see also Fabricant's tweet tonight he is likely to switch from No Deal to the Deal
My reading of Fabricant's tweet is that he's unlikely to back the deal, and will use the DUP's objections as cover for voting against it.
Oh no, once the choice becomes the Deal v lengthy extension and EUref2 and possible No Brexit at all as it likely will do, Fabricant made clear in his tweet he would vote for the Deal as would most of the ERG
"Unless I am persuaded otherwise, I will vote for the #Deal IF the backstop is changed and IF the DUP believe it works for Northern Ireland."
Nowhere does he say he'd vote for the deal without changes to the backstop.
"I think a clean No Deal is right for the #UK But I do fear No Brexit at all. So unless I am persuaded otherwise, I will vote for the #Deal"
So Fabricant makes absolutely clear he will vote for the Deal over No Brexit at all and once it looks likely the Commons will vote down No Deal by a big margin and then vote for length extension of Art 50 and EUref2 if the Deal is rejected again then Fabricant will vote for the Deal as the only way to ensure Brexit happens, the backstop then becomes irrelevant
Do you want a bet on how Fabricant votes on the 12th?
see also Fabricant's tweet tonight he is likely to switch from No Deal to the Deal
My reading of Fabricant's tweet is that he's unlikely to back the deal, and will use the DUP's objections as cover for voting against it.
Oh no, once the choice becomes the Deal v lengthy extension and EUref2 and possible No Brexit at all as it likely will do, Fabricant made clear in his tweet he would vote for the Deal as would most of the ERG
"Unless I am persuaded otherwise, I will vote for the #Deal IF the backstop is changed and IF the DUP believe it works for Northern Ireland."
Nowhere does he say he'd vote for the deal without changes to the backstop.
"I think a clean No Deal is right for the #UK But I do fear No Brexit at all. So unless I am persuaded otherwise, I will vote for the #Deal"
So Fabricant makes absolutely clear he will vote for the Deal over No Brexit at all and once it looks likely the Commons will vote down No Deal by a big margin and then vote for length extension of Art 50 and EUref2 if the Deal is rejected again then Fabricant will vote for the Deal as the only way to ensure Brexit happens, the backstop then becomes irrelevant
Do you want a bet on how Fabricant votes on the 12th?
I will not just for the 12th, as I think it may take a third vote for the Deal to get through after the Commons votes against No Deal by a big margin and for extension of Article 50 if the Deal fails a second time.
I am willing to consider a small bet on those terms but not for the vote on the 12th alone
As a party they've not really arrived yet. But the system is tough on new arrivals to the standard order of things, and it's difficult to escape the conclusion they need some fresh jolt of energy. They've had their impact, and Labour in particular are reacting (bits of it in different ways)but where's their next big hit coming from?
The Opinium isn’t a bad poll for Labour given the events of the last week.
TIG look like ending up sacrificial lambs who helped push Labour towards a second EU vote .
If they were serious about becoming a new political force they would surely have done much more preparation before they launched. They seem to be no more than a small group of disgruntled MPs with no presence or reach outside the Palace of Westminster.
They might still get some more to join but really I think rather than just resigning the whip and sitting alone TIG just allows the disgruntled to not feel like outcasts and have some friends to chat to !
Don’t get me wrong I like most of the TIG . But don’t see this going anywhere .
My red line for Labour was a softer Brexit not no Brexit . And most of my friends who voted Labour were in the same camp . I never expected them to push for a second vote .
I think with time though the EU has become a bigger issue because of the inept government negotiations .
Initially after the vote many Remainers were in the okay it’s happened , very unhappy about it but let’s gets an orderly exit that keeps close ties with the EU .
Now because of the no deal fantasists the anger has gone through the roof because Remainers feel that we’re being asked to accept not only an exit but the worst possible outcome .
And this has now led to even more division . If no deal happens I’m afraid there’s no chance to reconcile the country.
We're dealing with the failure of Brexit. Remainers might reconcile to damage limitation. Leavers voted FOR certain things: take control, get an unloved EU out of their lives, an independent trade policy, reduced immigration. The horribly compromised Brexit they will actually get, where the UK is a disempowered satellite of the EU is the opposite of what they voted for, hence their ever more extreme positions.
The rational next step would be to say, this isn't working out, let's take a pause. Unfortunately people are over invested.
The Opinium isn’t a bad poll for Labour given the events of the last week.
TIG look like ending up sacrificial lambs who helped push Labour towards a second EU vote .
If they were serious about becoming a new political force they would surely have done much more preparation before they launched. They seem to be no more than a small group of disgruntled MPs with no presence or reach outside the Palace of Westminster.
That's because the only thing they certainly agree on is they want to stop Brexit and don't want Corbyn to be Prime Minister, both of which are outside the control of anyone but Westminster at the moment.
Feels like their gamble was either they would help force parliament as a whole toward a new referendum and that's it, which would be worth it even if they do not become a new force, or their stance in wanting that to prevent a chaotic Brexit would, if unsuccessful, see them as the natural home for the disaffected and they would become a new force.
My red line for Labour was a softer Brexit not no Brexit . And most of my friends who voted Labour were in the same camp . I never expected them to push for a second vote .
I think with time though the EU has become a bigger issue because of the inept government negotiations .
Initially after the vote many Remainers were in the okay it’s happened , very unhappy about it but let’s gets an orderly exit that keeps close ties with the EU .
Now because of the no deal fantasists the anger has gone through the roof because Remainers feel that we’re being asked to accept not only an exit but the worst possible outcome .
And this has now led to even more division . If no deal happens I’m afraid there’s no chance to reconcile the country.
We're dealing with the failure of Brexit. Remainers might reconcile to damage limitation. Leavers voted FOR certain things: take control, get an unloved EU out of their lives, an independent trade policy, reduced immigration. The horribly compromised Brexit they will actually get, where the UK is a disempowered satellite of the EU is the opposite of what they voted for, hence their ever more extreme positions.
The rational next step would be to say, this isn't working out, let's take a pause. Unfortunately people are over invested.
EU net migration to the UK is already well down after the Brexit vote, on a 52% to 48% narrow Leave win Deal Brexit or Norway/EEA Brexit reflects the will of the country, Leave would need to have won at least 60% to 40%+ for No Deal Brexit to reflect the will of the country and it failed to do so.
see also Fabricant's tweet tonight he is likely to switch from No Deal to the Deal
My reading of Fabricant's tweet is that he's unlikely to back the deal, and will use the DUP's objections as cover for voting against it.
Oh no, once the choice becomes the Deal v lengthy extension and EUref2 and possible No Brexit at all as it likely will do, Fabricant made clear in his tweet he would vote for the Deal as would most of the ERG
"Unless I am persuaded otherwise, I will vote for the #Deal IF the backstop is changed and IF the DUP believe it works for Northern Ireland."
Nowhere does he say he'd vote for the deal without changes to the backstop.
"I think a clean No Deal is right for the #UK But I do fear No Brexit at all. So unless I am persuaded otherwise, I will vote for the #Deal"
So Fabricant makes absolutely clear he will vote for the Deal over No Brexit at all and once it looks likely the Commons will vote down No Deal by a big margin and then vote for length extension of Art 50 and EUref2 if the Deal is rejected again then Fabricant will vote for the Deal as the only way to ensure Brexit happens, the backstop then becomes irrelevant
Do you want a bet on how Fabricant votes on the 12th?
No. I will only consider a bet that Fabricant eventually votes for the Deal
My red line for Labour was a softer Brexit not no Brexit . And most of my friends who voted Labour were in the same camp . I never expected them to push for a second vote .
I think with time though the EU has become a bigger issue because of the inept government negotiations .
Initially after the vote many Remainers were in the okay it’s happened , very unhappy about it but let’s gets an orderly exit that keeps close ties with the EU .
Now because of the no deal fantasists the anger has gone through the roof because Remainers feel that we’re being asked to accept not only an exit but the worst possible outcome .
And this has now led to even more division . If no deal happens I’m afraid there’s no chance to reconcile the country.
