

This is absolute tosh but presumably it makes you feel better about being undemocratic.

Stopping a No Deal Brexit honours the referendum result.

My piece on Sunday has over 100 links to Vote Leave saying No Deal wouldn’t happen.

No it doesn't. The vote was to leave. The argument is or should be how and on what terms not if.

I don't want a no deal Brexit but it reflects the vote far more than remaining. It is absurd to say otherwise. Your logic is that people were unable to recognise that there was a risk that we would be unable to come to a satisfactory deal with the EU. I just don't believe that. They may have thought the risk was much smaller than it has turned out but they must have realised that nothing was guaranteed except leaving.

No, the vote was advisory. That's what the Act says, and obiter dicta from anyone during the campaign don't alter that fact. Ignoring the advice altogether would dishonour the result, but that hasn't happened. Everyone has thought about nothing else for nearly three years so there is no case for saying it hasn't been carefully considered. "Sorry we've thought long and hard and concluded it can't be done" is now a perfectly sensible and democratic position to take.

Except that it could have been done.
It could have been done fairly easily - just not after the Leave campaign and what it decided to major on, though.

Step one - agree to leave to EEA/EFTA and negotiate a temporary customs agreement to sort out Northern Ireland. If necessary, that we'd remain in the Customs Union until and only until we sort out a technological solution for the NI border.

Could have been agreed in months. We then action it and at that point, we'd have been out of the EU. Well ahead of the two year deadline (remember, A50 says "when an agreement is signed OR two years have elapsed").

Gets us out of the ECJ, huge swathes of the EU acquis, reduces payments a long way, permanently takes us out of ever-closer-union, gives us a straightforward route to other trade deals... but involves keeping Freedom of Movement. After the Leave campaign, the latter was off the table, and we were led by someone obsessed with immigration, so we ended up stuck where we are.

Without the standards alignment and regulatory scrutiny alignment of the Single Market, the border issue in NI becomes orders of magnitude more difficult, and this is why the issue is so intractable.

numbertwelve said:

So, a thought on MV3 (groan).

We know, for instance, that some in the ERG, appear to be so purist/idiotic (take your pick, I know which one i’d go for) as to just keep voting against The Deal whether it means a long delay, no Brexit, the Earth crashing into the sun or whatever. I’m thinking Francois, how many others - maybe 10 in all?

So that instantly wipes the Tory majority and with the DUP 10 voting against pretty much acts as a blocker. Would the odd Labour MP supporting mitigate for this? I’m doubtful. They only got 3 last time, but I guess it depends how much minds are concentrated.

The key to unlocking all this seems to be somehow getting the DUP to at least abstain. Erm, answers on a postcard how Mrs May does that?

^This. I still don't see where the numbers are for (This) Deal.

And after the No Deal and Extension votes, I suspect some BINO/remainers may peel off the other end too.

Hard to know whether a four-year extension would destroy Labour or the Conservatives first. The Lib Dems and TIG would love it.

El_Capitano said:

Hard to know whether a four-year extension would destroy Labour or the Conservatives first. The Lib Dems and TIG would love it.

The Conservatives.

another_richard said:

FPT

nico67 said:

The country has gone mad .

Leavers ringing up radio stations saying MPs wanting to leave with a deal are betraying the public . So people not wanting to harm the country are now public enemy number one . Some MPs being called traitors for supporting Mays deal . It’s astonishing , now an orderly exit isn’t good enough and for some only complete carnage and a total rupture with the EU will do .

And apparently this is what they voted for in 2016 , which is a disgraceful revisioning and clearly now the ERG death cult has instructed its followers they have followed like Borg drones trying to take the country over the cliff .

And people wonder why Remainers might be just a little pissed off . Yes fine leave but for heavens sake do it sensibly with a deal.

For the death culters chaos is catharsis.

This could be Mark Francois:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEj1h7BC2b4

Not exactly - this was Peter Ustinov...
"World government is not only possible, it is inevitable, and when it comes, it will appeal to patriotism in its truest, in its only sense, the patriotism of men who love their national heritages so deeply that they wish to preserve them in safety for the common good"

numbertwelve said:

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1106125904298852352

Please...just make it stop....

