politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of gettin
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I wouldn't. What would the Tories be for?Slackbladder said:
a GE is 'cleaner' potentially than a new referendum. at least people will know what they are voting for in the immediate.Scott_P said:0 -
Labour has had contingency planning for Euros for a while, though I'm not sure we think they'll be an enjoyable experience.kle4 said:
Why does that pressure them? They think remain is better than the deal so euro elections wont sppok them.SouthamObserver said:Not just Hodges. Sounds like the Tories are briefing to put pressure on the ERG ...
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1105459270701772802?s=210 -
Dunno. It's easier for Labour to fudge it, but there would still be a hell of an internal row about it, and the fudge would be unconvincing. As for Tories, it's hard to see any policy which would paper over the cracks.tlg86 said:
Will there not be a great reckoning before/during the campaign? Or will the two leaders fudge something that allows their parties to continue to be home to people with opposite views on Brexit?Richard_Nabavi said:
Except, as regard Brexit, for those who vote Labour or Conservative.Slackbladder said:
a GE is 'cleaner' potentially than a new referendum. at least people will know what they are voting for in the immediate.Scott_P said:0 -
But who...anyone from the ERG wing would send remainers to the TIG, and no 'remainer' would win...Philip_Thompson said:If the ERG had backed the deal today but it failed due to Labour/DUP/TIG and a tiny handful of Remain headbangers like Grieve then a new election could have solved things.
If the deal dies by 200 votes or similar a new election solves nothing. Only May's resignation can change things and if a new PM can unite the Tory Party behind something then an election might make sense.0 -
Not too many please :ERichard_Nabavi said:Nigel Evans is switching to support the deal.
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In the circumstances, how do you see that unity arriving? From where I sit, the Europhobes have destroyed the modern Conservative party on the anvil of their own monomania. Compromise does not appear to sit in their lexicon.Philip_Thompson said:If the ERG had backed the deal today but it failed due to Labour/DUP/TIG and a tiny handful of Remain headbangers like Grieve then a new election could have solved things.
If the deal dies by 200 votes or similar a new election solves nothing. Only May's resignation can change things and if a new PM can unite the Tory Party behind something then an election might make sense.
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It'd ensure that no Labour MP voted for the deal, for a start.DavidL said:What if May had the bottle to turn up and say this is not a vote of confidence in my government but a vote of confidence in me. I have done my best. I will resign if I lose. It would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons.
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A GE on that basis could be 1997 all over again for the Tories, although, in spite of themselves, I suspect the LD's might do better than they did then.Danny565 said:IMO, Labour's position in a snap election will be "we'll extend Article 50 for two years, we'll negotiate our version of Brexit (Customs Union etc.), then we'll put that deal vs Remain in a referendum at the end of it".
Which would store up a lot of problems for them down the road if they actually got into government, but could potentially work as a short-term position to get them through the election campaign.0 -
Labour will surely have the Tim Farron problem though. Every question will be about anti-semitism.Danny565 said:IMO, Labour's position in a snap election will be "we'll extend Article 50 for two years, we'll negotiate our version of Brexit (Customs Union etc.), then we'll put that deal vs Remain in a referendum at the end of it".
Which would store up a lot of problems for them down the road if they actually got into government, but could potentially work as a short-term position to get them through the election campaign.0 -
Blatant attempt by Mogg to spin things out toward no deal
Edit/except it was all huff and no puff0 -
Lol - yes QED!!matt said:
David Davis, Boris Johnson, Andrew Bridgen etc etc. The whole lot of them.felix said:The £ has recovered much of the lost ground against the EURO - I suspect the markets feel soft Brexit or remain now in the ascendency. On T. May - many mistakes made but the majority of the problems are really much more to do with the nature of the task set rather than the person charged with delivery. Seriously who'd have done much better?
