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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders aged 77 and Biden 76 move to 2nd and 3rd favourite in

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders aged 77 and Biden 76 move to 2nd and 3rd favourite in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited February 2019
    First, as a second referendum will be among future choices.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Morning all :)

    Age is an interesting thing. After a period where youth and modernity seemed to be in fashion, we now seem to have moved to a notion where age=experience=competence.

    I wonder the extent to which there is any kind of evidence an older electorate is drawn to older candidates. Trump is in his 70s, so is Cable. Corbyn is 69 and May a spring chicken at 62. I've heard it said 70 is the new 50 which presumably means in the future you'll be in the middle of your working life as the retirement age will be 100.

    Did the older voters go for Blair and Cameron because they looked like ideal husbands for their daughters? Just a thought.
  • stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Age is an interesting thing. After a period where youth and modernity seemed to be in fashion, we now seem to have moved to a notion where age=experience=competence.

    I wonder the extent to which there is any kind of evidence an older electorate is drawn to older candidates. Trump is in his 70s, so is Cable. Corbyn is 69 and May a spring chicken at 62. I've heard it said 70 is the new 50 which presumably means in the future you'll be in the middle of your working life as the retirement age will be 100.

    Did the older voters go for Blair and Cameron because they looked like ideal husbands for their daughters? Just a thought.

    I wouldn't regard either Blair or Cameron as ideal husbands for my daughters. One caused Iraq the other Brexit.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    What are we to make of events in Asia this morning? In Hanoi, the style of Trump-Kim bumped sharply into reality. Full denuclearisation in exchange for full lifting of sanctions - it reminded me of Reykjavik in 1986 when Reagan and Gorbachev contemplated a seemingly unreachable utopia and drew back.

    Let's hope the disappointment doesn't descend into a return of hostile rhetoric.

    If you want hostile rhetoric, it's not that far from Vietnam to Kashmir and it's welcome that some reality has intruded in the form of Imran Khan. However, Modi seems less able to ride the nationalist tiger (as it were) and the risk of further escalation continues. If only Trump and Kim had gone to New Delhi and Islamabad perhaps they might yet achieve something worthwhile.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Lay the hell out of both of them while you can, is my two cents.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745

    I wouldn't regard either Blair or Cameron as ideal husbands for my daughters. One caused Iraq the other Brexit.

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing, though, Mike? In the mid-90s and the mid noughties Blair and Cameron respectively were genuinely popular. The only difference between them and the likes of Corbyn and May (apart from 20 years) is that the vilification of Corbyn and May started sooner.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Despite Sanders and Biden's age etc, if I was in Mike's shoes I'd be laying Harris. In fact I have done so but without the guaranteed profit element that backing early at high odds brings :).
    Klobuchar is my best result, followed by Warren and Biden.

    If you think Biden will run but not win, wait till he announces to lay him
  • Looking at those odds I think the value is Elizabeth Warren. She's got lots of money, a dedicated fanbase, and a decent social media game. She's just about young enough, given her balancing feistiness. And being a woman should be an advantage: The women only add up to 34%, which seems low considering the depth of the female bench and how well women have been doing in other primaries.

    She should definitely be in double-digits, IMHO.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Not much wah wah for Trudeau being in the brown stuff.


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/political-scandal-worsens-for-canadas-justin-trudeau-11551312209


    "TTAWA—A political firestorm surrounding Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau became more damaging Wednesday, as his ex-justice minister accused his top aides of repeatedly pressuring her to drop the prosecution of a global engineering and construction firm.

    The testimony delivered by Jody Wilson-Raybould to a parliamentary committee offered the most detailed version yet of events fueling a scandal that risks upending Mr. Trudeau’s re-election effort later this year"
  • stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Age is an interesting thing. After a period where youth and modernity seemed to be in fashion, we now seem to have moved to a notion where age=experience=competence.

    I wonder the extent to which there is any kind of evidence an older electorate is drawn to older candidates. Trump is in his 70s, so is Cable. Corbyn is 69 and May a spring chicken at 62. I've heard it said 70 is the new 50 which presumably means in the future you'll be in the middle of your working life as the retirement age will be 100.

    Did the older voters go for Blair and Cameron because they looked like ideal husbands for their daughters? Just a thought.

    There's a risk of concluding too much from small samples and cognitive bias excluding evidence that doesn't fit. France currently has a very young President, I think Berlusconi was quite old towards the end of his time in charge in Italy - I just don't see a systematic pattern.

    One thing I did notice is that Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Donald Trump were all born in 1946 - the start of the baby boomer generation. When Clinton was first elected he was 46, reasonably young, were Trump to stay in office until the end of two terms he would be 78, really quite old, but it's the same generation in control.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2019
    Fascinating story I'd completely missed. Not sure of the implications on Canadian politics.
    https://twitter.com/ezralevant/status/1100940359553699841 EDIT: I see Flashman beat me to it. This is a more concise read, though, if you're in a rush.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited February 2019
    Endillion said:

    Lay the hell out of both of them while you can, is my two cents.

    If you don't think Biden will run, sure.

    Looking at those odds I think the value is Elizabeth Warren. She's got lots of money, a dedicated fanbase, and a decent social media game. She's just about young enough, given her balancing feistiness. And being a woman should be an advantage: The women only add up to 34%, which seems low considering the depth of the female bench and how well women have been doing in other primaries.

    She should definitely be in double-digits, IMHO.

    Warren is pushing 70 ! But yes her chances are greater than 6%.
  • Al Gore is younger than Biden and Sanders. Since, I assume, Gore is irreversibly of the past, I wonder why older candidates are being taken seriously.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited February 2019
    Who would have thought !

    EU migration falling rapidly and now replaced by non EU migration . So Brits lose their freedom of movement and immigration doesn’t fall overall but is replaced with countries that don’t offer us that reciprocity.

    Amazing how quiet Farage and the rest are now about immigration .
  • nico67 said:

    Who would have thought !

    EU migration falling rapidly and now replaced by non EU migration . So Brits lose their freedom of movement and immigration doesn’t fall overall but is replaced with countries that don’t offer us that reciprocity.

    Amazing how quiet Farage and the rest are now about immigration .

    Perhaps you'd like to reconcile this:

    Change in immigrants y/e Sep 2018 +318 thousand
    Change in immigrants working y/e Sep 2018 -141 thousand

    There is something seriously wrong somewhere.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Pulpstar said:

    Despite Sanders and Biden's age etc, if I was in Mike's shoes I'd be laying Harris. In fact I have done so but without the guaranteed profit element that backing early at high odds brings :).
    Klobuchar is my best result, followed by Warren and Biden.

