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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At GE2017 CON voters were SIX TIMES more likely to say Brexit was the key factor in deciding votes than LAB ones
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If people voted for them in the hope that they would do it more successfully than the Tories, they are going to be disappointed if the Labour party somehow manages to secure another referendum with remain still an option on the ballot paper.
Well the majority who aren't that bothered about Brexit either way have to vote for someone.
Dan Hannan arguing for Parliament to vote down Theresa May's "worthless deal" has been retweeted by Steve Baker today.
I think with time though the EU has become a bigger issue because of the inept government negotiations .
Initially after the vote many Remainers were in the okay it’s happened , very unhappy about it but let’s gets an orderly exit that keeps close ties with the EU .
Now because of the no deal fantasists the anger has gone through the roof because Remainers feel that we’re being asked to accept not only an exit but the worst possible outcome .
And this has now led to even more division . If no deal happens I’m afraid there’s no chance to reconcile the country.
2. Likely
3. Possibly, in a it’s not May’s victory way. Having said that, it sounds like a bad novel, the sort with raised gold lettering on the cover.
4. I want Gillian Anderson. It’s unlikely.
5. See 1. There’s the deal (and the Eden-esque health issue to provide cover).
Also while Labour safe seats may stay Labour even if they voted Leave and Brexit is revoked do not forget Labour has to win Tory voters in Tory held Leave voting marginal seats to gain a majority and those Tory voters place delivering Brexit as a high priority
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1101794774607151106
England - 113 all out
Going to need more than Archer if they want to win the World Cup.
As there is no Commons majority for No Deal I think the risk of no Brexit at all might focus enough Tory MPs minds to get the Deal through with some support from say 30 to 40 Labour MPs from Leave seats who also want Brexit to be delivered
Didn't we used to have an author called Tom around here somewhere?
No exceptions.
Either back the deal or get another EU ref . The ERG would soon fold and together with some Labour rebels the deal would get through .
It seems if they can't have a slogathon they give up instead of grinding up to 200.
The DUP also are becoming less vociferous against the Deal if an addendum is added to the Deal that the aim is the backstop will not be permanent as Barnier has suggested
Surely this simply reflects small state vs big state thinking that motivates Conservative vs Labour voters.
Con 27
Lab 25
LD 6
TIG 3
Looks odd - presumably Don't Know / Refused not removed?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/02/independent-group-mps-brexit
If the Commons refuses to vote down her government and if it doesn't have the guts to extend (or revoke, which is what more of them want, but are too cowardly to go for) then of course May will just do it again and again.
Unless the SNP are on 30-35%, obviously. Then the figures stack up fairly well.
Anyway, I must be off.
2) I think it will fall short. It was rejected by so much even a massive turnaround may not be enough.
3) He would, should it pass. Quite the turnaround for him after the government being in contempt. Cox's codpiece had better be magnificent though.
4) I don't think she will. On one hand it almost makes sense not least because the approach of each party to the next phase will be a big moment. But it will unite Labour, she ran a terrible campaign and a great many have made clear she needs to go, and she said she would not fight the next election. Weaseling out that she only meant the next scheduled one would not cut it.
5) When she stands down the next leader will be more to their liking I am sure. At least until the first time reality bites.
Any markets on what number MV will actually pass? I'd go for MV 8.
3% for the Tiggers would admittedly be a fairly big drop within a week (down from 6% last week), though.
https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1101905760617971713?s=21
John Rentoul
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Cons regain 6-point lead over Lab, 40% to 34%: Opinium
Cons 40
Labour 34
In that case I think the ERG and enough Labour MPs from Leave seats will cave and vote for the Deal to ensure Brexit takes place and the Deal will narrowly pass
"You're all thieves and parasites!"
"Possibly, but as a matter of interest how did you vote last time?"
"Scum!
I agree with Mike's article - there were a good many Labour Leave voters, but I didn't find many who felt it was top priority. Generally Labour voters dislike Tory governments more than the EU...
The Independent Group has yet to make any substantial breakthrough, according to a new Opinium poll for the Observer. When members of the public were asked who they would vote for if a general election were called tomorrow, just 5% picked the Independent Group.
The poll reveals that the Tories are on 37%, four points ahead of Labour on 33%. The Liberal Democrats and Ukip are both on 7%.
Whether the continuity Labour party struggles continue is key, and whether May's deal passes - once Brexit is definitely happening I would assume the Tiggers would need to find something else to coalesce around, and if they form a proper party at that stage will it have any backing at all?
Batten has moved the party to the extreme fringes and it won't return to anything close to national success until that is reversed.
New confidence and supply deal worth twice as much as last time? Thanks to, er, the end of austerity or some such talk.
Revolutions are like that. They make everyone an extremist in the end.
This then inflames the divisions .
Nowhere does he say he'd vote for the deal without changes to the backstop.
TIG look like ending up sacrificial lambs who helped push Labour towards a second EU vote .
But I do fear No Brexit at all.
So unless I am persuaded otherwise, I will vote for the #Deal"
So Fabricant makes absolutely clear he will vote for the Deal over No Brexit at all and once it looks likely the Commons will vote down No Deal by a big margin and then vote for length extension of Art 50 and EUref2 if the Deal is rejected again then Fabricant will vote for the Deal as the only way to ensure Brexit happens, the backstop then becomes irrelevant
He is afraid that the Remain majority will stop Brexit, in which case he will ditch his backstop concerns quicker than a nun passing a brothel for as he said he will not risk No Brexit at all, he will grasp onto the addendum to the Deal Barnier today promised on the backstop as the straw he needs to back the Deal