Playing devils advocate, if that included trade deal negotiations then in theory you could get away with running with this rather than agreeing the WA and The Backstop Of Doom, surely?

And they have said no additional sums to the £39 billion in the extension period....

Yeah, right.....

tlg86 said:

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1106125904298852352

Please...just make it stop....

My dad predicted five years - his thinking that it would tie in with the parliamentary term.

And the budget cycle. From the EU's point of view it's actually quite a reasonable stipulation.

Pulpstar said:

El_Capitano said:

Hard to know whether a four-year extension would destroy Labour or the Conservatives first. The Lib Dems and TIG would love it.

It would destroy the Conservatives. There aren't enough true labour brexiteers in parliament for it to be a major issue, but there are plenty of Tories.

It’s not so much a formal leave/remain split that could do for Labour.

Corbyn is desperate to move on from Brexit and get on to his redistribution agenda. A four year extension means no moving on.

At that point, what’s the point of Corbyn? Corbynites can’t get anywhere on their policy issues because Brexit still dominates. Moderates can’t get anywhere on Brexit because Corbyn is the leader.

So we end up with either a serious leadership contest (think Yvette Cooper rather than Owen Smith), or more TIG-type defections, or a party dwindling further into irrelevance.

Four year extension would be superb for business. Can forget about it for a while and get on with doing deals, employing people and investing.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1106125904298852352

Please...just make it stop....

Takes us pass the 2022 general election allowing a party to win GE2022 on a Remain pledge.

Works for me.

Not the tories then?

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

Boris Johnson, Margaret Thatcher...

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

tlg86 said:

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1106125904298852352

Please...just make it stop....

My dad predicted five years - his thinking that it would tie in with the parliamentary term.

And the budget cycle. From the EU's point of view it's actually quite a reasonable stipulation.

How much will sterling go up by if we have a 4 year extension lol

To $1.40 I'd have thought, maybe more.

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

A lot of people in 1979. It was regarded completely differently and as not particularly serious if the victims were boys,

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

So did Thatcher apparently.

Margaret Thatcher personally protected a senior Conservative MP who was under suspicion of abusing children, according to MI5 files disclosed to a public inquiry.

Sir Peter Morrison featured in a series of internal Security Service memos written during 1986-87 about his alleged “interest in small boys”.

Despite MI5’s concerns — which were primarily about any risk to national security rather than the welfare of children — the MP for Chester served as a junior minister, then Tory party deputy chairman and eventually Mrs Thatcher’s parliamentary private secretary.

Five documents about Morrison, who died in 1995, were found in MI5 files during a trawl of archives for information relevant to the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA).

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c1bad844-4450-11e9-bfd2-5b366418ffd1

Mr. Nabavi, more recently than that. Rotherham springs to mind.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

A lot of people in 1979. It was regarded completely differently and as not particularly serious if the victims were boys,

That might have been the view in the circles David Steel moved in but for much of the country it would have got the perpetrator labelled as a nonce and his head would have been kicked in.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

tlg86 said:

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1106125904298852352

Please...just make it stop....

My dad predicted five years - his thinking that it would tie in with the parliamentary term.

And the budget cycle. From the EU's point of view it's actually quite a reasonable stipulation.

How much will sterling go up by if we have a 4 year extension lol

To $1.40 I'd have thought, maybe more.

That would help increase the trade deficit.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

So did Thatcher apparently.

Margaret Thatcher personally protected a senior Conservative MP who was under suspicion of abusing children, according to MI5 files disclosed to a public inquiry.

Sir Peter Morrison featured in a series of internal Security Service memos written during 1986-87 about his alleged “interest in small boys”.

Despite MI5’s concerns — which were primarily about any risk to national security rather than the welfare of children — the MP for Chester served as a junior minister, then Tory party deputy chairman and eventually Mrs Thatcher’s parliamentary private secretary.

Five documents about Morrison, who died in 1995, were found in MI5 files during a trawl of archives for information relevant to the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA).

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c1bad844-4450-11e9-bfd2-5b366418ffd1

A huge black mark against her then.

Forgot the most important quote.