In their own minds.0 -
Bloody nonsense. Solves nothing so why does he want it? Moron.Scott_P said:0 -
I think David Blunkett might have done that.david_herdson said:
That is the logic but it's a much sharper vote now and Hammond went as close as he could the other day to saying that he couldn't vote for it.OblitusSumMe said:
The government whipped against the Spelman amendment, so consistency suggests that they will whip to keep no deal as an option.david_herdson said:
We don't know how the government will whip on the No Deal vote yet. Seems pretty hard to go either way without prompting cabinet resignations. If it whips for No Deal, then the PM could be looking for a new chancellor to deliver the Spring Statement.TheScreamingEagles said:
Alternatively, it could have no whip and admit that it's completely lost any semblance of control.
Presumably Rudd would have to resign too, which might set a record of sorts. Has anyone resigned twice from the cabinet within 12 months before?0 -
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I was with you until those last six words.Philip_Thompson said:If the ERG had backed the deal today but it failed due to Labour/DUP/TIG and a tiny handful of Remain headbangers like Grieve then a new election could have solved things.
If the deal dies by 200 votes or similar a new election solves nothing. Only May's resignation can change things and if a new PM can unite the Tory Party behind something0 -
Any sign of those mythical dozens of labour backers. By my reckoning they need about 80 of those....0
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lol May has lost her voice again!!0
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What amendments were various bods trying to tack on this time round ?Scott_P said:0 -
conference voice redux...oh boy....0
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May is not in good voice.0
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Both sectors are 757 - though the Edmonton sector may change if they have to swap out UK 738Max (LGW, for example) flights for 757s.Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. My wife has the tickets, if need be I'll ask her to check. I don't want to worry her if don't need to.nielh said:
I recently flew back from iceland on icelandair on a 737 max. should say on your ticjetPhilip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
Manchester -> Keflavik, Keflavik -> Edmonton, Alberta.CarlottaVance said:
They have some Max in their fleet:Philip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Icelandair.htm
What’s the route?0 -
BBC (I know, I know) reporting ERG might abstain. How would that change things, surely better for May?0
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Theresa needs to use the nuclear option here. Say that unless the DUP/ERG back her deal she will bulldozer legislation through revoking Article 50. Brexit will then be put on ice until parliament decides on an approach that everyone can agree upon. The ultras will be terrified that this will amount to a cancellation of Brexit and will come grovelling.0
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Each abstention counts for 0.5 out of the ~115 needednumbertwelve said:BBC (I know, I know) reporting ERG might abstain. How would that change things, surely better for May?
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Why did Labour keep putting its trust in Brown in 2008-10. Why did the Tories put their trust in Major from 1993-7?Jonathan said:Why do the Tory faithful keep putting their trust in May?
It's not that the current situation is good; it's that there's a substantial risk that making a change now could make things worse. As such, best to wait.
FWIW, my view is that she has to see the country through the next few weeks but that once this phase is over, she needs to go immediately.0 -
"The Prime Minister may have lost her voice but would she agree with me that if we end up with a second referendum 17.2 million people will have lost theirs."
I liked that. Elegant.0 -
We’ll see what happens, but there was quite a big caveat: that the ERG and DUP genuinely want to leave the EU.SeanT said:
Earlier today you were confidently predicting a victory for the Deal, even though we told you this was unlikely. So your further utterances must be seen in that context.SouthamObserver said:It turns out the Irish government did not overplay its hand.
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Of course. And there's a steady trickle of switchers to the deal. In that event, she'd probably still lose, but by less than 100. That would return the indestructible can to May's feet to kick it down the road to another vote next week.numbertwelve said:BBC (I know, I know) reporting ERG might abstain. How would that change things, surely better for May?
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Apply to become 51st state of the Union.Andy_Cooke said:Okay, trying to break down to essentials:
As of today, we're legally set to leave the EU at 11pm, two weeks on Friday. This means that the only three options are:
1 - We sign a Deal
2 - We extend the deadline (includes extension+GE, extension+ref, extension+alternate deal, extension+fannying about and achieving nothing)
3 - We leave with No Deal
(NB - Item 3 is the default if nothing changes)
Deal-wise, this is the only one on the table. Chance of it passing - maybe 5%? Stranger things have happened.
