politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s no longer the “Next PM” betting favourite as punters
Comments
-
No. Ophelia.SandyRentool said:
Did he have a sister called Suki?oxfordsimon said:
I have recently borrowed some vintage sporting equipment from someone called Richard Dick.SandyRentool said:
I recently saw a van bearing the name "Rick Hunter".ydoethur said:
Poor man. What a name.justin124 said:
Indeed - though Labour did come close in the 1985 by election on current boundaries - Richard Willey was the candidate.YBarddCwsc said:
As you say, boundary changes.justin124 said:
Labour did come close at the July 1985 by election with the Tories being pushed into third place. For many years prior to 1979 it was a Labour seat - albeit the boundaries were then more favourable for them.YBarddCwsc said:Re Brecon & Radnor.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The southern rim of B&R used to include the northern edge of the South Wales coalfield.
No more, it is a very rural seat. If the Tories want to win any by-election, then need to pick a farmer.
I think shortening Richard to Rick rather than Dick was a wise decision.
You would have thought his parents could have worked out that wasn't the best first name for their son...0 -
Haha. From the Guardian liveblog:
"Conservative MP Philip Lee had been considered a possible Tory defector when he didn’t answer calls from reporters - only for it to transpire that he had been at the cinema with his wife. Now Jess Elgot reports that he has met with the Prime Minister:
"Lee, the chair of the pro-referendum Right To Vote campaign, met the prime minister in Downing Street on Thursday morning. Lee, who resigned as a justice minister over the party’s Brexit policy, and had been one of the MPs viewed as most likely to join the new Independent Group.
"Lee said he had decided not to quit but suggested his future movements would be governed by the response of the many ministers who have threatened to rebel next week to back an amendment to extend Article 50 to avoid no deal."
It would have been a bit wiser to have met with the pro-European MPs before three of them defected, rather than just fobbing them off with a "you can see a junior minister" letter, don't you think Theresa?0 -
One poll, taken on the day of the Labour defections? Polls are even more worthless than usual right now, until some dust starts to settle.TheAncientMariner said:
Yes - but the opinion polls are 38.26.14.7 - which gives the tories a 1983ish result.IanB2 said:
And that model assumes TIG and the LDs both fight every seatAndy_Cooke said:
Or if you separate out the Tiggers and Lib Dems and use the Electoral Calculus "Labour Split" option for the Tiggers:OblitusSumMe said:
Using Electoral Calculus with:Sean_F said:
In broad terms, I think 20-25% of the voters very much like what Corbyn is offering. Some of them are to be found in parties like the Greens or SNP. Conversely, about one third are right wingers who support Brexit. About 5% support UKIP, and 28% support the Conservatives.Tissue_Price said:
Some of us said this would happen from the start. Control of the party is the most important thing to the hard left, not winning a GE too soon. The assumption is that a crisis, or just the natural pendulum of worn-out-governments, combined with FPTP, will eventually deliver power to a purist party.Cyclefree said:In response to this which @edmundintokyo wrote on a previous thread:
“t either way. It's like a supercharged version of the TB-GB stupids.”
I think this is to misunderstand the Corbyn project.
Once
From Corbyn’s perspective driving out the moderates, the Blairites, Jews etc is not breaking the party but making it more in line with his views and more suitable to achieve his aims.
So, as a Conservative, I wish the TIG well in replacing the rotten and institutionally racist Labour Party.
That leaves just over 40% who would potentially be receptive to the new group, although you should probably knock off a few percent to cover Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, Greens and Northern Irish.
Realistically, that probably gives a ceiling of about one third who would be willing to vote for TIG and Lib Dems combined.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG/LD 33%
UKIP/Brexit Party 7%
All other parties unchanged results in:
Con 275 MPs
Lab 225 MPs
TIG/LD 80 MPs
SNP 46 MPs
That really would be a mess.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG 20%
LD 13%
UKIP/BREXIT 7%
Others unchanged...
you get:
Con 290
Lab 153
TIG 104
LD 30
SNP 50
That would put TIG+LDs perilously close to overtaking RumpLab
Especially as we'd expect a coupon election between them, not fighting each other. Add 5-10 to TIG and 1-4 to LDs; take 1-4 from Con and 5-10 from Lab.0 -
Good question. I suspect retailers like the fact that most folks get an effective windfall in the late winter, and tend to spend it?Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used for people on regular employee payroll.rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the exonomy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.0 -
It apparently won't work nationwide without replacing the national gridSandyRentool said:
Air source heat pumps. More efficient than a basic electric heating element.Philip_Thompson said:Just seen someone on Sky News say by 2025 new homes shouldn't be on the gas grid.
I though gas boiled central heating was more efficient. Are we supposed to switch to electrical heating? Electric heating sucks in my experience.
Ground source heat pumps are more efficient, but ££££££ to install.
The gas network has 200 GW of capacity and it's this gas usage that ideally needs to end before 2050
The elec network has 8 GW spare capacity.
Huge problem whichever way you do it.
The best bet is probably electric heat pumps in the back of beyond - which shouldn't need new cables, as a lot of folk are on storage heaters and their demand would be reduced - and something like this in towns and cities
http://solarheateurope.eu/about-solar-heat/solar-district-heating/
http://www.estif.org/st_energy/technology/district_heating/0 -
IIRC he was, sadly, a fairly mainstream liberal over all, but crazy.Theuniondivvie said:
Yep, but I'm kind of struggling with the concept of that shooter as a 'liberal'. Of course I realise that the term in some circles is synonymous with Black Hand Anarchism and ISIS.rpjs said:Theuniondivvie said:
16 minutes for the whataboutery hammer, the PB reactionaries are slowing up.TheAncientMariner said:
A narrow escape - of course Republican senators would never be attacked by liberals - would they?Theuniondivvie said:If only they'd had the wall to prevent this kind of terrorist.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1098563249493155846
What attacks on Republican senators by 'liberals' were you thinking of?
Probably thinking of that guy that shot up a Republican congressional baseball team practice session a couple of years ago.0 -
A bit of a Gordon-Brown-esque giving people back their own money and hoping they are thankful for it perhaps?_Anazina_ said:
Good question. I suspect retailers like the fact that most folks get an effective windfall in the late winter, and tend to spend it?Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used for people on regular employee payroll.rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the exonomy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.0 -
I think we also have a lot fewer exceptions and rebates than in America.rpjs said:
No, the states that have income tax tend to follow the federal rules and rates, pro-rated down. At least NYS does. I have no idea why HMRC can get it usually spot on with PAYE and the IRS can’t. It is a source of much frustration to me. I have read though that British PAYE is uniquely accurate in the world but requires the tax authorities to have more access to taxpayers’ financial affairs than most countries would be happy with. I have no idea if that’s actually true.TheWhiteRabbit said:
These are Federal returns, and I think PAYE systems (such that they are) are don on a state level. It might even be a states' rights issue, not sure.Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used ?rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the exonomy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.0 -
Well, if you *know* they're going to defect, there's a case for not seeing them. Otherwise they can use the meeting as a propaganda coup - "we went to see her, she was unreasonable, so we've left". Presumably the same applies to why Corbyn refused to take an intervention from Angela Smith the other week.El_Capitano said:It would have been a bit wiser to have met with the pro-European MPs before three of them defected, rather than just fobbing them off with a "you can see a junior minister" letter, don't you think Theresa?
