* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
In American political betting news I think the Howard Schultz presidential run is stupid enough and serious enough that I would advise exiting any Presidential Election result markets.
If he follows through we could see Trump win an actual real landslide with 40 percent of the vote.
Perhaps Schultz is a genius. He's heard Mike Bloomberg is willing to deploy his cash to help prevent Trump's reelection and sees an opportunity to double his net worth by demanding a lump sum not to run.
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Nah, the Tory will not be able to survive a general election campaign that focuses on Brexit.
In American political betting news I think the Howard Schultz presidential run is stupid enough and serious enough that I would advise exiting any Presidential Election result markets.
If he follows through we could see Trump win an actual real landslide with 40 percent of the vote.
Last time a first-term Republican incumbent faced a serious third-party opponent it didn't exactly hurt the Democrats did it?
In American political betting news I think the Howard Schultz presidential run is stupid enough and serious enough that I would advise exiting any Presidential Election result markets.
If he follows through we could see Trump win an actual real landslide with 40 percent of the vote.
Last time a first-term Republican incumbent faced a serious third-party opponent it didn't exactly hurt the Democrats did it?
That is true, however Schultz is squarely trying to take the Democratic vote, his socially Liberal positioning is poison to far too much of the Republican base.
His entire series of interviews so far have been "Boo Donald Trump, Boo Dem economic policy". He's trying to grab a chunk of the "centrist" vote that was squarely in the Dem corner on the basis of the mid terms.
And the exit pollingnon Perot suggested he drew equally for the Rep and Dem vote. But 2020 is a very different time electoral base speaking from 1992
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Scenaro 2:
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament votes down May's deal by an even bigger majority and we head towards the cliff edge * The Tory party fractures with the moderate wing calling for revocation * Corbyn calls for unity to face down the EU and outriders talk about threatening to use Trident against the capitalist oppressor * Snap election: Labour whips up a patriotic fervour and rides to a landslide majority
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Scenaro 2:
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament votes down May's deal by an even bigger majority and we head towards the cliff edge * The Tory party fractures with the moderate wing calling for revocation * Corbyn calls for unity to face down the EU and outriders talk about threatening to use Trident against the capitalist oppressor * Snap election: Labour whips up a patriotic fervour and rides to a landslide majority
Zero chance. Corbyn won't dare call to face down the EU, he's far too cynical, dishonest and Macchiavellian for that. He'll slam the Tories for failing to reach an agreement while subtly trying to sabotage any potential agreement but maintaining plausible deniability for his base to believe he is against Brexit/the EU depending upon what those backing him personally think.
Everything's out of sync. The first time Labour look like a nailed on certainty we've got Corbyn and the worst shadow cabinet ever. The first time the Tories should have been a realistic alternative they own Brexit which will destroy them for years.
More than ever before politics is about which party people want to vote to keep out, as opposed to which one they want to vote to put in. Or that's how it seems to me, anyway.
There seem to be a lot more floating voters than usual. If I remember only about 10% would change their vote. I'd be curious to know what party loyaly is now.
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
Delivering Brexit compared to winning WW2 - amazing!
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
She's learnt from history and plans to lose Brexit to avoid the same fate.
In American political betting news I think the Howard Schultz presidential run is stupid enough and serious enough that I would advise exiting any Presidential Election result markets.
If he follows through we could see Trump win an actual real landslide with 40 percent of the vote.
Last time a first-term Republican incumbent faced a serious third-party opponent it didn't exactly hurt the Democrats did it?
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Totally.
Or no GE and she steps down in favour of Gove in 2021.
Or the GE is pre Brexit and she wins and then goes on and on and on.
In American political betting news I think the Howard Schultz presidential run is stupid enough and serious enough that I would advise exiting any Presidential Election result markets.
If he follows through we could see Trump win an actual real landslide with 40 percent of the vote.
Last time a first-term Republican incumbent faced a serious third-party opponent it didn't exactly hurt the Democrats did it?
Sculz is more likely to hurt the Democrats.
Not necessarily. The way he’s started, I don’t think he’d get much more than 1% of the vote. I don’t think he’ll run now - though a couple of hundred million dollars in running expenses isn’t an issue to the Bloombergs and Schulzes. Public humiliation, on the other hand....
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
Delivering Brexit compared to winning WW2 - amazing!
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
Delivering Brexit compared to winning WW2 - amazing!
