politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ladbrokes 3/1 on a deal being agreed looks like a value be

IanB2 said:

Barnesian said:

IanB2 said:

david_herdson said:

Foxy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Having thought about how today's events affect the probabilities of various outcomes, such as leaving on time with a deal, leaving without a deal, or extending A50 for a referendum, I am now prepared to share my considered conclusion with you all: I haven't the faintest idea.

This is a board of intelligent and well informed folk across the political spectrum often with niche insights. I think it fair to say that nobody is sure what happens next or what the outcome will be.

4 weeks to go and we are all in the fog. I am not convinced that either MPs or Civil Service are any better informed.

It almost certainly isn't 4 weeks to go. That's the only thing we can be reasonably sure about.

Either for reasons of can-kicking (forced by either the govt or by parliament), or because the government needs time to implement the deal, it's highly likely that there'll be an A50 extension.

It is possible that the EU might veto an extension or attach unacceptable conditions but I think the risk is relatively low, providing that the date doesn't go beyond June 30.

No Deal shouldn't be ruled out - it's easy enough to cause it by accident, never mind design - but I think it's become quite unlikely this last 7 days.

No no deal having got down to 1.03 earlier, it's now back to 1.17 with a fair few thousand put on the table waiting to be matched - some of which arrived in £'000s as I was logged in when it was lodged. Someone with deep pockets seems to think no deal on 29/3 is still in play.

Or someone hedging against large potential losses in the real world if there is no deal. An insurance bet rather than an estimate of the probability.

That is a possibility, I guess. Except that the Betfair bet is incredibly misleading, titled "no deal Brexit, yes or no" but with the small print tying it specifically to 29/3 only. It's the worse presentation I have seen. The specific date reduces its insurance worth IMO.

Agreed.

rottenborough said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I see the wingnut in chief from Derby is unpopular with his Nottingham colleague... what could be done to stop such in-fighting?

https://twitter.com/LilianGreenwood/status/1100420369687683075

She needs to hand a file on this over to Tom Watson. He is handling these matters now.

The last time Tom Watson investigated something, it was a fecking disaster, lets not put any halo's round Watson's neck ….

eek said:

Sean_F said:

FPT the study of the impact of the Euro on individual countries. IMO, it suggests that GDP per head would be about 11% higher in Italy, and 6% higher in France, had they remained outside the Euro.

Given zero growth in Italy for 20 years caused by it's inability to compete on level pricing with Germany that's not surprising. The lira used inflation to inflate debts away which is impossible in a German controlled low inflation economy...

The Italian model worked because it screwed savers. (And the savers were therefore very keen to join the Euro to stop the government screwing them.) What they forgot is that by stopping screwing savers, the result was an end to cheap capital.

All that being said, it is worth remembering that Italy was always going to face a pretty horrible slowdown, given it has the worst demographics in developed Europe. Indeed, Italy's demographics and economy look remarkably like Japan's - with the difference being that Japan's government has been able to print money* to keep things going.

The 11%, all things considered, sounds about right for the "Euro drag" for Italy. The question is, can Italy leave the Euro in a way that doesn't (a) fracture the country by screwing Italian savers and retirees (of which there are many), and (b) allows it to continue to service its obligations?

It's a tough one. And made more tough by the fact that the Italians have refused to follow the Spanish and the Portuguese in liberalising their labour markets.

algarkirk said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

So

1) Will the MV pass? Unlikely; therefore
2) Will Lab vote for no no deal? Difficult, because
3) That will be seen as a vote for the government; so
4) If no no deal fails then will A50 extension pass? No, for the same reason as 3), therefore;
5) We are back where we started and the ERG wait for us to leave with no deal, so
6) We are fucked. Unless
7) Cooper whips Lab votes for her amendment which is unlikely, so therefore the only option is
8) The MV passes.

Voila!

Or, in other words, nothing has changed!

Indeed. Although ERG members would have to be crazy not to be quietly confident that they might get their no deal brexit.

I still think the chances of a no deal Brexit are close to zero.

Agree also. But the ERG might think they are in with a shout.

TheJezziah said:

Off Topic but I hope @bigjohnowls just meant he was putting the vile NSDAP troll types on ignore rather than leaving the site.