A 1986 memo, written by Eliza Manningham-Buller, who later became director general of MI5, disclosed that she had met Morrison socially and discussed the allegations against him. She reported: “The prime minister was aware of it and was supporting Peter.”

TheScreamingEagles said:

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

So did Thatcher apparently.

Margaret Thatcher personally protected a senior Conservative MP who was under suspicion of abusing children, according to MI5 files disclosed to a public inquiry.

Sir Peter Morrison featured in a series of internal Security Service memos written during 1986-87 about his alleged “interest in small boys”.

Despite MI5’s concerns — which were primarily about any risk to national security rather than the welfare of children — the MP for Chester served as a junior minister, then Tory party deputy chairman and eventually Mrs Thatcher’s parliamentary private secretary.

Five documents about Morrison, who died in 1995, were found in MI5 files during a trawl of archives for information relevant to the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA).

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c1bad844-4450-11e9-bfd2-5b366418ffd1

I'm surprised that's never become a bigger scandal.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

A lot of people in 1979. It was regarded completely differently and as not particularly serious if the victims were boys,

Exactly. There were all sorts of rumours about all sorts of people but it was not seen as a very serious issue. Jokes about priests and choirboys were commonplace, the idea that there was a massive cover-up is misplaced, everyone knew it went on but it was not deliberately covered up, it was just not seen as worthy of much attention unless it was particularly egregious. The modern contention that this kind of abuse has a permanent, lifetime impact would not have been given much credence.

I don't want to put ideas into Tories' heads re. whomsoever is their particular bête noire in their idiocracy, but...

'Witnesses said Cali's killer shot him at least six times and then ran him over before fleeing the scene.'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47566382

another_richard said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

A lot of people in 1979. It was regarded completely differently and as not particularly serious if the victims were boys,

That might have been the view in the circles David Steel moved in but for much of the country it would have got the perpetrator labelled as a nonce and his head would have been kicked in.

Attitudes were different then. The activities of national treasures like David Bowie, John Peel and perhaps a few others in the music business in the Sixties would be much less tolerated nowadays.

Scoutmasters, vicars and school teachers molesting boys were frequent topics of jokes back in the day. We have become less liberal in somethings over time, and appropriately so in this case.

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

So did Thatcher apparently.

Margaret Thatcher personally protected a senior Conservative MP who was under suspicion of abusing children, according to MI5 files disclosed to a public inquiry.

Sir Peter Morrison featured in a series of internal Security Service memos written during 1986-87 about his alleged “interest in small boys”.

Despite MI5’s concerns — which were primarily about any risk to national security rather than the welfare of children — the MP for Chester served as a junior minister, then Tory party deputy chairman and eventually Mrs Thatcher’s parliamentary private secretary.

Five documents about Morrison, who died in 1995, were found in MI5 files during a trawl of archives for information relevant to the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA).

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c1bad844-4450-11e9-bfd2-5b366418ffd1

I'm surprised that's never become a bigger scandal.

it's about to be. How many more escaped scrutiny?

Hopefully it is not too late to get at least a rough picture of whether (how many) of these people were actually paedophiles.

anothernick said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

A lot of people in 1979. It was regarded completely differently and as not particularly serious if the victims were boys,

Exactly. There were all sorts of rumours about all sorts of people but it was not seen as a very serious issue. Jokes about priests and choirboys were commonplace, the idea that there was a massive cover-up is misplaced, everyone knew it went on but it was not deliberately covered up, it was just not seen as worthy of much attention unless it was particularly egregious. The modern contention that this kind of abuse has a permanent, lifetime impact would not have been given much credence.

"modern contention"???!

anothernick said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

A lot of people in 1979. It was regarded completely differently and as not particularly serious if the victims were boys,

Exactly. There were all sorts of rumours about all sorts of people but it was not seen as a very serious issue. Jokes about priests and choirboys were commonplace, the idea that there was a massive cover-up is misplaced, everyone knew it went on but it was not deliberately covered up, it was just not seen as worthy of much attention unless it was particularly egregious. The modern contention that this kind of abuse has a permanent, lifetime impact would not have been given much credence.