If we ask to extend the deadline, my guess it will be "long, or nothing." With EU elections coming up, they need clarity on whether or not we'll be standing. If we're in them, we should run to the end of the budget period. If we're not, then it truly is "Deal or No Deal; we Brexit nevertheless". I can only see that happening if Parliament gets pretty close to passing it and May can convince the EU that one more heave will absolutely and genuinely get it over the line.
No-one (well, no-one in Parliament other than the loons) wants item 3, but if we're gridlocked, or if the EU overplay their hand in extension discussions ("You can have one, but give Spain Gibraltar"), it happens in 17 days and 9 hours, anyway.
My best guesses at odds:
- Deal (5%) [includes with short extension]
- Long extension (60%)
- No Deal (35%)
- Other unexpected0 -
As it’s stopping selling the model in W.Europe is that a surprise?Scott_P said:0 -
Thanks! That's [somewhat] reassuring.CarlottaVance said:
Both sectors are 757 - though the Edmonton sector may change if they have to swap out UK 738Max (LGW, for example) flights for 757s.Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. My wife has the tickets, if need be I'll ask her to check. I don't want to worry her if don't need to.nielh said:
I recently flew back from iceland on icelandair on a 737 max. should say on your ticjetPhilip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
Manchester -> Keflavik, Keflavik -> Edmonton, Alberta.CarlottaVance said:
They have some Max in their fleet:Philip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Icelandair.htm
What’s the route?0 -
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Puerto Rico might have an issue with thatFenman said:
Apply to become 51st state of the Union.Andy_Cooke said:Okay, trying to break down to essentials:
As of today, we're legally set to leave the EU at 11pm, two weeks on Friday. This means that the only three options are:
1 - We sign a Deal
2 - We extend the deadline (includes extension+GE, extension+ref, extension+alternate deal, extension+fannying about and achieving nothing)
3 - We leave with No Deal
(NB - Item 3 is the default if nothing changes)
Deal-wise, this is the only one on the table. Chance of it passing - maybe 5%? Stranger things have happened.
If we ask to extend the deadline, my guess it will be "long, or nothing." With EU elections coming up, they need clarity on whether or not we'll be standing. If we're in them, we should run to the end of the budget period. If we're not, then it truly is "Deal or No Deal; we Brexit nevertheless". I can only see that happening if Parliament gets pretty close to passing it and May can convince the EU that one more heave will absolutely and genuinely get it over the line.
No-one (well, no-one in Parliament other than the loons) wants item 3, but if we're gridlocked, or if the EU overplay their hand in extension discussions ("You can have one, but give Spain Gibraltar"), it happens in 17 days and 9 hours, anyway.
My best guesses at odds:
- Deal (5%) [includes with short extension]
- Long extension (60%)
- No Deal (35%)
- Other unexpected
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Also untrue unless Leave voters are to be barred from taking part in a second referendum, but yes, certainly elegant.kinabalu said:"The Prime Minister may have lost her voice but would she agree with me that if we end up with a second referendum 17.2 million people will have lost theirs."
I liked that. Elegant.0 -
Very likely IMO.david_herdson said:Why did Labour keep putting its trust in Brown in 2008-10. Why did the Tories put their trust in Major from 1993-7?
It's not that the current situation is good; it's that there's a substantial risk that making a change now could make things worse. As such, best to wait.
FWIW, my view is that she has to see the country through the next few weeks but that once this phase is over, she needs to go immediately.
I got her last week at 7.6 to go Q2 - could not believe that price.0 -
Those last six words were preceded by a rather critical word, "if".El_Capitano said:
I was with you until those last six words.Philip_Thompson said:If the ERG had backed the deal today but it failed due to Labour/DUP/TIG and a tiny handful of Remain headbangers like Grieve then a new election could have solved things.
If the deal dies by 200 votes or similar a new election solves nothing. Only May's resignation can change things and if a new PM can unite the Tory Party behind something0 -
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Well there won't BE any further progress. This is the end of the road...thats it.Danny565 said:0 -
How symbolic is the PM's almost total inability to speak to this motion.0
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The house looks half empty.0
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The midpoint of the current SPIN price (249-259) implies 52 MPs will recant compared with last time.
