politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov leader ratings finds both TMay and Corbyn strugglin
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Yes, the psychology of all this. An example that I think of - with these latest brexit 'negotiations' - is that you put your house up for sale, asking price £X.MarqueeMark said:British Gas used to negotiate the price for acquiring production from UK offshore gasfields. These negotiations were expected to go on for months, with teams on either side drawing out concessions of a tiny fraction of a penny per unit each time they met. On one occasion, at the first such meeting, the BG negotiator heard their opening proposal, sat back in his chair looking at his notes - and said "Yep, we can accept that."
He knew that rather than rejoicing that they had got the top price they never expected to achieve, the guys on the other side would instead forever be wondering how they had screwed up. "How did we offer so cheap a price that they jumped on it?"
They hadn't. What they didn't know was that he was retiring. And their proposal was within a range of acceptable outcomes. So he took it. And the thought of their continuing discomfort amused him.
1st buyer through the door, day 1, offers the full whack, £X. Are you over the moon? No, you think you must have undervalued it. So you reject that, up the asking price, and then spend weeks and months trying to achieve the new target. You fail and end up talking an offer that is no better than - and probably worse than - the one you originally turned down.
Is this how it will be with the Deal? Time will tell.0 -
The conservatives remind me of the orcs in mordor - they fight and kill each other, but they hate their enemies much more. If a tangible political threat appears they will unite until it is over.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think we are likely to end up with Corbyn in all scenarios.Peter_the_Punter said:
Richard, is May's Deal really best for the Party?Richard_Nabavi said:
They (we, for the moment!) are in desperate strategic trouble whatever happens. Obviously the worst for the country and therefore the party would be crashing out with no deal. A long delay or second referendum would be the second worst. The least bad for the country, and therefore for the party, would be to leave with the deal.Pulpstar said:The Tories could be in desperate strategic trouble if Labour backbench (Stringer, Flint, Mann etc) votes are used eventually to get the WA through and the backstop is not to the DUP's liking - could be absolubtely friendless in parliament at a subsequent GE.
I assume it would carry with the backstop, so the DUP would jump ship. That probably leads to a VONC and a GE.
Sure the Party would be ok with that? Sure we don't wind up with Venezuela as well as Brexit?
Under a no-deal crash out, we first have a period of utter chaos for which the Tories will be blamed for a generation (and justifiably so even though others like Corbyn and the Labour centrists should by rights also share the blame). The party itself might well split in that scenario - there is no way that sensible MPs like Phil Hammond, Amber Rudd, Richard Harrington etc are going to want to associate themselves with the disaster.
Cancelling Brexit or holding a referendum is also extremely problematic. In party terms it is hard to see how any leader proposing it could survive, but even if that weren't an issue it would represent the complete rejection of a policy around which the whole party united in 2016. 'Trust us, we brought you a clusterf*k which the country only narrowly escaped, and at the cost of irreversible damage', is not an election-winning message for a party which when I joined it prided itself on pragmatism, economic competence, and avoidance of ideological extremism.
If the deal can be agreed, then at least we'll have delivered a workable form of Brexit which doesn't trash the economy too badly, and which could eventually be the basis for a reasonable settlement. Given the current bad place the country and the party are in, that's as good as we're going to get. We might even avoid the second disaster of Corbyn, if the Conservatives can remember they need to be united, although at the moment that's looking somewhat implausible.
And once Brexit is done (no matter how), we have a few years before the next GE. NO ONE is going to campaign on re-applying to join the EU.0 -
Now I can agree with your last paragraph.Beverley_C said:
Indeed, but "When the country reflects on this disaster, it will no doubt come to the conclusion that Cameron should never have held the referendum" loses a bit of the fun element.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Hi Beverley.
You may not agree with my observations but maybe add your own comments rather than striking out mine.
I am entitled to my view
It is demob-happy time now. Responsibility is a thing of the past and conventions are being abandoned as we charge towards an irresponsibly managed future.
No deal has to be ruled out on the 14th Feb by a good majority and put ERG back in their box0 -
The deal is great for the conservatives because it prolongs negotiations for at least 2 years, probably a lot more, nothing really changes that quickly meaning that economic damage can be attributed to other causes, and they get to blame immigrants and the intransigent Europeans for all ills in the meantime. So essentially business as usual, including being able to paralyse Labour by seizing on any comments about the future relationship as ‘frustrating Brexit’, ‘trying to rejoin by stealth’ and so on. Domestic policy continues to be kept off the front pages, which is probably a net negative for Labour too.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think we are likely to end up with Corbyn in all scenarios.Peter_the_Punter said:
Richard, is May's Deal really best for the Party?Richard_Nabavi said:
They (we, for theal.Pulpstar said:The Tories could be in desperate strategic trouble if Labour backbench (Stringer, Flint, Mann etc) votes are used eventually to get the WA through and the backstop is not to the DUP's liking - could be absolubtely friendless in parliament at a subsequent GE.
I assume it would carry with the backstop, so the DUP would jump ship. That probably leads to a VONC and a GE.
Sure the Party would be ok with that? Sure we don't wind up with Venezuela as well as Brexit?
Under a no-deal crash out, we first have a period of utter chaos for which the Tories will be blamed for a generation (and justifiably so even though others like Corbyn and the Labour centrists should by rights also share the blame). The party itself might well split in that scenario - there is no way that sensible MPs like Phil Hammond, Amber Rudd, Richard Harrington etc are going to want to associate themselves with the disaster.
Cancelling Brexit or holding a referendum is also extremely problematic. In party terms it is hard to see how any leader proposing it could survive, but even if that weren't an issue it would represent the complete rejection of a policy around which the whole party united in 2016. 'Trust us, we brought you a clusterf*k which the country only narrowly escaped, and even then at the cost of irreversible damage', is not an election-winning message for a party which, when I joined it, prided itself on pragmatism, economic competence, and avoidance of ideological extremism.
If the deal can be agreed, then at least we'll have delivered a workable form of Brexit which doesn't trash the economy too badly, and which could eventually be the basis for a reasonable settlement. Given the current bad place the country and the party are in, that's as good as we're going to get. We might even avoid the second disaster of Corbyn, if the Conservatives can remember they need to be united, although at the moment that's looking somewhat implausible.0 -
#ComicalMark returns...MarqueeMark said:
Picked up some pasta today. "Best before" was mid-2021.Benpointer said:
Surely everything you have already bought with a sell-by date after March will in reality be fine this time next year?rottenborough said:
Latest seems to be that No Deal will switch to June, rather than end of March, as May fiddles around with some kind of nonsense extension.Beverley_C said:
Yes. I am expecting No Deal. I have never lived in a failing State before so should it should be interesting. Our very own Venezuela and without Corbyn being elected.Nigel_Foremain said:
Interesting anecdote. As a result of Brexit some of "the rich" will get poorer, but we can be sure that the poor will definitely get poorer. They will be the ones that suffer. Immigration will probably not come down, though as you say, it will be non-Europeans who will make up the numbers.rural_voter said:
My car maintenance man for the last 27 years and his entire family voted to leave becauseEl_Capitano said:
I think it's usually in the context of throwing a common Leave argument back at Leavers, isn't it? Rather than actually espousing any particular belief in sovereignty per se.Pulpstar said:
Hmm, plenty on social media whenever the Gov't is defeated about "parliamentary sovereignty" re Brexit; less so when the Gov't is winning. Any ideas on that ?El_Capitano said:Slackbladder said:
Generally the malaise is a lack of "agency" (horrible sociological word, but there we go). People of all ages believe they don't have control over their own lives. The difference is that older people are more likely to blame this on the EU, and younger people on capitalism or some ill-formed concept of it.
'whoever we vote for, nothing changes; all that happens is that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer'.
Not a lot in there about sovereignty, immigration or even the EU. More about the after-effects of Thatcher and the lack of fair voting aka PR in Westminster elections.
Meanwhile a neighbour of a friend voted that way to, ahem, 'send the darkies home'. But there aren't many of them on the English-Welsh border and cutting down EU immigration might increase the numbers.
Who could ever have imagined that?
I now need to check the sell-by dates on a whole load of stockpiled food that was ready for March.
It's not as if it's going to be strawberries is it?
