You do know that in Scotland they mean the same !!!!!!
I confess I did not. So if that is true I have learnt something, which is always welcome.
I have also learned (courtesy of just now in curiosity googling 'Donkey' and 'Balloon') that there are such things as the two combined - i.e. Donkey Balloons.
Donkey Balloons are apparently "an advanced form of badgers testicles".
So assuming that they are also this in Scotland I suppose Malcolm could be back here very shortly with a sincere and credible assertion that Gordon Brown as PM was complete and utter Donkey Balloons.
A fascinating intervention by Watson. But why has he done it, and why now? I can see three broad possibilities:
1) He desperately wants Corbyn to sort out the problems and heal the divisions, and so has helpfully spelled out for him exactly what he needs to do in order to manage this.
2) He knows Corbyn can't and/or won't comply, and so is laying cover for a leadership challenge.
3) As in 2), but he intends to bring matters to a head, quickly, so that he can then lead either a mass exodus to TIG, or a separate party altogether.
@TSE seems to have gone mostly for 2) in the thread header. As has @Cyclefree, upthread.
My guess would be 3) with some 1) thrown in as wishful thinking. I suspect he knows he can't beat the cult on social media, although he may believe he's the one person who can, based on the fact that he won the Deputy Leader position under similar OMOV rules and his links to the unions.
A fascinating intervention by Watson. But why has he done it, and why now? I can see three broad possibilities:
1) He desperately wants Corbyn to sort out the problems and heal the divisions, and so has helpfully spelled out for him exactly what he needs to do in order to manage this.
2) He knows Corbyn can't and/or won't comply, and so is laying cover for a leadership challenge.
3) As in 2), but he intends to bring matters to a head, quickly, so that he can then lead either a mass exodus to TIG, or a separate party altogether.
@TSE seems to have gone mostly for 2) in the thread header. As has @Cyclefree, upthread.
My guess would be 3) with some 1) thrown in as wishful thinking. I suspect he knows he can't beat the cult on social media, although he may believe he's the one person who can, based on the fact that he won the Deputy Leader position under similar OMOV rules and his links to the unions.
That may be true but it did not cause the crash. The US Government's own enquiry did not blame Brown or the British government, although iirc it did mention Darling's pivotal decision to veto the rescue of Lehmans. I am inclined to take their word for it.
Many causes and (yes, absolutely) most of them were across the pond and nothing to do with Gordon Brown.
However, the cowboy culture of the City which ran out of control under him did contribute.
In his defence I will say that, back then, the prevailing wisdom was that the City could be trusted to manage risk, and was chipping in lots of tax revenue, so to have taken a stand against it would have been a lot to ask of him.
A fascinating intervention by Watson. But why has he done it, and why now? I can see three broad possibilities:
1) He desperately wants Corbyn to sort out the problems and heal the divisions, and so has helpfully spelled out for him exactly what he needs to do in order to manage this.
2) He knows Corbyn can't and/or won't comply, and so is laying cover for a leadership challenge.
3) As in 2), but he intends to bring matters to a head, quickly, so that he can then lead either a mass exodus to TIG, or a separate party altogether.
@TSE seems to have gone mostly for 2) in the thread header. As has @Cyclefree, upthread.
My guess would be 3) with some 1) thrown in as wishful thinking. I suspect he knows he can't beat the cult on social media, although he may believe he's the one person who can, based on the fact that he won the Deputy Leader position under similar OMOV rules and his links to the unions.
Brown may have bought the snake oil but this is irrelevant to the crash which started, as the saying has it, in America.
It was Born In The USA but the culture and behaviour of the City was not irrelevant. Much of the derivatives activity that contributed was either originated or booked through here. The City became a Wall St mini-me and ran riot on Gordon's watch.
There are also two very good questions which no admirers of Brown seem able to answer:
1) Why were our banks so heavily exposed to the American sub-prime market, to the extent that we actually had the worst banking crisis in Europe (albeit as we were not in the Euro we had more financial leeway to mitigate the impact of it than Ireland, Spain or Italy);
2) Why had public sector net debt risen from 30% of GDP in 2000 to nearly 40% in 2007 (at a time when the economy was officially at least growing rapidly) if he was such a good manager of public finances?
The first doesn't really have anything to do with Gordon Brown...
It does, given that it was his decision to make the BoE independent (albeit as chancellor), and set up the FSA to regulate the banks instead. Which is not to say that the BoE would necessarily have done a better job, but it's certainly valid to point fingers at Brown for a total screwup in one of our most important industries, where he'd instituted major changes to the regulatory environment ten years earlier.
"Corbynites should be concerned about Watson is doing this, and so publicly, anyone with an understanding of history knows Watson played a crucial role in the early departure of the great Satan Tony Blair. If Watson can help topple the three times general election winning leader he’ll be able to take down the general election loser that is Corbyn."
This argument might be a bit stronger if Watson hadn't already tried everything to get rid of Corbyn in 2016....and failed.
(For good measure, the following year, Watson then also tried and failed to oust Len McCluskey as Unite leader.)
How many MPs had just resigned from the party in 2016 in disgust at your leader's 'tolerance of anti-semitism and support for anti-semitic tropes?
Congratulations for missing the point as usual!
The thread header made the argument that Watson alone is enough to oust a leader, based on what happened with Blair. But then, how come when Watson publicly called for Corbyn to resign in 2016, and used all of his usual back-room manoeuvrings to try to to get him removed, it....didn't work?
A fascinating intervention by Watson. But why has he done it, and why now? I can see three broad possibilities:
1) He desperately wants Corbyn to sort out the problems and heal the divisions, and so has helpfully spelled out for him exactly what he needs to do in order to manage this.
2) He knows Corbyn can't and/or won't comply, and so is laying cover for a leadership challenge.
3) As in 2), but he intends to bring matters to a head, quickly, so that he can then lead either a mass exodus to TIG, or a separate party altogether.
@TSE seems to have gone mostly for 2) in the thread header. As has @Cyclefree, upthread.