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
Delivering Brexit compared to winning WW2 - amazing!
Not if you read and comprehended my post
The point has gone so far over his head its now in low earth orbit.
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
Delivering Brexit compared to winning WW2 - amazing!
I don’t know; WW2 did bugger the economy.
Sigh. Even @williamglenn figured out the reference was to Attlee’s triumph in 1945.
Churchill delivered on his ministry’s sole objective but got zero credit from an electorate that was focused on the vision of that Attlee offered. In the same way, in a post Brexit scenario, May may not get the credit she expects...
There's a case to be made for reversing England's batting order. Open with Anderson and Broad, followed by Curran, Foakes, Moen and having the two openers come in last.
Worth a try?
Best of luck persuading Jimmy to face the new ball !
Fred Trueman used to tell bowlers "Remember - I've still to bowl at you mate!"
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
Delivering Brexit compared to winning WW2 - amazing!
I don’t know; WW2 did bugger the economy.
Sigh. Even @williamglenn figured out the reference was to Attlee’s triumph in 1945.
Churchill delivered on his ministry’s sole objective but got zero credit from an electorate that was focused on the vision of that Attlee offered. In the same way, in a post Brexit scenario, May may not get the credit she expects...
Your sense of humour seems to be absent this evening.
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
Delivering Brexit compared to winning WW2 - amazing!
Not if you read and comprehended my post
The point has gone so far over his head its now in low earth orbit.
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
Delivering Brexit compared to winning WW2 - amazing!
I don’t know; WW2 did bugger the economy.
Sigh. Even @williamglenn figured out the reference was to Attlee’s triumph in 1945.
Churchill delivered on his ministry’s sole objective but got zero credit from an electorate that was focused on the vision of that Attlee offered. In the same way, in a post Brexit scenario, May may not get the credit she expects...
Your sense of humour seems to be absent this evening.
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
She's learnt from history and plans to lose Brexit to avoid the same fate.
Winning with the help of the Russians never turns out well.
1. Eu says No 2. May puts her original deal to parliament 3. Parliament says No ... 1,000,000,000 Sun expands to engulf Earth 1,000,000,001 May tries once again, asks charred remains to consider her deal
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
Delivering Brexit compared to winning WW2 - amazing!
I don’t know; WW2 did bugger the economy.
Sigh. Even @williamglenn figured out the reference was to Attlee’s triumph in 1945.
Churchill delivered on his ministry’s sole objective but got zero credit from an electorate that was focused on the vision of that Attlee offered. In the same way, in a post Brexit scenario, May may not get the credit she expects...
The electorate doesn't give credit (Major 1997 is another example) it looks to the future.
In American political betting news I think the Howard Schultz presidential run is stupid enough and serious enough that I would advise exiting any Presidential Election result markets.
If he follows through we could see Trump win an actual real landslide with 40 percent of the vote.
Last time a first-term Republican incumbent faced a serious third-party opponent it didn't exactly hurt the Democrats did it?
Indeed but Trump's disapproval rating is currently worse than that of any previous president at this stage of his presidency, that is he's in a worse position than all those who went on to lose. If Trump were to go on and win re-election from his current position it would defy history.
So Trump, clutching at straws, needs a black swan event. And Schultz provides him with the potential for one. Schultz may hurt the Democrats or he may hurt the Republicans or just turn out to be a damp squib and hurt neither. No-one really knows yet and that's the point. As Trump's well behind and until now well on course to lose the insertion of a bit of unpredictability is what he needs.
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Totally.
Or no GE and she steps down in favour of Gove in 2021.
Or the GE is pre Brexit and she wins and then goes on and on and on.
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
She's learnt from history and plans to lose Brexit to avoid the same fate.
As I recall, the losers of World War Two committed suicide.
I would not stake anything on anything to be honest
Got to pay the rent!
Then give your rent money to the landlord and not the bookies!
I know (hope) you're joking but gambling should only ever be done with money you can afford to lose and not money you need.
I think a headbanging WTO Brexiter saying something has gone over someone's head is really pretty funny. A concept wouldn't exactly need to be exactly stratospheric to get over yours matey!
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
Delivering Brexit compared to winning WW2 - amazing!
I don’t know; WW2 did bugger the economy.
Sigh. Even @williamglenn figured out the reference was to Attlee’s triumph in 1945.