0 -
Is that true for the average person on $20k per year?Philip_Thompson said:
I think we also have a lot fewer exceptions and rebates than in America.rpjs said:
No, the states that have income tax tend to follow the federal rules and rates, pro-rated down. At least NYS does. I have no idea why HMRC can get it usually spot on with PAYE and the IRS can’t. It is a source of much frustration to me. I have read though that British PAYE is uniquely accurate in the world but requires the tax authorities to have more access to taxpayers’ financial affairs than most countries would be happy with. I have no idea if that’s actually true.TheWhiteRabbit said:
These are Federal returns, and I think PAYE systems (such that they are) are don on a state level. It might even be a states' rights issue, not sure.Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used ?rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the exonomy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.
Or are rebates most applicable to those self-assessing anyway, as here?0 -
There’s also the tax preparation industry which has effectively blocked the IRS from offerng a simple online tax return system by lobbying against it for decades. Hiring a tax preparer or paying for tax software like TurboTax (which cost us about $150 this year as we’d sold stock) is a necessity here. Only the insane or masochistic would attempt to fill out the necessary forms by hand._Anazina_ said:
Good question. I suspect retailers like the fact that most folks get an effective windfall in the late winter, and tend to spend it?Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used for people on regular employee payroll.rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the exonomy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.0 -
He was a Sanders supporter in fact, and he really hated Republicans.rpjs said:
IIRC he was, sadly, a fairly mainstream liberal over all, but crazy.Theuniondivvie said:
Yep, but I'm kind of struggling with the concept of that shooter as a 'liberal'. Of course I realise that the term in some circles is synonymous with Black Hand Anarchism and ISIS.rpjs said:Theuniondivvie said:
16 minutes for the whataboutery hammer, the PB reactionaries are slowing up.TheAncientMariner said:
A narrow escape - of course Republican senators would never be attacked by liberals - would they?Theuniondivvie said:If only they'd had the wall to prevent this kind of terrorist.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1098563249493155846
What attacks on Republican senators by 'liberals' were you thinking of?
Probably thinking of that guy that shot up a Republican congressional baseball team practice session a couple of years ago.0 -
My first year in the US I got a tax rebate.rpjs said:As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.
The second year I got a big payrise without realising they didn't adjust the withholding, I spent my anticipated "rebate", then got a bill from the IRS.
Not happy0 -
Sounds like excuses to me. You are right that HMRC's record is excellent in comparison to its international peers, but, for most people, the only income they have is their salary –anyone with even a half-decent grasp of maths really ought to be able to forecast it. As you say, HMRC usually get it spot on. Not always, particularly when employees have changed jobs during the later part of the tax year, but even then they have a pretty decent record.rpjs said:
No, the states that have income tax tend to follow the federal rules and rates, pro-rated down. At least NYS does. I have no idea why HMRC can get it usually spot on with PAYE and the IRS can’t. It is a source of much frustration to me. I have read though that British PAYE is uniquely accurate in the world but requires the tax authorities to have more access to taxpayers’ financial affairs than most countries would be happy with. I have no idea if that’s actually true.TheWhiteRabbit said:
These are Federal returns, and I think PAYE systems (such that they are) are don on a state level. It might even be a states' rights issue, not sure.Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used ?rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the exonomy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.0 -
They want to be the left wing Labour party that gets into government. I suspect they may prefer a left wing party out of government to a right wing one in government.dixiedean said:
I cannot see any other possible route for Corbyn now. If he doesn't he'll be left with the rump of a Party.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
While he and his Morning Star advisers would be content with Brexit, it is important to note that many of his allies at the top of the leadership aren't so sanguine.0 -
They certainly do in other countries.Pulpstar said:
What's more, these systems will only work if homes are insulated to the highest standards so they need little heating.GIN1138 said:
If ever there was a report for the "long grass" it's this one...Philip_Thompson said:Just seen someone on Sky News say by 2025 new homes shouldn't be on the gas grid.
I though gas boiled central heating was more efficient. Are we supposed to switch to electrical heating? Electric heating sucks in my experience.
Bet these new "well insulated" homes don't exceed a thousand square feet either.0 -
Ha! Yes, I suppose so. It's a stupid system, really, but it perhaps is just ineptitude on the part of the IRS rather than any deliberate short-term cash injection.TheWhiteRabbit said:
A bit of a Gordon-Brown-esque giving people back their own money and hoping they are thankful for it perhaps?_Anazina_ said:
Good question. I suspect retailers like the fact that most folks get an effective windfall in the late winter, and tend to spend it?Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used for people on regular employee payroll.rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the exonomy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.0 -
"I’ve never really seen why Corbyn should be favourite here." Really Mike?0
-
I think so.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is that true for the average person on $20k per year?Philip_Thompson said:
I think we also have a lot fewer exceptions and rebates than in America.rpjs said:
No, the states that have income tax tend to follow the federal rules and rates, pro-rated down. At least NYS does. I have no idea why HMRC can get it usually spot on with PAYE and the IRS can’t. It is a source of much frustration to me. I have read though that British PAYE is uniquely accurate in the world but requires the tax authorities to have more access to taxpayers’ financial affairs than most countries would be happy with. I have no idea if that’s actually true.TheWhiteRabbit said:
These are Federal returns, and I think PAYE systems (such that they are) are don on a state level. It might even be a states' rights issue, not sure.Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used ?rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the exonomy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.
Or are rebates most applicable to those self-assessing anyway, as here?
I thought in America you can get rebates for dependents (ie children) and if you have a mortgage.
In the UK child benefit (and later child tax credits) is not done via PAYE.0 -
Tissue_Price said:
Well, if you *know* they're going to defect, there's a case for not seeing them. Otherwise they can use the meeting as a propaganda coup - "we went to see her, she was unreasonable, so we've left". Presumably the same applies to why Corbyn refused to take an intervention from Angela Smith the other week.El_Capitano said:It would have been a bit wiser to have met with the pro-European MPs before three of them defected, rather than just fobbing them off with a "you can see a junior minister" letter, don't you think Theresa?
I very much doubt May is that clever, to be perfectly honest. It's more likely to be more simple cackhandedness on her part.0 -
Good afternoon, comrade scabs.
I am delighted to write of the excellent work the Supreme Leader's intelligence corps has done, driving out traitors from the People's Party, and even causing splits in the detested capitalist pigdog cabal!
Soon only those pure of heart and loyal in deed will be privileged enough to bask in the limitless benevolence of the Supreme Leader!
Removing wreckers makes us stronger!
[Has anyone else defected?].0 -
What a ludicrously expensive and inefficient system.rpjs said:
There’s also the tax preparation industry which has effectively blocked the IRS from offerng a simple online tax return system by lobbying against it for decades. Hiring a tax preparer or paying for tax software like TurboTax (which cost us about $150 this year as we’d sold stock) is a necessity here. Only the insane or masochistic would attempt to fill out the necessary forms by hand._Anazina_ said:
Good question. I suspect retailers like the fact that most folks get an effective windfall in the late winter, and tend to spend it?Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used for people on regular employee payroll.rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the exonomy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.