Anybody that gave a moment's consideration to the idea of boys being buggered by the mountain of lard that was Cyril Smith might just have come to the view that yes, that would fucking well scar you for life.

I hope in another existence, David Steel gets fastened by a chain to Jabba the Hutt, to be his carnal plaything for all eternity.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Until Brexit is resolved a general election solves nothing and an election campaign takes us well past Brexit day and the Commons had to make a decision both on an extension and as the EU will demand what it wants to do with an extension of Article 50 before then

Agree - a GE just now is impossible with neither of the two main parties having a settled view on brexit

Morning G, FPT, all is well though weather still windy with alternating sunshine and downpours. A day for indoors for sure.

DavidL said:

What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

Steel finally admitting what everyone knew shows up how devious and nasty these politicians are and always have been, everything they do is for self gain and climbing greasy pole in the party and conceal anything that can hurt them/party.

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Until Brexit is resolved a general election solves nothing and an election campaign takes us well past Brexit day and the Commons had to make a decision both on an extension and as the EU will demand what it wants to do with an extension of Article 50 before then

Agree - a GE just now is impossible with neither of the two main parties having a settled view on brexit

Morning G, FPT, all is well though weather still windy with alternating sunshine and downpours. A day for indoors for sure.

Similar here Malc

TheWhiteRabbit said:

anothernick said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

A lot of people in 1979. It was regarded completely differently and as not particularly serious if the victims were boys,

Exactly. There were all sorts of rumours about all sorts of people but it was not seen as a very serious issue. Jokes about priests and choirboys were commonplace, the idea that there was a massive cover-up is misplaced, everyone knew it went on but it was not deliberately covered up, it was just not seen as worthy of much attention unless it was particularly egregious. The modern contention that this kind of abuse has a permanent, lifetime impact would not have been given much credence.

"modern contention"???!

Recognition would seem a better word than contention. Makes it sound like modern society is just over sensitive!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Ken Clarke is such a fine example to people like Adonis, Blair and others on how to lay out a sensible compromise and is very much a remainer, but does not antagonise people

He would be a very good interim leader though it will not happen

He should have been PM, huge blunder by Tories

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Ken Clarke is such a fine example to people like Adonis, Blair and others on how to lay out a sensible compromise and is very much a remainer, but does not antagonise people

He would be a very good interim leader though it will not happen

Hear hear.

kle4 said:

How do the SNP do if theres a GE this year? I know polls are not massively different in Scotland but it's been volatile there and surely the Tory vote would suffer if no deal occurs for instance?

It depends on who is blamed for no deal but I just do not see it

As I said on the last thread, Gina Miller has said that the EU have a legal duty to prevent no deal and she was highly critical of labour and the EU

Scrapheap_as_was said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ericdier/status/1106119092925353985?s=21

He needs to focus on actually getting Spurs back in to Europe....

How would you react if Harry Kane backed Mark Francois for Tory leader ?

Roger said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's awful and a national fiasco.

But I have to admit there are aspects of all of this that are very funny indeed.

Yes. I keep thinking about the two years we couldn't be told anything because it would give away our negotiating position.........and then bursting into uncontrollable laughter.

Last night mps were saying removing no deal as an option would undermine the negotiating position, while also in backing the deal saying negotiation is over. Figure that one out.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

So did Thatcher apparently.

Margaret Thatcher personally protected a senior Conservative MP who was under suspicion of abusing children, according to MI5 files disclosed to a public inquiry.

Sir Peter Morrison featured in a series of internal Security Service memos written during 1986-87 about his alleged “interest in small boys”.

Despite MI5’s concerns — which were primarily about any risk to national security rather than the welfare of children — the MP for Chester served as a junior minister, then Tory party deputy chairman and eventually Mrs Thatcher’s parliamentary private secretary.

Five documents about Morrison, who died in 1995, were found in MI5 files during a trawl of archives for information relevant to the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA).

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c1bad844-4450-11e9-bfd2-5b366418ffd1

I'm surprised that's never become a bigger scandal.

it's about to be. How many more escaped scrutiny?

Hopefully it is not too late to get at least a rough picture of whether (how many) of these people were actually paedophiles.