Just sayin'....0 -
Its a good job England bat deep.....-1
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Thanks Richard. It's pretty much how I see it, and I take no pleasure at the thought of any of these outcomes.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think we are likely to end up with Corbyn in all scenarios.Peter_the_Punter said:
Richard, is May's Deal really best for the Party?Richard_Nabavi said:
They (we, for the moment!) are in desperate strategic trouble whatever happens. Obviously the worst for the country and therefore the party would be crashing out with no deal. A long delay or second referendum would be the second worst. The least bad for the country, and therefore for the party, would be to leave with the deal.Pulpstar said:The Tories could be in desperate strategic trouble if Labour backbench (Stringer, Flint, Mann etc) votes are used eventually to get the WA through and the backstop is not to the DUP's liking - could be absolubtely friendless in parliament at a subsequent GE.
I assume it would carry with the backstop, so the DUP would jump ship. That probably leads to a VONC and a GE.
Sure the Party would be ok with that? Sure we don't wind up with Venezuela as well as Brexit?
Under a no-deal crash out, we first have a period of utter chaos for which the Tories will be blamed for a generation (and justifiably so even though others like Corbyn and the Labour centrists should by rights also share the blame). The party itself might well split in that scenario - there is no way that sensible MPs like Phil Hammond, Amber Rudd, Richard Harrington etc are going to want to associate themselves with the disaster.
Cancelling Brexit or holding a referendum is also extremely problematic. In party terms it is hard to see how any leader proposing it could survive, but even if that weren't an issue it would represent the complete rejection of a policy around which the whole party united in 2016. 'Trust us, we brought you a clusterf*k which the country only narrowly escaped, and even then at the cost of irreversible damage', is not an election-winning message for a party which, when I joined it, prided itself on pragmatism, economic competence, and avoidance of ideological extremism.
If the deal can be agreed, then at least we'll have delivered a workable form of Brexit which doesn't trash the economy too badly, and which could eventually be the basis for a reasonable settlement. Given the current bad place the country and the party are in, that's as good as we're going to get. We might even avoid the second disaster of Corbyn, if the Conservatives can remember they need to be united, although at the moment that's looking somewhat implausible.0 -
Not uniquely so. They were consistent with the result of a referendum on ending freedom of movement at all costs, but not a referendum on remaining members of the European Union.Sean_F said:
The red lines were not plucked out of thin air. They were consistent with the result.Polruan said:
I think it’s more likely to come to the conclusion that TM red lines caused the disaster by necessitating an unpalatable deal. It’s only the best deal if you treat them as a given.Big_G_NorthWales said:rottenborough said:
Latest seems to be that No Deal will switch to June, rather than end of March, as May fiddles around with some kind of nonsense extension.Beverley_C said:
Yes. I am expecting No Deal. I have never lived in a failing State before so should it should be interesting. Our very own Venezuela and without Corbyn being elected.Nigel_Foremain said:
Interesting anecdote. As a result of Brexit some of "the rich" will get poorer, but we can be sure that the poor will definitely get poorer. They will be the ones that suffer. Immigration will probably not come down, though as you say, it will be non-Europeans who will make up the numbers.rural_voter said:
My car maintenance man for the last 27 years and his entire family voted to leave becauseEl_Capitano said:
I think it's usually in the context of throwing a common Leave argument back atPulpstar said:
Hmm, plenty on social media whenever the Gov't is defeated about "parliamentary sovereignty" re Brexit; less so when the Gov't is winning. Any ideas on that ?El_Capitano said:
"Going forward", it looks less and less important.Slackbladder said:Does anyone not see that the EU doesn't budge, and the 'will' of Parliment is broken, then it prove that Parliment is indeed no longer the soveriegn power of the country?
How do you think thats going to look going forward, and the fallout from that?
'whoever we vote for, nothing changes; all that happens is that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer'.
Not a lot in there about sovereignty, immigration or even the EU. More about the after-effects of Thatcher and the lack of fair voting aka PR in Westminster elections.
Meanwhile a neighbour of a friend voted that way to, ahem, 'send the darkies home'. But there aren't many of them on the English-Welsh border and cutting down EU immigration might increase the numbers.
Who could ever have imagined that?
I now need to check the sell-by dates on a whole load of stockpiled food that was ready for March.0 -
Mr. Meeks, "Nobody attacks their voter base".
*points at May's 2017 manifesto*0 -
The obese will be fine - we are stockpiling Ben and Gerry's and Magnums to avoid any Brexit shortfalls:AlastairMeeks said:
The obese were disproportionately likely to vote Leave. No one attacks their voter base.Peter_the_Punter said:
It surprises me Leavers haven't made more of the anti-obesity argument.philiph said:
Modern bread is vile, closely related poison, so the less you eat the better.Pulpstar said:
It'll be bread, it's always bloody bread that gets cleared off the shelves whenever there is a panic buy due to snow, brexit or whatever in this country !Benpointer said:
Surely everything you have already bought with a sell-by date after March will in reality be fine this time next year?rottenborough said:
Latest seems to be that No Deal will switch to June, rather than end of March, as May fiddles around with some kind of nonsense extension.Beverley_C said:
Yes. I am expecting No Deal. I have never lived in a failing State before so should it should be interesting. Our very own Venezuela and without Corbyn being elected.Nigel_Foremain said:
Interesting anecdote. As a result of Brexit some of "the rich" will get poorer, but we can be sue up the numbers.rural_voter said:
My car maintenance man for the last 27 years and his entire family voted to leave becauseEl_Capitano said:
I thon capitalism or some ill-formed concept of it.Pulpstar said:
Hmm, plenty on social media whenever the Gov't is defeated about "parliamentary sovereignty" re Brexit; less so when the Gov't is winning. Any ideas on that ?El_Capitano said:Slackbladder said:
'whoever we vote for, nothing changes; all that happens is that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer'.
Not a lot in there about sovereignty, immigration or even the EU. More about the after-effects of Thatcher and the lack of fair voting aka PR in Westminster elections.
Meanwhile a neighbour of a friend voted that way to, ahem, 'send the darkies home'. But there aren't many of them on the English-Welsh border and cutting down EU immigration might increase the numbers.
Who could ever have imagined that?
I now need to check the sell-by dates on a whole load of stockpiled food that was ready for March.
It's not as if it's going to be strawberries is it?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-470718740 -
The loss of DUP support would not necessarily cause the Conservatives to lose a vote of confidence.
It would certainly be best for the country, and Conservative Party, if the WA was passed.0 -
John Mann wants funding for his community.
I stand to be corrected but EU ERDF is pumping money into his community already. It certainly was in the 2000s.
No doubt all his Leave voters paid no attention to where the money for new roads, community centres, industrial units, training centres etc etc came from.0 -
Good post Richard.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think we are likely to end up with Corbyn in all scenarios.Peter_the_Punter said:
Richard, is May's Deal really best for the Party?Richard_Nabavi said:
They (we, for the moment!) are in desperate strategic trouble whatever happens. Obviously the worst for the country and therefore the party would be crashing out with no deal. A long delay or second referendum would be the second worst. The least bad for the country, and therefore for the party, would be to leave with the deal.Pulpstar said:The Tories could be in desperate strategic trouble if Labour backbench (Stringer, Flint, Mann etc) votes are used eventually to get the WA through and the backstop is not to the DUP's liking - could be absolubtely friendless in parliament at a subsequent GE.
I assume it would carry with the backstop, so the DUP would jump ship. That probably leads to a VONC and a GE.
Sure the Party would be ok with that? Sure we don't wind up with Venezuela as well as Brexit?
Under a no-deal crash out, we first have a period of utter chaos for which the Tories will be blamed for a generation (and justifiably so even though others like Corbyn and the Labour centrists should by rights also share the blame). The party itself might well split in that scenario - there is no way that sensible MPs like Phil Hammond, Amber Rudd, Richard Harrington etc are going to want to associate themselves with the disaster.
Cancelling Brexit or holding a referendum is also extremely problematic. In party terms it is hard to see how any leader proposing it could survive, but even if that weren't an issue it would represent the complete rejection of a policy around which the whole party united in 2016. 'Trust us, we brought you a clusterf*k which the country only narrowly escaped, and even then at the cost of irreversible damage', is not an election-winning message for a party which, when I joined it, prided itself on pragmatism, economic competence, and avoidance of ideological extremism.
If the deal can be agreed, then at least we'll have delivered a workable form of Brexit which doesn't trash the economy too badly, and which could eventually be the basis for a reasonable settlement. Given the current bad place the country and the party are in, that's as good as we're going to get. We might even avoid the second disaster of Corbyn, if the Conservatives can remember they need to be united, although at the moment that's looking somewhat implausible.