No, me neither.0 -
What do they do with the Infinti cars they make?Scott_P said:0 -
Cox has surely put paid to that?Richard_Nabavi said:The midpoint of the current SPIN price (249-259) implies 52 MPs will recant compared with last time.
No, me neither.
What on earth was May thinking to sign with great fanfare a codpiece that Cox hadn't signed up to?0 -
There is a third alternative: the planes are mechanically safe, but the changes to handling a near stall is the critical link. Experienced but inadequately retrained pilots are at risk in extreme pressure situations of reverting to their standard training, ending in a crash.rpjs said:
That is a possibility, but FI could get in some wet-leased planes to cover, like Norwegian did when their 787s were having their engines fixed.Philip_Thompson said:
So the flight would still be going ahead? I'm worried we're going to be told the flight is cancelled.Pulpstar said:
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.Philip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
I wouldn't worry too much right now about it though. The aviation authorities are grounding the Maxes to a) reassure the public and b) get Boeing to get its finger out.
Either Boeing will satisfactorily demonstrate the Max is safe, and that the two crashes were unrelated (which is still quite possible to be the case) or it will find and fix the issue. Chances are that the Maxes will be flying again by the time you and your family are.
If this is the case, Boeing will have to convince the airlines, aviation authorities and the public, that the appropriate retraining to all 8 Max pilots is adequate. How long this takes is much harder to predict.0 -
Does revoking require parliament? Royal Prerogative surely.Stark_Dawning said:Theresa needs to use the nuclear option here. Say that unless the DUP/ERG back her deal she will bulldozer legislation through revoking Article 50. Brexit will then be put on ice until parliament decides on an approach that everyone can agree upon. The ultras will be terrified that this will amount to a cancellation of Brexit and will come grovelling.
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Good on him for once. No need to drag out this political killing.Scott_P said:0 -
Its inconceivable. If he had then there was indeed a chance, but what a stupid gamble.Philip_Thompson said:
Cox has surely put paid to that?Richard_Nabavi said:The midpoint of the current SPIN price (249-259) implies 52 MPs will recant compared with last time.
No, me neither.
What on earth was May thinking to sign with great fanfare a codpiece that Cox hadn't signed up to?0 -
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1105473464302006272
Someone failed to keep DUP on board last night.0 -
So some people who's nerves have broken vs the DUP and co, who wont read or listen to anything now since they've made their decision.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I doubt the 'AS' issue will be a priority for many people.OblitusSumMe said:Labour will surely have the Tim Farron problem though. Every question will be about anti-semitism.
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A non-nutter ERG member?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Wow. You can smell the fear. Theresa might just pull this off.CarlottaVance said:0 -
For all of Theresa May's faults, how would anyone else pass Brexit when the House of Commons has a clear majority of Remainers who oppose Brexit, and Leavers who oppose Brexit?0 -
Exactly. Its absurd to keep expecting more. Just admit it was not good enough and so we must move on. That's a reasonable position, not to keep asking more.Slackbladder said:
Well there won't BE any further progress. This is the end of the road...thats it.Danny565 said:0 -
If SPIN are right we're still looking at the second-biggest Parliamentary defeat ever aren't we?
How can May not resign? This situation is not credible.0 -
Charles Walker is my MP. I can only imagine that "senior tory" is polite journo speak to mean he is a total non entity. He is past "junior" but not yet "veteran". He isnt "talented", "prominent", "outspoken" or "influential" and has never been tipped for any kind of promotion. This is the only time i can ever remember him being mentioned in national discourse except in a list of rank outsiders for the non-vacancy of House speaker.