Clearly the same dolts who designed their healthcare system are behind their PAYE set up.0 -
-
https://twitter.com/Muqadaam/status/1098259765690535941Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, comrade scabs.
I am delighted to write of the excellent work the Supreme Leader's intelligence corps has done, driving out traitors from the People's Party, and even causing splits in the detested capitalist pigdog cabal!
Soon only those pure of heart and loyal in deed will be privileged enough to bask in the limitless benevolence of the Supreme Leader!
Removing wreckers makes us stronger!
[Has anyone else defected?].0 -
That's just stupid. How anyone is expected to manage their budgets with so much variance and opacity in the system is beyond me.Scott_P said:
My first year in the US I got a tax rebate.rpjs said:As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.
The second year I got a big payrise without realising they didn't adjust the withholding, I spent my anticipated "rebate", then got a bill from the IRS.
Not happy0 -
All I see is that we have a problem with a lot of old houses which cannot be made energy efficient and we had better get building...rural_voter said:
It apparently won't work nationwide without replacing the national gridSandyRentool said:
Air source heat pumps. More efficient than a basic electric heating element.Philip_Thompson said:Just seen someone on Sky News say by 2025 new homes shouldn't be on the gas grid.
I though gas boiled central heating was more efficient. Are we supposed to switch to electrical heating? Electric heating sucks in my experience.
Ground source heat pumps are more efficient, but ££££££ to install.
The gas network has 200 GW of capacity and it's this gas usage that ideally needs to end before 2050
The elec network has 8 GW spare capacity.
Huge problem whichever way you do it.
The best bet is probably electric heat pumps in the back of beyond - which shouldn't need new cables, as a lot of folk are on storage heaters and their demand would be reduced - and something like this in towns and cities
http://solarheateurope.eu/about-solar-heat/solar-district-heating/
http://www.estif.org/st_energy/technology/district_heating/0 -
Actually the odd man out internationally is the UK - we really do have a very good tax administration system. Of course that doesn't fit into the preferred narrative that our politicians and civil servants are a bunch of malevolent half-wits, so it's rarely mentioned._Anazina_ said:
What a ludicrously expensive and inefficient system.
Clearly the same dolts who designed their healthcare system are behind their PAYE set up.0 -
I'd rather the Tories commit suicide than they murder the rest of us.HYUFD said:
Depends what type of Leave the Tories advocate but it would be suicide for the Tories to revoke BrexitPolruan said:
That’s a fair point actually. I’m not sure I agree but the logic does break down completely if you posit credible splits to both the traditional left and right blocks. Only works if both split though, for example if LabLibTig can be tarred with blocking Brexit then the Tories stay together as the leave party and can continue winning small majorities by blaming foreigners for everything.HYUFD said:
No, the best result for the Tories is for Labour to back Brexit and rule out EUref2 enabling a surge of Labour Remainers to TIG and the LDs and the best result for Labour is for the to revoke Brexit enabling a surge of Tory Leavers to Farage's new Brexit Party and UKIPPolruan said:
I’m still not convinced it’s possible for Labour to force a 2nd referendum without massive electoral damage. The position hasn’t changed: the best result for the Tories is for Labour to be seen to stop Brexit and the best result for Labour is the Tories to proceed with Brexit whilst Labour are seen to try and stop it.dixiedean said:
I cannot see any other possible route for Corbyn now. If he doesn't he'll be left with the rump of a Party.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
While he and his Morning Star advisers would be content with Brexit, it is important to note that many of his allies at the top of the leadership aren't so sanguine.0 -
Manchester City say one of their fans is in "a critical condition in hospital" after an alleged assault following their Champions League win over Schalke in Germany on Wednesday.0
-
Mr. P, the loyal and true/hated traitor Phillips was always going to show her gritty determination to fight for this nation/trample on decency and honour by splitting from the party to whom she owes everything. We support her loyalty/shall not miss her.0
-
I think that's right. If they were to get in and NOT implement any socialist policies, well what's the point.FF43 said:They want to be the left wing Labour party that gets into government. I suspect they may prefer a left wing party out of government to a right wing one in government.
That said, I do get the impression that John McDonnell is prepared to compromise quite a lot in order to get to Number 11.0 -
Cost effective if designed into new builds because you are digging the ground anyway.SandyRentool said:
Air source heat pumps. More efficient than a basic electric heating element.Philip_Thompson said:Just seen someone on Sky News say by 2025 new homes shouldn't be on the gas grid.
I though gas boiled central heating was more efficient. Are we supposed to switch to electrical heating? Electric heating sucks in my experience.
Ground source heat pumps are more efficient, but ££££££ to install.
I guess the argument is that electricity will largely come from renewables and so fewer carbon emissions0 -
even our new houses are not much good.eek said:
All I see is that we have a problem with a lot of old houses which cannot be made energy efficient and we had better get building...rural_voter said:
It apparently won't work nationwide without replacing the national gridSandyRentool said:
Air source heat pumps. More efficient than a basic electric heating element.Philip_Thompson said:Just seen someone on Sky News say by 2025 new homes shouldn't be on the gas grid.
I though gas boiled central heating was more efficient. Are we supposed to switch to electrical heating? Electric heating sucks in my experience.
Ground source heat pumps are more efficient, but ££££££ to install.
The gas network has 200 GW of capacity and it's this gas usage that ideally needs to end before 2050
The elec network has 8 GW spare capacity.
Huge problem whichever way you do it.
The best bet is probably electric heat pumps in the back of beyond - which shouldn't need new cables, as a lot of folk are on storage heaters and their demand would be reduced - and something like this in towns and cities
http://solarheateurope.eu/about-solar-heat/solar-district-heating/
http://www.estif.org/st_energy/technology/district_heating/0 -
The American personal tax code is crazy complex.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is that true for the average person on $20k per year?Philip_Thompson said:
I think we also have a lot fewer exceptions and rebates than in America.rpjs said:
No, the states that have income tax tend to follow the federal rules and rates, pro-rated down. At least NYS does. I have no idea why HMRC can get it usually spot on with PAYE and the IRS can’t. It is a source of much frustration to me. I have read though that British PAYE is uniquely accurate in the world but requires the tax authorities to have more access to taxpayers’ financial affairs than most countries would be happy with. I have no idea if that’s actually true.TheWhiteRabbit said:
These are Federal returns, and I think PAYE systems (such that they are) are don on a state level. It might even be a states' rights issue, not sure.Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used ?rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the exonomy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.
Or are rebates most applicable to those self-assessing anyway, as here?0 -
It is human nature.Richard_Nabavi said:
Actually the odd man out internationally is the UK - we really do have a very good tax administration system. Of course that doesn't fit into the preferred narrative that our politicians and civil servants are a bunch of malevolent half-wits, so it's rarely mentioned._Anazina_ said:
What a ludicrously expensive and inefficient system.
Clearly the same dolts who designed their healthcare system are behind their PAYE set up.