NSDAP trolls?

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

FPT the study of the impact of the Euro on individual countries. IMO, it suggests that GDP per head would be about 11% higher in Italy, and 6% higher in France, had they remained outside the Euro.

Interesting: who produced the analysis?

Centre for European Policy

https://www.cep.eu/en/eu-topics/details/cep/20-years-of-the-euro-winners-and-losers.html

Only Germany and the Netherlands have become more prosperous as a result of the introduction of the Euro according to this report.

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

FPT the study of the impact of the Euro on individual countries. IMO, it suggests that GDP per head would be about 11% higher in Italy, and 6% higher in France, had they remained outside the Euro.

Interesting: who produced the analysis?

Centre for European Policy

https://www.cep.eu/en/eu-topics/details/cep/20-years-of-the-euro-winners-and-losers.html

Hmmmmm: not convinced that:

1. Greece has been a Euro benificiary
2. Spain has been a Euro loser

If you look at employment compared to 1/1/99, Spain now has 40% more people employed than then, while Greece has something like 10% less.

I would argue that Spain's economy has probably grown quicker than it would have done out of the Euro, but only because it had incredibly painful reform forced on them. And that Greece has performed markedly worse, because it allowed completely unsustainable debts to be run up.

IanB2 said:

Barnesian said:

IanB2 said:

david_herdson said:

Foxy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Having thought about how today's events affect the probabilities of various outcomes, such as leaving on time with a deal, leaving without a deal, or extending A50 for a referendum, I am now prepared to share my considered conclusion with you all: I haven't the faintest idea.

This is a board of intelligent and well informed folk across the political spectrum often with niche insights. I think it fair to say that nobody is sure what happens next or what the outcome will be.

4 weeks to go and we are all in the fog. I am not convinced that either MPs or Civil Service are any better informed.

It almost certainly isn't 4 weeks to go. That's the only thing we can be reasonably sure about.

Either for reasons of can-kicking (forced by either the govt or by parliament), or because the government needs time to implement the deal, it's highly likely that there'll be an A50 extension.

It is possible that the EU might veto an extension or attach unacceptable conditions but I think the risk is relatively low, providing that the date doesn't go beyond June 30.

No Deal shouldn't be ruled out - it's easy enough to cause it by accident, never mind design - but I think it's become quite unlikely this last 7 days.

No no deal having got down to 1.03 earlier, it's now back to 1.17 with a fair few thousand put on the table waiting to be matched - some of which arrived in £'000s as I was logged in when it was lodged. Someone with deep pockets seems to think no deal on 29/3 is still in play.

Or someone hedging against large potential losses in the real world if there is no deal. An insurance bet rather than an estimate of the probability.

That is a possibility, I guess. Except that the Betfair bet is incredibly misleading, titled "no deal Brexit, yes or no" but with the small print tying it specifically to 29/3 only. It's the worse presentation I have seen. The specific date reduces its insurance worth IMO.

There's £1700 left at 1.11 if anyone fancies it. I thought it was attractive at 1.07.

I'm still not sure the evidence is there to justify such a big shift in the odds. What has really changed, apart from Donald Tusk's statement about an extension making sense?

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1100443907324854272?s=21

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

FPT the study of the impact of the Euro on individual countries. IMO, it suggests that GDP per head would be about 11% higher in Italy, and 6% higher in France, had they remained outside the Euro.

Interesting: who produced the analysis?

Centre for European Policy

https://www.cep.eu/en/eu-topics/details/cep/20-years-of-the-euro-winners-and-losers.html

Hmmmmm: not convinced that:

1. Greece has been a Euro benificiary
2. Spain has been a Euro loser

If you look at employment compared to 1/1/99, Spain now has 40% more people employed than then, while Greece has something like 10% less.

I would argue that Spain's economy has probably grown quicker than it would have done out of the Euro, but only because it had incredibly painful reform forced on them. And that Greece has performed markedly worse, because it allowed completely unsustainable debts to be run up.

I think I'd agree, although I think they're also spot on about Italy,

Italy's GDP has grown at 0.5% p.a., since 1999, which has just about kept pace with population growth.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RobD said:

TheJezziah said:

Off Topic but I hope @bigjohnowls just meant he was putting the vile NSDAP troll types on ignore rather than leaving the site.