However I think you are to pessimistic.
The Conservative Party, is always pragmatic to retain power and that will eventually mean a deal.
However the transition period or implementation stage, will last a very long time.0 -
How long will 7 stone of fat and muscle keep me going for ? That's what the calc reckons I can lose before I head to 'underweight'MarqueeMark said:
The obese will be fine - we are stockpiling Ben and Gerry's and Magnums to avoid any Brexit shortfalls:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47071874
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Must admit I agree with this - certainly as regards the ending of FOM.Sean_F said:The red lines were not plucked out of thin air. They were consistent with the result.
Watching the documentary the other night on the DC re-negotiation (great, I thought - the programme, I mean), it was crystal clear what everybody involved regarded as THE issue. Not the only one, of course, but the nut they simply HAD to crack in order for Remain to win. It was Immigration. It's a re-write of history to pretend otherwise.
She HAD to have this as a red line.0 -
Sure, but I think that a reasonable observer would have thought that ending free movement was one of a major motivator of Leave voters, and a Conservative PM who said we should keep free movement, after the Referendum, would have been roundly criticised for it.Polruan said:
Not uniquely so. They were consistent with the result of a referendum on ending freedom of movement at all costs, but not a referendum on remaining members of the European Union.Sean_F said:
The red lines were not plucked out of thin air. They were consistent with the result.Polruan said:
I think it’s more likely to come to the conclusion that TM red lines caused the disaster by necessitating an unpalatable deal. It’s only the best deal if you treat them as a given.Big_G_NorthWales said:rottenborough said:
Latest seems to be that No Deal will switch to June, rather than end of March, as May fiddles around with some kind of nonsense extension.Beverley_C said:Nigel_Foremain said:
Interesting anecdote. As a result of Brexit some of "the rich" will get poorer, but we can be sure that the poor will definitely get poorer. They will be the ones that suffer. Immigration will probably not come down, though as you say, it will be non-Europeans who will make up the numbers.rural_voter said:El_Capitano said:
I think it's usually in the context of throwing a common Leave argument back atPulpstar said:
Hmm, plenty on social media whenever the Gov't is defeated about "parliamentary sovereignty" re Brexit; less so when the Gov't is winning. Any ideas on that ?El_Capitano said:
"Going forward", it looks less and less important.Slackbladder said:Does anyone not see that the EU doesn't budge, and the 'will' of Parliment is broken, then it prove that Parliment is indeed no longer the soveriegn power of the country?
How do you think thats going to look going forward, and the fallout from that?
Who could ever have imagined that?
I now need to check the sell-by dates on a whole load of stockpiled food that was ready for March.0 -
The money came from better off UK taxpayers.rottenborough said:John Mann wants funding for his community.
No doubt all his Leave voters paid no attention to where the money for new roads, community centres, industrial units, training centres etc etc came from.0 -
They know that it came originally from UK taxpayers - isn't that the whole point.rottenborough said:John Mann wants funding for his community.
I stand to be corrected but EU ERDF is pumping money into his community already. It certainly was in the 2000s.
No doubt all his Leave voters paid no attention to where the money for new roads, community centres, industrial units, training centres etc etc came from.0 -
But the problem is not enough Tories signed up for the deal and for the others to back track now is probably impossible.Polruan said:
The deal is great for the conservatives because it prolongs negotiations for at least 2 years, probably a lot more, nothing really changes that quickly meaning that economic damage can be attributed to other causes, and they get to blame immigrants and the intransigent Europeans for all ills in the meantime. So essentially business as usual, including being able to paralyse Labour by seizing on any comments about the future relationship as ‘frustrating Brexit’, ‘trying to rejoin by stealth’ and so on. Domestic policy continues to be kept off the front pages, which is probably a net negative for Labour too.
So the Tories have to hope that somehow the EU throws them a bone or they have to choose one option from a list of complete destruction via a No Deal Brexit or embarrassment via Revoking.
They really haven't got a decent option and its all the ERG and Cameron's fault.0 -
0
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That's some tub of Ben and Jerry's......Pulpstar said:
How long will 7 stone of fatMarqueeMark said:
The obese will be fine - we are stockpiling Ben and Gerry's and Magnums to avoid any Brexit shortfalls:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-470718740 -
Costco sized....MarqueeMark said:
That's some tub of Ben and Jerry's......Pulpstar said:
How long will 7 stone of fatMarqueeMark said:
The obese will be fine - we are stockpiling Ben and Gerry's and Magnums to avoid any Brexit shortfalls:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-470718740 -
If everyone voted the same way as John Mann on May's deal we'd very quickly be out of the quagmire. Corbyn would also have had his beloved General Election.rottenborough said:John Mann wants funding for his community.
I stand to be corrected but EU ERDF is pumping money into his community already. It certainly was in the 2000s.
No doubt all his Leave voters paid no attention to where the money for new roads, community centres, industrial units, training centres etc etc came from.0 -
Jaysus. An extension followed by no deal. My worse-case scenario. Just when you think the Government can't get any worse, it gets worse. Damn, damn, damn...Richard_Nabavi said:This is an interesting article on extension of the date:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/31/eu-fears-short-article-50-extension-will-mean-no-deal-brexit-in-june
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If Labour share your analysis they will presumably hold the line in opposing. Ditto the other opposition parties. Meaning that she will have to get the deal through the ERG/DUP. Not sure how she intends going about that.Polruan said:The deal is great for the conservatives because it prolongs negotiations for at least 2 years, probably a lot more, nothing really changes that quickly meaning that economic damage can be attributed to other causes, and they get to blame immigrants and the intransigent Europeans for all ills in the meantime. So essentially business as usual, including being able to paralyse Labour by seizing on any comments about the future relationship as ‘frustrating Brexit’, ‘trying to rejoin by stealth’ and so on. Domestic policy continues to be kept off the front pages, which is probably a net negative for Labour too.
Threaten them with a snap GE perhaps?0 -
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If TMay can stay in power for another 124 days she will be PM longer than Gordon Brown0
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Corbyn has the opportunity of causing chaos by abstaining on the next vote with some of his mps voting for, the vote passes and ERG and the DUP face decision time to collapse the governmentkinabalu said:
If Labour share your analysis they will presumably hold the line in opposing. Ditto the other opposition parties. Meaning that she will have to get the deal through the ERG/DUP. Not sure how she intends going about that.Polruan said:The deal is great for the conservatives because it prolongs negotiations for at least 2 years, probably a lot more, nothing really changes that quickly meaning that economic damage can be attributed to other causes, and they get to blame immigrants and the intransigent Europeans for all ills in the meantime. So essentially business as usual, including being able to paralyse Labour by seizing on any comments about the future relationship as ‘frustrating Brexit’, ‘trying to rejoin by stealth’ and so on. Domestic policy continues to be kept off the front pages, which is probably a net negative for Labour too.
Threaten them with a snap GE perhaps?0 -
No the Red lines respect May's interpretation of the referendum result. SM and FOM were clearly unpopular with many Leavers, but some Leavers favoured EFTA/EEA.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The so called red lines reflected the referendum. A Norway style deal does not and we would be better to remainPolruan said:
I think it’s more likely to come to the conclusion that TM red lines caused the disaster by necessitating an unpalatable deal. It’s only the best deal if you treat them as a given.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If so, the UK government will be looking at a completely different commission and MEP make up. Anything could happenrottenborough said:
Latest seems to be that No Deal will switch to June, rather than end of March, as May fiddles around with some kind of nonsense extension.Beverley_C said:
Yes. I am expecting No Deal. I have never lived in a failing State before so should it should be interesting. Our very own Venezuela and without Corbyn being elected.Nigel_Foremain said:
Interesting anecdote. As a result of Brexit some of "the rich" will get poorer, but we can be sure that the poor will definitely get poorer. They will be the ones that suffer. Immigration will probably not come down, though as you say, it will be non-Europeans who will make up the numbers.rural_voter said:
My car maintenance man for the last 27El_Capitano said:
I think it's usually in the context of throwing a common Leave argument back atPulpstar said:
Hmm, plenty on social media whenever the Gov't is defeated about "parliamentary sovereignty" re Brexit; less so when the Gov't is winning. Any ideas on that ?El_Capitano said:
"Going forward", it looks less and less important.Slackbladder said:Does anyone not see that the EU doesn't budge, and the 'will' of Parliment is broken, then it prove that Parliment is indeed no longer the soveriegn power of the country?