My guess would be 3) with some 1) thrown in as wishful thinking. I suspect he knows he can't beat the cult on social media, although he may believe he's the one person who can, based on the fact that he won the Deputy Leader position under similar OMOV rules and his links to the unions.
A fascinating intervention by Watson. But why has he done it, and why now? I can see three broad possibilities:
1) He desperately wants Corbyn to sort out the problems and heal the divisions, and so has helpfully spelled out for him exactly what he needs to do in order to manage this.
2) He knows Corbyn can't and/or won't comply, and so is laying cover for a leadership challenge.
3) As in 2), but he intends to bring matters to a head, quickly, so that he can then lead either a mass exodus to TIG, or a separate party altogether.
@TSE seems to have gone mostly for 2) in the thread header. As has @Cyclefree, upthread.
My guess would be 3) with some 1) thrown in as wishful thinking. I suspect he knows he can't beat the cult on social media, although he may believe he's the one person who can, based on the fact that he won the Deputy Leader position under similar OMOV rules and his links to the unions.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
"Corbynites should be concerned about Watson is doing this, and so publicly, anyone with an understanding of history knows Watson played a crucial role in the early departure of the great Satan Tony Blair. If Watson can help topple the three times general election winning leader he’ll be able to take down the general election loser that is Corbyn."
This argument might be a bit stronger if Watson hadn't already tried everything to get rid of Corbyn in 2016....and failed.
(For good measure, the following year, Watson then also tried and failed to oust Len McCluskey as Unite leader.)
How many MPs had just resigned from the party in 2016 in disgust at your leader's 'tolerance of anti-semitism and support for anti-semitic tropes?
Congratulations for missing the point as usual!
The thread header made the argument that Watson alone is enough to oust a leader, based on what happened with Blair. But then, how come when Watson publicly called for Corbyn to resign in 2016, and used all of his usual back-room manoeuvrings to try to to get him removed, it....didn't work?
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Depended who will be more motivated, I suppose. As for signing with the end of the budget cycle, isn’t that what the WA does anyway?
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Depended who will be more motivated, I suppose. As for signing with the end of the budget cycle, isn’t that what the WA does anyway?
Yes, that is why 21 months works, it is the same as the WA, and we can go straight to FTA talks.
A fascinating intervention by Watson. But why has he done it, and why now? I can see three broad possibilities:
1) He desperately wants Corbyn to sort out the problems and heal the divisions, and so has helpfully spelled out for him exactly what he needs to do in order to manage this.
2) He knows Corbyn can't and/or won't comply, and so is laying cover for a leadership challenge.
3) As in 2), but he intends to bring matters to a head, quickly, so that he can then lead either a mass exodus to TIG, or a separate party altogether.
@TSE seems to have gone mostly for 2) in the thread header. As has @Cyclefree, upthread.
My guess would be 3) with some 1) thrown in as wishful thinking. I suspect he knows he can't beat the cult on social media, although he may believe he's the one person who can, based on the fact that he won the Deputy Leader position under similar OMOV rules and his links to the unions.
2) for me.
Nobody but Watson has the cover of legitimacy. He's pretty much bullet-proof, especially as Corbyn's Cronies KNOW he has an army of MP pledged to walk out if he's not taken seriously.
The question is - how long does Corbyn have in which to deliver? Not very long would be my guess. Before the next MV.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
Partly because the pressure came originally from Blairites like Adonis. But also because would it be a second or a third referendum?
There are also two very good questions which no admirers of Brown seem able to answer:
1) Why were our banks so heavily exposed to the American sub-prime market, to the extent that we actually had the worst banking crisis in Europe (albeit as we were not in the Euro we had more financial leeway to mitigate the impact of it than Ireland, Spain or Italy);
2) Why had public sector net debt risen from 30% of GDP in 2000 to nearly 40% in 2007 (at a time when the economy was officially at least growing rapidly) if he was such a good manager of public finances?
Well I am not a big admirer of GB as Chancellor but I will answer briefly as follows -
1) Because the City span out of control under the prevailing wisdom of markets know best and thus require only light touch regulation. The cowboys sharks and launderers got a pass due to the tax being collected.
2) Because New Labour at first paid debt down to prove how responsible they were, thus necessitating a splurging on of the taps, famine to feast, when they finally got around to boosting spending on public services.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Depended who will be more motivated, I suppose. As for signing with the end of the budget cycle, isn’t that what the WA does anyway?
Yes, that is why 21 months works, it is the same as the WA, and we can go straight to FTA talks.
Not if we are still a member, remember sequencing? That brilliant invention of the EU.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
#PutItToThePeople is the new hashtag.
You may not like branding, but #Peoplesvote has been a very effective bit of marketing. Even Tom Watson is planning to be at the next one.
A fascinating intervention by Watson. But why has he done it, and why now? I can see three broad possibilities:
1) He desperately wants Corbyn to sort out the problems and heal the divisions, and so has helpfully spelled out for him exactly what he needs to do in order to manage this.
2) He knows Corbyn can't and/or won't comply, and so is laying cover for a leadership challenge.
3) As in 2), but he intends to bring matters to a head, quickly, so that he can then lead either a mass exodus to TIG, or a separate party altogether.
@TSE seems to have gone mostly for 2) in the thread header. As has @Cyclefree, upthread.
My guess would be 3) with some 1) thrown in as wishful thinking. I suspect he knows he can't beat the cult on social media, although he may believe he's the one person who can, based on the fact that he won the Deputy Leader position under similar OMOV rules and his links to the unions.
2) for me.
Nobody but Watson has the cover of legitimacy. He's pretty much bullet-proof, especially as Corbyn's Cronies KNOW he has an army of MP pledged to walk out if he's not taken seriously.
The question is - how long does Corbyn have in which to deliver? Not very long would be my guess. Before the next MV.
But is there not a risk he will face a challenge from some Corbyn stooge - Long Bailey or Pidcock, perhaps - if he carries on like this? Indeed, to judge from her recent behaviour Thornberry is gearing up for a contest herself.
At that point, the lunatics have truly taken over the asylum.