People take for granted that which is good or works and bemoan that which isn't or doesn't.0 -
A lot of basic administration works very well in this country (taxation, land registration, the courts, obtaining death certificates and probates etc). It's something that we take entirely for granted.Richard_Nabavi said:
Actually the odd man out internationally is the UK - we really do have a very good tax administration system. Of course that doesn't fit into the preferred narrative that our politicians and civil servants are a bunch of malevolent half-wits, so it's rarely mentioned._Anazina_ said:
What a ludicrously expensive and inefficient system.
Clearly the same dolts who designed their healthcare system are behind their PAYE set up.0 -
That's fair comment. I have spoken in the past that I had professional skin in this game, in a former role (don't worry, I was not a civil servant or politician!). HMRC is vastly underrated by the public – it really is an extremely competent department. And we have had some good tax ministers in the past – David Gauke being by far the best minister from a technical perspective (of either party) that I have met in recent times.Richard_Nabavi said:
Actually the odd man out internationally is the UK - we really do have a very good tax administration system. Of course that doesn't fit into the preferred narrative that our politicians and civil servants are a bunch of malevolent half-wits, so it's rarely mentioned._Anazina_ said:
What a ludicrously expensive and inefficient system.
Clearly the same dolts who designed their healthcare system are behind their PAYE set up.0 -
The public doesn't know enough to make the decision. I mean, even the Home Secretary doesn't know enough to make the decision.Endillion said:
I don't know where this idea came from that it is the job of our political leaders actively to refuse to do things that the overwhelming majority of the public want. But I don't like it one bit.kinabalu said:
A forlorn hope, I would wager. Begum has become one of those topics. Last one I recall was Worboys, the 'black cab rapist'. Nobody wanted him out. Nobody wants her home.OldKingCole said:Out to lunch now folk. Part of our party are Kippers, so I hope we don't talk about either politics or that ISIS girl.
That is what happens if you do lots of rapes or run off to join ISIS. The public take umbrage.
Me too, I'm part of the public, nothing special about me.
Trouble is, there would appear to be nothing special about the Home Secretary either, and that is not so great.0 -
Remainers (like me) need to account for this boon, as it seems to cut against the arguments we are making and have been making for some time.Sandpit said:0 -
The rest of us as a whole voted for Brexit remember?Dadge said:
I'd rather the Tories commit suicide than they murder the rest of us.HYUFD said:
Depends what type of Leave the Tories advocate but it would be suicide for the Tories to revoke BrexitPolruan said:
That’s a fair point actually. I’m not sure I agree but the logic does break down completely if you posit credible splits to both the traditional left and right blocks. Only works if both split though, for example if LabLibTig can be tarred with blocking Brexit then the Tories stay together as the leave party and can continue winning small majorities by blaming foreigners for everything.HYUFD said:
No, the best result for the Tories is for Labour to back Brexit and rule out EUref2 enabling a surge of Labour Remainers to TIG and the LDs and the best result for Labour is for the to revoke Brexit enabling a surge of Tory Leavers to Farage's new Brexit Party and UKIPPolruan said:
I’m still not convinced it’s possible for Labour to force a 2nd referendum without massive electoral damage. The position hasn’t changed: the best result for the Tories is for Labour to be seen to stop Brexit and the best result for Labour is the Tories to proceed with Brexit whilst Labour are seen to try and stop it.dixiedean said:
I cannot see any other possible route for Corbyn now. If he doesn't he'll be left with the rump of a Party.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
While he and his Morning Star advisers would be content with Brexit, it is important to note that many of his allies at the top of the leadership aren't so sanguine.
The Tories are just implementing the will of the people.0 -
The tax break system is insanely complicated. For a start you can chose to itemize your deductions or simply take a “standard” deduction of about $12k per person. The new cap of $10,000 on how much you can deduct for state and local taxes paid this year meant that for the first time we were better off taking the standard deductions than itemizing. It still reduced the amount we could deduct from our taxable income by about $6k compared to previous years.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is that true for the average person on $20k per year?Philip_Thompson said:
I think we also have a lot fewer exceptions and rebates than in America.rpjs said:
No, the states that have income tax tend to follow the federal rules and rates, pro-rated down. At least NYS does. I have no idea why HMRC can get it usually spot on with PAYE and the IRS can’t. It is a source of much frustration to me. I have read though that British PAYE is uniquely accurate in the world but requires the tax authorities to have more access to taxpayers’ financial affairs than most countries would be happy with. I have no idea if that’s actually true.TheWhiteRabbit said:
These are Federal returns, and I think PAYE systems (such that they are) are don on a state level. It might even be a states' rights issue, not sure.Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used ?rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
Or are rebates most applicable to those self-assessing anyway, as here?
0 -
Isn't the consequence of austerity policy + a growing economy? We have yet to see what effect leaving the EU will have.Gardenwalker said:
Remainers (like me) need to account for this boon, as it seems to cut against the arguments we are making and have been making for some time.Sandpit said:0 -
incidentally, that graph shows beautifully why chasing the monthly stats, as some in opposition were prone to do in 2010 - 2015, is such a futile gesture.Sandpit said:
Ed? yeah, you. I mean you.0 -
"Brexit for people who hate Brexit"
As the two main parties shake and splutter, Remainers are in raptures. Well, of course they are. This, after all, is their very own version of Brexit.
That’s the psychology of it. Whether they’re ex-Labour or ex-Tory, these Remain MPs have suddenly grasped the gleeful, defiant joy of leaving. Of sticking up two fingers at a vast, arrogant monolith that in their eyes treated them with contempt, and ignored their concerns. After years of pent-up resentment, they’ve decided to have done with it, and just walk out. And now, like Leavers in summer 2016, they’re riding the high, the righteous rush of rebellion. They’ve chosen to be free. Sovereign. Independent.
Deep down, no doubt, they know it’s a gamble. That in the short term, what they’ve done will cause disruption, even chaos, and very possibly cost them their jobs. But they don’t care. They’re ignoring Project Fear, and leaving anyway – partly for the sheer angry thrill of it, and partly because they’ve convinced themselves that, in the longer term, the pain will be worth it.
That’s “The Independent Group”. Brexit for people who hate Brexit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/20/remainers-gleeful-version-brexit/0 -
Tbf civil servants are usually pretty far behind the pols on the malevolent half-wit scale.Richard_Nabavi said:
Actually the odd man out internationally is the UK - we really do have a very good tax administration system. Of course that doesn't fit into the preferred narrative that our politicians and civil servants are a bunch of malevolent half-wits, so it's rarely mentioned._Anazina_ said:
What a ludicrously expensive and inefficient system.
Clearly the same dolts who designed their healthcare system are behind their PAYE set up.0 -
There seems to be a surprisingly regular pattern to this graph - lots of letter Ws. Anyone know why this should be the case?Sandpit said:0 -
-
People always rant about "government IT" being crap, by definition, but bits at least of HMRC, the DVLA, and the Passport Office have very effective online services.Richard_Nabavi said:Actually the odd man out internationally is the UK - we really do have a very good tax administration system. Of course that doesn't fit into the preferred narrative that our politicians and civil servants are a bunch of malevolent half-wits, so it's rarely mentioned.