    If you think Biden will run but not win, wait till he announces to lay him

    Same here on Harris.

    And yes, thank you the clarification on Biden - I've been working on the assumption that him running has been mostly priced in, but the chance that he won't is greater than implied by his current odds.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Who would have thought !

    EU migration falling rapidly and now replaced by non EU migration . So Brits lose their freedom of movement and immigration doesn’t fall overall but is replaced with countries that don’t offer us that reciprocity.

    Amazing how quiet Farage and the rest are now about immigration .

    Perhaps you'd like to reconcile this:

    Change in immigrants y/e Sep 2018 +318 thousand
    Change in immigrants working y/e Sep 2018 -141 thousand

    There is something seriously wrong somewhere.
    That’s because you’ve replaced productive EU nationals who work with lots who don’t from outside the EU . Family reunion makes up a lot of the non EU migration .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited February 2019
    Endillion said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Despite Sanders and Biden's age etc, if I was in Mike's shoes I'd be laying Harris. In fact I have done so but without the guaranteed profit element that backing early at high odds brings :).
    Klobuchar is my best result, followed by Warren and Biden.

    If you think Biden will run but not win, wait till he announces to lay him

    Same here on Harris.

    And yes, thank you the clarification on Biden - I've been working on the assumption that him running has been mostly priced in, but the chance that he won't is greater than implied by his current odds.
    It's early days but he's quite a way ahead in the polling, he should probably be the leader of the betting right now. I'm assuming he isn't because he's not declared yet.
    Instead Harris seems to have assumed the Jeb Bush role in the betting, which requires Marco Rubio logic to work.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Anorak said:

    Fascinating story I'd completely missed. Not sure of the implications on Canadian politics.
    ttps://twitter.com/ezralevant/status/1100940359553699841 EDIT: I see Flashman beat me to it. This is a more concise read, though, if you're in a rush.

    That looks seriously bad for Trudeau, anyone running a book on him resigning?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Who would have thought !

    EU migration falling rapidly and now replaced by non EU migration . So Brits lose their freedom of movement and immigration doesn’t fall overall but is replaced with countries that don’t offer us that reciprocity.

    Amazing how quiet Farage and the rest are now about immigration .

    Perhaps you'd like to reconcile this:

    Change in immigrants y/e Sep 2018 +318 thousand
    Change in immigrants working y/e Sep 2018 -141 thousand

    There is something seriously wrong somewhere.
    That’s because you’ve replaced productive EU nationals who work with lots who don’t from outside the EU . Family reunion makes up a lot of the non EU migration .
    Excellent work by the leavers stopping those sponging foreigners blocking-up our NHS. Buy yourself a beer, chaps. Pat yourselves on the back. Mission accomplished!
  • nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Who would have thought !

    EU migration falling rapidly and now replaced by non EU migration . So Brits lose their freedom of movement and immigration doesn’t fall overall but is replaced with countries that don’t offer us that reciprocity.

    Amazing how quiet Farage and the rest are now about immigration .

    Perhaps you'd like to reconcile this:

    Change in immigrants y/e Sep 2018 +318 thousand
    Change in immigrants working y/e Sep 2018 -141 thousand

    There is something seriously wrong somewhere.
    That’s because you’ve replaced productive EU nationals who work with lots who don’t from outside the EU . Family reunion makes up a lot of the non EU migration .
    As EU and non-EU migration are different things one isn't a replacement for another.

    I'll also point out that there continues to be net migration from the EU even though the number of people from the EU in work has fallen.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2019
    Trudeau's dramatic fall has nothing on this Canadian story, though. Can you still call someone a pathetic, hand-ringing jessie these days?
    https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/1100871793966018560
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited February 2019
    Endillion said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Despite Sanders and Biden's age etc, if I was in Mike's shoes I'd be laying Harris. In fact I have done so but without the guaranteed profit element that backing early at high odds brings :).
    Klobuchar is my best result, followed by Warren and Biden.

    If you think Biden will run but not win, wait till he announces to lay him

    Same here on Harris.

    And yes, thank you the clarification on Biden - I've been working on the assumption that him running has been mostly priced in, but the chance that he won't is greater than implied by his current odds.
    If I were a Republican strategist, the one Dem candidate I’d be seriously worried about would be Joe Biden.

    His 10.5 on Betfair to win the election is slightly better than the accumulated odds of him being nominated (6) and of the Dems winning the election (1.7).

    Personally I think he's too old, but he could be the best shot the Dems have of getting the Donald out of the White House.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited February 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Looking at those odds I think the value is Elizabeth Warren. She's got lots of money, a dedicated fanbase, and a decent social media game. She's just about young enough, given her balancing feistiness. And being a woman should be an advantage: The women only add up to 34%, which seems low considering the depth of the female bench and how well women have been doing in other primaries.

    She should definitely be in double-digits, IMHO.

    Warren is pushing 70 ! But yes her chances are greater than 6%.
    That's my definition of "just about young enough": 70 is pushing it but 77 is taking the piss.
  • I like Sherrod Brown and am green on him pretty reasonably. Also a wild bet on Buttigeig.

    Red on Bernie.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    For some that might be quite legitimate. Profoundly disabled, a family in which one stays at home etc. Watching the skint programme in Hartlepool i’m confused that this factual programme about people struggling with the welfare state presents a very different picture to the fictional movie about someone called a Daniel Blake. What is clear is that some people, for whatever reason seem to lack the capacity to work, and not through specific disability such as mental or physical impairment, but through their experiences either through their upbringing or their interactions with the welfare system.
  • Trivia

    My wife came across a menu card from a local restaurant and conference venue around 1972 and the prices stopped us in our tracks

    Afternoon tea 27p

    3 course meal 75p

    Difficult to realise that was the pricing 47 years ago
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    For some that might be quite legitimate. Profoundly disabled, a family in which one stays at home etc. Watching the skint programme in Hartlepool i’m confused that this factual programme about people struggling with the welfare state presents a very different picture to the fictional movie about someone called a Daniel Blake. What is clear is that some people, for whatever reason seem to lack the capacity to work, and not through specific disability such as mental or physical impairment, but through their experiences either through their upbringing or their interactions with the welfare system.
    I agree, there's nothing wrong with unpaid work. House husbands, for example.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    For some that might be quite legitimate. Profoundly disabled, a family in which one stays at home etc. Watching the skint programme in Hartlepool i’m confused that this factual programme about people struggling with the welfare state presents a very different picture to the fictional movie about someone called a Daniel Blake. What is clear is that some people, for whatever reason seem to lack the capacity to work, and not through specific disability such as mental or physical impairment, but through their experiences either through their upbringing or their interactions with the welfare system.
    I think that culture particularly in immigrant groups would be a big section of this.