We're dealing with the failure of Brexit. Remainers might reconcile to damage limitation. Leavers voted FOR certain things: take control, get an unloved EU out of their lives, an independent trade policy, reduced immigration. The horribly compromised Brexit they will actually get, where the UK is a disempowered satellite of the EU is the opposite of what they voted for, hence their ever more extreme positions.
The rational next step would be to say, this isn't working out, let's take a pause. Unfortunately people are over invested.
EU net migration to the UK is already well down after the Brexit vote, on a 52% to 48% narrow Leave win Deal Brexit or Norway/EEA Brexit reflects the will of the country, Leave would need to have won at least 60% to 40%+ for No Deal Brexit to reflect the will of the country and it failed to do so.
Accepted. Immigration is reduced thanks to the UK becoming a less attractive place for people with marketable skills and choices to come to. Nevertheless the Brexit failure is caused by it not delivering on the other reasons why people voted Leave.
The Opinium isn’t a bad poll for Labour given the events of the last week.
TIG look like ending up sacrificial lambs who helped push Labour towards a second EU vote .
If they were serious about becoming a new political force they would surely have done much more preparation before they launched. They seem to be no more than a small group of disgruntled MPs with no presence or reach outside the Palace of Westminster.
They might still get some more to join but really I think rather than just resigning the whip and sitting alone TIG just allows the disgruntled to not feel like outcasts and have some friends to chat to !
Don’t get me wrong I like most of the TIG . But don’t see this going anywhere .
No, not at the moment. Though further splits in both main parties cannot be ruled out.
But the latter-day SDP they are not - the SDP hit 50% in the polls in the first flush of enthusiasm. The TIGs have little more than 1/10 of that.
As a party they've not really arrived yet. But the system is tough on new arrivals to the standard order of things, and it's difficult to escape the conclusion they need some fresh jolt of energy. They've had their impact, and Labour in particular are reacting (bits of it in different ways)but where's their next big hit coming from?
I would assume that their next big hit will be when they formally announce that they are a political party. If there are to be further significant defections to them then I would expect them to be after that rather than before... surely more tempting for disgruntled MPs to defect to something that exists rather than something that almost exists?
The Opinium isn’t a bad poll for Labour given the events of the last week.
TIG look like ending up sacrificial lambs who helped push Labour towards a second EU vote .
If they were serious about becoming a new political force they would surely have done much more preparation before they launched. They seem to be no more than a small group of disgruntled MPs with no presence or reach outside the Palace of Westminster.
Yes, their launch put me in mind of Liz Kendall's run for the Labour leadership. TIG's we should do things that work is no more a policy platform than Kendall's we should do things that are popular.
My red line for Labour was a softer Brexit not no Brexit . And most of my friends who voted Labour were in the same camp . I never expected them to push for a second vote .
I think with time though the EU has become a bigger issue because of the inept government negotiations .
Initially after the vote many Remainers were in the okay it’s happened , very unhappy about it but let’s gets an orderly exit that keeps close ties with the EU .
Now because of the no deal fantasists the anger has gone through the roof because Remainers feel that we’re being asked to accept not only an exit but the worst possible outcome .
And this has now led to even more division . If no deal happens I’m afraid there’s no chance to reconcile the country.
We're dealing with the failure of Brexit. Remainers might reconcile to damage limitation. Leavers voted FOR certain things: take control, get an unloved EU out of their lives, an independent trade policy, reduced immigration. The horribly compromised Brexit they will actually get, where the UK is a disempowered satellite of the EU is the opposite of what they voted for, hence their ever more extreme positions.
The rational next step would be to say, this isn't working out, let's take a pause. Unfortunately people are over invested.
EU net migration to the UK is already well down after the Brexit vote, on a 52% to 48% narrow Leave win Deal Brexit or Norway/EEA Brexit reflects the will of the country, Leave would need to have won at least 60% to 40%+ for No Deal Brexit to reflect the will of the country and it failed to do so.
Accepted. Immigration is reduced thanks to the UK becoming a less attractive place for people with marketable skills and choices to come to. Nevertheless the Brexit failure is caused by it not delivering on the other reasons why people voted Leave.
The Deal leaves the Single Market and the Customs Union too once a trade deal is agreed without the damage of No Deal, as far as I can see the Deal best respects the reasons people voted Leave while also avoiding the No Deal Leave lack a mandate for, short of that then Norway/EEA Brexit also reflects the best Brexit for the median voter given the narrow 4% Leave win
"Hampstead and Kilburn’s constituency Labour Party were last night and today vehemently denying new stories of anti-semitism, insisting that several affiliates – not just the Jewish Labour Movement – saw delegates told that they would be unable to vote at Thursday’s annual general meeting.
It all blew up after the former council leader Sarah Hayward tweeted: “It has been reported to me that JLM (yes, the Jewish Labour Movement) delegates to Hampstead & Kilburn GC were *barred* from taking part in its AGM last night. If this is true @JennieGenSec needs to investigate urgently to find out why and if reasons were valid. Looks awful.”"
Its rather simple really. a large proportion of Labour voters are Asian and, they tend to have more offspring per capita and hence, will eventually increase the Labour vote.
The Opinium isn’t a bad poll for Labour given the events of the last week.
TIG look like ending up sacrificial lambs who helped push Labour towards a second EU vote .
If they were serious about becoming a new political force they would surely have done much more preparation before they launched. They seem to be no more than a small group of disgruntled MPs with no presence or reach outside the Palace of Westminster.
Yes, their launch put me in mind of Liz Kendall's run for the Labour leadership. TIG's we should do things that work is no more a policy platform than Kendall's we should do things that are popular.
"Politics is broken" is about as meaningful as "Brexit means Brexit"
I think it's probably a typo for both Tories and Labour (probably should be 37% and 35% respectively)
Appears to be a Labour bounceback as people forget about the Independents' launch. Certainly in today's canvass I didn't meet anyone who mention them and the Labour vote seemed quite healthy, whereas last week it was merely OK and several people talked about the Indies. I did meet one guy today who was spitting fury at the parties' failure to deliver Brexit, but he was so angry that it wasn't clear how he voted before: "You're all thieves and parasites!" "Possibly, but as a matter of interest how did you vote last time?" "Scum!
I agree with Mike's article - there were a good many Labour Leave voters, but I didn't find many who felt it was top priority. Generally Labour voters dislike Tory governments more than the EU...
Not sure where labour's bounceback is Nick
On the same basis Opinium last wekk had Labour on 32% with the Tories on 40%.
I think it's probably a typo for both Tories and Labour (probably should be 37% and 35% respectively)
Appears to be a Labour bounceback as people forget about the Independents' launch. Certainly in today's canvass I didn't meet anyone who mention them and the Labour vote seemed quite healthy, whereas last week it was merely OK and several people talked about the Indies. I did meet one guy today who was spitting fury at the parties' failure to deliver Brexit, but he was so angry that it wasn't clear how he voted before: "You're all thieves and parasites!" "Possibly, but as a matter of interest how did you vote last time?" "Scum!
I agree with Mike's article - there were a good many Labour Leave voters, but I didn't find many who felt it was top priority. Generally Labour voters dislike Tory governments more than the EU...
Not sure where labour's bounceback is Nick
Well, they're up one point since last week, which obviously is margin-of-error stuff. Though a relief that the floor isn't completely falling out from under them, really.
With opinium they are down 4 according to wiki
That was the standard voting intention result excluding TIG from the options.
TIG lose all their seats but gain Portsmouth South?
Very unlikely indeed. Portsmouth South was a shock Labour gain from third place in 2017 . Likely Labour hold next time given first term incumbency and anti-Tory vote consolidating behind new Labour MP.
IFOP has Macron beating Le Pen 56% to 44% in the second round in 2022, down on the 66% to 33% he beat Le Pen by in 2017.
