politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are we on the point of breakthrough?
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Indeed. Twas always thus.bigjohnowls said:0 -
That's not quite right I think. As I understand it, the EU has agreed to strengthen the language on 'good faith', which would make it easier to take the step of exiting the backstop if ever necessary.Benpointer said:This is just a face-saving fudge. There was clearly always the possibility of abrogating on the basis of the other party not acting in good faith. Today's announcement and the unilateral declaration make it no easier to take that step, should the governement of the day ever feel the need to.
Still, I appreciate that quite a few Leaver opponents of the WA are desperately looking for a way to climbdown, and this, it appears, provides it.
Your substantial point is broadly right, though.0 -
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This will test the DUP. Its legalesse is right in DUP wonkland and they are good at this kind of thing. It has some room for them to back it.
If they go for it they will bring their electorate with them ok but, and no matter what your polls suggest, for the DUP and vast majority of unionists, the blood is way thicker than water and that, always, is the underlying motivation.0 -
williamglenn said:
Dream on.Mortimer said:Suspect DUP will vote for this. And perhaps 50 Labour abstentions, too.
Brexit is reality William. DUP and Mogg will join May in Lobby tomorrow, they want to avoid another ref, along with at least 30 Labour rebels who also want to avoid another ref. May wins tomorrow. People’s vote/remain is dead.
Goodnight. 🙃0 -
Shippers nails it.rottenborough said:0 -
Not a lawyer, but once you get past the waffle, the UK can raise a dispute (part 6, title 3) . It isn't a unilateral exit. Question is whether enough MPs want to believe it.Scott_P said:0 -
And if that’s the case, SeanT adds another grand to his largesse.dots said:williamglenn said:
Dream on.Mortimer said:Suspect DUP will vote for this. And perhaps 50 Labour abstentions, too.
Brexit is reality William. DUP and Mogg will join May in Lobby tomorrow, they want to avoid another ref, along with at least 30 Labour rebels who also want to avoid another ref. May wins tomorrow. People’s vote/remain is dead.0 -
A unilateral declaration definitely trumps the legal treaty. I am sure that Codpiece Cox will change his mind...0
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It is the equivalent of arranging food into a smiley face for a fussy younger eater, interesting to see how many actually objected to the food on the plate and can't be satisfied by the presentation.Benpointer said:
This is just a face-saving fudge. There was clearly always the possibility of abrogating on the basis of the other party not acting in good faith. Today's announcement and the unilateral declaration make it no easier to take that step, should the government of the day ever feel the need to.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. If Cox and the DUP back it that is good enough for me.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The key will be Cox's advice and the DUPPhilip_Thompson said:If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
The EU seemed genuinely taken aback after talking to Cox last week and now finally there's progress. Pisses me off that someone like Cox wasn't used sooner rather than Robbins etc
Still, I appreciate that quite a few Leaver opponents of the WA are desperately looking for a way to climbdown, and this, it appears, provides it.0 -
Haven't seen anyone post this yet but apologies if I've missed it - Sporting Index have a market up on the number of "ayes" on MV2 tomorrow, although market is currently suspended.
I suspect it will be volatile, for a while, once it opens/resumes. The distribution of outcomes is non-trivial right now; I would suggest it is bi- and possibly multi-modal.0 -
If the AG doesn't, then surely May resigns? She has just put in her final shift at the EU tables, there is no way she can survive her own AG saying it is a load of crap.RochdalePioneers said:A unilateral declaration definitely trumps the legal treaty. I am sure that Codpiece Cox will change his mind...
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So if the DUP can be brought on board, the equation becomes: Tory rebels must be max 6 more than Lab rebels. 21 vs 15 perhaps?0
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Yes, well, that would be the sensible thing for ERG, if they want to avoid watching Alistair Campbell laughing at them daily on TV as the 2nd referendum gets under way.dots said:williamglenn said:
Dream on.Mortimer said:Suspect DUP will vote for this. And perhaps 50 Labour abstentions, too.
Brexit is reality William. DUP and Mogg will join May in Lobby tomorrow, they want to avoid another ref, along with at least 30 Labour rebels who also want to avoid another ref. May wins tomorrow. People’s vote/remain is dead.
Goodnight. 🙃
But when did sense come into it?0 -
Indeed I expect so, I would always have preferred to associate myself with the likes of Mercer et al (I'll pass on Shapps) rather than Moggs and coSean_F said:
I imagine your view will be shared by MP's like Grant Shapps, Hugo Swire, Michael Fallon, Johnny Mercer, Sir Graham Brady, Stephen McParland, but I wonder will hold out to the bitter end.Philip_Thompson said:If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
Last month all Leavers except Ann Marie Trevalyn backed the deal on proviso the backstop was dealt with. If the backstop has been dealt with they should honour their pledge.0 -
NEW THREAD0
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I know there will be so much more aggravation to follow, years of it, but it is nice to think, for a moment, that whether one wants to remain or leave at least the question might be settled tomorrow. Thank you to the DUP for not killing it off right away, so I can take that thought with me as I go to rest.
Night all.0 -
SM and CU remains possible, there is nothing in the WA that stops it.Gallowgate said:
No. A good deal for a remainer is single market and customs union. This still honours the referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
Giving the game away that there's no intention to find a good deal to leave the EU as the referendum decided.williamglenn said:
Of course it's a bad deal if you're pro-EU. It takes us out of the EU.AndyJS said:Labour mayor and former MP Tony Lloyd says on Newsnight the deal is a bad deal, despite being pro-EU in the referendum.
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If John Curtice is to be believed, they may well have passed.Benpointer said:Fourteen million? What happened to the other 3.4 million Leave voters?
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Takeaway from tonight . A deal is closer and so is a second EU vote .
The optics of the EU making some concessions changes the blame narrative . If May had come back empty handed the press would have gone to town .
And if the ERG refuse to back this then other Tories will round on them and calls for a second vote to ratify the deal will grow .0