    ""Women account for 94% of those who have never worked and are currently looking after the family or home, rising to 96% in cases where there is a dependent child in the family.""
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The front page of Canada's most influential newspaper doesn't make pretty reading for the prime minister.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Harris looks far too short - her poll ratings are OKish but not great, and she doesn't really have a strong base: too populist anti-banker for centrists, too centrist for progressives.

    Apparently O'Rourke is poised to announce soon - I guess he's possible, though I'd see him more as a VP candidate.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Non EU migration 261 thousand , EU migration 57 thousand .

    Any chance Leavers might admit they were sold a pup .
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    nico67 said:

    Non EU migration 261 thousand , EU migration 57 thousand .

    Any chance Leavers might admit they were sold a pup .

    There's no way house prices can become reasonable with migration as high as this.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I know Brexit and the US stuff is interesting, but what's everyones hot take on Stacey Dooley vs David Lammy ?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    Trivia

    My wife came across a menu card from a local restaurant and conference venue around 1972 and the prices stopped us in our tracks

    Afternoon tea 27p

    3 course meal 75p

    Difficult to realise that was the pricing 47 years ago

    15 shillings for a 3 course meal? Outrageous!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745

    Trivia

    My wife came across a menu card from a local restaurant and conference venue around 1972 and the prices stopped us in our tracks

    Afternoon tea 27p

    3 course meal 75p

    Difficult to realise that was the pricing 47 years ago

    I presume that wasn't the price for a cup of tea but for the full scones, sandwiches and the like.

    What were earnings in 1972 - my first job was in 1979 and my annual gross salary was £3,100.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    TGOHF said:

    notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    For some that might be quite legitimate. Profoundly disabled, a family in which one stays at home etc. Watching the skint programme in Hartlepool i’m confused that this factual programme about people struggling with the welfare state presents a very different picture to the fictional movie about someone called a Daniel Blake. What is clear is that some people, for whatever reason seem to lack the capacity to work, and not through specific disability such as mental or physical impairment, but through their experiences either through their upbringing or their interactions with the welfare system.
    I think that culture particularly in immigrant groups would be a big section of this.

    ""Women account for 94% of those who have never worked and are currently looking after the family or home, rising to 96% in cases where there is a dependent child in the family.""
    It is fascinating to see changes in work and what happens when migration takes over low pay jobs, and what happens in those areas whiteout the migration. I live in an area of very low migration, but there has been noticeable Eastern European migration. The interesting bit is the female participation. Female taxi drivers, bus drivers and other areas that aren’t really skilled but traditionally male dominated. In other areas of the country these quickly became jobs done by male migrants, up here however it is women who do them.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    For some that might be quite legitimate. Profoundly disabled, a family in which one stays at home etc. Watching the skint programme in Hartlepool i’m confused that this factual programme about people struggling with the welfare state presents a very different picture to the fictional movie about someone called a Daniel Blake. What is clear is that some people, for whatever reason seem to lack the capacity to work, and not through specific disability such as mental or physical impairment, but through their experiences either through their upbringing or their interactions with the welfare system.
    When I tried going on benefit after losing my seat - not really to get the very limited benefit but to experience the system so I'd know what I was talking about - I was really struck by the way the system discourages everything except getting a full-time job doing exactly what you did before. A chef at the next desk who wanted to take a two-week training courese in specialist cooking to improve his chances was politely told to stop messing about and concentrate on getting a job with his current skills. When I got small translation jobs I had pages of documentation to fill out and an effective tax rate of 85%, making me feel I was a mug either for taking them or for reporting them (yes, Universal Credit would have helped in my case). And I really don't have a bad work ethic - I've worked 6-7 days a week on two jobs for decades.

    Running a small business under the VAT threshold, often considered to be burdensome, was a doddle by comparison - keep records, report your annual profit or loss, done. Yet we expect people out of work to have the organisation and focus of a professional manager. It's not surprising that some effectively give up.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited February 2019
    nico67 said:

    Non EU migration 261 thousand , EU migration 57 thousand .

    Any chance Leavers might admit they were sold a pup .

    It is hardly surprising with all the uncertainty for EU immigration. Hopefully TM deal passes and EU and UK citizens rights will be secured

    I voted remain but believe we must leave and make the best of it. However, if ERG shoot themselves in the foot and we end up remaining that is their problem. I do dread a referendum as I am certain it will be divisive and a horrible experience for the Country. Unless the result is clear it will not resolve anything
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Anorak said:

    Fascinating story I'd completely missed. Not sure of the implications on Canadian politics.
    https://twitter.com/ezralevant/status/1100940359553699841 EDIT: I see Flashman beat me to it. This is a more concise read, though, if you're in a rush.

    That guy is a Tommy Robinson supporter.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544
    AndyJS said:

    notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    For some that might be quite legitimate. Profoundly disabled, a family in which one stays at home etc. Watching the skint programme in Hartlepool i’m confused that this factual programme about people struggling with the welfare state presents a very different picture to the fictional movie about someone called a Daniel Blake. What is clear is that some people, for whatever reason seem to lack the capacity to work, and not through specific disability such as mental or physical impairment, but through their experiences either through their upbringing or their interactions with the welfare system.
    I agree, there's nothing wrong with unpaid work. House husbands, for example.
    House husbands should just fuck right off and get a job. They get right on my tits, hanging around on political betting messageboards and cooking food for dinner. They should just go away and become the women they really are. What a load of precious namby-pamby wimps.

    Oh, hang on... ;)

    (Takes off his pinny and tries to go and do something more manly.)
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    edited February 2019
    “I am not Jeremy’s Deputy, I’m Deputy leader of the Labour Party” those be fighting words....
  • stodge said:

    Trivia

    My wife came across a menu card from a local restaurant and conference venue around 1972 and the prices stopped us in our tracks

    Afternoon tea 27p

    3 course meal 75p

    Difficult to realise that was the pricing 47 years ago

    I presume that wasn't the price for a cup of tea but for the full scones, sandwiches and the like.