What would it take to be described as plain "tory"?0 -
I hope they enjoy the border poll which will likely be coming their way.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1105473464302006272
Someone failed to keep DUP on board last night.0 -
Its reasonable if the people involved change. A new PM could get new progress. May can not.kle4 said:
Exactly. Its absurd to keep expecting more. Just admit it was not good enough and so we must move on. That's a reasonable position, not to keep asking more.Slackbladder said:
Well there won't BE any further progress. This is the end of the road...thats it.Danny565 said:0 -
Against the wishes of NI business, trades unions and farmers - and two thirds of their electorate.CarlottaVance said:
Dickheads.0 -
I second this emotion.Danny565 said:IMO, Labour's position in a snap election will be "we'll extend Article 50 for two years, we'll negotiate our version of Brexit (Customs Union etc.), then we'll put that deal vs Remain in a referendum at the end of it".
Which would store up a lot of problems for them down the road if they actually got into government, but could potentially work as a short-term position to get them through the election campaign.
That would be the policy and I would give Labour a good chance of winning such an election.0 -
Why? What would change someone's mind then?NickPalmer said:
Of course. And there's a steady trickle of switchers to the deal. In that event, she'd probably still lose, but by less than 100. That would return the indestructible can to May's feet to kick it down the road to another vote next week.numbertwelve said:BBC (I know, I know) reporting ERG might abstain. How would that change things, surely better for May?
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She's toast.Stark_Dawning said:
Wow. You can smell the fear. Theresa might just pull this off.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Come up with a Brexit that can be backed by Leavers then go to the polls to get backing for that.Sean_F said:
For all of Theresa May's faults, how would anyone else pass Brexit when the House of Commons has a clear majority of Remainers who oppose Brexit, and Leavers who oppose Brexit?0 -
If you need to retrain pilots to fly in your plane that is different to their experience and requires them to not act on their instincts, is it not the planes that need altered, not the pilots?eristdoof said:
There is a third alternative: the planes are mechanically safe, but the changes to handling a near stall is the critical link. Experienced but inadequately retrained pilots are at risk in extreme pressure situations of reverting to their standard training, ending in a crash.rpjs said:
That is a possibility, but FI could get in some wet-leased planes to cover, like Norwegian did when their 787s were having their engines fixed.Philip_Thompson said:
So the flight would still be going ahead? I'm worried we're going to be told the flight is cancelled.Pulpstar said:
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.Philip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
I wouldn't worry too much right now about it though. The aviation authorities are grounding the Maxes to a) reassure the public and b) get Boeing to get its finger out.
Either Boeing will satisfactorily demonstrate the Max is safe, and that the two crashes were unrelated (which is still quite possible to be the case) or it will find and fix the issue. Chances are that the Maxes will be flying again by the time you and your family are.
If this is the case, Boeing will have to convince the airlines, aviation authorities and the public, that the appropriate retraining to all 8 Max pilots is adequate. How long this takes is much harder to predict.
“See that’s were you’ve been going wrong, guvner. You’ve been putting your foot down on the brake pedal in an emergency stop situation. On the new model you have to push the button the dashboard that looks like a kitkat. You know “take a break, take a kitkat, geddit?”0 -
Think he comes from the Boris/Davis/Raab camp?CarlottaVance said:0 -
I wonder how the south would feel about reunification ?matt said:
I hope they enjoy the border poll which will likely be coming their way.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1105473464302006272
Someone failed to keep DUP on board last night.0 -
A kinder, gentler time. Now it's all codpieces & getting fucked.
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/7536152055407165440 -
Maybe the DUPs behviour will see a revival of the Ulster Unionists?Nigelb said:
Against the wishes of NI business, trades unions and farmers - and two thirds of their electorate.CarlottaVance said:
Dickheads.0 -
But Kantar has them 10% ahead! In reality,though, most of the 6% recorded for Greens would end up voting Labour.OldKingCole said:
A GE on that basis could be 1997 all over again for the Tories, although, in spite of themselves, I suspect the LD's might do better than they did then.Danny565 said:IMO, Labour's position in a snap election will be "we'll extend Article 50 for two years, we'll negotiate our version of Brexit (Customs Union etc.), then we'll put that deal vs Remain in a referendum at the end of it".