NSDAP trolls?

Maybe naive but who are NSDAP

I think it's Jezziah's name for the Tory party. Could be mistaken.

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

FPT the study of the impact of the Euro on individual countries. IMO, it suggests that GDP per head would be about 11% higher in Italy, and 6% higher in France, had they remained outside the Euro.

Interesting: who produced the analysis?

Centre for European Policy

https://www.cep.eu/en/eu-topics/details/cep/20-years-of-the-euro-winners-and-losers.html

Hmmmmm: not convinced that:

1. Greece has been a Euro benificiary
2. Spain has been a Euro loser

If you look at employment compared to 1/1/99, Spain now has 40% more people employed than then, while Greece has something like 10% less.

I would argue that Spain's economy has probably grown quicker than it would have done out of the Euro, but only because it had incredibly painful reform forced on them. And that Greece has performed markedly worse, because it allowed completely unsustainable debts to be run up.

I think I'd agree, although I think they're also spot on about Italy,

Italy's GDP has grown at 0.5% p.a., since 1999, which has just about kept pace with population growth.

I agree with their Italian analysis too. Italy should never have joined the Euro, and then should have left in 2010/11.

The problem they have is that every day they stay, makes getting out more painful.

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

FPT the study of the impact of the Euro on individual countries. IMO, it suggests that GDP per head would be about 11% higher in Italy, and 6% higher in France, had they remained outside the Euro.

Interesting: who produced the analysis?

Centre for European Policy

https://www.cep.eu/en/eu-topics/details/cep/20-years-of-the-euro-winners-and-losers.html

Hmmmmm: not convinced that:

1. Greece has been a Euro benificiary
2. Spain has been a Euro loser

If you look at employment compared to 1/1/99, Spain now has 40% more people employed than then, while Greece has something like 10% less.

I would argue that Spain's economy has probably grown quicker than it would have done out of the Euro, but only because it had incredibly painful reform forced on them. And that Greece has performed markedly worse, because it allowed completely unsustainable debts to be run up.

I think I'd agree, although I think they're also spot on about Italy,

Italy's GDP has grown at 0.5% p.a., since 1999, which has just about kept pace with population growth.

I agree with their Italian analysis too. Italy should never have joined the Euro, and then should have left in 2010/11.

The problem they have is that every day they stay, makes getting out more painful.

You agree that without the Euro, the Italian economy would track the UK and Australia?

TM remarkable achievement (so far) is she has kept her cabinet together against all the odds

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

FPT the study of the impact of the Euro on individual countries. IMO, it suggests that GDP per head would be about 11% higher in Italy, and 6% higher in France, had they remained outside the Euro.

Interesting: who produced the analysis?

Centre for European Policy

https://www.cep.eu/en/eu-topics/details/cep/20-years-of-the-euro-winners-and-losers.html

Hmmmmm: not convinced that:

1. Greece has been a Euro benificiary
2. Spain has been a Euro loser

If you look at employment compared to 1/1/99, Spain now has 40% more people employed than then, while Greece has something like 10% less.

I would argue that Spain's economy has probably grown quicker than it would have done out of the Euro, but only because it had incredibly painful reform forced on them. And that Greece has performed markedly worse, because it allowed completely unsustainable debts to be run up.

I think I'd agree, although I think they're also spot on about Italy,

Italy's GDP has grown at 0.5% p.a., since 1999, which has just about kept pace with population growth.

I agree with their Italian analysis too. Italy should never have joined the Euro, and then should have left in 2010/11.

The problem they have is that every day they stay, makes getting out more painful.

You agree that without the Euro, the Italian economy would track the UK and Australia?

No, as I said below, the Italian economy was going to slow down anyway.

Given the demographics, Italy was always going to struggle to get above 0.75-1.25% per year. But they got 0.5% per year, rather than 1.0% per year.

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

FPT the study of the impact of the Euro on individual countries. IMO, it suggests that GDP per head would be about 11% higher in Italy, and 6% higher in France, had they remained outside the Euro.

Interesting: who produced the analysis?