0 -
Difficult to see many Tories (the brexit party) rushing over to TIG, compared to Labour (although you are right re opinion polls, they are the only game in town.) And what happens if there is no election until 2022 and the WA/ everything is then history? Are we basically going to have "The antisemite party" and "The anti antisemite party"?IanB2 said:
One poll, taken on the day of the Labour defections? Polls are even more worthless than usual right now, until some dust starts to settle.TheAncientMariner said:
Yes - but the opinion polls are 38.26.14.7 - which gives the tories a 1983ish result.IanB2 said:
And that model assumes TIG and the LDs both fight every seatAndy_Cooke said:
Or if you separate out the Tiggers and Lib Dems and use the Electoral Calculus "Labour Split" option for the Tiggers:OblitusSumMe said:
Using Electoral Calculus with:Sean_F said:
That leaves just over 40% who would potentially be receptive to the new group, although you should probably knock off a few percent to cover Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, Greens and Northern Irish.Tissue_Price said:
Some of us said this would happen from the start. Control of the party is the most important thing to the hard left, not winning a GE too soon. The assumption is that a crisis, or just the natural pendulum of worn-out-governments, combined with FPTP, will eventually deliver power to a purist party.Cyclefree said:In response to this which @edmundintokyo wrote on a previous thread:
“t either way. It's like a supercharged version of the TB-GB stupids.”
I think this is to misunderstand the Corbyn project.
Once
From Corbyn’s perspective driving out the moderates, the Blairites, Jews etc is not breaking the party but making it more in line with his views and more suitable to achieve his aims.
So, as a Conservative, I wish the TIG well in replacing the rotten and institutionally racist Labour Party.
Realistically, that probably gives a ceiling of about one third who would be willing to vote for TIG and Lib Dems combined.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG/LD 33%
UKIP/Brexit Party 7%
All other parties unchanged results in:
Con 275 MPs
Lab 225 MPs
TIG/LD 80 MPs
SNP 46 MPs
That really would be a mess.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG 20%
LD 13%
UKIP/BREXIT 7%
Others unchanged...
you get:
Con 290
Lab 153
TIG 104
LD 30
SNP 50
That would put TIG+LDs perilously close to overtaking RumpLab
Especially as we'd expect a coupon election between them, not fighting each other. Add 5-10 to TIG and 1-4 to LDs; take 1-4 from Con and 5-10 from Lab.0 -
In my experience DVLA and Passport are very good (as long are you actually follow their rules for things like the photo). You hear people ranting about them and normally if you ask it is because they sent in their kids school photo and it got rejected as not fitting the specs, with them ranting but but you can see my kid clearly, I don't understand the problem.glw said:
People always rant about "government IT" being crap, by definition, but bits at least of HMRC, the DVLA, and the Passport Office have very effective online services.Richard_Nabavi said:Actually the odd man out internationally is the UK - we really do have a very good tax administration system. Of course that doesn't fit into the preferred narrative that our politicians and civil servants are a bunch of malevolent half-wits, so it's rarely mentioned.
0 -
You really do have to feel some sympathy for Theresa May. Herding cats is hard enough at the best of times, but she has to herd enough of them through the right lobby against an impossibly tight deadline.0
-
This cat would have been herded happily.Richard_Nabavi said:You really do have to feel some sympathy for Theresa May. Herding cats is hard enough at the best of times, but she has to herd enough of them through the right lobby against an impossibly tight deadline.
0 -
Also Corporation Tax payments are quarterly, I think. Most government expenditure is relatively constant across the year.TheWhiteRabbit said:0 -
The Code of Conduct for Members of Parliament states at Part III(6) that "Members have a general duty to act in the interests of the nation as a whole; and a special duty to their constituents.". The "nation as a whole" is some 66 million people, not 17.4 million, and while MP's arguably have a duty to implement the 2016 referendum, they certainly have a duty to do so in a manner that is in the interests of the whole country and their constituents. In pushing the country over a No-Deal cliff they are not acting in anyone's interests. If the general well-being of the country as a whole is damaged by the way they implement Brexit then the legislature is failing in its duty to the whole people, leavers, remainers, abstainers, children, prisoners and everyone else.Philip_Thompson said:
The rest of us as a whole voted for Brexit remember?Dadge said:
I'd rather the Tories commit suicide than they murder the rest of us.HYUFD said:
Depends what type of Leave the Tories advocate but it would be suicide for the Tories to revoke BrexitPolruan said:
That’s a fair point actually. I’m not sure I agree but the logic does break down completely if you posit credible splits to both the traditional left and right blocks. Only works if both split though, for example if LabLibTig can be tarred with blocking Brexit then the Tories stay together as the leave party and can continue winning small majorities by blaming foreigners for everything.HYUFD said:
No, the best result for the Tories is for Labour to back Brexit and rule out EUref2 enabling a surge of Labour Remainers to TIG and the LDs and the best result for Labour is for the to revoke Brexit enabling a surge of Tory Leavers to Farage's new Brexit Party and UKIPPolruan said:
I’m still not convinced it’s possible for Labour to force a 2nd referendum without massive electoral damage. The position hasn’t changed: the best result for the Tories is for Labour to be seen to stop Brexit and the best result for Labour is the Tories to proceed with Brexit whilst Labour are seen to try and stop it.dixiedean said:
I cannot see any other possible route for Corbyn now. If he doesn't he'll be left with the rump of a Party.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
While he and his Morning Star advisers would be content with Brexit, it is important to note that many of his allies at the top of the leadership aren't so sanguine.
The Tories are just implementing the will of the people.
0 -
No, I don't have sympathy for her. The impossibly tight deadline is largely of her own creation, as is most of the alienation of the cats.Richard_Nabavi said:You really do have to feel some sympathy for Theresa May. Herding cats is hard enough at the best of times, but she has to herd enough of them through the right lobby against an impossibly tight deadline.
0 -
I can understand if not approve of politicians doing it, but I wish the press would consistently point out that month to month stats are horribly misleading.BannedInParis said:
incidentally, that graph shows beautifully why chasing the monthly stats, as some in opposition were prone to do in 2010 - 2015, is such a futile gesture.Sandpit said:
Ed? yeah, you. I mean you.0 -
+1DougSeal said:
The Code of Conduct for Members of Parliament states at Part III(6) that "Members have a general duty to act in the interests of the nation as a whole; and a special duty to their constituents.". The "nation as a whole" is some 66 million people, not 17.4 million, and while MP's arguably have a duty to implement the 2016 referendum, they certainly have a duty to do so in a manner that is in the interests of the whole country and their constituents. In pushing the country over a No-Deal cliff they are not acting in anyone's interests. If the general well-being of the country as a whole is damaged by the way they implement Brexit then the legislature is failing in its duty to the whole people, leavers, remainers, abstainers, children, prisoners and everyone else.Philip_Thompson said:
The rest of us as a whole voted for Brexit remember?Dadge said:
I'd rather the Tories commit suicide than they murder the rest of us.HYUFD said:
Depends what type of Leave the Tories advocate but it would be suicide for the Tories to revoke BrexitPolruan said:
That’s a fair point actually. I’m not sure I agree but the logic does break down completely if you posit credible splits to both the traditional left and right blocks. Only works if both split though, for example if LabLibTig can be tarred with blocking Brexit then the Tories stay together as the leave party and can continue winning small majorities by blaming foreigners for everything.HYUFD said:
No, the best result for the Tories is for Labour to back Brexit and rule out EUref2 enabling a surge of Labour Remainers to TIG and the LDs and the best result for Labour is for the to revoke Brexit enabling a surge of Tory Leavers to Farage's new Brexit Party and UKIPPolruan said:
I’m still not convinced it’s possible for Labour to force a 2nd referendum without massive electoral damage. The position hasn’t changed: the best result for the Tories is for Labour to be seen to stop Brexit and the best result for Labour is the Tories to proceed with Brexit whilst Labour are seen to try and stop it.dixiedean said:
I cannot see any other possible route for Corbyn now. If he doesn't he'll be left with the rump of a Party.