How do you think thats going to look going forward, and the fallout from that?
Meanwhile a neighbour of a friend voted that way to, ahem, 'send the darkies home'. But there aren't many of them on the English-Welsh border and cutting down EU immigration might increase the numbers.
Who could ever have imagined that?
I now need to check the sell-by dates on a whole load of stockpiled food that was ready for March.
When the country reflects on this disaster,0 -
Two depressing thoughts for the price of one.Alanbrooke said:If TMay can stay in power for another 124 days she will be PM longer than Gordon Brown
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Dear diary, today the England cricket team reached 100 runs.....0
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Trade deals played a role as well - though not for meFoxy said:
No the Red lines respect May's interpretation of the referendum result. SM and FOM were clearly unpopular with many Leavers, but some Leavers favoured EFTA/EEA.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The so called red lines reflected the referendum. A Norway style deal does not and we would be better to remainPolruan said:
I think it’s more likely to come to the conclusion that TM red lines caused the disaster by necessitating an unpalatable deal. It’s only the best deal if you treat them as a given.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If so, the UK government will be looking at a completely different commission and MEP make up. Anything could happenrottenborough said:
Latest seems to be that No Deal will switch to June, rather than end of March, as May fiddles around with some kind of nonsense extension.Beverley_C said:
Yes. I am expecting No Deal. I have never lived in a failing State before so should it should be interesting. Our very own Venezuela and without Corbyn being elected.Nigel_Foremain said:
Interesting anecdote. As a result of Brexit some of "the rich" will get poorer, but we can be sure that the poor will definitely get poorer. They will be the ones that suffer. Immigration will probably not come down, though as you say, it will be non-Europeans who will make up the numbers.rural_voter said:
My car maintenance man for the last 27El_Capitano said:
I think it's usually in the context of throwing a common Leave argument back atPulpstar said:
Hmm, plenty on social media whenever the Gov't is defeated about "parliamentary sovereignty" re Brexit; less so when the Gov't is winning. Any ideas on that ?El_Capitano said:
"Going forward", it looks less and less important.Slackbladder said:Does anyone not see that the EU doesn't budge, and the 'will' of Parliment is broken, then it prove that Parliment is indeed no longer the soveriegn power of the country?
How do you think thats going to look going forward, and the fallout from that?
Meanwhile a neighbour of a friend voted that way to, ahem, 'send the darkies home'. But there aren't many of them on the English-Welsh border and cutting down EU immigration might increase the numbers.
Who could ever have imagined that?
I now need to check the sell-by dates on a whole load of stockpiled food that was ready for March.
When the country reflects on this disaster,0 -
Wouldn’t you miss your girlfriend though?!Pulpstar said:
How long will 7 stone of fat and muscle keep me going for ? That's what the calc reckons I can lose before I head to 'underweight'MarqueeMark said:
The obese will be fine - we are stockpiling Ben and Gerry's and Magnums to avoid any Brexit shortfalls:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47071874
😱0 -
both children of the manse\vicarageAlastairMeeks said:
Two depressing thoughts for the price of one.Alanbrooke said:If TMay can stay in power for another 124 days she will be PM longer than Gordon Brown
0 -
Great century, shame it took eight of them to do it though.MarqueeMark said:Dear diary, today the England cricket team reached 100 runs.....
0 -
The advantage of being skinny is that I won't be seen as a walking feast when the food runs out.0
-
I agree. If a Norway solution is adopted then it might even garner a temporary majority in opinion polls (same with the official LP position in so far as it can be interpreted as something meaningful). However, once the public started to understand it properly they would be livid. Most of the benefits of the EU, a few negatives removed but most negatives amplified a thousandfold due to having no political representation. Remain or May's deal are the only sane alternatives. Crash out is reckless but has a logical consistency and may lead to a rapid accommodation but is too bloody risky. I voted remain and would love to reverse the referendum result if that could be done on a democratic basis without inflicting terrible cultural and political damage. Not sure that it can.Big_G_NorthWales said:
.....
The so called red lines reflected the referendum. A Norway style deal does not and we would be better to remain0 -
Are you planning to outrun the fatties ?Morris_Dancer said:The advantage of being skinny is that I won't be seen as a walking feast when the food runs out.
0 -
your more of an hors d'oeuvreMorris_Dancer said:The advantage of being skinny is that I won't be seen as a walking feast when the food runs out.
0 -
-
The fact that future funding may only be coming from the U.K. government as a political sweetener shows the value of a rationale Europe-wide system based on objective need.TheAncientMariner said:
They know that it came originally from UK taxpayers - isn't that the whole point.rottenborough said:John Mann wants funding for his community.
I stand to be corrected but EU ERDF is pumping money into his community already. It certainly was in the 2000s.
No doubt all his Leave voters paid no attention to where the money for new roads, community centres, industrial units, training centres etc etc came from.
Brexit is casting us back 40 years to the disgusting world of pork barrellism.0 -
Yes, but my sense is that he prefers to just keep opposing the 'tory brexit'.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn has the opportunity of causing chaos by abstaining on the next vote with some of his mps voting for, the vote passes and ERG and the DUP face decision time to collapse the government
Can we please revisit that question I had for you. As below -
IF Mrs May decides that she wants to call a snap election in Feb/March - let us just assume this for now - IYO would her party let her do it?0 -
I've read The Road, I've got my tactics worked out already.Pulpstar said:
Are you planning to outrun the fatties ?Morris_Dancer said:The advantage of being skinny is that I won't be seen as a walking feast when the food runs out.
0 -
Mr. Brooke, oh no.
I'll be around. In the shadows. Just waiting for the human hippos to plod into view. And before you can say "It's been days since I had a burger" I'll strike!
Or I would, if I didn't have an invincible army of giant land-walking superfish to handle that sort of business.
Mr. Pulpstar, the joy of the obesity epidemic is that a brisk walk will do.0 -
Betting, for all its disadvantages, does provide a benchmark as to what one honestly thought at a given moment. It's difficult to state that one thought X at time T if one betted on Y at the same time. This is why I explain why I bet when I bet. My outstanding bet was intended to insulate me against no deal. But if the government extend-and-no-deal then it does not payoff and I need to make other arrangements. So betting provides clarity: it gives you focus, it makes your commitment stronger...Big_G_NorthWales said:Yes you are right - but I do not bet
.... I shall stop now because I'm sounding like Palpatine. Have you heard the tale of Darth Brexit the Stupid. ... 0 -
If cold hard cash is good enough for Northern Ireland, it's good enough for Bassetlaw.Streeter said:
The fact that future funding may only be coming from the U.K. government as a political sweetener shows the value of a rationale Europe-wide system based on objective need.TheAncientMariner said:
They know that it came originally from UK taxpayers - isn't that the whole point.rottenborough said:John Mann wants funding for his community.
I stand to be corrected but EU ERDF is pumping money into his community already. It certainly was in the 2000s.
No doubt all his Leave voters paid no attention to where the money for new roads, community centres, industrial units, training centres etc etc came from.
Brexit is casting us back 40 years to the disgusting world of pork barrellism.0 -
Your tactics sound all well and good till the local rugby team gets hungry !Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, oh no.
I'll be around. In the shadows. Just waiting for the human hippos to plod into view. And before you can say "It's been days since I had a burger" I'll strike!
Or I would, if I didn't have an invincible army of giant land-walking superfish to handle that sort of business.
Mr. Pulpstar, the joy of the obesity epidemic is that a brisk walk will do.0 -
get to the back of the line, we were here firstPulpstar said:
If cold hard cash is good enough for Northern Ireland, it's good enough for Bassetlaw.Streeter said:
The fact that future funding may only be coming from the U.K. government as a political sweetener shows the value of a rationale Europe-wide system based on objective need.TheAncientMariner said:
They know that it came originally from UK taxpayers - isn't that the whole point.rottenborough said:John Mann wants funding for his community.
I stand to be corrected but EU ERDF is pumping money into his community already. It certainly was in the 2000s.
No doubt all his Leave voters paid no attention to where the money for new roads, community centres, industrial units, training centres etc etc came from.