Churchill delivered on his ministry’s sole objective but got zero credit from an electorate that was focused on the vision of that Attlee offered. In the same way, in a post Brexit scenario, May may not get the credit she expects...
Your sense of humour seems to be absent this evening.
Your comment was mildly amusing
I thought the reference to Winston’s KBO catchphrase tolerably so.
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Nah, the Tory will not be able to survive a general election campaign that focuses on Brexit.
There's no manifesto that unites the party.
Hmm, I am tempted to agree, but we have to remember that we are in strange times and Labour is led by one of the biggest dullards ever to have held the position of LOTO (IDS excepted), and he is the only LOTO to have ever held on to office despite losing a vote of no confidence from his parliamentary party. They are pretty fractured too.
Speaking of suicide, England's batsmen are the only humans more useless and indecisive in a crisis than the average MP.
At what point will Root be sacked as captain?
Let’s see how England bowl first. If they can exploit the uneven bounce it could still be a tight match, though out attack doesn’t have quite the West Indies’ pace.
Speaking of suicide, England's batsmen are the only humans more useless and indecisive in a crisis than the average MP.
At what point will Root be sacked as captain?
Let’s see how England bowl first. If they can exploit the uneven bounce it could still be a tight match, though out attack doesn’t have quite the West Indies’ pace.
The only way England would play a tight match is if you forced them to drink a bottle of Scotch each before the toss.
Speaking of suicide, England's batsmen are the only humans more useless and indecisive in a crisis than the average MP.
At what point will Root be sacked as captain?
Let’s see how England bowl first. If they can exploit the uneven bounce it could still be a tight match, though out attack doesn’t have quite the West Indies’ pace.
The only way England would play a tight match is if you forced them to drink a bottle of Scotch each before the toss.
I’ve never decided whether it’s perpetual optimism or perpetual pessimism that is the defining characteristic of the England supporter...
Speaking of suicide, England's batsmen are the only humans more useless and indecisive in a crisis than the average MP.
At what point will Root be sacked as captain?
Let’s see how England bowl first. If they can exploit the uneven bounce it could still be a tight match, though out attack doesn’t have quite the West Indies’ pace.
The only way England would play a tight match is if you forced them to drink a bottle of Scotch each before the toss.
I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand.
Speaking of suicide, England's batsmen are the only humans more useless and indecisive in a crisis than the average MP.
At what point will Root be sacked as captain?
Let’s see how England bowl first. If they can exploit the uneven bounce it could still be a tight match, though out attack doesn’t have quite the West Indies’ pace.
The only way England would play a tight match is if you forced them to drink a bottle of Scotch each before the toss.
I’ve never decided whether it’s perpetual optimism or perpetual pessimism that is the defining characteristic of the England supporter...
What's the difference between a pessimistic and optimistic England supporter?
I would not stake anything on anything to be honest
Got to pay the rent!
Then give your rent money to the landlord and not the bookies!
I know (hope) you're joking but gambling should only ever be done with money you can afford to lose and not money you need.
I think a headbanging WTO Brexiter saying something has gone over someone's head is really pretty funny. A concept wouldn't exactly need to be exactly stratospheric to get over yours matey!
I'm not a headbanging WTO Brexiteer. I have always said I hope and want an acceptable deal.
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
She's learnt from history and plans to lose Brexit to avoid the same fate.
As I recall, the losers of World War Two committed suicide.
Speaking of suicide, England's batsmen are the only humans more useless and indecisive in a crisis than the average MP.
At what point will Root be sacked as captain?
Let’s see how England bowl first. If they can exploit the uneven bounce it could still be a tight match, though out attack doesn’t have quite the West Indies’ pace.
The only way England would play a tight match is if you forced them to drink a bottle of Scotch each before the toss.
I’ve never decided whether it’s perpetual optimism or perpetual pessimism that is the defining characteristic of the England supporter...
What's the difference between a pessimistic and optimistic England supporter?
An optimist believes things cannot get worse.
The whisky idea is perhaps not a bad one - Brian Close was notoriously partial to it. And Gary Sobers admitted being drunk when scoring his final test 150...
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
She's learnt from history and plans to lose Brexit to avoid the same fate.
As I recall, the losers of World War Two committed suicide.
Hirohito lasted a bit didn't he (1989)? And Mussolini was shot by partisans.
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
She's learnt from history and plans to lose Brexit to avoid the same fate.