While he and his Morning Star advisers would be content with Brexit, it is important to note that many of his allies at the top of the leadership aren't so sanguine.
The Tories are just implementing the will of the people.0 -
The EU will be erecting a statue of Farage at some point...
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/10985872857366405130 -
IANAE but I believe the IRS includes a lot in deductions etc that are complicated in the UK but dealt with elsewhere like with VAT.rpjs said:
The tax break system is insanely complicated. For a start you can chose to itemize your deductions or simply take a “standard” deduction of about $12k per person. The new cap of $10,000 on how much you can deduct for state and local taxes paid this year meant that for the first time we were better off taking the standard deductions than itemizing. It still reduced the amount we could deduct from our taxable income by about $6k compared to previous years.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is that true for the average person on $20k per year?Philip_Thompson said:
I think we also have a lot fewer exceptions and rebates than in America.rpjs said:
No, the states that have income tax tend to follow the federal rules and rates, pro-rated down. At least NYS does. I have no idea why HMRC can get it usually spot on with PAYE and the IRS can’t. It is a source of much frustration to me. I have read though that British PAYE is uniquely accurate in the world but requires the tax authorities to have more access to taxpayers’ financial affairs than most countries would be happy with. I have no idea if that’s actually true.TheWhiteRabbit said:
These are Federal returns, and I think PAYE systems (such that they are) are don on a state level. It might even be a states' rights issue, not sure.Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used ?rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
Or are rebates most applicable to those self-assessing anyway, as here?
Thus in the UK a lot of expenses are zero rated if they're essentials while for self employed and business expenses refunds are claimed via the VAT system. In the US I believe a lot of that is dealt with via deductions instead.0 -
Some truth in that, but the deadline isn't entirely her fault. She after all had a deal agreed with the EU and ready to ratify back in November.AlastairMeeks said:
No, I don't have sympathy for her. The impossibly tight deadline is largely of her own creation, as is most of the alienation of the cats.Richard_Nabavi said:You really do have to feel some sympathy for Theresa May. Herding cats is hard enough at the best of times, but she has to herd enough of them through the right lobby against an impossibly tight deadline.
0 -
Tu rigoles.Richard_Nabavi said:You really do have to feel some sympathy for Theresa May. Herding cats is hard enough at the best of times, but she has to herd enough of them through the right lobby against an impossibly tight deadline.
0 -
They're not exactly zero-rated, but yes, most businesses get the VAT back as part of their VAT return whereas (I guess) small traders in the US only get their sales tax back(?) via return?Philip_Thompson said:
IANAE but I believe the IRS includes a lot in deductions etc that are complicated in the UK but dealt with elsewhere like with VAT.rpjs said:
The tax break system is insanely complicated. For a start you can chose to itemize your deductions or simply take a “standard” deduction of about $12k per person. The new cap of $10,000 on how much you can deduct for state and local taxes paid this year meant that for the first time we were better off taking the standard deductions than itemizing. It still reduced the amount we could deduct from our taxable income by about $6k compared to previous years.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is that true for the average person on $20k per year?Philip_Thompson said:
I think we also have a lot fewer exceptions and rebates than in America.rpjs said:
No, the states that have income tax tend to follow the federal rules and rates, pro-rated down. At least NYS does. I have no idea why HMRC can get it usually spot on with PAYE and the IRS can’t. It is a source of much frustration to me. I have read though that British PAYE is uniquely accurate in the world but requires the tax authorities to have more access to taxpayers’ financial affairs than most countries would be happy with. I have no idea if that’s actually true.TheWhiteRabbit said:
These are Federal returns, and I think PAYE systems (such that they are) are don on a state level. It might even be a states' rights issue, not sure.Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used ?rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
Or are rebates most applicable to those self-assessing anyway, as here?
Thus in the UK a lot of expenses are zero rated if they're essentials while for self employed and business expenses refunds are claimed via the VAT system. In the US I believe a lot of that is dealt with via deductions instead.0 -
She wasted a whole month after that.Richard_Nabavi said:
Some truth in that, but the deadline isn't entirely her fault. She after all had a deal agreed with the EU and ready to ratify back in November.AlastairMeeks said:
No, I don't have sympathy for her. The impossibly tight deadline is largely of her own creation, as is most of the alienation of the cats.Richard_Nabavi said:You really do have to feel some sympathy for Theresa May. Herding cats is hard enough at the best of times, but she has to herd enough of them through the right lobby against an impossibly tight deadline.
0 -
I agree with that in general, but in the case of Brexit you make the mistake of equating forecast headline economic numbers with the interests of the nation as a whole. Gary Younge wrote what I thought was an excellent article about Brexit at the beginning of the month about why that argument was so weak.DougSeal said:The Code of Conduct for Members of Parliament states at Part III(6) that "Members have a general duty to act in the interests of the nation as a whole; and a special duty to their constituents.". The "nation as a whole" is some 66 million people, not 17.4 million, and while MP's arguably have a duty to implement the 2016 referendum, they certainly have a duty to do so in a manner that is in the interests of the whole country and their constituents. In pushing the country over a No-Deal cliff they are not acting in anyone's interests. If the general well-being of the country as a whole is damaged by the way they implement Brexit then the legislature is failing in its duty to the whole people, leavers, remainers, abstainers, children, prisoners and everyone else.
0 -
True, but there's zero sign that anything would be different if she hadn't.AlastairMeeks said:
She wasted a whole month after that.Richard_Nabavi said:
Some truth in that, but the deadline isn't entirely her fault. She after all had a deal agreed with the EU and ready to ratify back in November.AlastairMeeks said:
No, I don't have sympathy for her. The impossibly tight deadline is largely of her own creation, as is most of the alienation of the cats.Richard_Nabavi said:You really do have to feel some sympathy for Theresa May. Herding cats is hard enough at the best of times, but she has to herd enough of them through the right lobby against an impossibly tight deadline.