Both are up in the first round though with Macron up to 30% and Le Pen to 27% with Wauquiez for Les Republicains down to just 8% and Melenchon down to 12%
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign. They have no past record of support from previous elections to justify more than minimal airtime - ie on a par with OMRLP. The Brexit party will face the same problem so we should see far less of Farage compared with when he led UKIP.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign. They have no past record of support from previous elections to justify more than minimal airtime - ie on a par with OMRLP. The Brexit party will face the same problem so we should see far less of Farage compared with when he led UKIP.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign.
Tiny Invisible Group?
Indeed . The only way forward would be some accommodation with the LibDems similar to that agreed between the SDP and the Liberals in 1981 . By forming an Alliance the SDP was able to feature in airtime otherwise set aside for the Liberals. An additional problem next time though will arise from the LibDems own airtime entitlement being reduced following two weak general election performances in 2015 and 2017 - so even if they enter some form of electoral agreement they will have less airtime to share between them.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign.
Tiny Invisible Group?
Indeed . The only way forward would be some accommodation with the LibDems similar to that agreed between the SDP and the Liberals in 1981 . By forming an Alliance the SDP was able to feature in airtime otherwise set aside for the Liberals. An additional problem next time though will arise from the LibDems own airtime entitlement being reduced following two weak general election performances in 2015 and 2017 - so even if they enter some form of electoral agreement they will have less airtime to share between them.
Though airtime on national channels is less important than it was in a world of social media. The days when nearly everyone watched News at Ten or whatever are long gone.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign. They have no past record of support from previous elections to justify more than minimal airtime - ie on a par with OMRLP. The Brexit party will face the same problem so we should see far less of Farage compared with when he led UKIP.
Provided the Deal is passed or we get soft Brexit I would expect neither TIG nor the Brexit Party to gain much traction.
If we end up revoking Brexit and Remaining with or without EUref2 or with No Deal it would be a different story. If we revoke Brexit and Remain in the EU I would expect large numbers of Tory Leavers and a smaller number of Labour Leavers to defect to Farage's Brexit Party and if we end up with No Deal I would expect to see significant numbers of Labour and Tory Remainers defect to TIG, then broadcasters would have to reflect their rising poll ratings
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign.
Tiny Invisible Group?
Indeed . The only way forward would be some accommodation with the LibDems similar to that agreed between the SDP and the Liberals in 1981 . By forming an Alliance the SDP was able to feature in airtime otherwise set aside for the Liberals. An additional problem next time though will arise from the LibDems own airtime entitlement being reduced following two weak general election performances in 2015 and 2017 - so even if they enter some form of electoral agreement they will have less airtime to share between them.
Though airtime on national channels is less important than it was in a world of social media. The days when nearly everyone watched News at Ten or whatever are long gone.
That is true but there would still be an impact on key campaign events such as any Debates that might be arranged. Both main parties should be able to resist the inclusion of TIG and the Brexit parties - indeed UKIP , the Greens and even the LibDems are likely to struggle to justify inclusion next time. The SNP and Plaid could reasonably be restricted to events in their respective regions.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign.
Tiny Invisible Group?
Terribly Important Group. Based on how much people won't stop talking about them.
They're a silly season distraction. People like to talk about cranks and oddballs, UKIP used to get a lot of attention for a bunch of fruitcakes, nuts and loons long before they had major electoral breakthroughs , , , and ironically if it wasn't for the stupid PR system that the EU uses they would likely never have had a major electoral breakthrough.
Its ironic but its possible that there would never have been an EU referendum in the first place were it not for Blair using the Parliament Act to scrap First Past the Post and move to PR for the European Elections. PR gave seats which gave the oxygen of publicity to Farage's party. Just as he never got elected to Parliament, Farage would likely never have been elected to the European Parliament if it wasn't for PR.
It is interesting though that the conjunction used is when and not if. I wonder if that's blind optimism from Brady or if he knows something. There seem to be more and more smoke signals lately that a compromise is close.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign. They have no past record of support from previous elections to justify more than minimal airtime - ie on a par with OMRLP. The Brexit party will face the same problem so we should see far less of Farage compared with when he led UKIP.
Provided the Deal is passed or we get soft Brexit I would expect neither TIG nor the Brexit Party to gain much traction.
If we end up revoking Brexit and Remaining with or without EUref2 or with No Deal it would be a different story. If we revoke Brexit and Remain in the EU I would expect large numbers of Tory Leavers and a smaller number of Labour Leavers to defect to Farage's Brexit Party and if we end up with No Deal I would expect to see significant numbers of Labour and Tory Remainers defect to TIG, then broadcasters would have to reflect their rising poll ratings
Poll ratings alone would not suffice - they would have to be backed by support in elections over time.Hypothetical poll figures would count for nothing. Moreover, TIG has yet to even register as a political party and given the uncertainty of election timing it is far from clear they will be given the opportunity to build up any record of support. The Brexit Party will find its vote split with UKIP - and whilst the latter increasingly resemble a ragbag of extremist eccentrics , it will still have some brand recognition built up over time and limited entitlement to airtime based on its success in 2015 and at EU elections etc.TIG has none of that.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign. They have no past record of support from previous elections to justify more than minimal airtime - ie on a par with OMRLP. The Brexit party will face the same problem so we should see far less of Farage compared with when he led UKIP.
Provided the Deal is passed or we get soft Brexit I would expect neither TIG nor the Brexit Party to gain much traction.
If we end up revoking Brexit and Remaining with or without EUref2 or with No Deal it would be a different story. If we revoke Brexit and Remain in the EU I would expect large numbers of Tory Leavers and a smaller number of Labour Leavers to defect to Farage's Brexit Party and if we end up with No Deal I would expect to see significant numbers of Labour and Tory Remainers defect to TIG, then broadcasters would have to reflect their rising poll ratings
Poll ratings alone would not suffice - they would have to be backed by support in elections over time.Hypothetical poll figures would count for nothing. Moreover, TIG has yet to even register as a political party and given the uncertainty of election timing it is far from clear they will be given the opportunity to build up any record of support. The Brexit Party will find its vote split with UKIP - and whilst the latter increasingly resemble a ragbag of extremist eccentrics , it will still have some brand recognition built up over time and limited entitlement to airtime based on its success in 2015 and at EU elections etc.TIG has none of that.
If we stay in the Brexit Party could do very well at the European Elections and that combined with poll ratings was sufficient for UKIP to be made a "major party" by the broadcasters in the 2010-15 Parliament despite the lack of record at Westminster.
It is interesting though that the conjunction used is when and not if. I wonder if that's blind optimism from Brady or if he knows something. There seem to be more and more smoke signals lately that a compromise is close.
Yes. There will be a compromise. Whether it will be the "right" compromise to switch 111 votes is the important question though.
I'm not old enough to remember but from what I've read the SDP/Liberal Alliance were given a lot of media coverage in 1983 and that seems to be the precedent to look at justin124.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign. They have no past record of support from previous elections to justify more than minimal airtime - ie on a par with OMRLP. The Brexit party will face the same problem so we should see far less of Farage compared with when he led UKIP.
Provided the Deal is passed or we get soft Brexit I would expect neither TIG nor the Brexit Party to gain much traction.
If we end up revoking Brexit and Remaining with or without EUref2 or with No Deal it would be a different story. If we revoke Brexit and Remain in the EU I would expect large numbers of Tory Leavers and a smaller number of Labour Leavers to defect to Farage's Brexit Party and if we end up with No Deal I would expect to see significant numbers of Labour and Tory Remainers defect to TIG, then broadcasters would have to reflect their rising poll ratings
Poll ratings alone would not suffice - they would have to be backed by support in elections over time.Hypothetical poll figures would count for nothing. Moreover, TIG has yet to even register as a political party and given the uncertainty of election timing it is far from clear they will be given the opportunity to build up any record of support. The Brexit Party will find its vote split with UKIP - and whilst the latter increasingly resemble a ragbag of extremist eccentrics , it will still have some brand recognition built up over time and limited entitlement to airtime based on its success in 2015 and at EU elections etc.TIG has none of that.