Which would store up a lot of problems for them down the road if they actually got into government, but could potentially work as a short-term position to get them through the election campaign.0 -
Buckle up boys (and girls)..this is going to get very very rocky...0
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A lot of people who call themselves Leavers will oppose any form of Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
Come up with a Brexit that can be backed by Leavers then go to the polls to get backing for that.Sean_F said:
For all of Theresa May's faults, how would anyone else pass Brexit when the House of Commons has a clear majority of Remainers who oppose Brexit, and Leavers who oppose Brexit?0 -
Because it's what she does. Lose? Try again. Lose again? Try once more. (rinse and repeat) It might even work.kle4 said:
Why? What would change someone's mind then?NickPalmer said:
Of course. And there's a steady trickle of switchers to the deal. In that event, she'd probably still lose, but by less than 100. That would return the indestructible can to May's feet to kick it down the road to another vote next week.numbertwelve said:BBC (I know, I know) reporting ERG might abstain. How would that change things, surely better for May?
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Progress by the end of the month? You're living in a dream worldPhilip_Thompson said:
Its reasonable if the people involved change. A new PM could get new progress. May can not.kle4 said:
Exactly. Its absurd to keep expecting more. Just admit it was not good enough and so we must move on. That's a reasonable position, not to keep asking more.Slackbladder said:
Well there won't BE any further progress. This is the end of the road...thats it.Danny565 said:0 -
But we're not a cohesive group. I agree with almost nothing Archer101au says, for example. I doubt I agree very much with Jeremy Corbyn either.Philip_Thompson said:
Come up with a Brexit that can be backed by Leavers then go to the polls to get backing for that.Sean_F said:
For all of Theresa May's faults, how would anyone else pass Brexit when the House of Commons has a clear majority of Remainers who oppose Brexit, and Leavers who oppose Brexit?0 -
A spot a tiny flaw in your otherwise excellent plan.Philip_Thompson said:
Come up with a Brexit that can be backed by Leavers then go to the polls to get backing for that.Sean_F said:
For all of Theresa May's faults, how would anyone else pass Brexit when the House of Commons has a clear majority of Remainers who oppose Brexit, and Leavers who oppose Brexit?0 -
Nope it is absolutely true. There is no point asking people to vote if you do not follow through on what they vote for. All those who voted to Leave will have been old their votes are worthless.El_Capitano said:
Also untrue unless Leave voters are to be barred from taking part in a second referendum, but yes, certainly elegant.kinabalu said:"The Prime Minister may have lost her voice but would she agree with me that if we end up with a second referendum 17.2 million people will have lost theirs."
I liked that. Elegant.
That is also the message that many of us will be pushing in the coming years. Democracy in Britain has failed and the whole system needs to be swept away.0 -
I think it would be more like one of those inconclusive elections they had in the 1920's.justin124 said:
But Kantar has them 10% ahead! In reality,though, most of the 6% recorded for Greens would end up voting Labour.OldKingCole said:
A GE on that basis could be 1997 all over again for the Tories, although, in spite of themselves, I suspect the LD's might do better than they did then.Danny565 said:IMO, Labour's position in a snap election will be "we'll extend Article 50 for two years, we'll negotiate our version of Brexit (Customs Union etc.), then we'll put that deal vs Remain in a referendum at the end of it".
Which would store up a lot of problems for them down the road if they actually got into government, but could potentially work as a short-term position to get them through the election campaign.0 -
If you are ERG you are going to get another go at voting on May's deal, either before the end of the month or after an extension. There is no need to vote for it now with 3 weeks left until we leave. They may however have their hand forced next time round in order to ensure Brexit goes ahead.0
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Or that the requirement to place bigger, more powerful engines higher up and further forward (to save the huge redesign work of taller landing gear) has introduced an inherent instability in certain situations. Boeing’s rather snooty response to the Lion Air crash may have been ill-advised.eristdoof said:
There is a third alternative: the planes are mechanically safe, but the changes to handling a near stall is the critical link. Experienced but inadequately retrained pilots are at risk in extreme pressure situations of reverting to their standard training, ending in a crash.rpjs said:
That is a possibility, but FI could get in some wet-leased planes to cover, like Norwegian did when their 787s were having their engines fixed.Philip_Thompson said:
So the flight would still be going ahead? I'm worried we're going to be told the flight is cancelled.Pulpstar said:
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.Philip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
I wouldn't worry too much right now about it though. The aviation authorities are grounding the Maxes to a) reassure the public and b) get Boeing to get its finger out.