The rumours and allegations were reported long ago in Gyles Brandreth's diaries. In 1991, Brandreth's constituents alleged to him that Morrison was 'a disgusting pervert' who was 'into little boys'. It couldn't be clearer could it? I assume this would have been edited out, had Morrison not died before the diaries were published.

rural_voter said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Floater said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Good

https://order-order.com/2019/03/14/steel-facing-disciplinary-investigation-paedo-cover/

The report last night made me so fecking angry

I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?

What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

Seriously

So did Thatcher apparently.

Margaret Thatcher personally protected a senior Conservative MP who was under suspicion of abusing children, according to MI5 files disclosed to a public inquiry.

Sir Peter Morrison featured in a series of internal Security Service memos written during 1986-87 about his alleged “interest in small boys”.

Despite MI5’s concerns — which were primarily about any risk to national security rather than the welfare of children — the MP for Chester served as a junior minister, then Tory party deputy chairman and eventually Mrs Thatcher’s parliamentary private secretary.

Five documents about Morrison, who died in 1995, were found in MI5 files during a trawl of archives for information relevant to the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA).

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c1bad844-4450-11e9-bfd2-5b366418ffd1

I'm surprised that's never become a bigger scandal.

it's about to be. How many more escaped scrutiny?

Hopefully it is not too late to get at least a rough picture of whether (how many) of these people were actually paedophiles.

The rumours and allegations were reported long ago in Gyles Brandreth's diaries. In 1991, Brandreth's constituents alleged to him that Morrison was 'a disgusting pervert' who was 'into little boys'. It couldn't be clearer could it? I assume this would have been edited out, had Morrison not died before the diaries were published.

How many more?

Are there any still being covered for, today, in 2019? If not, what changed?

AlastairMeeks said:

It's awful and a national fiasco.

But I have to admit there are aspects of all of this that are very funny indeed.

Mark Francois vs Will Self
May's "Lucky" Coat
Everything Marina Hyde has written about it
Boris' "Back to Prep School" haircut
Steve Baker being JRM's Power Bottom
The TIGs in Nando's pretending they are normal people
& c.

The comedy never ends...

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

How do the SNP do if theres a GE this year? I know polls are not massively different in Scotland but it's been volatile there and surely the Tory vote would suffer if no deal occurs for instance?

It depends on who is blamed for no deal but I just do not see it

As I said on the last thread, Gina Miller has said that the EU have a legal duty to prevent no deal and she was highly critical of labour and the EU

The Scots are waiting to see what happens. There is an air of disbelief. No one here believes a no deal Brexit will occur. If it does it would be a poll tax moment for the tories. English tories again would be seen to imposing an unwanted change on Scotland.

If the wa passes I am not sure what will be the outcome. Getting fishing back is important but losing freedom of movement is not wanted here and the Scottish tories have already stated they want a £20k not £30k salary requirement

hamiltonace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

How do the SNP do if theres a GE this year? I know polls are not massively different in Scotland but it's been volatile there and surely the Tory vote would suffer if no deal occurs for instance?

It depends on who is blamed for no deal but I just do not see it

As I said on the last thread, Gina Miller has said that the EU have a legal duty to prevent no deal and she was highly critical of labour and the EU

The Scots are waiting to see what happens. There is an air of disbelief. No one here believes a no deal Brexit will occur. If it does it would be a poll tax moment for the tories. English tories again would be seen to imposing an unwanted change on Scotland.

If the wa passes I am not sure what will be the outcome. Getting fishing back is important but losing freedom of movement is not wanted here and the Scottish tories have already stated they want a £20k not £30k salary requirement

I think the party should reduce the salary requirement to £20,000 - £30,000 is too high

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike we need to do a thread on Nigel Farage’s treason.

https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1105920444555776001?s=21
https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1105922344672026629?s=21

Farage can have a joint trial with Grieve.....

Theyd deserve each other. Despicable individuals.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike we need to do a thread on Nigel Farage’s treason.

https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1105920444555776001?s=21
https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1105922344672026629?s=21

As noted yesterday, (Tory MP) Daniel Kawczynski did the same thing at a conference in Poland last week, which i note was rebuffed by the Polish FM yesterday.