If we stay in the Brexit Party could do very well at the European Elections and that combined with poll ratings was sufficient for UKIP to be made a "major party" by the broadcasters in the 2010-15 Parliament despite the lack of record at Westminster.
Thought Farage was about to be charged with serious shit?
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign.
Tiny Invisible Group?
Terribly Important Group. Based on how much people won't stop talking about them.
They're a silly season distraction. People like to talk about cranks and oddballs, UKIP used to get a lot of attention for a bunch of fruitcakes, nuts and loons long before they had major electoral breakthroughs , , , and ironically if it wasn't for the stupid PR system that the EU uses they would likely never have had a major electoral breakthrough.
Its ironic but its possible that there would never have been an EU referendum in the first place were it not for Blair using the Parliament Act to scrap First Past the Post and move to PR for the European Elections. PR gave seats which gave the oxygen of publicity to Farage's party. Just as he never got elected to Parliament, Farage would likely never have been elected to the European Parliament if it wasn't for PR.
The choice of PR system is up to the country and not decided by the EU - hence STV is used in Ireland.
And if you review the 2014 results, where UKIP topped the poll in very many council areas, they would likely have done pretty well under FPTnP anyway.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign. They have no past record of support from previous elections to justify more than minimal airtime - ie on a par with OMRLP. The Brexit party will face the same problem so we should see far less of Farage compared with when he led UKIP.
Having been a BBC editor for many year the broadcasting rules are not there to underpin the status quo which is what you are saying. In any case the more Corbyn and whoever the CON leader is are featured the better it will be for TIG.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign. They have no past record of support from previous elections to justify more than minimal airtime - ie on a par with OMRLP. The Brexit party will face the same problem so we should see far less of Farage compared with when he led UKIP.
Provided the Deal is passed or we get soft Brexit I would expect neither TIG nor the Brexit Party to gain much traction.
If we end up revoking Brexit and Remaining with or without EUref2 or with No Deal it would be a different story. If we revoke Brexit and Remain in the EU I would expect large numbers of Tory Leavers and a smaller number of Labour Leavers to defect to Farage's Brexit Party and if we end up with No Deal I would expect to see significant numbers of Labour and Tory Remainers defect to TIG, then broadcasters would have to reflect their rising poll ratings
Poll ratings alone would not suffice - they would have to be backed by support in elections over time.Hypothetical poll figures would count for nothing. Moreover, TIG has yet to even register as a political party and given the uncertainty of election timing it is far from clear they will be given the opportunity to build up any record of support. The Brexit Party will find its vote split with UKIP - and whilst the latter increasingly resemble a ragbag of extremist eccentrics , it will still have some brand recognition built up over time and limited entitlement to airtime based on its success in 2015 and at EU elections etc.TIG has none of that.
If we stay in the Brexit Party could do very well at the European Elections and that combined with poll ratings was sufficient for UKIP to be made a "major party" by the broadcasters in the 2010-15 Parliament despite the lack of record at Westminster.
We are less than three months from the EU elections and there are no obvious signs that the Brexit Party has yet taken off in a serious way. It will face a battle with UKIP to gain public attention . In the 2010 -15 Parliament UKIP was significantly aided by the formation of the Coalition in that the LibDems were no longer available as a vehicle for anti-establishment protest votes. A fair bit of UKIP's surge was unrelated to the EU in that - like the Greens to some extent - they picked up protest votes from people disillusioned with the main parties who in earlier Parliaments would have switched to the LibDems.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign. They have no past record of support from previous elections to justify more than minimal airtime - ie on a par with OMRLP. The Brexit party will face the same problem so we should see far less of Farage compared with when he led UKIP.
Having been a BBC editor for many year the broadcasting rules are not there to underpin the status quo which is what you are saying. In any case the more Corbyn and whoever the CON leader is are featured the better it will be for TIG.
I'm not old enough to remember but from what I've read the SDP/Liberal Alliance were given a lot of media coverage in 1983 and that seems to be the precedent to look at justin124.
Yes but they'd won several by-elections and had been on 50% in the polls in December 1981.
I'm not old enough to remember but from what I've read the SDP/Liberal Alliance were given a lot of media coverage in 1983 and that seems to be the precedent to look at justin124.
Indeed so but that was on account of the SDP and Liberals having entered an Alliance. Had that not happened, the SDP on its own would have had much more limited coverage in 1983 given that it had no electoral history to justify it. As it happened, the SDP had achieved some success at by elections - but with Liberal support. By elections are also far less common nowadays.
They're a silly season distraction. People like to talk about cranks and oddballs, UKIP used to get a lot of attention for a bunch of fruitcakes, nuts and loons long before they had major electoral breakthroughs , , , and ironically if it wasn't for the stupid PR system that the EU uses they would likely never have had a major electoral breakthrough.
Its ironic but its possible that there would never have been an EU referendum in the first place were it not for Blair using the Parliament Act to scrap First Past the Post and move to PR for the European Elections. PR gave seats which gave the oxygen of publicity to Farage's party. Just as he never got elected to Parliament, Farage would likely never have been elected to the European Parliament if it wasn't for PR.
Respectfully disagree. UKIP topped the polls in 2014, which would usually mean they did less well in seat terms under PR than they would've done under FPTP.
In any case, it was the 13% they got in 2015 that lit the fire under the referendum. No one cares about the EU elections, which is why UKIP topped them in the first place.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign.
Tiny Invisible Group?
Terribly Important Group. Based on how much people won't stop talking about them.
They're a silly season distraction. People like to talk about cranks and oddballs, UKIP used to get a lot of attention for a bunch of fruitcakes, nuts and loons long before they had major electoral breakthroughs , , , and ironically if it wasn't for the stupid PR system that the EU uses they would likely never have had a major electoral breakthrough.
Its ironic but its possible that there would never have been an EU referendum in the first place were it not for Blair using the Parliament Act to scrap First Past the Post and move to PR for the European Elections. PR gave seats which gave the oxygen of publicity to Farage's party. Just as he never got elected to Parliament, Farage would likely never have been elected to the European Parliament if it wasn't for PR.
The choice of PR system is up to the country and not decided by the EU - hence STV is used in Ireland.
And if you review the 2014 results, where UKIP topped the poll in very many council areas, they would likely have done pretty well under FPTnP anyway.
The 2014 results did not happen in a vacuum. Before 2014 UKIP had come forward every prior election and Farage had a very famous platform in the European Parliament to which he made many polemic speeches. The same happened with the SNP in Scotland. Without the PR switch its unlikely that UKIP would have ever got the publicity and then topped polls anywhere.
Off topic but one of my favourite YouTube videos nearly a decade ago was an autotune of Nigel Farage famously ranting in the European Parliament that was made into a song featuring the leader singer of Good Charlotte and also Americans talking about what we'd later term Fake News. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpYIKF1wuyE
I'm not old enough to remember but from what I've read the SDP/Liberal Alliance were given a lot of media coverage in 1983 and that seems to be the precedent to look at justin124.
Yes but they'd won several by-elections and had been on 50% in the polls in December 1981.
Precisely though, polls matter. justin was claiming they don't.
If Tiggers start polling like the SDP did then the media will find a justification to give them coverage.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign.
Tiny Invisible Group?
Terribly Important Group. Based on how much people won't stop talking about them.
They're a silly season distraction. People like to talk about cranks and oddballs, UKIP used to get a lot of attention for a bunch of fruitcakes, nuts and loons long before they had major electoral breakthroughs , , , and ironically if it wasn't for the stupid PR system that the EU uses they would likely never have had a major electoral breakthrough.
Its ironic but its possible that there would never have been an EU referendum in the first place were it not for Blair using the Parliament Act to scrap First Past the Post and move to PR for the European Elections. PR gave seats which gave the oxygen of publicity to Farage's party. Just as he never got elected to Parliament, Farage would likely never have been elected to the European Parliament if it wasn't for PR.
The choice of PR system is up to the country and not decided by the EU - hence STV is used in Ireland.