Centre for European Policy

https://www.cep.eu/en/eu-topics/details/cep/20-years-of-the-euro-winners-and-losers.html

Hmmmmm: not convinced that:

1. Greece has been a Euro benificiary
2. Spain has been a Euro loser

If you look at employment compared to 1/1/99, Spain now has 40% more people employed than then, while Greece has something like 10% less.

I would argue that Spain's economy has probably grown quicker than it would have done out of the Euro, but only because it had incredibly painful reform forced on them. And that Greece has performed markedly worse, because it allowed completely unsustainable debts to be run up.

I think I'd agree, although I think they're also spot on about Italy,

Italy's GDP has grown at 0.5% p.a., since 1999, which has just about kept pace with population growth.

I agree with their Italian analysis too. Italy should never have joined the Euro, and then should have left in 2010/11.

The problem they have is that every day they stay, makes getting out more painful.

You agree that without the Euro, the Italian economy would track the UK and Australia?

No, as I said below, the Italian economy was going to slow down anyway.

Given the demographics, Italy was always going to struggle to get above 0.75-1.25% per year. But they got 0.5% per year, rather than 1.0% per year.

That’s what their analysis was based on.

Oh dear Govenment releases latest no deal impact assessments . These were the ones wanted by the Anna Soubry amendment .

Some small progress in certain areas but overall it looks like a horror show .

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. NorthWales, the National Socialist German Workers Party (aka Nazis).

Well that is unacceptable to be honest

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TM remarkable achievement (so far) is she has kept her cabinet together against all the odds

Except all the Cabinet minister who have resigned over the past months?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. NorthWales, the National Socialist German Workers Party (aka Nazis).

Well that is unacceptable to be honest

I know, right. The party doesn't even exist anymore.

williamglenn said:

That’s what their analysis was based on.

OK, that's an incrediby bizarre weighting. I'm trying to think of an economy less like Italy's than Australia. And failing.

Australia exports raw materials. To - errr - China. See: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/aus/all/show/2017/

Italy exports manufactured products. See: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/ita/all/show/2017/

If you were to say - of all the developed economies in the world, which one looks least like Italy's?, I think Australia would be top of the list.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

rottenborough said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I see the wingnut in chief from Derby is unpopular with his Nottingham colleague... what could be done to stop such in-fighting?

https://twitter.com/LilianGreenwood/status/1100420369687683075

She needs to hand a file on this over to Tom Watson. He is handling these matters now.

The pinned tweet on the wingnut's twitter feed is on........ Venezuela.

That's what is crucial to Derby voters tonight.


https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1099382439418441728

If ever I think the Tories have a number of odious tw*ts I just need to remind myself of this thug. He is not only a disgrace to Labour, he is a disgrace to the country who's parliament he sits in. Nothing short of a nasty little fascist.

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

That’s what their analysis was based on.

OK, that's an incrediby bizarre weighting. I'm trying to think of an economy less like Italy's than Australia. And failing.

Australia exports raw materials. To - errr - China. See: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/aus/all/show/2017/

Italy exports manufactured products. See: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/ita/all/show/2017/

If you were to say - of all the developed economies in the world, which one looks least like Italy's?, I think Australia would be top of the list.

Are you embarrassed to have just said you agreed with their analysis on Italy?

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TM remarkable achievement (so far) is she has kept her cabinet together against all the odds

Except all the Cabinet minister who have resigned over the past months?

Most of them were useless

She picked them, though!

And they let her down

rpjs said:

algarkirk said:

Chris said:

TOPPING said:

So

1) Will the MV pass? Unlikely; therefore
2) Will Lab vote for no no deal? Difficult, because
3) That will be seen as a vote for the government; so
4) If no no deal fails then will A50 extension pass? No, for the same reason as 3), therefore;
5) We are back where we started and the ERG wait for us to leave with no deal, so
6) We are fucked. Unless
7) Cooper whips Lab votes for her amendment which is unlikely, so therefore the only option is
8) The MV passes.

Voila!

As far as I know, Theresa May can ask for an extension without being mandated to do so by MPs.

I think that needs thought. Legislation already passed has us leaving on 29th March.