    What were earnings in 1972 - my first job was in 1979 and my annual gross salary was £3,100.
    This is always fun to make the comparison - that three-course meal would still be under a tenner at today's prices...

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    @JosiasJessop Have you seen the latest elephant in the room twitter ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited February 2019
    AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    Non EU migration 261 thousand , EU migration 57 thousand .

    Any chance Leavers might admit they were sold a pup .

    There's no way house prices can become reasonable with migration as high as this.
    Well, they *could* - for example Britain could repeal the planning laws and stop preventing the problem from solving itself.
  • TGOHF said:

    notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    For some that might be quite legitimate. Profoundly disabled, a family in which one stays at home etc. Watching the skint programme in Hartlepool i’m confused that this factual programme about people struggling with the welfare state presents a very different picture to the fictional movie about someone called a Daniel Blake. What is clear is that some people, for whatever reason seem to lack the capacity to work, and not through specific disability such as mental or physical impairment, but through their experiences either through their upbringing or their interactions with the welfare system.
    I think that culture particularly in immigrant groups would be a big section of this.

    ""Women account for 94% of those who have never worked and are currently looking after the family or home, rising to 96% in cases where there is a dependent child in the family.""
    The back to the 1950s mob should love that.
    (the back to the 1850s & 1750s mobs may have to wait a wee while for capital punishment, tuberculosis and child labour to really take off)
  • notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    For some that might be quite legitimate. Profoundly disabled, a family in which one stays at home etc. Watching the skint programme in Hartlepool i’m confused that this factual programme about people struggling with the welfare state presents a very different picture to the fictional movie about someone called a Daniel Blake. What is clear is that some people, for whatever reason seem to lack the capacity to work, and not through specific disability such as mental or physical impairment, but through their experiences either through their upbringing or their interactions with the welfare system.
    I seemed to remember there was some stat a while back that showed how in certain places it was quite common to have 3 generations of families where nobody has worked. It is unsurprising if you don't know anybody in a job, that a) you don't have that peer pressure to get one and b) how to go about even if you do want to.

    If you think back, lots of "working class" families would all work at the same place, generation after generation all miners or factory workers etc. So even if Cousin Steve was a bit thick or had a gammy leg, somebody in the family probably knew somebody who knew somebody at the factory who could get him a job doing something there.
  • On the net migration numbers, don't forget they include British people leaving and returning. Brexit could have quite a big impact on that, especially on people considering retiring: You don't want to sell up and buy a place in Spain just to find you don't have the right to live there, and post-brexit the pounds you've saved up won't buy you the kind of lifestyle they used to.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Trivia

    My wife came across a menu card from a local restaurant and conference venue around 1972 and the prices stopped us in our tracks

    Afternoon tea 27p

    3 course meal 75p

    Difficult to realise that was the pricing 47 years ago

    A first class stamp was 3p. Second class 2 1/2p
  • stodge said:

    Trivia

    My wife came across a menu card from a local restaurant and conference venue around 1972 and the prices stopped us in our tracks

    Afternoon tea 27p

    3 course meal 75p

    Difficult to realise that was the pricing 47 years ago

    I presume that wasn't the price for a cup of tea but for the full scones, sandwiches and the like.

    What were earnings in 1972 - my first job was in 1979 and my annual gross salary was £3,100.
    It was a full afternoon tea and to be fair I cannot remember my salary at that time. I had just taken out a mortgage at £32.00 per month so I expect my earnings would have been around £1200
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    For some that might be quite legitimate. Profoundly disabled, a family in which one stays at home etc. Watching the skint programme in Hartlepool i’m confused that this factual programme about people struggling with the welfare state presents a very different picture to the fictional movie about someone called a Daniel Blake. What is clear is that some people, for whatever reason seem to lack the capacity to work, and not through specific disability such as mental or physical impairment, but through their experiences either through their upbringing or their interactions with the welfare system.
    When I tried going on benefit after losing my seat - not really to get the very limited benefit but to experience the system so I'd know what I was talking about - I was really struck by the way the system discourages everything except getting a full-time job doing exactly what you did before. A chef at the next desk who wanted to take a two-week training courese in specialist cooking to improve his chances was politely told to stop messing about and concentrate on getting a job with his current skills. When I got small translation jobs I had pages of documentation to fill out and an effective tax rate of 85%, making me feel I was a mug either for taking them or for reporting them (yes, Universal Credit would have helped in my case). And I really don't have a bad work ethic - I've worked 6-7 days a week on two jobs for decades.

    Running a small business under the VAT threshold, often considered to be burdensome, was a doddle by comparison - keep records, report your annual profit or loss, done. Yet we expect people out of work to have the organisation and focus of a professional manager. It's not surprising that some effectively give up.
    How do we improve it? UC has lots of problems, but some of the largest (moving to a four weekly payment and no direct payment of rent) are a symptom of moving away from a failing system that deskilled people in how to work and budget.
  • stodge said:

    Trivia

    My wife came across a menu card from a local restaurant and conference venue around 1972 and the prices stopped us in our tracks

    Afternoon tea 27p

    3 course meal 75p

    Difficult to realise that was the pricing 47 years ago

    I presume that wasn't the price for a cup of tea but for the full scones, sandwiches and the like.

    What were earnings in 1972 - my first job was in 1979 and my annual gross salary was £3,100.
    This is always fun to make the comparison - that three-course meal would still be under a tenner at today's prices...

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator
    Interesting as it was a good menu and a popular venue for conferences and weddings

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    For some that might be quite legitimate. Profoundly disabled, a family in which one stays at home etc. Watching the skint programme in Hartlepool i’m confused that this factual programme about people struggling with the welfare state presents a very different picture to the fictional movie about someone called a Daniel Blake. What is clear is that some people, for whatever reason seem to lack the capacity to work, and not through specific disability such as mental or physical impairment, but through their experiences either through their upbringing or their interactions with the welfare system.
    I think that culture particularly in immigrant groups would be a big section of this.

    ""Women account for 94% of those who have never worked and are currently looking after the family or home, rising to 96% in cases where there is a dependent child in the family.""
    It is fascinating to see changes in work and what happens when migration takes over low pay jobs, and what happens in those areas whiteout the migration. I live in an area of very low migration, but there has been noticeable Eastern European migration. The interesting bit is the female participation. Female taxi drivers, bus drivers and other areas that aren’t really skilled but traditionally male dominated. In other areas of the country these quickly became jobs done by male migrants, up here however it is women who do them.
    I was thinking more of Bradford - where there will a large section of the female population who have never worked.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Age is an interesting thing. After a period where youth and modernity seemed to be in fashion, we now seem to have moved to a notion where age=experience=competence.