As I recall, the losers of World War Two committed suicide.
Except for Hirohito
Well, Mussolini as well technically. I mean, trying to run away and being captured and lynched by Partisans wasn't exactly suicide.
In American political betting news I think the Howard Schultz presidential run is stupid enough and serious enough that I would advise exiting any Presidential Election result markets.
If he follows through we could see Trump win an actual real landslide with 40 percent of the vote.
Last time a first-term Republican incumbent faced a serious third-party opponent it didn't exactly hurt the Democrats did it?
That is true, however Schultz is squarely trying to take the Democratic vote, his socially Liberal positioning is poison to far too much of the Republican base.
His entire series of interviews so far have been "Boo Donald Trump, Boo Dem economic policy". He's trying to grab a chunk of the "centrist" vote that was squarely in the Dem corner on the basis of the mid terms.
And the exit pollingnon Perot suggested he drew equally for the Rep and Dem vote. But 2020 is a very different time electoral base speaking from 1992
Schultz, a fiscal conservative, social liberal could win as many moderate Republicans as centrist Democrats, his ideal scenario is a Trump v Sanders contest but he still has little chance of winning any states
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop * Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension * The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support * Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017 * Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
Possible but also possible that, in their great wisdom, May gets rewarded by the voters for delivering Brexit in the same way Churchill was rewarded for winning WW2
She's learnt from history and plans to lose Brexit to avoid the same fate.
As I recall, the losers of World War Two committed suicide.
Hirohito lasted a bit didn't he (1989)? And Mussolini was shot by partisans.
British Gas used to negotiate the price for acquiring production from UK offshore gasfields. These negotiations were expected to go on for months, with teams on either side drawing out concessions of a tiny fraction of a penny per unit each time they met. On one occasion, at the first such meeting, the BG negotiator heard their opening proposal, sat back in his chair looking at his notes - and said "Yep, we can accept that."
He knew that rather than rejoicing that they had got the top price they never expected to achieve, the guys on the other side would instead forever be wondering how they had screwed up. "How did we offer so cheap a price that they jumped on it?"
They hadn't. What they didn't know was that he was retiring. And their proposal was within a range of acceptable outcomes. So he took it. And the thought of their continuing discomfort amused him.
Yes, the psychology of all this. An example that I think of - with these latest brexit 'negotiations' - is that you put your house up for sale, asking price £X.
1st buyer through the door, day 1, offers the full whack, £X. Are you over the moon? No, you think you must have undervalued it. So you reject that, up the asking price, and then spend weeks and months trying to achieve the new target. You fail and end up talking an offer that is no better than - and probably worse than - the one you originally turned down.
Is this how it will be with the Deal? Time will tell.
Unstupidly, that phenomenon has a name: stochastic programming.
If you have an infinite amount of options, each involving uncertainty, but only a finite amount of time and you don't know the distributions: how do you optimise the outcome? One approach goes like this:
* For an initial period, make as many choices as you can. Discard all of them. Note the best one. * For the next period, continue searching. When you find one that is as good as or better, select that one and stop playing. If you run out of time, pick the best remaining, even if it is inferior to the one you discarded.
This has several real-life applications, one of which you identified (houses) but perhaps the most interesting is mating: this is how humans choose their partners, and why many people have a yearning for a boy/girlfriend in their youth that "got away".
British Gas used to negotiate the price for acquiring production from UK offshore gasfields. These negotiations were expected to go on for months, with teams on either side drawing out concessions of a tiny fraction of a penny per unit each time they met. On one occasion, at the first such meeting, the BG negotiator heard their opening proposal, sat back in his chair looking at his notes - and said "Yep, we can accept that."
He knew that rather than rejoicing that they had got the top price they never expected to achieve, the guys on the other side would instead forever be wondering how they had screwed up. "How did we offer so cheap a price that they jumped on it?"
They hadn't. What they didn't know was that he was retiring. And their proposal was within a range of acceptable outcomes. So he took it. And the thought of their continuing discomfort amused him.
Yes, the psychology of all this. An example that I think of - with these latest brexit 'negotiations' - is that you put your house up for sale, asking price £X.
1st buyer through the door, day 1, offers the full whack, £X. Are you over the moon? No, you think you must have undervalued it. So you reject that, up the asking price, and then spend weeks and months trying to achieve the new target. You fail and end up talking an offer that is no better than - and probably worse than - the one you originally turned down.