And if you review the 2014 results, where UKIP topped the poll in very many council areas, they would likely have done pretty well under FPTnP anyway.
Indeed. ANY Party which tops the poll does better under FPTP than under any system of PR.
I'm not old enough to remember but from what I've read the SDP/Liberal Alliance were given a lot of media coverage in 1983 and that seems to be the precedent to look at justin124.
Yes but they'd won several by-elections and had been on 50% in the polls in December 1981.
Precisely though, polls matter. justin was claiming they don't.
If Tiggers start polling like the SDP did then the media will find a justification to give them coverage.
It is interesting though that the conjunction used is when and not if. I wonder if that's blind optimism from Brady or if he knows something. There seem to be more and more smoke signals lately that a compromise is close.
Yes. There will be a compromise. Whether it will be the "right" compromise to switch 111 votes is the important question though.
If not, the compromise will require May stepping down. Note it is Sir Graham Brady speaking.
I'm not old enough to remember but from what I've read the SDP/Liberal Alliance were given a lot of media coverage in 1983 and that seems to be the precedent to look at justin124.
Yes but they'd won several by-elections and had been on 50% in the polls in December 1981.
Precisely though, polls matter. justin was claiming they don't.
If Tiggers start polling like the SDP did then the media will find a justification to give them coverage.
I am not saying that polls don't matter - but that on their own they are not sufficient. I cannot see the Electoral Commission taking account of hypothetical polls in respect of a new party with little or no electoral history behind it. Were we to face an election - say - this Autumn , how many by elections will TIG and the Brexit Party have contested?
I'm not old enough to remember but from what I've read the SDP/Liberal Alliance were given a lot of media coverage in 1983 and that seems to be the precedent to look at justin124.
The SDP were a fully functioning political party from day 1 - they had organisers, membership (drawn from a precursor group called the Campaign for Social Democracy) and nationally-known names lined up to fight the first byelection that came along. The launch was followed by an exodus of (mostly) Labour councillors and activists and they soon had branches in most constituencies. There was a revivalist atmosphere about them, which turned out to be short-lived, but at the time it really seemed as though they were about to make a historic breakthrough. TIG has none of this, and it is hard to see how it can achieve it.
They're a silly season distraction. People like to talk about cranks and oddballs, UKIP used to get a lot of attention for a bunch of fruitcakes, nuts and loons long before they had major electoral breakthroughs , , , and ironically if it wasn't for the stupid PR system that the EU uses they would likely never have had a major electoral breakthrough.
Its ironic but its possible that there would never have been an EU referendum in the first place were it not for Blair using the Parliament Act to scrap First Past the Post and move to PR for the European Elections. PR gave seats which gave the oxygen of publicity to Farage's party. Just as he never got elected to Parliament, Farage would likely never have been elected to the European Parliament if it wasn't for PR.
Respectfully disagree. UKIP topped the polls in 2014, which would usually mean they did less well in seat terms under PR than they would've done under FPTP.
In any case, it was the 13% they got in 2015 that lit the fire under the referendum. No one cares about the EU elections, which is why UKIP topped them in the first place.
Completely disagree. What lit the fire under the referendum was the Conservatives pledging to have one and winning a majority in 2015, the 13% UKIP got in 2015 meant nothing by that point and could have prevented an EU referendum ironically if Milliband had managed to win the election.
The 2014 victory was also after it was Tory policy so doesn't count either. Plus of course the 2014 victory only happened following achieving many, many years of progress under PR. Farage was first elected in 1999 despite coming fifth in his constituency with under 10% of the vote.
Amusingly that same constituency and the switch to PR also saw the first election of both Chris Huhne and Caroline Lucas. Neither of them, nor Farage, would have been elected and given a platform where it not for the switch from FPTP to PR.
The Opinium isn’t a bad poll for Labour given the events of the last week.
TIG look like ending up sacrificial lambs who helped push Labour towards a second EU vote .
Maybe coming off the fence on Brexit is helping at last.
I'm sure it is. It was always policy to eventually go for a second referendum, and the gamble seemed to be that no matter how reluctant the leadership appeared to be Remainers would be damn grateful when the policy was adopted and would not go anywhere else. In the end some MPs have gone, but the rest do appear to be mollified by the changed position and at the least not inclined to rock the boat in terms of further defections, and the membership is probably delighted even if elements of it are, like some MPs, still angry about other things.
I'm not old enough to remember but from what I've read the SDP/Liberal Alliance were given a lot of media coverage in 1983 and that seems to be the precedent to look at justin124.
Yes but they'd won several by-elections and had been on 50% in the polls in December 1981.
Precisely though, polls matter. justin was claiming they don't.
If Tiggers start polling like the SDP did then the media will find a justification to give them coverage.
They won't and therefore the media won't
They definitely won't if Labour can find a way to kill the AS stories.
And if no - or if it is not the "right" - compromise, what then?
Yes, plenty of room for further vacillation and equivocation there. Has it really come down to this legal Brexiteer Star Chamber that was being mentioned the other day? If enough of the 'right sort' in terms of Brexit fervour can be persuaded to agree Cox's codpiece achieves, well, anything, can that mollify the DUP, which then brings along several dozen more Tory votes.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign. They have no past record of support from previous elections to justify more than minimal airtime - ie on a par with OMRLP. The Brexit party will face the same problem so we should see far less of Farage compared with when he led UKIP.
Having been a BBC editor for many year the broadcasting rules are not there to underpin the status quo which is what you are saying. In any case the more Corbyn and whoever the CON leader is are featured the better it will be for TIG.
LOL Forever the optimist
Good to see you posting BJO.
There was speculation the other day that you'd decided to LEAVE PB but I had a feeling you were going to REMAIN.
I'm not old enough to remember but from what I've read the SDP/Liberal Alliance were given a lot of media coverage in 1983 and that seems to be the precedent to look at justin124.
They did. But they had big figures. Led by an ex-Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary and Education Minister. As an equivalent, a TIG with Balls, Rudd and Greening, rather than Umunna, Soubry and Gapes.
I'm not old enough to remember but from what I've read the SDP/Liberal Alliance were given a lot of media coverage in 1983 and that seems to be the precedent to look at justin124.
Yes but they'd won several by-elections and had been on 50% in the polls in December 1981.
Precisely though, polls matter. justin was claiming they don't.
If Tiggers start polling like the SDP did then the media will find a justification to give them coverage.
They won't and therefore the media won't
They definitely won't if Labour can find a way to kill the AS stories.
Oh, they keep exacerbating them? Carry on.
Except however much people might wish otherwise the anti-semitism stories have been hanging around for years, and every now and then escalates into full blown crisis, then dies back down. On its own it clearly was not going to lead to a split, which is why the added problem of Brexit was required to create the Tiggers in the first place. Now the Tiggers have achieved a policy change (or at least they can spin it that way and have some reasoning for that too) they don't seem to have much directly to contribute other than to serve as a threat to the leadership of both parties, but particularly Labour - don't upset us too much or we might go Tigger.
I'd love for there to be a new political force and hope they can surprise me, but what else will they be around for now Labour are doing what they wanted? Even if Corbyn does not satisfy those that remain, Watson is reassuring them that the party is doing something.
Yes, there's still a lot of 'surely no one, not even X, will do Y?' kind of reasoning in assuming what we might perceive to be rational. But even if secretly not all the ERG are happy with no deal, or would indeed regard staying in as a horrific outcome, they might still take action to cause either no deal or one of the options that lead to remain, rather than back the deal which would be to admit they were either wrong before or were beaten.
I agree. What raison d’etre do the ERG have beyond opposition to the EU? As soon as they “succeed” they die. It’s a quasi party based on grievance, and the more grievance it has to feed on the better.
I'm not old enough to remember but from what I've read the SDP/Liberal Alliance were given a lot of media coverage in 1983 and that seems to be the precedent to look at justin124.
They did. But they had big figures. Led by an ex-Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary and Education Minister. As an equivalent, a TIG with Balls, Rudd and Greening, rather than Umunna, Soubry and Gapes.