Either Boeing will satisfactorily demonstrate the Max is safe, and that the two crashes were unrelated (which is still quite possible to be the case) or it will find and fix the issue. Chances are that the Maxes will be flying again by the time you and your family are.
If this is the case, Boeing will have to convince the airlines, aviation authorities and the public, that the appropriate retraining to all 8 Max pilots is adequate. How long this takes is much harder to predict.
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Unclear, but possibly. Courts would no doubt be asked.notme2 said:
Does revoking require parliament? Royal Prerogative surely.Stark_Dawning said:Theresa needs to use the nuclear option here. Say that unless the DUP/ERG back her deal she will bulldozer legislation through revoking Article 50. Brexit will then be put on ice until parliament decides on an approach that everyone can agree upon. The ultras will be terrified that this will amount to a cancellation of Brexit and will come grovelling.
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Isn't he chair of a Commons committee? That's not a total non-entity.edb said:Charles Walker is my MP. I can only imagine that "senior tory" is polite journo speak to mean he is a total non entity. He is past "junior" but not yet "veteran". He isnt "talented", "prominent", "outspoken" or "influential" and has never been tipped for any kind of promotion. This is the only time i can ever remember him being mentioned in national discourse except in a list of rank outsiders for the non-vacancy of House speaker.
What would it take to be described as plain "tory"?0 -
Essentially the same point that David Edgerton made in his book "The Shock of the Old". Sometimes, it is better to stick with what you have and not make things too complicated.kle4 said:
So some people who's nerves have broken vs the DUP and co, who wont read or listen to anything now since they've made their decision.CarlottaVance said:Scott_P said:0 -
I'm not sure...I think there's a good chance if she doesn't get it tonight. She's gone tomorrow.Brom said:If you are ERG you are going to get another go at voting on May's deal, either before the end of the month or after an extension. There is no need to vote for it now with 3 weeks left until we leave. They may however have their hand forced next time round in order to ensure Brexit goes ahead.
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Emotionally happy. The wider economic and political consequences for North and South would be pretty adverse. But as one can see with Brexit, emotion can trump objective logic.Martin_Kinsella said:
I wonder how the south would feel about reunification ?matt said:
I hope they enjoy the border poll which will likely be coming their way.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1105473464302006272
Someone failed to keep DUP on board last night.0 -
Who said by the end of the month?kle4 said:
Progress by the end of the month? You're living in a dream worldPhilip_Thompson said:
Its reasonable if the people involved change. A new PM could get new progress. May can not.kle4 said:
Exactly. Its absurd to keep expecting more. Just admit it was not good enough and so we must move on. That's a reasonable position, not to keep asking more.Slackbladder said:
Well there won't BE any further progress. This is the end of the road...thats it.Danny565 said:
If it was up to me we'd extend for 21 months and the first thing to do in that extension is have a Tory leadership election.0 -
I haven't got a stable view in my mind on the likely outcome of a snap election. However there are some pretty negative forces that will work against Labour and they are starting behind in the polls. I'm not confident of predicting anything, or should I say I'm much less confident than normal and I'm never that confident.kinabalu said:
I second this emotion.Danny565 said:IMO, Labour's position in a snap election will be "we'll extend Article 50 for two years, we'll negotiate our version of Brexit (Customs Union etc.), then we'll put that deal vs Remain in a referendum at the end of it".
Which would store up a lot of problems for them down the road if they actually got into government, but could potentially work as a short-term position to get them through the election campaign.
That would be the policy and I would give Labour a good chance of winning such an election.0 -
That is precisely it. Parliament will not back any Brexit that is both (i) meaningful and (ii) feasible. Why we had that referendum in 2016 I do not know.Sean_F said:For all of Theresa May's faults, how would anyone else pass Brexit when the House of Commons has a clear majority of Remainers who oppose Brexit, and Leavers who oppose Brexit?
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