    I wonder the extent to which there is any kind of evidence an older electorate is drawn to older candidates. Trump is in his 70s, so is Cable. Corbyn is 69 and May a spring chicken at 62. I've heard it said 70 is the new 50 which presumably means in the future you'll be in the middle of your working life as the retirement age will be 100.

    Did the older voters go for Blair and Cameron because they looked like ideal husbands for their daughters? Just a thought.

    There's a risk of concluding too much from small samples and cognitive bias excluding evidence that doesn't fit. France currently has a very young President, I think Berlusconi was quite old towards the end of his time in charge in Italy - I just don't see a systematic pattern.

    One thing I did notice is that Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Donald Trump were all born in 1946 - the start of the baby boomer generation. When Clinton was first elected he was 46, reasonably young, were Trump to stay in office until the end of two terms he would be 78, really quite old, but it's the same generation in control.
    What do Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, George Bush Snr, Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford and Harry Truman have in common? Answer - They are all left handers. Half of the US post war presidents have been left handers.

    Does anyone know whether any of the Democrat contenders are left handers?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544
    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    Is it any surprise? Some stats show that 1 in 7 adults are functionally illiterate (and about the same number innumerate). E.g.:
    https://literacytrust.org.uk/parents-and-families/adult-literacy/

    This also has other effects:
    "Half of Britain’s prisoners are functionally illiterate."
    https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/jun/15/reading-for-freedom-life-changing-scheme-dreamt-up-by-prison-pen-pals-shannon-trust-action-for-equity-award

    This is a massive problem: boys and girls being let down by parents, families, schools and the authorities (probably in that order), and therefore having massively reduced chances in the future. The number of jobs where someone who is functionally innumerate and/or illiterate can do must be reducing.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544
    Pulpstar said:

    @JosiasJessop Have you seen the latest elephant in the room twitter ?

    Nope. I'm, currently fighting some SQL. Has Musk made an idiot of himself again?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,468

    stodge said:

    Trivia

    My wife came across a menu card from a local restaurant and conference venue around 1972 and the prices stopped us in our tracks

    Afternoon tea 27p

    3 course meal 75p

    Difficult to realise that was the pricing 47 years ago

    I presume that wasn't the price for a cup of tea but for the full scones, sandwiches and the like.

    What were earnings in 1972 - my first job was in 1979 and my annual gross salary was £3,100.
    It was a full afternoon tea and to be fair I cannot remember my salary at that time. I had just taken out a mortgage at £32.00 per month so I expect my earnings would have been around £1200
    £2300 in 76.

    When I went to Uni in 73 I had to have an arrangement to be able to withdraw cash from a specific branch of Lloyds bank set up. It was limited to £15/week.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    *snip*

    That guy is a Tommy Robinson supporter.
    Is he? I don't screen my twitter sources (that one came via John Rentoul), unless they've got an obvious issue like a JC4PM or MAGA tag.
  • Personally the most shocking thing is that Stacey Dooley is 31. I thought she was about 14.
  • stodge said:

    Trivia

    My wife came across a menu card from a local restaurant and conference venue around 1972 and the prices stopped us in our tracks

    Afternoon tea 27p

    3 course meal 75p

    Difficult to realise that was the pricing 47 years ago

    I presume that wasn't the price for a cup of tea but for the full scones, sandwiches and the like.

    What were earnings in 1972 - my first job was in 1979 and my annual gross salary was £3,100.
    This is always fun to make the comparison - that three-course meal would still be under a tenner at today's prices...

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator
    Interesting as it was a good menu and a popular venue for conferences and weddings

    if you go on measuringworth.com the high tea comes out at about 6 quid so still a great price! and the three course meal at £17 - measuringworth is a good site as it calculates labour value, economic power etc not just a raw inflation number.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Pulpstar said:

    I know Brexit and the US stuff is interesting, but what's everyones hot take on Stacey Dooley vs David Lammy ?


    If african nations could manage to govern themselves than we wouldn’t need quite so many white saviours. Lammy is just a poundshop Al Sharpton. The efforts made by primarily white NGOs like the gates foundation has been truly inspirational. Work on vaccination, hiv and aids medication, aid stepping in while tribes slaughter each other.

    I don’t know who Stacey Dooley is (just googled her), but a thirty year old who has dedicated her career to drawing attention to child labour and improving the lives of women in poorer parts of the world, is probably asked or volunteered to help draw attention to a particular problem to help raise funds to make it better.

    And he attacks her for it, for being white.

    What have we become, seriously?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,468
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    *snip*

    That guy is a Tommy Robinson supporter.
    Is he? I don't screen my twitter sources (that one came via John Rentoul), unless they've got an obvious issue like a JC4PM or MAGA tag.
    I nearly posted a similar response. I have no idea of the allegations, but I noted a Michael White tweet commenting that he was from the Alt-Right so I looked up his Wikipedia page. Yep.
  • notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    snip
    When I tried going on benefit after losing my seat - not really to get the very limited benefit but to experience the system so I'd know what I was talking about - I was really struck by the way the system discourages everything except getting a full-time job doing exactly what you did before. A chef at the next desk who wanted to take a two-week training courese in specialist cooking to improve his chances was politely told to stop messing about and concentrate on getting a job with his current skills. When I got small translation jobs I had pages of documentation to fill out and an effective tax rate of 85%, making me feel I was a mug either for taking them or for reporting them (yes, Universal Credit would have helped in my case). And I really don't have a bad work ethic - I've worked 6-7 days a week on two jobs for decades.

    Running a small business under the VAT threshold, often considered to be burdensome, was a doddle by comparison - keep records, report your annual profit or loss, done. Yet we expect people out of work to have the organisation and focus of a professional manager. It's not surprising that some effectively give up.
    How do we improve it? UC has lots of problems, but some of the largest (moving to a four weekly payment and no direct payment of rent) are a symptom of moving away from a failing system that deskilled people in how to work and budget.
    I note Nick says he signed on mainly for the experience of the system than the benefit cash.

    Be advised, anyone who considers this. Always sign on even if you don't need the cash and think you will find a job within a few months. In case you fall ill.

    The benefits system pays your NI stamps.