Jenkins was also a former Chancellor and Deputy Labour Leader.Several of the TIG defectors from Labour can be reasonably be accused of having been complicit in the war crimes of the Blair Government.
I was out to dinner with Irish American friends last night, and got a complete earful on Brexit and the Backstop last night,
Their view was that the DUP hated the Good Friday Agreement, and couldn't wait to tear it up. They honestly believe that the UK in general and the DUP in particular are insincere in their goal of a technological solution, and that they will use it as an excuse to separate Catholics in Northern Ireland from their cousins in the Republic.
They were rather drunk, somewhat better informed than I expected, and they were angry.
And it got me thinking.
We are doing a very poor job of understanding the people we're in a negotiation with. They doubt our sincerity as much as we doubt their's. (And, by the way, Michael Fabricant saying that the DUP has to be in favour of the deal sounds to Irish ears like "f*ck the Catholics".)
But the good news is that this does offer a way forward. Rather than fixating on the backstop iteself, we need to concentrate on making it so that the Republic doesn't worry that we're going to backslide. If we can convince them of our sincerity to produce a technical solution, they will be less desperate to protect themselves through the backstop.
They're a silly season distraction. People like to talk about cranks and oddballs, UKIP used to get a lot of attention for a bunch of fruitcakes, nuts and loons long before they had major electoral breakthroughs , , , and ironically if it wasn't for the stupid PR system that the EU uses they would likely never have had a major electoral breakthrough.
Its ironic but its possible that there would never have been an EU referendum in the first place were it not for Blair using the Parliament Act to scrap First Past the Post and move to PR for the European Elections. PR gave seats which gave the oxygen of publicity to Farage's party. Just as he never got elected to Parliament, Farage would likely never have been elected to the European Parliament if it wasn't for PR.
Respectfully disagree. UKIP topped the polls in 2014, which would usually mean they did less well in seat terms under PR than they would've done under FPTP.
In any case, it was the 13% they got in 2015 that lit the fire under the referendum. No one cares about the EU elections, which is why UKIP topped them in the first place.
Completely disagree. What lit the fire under the referendum was the Conservatives pledging to have one and winning a majority in 2015, the 13% UKIP got in 2015 meant nothing by that point and could have prevented an EU referendum ironically if Milliband had managed to win the election.
The 2014 victory was also after it was Tory policy so doesn't count either. Plus of course the 2014 victory only happened following achieving many, many years of progress under PR. Farage was first elected in 1999 despite coming fifth in his constituency with under 10% of the vote.
Amusingly that same constituency and the switch to PR also saw the first election of both Chris Huhne and Caroline Lucas. Neither of them, nor Farage, would have been elected and given a platform where it not for the switch from FPTP to PR.
Chicken and egg. The Tories needed to promise a referendum to halt the otherwise unstoppable rise of Ukip, and Ukip were popular because they were promising a referendum first.
It's impossible to prove either way, but Ukip did pretty well in the '09 EU elections and then did pretty dismally in the GE the following year. I remember that being followed by a sigh of relief from the main parties that the danger had passed, and people were prepared to register protest votes when it didn't matter, and revert to the main parties when it did. Later years disproved that thesis.
Conclusion: no one cares about Euro elections and it was Ukip's performances in locals and general election polling that forced Cameron to offer a commitment to a referendum.
I was out to dinner with Irish American friends last night, and got a complete earful on Brexit and the Backstop last night,
Their view was that the DUP hated the Good Friday Agreement, and couldn't wait to tear it up. They honestly believe that the UK in general and the DUP in particular are insincere in their goal of a technological solution, and that they will use it as an excuse to separate Catholics in Northern Ireland from their cousins in the Republic.
They were rather drunk, somewhat better informed than I expected, and they were angry.
And it got me thinking.
We are doing a very poor job of understanding the people we're in a negotiation with. They doubt our sincerity as much as we doubt their's. (And, by the way, Michael Fabricant saying that the DUP has to be in favour of the deal sounds to Irish ears like "f*ck the Catholics".)
But the good news is that this does offer a way forward. Rather than fixating on the backstop iteself, we need to concentrate on making it so that the Republic doesn't worry that we're going to backslide. If we can convince them of our sincerity to produce a technical solution, they will be less desperate to protect themselves through the backstop.
Convincing the Irish that the British are sincere about trying to protect their interests is not something that could be realistically tackled by a Tory government, still less one propped up by the DUP.
All kinds of assertion on here as usual - surely it's much easier to look at WHAT OFCOM HAS ACTUALLY SAID.
So here goes, PER OFCOM:
"we place greater weight on the actual performance of a political party in elections over opinion poll data...………….
whilst putting less weight on levels of current support as opposed to actual performance, we put weight on evidence of current support that is objective and measurable. One type of objective and measurable evidence of current support is opinion poll data, where it is available...…"
So IF, say, TIG consistently polled 25% in polls then OFCOM absolutely would take account of that info even without any historical electoral record.
But they'll take a rounded view - ie not just one poll, not just one month - but a high poll rating consistently sustained over several months up to a GE absolutely would be reflected.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign. They have no past record of support from previous elections to justify more than minimal airtime - ie on a par with OMRLP. The Brexit party will face the same problem so we should see far less of Farage compared with when he led UKIP.
Having been a BBC editor for many year the broadcasting rules are not there to underpin the status quo which is what you are saying. In any case the more Corbyn and whoever the CON leader is are featured the better it will be for TIG.
LOL Forever the optimist
Good to see you posting BJO.
There was speculation the other day that you'd decided to LEAVE PB but I had a feeling you were going to REMAIN.
No just not responding to 2 fellow PBers.
Although I have now become CLP Treasurer and am trying to produce Accounts for a meeting later this month Standing as a Councillor as well although i think the LDs will win this one.
So posting between now and May will be a little limited
I was out to dinner with Irish American friends last night, and got a complete earful on Brexit and the Backstop last night,
Their view was that the DUP hated the Good Friday Agreement, and couldn't wait to tear it up. They honestly believe that the UK in general and the DUP in particular are insincere in their goal of a technological solution, and that they will use it as an excuse to separate Catholics in Northern Ireland from their cousins in the Republic.
They were rather drunk, somewhat better informed than I expected, and they were angry.
And it got me thinking.
We are doing a very poor job of understanding the people we're in a negotiation with. They doubt our sincerity as much as we doubt their's. (And, by the way, Michael Fabricant saying that the DUP has to be in favour of the deal sounds to Irish ears like "f*ck the Catholics".)
But the good news is that this does offer a way forward. Rather than fixating on the backstop iteself, we need to concentrate on making it so that the Republic doesn't worry that we're going to backslide. If we can convince them of our sincerity to produce a technical solution, they will be less desperate to protect themselves through the backstop.
Convincing the Irish that the British are sincere about trying to protect their interests is not something that could be realistically tackled by a Tory government, still less one propped up by the DUP.
The DUP were once implacably opposed to SF, for decades on end. Yet, eventually, Ian Paisley Sr. was happy to share power with Martin McGuiness.
I was out to dinner with Irish American friends last night, and got a complete earful on Brexit and the Backstop last night,
Their view was that the DUP hated the Good Friday Agreement, and couldn't wait to tear it up. They honestly believe that the UK in general and the DUP in particular are insincere in their goal of a technological solution, and that they will use it as an excuse to separate Catholics in Northern Ireland from their cousins in the Republic.
They were rather drunk, somewhat better informed than I expected, and they were angry.
And it got me thinking.
We are doing a very poor job of understanding the people we're in a negotiation with. They doubt our sincerity as much as we doubt their's. (And, by the way, Michael Fabricant saying that the DUP has to be in favour of the deal sounds to Irish ears like "f*ck the Catholics".)
But the good news is that this does offer a way forward. Rather than fixating on the backstop iteself, we need to concentrate on making it so that the Republic doesn't worry that we're going to backslide. If we can convince them of our sincerity to produce a technical solution, they will be less desperate to protect themselves through the backstop.
You’ve only just realised that British bad faith is suspected?