0 -
I don't agree with that (mainly the second bit - the public knows enough to have the right to an opinion), but it wasn't the point. People keep trying to say that the popularity of the decision is somehow proof that Javid got it wrong.Dadge said:
The public doesn't know enough to make the decision. I mean, even the Home Secretary doesn't know enough to make the decision.Endillion said:
I don't know where this idea came from that it is the job of our political leaders actively to refuse to do things that the overwhelming majority of the public want. But I don't like it one bit.kinabalu said:
A forlorn hope, I would wager. Begum has become one of those topics. Last one I recall was Worboys, the 'black cab rapist'. Nobody wanted him out. Nobody wants her home.OldKingCole said:Out to lunch now folk. Part of our party are Kippers, so I hope we don't talk about either politics or that ISIS girl.
That is what happens if you do lots of rapes or run off to join ISIS. The public take umbrage.
Me too, I'm part of the public, nothing special about me.
Trouble is, there would appear to be nothing special about the Home Secretary either, and that is not so great.0 -
Yes it's the government's fault that they didn't follow the simple instructions, or use a photo booth that actually shows them what they need to do for passport photos and lets them check the pictures before printing. Damn those incompetent civil servants!FrancisUrquhart said:In my experience DVLA and Passport are very good (as long are you actually follow their rules for things like the photo). You hear people ranting about them and normally if you ask it is because they sent in their kids school photo and it got rejected as not fitting the specs, with them ranting but but you can see my kid clearly, I don't understand the problem.
0 -
Not sure he'll be joining TIG though. Perhaps the SDP, though more likely he just sits as a regular Independent.williamglenn said:0 -
This appears to have become a bit of a thing.Endillion said:
People keep trying to say that the popularity of the decision is somehow proof that Javid got it wrong.Dadge said:
The public doesn't know enough to make the decision. I mean, even the Home Secretary doesn't know enough to make the decision.Endillion said:
I don't know where this idea came from that it is the job of our political leaders actively to refuse to do things that the overwhelming majority of the public want. But I don't like it one bit.kinabalu said:
A forlorn hope, I would wager. Begum has become one of those topics. Last one I recall was Worboys, the 'black cab rapist'. Nobody wanted him out. Nobody wants her home.OldKingCole said:Out to lunch now folk. Part of our party are Kippers, so I hope we don't talk about either politics or that ISIS girl.
That is what happens if you do lots of rapes or run off to join ISIS. The public take umbrage.
Me too, I'm part of the public, nothing special about me.
Trouble is, there would appear to be nothing special about the Home Secretary either, and that is not so great.
Can you point us to a post where anyone is actually saying that?0 -
Including, until 48 hours ago, Shamima Begum.DougSeal said:
The Code of Conduct for Members of Parliament states at Part III(6) that "Members have a general duty to act in the interests of the nation as a whole; and a special duty to their constituents.". The "nation as a whole" is some 66 million people, not 17.4 million, and while MP's arguably have a duty to implement the 2016 referendum, they certainly have a duty to do so in a manner that is in the interests of the whole country and their constituents. In pushing the country over a No-Deal cliff they are not acting in anyone's interests. If the general well-being of the country as a whole is damaged by the way they implement Brexit then the legislature is failing in its duty to the whole people, leavers, remainers, abstainers, children, prisoners and everyone else.Philip_Thompson said:
The rest of us as a whole voted for Brexit remember?Dadge said:
I'd rather the Tories commit suicide than they murder the rest of us.HYUFD said:
Depends what type of Leave the Tories advocate but it would be suicide for the Tories to revoke BrexitPolruan said:
That’s a fair point actually. I’m not sure I agree but the logic does break down completely if you posit credible splits to both the traditional left and right blocks. Only works if both split though, for example if LabLibTig can be tarred with blocking Brexit then the Tories stay together as the leave party and can continue winning small majorities by blaming foreigners for everything.HYUFD said:
No, the best result for the Tories is for Labour to back Brexit and rule out EUref2 enabling a surge of Labour Remainers to TIG and the LDs and the best result for Labour is for the to revoke Brexit enabling a surge of Tory Leavers to Farage's new Brexit Party and UKIPPolruan said:
I’m still not convinced it’s possible for Labour to force a 2nd referendum without massive electoral damage. The position hasn’t changed: the best result for the Tories is for Labour to be seen to stop Brexit and the best result for Labour is the Tories to proceed with Brexit whilst Labour are seen to try and stop it.dixiedean said:
I guine.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
The Tories are just implementing the will of the people.0 -
I think it's more a suspicion that he took the decision because he thought it would be popular.Endillion said:
I don't agree with that (mainly the second bit - the public knows enough to have the right to an opinion), but it wasn't the point. People keep trying to say that the popularity of the decision is somehow proof that Javid got it wrong.Dadge said:
The public doesn't know enough to make the decision. I mean, even the Home Secretary doesn't know enough to make the decision.Endillion said:
I don't know where this idea came from that it is the job of our political leaders actively to refuse to do things that the overwhelming majority of the public want. But I don't like it one bit.kinabalu said:
A forlorn hope, I would wager. Begum has become one of those topics. Last one I recall was Worboys, the 'black cab rapist'. Nobody wanted him out. Nobody wants her home.OldKingCole said:Out to lunch now folk. Part of our party are Kippers, so I hope we don't talk about either politics or that ISIS girl.
That is what happens if you do lots of rapes or run off to join ISIS. The public take umbrage.
Me too, I'm part of the public, nothing special about me.
Trouble is, there would appear to be nothing special about the Home Secretary either, and that is not so great.0 -
Well the key point is that this income relates to 2017-2018 and so doesn't really reflect the recent relatively slow growth in the economy and the current uncertainty about Brexit. There have also been substantial increases in tax-raising by the Government.Gardenwalker said:
Remainers (like me) need to account for this boon, as it seems to cut against the arguments we are making and have been making for some time.Sandpit said:
For all the good news (for the Government), the UK is still borrowing more and more money and almost certainly once we get a balanceed budget there will be calls to increase spending.0 -
That last thread was most disconcerting, kept thinking it was a speech by an aged Paul o'grady at the top of it.0
-
-
Getting the rejection in December and then the Malthouse compromise sooner would have given longer to talk to Europe to get a solution. The wasted month was pointless.Richard_Nabavi said:
True, but there's zero sign that anything would be different if she hadn't.AlastairMeeks said:
She wasted a whole month after that.Richard_Nabavi said:
Some truth in that, but the deadline isn't entirely her fault. She after all had a deal agreed with the EU and ready to ratify back in November.AlastairMeeks said:
No, I don't have sympathy for her. The impossibly tight deadline is largely of her own creation, as is most of the alienation of the cats.Richard_Nabavi said:You really do have to feel some sympathy for Theresa May. Herding cats is hard enough at the best of times, but she has to herd enough of them through the right lobby against an impossibly tight deadline.
0 -
Wait, I thought the views of expats were irrelevant?TOPPING said:
Including, until 48 hours ago, Shamima Begum.DougSeal said:
The Code of Conduct for Members of Parliament states at Part III(6) that "Members have a general duty to act in the interests of the nation as a whole; and a special duty to their constituents.". The "nation as a whole" is some 66 million people, not 17.4 million, and while MP's arguably have a duty to implement the 2016 referendum, they certainly have a duty to do so in a manner that is in the interests of the whole country and their constituents. In pushing the country over a No-Deal cliff they are not acting in anyone's interests. If the general well-being of the country as a whole is damaged by the way they implement Brexit then the legislature is failing in its duty to the whole people, leavers, remainers, abstainers, children, prisoners and everyone else.Philip_Thompson said:
The rest of us as a whole voted for Brexit remember?Dadge said:
I'd rather the Tories commit suicide than they murder the rest of us.HYUFD said:
Depends what type of Leave the Tories advocate but it would be suicide for the Tories to revoke BrexitPolruan said:
That’s a fair point actually. I’m not sure I agree but the logic does break down completely if you posit credible splits to both the traditional left and right blocks. Only works if both split though, for example if LabLibTig can be tarred with blocking Brexit then the Tories stay together as the leave party and can continue winning small majorities by blaming foreigners for everything.HYUFD said:
No, the best result for the Tories is for Labour to back Brexit and rule out EUref2 enabling a surge of Labour Remainers to TIG and the LDs and the best result for Labour is for the to revoke Brexit enabling a surge of Tory Leavers to Farage's new Brexit Party and UKIPPolruan said:
I’m still not convinced it’s possible for Labour to force a 2nd referendum without massive electoral damage. The position hasn’t changed: the best result for the Tories is for Labour to be seen to stop Brexit and the best result for Labour is the Tories to proceed with Brexit whilst Labour are seen to try and stop it.dixiedean said:
I guine.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
The Tories are just implementing the will of the people.
0 -
Liam Fox it up again.Scott_P said:
The only man in the known universe more useless than Kevin O'Connor of the Student Loan Company, who doesn't know what order the months of the year come in.0 -
Now I'm imagining a Corbyn speech delivered in the voice of Lily Savage.Scrapheap_as_was said:That last thread was most disconcerting, kept thinking it was a speech by an aged Paul o'grady at the top of it.
0 -
Would be an improvement on the voice of Eeyore.williamglenn said:
Now I'm imagining a Corbyn speech delivered in the voice of Lily Savage.Scrapheap_as_was said:That last thread was most disconcerting, kept thinking it was a speech by an aged Paul o'grady at the top of it.
0 -
Officially, the economy was growing by 1.7% during that period.TheAncientMariner said:
Well the key point is that this income relates to 2017-2018 and so doesn't really reflect the recent relatively slow growth in the economy and the current uncertainty about Brexit. There have also been substantial increases in tax-raising by the Government.Gardenwalker said:
Remainers (like me) need to account for this boon, as it seems to cut against the arguments we are making and have been making for some time.Sandpit said:
For all the good news (for the Government), the UK is still borrowing more and more money and almost certainly once we get a balanceed budget there will be calls to increase spending.0 -
It's the only implication I can draw from the post by @kinabalu that I originally responded to. Saying you disagree with the decision is one thing. But second guessing Javid's motives such that he's wrong because lots of ordinary people would have done the same, seems odd to me._Anazina_ said:
This appears to have become a bit of a thing.Endillion said:
People keep trying to say that the popularity of the decision is somehow proof that Javid got it wrong.Dadge said:
The public doesn't know enough to make the decision. I mean, even the Home Secretary doesn't know enough to make the decision.Endillion said:
I don't know where this idea came from that it is the job of our political leaders actively to refuse to do things that the overwhelming majority of the public want. But I don't like it one bit.kinabalu said:
A forlorn hope, I would wager. Begum has become one of those topics. Last one I recall was Worboys, the 'black cab rapist'. Nobody wanted him out. Nobody wants her home.OldKingCole said:Out to lunch now folk. Part of our party are Kippers, so I hope we don't talk about either politics or that ISIS girl.
That is what happens if you do lots of rapes or run off to join ISIS. The public take umbrage.
Me too, I'm part of the public, nothing special about me.
Trouble is, there would appear to be nothing special about the Home Secretary either, and that is not so great.
Can you point us to a post where anyone is actually saying that?0 -
-
To be fair to Liam Fox (not something you hear often), he really can't finalise much until parliament gets off its backside and agrees what the relationship with the EU should look like, because all other trade deals will be heavily impacted by that.ydoethur said:
Liam Fox it up again.Scott_P said:
The only man in the known universe more useless than Kevin O'Connor of the Student Loan Company, who doesn't know what order the months of the year come in.0 -
I can taste your tears. Hopefully we will too!Scott_P said:The EU will be erecting a statue of Farage at some point...
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/10985872857366405130 -
In further praise of British bureaucracy, the passport system is very efficient.0
-
-
Your inference?Endillion said:
It's the only implication I can draw from the post by @kinabalu that I originally responded to. Saying you disagree with the decision is one thing. But second guessing Javid's motives such that he's wrong because lots of ordinary people would have done the same, seems odd to me._Anazina_ said:
This appears to have become a bit of a thing.Endillion said:
People keep trying to say that the popularity of the decision is somehow proof that Javid got it wrong.Dadge said:
The public doesn't know enough to make the decision. I mean, even the Home Secretary doesn't know enough to make the decision.Endillion said:
I don't know where this idea came from that it is the job of our political leaders actively to refuse to do things that the overwhelming majority of the public want. But I don't like it one bit.kinabalu said:
A forlorn hope, I would wager. Begum has become one of those topics. Last one I recall was Worboys, the 'black cab rapist'. Nobody wanted him out. Nobody wants her home.OldKingCole said:Out to lunch now folk. Part of our party are Kippers, so I hope we don't talk about either politics or that ISIS girl.
That is what happens if you do lots of rapes or run off to join ISIS. The public take umbrage.
Me too, I'm part of the public, nothing special about me.
Trouble is, there would appear to be nothing special about the Home Secretary either, and that is not so great.
Can you point us to a post where anyone is actually saying that?0 -
Surely Liam will have to resign. The Faeroe Islands are all very well, but the explicit promise of Brexit was that absolutely nothing would be worse than it now is, many things would be better and we'd be paid millions for the privilege. I'm not yet seeing it.Scott_P said:0 -
Corbyn calls for the return of the Isis bride.
Fairly predictable but will go down like a lead balloon with the voters who backed the Home Secretary by 78%0 -
You assume that those trade deals are beneficial to the UK.Stark_Dawning said:
Surely Liam will have to resign. The Faeroe Islands are all very well, but the explicit promise of Brexit was that absolutely nothing would be worse than it now is, many things would be better and we'd be paid millions for the privilege. I'm not yet seeing it.Scott_P said:0 -
You know, Theresa May could resolve many of her personal political problems by defecting.
.... 0 -
Presumably because there are regular months (three or four times I imagine) a year where VAT, self-employed or other taxes are due which produce a spike in receiptsCookie said:
There seems to be a surprisingly regular pattern to this graph - lots of letter Ws. Anyone know why this should be the case?Sandpit said:0 -
For those odds-watching, Ian Austin's gone down to 2 as the next MP to defect.
Edited extra bit: surprised Ferrari are still 2.87 for the Constructors', given the murmurings. 3.15 on Betfair.0