Brexit is casting us back 40 years to the disgusting world of pork barrellism.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, a prop forward stands no hope of victory against an enormo-haddock.0
-
good plan except that hippos can outrun people !Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, oh no.
I'll be around. In the shadows. Just waiting for the human hippos to plod into view. And before you can say "It's been days since I had a burger" I'll strike!
Or I would, if I didn't have an invincible army of giant land-walking superfish to handle that sort of business.
Mr. Pulpstar, the joy of the obesity epidemic is that a brisk walk will do.0 -
I thought it was toilet paper ...Pulpstar said:
It'll be bread, it's always bloody bread that gets cleared off the shelves whenever there is a panic buy due to snow, brexit or whatever in this country !Benpointer said:
Surely everything you have already bought with a sell-by date after March will in reality be fine this time next year?rottenborough said:
Latest seems to be that No Deal will switch to June, rather than end of March, as May fiddles around with some kind of nonsense extension.Beverley_C said:
Yes. I am expecting No Deal. I have never lived in a failing State before so should it should be interesting. Our very own Venezuela and without Corbyn being elected.Nigel_Foremain said:
Interesting anecdote. As a result of Brexit some of "the rich" will get poorer, but we can be sure that the poor will definitely get poorer. They will be the ones that suffer. Immigration will probably not come down, though as you say, it will be non-Europeans who will make up the numbers.rural_voter said:
My car maintenance man for the last 27 years and his entire family voted to leave becauseEl_Capitano said:
I think it's usually in the context of throwing a common Leave argument back at Leavers, isn't it? Rather than actually espousing any particular belief in sovereignty per se.Pulpstar said:
Hmm, plenty on social media whenever the Gov't is defeated about "parliamentary sovereignty" re Brexit; less so when the Gov't is winning. Any ideas on that ?El_Capitano said:Slackbladder said:
Generally the malaise is a lack of "agency" (horrible sociological word, but there we go). People of all ages believe they don't have control over their own lives. The difference is that older people are more likely to blame this on the EU, and younger people on capitalism or some ill-formed concept of it.
'whoever we vote for, nothing changes; all that happens is that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer'.
Not a lot in there about sovereignty, immigration or even the EU. More about the after-effects of Thatcher and the lack of fair voting aka PR in Westminster elections.
Meanwhile a neighbour of a friend voted that way to, ahem, 'send the darkies home'. But there aren't many of them on the English-Welsh border and cutting down EU immigration might increase the numbers.
Who could ever have imagined that?
I now need to check the sell-by dates on a whole load of stockpiled food that was ready for March.
It's not as if it's going to be strawberries is it?0 -
I think we share a similar view on thisNorthofStoke said:
I agree. If a Norway solution is adopted then it might even garner a temporary majority in opinion polls (same with the official LP position in so far as it can be interpreted as something meaningful). However, once the public started to understand it properly they would be livid. Most of the benefits of the EU, a few negatives removed but most negatives amplified a thousandfold due to having no political representation. Remain or May's deal are the only sane alternatives. Crash out is reckless but has a logical consistency and may lead to a rapid accommodation but is too bloody risky. I voted remain and would love to reverse the referendum result if that could be done on a democratic basis without inflicting terrible cultural and political damage. Not sure that it can.Big_G_NorthWales said:
.....
The so called red lines reflected the referendum. A Norway style deal does not and we would be better to remain0 -
They don't have a message to sell the voters.kinabalu said:
Yes, but my sense is that he prefers to just keep opposing the 'tory brexit'.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn has the opportunity of causing chaos by abstaining on the next vote with some of his mps voting for, the vote passes and ERG and the DUP face decision time to collapse the government
Can we please revisit that question I had for you. As below -
IF Mrs May decides that she wants to call a snap election in Feb/March - let us just assume this for now - IYO would her party let her do it?
They don't have a pollster.
They don't have the funds.
They don't have most of their leafletters and canvassers on side.
What's to stop her?0 -
Nothing very controversial there.Scott_P said:0 -
And they still don't have a Social Care funding policy.MarqueeMark said:
They don't have a message to sell the voters.kinabalu said:
Yes, but my sense is that he prefers to just keep opposing the 'tory brexit'.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn has the opportunity of causing chaos by abstaining on the next vote with some of his mps voting for, the vote passes and ERG and the DUP face decision time to collapse the government
Can we please revisit that question I had for you. As below -
IF Mrs May decides that she wants to call a snap election in Feb/March - let us just assume this for now - IYO would her party let her do it?
They don't have a pollster.
They don't have the funds.
They don't have most of their leafletters and canvassers on side.
What's to stop her?
Should that just happen to come up...0 -
I cannot see her even going there unless forced by circumstances - so possible but unlikely and needs a two third majority of mps to pass it = 433kinabalu said:
Yes, but my sense is that he prefers to just keep opposing the 'tory brexit'.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn has the opportunity of causing chaos by abstaining on the next vote with some of his mps voting for, the vote passes and ERG and the DUP face decision time to collapse the government
Can we please revisit that question I had for you. As below -
IF Mrs May decides that she wants to call a snap election in Feb/March - let us just assume this for now - IYO would her party let her do it?0 -
The 2019 Manifesto would be the 2017 Manifesto, but with the snappy new titlerottenborough said:
And they still don't have a Social Care funding policy.MarqueeMark said:
They don't have a message to sell the voters.kinabalu said:
Yes, but my sense is that he prefers to just keep opposing the 'tory brexit'.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn has the opportunity of causing chaos by abstaining on the next vote with some of his mps voting for, the vote passes and ERG and the DUP face decision time to collapse the government
Can we please revisit that question I had for you. As below -
IF Mrs May decides that she wants to call a snap election in Feb/March - let us just assume this for now - IYO would her party let her do it?
They don't have a pollster.
They don't have the funds.
They don't have most of their leafletters and canvassers on side.
What's to stop her?
Should that just happen to come up...
"Nothing has changed"......0 -
I support the Deal and have done so since it was announced so not quite sure what you are getting at.Beverley_C said:
The big trouble is that all 3 of these options are equally damaged. Attempting a fair weighing:
No Deal
+ Technically delivers the referendum, is the default, some mentions in the campaign that 'we'd 'be OK'
- If you could fairly assess the Leave campaign in the round this was an option they clearly rejected and so any attempt to implement represents 'false manifesto' (note: in a proper weighing Remainer warnings are much less relevant than what the Leave campaign themselves said), most extreme version of Brexit not justified by narrow victory margin, (lastly) the risks themselves
May Deal
+ Represents the first phase of a true and fair delivery of the promises of the Leave campaign as a whole (even if not Richard Tyndall's version of it)
- awkward conditionality included to deliver the above, overwhelming rejection by leave campaign leaders
Remain:
- Lost the referendum and I accept a reasonable expectation in normal circumstances that the referendum should be implemented
+ Brought back into play by Leavers trashing all available leave options, retains some credibility given narrowness of margin and enough reasonable doubt over foreign interference (for the record, I think the victory was genuine but carries some doubt)
On any dispassionate assessment, all 3 have the right to be at the table. I hate that I come to that view on No Deal, which I oppose vehemently, but there you go0 -
Betting has evolved beyond anything I understood when I put 6 pence on the grand national in my early teens. Indeed that was my one and only bet as I lost my 6 penceviewcode said:
Betting, for all its disadvantages, does provide a benchmark as to what one honestly thought at a given moment. It's difficult to state that one thought X at time T if one betted on Y at the same time. This is why I explain why I bet when I bet. My outstanding bet was intended to insulate me against no deal. But if the government extend-and-no-deal then it does not payoff and I need to make other arrangements. So betting provides clarity: it gives you focus, it makes your commitment stronger...Big_G_NorthWales said:Yes you are right - but I do not bet
.... I shall stop now because I'm sounding like Palpatine. Have you heard the tale of Darth Brexit the Stupid. ...
Mind you, I would see friends of mine at the golf club over the years pour money into the one arm bandit and became obsessed. I came to the conclusion that if you do not start in the first place you will not be caught up in the obsession0 -
Yes, I realize it's a Plan Z!MarqueeMark said:They don't have a message to sell the voters.
They don't have a pollster.
They don't have the funds.
They don't have most of their leafletters and canvassers on side.
What's to stop her?
But, if she is utterly cornered - cannot get anything through, so it's No Deal or No Brexit.
And faced with this she says to her party "I want to go to the country."