I was out to dinner with Irish American friends last night, and got a complete earful on Brexit and the Backstop last night,
Their view was that the DUP hated the Good Friday Agreement, and couldn't wait to tear it up. They honestly believe that the UK in general and the DUP in particular are insincere in their goal of a technological solution, and that they will use it as an excuse to separate Catholics in Northern Ireland from their cousins in the Republic.
They were rather drunk, somewhat better informed than I expected, and they were angry.
And it got me thinking.
We are doing a very poor job of understanding the people we're in a negotiation with. They doubt our sincerity as much as we doubt their's. (And, by the way, Michael Fabricant saying that the DUP has to be in favour of the deal sounds to Irish ears like "f*ck the Catholics".)
But the good news is that this does offer a way forward. Rather than fixating on the backstop iteself, we need to concentrate on making it so that the Republic doesn't worry that we're going to backslide. If we can convince them of our sincerity to produce a technical solution, they will be less desperate to protect themselves through the backstop.
...Why do you assume Irish Americans are anything like the Irish?
I was out to dinner with Irish American friends last night, and got a complete earful on Brexit and the Backstop last night,
Their view was that the DUP hated the Good Friday Agreement, and couldn't wait to tear it up. They honestly believe that the UK in general and the DUP in particular are insincere in their goal of a technological solution, and that they will use it as an excuse to separate Catholics in Northern Ireland from their cousins in the Republic.
They were rather drunk, somewhat better informed than I expected, and they were angry.
And it got me thinking.
We are doing a very poor job of understanding the people we're in a negotiation with. They doubt our sincerity as much as we doubt their's. (And, by the way, Michael Fabricant saying that the DUP has to be in favour of the deal sounds to Irish ears like "f*ck the Catholics".)
But the good news is that this does offer a way forward. Rather than fixating on the backstop iteself, we need to concentrate on making it so that the Republic doesn't worry that we're going to backslide. If we can convince them of our sincerity to produce a technical solution, they will be less desperate to protect themselves through the backstop.
Convincing the Irish that the British are sincere about trying to protect their interests is not something that could be realistically tackled by a Tory government, still less one propped up by the DUP.
The DUP were once implacably opposed to SF, for decades on end. Yet, eventually Ian Paisley Sr. was happy to share power with Martin McGuiness.
So we can resolve these concerns over the backstop and possible sincerity on finding a solution if we give it a few decades?
I'm not old enough to remember but from what I've read the SDP/Liberal Alliance were given a lot of media coverage in 1983 and that seems to be the precedent to look at justin124.
The SDP were a fully functioning political party from day 1 - they had organisers, membership (drawn from a precursor group called the Campaign for Social Democracy) and nationally-known names lined up to fight the first byelection that came along. The launch was followed by an exodus of (mostly) Labour councillors and activists and they soon had branches in most constituencies. There was a revivalist atmosphere about them, which turned out to be short-lived, but at the time it really seemed as though they were about to make a historic breakthrough. TIG has none of this, and it is hard to see how it can achieve it.
There were 2 months between the Limehouse declaration, and the launch of the SDP, it wasn't immediate by any stretch of the imagination.
Apparently the Opinium figures excluding TIG are Con 40 Lab 34 LD 9. Counterintuitively the implication is that TIG is now hitting the Tories and the LibDems more than Labour!
I was out to dinner with Irish American friends last night, and got a complete earful on Brexit and the Backstop last night,
Their view was that the DUP hated the Good Friday Agreement, and couldn't wait to tear it up. They honestly believe that the UK in general and the DUP in particular are insincere in their goal of a technological solution, and that they will use it as an excuse to separate Catholics in Northern Ireland from their cousins in the Republic.
They were rather drunk, somewhat better informed than I expected, and they were angry.
And it got me thinking.
We are doing a very poor job of understanding the people we're in a negotiation with. They doubt our sincerity as much as we doubt their's. (And, by the way, Michael Fabricant saying that the DUP has to be in favour of the deal sounds to Irish ears like "f*ck the Catholics".)
But the good news is that this does offer a way forward. Rather than fixating on the backstop iteself, we need to concentrate on making it so that the Republic doesn't worry that we're going to backslide. If we can convince them of our sincerity to produce a technical solution, they will be less desperate to protect themselves through the backstop.
Convincing the Irish that the British are sincere about trying to protect their interests is not something that could be realistically tackled by a Tory government, still less one propped up by the DUP.
The DUP were once implacably opposed to SF, for decades on end. Yet, eventually Ian Paisley Sr. was happy to share power with Martin McGuiness.
So we can resolve these concerns over the backstop and possible sincerity on finding a solution if we give it a few decades?
The way things are going, kle4, it probably will take decades
I was out to dinner with Irish American friends last night, and got a complete earful on Brexit and the Backstop last night,
Their view was that the DUP hated the Good Friday Agreement, and couldn't wait to tear it up. They honestly believe that the UK in general and the DUP in particular are insincere in their goal of a technological solution, and that they will use it as an excuse to separate Catholics in Northern Ireland from their cousins in the Republic.
They were rather drunk, somewhat better informed than I expected, and they were angry.
And it got me thinking.
We are doing a very poor job of understanding the people we're in a negotiation with. They doubt our sincerity as much as we doubt their's. (And, by the way, Michael Fabricant saying that the DUP has to be in favour of the deal sounds to Irish ears like "f*ck the Catholics".)
But the good news is that this does offer a way forward. Rather than fixating on the backstop iteself, we need to concentrate on making it so that the Republic doesn't worry that we're going to backslide. If we can convince them of our sincerity to produce a technical solution, they will be less desperate to protect themselves through the backstop.
You’ve only just realised that British bad faith is suspected?
I'm not old enough to remember but from what I've read the SDP/Liberal Alliance were given a lot of media coverage in 1983 and that seems to be the precedent to look at justin124.
Yes but they'd won several by-elections and had been on 50% in the polls in December 1981.
Precisely though, polls matter. justin was claiming they don't.
If Tiggers start polling like the SDP did then the media will find a justification to give them coverage.
These MoS headlines remind me - did anything more come up about that whole GCHQ cover up story? Seemed like a pretty big deal, but I don't recall hearing any more about it.
TIG will be denied the oxygen of coverage by Broadcasters during a general election campaign.
Tiny Invisible Group?
Terribly Important Group. Based on how much people won't stop talking about them.
They're a silly season distraction. People like to talk about cranks and oddballs, UKIP used to get a lot of attention for a bunch of fruitcakes, nuts and loons long before they had major electoral breakthroughs , , , and ironically if it wasn't for the stupid PR system that the EU uses they would likely never have had a major electoral breakthrough.
Its ironic but its possible that there would never have been an EU referendum in the first place were it not for Blair using the Parliament Act to scrap First Past the Post and move to PR for the European Elections. PR gave seats which gave the oxygen of publicity to Farage's party. Just as he never got elected to Parliament, Farage would likely never have been elected to the European Parliament if it wasn't for PR.
The choice of PR system is up to the country and not decided by the EU - hence STV is used in Ireland.
And if you review the 2014 results, where UKIP topped the poll in very many council areas, they would likely have done pretty well under FPTnP anyway.
Indeed. ANY Party which tops the poll does better under FPTP than under any system of PR.
Yes and if it weren't for the switch to PR the party to have topped the polls in 2014 would have almost certainly have been the Tories. If not them, then it would have been Labour.
PR broke the two party grip in Europe. In 1994 Labour and the Tories won 80/84 seats in Europe* and besides the SNP having perennially won 1 or 2 seats, in 1994 the 2 that Paddy Ashdown's Lib Dems won were the first GB seats to ever not go to the Tories or Labour.
Five years later and a switch to PR saw third parties win 19/84 seats instead of 4/84 including the first ever UKIP, Green and Plaid Cymru European seats. That gave a platform for the third parties to build on.