What have we come to when Watson is the last relatively sane person left?
Is it really a negotiating period to just extend it to 2021? I thought they had said the WA was not up for renegotiating, so would they just give us 2 years to not pass it some more?
So in fact it is up for renegotiation, just not in the way May is trying. Fine, but in that case they should stop pretending the matter is closed.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
Because it is so much funnier to hear the respect-the-mandate leavers saying "You want a people's vote? You anti-democratic bastards!"
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Depended who will be more motivated, I suppose. As for signing with the end of the budget cycle, isn’t that what the WA does anyway?
Yes, that is why 21 months works, it is the same as the WA, and we can go straight to FTA talks.
Not if we are still a member, remember sequencing? That brilliant invention of the EU.
Oops, and signing = aligning. Damn phone.
Sequencing still works with a 21 month extension, and we get to see the Brexiteers alternative arrangements for the backstop.
It is a very sly plan B for both May and the EU. A WA while still in, rather than while being out, but on the ground, nothing has changed.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
Because it is so much funnier to hear the respect-the-mandate leavers saying "You want a people's vote? You anti-democratic bastards!"
That's a more honest answer than the twisting and turning that is usually supplied for the name, so I respect you a great deal for that than more mealy mouthed nonsense we get. And I back a second referendum.
A fascinating intervention by Watson. But why has he done it, and why now? I can see three broad possibilities:
1) He desperately wants Corbyn to sort out the problems and heal the divisions, and so has helpfully spelled out for him exactly what he needs to do in order to manage this.
2) He knows Corbyn can't and/or won't comply, and so is laying cover for a leadership challenge.
3) As in 2), but he intends to bring matters to a head, quickly, so that he can then lead either a mass exodus to TIG, or a separate party altogether.
@TSE seems to have gone mostly for 2) in the thread header. As has @Cyclefree, upthread.
My guess would be 3) with some 1) thrown in as wishful thinking. I suspect he knows he can't beat the cult on social media, although he may believe he's the one person who can, based on the fact that he won the Deputy Leader position under similar OMOV rules and his links to the unions.
2) for me.
Nobody but Watson has the cover of legitimacy. He's pretty much bullet-proof, especially as Corbyn's Cronies KNOW he has an army of MP pledged to walk out if he's not taken seriously.
The question is - how long does Corbyn have in which to deliver? Not very long would be my guess. Before the next MV.
But is there not a risk he will face a challenge from some Corbyn stooge - Long Bailey or Pidcock, perhaps - if he carries on like this? Indeed, to judge from her recent behaviour Thornberry is gearing up for a contest herself.
At that point, the lunatics have truly taken over the asylum.
What have we come to when Watson is the last relatively sane person left?
A challenge to Watson's position would be pretty pointless I think, because he doesn't actually have any power to do anything. Ridiculous though he is, he doesn't actually do any damage by being the deputy leader - Corbyn and the rest of the shadow cabinet can just carry on ignoring him, like they have for the past 3 years.
There are also two very good questions which no admirers of Brown seem able to answer:
1) Why were our banks so heavily exposed to the American sub-prime market, to the extent that we actually had the worst banking crisis in Europe (albeit as we were not in the Euro we had more financial leeway to mitigate the impact of it than Ireland, Spain or Italy);
2) Why had public sector net debt risen from 30% of GDP in 2000 to nearly 40% in 2007 (at a time when the economy was officially at least growing rapidly) if he was such a good manager of public finances?
Well I am not a big admirer of GB as Chancellor but I will answer briefly as follows -
1) Because the City span out of control under the prevailing wisdom of markets know best and thus require only light touch regulation. The cowboys sharks and launderers got a pass due to the tax being collected.
2) Because New Labour at first paid debt down to prove how responsible they were, thus necessitating a splurging on of the taps, famine to feast, when they finally got around to boosting spending on public services.
I don't find either answer convincing. Who set up and enforced (or should have enforced) the light touch regulation of the FSA? Brown and Darling.
And as for the second, why did he not raise taxes to pay for it? Why did he break his own 'rule', redefining current account spending as 'investment' so he browned borrowed (aaargh! autocorrect) for spending only? Well, you might answer, obviously, because he was a coward. Answer adjudged correct. But it doesn't refund redound (believe me or not, that was yet another Freudian autocorrect!) to his credit.
And I should note Corbyn's plans are a lot similar to Brown's than either would be comfortable admitting.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
Because it is so much funnier to hear the respect-the-mandate leavers saying "You want a people's vote? You anti-democratic bastards!"
That's a more honest answer than the twisting and turning that is usually supplied for the name, so I respect you a great deal for that than more mealy mouthed nonsense we get. And I back a second referendum.
The least bad next step remains ratifying the current deal. It’s still bloody awful.
I am sorry, I was having you on - bit naughty for me - like running 'through wheat fields' !!!
:-)
Well I'm glad you did - because it was that which triggered the chain of events which has led to me now knowing that Donkey Balloons is urban slang for Badgers Testicles.
What I have to do is work out how I can get that into a real physical world conversation the next time I have one - which will probably be at the checkout in Waitrose.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Depended who will be more motivated, I suppose. As for signing with the end of the budget cycle, isn’t that what the WA does anyway?
Yes, that is why 21 months works, it is the same as the WA, and we can go straight to FTA talks.
Not if we are still a member, remember sequencing? That brilliant invention of the EU.
Oops, and signing = aligning. Damn phone.
Sequencing still works with a 21 month extension, and we get to see the Brexiteers alternative arrangements for the backstop.
It is a very sly plan B for both May and the EU. A WA while still in, rather than while being out, but on the ground, nothing has changed.
Does it? You can't do anything in the 21 month period relating to the future relationship, since we'd still be members of the EU. Unless they are saying it's 21 months to solve the Irish border and then another 18-24 months after that under a transitional arrangement, which causes problems with the budget again.
I am sorry, I was having you on - bit naughty for me - like running 'through wheat fields' !!!