IYO, do they FORBID it?0 -
Cheer up old chap. You wait till you’re led by Raab/Mogg/Davis. This will look like a golden age for your party, much like the Ed Milliband era is for Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think we are likely to end up with Corbyn in all scenarios.Peter_the_Punter said:
Richard, is May's Deal really best for the Party?Richard_Nabavi said:
They (we, for the moment!) are in desperate strategic trouble whatever happens. Obviously the worst for the country and therefore the party would be crashing out with no deal. A long delay or second referendum would be the second worst. The least bad for the country, and therefore for the party, would be to leave with the deal.Pulpstar said:The Tories could be in desperate strategic trouble if Labour backbench (Stringer, Flint, Mann etc) votes are used eventually to get the WA through and the backstop is not to the DUP's liking - could be absolubtely friendless in parliament at a subsequent GE.
I assume it would carry with the backstop, so the DUP would jump ship. That probably leads to a VONC and a GE.
Sure the Party would be ok with that? Sure we don't wind up with Venezuela as well as Brexit?
Under a no-deal crash out, we first have a period of utter chaos for which the Tories will be blamed for a generation (and justifiably so even though others like Corbyn and the Labour centrists should by rights also share the blame). The party itself might well split in that scenario - there is no way that sensible MPs like Phil Hammond, Amber Rudd, Richard Harrington etc are going to want to associate themselves with the disaster.
Cancelling Brexit or holding a referendum is also extremely problematic. In party terms it is hard to see how any leader proposing it could survive, but even if that weren't an issue it would represent the complete rejection of a policy around which the whole party united in 2016. 'Trust us, we brought you a clusterf*k which the country only narrowly escaped, and even then at the cost of irreversible damage', is not an election-winning message for a party which, when I joined it, prided itself on pragmatism, economic competence, and avoidance of ideological extremism.
If the deal can be agreed, then at least we'll have delivered a workable form of Brexit which doesn't trash the economy too badly, and which could eventually be the basis for a reasonable settlement. Given the current bad place the country and the party are in, that's as good as we're going to get. We might even avoid the second disaster of Corbyn, if the Conservatives can remember they need to be united, although at the moment that's looking somewhat implausible.0 -
Fair point.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Betting has evolved beyond anything I understood when I put 6 pence on the grand national in my early teens. Indeed that was my one and only bet as I lost my 6 penceviewcode said:
Betting, for all its disadvantages, does provide a benchmark as to what one honestly thought at a given moment. It's difficult to state that one thought X at time T if one betted on Y at the same time. This is why I explain why I bet when I bet. My outstanding bet was intended to insulate me against no deal. But if the government extend-and-no-deal then it does not payoff and I need to make other arrangements. So betting provides clarity: it gives you focus, it makes your commitment stronger...Big_G_NorthWales said:Yes you are right - but I do not bet
.... I shall stop now because I'm sounding like Palpatine. Have you heard the tale of Darth Brexit the Stupid. ...
Mind you, I would see friends of mine at the golf club over the years pour money into the one arm bandit and became obsessed. I came to the conclusion that if you do not start in the first place you will not be caught up in the obsession0 -
How many empty airports have been built in Spain?Streeter said:
The fact that future funding may only be coming from the U.K. government as a political sweetener shows the value of a rationale Europe-wide system based on objective need.TheAncientMariner said:
They know that it came originally from UK taxpayers - isn't that the whole point.rottenborough said:John Mann wants funding for his community.
I stand to be corrected but EU ERDF is pumping money into his community already. It certainly was in the 2000s.
No doubt all his Leave voters paid no attention to where the money for new roads, community centres, industrial units, training centres etc etc came from.
Brexit is casting us back 40 years to the disgusting world of pork barrellism.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-335789490 -
Well 'forced by circumstances' would accurately describe the scenario I have in mind - she cannot get a deal through and is faced with either allowing a disastrous (for the country) crash out or a deeply traumatic (for the tory party) 2nd ref/revoke of brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:I cannot see her even going there unless forced by circumstances - so possible but unlikely and needs a two third majority of mps to pass it = 433
But OK, thanks for feedback. Everything seems unlikely, let's face it. That's the beauty of this as a puzzle.0 -
It would be a cabinet decisionkinabalu said:
Yes, I realize it's a Plan Z!MarqueeMark said:They don't have a message to sell the voters.
They don't have a pollster.
They don't have the funds.
They don't have most of their leafletters and canvassers on side.
What's to stop her?
But, if she is utterly cornered - cannot get anything through, so it's No Deal or No Brexit.
And faced with this she says to her party "I want to go to the country."
IYO, do they FORBID it?0 -
-
:-)rottenborough said:And they still don't have a Social Care funding policy.
Should that just happen to come up...
Can't see them making that mistake again.
Excellent policy, the Dementia Tax, in my opinion. It was the presentation that was poor.0 -
Clearly you lack even the most basic understanding of the Norway option.NorthofStoke said:
I agree. If a Norway solution is adopted then it might even garner a temporary majority in opinion polls (same with the official LP position in so far as it can be interpreted as something meaningful). However, once the public started to understand it properly they would be livid. Most of the benefits of the EU, a few negatives removed but most negatives amplified a thousandfold due to having no political representation. Remain or May's deal are the only sane alternatives. Crash out is reckless but has a logical consistency and may lead to a rapid accommodation but is too bloody risky. I voted remain and would love to reverse the referendum result if that could be done on a democratic basis without inflicting terrible cultural and political damage. Not sure that it can.Big_G_NorthWales said:
.....
The so called red lines reflected the referendum. A Norway style deal does not and we would be better to remain0 -
In which case...no consensus would be reached till 2022. Problem sorted.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It would be a cabinet decisionkinabalu said:
Yes, I realize it's a Plan Z!MarqueeMark said:They don't have a message to sell the voters.
They don't have a pollster.
They don't have the funds.
They don't have most of their leafletters and canvassers on side.
What's to stop her?
But, if she is utterly cornered - cannot get anything through, so it's No Deal or No Brexit.
And faced with this she says to her party "I want to go to the country."
IYO, do they FORBID it?0 -
I hope no one thinks I am self righteous by the way.viewcode said:
Fair point.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Betting has evolved beyond anything I understood when I put 6 pence on the grand national in my early teens. Indeed that was my one and only bet as I lost my 6 penceviewcode said:
Betting, for all its disadvantages, does provide a benchmark as to what one honestly thought at a given moment. It's difficult to state that one thought X at time T if one betted on Y at the same time. This is why I explain why I bet when I bet. My outstanding bet was intended to insulate me against no deal. But if the government extend-and-no-deal then it does not payoff and I need to make other arrangements. So betting provides clarity: it gives you focus, it makes your commitment stronger...Big_G_NorthWales said:Yes you are right - but I do not bet
.... I shall stop now because I'm sounding like Palpatine. Have you heard the tale of Darth Brexit the Stupid. ...
Mind you, I would see friends of mine at the golf club over the years pour money into the one arm bandit and became obsessed. I came to the conclusion that if you do not start in the first place you will not be caught up in the obsession
I suppose I have always been wary of gambling because I may have become addicted to it0 -
You can't defeat raw emotion with facts. Different sides of the brain with minimal crossover. The left always try and tag a word onto a tax 'bedroom tax', 'poll tax', 'pasty tax', 'dementia tax' etc.kinabalu said:
:-)rottenborough said:And they still don't have a Social Care funding policy.
Should that just happen to come up...
Can't see them making that mistake again.
Excellent policy, the Dementia Tax, in my opinion. It was the presentation that was poor.
Of course when Mr Trump appropriated the tactic in the 2016 Presidential campaign 'Crooked Hillary' the left went spare.0 -
Mind you the amount of snow on our mountains locally has caused the mountain rescue to call a stop to all climbers or walkers, so maybe safe from Theresa going for a walk again here in North Wales for nowdixiedean said:
In which case...no consensus would be reached till 2022. Problem sorted.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It would be a cabinet decisionkinabalu said:
Yes, I realize it's a Plan Z!MarqueeMark said:They don't have a message to sell the voters.
They don't have a pollster.
They don't have the funds.
They don't have most of their leafletters and canvassers on side.
What's to stop her?
But, if she is utterly cornered - cannot get anything through, so it's No Deal or No Brexit.
And faced with this she says to her party "I want to go to the country."