I was out to dinner with Irish American friends last night, and got a complete earful on Brexit and the Backstop last night,
Their view was that the DUP hated the Good Friday Agreement, and couldn't wait to tear it up. They honestly believe that the UK in general and the DUP in particular are insincere in their goal of a technological solution, and that they will use it as an excuse to separate Catholics in Northern Ireland from their cousins in the Republic.
They were rather drunk, somewhat better informed than I expected, and they were angry.
And it got me thinking.
We are doing a very poor job of understanding the people we're in a negotiation with. They doubt our sincerity as much as we doubt their's. (And, by the way, Michael Fabricant saying that the DUP has to be in favour of the deal sounds to Irish ears like "f*ck the Catholics".)
But the good news is that this does offer a way forward. Rather than fixating on the backstop iteself, we need to concentrate on making it so that the Republic doesn't worry that we're going to backslide. If we can convince them of our sincerity to produce a technical solution, they will be less desperate to protect themselves through the backstop.
Convincing the Irish that the British are sincere about trying to protect their interests is not something that could be realistically tackled by a Tory government, still less one propped up by the DUP.
The DUP were once implacably opposed to SF, for decades on end. Yet, eventually Ian Paisley Sr. was happy to share power with Martin McGuiness.
So we can resolve these concerns over the backstop and possible sincerity on finding a solution if we give it a few decades?
The way things are going, kle4, it probably will take decades
I trust those with children and grandchildren are preparing them appropriately to take on the task.
Comments
I am willing to consider a small bet on those terms but not for the vote on the 12th alone
Don’t get me wrong I like most of the TIG . But don’t see this going anywhere .
The rational next step would be to say, this isn't working out, let's take a pause. Unfortunately people are over invested.
Feels like their gamble was either they would help force parliament as a whole toward a new referendum and that's it, which would be worth it even if they do not become a new force, or their stance in wanting that to prevent a chaotic Brexit would, if unsuccessful, see them as the natural home for the disaffected and they would become a new force.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/migration-to-the-uk-from-eu-countries-falls-to-lowest-level-in-10-years-figures-show-a4078801.html
NCP=New Centrist Party ie TIG
But the latter-day SDP they are not - the SDP hit 50% in the polls in the first flush of enthusiasm. The TIGs have little more than 1/10 of that.
It all blew up after the former council leader Sarah Hayward tweeted: “It has been reported to me that JLM (yes, the Jewish Labour Movement) delegates to Hampstead & Kilburn GC were *barred* from taking part in its AGM last night. If this is true @JennieGenSec needs to investigate urgently to find out why and if reasons were valid. Looks awful.”"
https://richardosley.com/2019/03/02/everyone-was-treated-equally-says-hk-labour-party-over-delegates-claims/
Both are up in the first round though with Macron up to 30% and Le Pen to 27% with Wauquiez for Les Republicains down to just 8% and Melenchon down to 12%
https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/116145-Rapport-06.02.2019.pdf
https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1101946729254055938
If we end up revoking Brexit and Remaining with or without EUref2 or with No Deal it would be a different story. If we revoke Brexit and Remain in the EU I would expect large numbers of Tory Leavers and a smaller number of Labour Leavers to defect to Farage's Brexit Party and if we end up with No Deal I would expect to see significant numbers of Labour and Tory Remainers defect to TIG, then broadcasters would have to reflect their rising poll ratings
Its ironic but its possible that there would never have been an EU referendum in the first place were it not for Blair using the Parliament Act to scrap First Past the Post and move to PR for the European Elections. PR gave seats which gave the oxygen of publicity to Farage's party. Just as he never got elected to Parliament, Farage would likely never have been elected to the European Parliament if it wasn't for PR.
The Brexit Party will find its vote split with UKIP - and whilst the latter increasingly resemble a ragbag of extremist eccentrics , it will still have some brand recognition built up over time and limited entitlement to airtime based on its success in 2015 and at EU elections etc.TIG has none of that.
And if you review the 2014 results, where UKIP topped the poll in very many council areas, they would likely have done pretty well under FPTnP anyway.
In any case, it was the 13% they got in 2015 that lit the fire under the referendum. No one cares about the EU elections, which is why UKIP topped them in the first place.
Off topic but one of my favourite YouTube videos nearly a decade ago was an autotune of Nigel Farage famously ranting in the European Parliament that was made into a song featuring the leader singer of Good Charlotte and also Americans talking about what we'd later term Fake News.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpYIKF1wuyE
If Tiggers start polling like the SDP did then the media will find a justification to give them coverage.
The 2014 victory was also after it was Tory policy so doesn't count either. Plus of course the 2014 victory only happened following achieving many, many years of progress under PR. Farage was first elected in 1999 despite coming fifth in his constituency with under 10% of the vote.
Amusingly that same constituency and the switch to PR also saw the first election of both Chris Huhne and Caroline Lucas. Neither of them, nor Farage, would have been elected and given a platform where it not for the switch from FPTP to PR.
Oh, they keep exacerbating them? Carry on.
A lot now on the shoulders of Cox then.
There was speculation the other day that you'd decided to LEAVE PB but I had a feeling you were going to REMAIN.
I'd love for there to be a new political force and hope they can surprise me, but what else will they be around for now Labour are doing what they wanted? Even if Corbyn does not satisfy those that remain, Watson is reassuring them that the party is doing something.
Their view was that the DUP hated the Good Friday Agreement, and couldn't wait to tear it up. They honestly believe that the UK in general and the DUP in particular are insincere in their goal of a technological solution, and that they will use it as an excuse to separate Catholics in Northern Ireland from their cousins in the Republic.
They were rather drunk, somewhat better informed than I expected, and they were angry.
And it got me thinking.
We are doing a very poor job of understanding the people we're in a negotiation with. They doubt our sincerity as much as we doubt their's. (And, by the way, Michael Fabricant saying that the DUP has to be in favour of the deal sounds to Irish ears like "f*ck the Catholics".)
But the good news is that this does offer a way forward. Rather than fixating on the backstop iteself, we need to concentrate on making it so that the Republic doesn't worry that we're going to backslide. If we can convince them of our sincerity to produce a technical solution, they will be less desperate to protect themselves through the backstop.
It's impossible to prove either way, but Ukip did pretty well in the '09 EU elections and then did pretty dismally in the GE the following year. I remember that being followed by a sigh of relief from the main parties that the danger had passed, and people were prepared to register protest votes when it didn't matter, and revert to the main parties when it did. Later years disproved that thesis.
Conclusion: no one cares about Euro elections and it was Ukip's performances in locals and general election polling that forced Cameron to offer a commitment to a referendum.
So here goes, PER OFCOM:
"we place greater weight on the actual performance of a political party in elections over opinion poll data...………….
whilst putting less weight on levels of current support as opposed to actual performance, we put weight on evidence of current support that is objective and measurable. One type of objective and measurable evidence of current support is opinion poll data, where it is available...…"
So IF, say, TIG consistently polled 25% in polls then OFCOM absolutely would take account of that info even without any historical electoral record.
But they'll take a rounded view - ie not just one poll, not just one month - but a high poll rating consistently sustained over several months up to a GE absolutely would be reflected.
Link - bottom of P9, top of P10.
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0030/98148/Due-impartiality-and-elections-statement.pdf
Although I have now become CLP Treasurer and am trying to produce Accounts for a meeting later this month Standing as a Councillor as well although i think the LDs will win this one.
So posting between now and May will be a little limited
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/how-martin-mcguinness-and-ian-paisley-forged-an-unlikely-friendship-35550640.html
...Why do you assume Irish Americans are anything like the Irish?
If they are not its another unwarranted smear
PR broke the two party grip in Europe. In 1994 Labour and the Tories won 80/84 seats in Europe* and besides the SNP having perennially won 1 or 2 seats, in 1994 the 2 that Paddy Ashdown's Lib Dems won were the first GB seats to ever not go to the Tories or Labour.
Five years later and a switch to PR saw third parties win 19/84 seats instead of 4/84 including the first ever UKIP, Green and Plaid Cymru European seats. That gave a platform for the third parties to build on.
* Excluding Northern Ireland