    Hardly anyone knows this, but if you drop off NI during the two years prior to being ill, you lose entitlement to contributory ESA.

    You can catch up your pension entitlement for lost years of NI at a later date.

    You cannot catch up your NI for ESA. If you don't have an NI record for the two years prior to falling ill or disabled you will not get ESA.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    *snip*

    That guy is a Tommy Robinson supporter.
    Is he? I don't screen my twitter sources (that one came via John Rentoul), unless they've got an obvious issue like a JC4PM or MAGA tag.
    My link was from the WSJ - perhaps Tommy also reads the Guardian ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/27/canada-trudeau-snc-lavalin-jody-wilson-raybould


    "“Justin Trudeau can no longer hide the fact that he was at the center of an attempt to interfere in a criminal prosecution. He must come clean with Canadians,” Conservative leader Andrew Scheer said on Wednesday before the testimony.

    Scheer called on Trudeau to stand down and demanded a police inquiry.

    “He can no longer, with a clear conscience, continue to lead this nation,” he said.

    The scandal has already cost Trudeau his closest adviser: Gerald Butts resigned earlier this month, but denied he had or others had improperly pressured Wilson-Raybould."
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,468
    TGOHF said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    *snip*

    That guy is a Tommy Robinson supporter.
    Is he? I don't screen my twitter sources (that one came via John Rentoul), unless they've got an obvious issue like a JC4PM or MAGA tag.
    My link was from the WSJ - perhaps Tommy also reads the Guardian ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/27/canada-trudeau-snc-lavalin-jody-wilson-raybould


    "“Justin Trudeau can no longer hide the fact that he was at the center of an attempt to interfere in a criminal prosecution. He must come clean with Canadians,” Conservative leader Andrew Scheer said on Wednesday before the testimony.

    Scheer called on Trudeau to stand down and demanded a police inquiry.

    “He can no longer, with a clear conscience, continue to lead this nation,” he said.

    The scandal has already cost Trudeau his closest adviser: Gerald Butts resigned earlier this month, but denied he had or others had improperly pressured Wilson-Raybould."
    It was because of the more reliable source of your post that I didn't respond immediately to the other post that had a rather dubious source.
  • kjh said:

    stodge said:

    Trivia

    My wife came across a menu card from a local restaurant and conference venue around 1972 and the prices stopped us in our tracks

    Afternoon tea 27p

    3 course meal 75p

    Difficult to realise that was the pricing 47 years ago

    I presume that wasn't the price for a cup of tea but for the full scones, sandwiches and the like.

    What were earnings in 1972 - my first job was in 1979 and my annual gross salary was £3,100.
    It was a full afternoon tea and to be fair I cannot remember my salary at that time. I had just taken out a mortgage at £32.00 per month so I expect my earnings would have been around £1200
    £2300 in 76.

    When I went to Uni in 73 I had to have an arrangement to be able to withdraw cash from a specific branch of Lloyds bank set up. It was limited to £15/week.
    It does seem so much cheaper
  • kingbongo said:

    stodge said:

    Trivia

    My wife came across a menu card from a local restaurant and conference venue around 1972 and the prices stopped us in our tracks

    Afternoon tea 27p

    3 course meal 75p

    Difficult to realise that was the pricing 47 years ago

    I presume that wasn't the price for a cup of tea but for the full scones, sandwiches and the like.

    What were earnings in 1972 - my first job was in 1979 and my annual gross salary was £3,100.
    This is always fun to make the comparison - that three-course meal would still be under a tenner at today's prices...

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator
    Interesting as it was a good menu and a popular venue for conferences and weddings

    if you go on measuringworth.com the high tea comes out at about 6 quid so still a great price! and the three course meal at £17 - measuringworth is a good site as it calculates labour value, economic power etc not just a raw inflation number.
    That seems about right. Thanks for that
  • Another grooming gang sent down. Happened yesterday, but never heard about it:
    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1100795332424802305
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    TGOHF said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    *snip*

    That guy is a Tommy Robinson supporter.
    Is he? I don't screen my twitter sources (that one came via John Rentoul), unless they've got an obvious issue like a JC4PM or MAGA tag.
    My link was from the WSJ - perhaps Tommy also reads the Guardian ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/27/canada-trudeau-snc-lavalin-jody-wilson-raybould


    "“Justin Trudeau can no longer hide the fact that he was at the center of an attempt to interfere in a criminal prosecution. He must come clean with Canadians,” Conservative leader Andrew Scheer said on Wednesday before the testimony.

    Scheer called on Trudeau to stand down and demanded a police inquiry.

    “He can no longer, with a clear conscience, continue to lead this nation,” he said.

    The scandal has already cost Trudeau his closest adviser: Gerald Butts resigned earlier this month, but denied he had or others had improperly pressured Wilson-Raybould."

    Apparently ‘Tommy’ isn’t his real name....
  • notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    snip
    When I tried going on benefit after losing my seat - not really to get the very limited benefit but to experience the system so I'd know what I was talking about - I was really struck by the way the system discourages everything except getting a full-time job doing exactly what you did before. A chef at the next desk who wanted to take a two-week training courese in specialist cooking to improve his chances was politely told to stop messing about and concentrate on getting a job with his current skills. When I got small translation jobs I had pages of documentation to fill out and an effective tax rate of 85%, making me feel I was a mug either for taking them or for reporting them (yes, Universal Credit would have helped in my case). And I really don't have a bad work ethic - I've worked 6-7 days a week on two jobs for decades.

    Running a small business under the VAT threshold, often considered to be burdensome, was a doddle by comparison - keep records, report your annual profit or loss, done. Yet we expect people out of work to have the organisation and focus of a professional manager. It's not surprising that some effectively give up.
    How do we improve it? UC has lots of problems, but some of the largest (moving to a four weekly payment and no direct payment of rent) are a symptom of moving away from a failing system that deskilled people in how to work and budget.
    I note Nick says he signed on mainly for the experience of the system than the benefit cash.

    Be advised, anyone who considers this. Always sign on even if you don't need the cash and think you will find a job within a few months. In case you fall ill.

    The benefits system pays your NI stamps.

    Hardly anyone knows this, but if you drop off NI during the two years prior to being ill, you lose entitlement to contributory ESA.

    You can catch up your pension entitlement for lost years of NI at a later date.