Not until the relevant sections are commenced by the executive, which has yet to happen, although I agree that under international law the UK will cease to be subject to the EU treaties from that date if nothing else happens.

Plus if parliament is needed to trigger Art 50 (Supreme Court) how do we know it isn't needed for an amendment of the decision?

AIUI the argument there is that SCOTUK ruled that parliamentary approval was needed to take British citizens’ EU rights away by invoking A50, but as no rights would be extinguished by revoking the A50 notification then the government would simply be exercising the executive power of the state to conduct international relations delegated to it by the sovereign.






Two good points. Thanks.

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TM remarkable achievement (so far) is she has kept her cabinet together against all the odds

Except all the Cabinet minister who have resigned over the past months?

Most of them were useless

She picked them, though!

And they let her down

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice.......

She does seem to have made an above average number of dodgy picks.

She has but not in Corbyn's league

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TM remarkable achievement (so far) is she has kept her cabinet together against all the odds

Except all the Cabinet minister who have resigned over the past months?

Most of them were useless

She picked them, though!

And they let her down

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice.......

She does seem to have made an above average number of dodgy picks.

You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

Mr. 67, it'd be interesting to see what a competent government would've made of preparations to depart.

AndyJS said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

FPT the study of the impact of the Euro on individual countries. IMO, it suggests that GDP per head would be about 11% higher in Italy, and 6% higher in France, had they remained outside the Euro.

Interesting: who produced the analysis?

Centre for European Policy

https://www.cep.eu/en/eu-topics/details/cep/20-years-of-the-euro-winners-and-losers.html

Only Germany and the Netherlands have become more prosperous as a result of the introduction of the Euro according to this report.

It was, is, and always will be a terrible idea until fiscal union is implemented.

nico67 said:

Apparently 83% of businesses who export to the EU still don’t have a Customs registration number . That’s 200,000 businesses !

I'm a bit suspicious of that number. HMRC keep writing to me as MD of my company urging us to get a registration number because they think we export to the EU. But we don't: in fact, we don't sell goods at all, we only sell services and licences B2B (and at the moment all of our customers are in the US anyway). I don't know what they are basing that figure on.

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

That’s what their analysis was based on.

OK, that's an incrediby bizarre weighting. I'm trying to think of an economy less like Italy's than Australia. And failing.

Australia exports raw materials. To - errr - China. See: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/aus/all/show/2017/

Italy exports manufactured products. See: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/ita/all/show/2017/

If you were to say - of all the developed economies in the world, which one looks least like Italy's?, I think Australia would be top of the list.

Personally, I would have put Japan as by far the best compare for Italy: similar demographics, similar exports-to-GDP, similar (in 1999) levels of government debt, similar savings rates, similar levels of home ownership, broadly similar type of of exports.

Italy does have agricultural and luxury goods exports, and corruption, but the two are pretty good analogs.

Australia. Not so much.

Japan was the comparator for Germany though.

If you compare Germany and Australia by the same means then I suspect that the Euro would look bad for German growth, or just maybe the biggest mineral producer in decades of commodity boom is not the best benchmark.

The benchmark for Greece was 40% Barbados and 40% New Zealand. Interesting choices, perhaps being good tourist destinations is the only common factor!

Am I the only one getting tired of people on social media who voted Leave now saying they voted for no deal.

And the ones who proclaim WTO is marvelous when they clearly haven’t a frigging clue how it works .

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TM remarkable achievement (so far) is she has kept her cabinet together against all the odds

Except all the Cabinet minister who have resigned over the past months?

Most of them were useless

She picked them, though!

And they let her down

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice.......

She does seem to have made an above average number of dodgy picks.

She has but not in Corbyn's league

That's not the point; St Jeremy's LotO, not PM. There are those here who will tell you that once he's PM he'll do a great deal better at picking Ministers.

I'm not one of them, though!

I’m beginning to quite admire Theresa May. Like Daisy, she might just pull this off.

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TM remarkable achievement (so far) is she has kept her cabinet together against all the odds

Except all the Cabinet minister who have resigned over the past months?

Most of them were useless

She picked them, though!

And they let her down

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice.......

She does seem to have made an above average number of dodgy picks.