Is this how it will be with the Deal? Time will tell.
Unstupidly, that phenomenon has a name: stochastic programming.
If you have an infinite amount of options, each involving uncertainty, but only a finite amount of time and you don't know the distributions: how do you optimise the outcome? One approach goes like this:
* For an initial period, make as many choices as you can. Discard all of them. Note the best one. * For the next period, continue searching. When you find one that is as good as or better, select that one and stop playing. If you run out of time, pick the best remaining, even if it is inferior to the one you discarded.
This has several real-life applications, one of which you identified (houses) but perhaps the most interesting is mating: this is how humans choose their partners, and why many people have a yearning for a boy/girlfriend in their youth that "got away".
I see the West Country has ground to a halt this evening.
I have actually been to points West: Exeter et al. Very pretty part of the world. Incredibly difficult to get to and not well served by things like buses. It's not resilient in harsh weather.
Schools should be “flexible” in what dinners they serve children in England if there are food shortages because of Brexit, the government has said as it warns local authorities to step up their no-deal planning.
Stockpiling across the country is intensifying as the clock ticks down to 29 March, with the private sector revealing plans to secure long-term supplies of everything from emergency trauma packs to soap and Magnum ice-cream.
And Kent Community Health NHS trust is exploring the option of asking health service staff to stay overnight in its hospitals to safeguard against traffic gridlock in the event of no deal.
A no-deal technical notice issued by the Department for Education to schools in England on Thursday was the latest in more than 80 already published.
I see the West Country has ground to a halt this evening.
I have actually been to points West: Exeter et al. Very pretty part of the world. Incredibly difficult to get to and not well served by things like buses. It's not resilient in harsh weather.
Every time there's an amber warning of snow for the area the A30 is closed by the snow. Why don't people learn?
Yes, the psychology of all this. An example that I think of - with these latest brexit 'negotiations' - is that you put your house up for sale, asking price £X.
1st buyer through the door, day 1, offers the full whack, £X. Are you over the moon? No, you think you must have undervalued it. So you reject that, up the asking price, and then spend weeks and months trying to achieve the new target. You fail and end up talking an offer that is no better than - and probably worse than - the one you originally turned down.
Is this how it will be with the Deal? Time will tell.
Unstupidly, that phenomenon has a name: stochastic programming.
If you have an infinite amount of options, each involving uncertainty, but only a finite amount of time and you don't know the distributions: how do you optimise the outcome? One approach goes like this:
* For an initial period, make as many choices as you can. Discard all of them. Note the best one. * For the next period, continue searching. When you find one that is as good as or better, select that one and stop playing. If you run out of time, pick the best remaining, even if it is inferior to the one you discarded.
This has several real-life applications, one of which you identified (houses) but perhaps the most interesting is mating: this is how humans choose their partners, and why many people have a yearning for a boy/girlfriend in their youth that "got away".
I definitely did learn something new. Thank you. And me an ex-computer programmer too...
It's the older version of the word "programming" that predates electronic computers: the one that describes a technique you can apply by moving thru a set of instruction steps, instead of the similar concept limited to computers. You can do it with pen and paper.
I see the West Country has ground to a halt this evening.
I have actually been to points West: Exeter et al. Very pretty part of the world. Incredibly difficult to get to and not well served by things like buses. It's not resilient in harsh weather.
Every time there's an amber warning of snow for the area the A30 is closed by the snow. Why don't people learn?
Presumably because it happens once a year and it's cheaper for everyone to take the economic hit. Not nice to be caught out by it, though.
I see the West Country has ground to a halt this evening.
I have actually been to points West: Exeter et al. Very pretty part of the world. Incredibly difficult to get to and not well served by things like buses. It's not resilient in harsh weather.
Every time there's an amber warning of snow for the area the A30 is closed by the snow. Why don't people learn?
One day we will stop talking about WW2. It has been time to move on for some time. It holds this country back.
It's okay to talk about WWII as long as we don't talk about it to the exclusion of everything else - such as the reasons why former subjects of the British Empire might not view it as fondly as many of us do.
I see the West Country has ground to a halt this evening.
I have actually been to points West: Exeter et al. Very pretty part of the world. Incredibly difficult to get to and not well served by things like buses. It's not resilient in harsh weather.
Every time there's an amber warning of snow for the area the A30 is closed by the snow. Why don't people learn?