IYO, do they FORBID it?0 -
-
Right. So I wonder if they would forbid it. I'm keen to gain insight into this because I'm weighing up a bet.Big_G_NorthWales said:It would be a cabinet decision
Very different to last time, I guess, when she presented it as fait accompli. because she's a diminished figure now.0 -
I think I see the problem...TheAncientMariner said:
How many empty airports have been built in Spain?Streeter said:
The fact that future funding may only be coming from the U.K. government as a political sweetener shows the value of a rationale Europe-wide system based on objective need.TheAncientMariner said:
They know that it came originally from UK taxpayers - isn't that the whole point.rottenborough said:John Mann wants funding for his community.
I stand to be corrected but EU ERDF is pumping money into his community already. It certainly was in the 2000s.
No doubt all his Leave voters paid no attention to where the money for new roads, community centres, industrial units, training centres etc etc came from.
Brexit is casting us back 40 years to the disgusting world of pork barrellism.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33578949
Ciudad Real airport, located 235km (146 miles) south of Madrid, was meant to be an alternative to Madrid's Barajas airport.0 -
Sitting targetMarqueeMark said:
The 2019 Manifesto would be the 2017 Manifesto, but with the snappy new titlerottenborough said:
And they still don't have a Social Care funding policy.MarqueeMark said:
They don't have a message to sell the voters.kinabalu said:
Yes, but my sense is that he prefers to just keep opposing the 'tory brexit'.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn has the opportunity of causing chaos by abstaining on the next vote with some of his mps voting for, the vote passes and ERG and the DUP face decision time to collapse the government
Can we please revisit that question I had for you. As below -
IF Mrs May decides that she wants to call a snap election in Feb/March - let us just assume this for now - IYO would her party let her do it?
They don't have a pollster.
They don't have the funds.
They don't have most of their leafletters and canvassers on side.
What's to stop her?
Should that just happen to come up...
"Nothing has changed"......
Sitting waiting
Anticipating
Nothing
Nothing
Life
Is full of surprises
It advertises
Nothing
Nothing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR2E4Is_6oE
0 -
It cannot be ruled out but probably the least likely option , certainly before the end of marchkinabalu said:
Right. So I wonder if they would forbid it. I'm keen to gain insight into this because I'm weighing up a bet.Big_G_NorthWales said:It would be a cabinet decision
Very different to last time, I guess, when she presented it as fait accompli. because she's a diminished figure now.0 -
Sounds like a perfect Ryanair destination...RobD said:
I think I see the problem...TheAncientMariner said:
How many empty airports have been built in Spain?Streeter said:
The fact that future funding may only be coming from the U.K. government as a political sweetener shows the value of a rationale Europe-wide system based on objective need.TheAncientMariner said:
They know that it came originally from UK taxpayers - isn't that the whole point.rottenborough said:John Mann wants funding for his community.
I stand to be corrected but EU ERDF is pumping money into his community already. It certainly was in the 2000s.
No doubt all his Leave voters paid no attention to where the money for new roads, community centres, industrial units, training centres etc etc came from.
Brexit is casting us back 40 years to the disgusting world of pork barrellism.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33578949
Ciudad Real airport, located 235km (146 miles) south of Madrid, was meant to be an alternative to Madrid's Barajas airport.0 -
Everything's out of sync. The first time Labour look like a nailed on certainty we've got Corbyn and the worst shadow cabinet ever. The first time the Tories should have been a realistic alternative they own Brexit which will destroy them for years.Jonathan said:
Cheer up old chap. You wait till you’re led by Raab/Mogg/Davis. This will look like a golden age for your party, much like the Ed Milliband era is for Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think we are likely to end up with Corbyn in all scenarios.Peter_the_Punter said:
Richard, is May's Deal really best for the Party?Richard_Nabavi said:
. A long delay or second referendum would be the second worst. The least bad for the country, and therefore for the party, would be to leave with the deal.Pulpstar said:The Tories could be in desperate strategic trouble if Labour backbench (Stringer, Flint, Mann etc) votes are used eventually to get the WA through and the backstop is not to the DUP's liking - could be absolubtely friendless in parliament at a subsequent GE.
I assume it would carry with the backstop, so the DUP would jump ship. That probably leads to a VONC and a GE.
Sure the Party would be ok with that? Sure we don't wind up with Venezuela as well as Brexit?
Under a no-deal crash out, we first have a period of utter chaos for which the Tories will be blamed for a generation (and justifiably so even though others like Corbyn and the Labour centrists should by rights also share the blame). The party itself might well split in that scenario - there is no way that sensible MPs like Phil Hammond, Amber Rudd, Richard Harrington etc are going to want to associate themselves with the disaster.
Cancelling Brexit or holding a referendum is also extremely problematic. In party terms it is hard to see how any leader proposing it could survive, but even if that weren't an issue it would represent the complete rejection of a policy around which the whole party united in 2016. 'Trust us, we brought you a clusterf*k which the country only narrowly escaped, and even then at the cost of irreversible damage', is not an election-winning message for a party which, when I joined it, prided itself on pragmatism, economic competence, and avoidance of ideological extremism.
If the deal can be agreed, then at least we'll have delivered a workable form of Brexit which doesn't trash the economy too badly, and which could eventually be the basis for a reasonable settlement. Given the current bad place the country and the party are in, that's as good as we're going to get. We might even avoid the second disaster of Corbyn, if the Conservatives can remember they need to be united, although at the moment that's looking somewhat implausible.0 -
'Crooked Hillary' was a personal slur. I wouldn't equate that with sticking 'tax' onto something.TheAncientMariner said:You can't defeat raw emotion with facts. Different sides of the brain with minimal crossover. The left always try and tag a word onto a tax 'bedroom tax', 'poll tax', 'pasty tax', 'dementia tax' etc.
Of course when Mr Trump appropriated the tactic in the 2016 Presidential campaign 'Crooked Hillary' the left went spare.
And it is not the preserve of the Left. Remember Andy Burham's attempt at a social care funding policy? The Death Tax?
But, yes, I agree your general point - emotion beats facts. Brexit is a good example.0 -
Hmm... I think I spot a patternkinabalu said:
:-)rottenborough said:And they still don't have a Social Care funding policy.
Should that just happen to come up...
Can't see them making that mistake again.
Excellent policy, the Dementia Tax, in my opinion. It was the presentation that was poor.0 -
There's a case to be made for reversing England's batting order. Open with Anderson and Broad, followed by Curran, Foakes, Moen and having the two openers come in last.FrancisUrquhart said:Its a good job England bat deep.....
Worth a try?0 -
A decision that was no doubt made and discussed before the vote.Scott_P said:
Corbyn is truly as hard a Brexiteer as JRM or Tony Benn. If he wasn't party leader he'd have been actively campaigning for Brexit. Letting his mates do his bidding while pretending to three-line-whip for Remain options fits that perfectly.0 -
It’s all going to be absolutely fine. Everything is ok.Roger said:
Everything's out of sync. The first time Labour look like a nailed on certainty we've got Corbyn and the worst shadow cabinet ever. The first time the Tories should have been a realistic alternative they own Brexit which will destroy them for years.Jonathan said:
Cheer up old chap. You wait till you’re led by Raab/Mogg/Davis. This will look like a golden age for your party, much like the Ed Milliband era is for Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think we are likely to end up with Corbyn in all scenarios.Peter_the_Punter said:
Richard, is May's Deal really best for the Party?Richard_Nabavi said:
. A long delay or second referendum would be the second worst. The least bad for the country, and therefore for the party, would be to leave with the deal.Pulpstar said:The Tories could be in desperate strategic trouble if Labour backbench (Stringer, Flint, Mann etc) votes are used eventually to get the WA through and the backstop is not to the DUP's liking - could be absolubtely friendless in parliament at a subsequent GE.
I assume it would carry with the backstop, so the DUP would jump ship. That probably leads to a VONC and a GE.
Sure the Party would be ok with that? Sure we don't wind up with Venezuela as well as Brexit?
Under a no-deal crash out, we first have a period of utter chaos for which the Tories will be blamed for a generation (and justifiably so even though others like Corbyn and the Labour centrists should by rights also share the blame).
Cancelling Brexit or holding a referendum is also extremely problematic. In party terms it is hard to see how any leader proposing it could survive, but even if that weren't an issue it would represent the complete rejection of a policy around which the whole party united in 2016. 'Trust us, we brought you a clusterf*k which the country only narrowly escaped, and even then at the cost of irreversible damage', is not an election-winning message for a party which, when I joined it, prided itself on pragmatism, economic competence, and avoidance of ideological extremism.