    You cannot catch up your NI for ESA. If you don't have an NI record for the two years prior to falling ill or disabled you will not get ESA.
    You also have your NI record maintained if you are claiming Child Benefit.
  • notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    For some that might be quite legitimate. Profoundly disabled, a family in which one stays at home etc. Watching the skint programme in Hartlepool i’m confused that this factual programme about people struggling with the welfare state presents a very different picture to the fictional movie about someone called a Daniel Blake. What is clear is that some people, for whatever reason seem to lack the capacity to work, and not through specific disability such as mental or physical impairment, but through their experiences either through their upbringing or their interactions with the welfare system.
    The original ONS research can be located quite easily. 60% of the 3.6mn people are students. 14% (of whom 94% are women) have caring responsibilities (and would probably take issue with the idea they are not working), 12% are sick or disabled, just 7% are unemployed, of whom most have been out of work for less than a year so are presumably new labour market entrants. About 5% are unaccounted for, but include young people who are not yet looking for a job.
    So while the headline figure evokes familiar Benefits Street stereotypes (or 'sleeping off a life on benefits' as trust fund millionaire George Osborne put it) the truth is rather more mundane. As is almost invariably the case when economic data are reported in the media, I should add.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Another grooming gang sent down. Happened yesterday, but never heard about it:
    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1100795332424802305

    They aren't getting laid any other way....
  • notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    snip
    When I tried going on benefit after losing my seat - not really to get the very limited benefit but to experience the system so I'd know what I was talking about - I was really struck by the way the system discourages everything except getting a full-time job doing exactly what you did before. A chef at the next desk who wanted to take a two-week training courese in specialist cooking to improve his chances was politely told to stop messing about and concentrate on getting a job with his current skills. When I got small translation jobs I had pages of documentation to fill out and an effective tax rate of 85%, making me feel I was a mug either for taking them or for reporting them (yes, Universal Credit would have helped in my case). And I really don't have a bad work ethic - I've worked 6-7 days a week on two jobs for decades.

    Running a small business under the VAT threshold, often considered to be burdensome, was a doddle by comparison - keep records, report your annual profit or loss, done. Yet we expect people out of work to have the organisation and focus of a professional manager. It's not surprising that some effectively give up.
    How do we improve it? UC has lots of problems, but some of the largest (moving to a four weekly payment and no direct payment of rent) are a symptom of moving away from a failing system that deskilled people in how to work and budget.
    I note Nick says he signed on mainly for the experience of the system than the benefit cash.

    Be advised, anyone who considers this. Always sign on even if you don't need the cash and think you will find a job within a few months. In case you fall ill.

    The benefits system pays your NI stamps.

    Hardly anyone knows this, but if you drop off NI during the two years prior to being ill, you lose entitlement to contributory ESA.

    You can catch up your pension entitlement for lost years of NI at a later date.

    You cannot catch up your NI for ESA. If you don't have an NI record for the two years prior to falling ill or disabled you will not get ESA.
    You also have your NI record maintained if you are claiming Child Benefit.
    Thanks. I didn't know that one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    TGOHF said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    *snip*

    That guy is a Tommy Robinson supporter.
    Is he? I don't screen my twitter sources (that one came via John Rentoul), unless they've got an obvious issue like a JC4PM or MAGA tag.
    My link was from the WSJ - perhaps Tommy also reads the Guardian ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/27/canada-trudeau-snc-lavalin-jody-wilson-raybould


    "“Justin Trudeau can no longer hide the fact that he was at the center of an attempt to interfere in a criminal prosecution. He must come clean with Canadians,” Conservative leader Andrew Scheer said on Wednesday before the testimony.

    Scheer called on Trudeau to stand down and demanded a police inquiry.

    “He can no longer, with a clear conscience, continue to lead this nation,” he said.

    The scandal has already cost Trudeau his closest adviser: Gerald Butts resigned earlier this month, but denied he had or others had improperly pressured Wilson-Raybould."
    So although the alt-right might be giggling themseves silly over it, does seem there is a very real story behind this. And that Trudeau is in a heap of trouble.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    stodge said:

    Trivia

    My wife came across a menu card from a local restaurant and conference venue around 1972 and the prices stopped us in our tracks

    Afternoon tea 27p

    3 course meal 75p

    Difficult to realise that was the pricing 47 years ago

    I presume that wasn't the price for a cup of tea but for the full scones, sandwiches and the like.

    What were earnings in 1972 - my first job was in 1979 and my annual gross salary was £3,100.
    I remember food in the early 80s, it was from compared to the variety we have today, I’m imagining the early 70s even more so. I’m sure the hot scone with jam and butter would have been fine... but the rest....?
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    notme2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "One in ten UK adults have never done paid work - official figures

    The ONS says that despite record employment in the country, 3.6 million people have never held a paid job."

    https://news.sky.com/story/one-in-ten-uk-adults-have-never-done-paid-work-official-figures-11650633

    For some that might be quite legitimate. Profoundly disabled, a family in which one stays at home etc. Watching the skint programme in Hartlepool i’m confused that this factual programme about people struggling with the welfare state presents a very different picture to the fictional movie about someone called a Daniel Blake. What is clear is that some people, for whatever reason seem to lack the capacity to work, and not through specific disability such as mental or physical impairment, but through their experiences either through their upbringing or their interactions with the welfare system.
    The original ONS research can be located quite easily. 60% of the 3.6mn people are students. 14% (of whom 94% are women) have caring responsibilities (and would probably take issue with the idea they are not working), 12% are sick or disabled, just 7% are unemployed, of whom most have been out of work for less than a year so are presumably new labour market entrants. About 5% are unaccounted for, but include young people who are not yet looking for a job.
    So while the headline figure evokes familiar Benefits Street stereotypes (or 'sleeping off a life on benefits' as trust fund millionaire George Osborne put it) the truth is rather more mundane. As is almost invariably the case when economic data are reported in the media, I should add.
    True. Perpetual unemployment is not really an option anymore. Skint etc really is no longer a reflection of how other than a hard core of people live, we’ve seen reform after reform from 2007 onwards that has squeezed down on a system that rewarded idleness. Hence, despite sluggish economic growth, substantial rolling back of public sector pay roll, we have seen a jobs miracle.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Pulpstar said:
    Head of the Civil Service.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited February 2019

    What a surprise:

    twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1101071670750654464

    Antisemite enabler...
  • ***** BETTING POST *****

    Off Topic

    Mrs. May has already confirmed that she will resign as Prime Minister prior to the next General Election.