Presumably because it happens once a year and it's cheaper for everyone to take the economic hit. Not nice to be caught out by it, though.
I'm not arguing for money to be spent keeping it open - people should adjust their travel plans and take an amber warning seriously though.
I see the West Country has ground to a halt this evening.
I have actually been to points West: Exeter et al. Very pretty part of the world. Incredibly difficult to get to and not well served by things like buses. It's not resilient in harsh weather.
Every time there's an amber warning of snow for the area the A30 is closed by the snow. Why don't people learn?
Presumably because it happens once a year and it's cheaper for everyone to take the economic hit. Not nice to be caught out by it, though.
I'm not arguing for money to be spent keeping it open - people should adjust their travel plans and take an amber warning seriously though.
I see. Yes, it's not like people weren't warned about this. And people are so bad at driving in the snow.
One day we will stop talking about WW2. It has been time to move on for some time. It holds this country back.
It's okay to talk about WWII as long as we don't talk about it to the exclusion of everything else - such as the reasons why former subjects of the British Empire might not view it as fondly as many of us do.
I see the West Country has ground to a halt this evening.
I have actually been to points West: Exeter et al. Very pretty part of the world. Incredibly difficult to get to and not well served by things like buses. It's not resilient in harsh weather.
Every time there's an amber warning of snow for the area the A30 is closed by the snow. Why don't people learn?
Presumably because it happens once a year and it's cheaper for everyone to take the economic hit. Not nice to be caught out by it, though.
I think it's beyond tedious that the UK doesn't cope with normal winter weather. Chicago suburban trains seem to be running even now
I see the West Country has ground to a halt this evening.
I have actually been to points West: Exeter et al. Very pretty part of the world. Incredibly difficult to get to and not well served by things like buses. It's not resilient in harsh weather.
Every time there's an amber warning of snow for the area the A30 is closed by the snow. Why don't people learn?
Presumably because it happens once a year and it's cheaper for everyone to take the economic hit. Not nice to be caught out by it, though.
I think it's beyond tedious that the UK doesn't cope with normal winter weather. Chicago suburban trains seem to be running even now
I see the West Country has ground to a halt this evening.
I have actually been to points West: Exeter et al. Very pretty part of the world. Incredibly difficult to get to and not well served by things like buses. It's not resilient in harsh weather.
Every time there's an amber warning of snow for the area the A30 is closed by the snow. Why don't people learn?
Maybe closing the A30 makes it snow.
Close it during summer heatwave. That should resolve your proper hoc post grasshopper hoc
Schools should be “flexible” in what dinners they serve children in England if there are food shortages because of Brexit, the government has said as it warns local authorities to step up their no-deal planning.
Stockpiling across the country is intensifying as the clock ticks down to 29 March, with the private sector revealing plans to secure long-term supplies of everything from emergency trauma packs to soap and Magnum ice-cream.
And Kent Community Health NHS trust is exploring the option of asking health service staff to stay overnight in its hospitals to safeguard against traffic gridlock in the event of no deal.
A no-deal technical notice issued by the Department for Education to schools in England on Thursday was the latest in more than 80 already published.
We have an additional freezer being delivered next week.
One day we will stop talking about WW2. It has been time to move on for some time. It holds this country back.
It's okay to talk about WWII as long as we don't talk about it to the exclusion of everything else - such as the reasons why former subjects of the British Empire might not view it as fondly as many of us do.
It seems to me that English winters especially can be hard on structures as they often hover around zero degrees Fahrenheit, so causing damage by much freezing and thawing.
I know someone who attended a Chicago area school even once or twice when the temperature reached minus 30 degrees Fahrenheit.
Personally I prefer heat, as we had this last Summer.
I see the West Country has ground to a halt this evening.
Thankfully the Good Lady Wifi decided to head back a little early from Falmouth today - missed the excitement on the A30 by about an hour. Thought we'd missed it here in south Devon, but the last hour or so it has gone all Winter Wonderland on us..... I decided going to a meeting tonight near Haldon Hill was a stupid thing to even try. Sat in and watched Guitar, Drum and Bass instead.
Unstupidly, that phenomenon has a name: stochastic programming.
If you have an infinite amount of options, each involving uncertainty, but only a finite amount of time and you don't know the distributions: how do you optimise the outcome? One approach goes like this:
* For an initial period, make as many choices as you can. Discard all of them. Note the best one. * For the next period, continue searching. When you find one that is as good as or better, select that one and stop playing. If you run out of time, pick the best remaining, even if it is inferior to the one you discarded.