:-)
Well I'm glad you did - because it was that which triggered the chain of events which has led to me now knowing that Donkey Balloons is urban slang for Badgers Testicles.
What I now have to do is work out how I can get that into a real physical world conversation the next time I have one - which will probably be at the checkout in Waitrose.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
#PutItToThePeople is the new hashtag.
You may not like branding, but #Peoplesvote has been a very effective bit of marketing. Even Tom Watson is planning to be at the next one.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
A fascinating intervention by Watson. But why has he done it, and why now? I can see three broad possibilities:
1) He desperately wants Corbyn to sort out the problems and heal the divisions, and so has helpfully spelled out for him exactly what he needs to do in order to manage this.
2) He knows Corbyn can't and/or won't comply, and so is laying cover for a leadership challenge.
3) As in 2), but he intends to bring matters to a head, quickly, so that he can then lead either a mass exodus to TIG, or a separate party altogether.
@TSE seems to have gone mostly for 2) in the thread header. As has @Cyclefree, upthread.
My guess would be 3) with some 1) thrown in as wishful thinking. I suspect he knows he can't beat the cult on social media, although he may believe he's the one person who can, based on the fact that he won the Deputy Leader position under similar OMOV rules and his links to the unions.
2) for me.
Nobody but Watson has the cover of legitimacy. He's pretty much bullet-proof, especially as Corbyn's Cronies KNOW he has an army of MP pledged to walk out if he's not taken seriously.
The question is - how long does Corbyn have in which to deliver? Not very long would be my guess. Before the next MV.
But is there not a risk he will face a challenge from some Corbyn stooge - Long Bailey or Pidcock, perhaps - if he carries on like this? Indeed, to judge from her recent behaviour Thornberry is gearing up for a contest herself.
At that point, the lunatics have truly taken over the asylum.
What have we come to when Watson is the last relatively sane person left?
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
A fascinating intervention by Watson. But why has he done it, and why now? I can see three broad possibilities:
1) He desperately wants Corbyn to sort out the problems and heal the divisions, and so has helpfully spelled out for him exactly what he needs to do in order to manage this.
2) He knows Corbyn can't and/or won't comply, and so is laying cover for a leadership challenge.
3) As in 2), but he intends to bring matters to a head, quickly, so that he can then lead either a mass exodus to TIG, or a separate party altogether.
@TSE seems to have gone mostly for 2) in the thread header. As has @Cyclefree, upthread.
My guess would be 3) with some 1) thrown in as wishful thinking. I suspect he knows he can't beat the cult on social media, although he may believe he's the one person who can, based on the fact that he won the Deputy Leader position under similar OMOV rules and his links to the unions.
2) for me.
Nobody but Watson has the cover of legitimacy. He's pretty much bullet-proof, especially as Corbyn's Cronies KNOW he has an army of MP pledged to walk out if he's not taken seriously.
The question is - how long does Corbyn have in which to deliver? Not very long would be my guess. Before the next MV.
But is there not a risk he will face a challenge from some Corbyn stooge - Long Bailey or Pidcock, perhaps - if he carries on like this? Indeed, to judge from her recent behaviour Thornberry is gearing up for a contest herself.
At that point, the lunatics have truly taken over the asylum.
What have we come to when Watson is the last relatively sane person left?
A challenge to Watson's position would be pretty pointless I think, because he doesn't actually have any power to do anything. Ridiculous though he is, he doesn't actually do any damage by being the deputy leader - Corbyn and the rest of the shadow cabinet can just carry on ignoring him, like they have for the past 3 years.
And if they do labour will be split asunder within weeks
Watson is trying to stop a mass exodus to TIG, not trying to lead one. His independent policy development thing tells MPs they don't need to leave to have freedom, they can have it within the party, and with a move against the cult on Twitter/Facebook he's hoping to persuade them they can operate without being abused.
And when that fails - and he will know it's a likely probability - perhaps a mass walkout really is a possibility. But I can't see it being to TIG when TIG will have a tranche of former Tories. I have talked in the past about the parties largely fracturing into semi-independent sub-parties and this still feels like the likely contingency here. Like the ERG they stay in the party but with their own policy platform, own whip etc. The difference to the ERG will be that the majority of Labour MPs will be in it
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Depended who will be more motivated, I suppose. As for signing with the end of the budget cycle, isn’t that what the WA does anyway?
Yes, that is why 21 months works, it is the same as the WA, and we can go straight to FTA talks.
Not if we are still a member, remember sequencing? That brilliant invention of the EU.
Oops, and signing = aligning. Damn phone.
Sequencing still works with a 21 month extension, and we get to see the Brexiteers alternative arrangements for the backstop.
It is a very sly plan B for both May and the EU. A WA while still in, rather than while being out, but on the ground, nothing has changed.
Does it? You can't do anything in the 21 month period relating to the future relationship, since we'd still be members of the EU. Unless they are saying it's 21 months to solve the Irish border and then another 18-24 months after that under a transitional arrangement, which causes problems with the budget again.
The Brady amendment seems to think 21 months can solve the backstop, so plenty of time. With a 21 month extension there is no need for a further WA, just straight to FTA. Sorted.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Depended who will be more motivated, I suppose. As for signing with the end of the budget cycle, isn’t that what the WA does anyway?
Yes, that is why 21 months works, it is the same as the WA, and we can go straight to FTA talks.
Not if we are still a member, remember sequencing? That brilliant invention of the EU.
Oops, and signing = aligning. Damn phone.
Sequencing still works with a 21 month extension, and we get to see the Brexiteers alternative arrangements for the backstop.
It is a very sly plan B for both May and the EU. A WA while still in, rather than while being out, but on the ground, nothing has changed.
Does it? You can't do anything in the 21 month period relating to the future relationship, since we'd still be members of the EU. Unless they are saying it's 21 months to solve the Irish border and then another 18-24 months after that under a transitional arrangement, which causes problems with the budget again.
The Brady amendment seems to think 21 months can solve the backstop, so plenty of time. With a 21 month extension there is no need for a further WA, just straight to FTA. Sorted.