She has but not in Corbyn's league

That's not the point; St Jeremy's LotO, not PM. There are those here who will tell you that once he's PM he'll do a great deal better at picking Ministers.

I'm not one of them, though!

God save us!

The section on Northern Ireland in the event of no deal is horrific . Absolute destruction of livelihoods . The DUP really are loathsome .

MarqueeMark said:

TheJezziah said:

Off Topic but I hope @bigjohnowls just meant he was putting the vile NSDAP troll types on ignore rather than leaving the site.

I wonder if he might be having a crisis of confidence in Corbyn.....

He's realised "he isn't the messiah, he's a very nasty anti-Semite"

O/T

"The Intersectionality Score Calculator":

https://intersectionalityscore.com

Nigel_Foremain said:

JohnO said:

I’m beginning to quite admire Theresa May. Like Daisy, she might just pull this off.

You are Philip May and I claim my £5

Cover blown...can never post here again.

williamglenn said:

Nice to see Remain’s allies are keeping up their good work.

https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1100313986615123968?s=21

Excellent. Hopefully TIG will have coalesced into a party by then. Under a quasi-PR system it might be an opportunity to send a message.

JohnO said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

JohnO said:

I’m beginning to quite admire Theresa May. Like Daisy, she might just pull this off.

You are Philip May and I claim my £5

Cover blown...can never post here again.

Sorry Philip.

A sensible call, but never going to happen, sadly:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/anti-racism-charity-demands-jeremy-corbyn-kicks-chris-williamson-out-of-labour_uk_5c755a12e4b0bf166203c407?ncid=other_twitter_cooo9wqtham&utm_campaign=share_twitter

rcs1000 said:

AndyJS said:

O/T

"The Intersectionality Score Calculator":

https://intersectionalityscore.com

I'm only more privileged that 61% of others, which sounds implausibly low.

Is dealing with Vanilla a privilege these days?

JohnO said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

JohnO said:

I’m beginning to quite admire Theresa May. Like Daisy, she might just pull this off.

You are Philip May and I claim my £5

Cover blown...can never post here again.

So that means I've had lunch with the spouses of the last two Prime Ministers.

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

JohnO said:

I’m beginning to quite admire Theresa May. Like Daisy, she might just pull this off.

You are Philip May and I claim my £5

Cover blown...can never post here again.

So that means I've had lunch with the spouses of the last two Prime Ministers.

Never knew George Osborne was married to Cameron, although it shouldn't have been a surprise really.

Verulamius said:

Could this see the end of the current rail franchising regime?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/rail-review-chair-says-franchising-cannot-continue-in-its-current-form

Keith Williams, independent chair of the first ‘root and branch’ Rail Review to be supported by government, will today (26 February 2019) announce that the rail franchising system cannot continue in the way it is now.

In the George Bradshaw Address, Keith Williams is expected to say:

I have heard a great deal about the franchising model….driving growth in passengers and benefits to services. But with this growth the needs of passengers have changed whilst many of the basic elements of our rail system have not kept pace.

Put bluntly, franchising cannot continue the way it is today. It is no longer delivering clear benefits for either taxpayers and farepayers.

I believe that for the railway to be successful it needs to put passengers at its heart.

We need to recognise that there is unlikely to be a ‘one size fits all’ solution which will work for every part of the country and all types of passenger.

Thanks for posting that. It'll be interesting to see where he goes with it: from that snippet, it doesn't sound like he thinks a return to BR is the solution. If so, I am not surprised.

Although I do have concerns this review will go the same way as the other reviews we've had over the years, e.g. Hansford.

rcs1000 said:

AndyJS said:

O/T

"The Intersectionality Score Calculator":

https://intersectionalityscore.com

I'm only more privileged that 61% of others, which sounds implausibly low.

No scales on the sliders - no value in the outputs.

williamglenn said:

Nice to see Remain’s allies are keeping up their good work.

https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1100313986615123968?s=21

Who is Leave Means Leave's De Valera to May or Gove's Collins?

Peston really does talk nonsense .

The opposite of his view is likely .

If changes to the backstop are made and the ERG still don’t support the deal then the chances of a second referendum go up.

They clearly then would be seen as wanting no deal and the rest of the party will turn against them.