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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The indications are that the Article 50 exit might have to be put back
Cabinet ministers who believe it may be necessary to extend A50 include to finalise deal include:
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The culture wars are going to be entertaining. We do not forgive, we do not forget.
TBH we don't have time to legislate for No Deal either, but that's our problem rather than the EU's - it wouldn't stop us leaving on time, just make it even more chaotic than it already would be.
It seems quite likely Theresa May would return from that with the offer of a short extension provided the deal passes the Commons by the deadline, but not otherwise.
Mind you I just used the the phrase 'anyone with any sense' in relation to MPs so not sure that is a realistic prospect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqQ99s4Ywnw
The extension will only come AFTER we have agreed to their terms.
Now, assume that May gets nothing new at all. Will the ERG fold? Will Labour MPs?
No Deal and a 29th March departure looks ever more likely.
Sounds familiar
So I'm fucked. Although to be honest it's not that bad IF an extension is accompanied with a deal, as strengthening GBP will easily offset the £500 loss, yay! But if we have an extension *and* no deal, then that's quite bad: projections are £1=$1.15 if no deal and that's too low to absorb. So I'm hoping.
It might be interesting to work out what the full list of 27 sweeteners might look like.
Judging by that article there seem to be some very mixed messages coming from the EU:
(1) An extension beyond the Euro elections is unthinkable BUT they're afraid Theresa May may not have the courage to ask for a long enough extension;
(2) Renegotiation is out of the question BUT it has all got to be rationally revisited.
The Gibraltarians voted to remain close to the U.K. we won’t give them to Spain unless they request it. They’re not some fucking chess piece to hand over in a negotiation
"In a call with Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, on Wednesday afternoon, May was asked to come up with “concrete proposals” but did not offer any new thinking, failing even to cite the previous suggestions of a time limit or unilateral exit mechanism."
Thinking on feet not a strong point.
Maybe we could upgrade Malta's George Cross - to a life peerage or something ...
On the first day of No Deal the UK gave to me, The Rock and a base military (Spain)
On the second day of No Deal the UK gave to me, two peeing chavs and the Rock and a base military (Belgium)
Five drained Fens (Netherlands, thanks Cornelius)
Six pineapple pizzas
Fifteen Elgin Marbles
Portugal - the port houses of Vila Nova de Gaia
Poland - something WW2
"It's not like the British actually *need*" WilliamGlenn.
PM haggling with parliamentary factions to find a proposal that will get the votes they need is much more workable in the British system than MPs trying to freelance something against the wishes of the government.
I guess what's unusual about the current situation is that the coalition she needs to keep her job only partly overlaps with the coalition she needs to stop the economy catching fire. But at some point shortly after Exit Day she's scheduled to lose her job anyhow, so I wouldn't be surprised if she eventually pivots.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/25/orourke-2020-decision-months-away-1126571
Make sure you pass your exams - and judges will let you off.
You're main point appears to be "bad things can't happen because someone will stop it"
History teaches us otherwise.
1) They could say yes. At the end of the first extension nothing will have changed, so it probably leads to another extension. This could literally go on for years. Eventually the UK either gives up on Brexit, changes its government or agrees to the the deal, any of which is fine. In the meantime it's still a member, but you can make decisions pretty much without it. The uncertainty isn't good for anyone, but it's not terrible, and business investment is gradually draining from the UK to surrounding countries, which is good for surrounding countries.
2) They could say no, you only get an extension if something changes. Hopefully that something will be a Deal vs Remain referendum, but it's not at all clear that TMay would do that, and if she did whether she'd have the votes. Alternatively maybe the opposition MPs blink and agree to the deal, but the British parliament seems quite disfunctional, so that's not something you can rely on. The PM could unilaterally revoke, but she probably won't, and if she did you risk the Brexiters setting bombs off in Brussels. No Deal is terrible for everyone, especially Ireland, so I don't think any of the member states will want to risk getting the blame.
3) They could say yes, but only if they get other concessions. In terms of pure national interest hardball this might seem attractive, but since this is most likely the first of a series of extensions, you're opening the door to constant negotiation drama: If Spain want to get X, they have to let Estonia try to get Y, and somebody might accidentally paint themselves into demanding something and blow the whole thing up. So I think people will prefer not to open that door.
You can't quite be sure of something that needs unanimity but I think they'd pick (1).
Oh, and Good Morning everyone!
Guy Verhofstadt might be annoyed at this but the European Parliament doesn't have a veto on Article 50 extensions like they do with the Withdrawal Agreement.
Bear in mind of course that IANAL!
After that case however, there was a certain amount of comment on the mind-bending incompetence of the way the CPS had framed the charges.
Time for me to a) make my wife's morning coffee and b) set off to the gym. No snow here.
I think he probably meant that the element of conspiracy was an aggravating factor in the Huhne case that was absent in the Onasanya one - although I'd be dubious of that as well given the involvement of her brother - but really!
Looking rather frosty outside. But glad I'm not in Chicago right now.
I take your point but if the Judge sees Onasanya as a role model given her position and crime then heaven help us and what on earth is the Judiciaries view of the BAME community if they think that sort of person is something to aspire to.
He was the only one in the car park...
On the other hand, I feel sorry for all of them. And I would not have sent any of them to prison.
The position about Euro elections is not as difficult as it looks. It is technically possible for Britain to simply to fail to hold elections. That could and probably would result in a complaint to the ECJ, but they are aware of the dynamics and will probably not rush to judgment. In the meantime, the UK seats would simply sit empty.
Whereas revocation is, effectively, in her gift. And, as I said....
I have no problem with the sentence of the attacker of Sir Christopher Meyer. I don't see that much purpose would have been served sending him to jail on the facts as reported.
Any excuse to let another day tick by.
Mr. B2, aye, I'm a little surprised we haven't heard anything (yet) of that nature from Austria et al. When their temperatures rise just a little, the feet of snow that fell there will cause fresh problems.