politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders aged 77 and Biden 76 move to 2nd and 3rd favourite in
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders aged 77 and Biden 76 move to 2nd and 3rd favourite in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Age is an interesting thing. After a period where youth and modernity seemed to be in fashion, we now seem to have moved to a notion where age=experience=competence.
I wonder the extent to which there is any kind of evidence an older electorate is drawn to older candidates. Trump is in his 70s, so is Cable. Corbyn is 69 and May a spring chicken at 62. I've heard it said 70 is the new 50 which presumably means in the future you'll be in the middle of your working life as the retirement age will be 100.
Did the older voters go for Blair and Cameron because they looked like ideal husbands for their daughters? Just a thought.
Let's hope the disappointment doesn't descend into a return of hostile rhetoric.
If you want hostile rhetoric, it's not that far from Vietnam to Kashmir and it's welcome that some reality has intruded in the form of Imran Khan. However, Modi seems less able to ride the nationalist tiger (as it were) and the risk of further escalation continues. If only Trump and Kim had gone to New Delhi and Islamabad perhaps they might yet achieve something worthwhile.
Klobuchar is my best result, followed by Warren and Biden.
If you think Biden will run but not win, wait till he announces to lay him
She should definitely be in double-digits, IMHO.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/political-scandal-worsens-for-canadas-justin-trudeau-11551312209
"TTAWA—A political firestorm surrounding Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau became more damaging Wednesday, as his ex-justice minister accused his top aides of repeatedly pressuring her to drop the prosecution of a global engineering and construction firm.
The testimony delivered by Jody Wilson-Raybould to a parliamentary committee offered the most detailed version yet of events fueling a scandal that risks upending Mr. Trudeau’s re-election effort later this year"
One thing I did notice is that Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Donald Trump were all born in 1946 - the start of the baby boomer generation. When Clinton was first elected he was 46, reasonably young, were Trump to stay in office until the end of two terms he would be 78, really quite old, but it's the same generation in control.
https://twitter.com/ezralevant/status/1100940359553699841 EDIT: I see Flashman beat me to it. This is a more concise read, though, if you're in a rush.
EU migration falling rapidly and now replaced by non EU migration . So Brits lose their freedom of movement and immigration doesn’t fall overall but is replaced with countries that don’t offer us that reciprocity.
Amazing how quiet Farage and the rest are now about immigration .
Change in immigrants y/e Sep 2018 +318 thousand
Change in immigrants working y/e Sep 2018 -141 thousand
There is something seriously wrong somewhere.
And yes, thank you the clarification on Biden - I've been working on the assumption that him running has been mostly priced in, but the chance that he won't is greater than implied by his current odds.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/methodologies/guidancenoteforrevisingofficiallongtermnoneustudentmigrationestimatesyearendingseptember2016
Instead Harris seems to have assumed the Jeb Bush role in the betting, which requires Marco Rubio logic to work.
The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."
https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633
I'll also point out that there continues to be net migration from the EU even though the number of people from the EU in work has fallen.
https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/1100871793966018560
His 10.5 on Betfair to win the election is slightly better than the accumulated odds of him being nominated (6) and of the Dems winning the election (1.7).
Personally I think he's too old, but he could be the best shot the Dems have of getting the Donald out of the White House.
Red on Bernie.
My wife came across a menu card from a local restaurant and conference venue around 1972 and the prices stopped us in our tracks
Afternoon tea 27p
3 course meal 75p
Difficult to realise that was the pricing 47 years ago
""Women account for 94% of those who have never worked and are currently looking after the family or home, rising to 96% in cases where there is a dependent child in the family.""
https://www.theglobeandmail.com
Apparently O'Rourke is poised to announce soon - I guess he's possible, though I'd see him more as a VP candidate.
Any chance Leavers might admit they were sold a pup .
What were earnings in 1972 - my first job was in 1979 and my annual gross salary was £3,100.
Running a small business under the VAT threshold, often considered to be burdensome, was a doddle by comparison - keep records, report your annual profit or loss, done. Yet we expect people out of work to have the organisation and focus of a professional manager. It's not surprising that some effectively give up.
I voted remain but believe we must leave and make the best of it. However, if ERG shoot themselves in the foot and we end up remaining that is their problem. I do dread a referendum as I am certain it will be divisive and a horrible experience for the Country. Unless the result is clear it will not resolve anything
Oh, hang on...
(Takes off his pinny and tries to go and do something more manly.)
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator
(the back to the 1850s & 1750s mobs may have to wait a wee while for capital punishment, tuberculosis and child labour to really take off)
If you think back, lots of "working class" families would all work at the same place, generation after generation all miners or factory workers etc. So even if Cousin Steve was a bit thick or had a gammy leg, somebody in the family probably knew somebody who knew somebody at the factory who could get him a job doing something there.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6753703/Stacey-Dooley-criticised-Labour-MP-David-Lammy.html
Does anyone know whether any of the Democrat contenders are left handers?
https://literacytrust.org.uk/parents-and-families/adult-literacy/
This also has other effects:
"Half of Britain’s prisoners are functionally illiterate."
https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/jun/15/reading-for-freedom-life-changing-scheme-dreamt-up-by-prison-pen-pals-shannon-trust-action-for-equity-award
This is a massive problem: boys and girls being let down by parents, families, schools and the authorities (probably in that order), and therefore having massively reduced chances in the future. The number of jobs where someone who is functionally innumerate and/or illiterate can do must be reducing.