But we can't negotiate an FTA during the 21 month extension, because we'll still be solving the WA. I know, the EU's position is absurd.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
#PutItToThePeople is the new hashtag.
You may not like branding, but #Peoplesvote has been a very effective bit of marketing. Even Tom Watson is planning to be at the next one.
Brown may have bought the snake oil but this is irrelevant to the crash which started, as the saying has it, in America.
It was Born In The USA but the culture and behaviour of the City was not irrelevant. Much of the derivatives activity that contributed was either originated or booked through here. The City became a Wall St mini-me and ran riot on Gordon's watch.
There are also two very good questions which no admirers of Brown seem able to answer:
1) Why were our banks so heavily exposed to the American sub-prime market, to the extent that we actually had the worst banking crisis in Europe (albeit as we were not in the Euro we had more financial leeway to mitigate the impact of it than Ireland, Spain or Italy);
2) Why had public sector net debt risen from 30% of GDP in 2000 to nearly 40% in 2007 (at a time when the economy was officially at least growing rapidly) if he was such a good manager of public finances?
Ydoethur , he was like Canute , the moron thought he had eradicated boom and bust , he was deluded in thinking that he actually had some talent.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
A comment I have seen on UK polling site re the Delta poll- 'I am quite sceptical about this poll:
They have 35% of 18-24s voting CON, and only 2% voting LDM. Leave are only 4pts behind remain in London??? 35-54s are more pro-LAB than 25-34s. LDM on 6% without TIG included seems very low. 31% of LDM voters to vote leave?'
I see we are in full panic mode over a couple of polls desperately trying to rubbish them. Did you check the Scottish sub-samples for the Labour surge. And yet you claim to be a non-Labour voter. Yeah right.
Labour are dead in Scotland
Nobody told Justin124
Oh he was saying that in May 2017 when he dismissed suggestions that the SNP would fall below 50 seats.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
#PutItToThePeople is the new hashtag.
You may not like branding, but #Peoplesvote has been a very effective bit of marketing. Even Tom Watson is planning to be at the next one.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
Partly because the pressure came originally from Blairites like Adonis. But also because would it be a second or a third referendum?
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
If May agrees to a 21 month delay, she will destroy the Tory Party. She won’t do it.
HOC may force it
It can’t force her to do anything. If they want someone to do it, then the Tory arch-Europhiles need to find the testicular fortitude to betray their party and put Corbyn in office to action the extension.
The failure of politicians on all sides to take their responsibilities seriously is the most infuriating aspect of Brexit. The best argument against it is that we would be giving more power to these imbeciles.
Brown may have bought the snake oil but this is irrelevant to the crash which started, as the saying has it, in America.
It was Born In The USA but the culture and behaviour of the City was not irrelevant. Much of the derivatives activity that contributed was either originated or booked through here. The City became a Wall St mini-me and ran riot on Gordon's watch.
There are also two very good questions which no admirers of Brown seem able to answer:
1) Why were our banks so heavily exposed to the American sub-prime market, to the extent that we actually had the worst banking crisis in Europe (albeit as we were not in the Euro we had more financial leeway to mitigate the impact of it than Ireland, Spain or Italy);
2) Why had public sector net debt risen from 30% of GDP in 2000 to nearly 40% in 2007 (at a time when the economy was officially at least growing rapidly) if he was such a good manager of public finances?
Ydoethur , he was like Canute , the moron thought he had eradicated boom and bust , he was deluded in thinking that he actually had some talent.
I might have forgiven him for thinking that - he was hardly alone in it, after all - had he not later tried to lie about what he thought and said.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
#PutItToThePeople is the new hashtag.
You may not like branding, but #Peoplesvote has been a very effective bit of marketing. Even Tom Watson is planning to be at the next one.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
#PutItToThePeople is the new hashtag.
You may not like branding, but #Peoplesvote has been a very effective bit of marketing. Even Tom Watson is planning to be at the next one.
If May agrees to a 21 month delay, she will destroy the Tory Party. She won’t do it.
HOC may force it
It can’t force her to do anything. If they want someone to do it, then the Tory arch-Europhiles need to find the testicular fortitude to betray their party and put Corbyn in office to action the extension.
The failure of politicians on all sides to take their responsibilities seriously is the most infuriating aspect of Brexit. The best argument against it is that we would be giving more power to these imbeciles.
I think the majority of her party and the opposition would provide the authority and ERG could not do anything to prevent it. It would be the ultimate irony for them as they jeopardise their last best chance of brexit
Brown may have bought the snake oil but this is irrelevant to the crash which started, as the saying has it, in America.
It was Born In The USA but the culture and behaviour of the City was not irrelevant. Much of the derivatives activity that contributed was either originated or booked through here. The City became a Wall St mini-me and ran riot on Gordon's watch.
There are also two very good questions which no admirers of Brown seem able to answer:
1) Why were our banks so heavily exposed to the American sub-prime market, to the extent that we actually had the worst banking crisis in Europe (albeit as we were not in the Euro we had more financial leeway to mitigate the impact of it than Ireland, Spain or Italy);
2) Why had public sector net debt risen from 30% of GDP in 2000 to nearly 40% in 2007 (at a time when the economy was officially at least growing rapidly) if he was such a good manager of public finances?
The first doesn't really have anything to do with Gordon Brown. If you want to blame any politician, I suppose Margaret Thatcher, who internationalised banking in the City, but that's a stretch too.
The second criticism is valid IMO.
I disagree. A big problem was that our banks were chronically under-capitalised, or using worthless collateral in place of capital, and that was at least partly because of Brown's (and Darling's, it should be noted) infamous 'tripartite system' of regulation. Of course, Thatcher's liberalisation set the parameters, but Brown's meddling can't be overlooked.
Bank risk is complex. Sure there were shortcuts bring taken prior to 2008, and in some cases more than shortcuts, but the possibly worrying thing is that banks were largely doing what they were supposed to do. Tier 1 capital requirements have increased to levels that were unprecedented anywhere in 2008, more rigorous stress testing, better reporting etc but nothing fundamentally different from before. In any case the Credit Crunch had its origins in the US and caused a near heart attack in the global capitalist system. None of this has anything to do with Gordon Brown, but at least he responded decisively and quickly to the crisis. PMs get tested by how they react to the events of their premiership. Gordon Brown dealt well with his events, unlike some other PMs
Feels like a second referendum would unite Labour (almost all of it anyway) but Corbyn still cannot quite get there, while the Tories while superficially looking in a better position cannot be united by any option, since the least damaging option for the party, no deal, still splits them horribly (it is the least damaging inasmuch as while they would lose people over it, it would not lose them dozens that revoking or delaying would).
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
#PutItToThePeople is the new hashtag.
You may not like branding, but #Peoplesvote has been a very effective bit of marketing. Even Tom Watson is planning to be at the next one.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
Partly because the pressure came originally from Blairites like Adonis. But also because would it be a second or a third referendum?
I don't find either answer convincing. Who set up and enforced (or should have enforced) the light touch regulation of the FSA? Brown and Darling.
And as for the second, why did he not raise taxes to pay for it? Why did he break his own 'rule', redefining current account spending as 'investment' so he browned borrowed (aaargh! autocorrect) for spending only? Well, you might answer, obviously, because he was a coward. Answer adjudged correct. But it doesn't refund redound (believe me or not, that was yet another Freudian autocorrect!) to his credit.
And I should note Corbyn's plans are a lot similar to Brown's than either would be comfortable admitting.
Of course Brown was responsible for the slack regulatory regime and to this extent is culpable. As I say, I am not a fan of his Chancellorship. But pretty much everybody underestimated the venal greed and stupidity of the City. Back then the prevailing wisdom was that the sector knew what it was doing and ought to be left to its own devices. Given that, and given the amount of tax being collected, it is not surprising that Gordon went along with it. I'm sure it's one of his biggest regrets. So, yes, a share of the blame. Absolutely. But the man primarily to blame? No, that is Tory propaganda. If regulation had been left with the BoE, the crash would still have happened and happened to about the same extent and in approx the same timeframe.
On the debt, my point is that at first NL ran a very tight fiscal ship when there was in fact plenty of headroom for boosting spending. So debt came down. Then from this new (and unnecessarily lower) point they ramped spending up to meet their commitment to improve public services. Pity about the ruinously expensive con perpetrated on the public sector by the private sector that was PFI (chosen by GB for reprehensible off balance sheet financing reasons) but still, the investment was needed and broadly approved by all. Upshot was that we saw famine then feast for budgets rather than the smoother rise which would have been better and easier to manage. But where we ended up was the same and was nothing to frighten the horses.
Phew! And this is off topic too. Please tell me you're happy and satisfied with that. I'll take a 7/10, don't need an A star.
Feels like a second referendum would unite Labour (almost all of it anyway) but Corbyn still cannot quite get there, while the Tories while superficially looking in a better position cannot be united by any option, since the least damaging option for the party, no deal, still splits them horribly (it is the least damaging inasmuch as while they would lose people over it, it would not lose them dozens that revoking or delaying would).
Not the 50 or more labour mps in leave seats, many whom have declared they would vote down a referendum
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
#PutItToThePeople is the new hashtag.
You may not like branding, but #Peoplesvote has been a very effective bit of marketing. Even Tom Watson is planning to be at the next one.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
#PutItToThePeople is the new hashtag.
You may not like branding, but #Peoplesvote has been a very effective bit of marketing. Even Tom Watson is planning to be at the next one.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
#PutItToThePeople is the new hashtag.
You may not like branding, but #Peoplesvote has been a very effective bit of marketing. Even Tom Watson is planning to be at the next one.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
#PutItToThePeople is the new hashtag.
You may not like branding, but #Peoplesvote has been a very effective bit of marketing. Even Tom Watson is planning to be at the next one.
If May agrees to a 21 month delay, she will destroy the Tory Party. She won’t do it.
HOC may force it
It can’t force her to do anything. If they want someone to do it, then the Tory arch-Europhiles need to find the testicular fortitude to betray their party and put Corbyn in office to action the extension.
The failure of politicians on all sides to take their responsibilities seriously is the most infuriating aspect of Brexit. The best argument against it is that we would be giving more power to these imbeciles.
I think the majority of her party and the opposition would provide the authority and ERG could not do anything to prevent it. It would be the ultimate irony for them as they jeopardise their last best chance of brexit
If a motion passes for such a thing, enough ERGers will leave the party to ensure that we have an election. The party will then experience (and would deserve) a 1997 style result.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
#PutItToThePeople is the new hashtag.
You may not like branding, but #Peoplesvote has been a very effective bit of marketing. Even Tom Watson is planning to be at the next one.
If May agrees to a 21 month delay, she will destroy the Tory Party. She won’t do it.
HOC may force it
It can’t force her to do anything. If they want someone to do it, then the Tory arch-Europhiles need to find the testicular fortitude to betray their party and put Corbyn in office to action the extension.
The failure of politicians on all sides to take their responsibilities seriously is the most infuriating aspect of Brexit. The best argument against it is that we would be giving more power to these imbeciles.
I think the majority of her party and the opposition would provide the authority and ERG could not do anything to prevent it. It would be the ultimate irony for them as they jeopardise their last best chance of brexit
If a motion passes for such a thing, enough ERGers will leave the party to ensure that we have an election. The party will then experience (and would deserve) a 1997 style result.
Corbyn with a clear majority. It’ll be fun.
You seem to overlook the changed position. ERG can leave but those that do will not take down the government as TIG and the lib dems provide confidence and supply. Neither want a GE for a long time
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
#PutItToThePeople is the new hashtag.
You may not like branding, but #Peoplesvote has been a very effective bit of marketing. Even Tom Watson is planning to be at the next one.
It is still bollox, I am no fanboy of the SNP, they are not the be all and end all, similar to other politicians except for fact they are for independence. That is my only connection with them, I want independence.
If May agrees to a 21 month delay, she will destroy the Tory Party. She won’t do it.
HOC may force it
It can’t force her to do anything. If they want someone to do it, then the Tory arch-Europhiles need to find the testicular fortitude to betray their party and put Corbyn in office to action the extension.
The failure of politicians on all sides to take their responsibilities seriously is the most infuriating aspect of Brexit. The best argument against it is that we would be giving more power to these imbeciles.
I think the majority of her party and the opposition would provide the authority and ERG could not do anything to prevent it. It would be the ultimate irony for them as they jeopardise their last best chance of brexit
If a motion passes for such a thing, enough ERGers will leave the party to ensure that we have an election. The party will then experience (and would deserve) a 1997 style result.
Corbyn with a clear majority. It’ll be fun.
You seem to overlook the changed position. ERG can leave but those that do will not take down the government as TIG and the lib dems provide confidence and supply. Neither want a GE for a long time
Shall we do some maths?
The government has an effective majority of 7. The ERG has around 80 members. Lib Dems plus TIGers equals 23. There are not enough of the latter to counteract the ERG.
It will be interesting to see what the deferential Tory MPs do when the party’s poll rating is back to 30%.
If May agrees to a 21 month delay, she will destroy the Tory Party. She won’t do it.
HOC may force it
It can’t force her to do anything. If they want someone to do it, then the Tory arch-Europhiles need to find the testicular fortitude to betray their party and put Corbyn in office to action the extension.
The failure of politicians on all sides to take their responsibilities seriously is the most infuriating aspect of Brexit. The best argument against it is that we would be giving more power to these imbeciles.
I think the majority of her party and the opposition would provide the authority and ERG could not do anything to prevent it. It would be the ultimate irony for them as they jeopardise their last best chance of brexit
If a motion passes for such a thing, enough ERGers will leave the party to ensure that we have an election. The party will then experience (and would deserve) a 1997 style result.
Corbyn with a clear majority. It’ll be fun.
You seem to overlook the changed position. ERG can leave but those that do will not take down the government as TIG and the lib dems provide confidence and supply. Neither want a GE for a long time
Shall we do some maths?
The government has an effective majority of 7. The ERG has around 80 members. Lib Dems plus TIGers equals 23. There are not enough of the latter to counteract the ERG.
It will be interesting to see what the deferential Tory MPs do when the party’s poll rating is back to 30%.
You are not suggesting 80 ERG will resign the whip and end their careers are you.
A handful may but I doubt even that and I expect many more joining TIG from labour
On the debt, my point is that at first NL ran a very tight fiscal ship when there was in fact plenty of headroom for boosting spending. So debt came down. Then from this new (and unnecessarily lower) point they ramped spending up to meet their commitment to improve public services. Pity about the ruinously expensive con perpetrated on the public sector by the private sector that was PFI (chosen by GB for reprehensible off balance sheet financing reasons) but still, the investment was needed and broadly approved by all. Upshot was that we saw famine then feast for budgets rather than the smoother rise which would have been better and easier to manage. But where we ended up was the same and was nothing to frighten the horses.
Phew! And this is off topic too. Please tell me you're happy and satisfied with that. I'll take a 7/10, don't need an A star.
But why do that by borrowing? And by borrowing more than was declared, as you quite rightly note and I had not mentioned.
I have no objection to more money for public services (I am a teacher after all!). But I don't think it is acceptable to be hugely increasing debt in boom years when all economic indicators - inflation, unemployment, housing, etc - are favourable. It could and should have been done by reformed and increased taxes.
By doing it the way he did, Brown damaged our economy needlessly. Yes, you are quite right to the extent that the events that happened were unforeseen by most, but the fact is what he was doing was always going to end badly at some point.
I would also add that by borrowing to spend vast amounts rather than making gradual but sustained increases a lot of the money was wasted. Even Andrew Rawnsley comments on how less would have been more for the NHS, as they simply couldn't absorb the money they were given and spend it effectively. To put it at its most ridiculous, how many useless sets of traffic lights were put up so they wouldn't lose the money for next year? Yet still our power and water grids are unfit for purpose.
And finally, even allowing for that many of his spending commitments were unfunded and led to major pressures elsewhere (council tax rises, anyone)?
A good Chancellor spends what he (one day it will be 'they') can afford. A great one changes the terms of trade so they can afford more. A bad one pisses money around to buy votes and hopes they have moved on before the crisis hits. Brown was emphatically type 3.
All the advantages of the WA, without the small inconvenince of needing a vote. In practice much the same only we are in pretending to be out, rather than out pretending to be in. Dec 20 still at 32 on BFEx.
I’m curious why the EU is in favour of this. The people we will end up sending to the European Parliament will make UKIP look like the WI.
It will also be extremely damaging to the Tory Party’s standing in the opinion polls. Surely May knows that?
I think that if we have MEPs then Remain parties will do very well. UKIP MEPs are just punch and judy entertainment.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
Just a suggestion. Why not call it a second referendum rather than the silly 'peoples vote'
They should stick to 'confirmatory referendum'.
#FinalSay
Wasn't the vote in 2016 supposed to be the final say?
It's amazing how politicians who you despise can-all-of-a-sudden become a thoroughly decent person once they do something you agree with. It wasn't long ago that Watson was The Fat Nonce Finder General on here. Now, because he backs a second referendum and has set his sights on Corbyn, he's atop bloke! Truly my enemy's enemy......
Comments
However, the cowboy culture of the City which ran out of control under him did contribute.
In his defence I will say that, back then, the prevailing wisdom was that the City could be trusted to manage risk, and was chipping in lots of tax revenue, so to have taken a stand against it would have been a lot to ask of him.
The thread header made the argument that Watson alone is enough to oust a leader, based on what happened with Blair. But then, how come when Watson publicly called for Corbyn to resign in 2016, and used all of his usual back-room manoeuvrings to try to to get him removed, it....didn't work?
Such innocent times.
21 months is to the end of the budget cycle, and allows both a solution to the Backstop (such as permanent CU) to be negotiated, and of course a #peoplesvote.
The question is - how long does Corbyn have in which to deliver? Not very long would be my guess. Before the next MV.
1) Because the City span out of control under the prevailing wisdom of markets know best and thus require only light touch regulation. The cowboys sharks and launderers got a pass due to the tax being collected.
2) Because New Labour at first paid debt down to prove how responsible they were, thus necessitating a splurging on of the taps, famine to feast, when they finally got around to boosting spending on public services.
Oops, and signing = aligning. Damn phone.
You may not like branding, but #Peoplesvote has been a very effective bit of marketing. Even Tom Watson is planning to be at the next one.
https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1099640535902547968?s=19
At that point, the lunatics have truly taken over the asylum.
What have we come to when Watson is the last relatively sane person left?
So in fact it is up for renegotiation, just not in the way May is trying. Fine, but in that case they should stop pretending the matter is closed.
It is a very sly plan B for both May and the EU. A WA while still in, rather than while being out, but on the ground, nothing has changed.
And as for the second, why did he not raise taxes to pay for it? Why did he break his own 'rule', redefining current account spending as 'investment' so he
brownedborrowed (aaargh! autocorrect) for spending only? Well, you might answer, obviously, because he was a coward. Answer adjudged correct. But it doesn'trefundredound (believe me or not, that was yet another Freudian autocorrect!) to his credit.And I should note Corbyn's plans are a lot similar to Brown's than either would be comfortable admitting.
https://www.facebook.com/hoveandportslade/posts/1160551984118502?__xts__[0]=68.ARBlmxKq7wuXBpdthC_YVK3g-_C9F1d7acu08QvkMzcJ0UjSNzGz7BGEHDTrAZ-sOZUmg7hzAIfVqvQ-tHCzwdV8Ux6KRun1tJnor0-p4PVpku4rCabjIWRyR04AHhktQOHTJt4k7leF19TDHCr2kU24LRcEw-GlpnqTxAGKJ9C9cZaHbxgTzhnY5pY7a9m-TjIvEldFq_71Fy33btnm6x7Hf5RgBgd-GNIgX0AOOwcAQZdC-vcADr5MRmyS61IcowKSh0RGqBEd9X9OtpVPtsR6rOxHY4qMxMhK1jRQXSeQSjIIx62SHxCfw-NJKGrG25NfLPiGWSWPbsYP6SQX_3Ff1JwWqQsgWq6v3vcjcOFUh_fNuV-xp_3-4a6Sq6khVJa04H-7n5R4FIhKMtlC9IyRXoIn5bH4&__tn__=C-R
Well I'm glad you did - because it was that which triggered the chain of events which has led to me now knowing that Donkey Balloons is urban slang for Badgers Testicles.
What I have to do is work out how I can get that into a real physical world conversation the next time I have one - which will probably be at the checkout in Waitrose.
Will report back.
His fondness for Monty Python has me on his side.
MPs seem to be getting targeted more and more.
Edit: Great reply from Peter Kyle, perfect response.
And when that fails - and he will know it's a likely probability - perhaps a mass walkout really is a possibility. But I can't see it being to TIG when TIG will have a tranche of former Tories. I have talked in the past about the parties largely fracturing into semi-independent sub-parties and this still feels like the likely contingency here. Like the ERG they stay in the party but with their own policy platform, own whip etc. The difference to the ERG will be that the majority of Labour MPs will be in it
PS: I am struggling to be as nice about him, rather than give my real opinion.
I do hope if there's a second referendum, Leave lead with the hashtag #StickItToThePoliticians...
The failure of politicians on all sides to take their responsibilities seriously is the most infuriating aspect of Brexit. The best argument against it is that we would be giving more power to these imbeciles.
https://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/factcheck+no+more+boom+and+bust/2564157.html
On the debt, my point is that at first NL ran a very tight fiscal ship when there was in fact plenty of headroom for boosting spending. So debt came down. Then from this new (and unnecessarily lower) point they ramped spending up to meet their commitment to improve public services. Pity about the ruinously expensive con perpetrated on the public sector by the private sector that was PFI (chosen by GB for reprehensible off balance sheet financing reasons) but still, the investment was needed and broadly approved by all. Upshot was that we saw famine then feast for budgets rather than the smoother rise which would have been better and easier to manage. But where we ended up was the same and was nothing to frighten the horses.
Phew! And this is off topic too. Please tell me you're happy and satisfied with that. I'll take a 7/10, don't need an A star.
Corbyn with a clear majority. It’ll be fun.
And he was wrong on that too - the 'boom' bit has gone missing ever since they got back in.
https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1099731186216259584
The government has an effective majority of 7. The ERG has around 80 members. Lib Dems plus TIGers equals 23. There are not enough of the latter to counteract the ERG.
It will be interesting to see what the deferential Tory MPs do when the party’s poll rating is back to 30%.
A handful may but I doubt even that and I expect many more joining TIG from labour
I have no objection to more money for public services (I am a teacher after all!). But I don't think it is acceptable to be hugely increasing debt in boom years when all economic indicators - inflation, unemployment, housing, etc - are favourable. It could and should have been done by reformed and increased taxes.
By doing it the way he did, Brown damaged our economy needlessly. Yes, you are quite right to the extent that the events that happened were unforeseen by most, but the fact is what he was doing was always going to end badly at some point.
I would also add that by borrowing to spend vast amounts rather than making gradual but sustained increases a lot of the money was wasted. Even Andrew Rawnsley comments on how less would have been more for the NHS, as they simply couldn't absorb the money they were given and spend it effectively. To put it at its most ridiculous, how many useless sets of traffic lights were put up so they wouldn't lose the money for next year? Yet still our power and water grids are unfit for purpose.
And finally, even allowing for that many of his spending commitments were unfunded and led to major pressures elsewhere (council tax rises, anyone)?
A good Chancellor spends what he (one day it will be 'they') can afford. A great one changes the terms of trade so they can afford more. A bad one pisses money around to buy votes and hopes they have moved on before the crisis hits. Brown was emphatically type 3.
Have a good evening.