If the deal can be agreed, then at least we'll have delivered a workable form of Brexit which doesn't trash the economy too badly, and which could eventually be the basis for a reasonable settlement. Given the current bad place the country and the party are in, that's as good as we're going to get. We might even avoid the second disaster of Corbyn, if the Conservatives can remember they need to be united, although at the moment that's looking somewhat implausible.0 -
Off topic.
Does anyone agree with me that Liverpool's ground staff, at half time last night in their game with Leicester at 1-1, decision to sweep the snow and ice away from the penalty area they were kicking into in the second half ignoring Leicester's penalty area, was not just bad sportsmanship but desperate and verging on cheating0 -
Best of luck persuading Jimmy to face the new ball !Peter_the_Punter said:
There's a case to be made for reversing England's batting order. Open with Anderson and Broad, followed by Curran, Foakes, Moen and having the two openers come in last.FrancisUrquhart said:Its a good job England bat deep.....
Worth a try?0 -
Clearly you lack even the most basic understanding of the British public, who will not be convinced by dubious claims about EU rules really coming from on high at the UNECE or whatever nonsense you want to tell them.Richard_Tyndall said:
Clearly you lack even the most basic understanding of the Norway option.NorthofStoke said:
I agree. If a Norway solution is adopted then it might even garner a temporary majority in opinion polls (same with the official LP position in so far as it can be interpreted as something meaningful). However, once the public started to understand it properly they would be livid. Most of the benefits of the EU, a few negatives removed but most negatives amplified a thousandfold due to having no political representation. Remain or May's deal are the only sane alternatives. Crash out is reckless but has a logical consistency and may lead to a rapid accommodation but is too bloody risky. I voted remain and would love to reverse the referendum result if that could be done on a democratic basis without inflicting terrible cultural and political damage. Not sure that it can.Big_G_NorthWales said:
.....
The so called red lines reflected the referendum. A Norway style deal does not and we would be better to remain0 -
When I stayed at the same hotel as the England team in 2017 Jimmy was very confident in his own batting ability.Pulpstar said:
Best of luck persuading Jimmy to face the new ball !Peter_the_Punter said:
There's a case to be made for reversing England's batting order. Open with Anderson and Broad, followed by Curran, Foakes, Moen and having the two openers come in last.FrancisUrquhart said:Its a good job England bat deep.....
Worth a try?
They call him the Burnley Lara for a reason.0 -
I recommended that strategy on here - I presume they came up with it independently!Philip_Thompson said:
A decision that was no doubt made and discussed before the vote.Scott_P said:
Corbyn is truly as hard a Brexiteer as JRM or Tony Benn. If he wasn't party leader he'd have been actively campaigning for Brexit. Letting his mates do his bidding while pretending to three-line-whip for Remain options fits that perfectly.0 -
The Australians did it back in 1937 - the pitch was a sticky and Bradman sacrificed his tail enders while it dried out.Peter_the_Punter said:
There's a case to be made for reversing England's batting order. Open with Anderson and Broad, followed by Curran, Foakes, Moen and having the two openers come in last.FrancisUrquhart said:Its a good job England bat deep.....
Worth a try?
http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/17549/scorecard/62643/australia-vs-england-3rd-test-england-tour-of-australia-1936-370 -
I am not going to stake thousands based on that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It cannot be ruled out but probably the least likely option , certainly before the end of march
😊0 -
More than ever before politics is about which party people want to vote to keep out, as opposed to which one they want to vote to put in. Or that's how it seems to me, anyway.Roger said:Everything's out of sync. The first time Labour look like a nailed on certainty we've got Corbyn and the worst shadow cabinet ever. The first time the Tories should have been a realistic alternative they own Brexit which will destroy them for years.
0 -
He used to be a remarkably good nite watchman but seems to stick exclusively to the day job now.TheScreamingEagles said:
When I stayed at the same hotel as the England team in 2017 Jimmy was very confident in his own batting ability.Pulpstar said:
Best of luck persuading Jimmy to face the new ball !Peter_the_Punter said:
There's a case to be made for reversing England's batting order. Open with Anderson and Broad, followed by Curran, Foakes, Moen and having the two openers come in last.FrancisUrquhart said:Its a good job England bat deep.....
Worth a try?
They call him the Burnley Lara for a reason.0 -
I honestly don't remember a time it wasn't like that.Black_Rook said:
More than ever before politics is about which party people want to vote to keep out, as opposed to which one they want to vote to put in. Or that's how it seems to me, anyway.Roger said:Everything's out of sync. The first time Labour look like a nailed on certainty we've got Corbyn and the worst shadow cabinet ever. The first time the Tories should have been a realistic alternative they own Brexit which will destroy them for years.
0 -
He holds the third highest test score by a number 11.Peter_the_Punter said:
He used to be a remarkably good nite watchman but seems to stick exclusively to the day job now.TheScreamingEagles said:
When I stayed at the same hotel as the England team in 2017 Jimmy was very confident in his own batting ability.Pulpstar said:
Best of luck persuading Jimmy to face the new ball !Peter_the_Punter said:
There's a case to be made for reversing England's batting order. Open with Anderson and Broad, followed by Curran, Foakes, Moen and having the two openers come in last.FrancisUrquhart said:Its a good job England bat deep.....
Worth a try?
They call him the Burnley Lara for a reason.
He would have scored a century but a for a lunch break.0 -
Fred Trueman used to tell bowlers "Remember - I've still to bowl at you mate!"Pulpstar said:
Best of luck persuading Jimmy to face the new ball !Peter_the_Punter said:
There's a case to be made for reversing England's batting order. Open with Anderson and Broad, followed by Curran, Foakes, Moen and having the two openers come in last.FrancisUrquhart said:Its a good job England bat deep.....
Worth a try?0 -
In American political betting news I think the Howard Schultz presidential run is stupid enough and serious enough that I would advise exiting any Presidential Election result markets.
If he follows through we could see Trump win an actual real landslide with 40 percent of the vote.0 -
https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-domaindev-st_emea&hsimp=yhs-st_emea&hspart=domaindev&p=lucy+in+the+sky+with+diamonds#id=1&vid=bca91cae1af377c452f726793fdd30fc&action=clickJonathan said:
It’s all going to be absolutely fine. Everything is ok.Roger said:
Everything's out of sync. The first time Labour look like a nailed on certainty we've got Corbyn and the worst shadow cabinet ever. The first time the Tories should have been a realistic alternative they own Brexit which will destroy them for years.Jonathan said:
Cheer up old chap. You wait till you’re led by Raab/Mogg/Davis. This will look like a golden age for your party, much like the Ed Milliband era is for Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think we are likely to end up with Corbyn in all scenarios.Peter_the_Punter said:
Richard, is May's Deal really best for the Party?Richard_Nabavi said:
. A long delay or second referendum would be the second worst. The least bad for the country, and therefore for the party, would be to leave with the deal.Pulpstar said:The Tories could be in desperate strategic trouble if Labour backbench - could be absolubtely friendless in parliament at a subsequent GE.
I assume it would carry with the backstop, so the DUP would jump ship. That probably leads to a VONC and a GE.
Sure the Party would be ok with that? Sure we don't wind up with Venezuela as well as Brexit?
Under a no-deal crash out, we first have a period of utter chaos for which the Tories will be blamed for a generation (and justifiably so even though others like Corbyn and the Labour centrists should by rights also share the blame).
Cancelling Brexit or holding a referendum is also extremely problematic. In party terms it is hard to see how any leader proposing it could survive, but even if that weren't an issue it would represent the complete rejection of a policy around which the whole party united in 2016. 'Trust us, we brought you a clusterf*k which the country only narrowly escaped, and even then at the cost of irreversible damage', is not an election-winning message for a party which, when I joined it, prided itself on pragmatism, economic competence, and avoidance of ideological extremism.
If the deal can be agreed, then at least we'll have delivered a workable form of Brexit which doesn't trash the economy too badly, and which could eventually be the basis for a reasonable settlement. Given the current bad place the country and the party are in, that's as good as we're going to get. We might even avoid the second disaster of Corbyn, if the Conservatives can remember they need to be united, although at the moment that's looking somewhat implausible.0 -
Perhaps it's all about lulling the Aussies into a false sense of security?0