    There has to be a good chance that she will depart just as soon as (always assuming) she succeeds in steering Britain to a successful Brexit conclusion prior to 29th March, which is actually now looking a tad more likely than has previously been the case.

    So who is likely to succeed her? There are, of course all the usual suspects including Boris, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Amber Rudd, etc all of whom are available at odds of between 6/1 - 20/1, but none of whom I particulary fancy to emerge as the winner.

    So who you might ask is currently my pick? Drum Roll!! None other than the person whom as I type these words, is working day and night, using his unique combination of charm, intellect and somewhat bombastic negotiating skills to persuade the EU powers that be to accept a compromise agreement on the all-important Irish backstop problem, which is currently preventing such a deal. I give you, Ladies & Gentlemen, none other than Geoffrey Cox Q.C. M.P. Should he come home with a form of words which prove acceptable to the HoC in the next crucial vote on 12 March, he will be revered as something of a hero, not only among Tory MPs (and probably a good few Labour MPs to boot), but crucially to the Party's membership as a whole ... more than enough, in my opinion, to land him the top job, probably accompanied by a ringing endorsement from La May.


    Quite apart from his attractive political personality, he also has an excellent profile for the job - just short of 60, a West Country MP for 14 years with a decent majority and of course with a legal background, possessing an excellent brain.

    The best odds on him becoming the next PM are from the Betfair Exchange where I asked for and obtained odds of 65, equivalent to 60.8/1 net of their 5% commission ... cracking good value imho. Those of a nervous opinion might prefer to back Cox to become the next Conservative Leader to allow, therefore, for circumstances in which May was forced to call a GE, whilst still leader, which she then goes on to lose. Here, Betfair's odds are a slightly more modest 47 (43.7/1 net of comm'n).

    As ever, DYOR.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Pulpstar said:
    Mark Sedwill is the acting Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Civil Service.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Somehow I get the feeling "No Deal" adverts will be rather like this in tone? ;)


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SqRNUUOk7s
  • Scott_P said:
    Jackie Walker spent most of yesterday evening vigorously defending now suspended Labour MP Chris Williamson from the half-hearted actions of the Labour Party, just days after she shared yet another arguably anti-Semitic image on her Facebook profile. The big hook nosed image is a standard trope..

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/28/jackie-walker-shares-anti-semitic-imagery-defending-chris-williamson/
  • ***** BETTING POST *****

    Off Topic

    Mrs. May has already confirmed that she will resign as Prime Minister prior to the next General Election.

    There has to be a good chance that she will depart just as soon as (always assuming) she succeeds in steering Britain to a successful Brexit conclusion prior to 29th March, which is actually now looking a tad more likely than has previously been the case.

    So who is likely to succeed her? There are, of course all the usual suspects including Boris, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Amber Rudd, etc all of whom are available at odds of between 6/1 - 20/1, but none of whom I particulary fancy to emerge as the winner.

    So who you might ask is currently my pick? Drum Roll!! None other than the person whom as I type these words, is working day and night, using his unique combination of charm, intellect and somewhat bombastic negotiating skills to persuade the EU powers that be to accept a compromise agreement on the all-important Irish backstop problem, which is currently preventing such a deal. I give you, Ladies & Gentlemen, none other than Geoffrey Cox Q.C. M.P. Should he come home with a form of words which prove acceptable to the HoC in the next crucial vote on 12 March, he will be revered as something of a hero, not only among Tory MPs (and probably a good few Labour MPs to boot), but crucially to the Party's membership as a whole ... more than enough, in my opinion, to land him the top job, probably accompanied by a ringing endorsement from La May.


    Quite apart from his attractive political personality, he also has an excellent profile for the job - just short of 60, a West Country MP for 14 years with a decent majority and of course with a legal background, possessing an excellent brain.

    The best odds on him becoming the next PM are from the Betfair Exchange where I asked for and obtained odds of 65, equivalent to 60.8/1 net of their 5% commission ... cracking good value imho. Those of a nervous opinion might prefer to back Cox to become the next Conservative Leader to allow, therefore, for circumstances in which May was forced to call a GE, whilst still leader, which she then goes on to lose. Here, Betfair's odds are a slightly more modest 47 (43.7/1 net of comm'n).

    As ever, DYOR.

    I agree. Certainly worth covering yourself if you are sprinkling a few bets around various potential runners.

    I am on at 140/1 from a while ago.

    Not entirely convinced he is the right person to take on Jezza and his campaigning though.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited February 2019

    Another grooming gang sent down. Happened yesterday, but never heard about it:
    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1100795332424802305

    Its just 'local West Yorkshire' news - so not really of national interest.

    There are far more important things going on - the lead story in today's Standard is "Please stop 'influencing' on our doorsteps, Notting Hill residents tell 'unapologetic' Instagrammers". It even outranks the Dooley Lammy twitter spat.

    Richpeople in Notting Hill are important - poor girls in Bradford really aren't worthy of attention!

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/please-stop-influencing-on-our-doorsteps-notting-hill-residents-tell-unapologetic-social-media-a4078806.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    How are the preparations for Brexit going? Food supplies? Medicine? Transport links? Security cooperation?

    Relax...

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1101078711292567553
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    GIN1138 said:

    Somehow I get the feeling "No Deal" adverts will be rather like this in tone? ;)
    Don't die of ignorance.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    GIN1138 said:

    Somehow I get the feeling "No Deal" adverts will be rather like this in tone? ;)


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SqRNUUOk7s
    That's too tame. It will be more like this:-

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrHoMSRZOS4
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Andrew said:
    So it's actually pretty "do'able to achieve a majority for her deal in the next couple of weeks (especially if she can get a tweek on the backstop|)
  • GIN1138 said:

    Somehow I get the feeling "No Deal" adverts will be rather like this in tone? ;)


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SqRNUUOk7s
    If UKIP were in charge, they would be along the lines of..."Always use protection when talking to Johnny foreigner"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Somehow I get the feeling "No Deal" adverts will be rather like this in tone? ;)
    That's too tame. It will be more like this:-
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T72TopWbXJg
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    AndyJS said:

    nico67 said:

    Non EU migration 261 thousand , EU migration 57 thousand .

    Any chance Leavers might admit they were sold a pup .

    There's no way house prices can become reasonable with migration as high as this.
    Well, they *could* - for example Britain could repeal the planning laws and stop preventing the problem from solving itself.
    I didn't recall many headlines about it at the time, but houses fell by 55% between Q3 '07 and Q4 '12 in Northern Ireland.
This discussion has been closed.