When I went to Uni in 73 I had to have an arrangement to be able to withdraw cash from a specific branch of Lloyds bank set up. It was limited to £15/week.
If african nations could manage to govern themselves than we wouldn’t need quite so many white saviours. Lammy is just a poundshop Al Sharpton. The efforts made by primarily white NGOs like the gates foundation has been truly inspirational. Work on vaccination, hiv and aids medication, aid stepping in while tribes slaughter each other.
I don’t know who Stacey Dooley is (just googled her), but a thirty year old who has dedicated her career to drawing attention to child labour and improving the lives of women in poorer parts of the world, is probably asked or volunteered to help draw attention to a particular problem to help raise funds to make it better.
And he attacks her for it, for being white.
What have we become, seriously?
Be advised, anyone who considers this. Always sign on even if you don't need the cash and think you will find a job within a few months. In case you fall ill.
The benefits system pays your NI stamps.
Hardly anyone knows this, but if you drop off NI during the two years prior to being ill, you lose entitlement to contributory ESA.
You can catch up your pension entitlement for lost years of NI at a later date.
You cannot catch up your NI for ESA. If you don't have an NI record for the two years prior to falling ill or disabled you will not get ESA.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/27/canada-trudeau-snc-lavalin-jody-wilson-raybould
"“Justin Trudeau can no longer hide the fact that he was at the center of an attempt to interfere in a criminal prosecution. He must come clean with Canadians,” Conservative leader Andrew Scheer said on Wednesday before the testimony.
Scheer called on Trudeau to stand down and demanded a police inquiry.
“He can no longer, with a clear conscience, continue to lead this nation,” he said.
The scandal has already cost Trudeau his closest adviser: Gerald Butts resigned earlier this month, but denied he had or others had improperly pressured Wilson-Raybould."
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1100795332424802305
Apparently ‘Tommy’ isn’t his real name....
So while the headline figure evokes familiar Benefits Street stereotypes (or 'sleeping off a life on benefits' as trust fund millionaire George Osborne put it) the truth is rather more mundane. As is almost invariably the case when economic data are reported in the media, I should add.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1101071670750654464
Off Topic
Mrs. May has already confirmed that she will resign as Prime Minister prior to the next General Election.
There has to be a good chance that she will depart just as soon as (always assuming) she succeeds in steering Britain to a successful Brexit conclusion prior to 29th March, which is actually now looking a tad more likely than has previously been the case.
So who is likely to succeed her? There are, of course all the usual suspects including Boris, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Amber Rudd, etc all of whom are available at odds of between 6/1 - 20/1, but none of whom I particulary fancy to emerge as the winner.
So who you might ask is currently my pick? Drum Roll!! None other than the person whom as I type these words, is working day and night, using his unique combination of charm, intellect and somewhat bombastic negotiating skills to persuade the EU powers that be to accept a compromise agreement on the all-important Irish backstop problem, which is currently preventing such a deal. I give you, Ladies & Gentlemen, none other than Geoffrey Cox Q.C. M.P. Should he come home with a form of words which prove acceptable to the HoC in the next crucial vote on 12 March, he will be revered as something of a hero, not only among Tory MPs (and probably a good few Labour MPs to boot), but crucially to the Party's membership as a whole ... more than enough, in my opinion, to land him the top job, probably accompanied by a ringing endorsement from La May.
Quite apart from his attractive political personality, he also has an excellent profile for the job - just short of 60, a West Country MP for 14 years with a decent majority and of course with a legal background, possessing an excellent brain.
The best odds on him becoming the next PM are from the Betfair Exchange where I asked for and obtained odds of 65, equivalent to 60.8/1 net of their 5% commission ... cracking good value imho. Those of a nervous opinion might prefer to back Cox to become the next Conservative Leader to allow, therefore, for circumstances in which May was forced to call a GE, whilst still leader, which she then goes on to lose. Here, Betfair's odds are a slightly more modest 47 (43.7/1 net of comm'n).
As ever, DYOR.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SqRNUUOk7s
https://order-order.com/2019/02/28/jackie-walker-shares-anti-semitic-imagery-defending-chris-williamson/
I am on at 140/1 from a while ago.
Not entirely convinced he is the right person to take on Jezza and his campaigning though.
There are far more important things going on - the lead story in today's Standard is "Please stop 'influencing' on our doorsteps, Notting Hill residents tell 'unapologetic' Instagrammers". It even outranks the Dooley Lammy twitter spat.
Richpeople in Notting Hill are important - poor girls in Bradford really aren't worthy of attention!
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/please-stop-influencing-on-our-doorsteps-notting-hill-residents-tell-unapologetic-social-media-a4078806.html
Relax...
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1101078711292567553
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1101030129055264770
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrHoMSRZOS4