Not sure you could scream Fuck Business louder than Theresa May has done today.
If May was saying now she was happy to take us to No Deal that would be saying a loud 'Fuck Business', instead she is delaying the meaningful vote until just before the proposed Art 50 extension would kick if Cooper Letwin passes in in an effort to force the ERG to back her Deal
Though a coerced Deal forced by May on either ERG or Labour is not likely to be comfortable afterwards. The coerced will repudiate, revoke or fail to pass supporting legislation. A forced Deal just sets up a second round of poisoned rancour.
A freely agreed Deal is a different matter, but that is a unicorn with wings and a magic wand.
If the Deal is passed into law that is it, yes the ERG may throw a tantrum but they cannot then repudiate their vote once it has passed into law and obtained royal assent and the EU has also ratified it
GE makes no difference given the ERG will all refuse to back the Deal regardless in personal manifestos preferring No Deal, extension of Art 50 is her best chance of forcing the ERG to back the Deal
Whether the GE makes a difference depends on the result of it. For example, the ERG's influence on a Labour majority government would be near zero.
I agree that the threat of extension is her best chance of pressurizing the Hard Brexit headbangers into backing her Deal.
I think there are a clear majority of MP's who would easily place EU membership over party loyalty....the next few weeks we will see how this unfolds in the HoC....
That is what we are about to find out. Fascinating it will be too. Privilege to be alive as a politics nut in this moment. It's like being a squirrel in a nut bowl.
We agree that No Deal is unthinkable therefore the choice is TM deal or something else. We agree that the TM deal will probably go through - but if it doesn't what will the 'something else' be? It will obviously require an extension, yes, again agreed, but then what? There are 5 possibles -
1) TM deal goes through during the extension, or it doesn't and so as a last resort she - 2) Revokes. 3) Offers REF2. 4) Adopts Labour's Brexit policy. 5) Calls a GE.
Now it might be (1). I think that is likely. But if not (and we must contemplate this) then she must choose 2 or 3 or 4 or 5.
I think (5) in those circumstances is by no means out of the question.
OK so you 100% rule it out. Fair enough. Surprising level of certainty but I like it.
Who agrees no deal is unthinkable? I voted remain uncomfortably as I thought disentwining would be awkward. With the way things are now I think personally the only way to start healing the country is now no deal and then move closer. Revoke will have huge repercussions to our democracy, Mays deal will never pass due to our mp's trying to get what they prefer whether its remain or no deal.
Who agrees no deal is unthinkable? I voted remain uncomfortably as I thought disentwining would be awkward. With the way things are now I think personally the only way to start healing the country is now no deal and then move closer. Revoke will have huge repercussions to our democracy, Mays deal will never pass due to our mp's trying to get what they prefer whether its remain or no deal.
Ah, just meant myself and the poster I was responding to.
I do think NO DEAL would be so damaging that TM will not allow it - and in any case would be stopped by her cabinet and parliament even if she tried.
But plenty disagree. NO DEAL is about a 20% chance per the betting market.
We agree that No Deal is unthinkable therefore the choice is TM deal or something else. We agree that the TM deal will probably go through - but if it doesn't what will the 'something else' be? It will obviously require an extension, yes, again agreed, but then what? There are 5 possibles -
1) TM deal goes through during the extension, or it doesn't and so as a last resort she - 2) Revokes. 3) Offers REF2. 4) Adopts Labour's Brexit policy. 5) Calls a GE.
Now it might be (1). I think that is likely. But if not (and we must contemplate this) then she must choose 2 or 3 or 4 or 5.
I think (5) in those circumstances is by no means out of the question.
OK so you 100% rule it out. Fair enough. Surprising level of certainty but I like it.
Who agrees no deal is unthinkable? I voted remain uncomfortably as I thought disentwining would be awkward. With the way things are now I think personally the only way to start healing the country is now no deal and then move closer. Revoke will have huge repercussions to our democracy, Mays deal will never pass due to our mp's trying to get what they prefer whether its remain or no deal.
Heal our country? No Deal risks breaking up the UK and crashing the economy and civil strife, about a million miles from that and don't think diehard Leavers will suddenly cave in either if they have what they want. The Deal remains by far the best bet to avoid the deepest divisions of the extremist Leave or Remain options and the key is to force the ERG to face either that or extension to Art 50 and BINO/EUref2
Comments
I agree that the threat of extension is her best chance of pressurizing the Hard Brexit headbangers into backing her Deal.
Might even work in the end.
I do think NO DEAL would be so damaging that TM will not allow it - and in any case would be stopped by her cabinet and parliament even if she tried.
But plenty disagree. NO DEAL is about a 20% chance per the betting market.
The Deal remains by far the best bet to avoid the deepest divisions of the extremist Leave or Remain options and the key is to force the ERG to face either that or extension to Art 50 and BINO/EUref2