This has several real-life applications, one of which you identified (houses) but perhaps the most interesting is mating: this is how humans choose their partners, and why many people have a yearning for a boy/girlfriend in their youth that "got away".
One day we will stop talking about WW2. It has been time to move on for some time. It holds this country back.
Thus Brexit.
The EU is just as obsessed with WW2, arguably more so.
I am sure they are. Having Hitler's tanks roll over them followed by the RAF bombing their cities flat and then having the world's largest invasion roll over them in the other direction .... well... it probably made an impression on them.
One day we will stop talking about WW2. It has been time to move on for some time. It holds this country back.
Thus Brexit.
Sadly so.
I guess the hope must be that with the next generation giving up on TV, they will avoid the diet of repeated war movies that we grew up with.
Most of them are fantastic movies.
For sure, as entertainment, and in many cases for history. But not as a prism through which to make judgements about political decisions nearly eighty years later.
I see the West Country has ground to a halt this evening.
I have actually been to points West: Exeter et al. Very pretty part of the world. Incredibly difficult to get to and not well served by things like buses. It's not resilient in harsh weather.
Every time there's an amber warning of snow for the area the A30 is closed by the snow. Why don't people learn?
Presumably because it happens once a year and it's cheaper for everyone to take the economic hit. Not nice to be caught out by it, though.
I think it's beyond tedious that the UK doesn't cope with normal winter weather. Chicago suburban trains seem to be running even now
Comments
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop
* Parliament ends up voting for May's original deal in a panic in late March: Brexit happens on schedule, or after a short technical extension
* The Tory party holds together, but the DUP switches off the Government's life support
* Snap election: Labour loses support as Europhiles (especially the young) defect or abstain, and it comes under more scrutiny as a plausible alternative Government than it did in 2017
* Theresa May wins a majority, stays in office until handover in 2023
Possible?
The fact I have 12 days worth of tickets for Ashes tests is irrelevant.
There's no manifesto that unites the party.
That is true, however Schultz is squarely trying to take the Democratic vote, his socially Liberal positioning is poison to far too much of the Republican base.
His entire series of interviews so far have been "Boo Donald Trump, Boo Dem economic policy". He's trying to grab a chunk of the "centrist" vote that was squarely in the Dem corner on the basis of the mid terms.
And the exit pollingnon Perot suggested he drew equally for the Rep and Dem vote. But 2020 is a very different time electoral base speaking from 1992
* EU stonewalls over the Irish backstop
* Parliament votes down May's deal by an even bigger majority and we head towards the cliff edge
* The Tory party fractures with the moderate wing calling for revocation
* Corbyn calls for unity to face down the EU and outriders talk about threatening to use Trident against the capitalist oppressor
* Snap election: Labour whips up a patriotic fervour and rides to a landslide majority
Or no GE and she steps down in favour of Gove in 2021.
Or the GE is pre Brexit and she wins and then goes on and on and on.
I have all of those in my collection.
The way he’s started, I don’t think he’d get much more than 1% of the vote.
I don’t think he’ll run now - though a couple of hundred million dollars in running expenses isn’t an issue to the Bloombergs and Schulzes. Public humiliation, on the other hand....
I know (hope) you're joking but gambling should only ever be done with money you can afford to lose and not money you need.
Churchill delivered on his ministry’s sole objective but got zero credit from an electorate that was focused on the vision of that Attlee offered. In the same way, in a post Brexit scenario, May may not get the credit she expects...
Hey I am a semi pro though - honestly! - and politics treats me well usually.
Foakes and Curran gone in 3 balls. FFS.
1. Eu says No
2. May puts her original deal to parliament
3. Parliament says No
...
1,000,000,000 Sun expands to engulf Earth
1,000,000,001 May tries once again, asks charred remains to consider her deal
That to be fair is not entirely unreasonable.
So Trump, clutching at straws, needs a black swan event. And Schultz provides him with the potential for one. Schultz may hurt the Democrats or he may hurt the Republicans or just turn out to be a damp squib and hurt neither. No-one really knows yet and that's the point. As Trump's well behind and until now well on course to lose the insertion of a bit of unpredictability is what he needs.
At what point will Root be sacked as captain?
An optimist believes things cannot get worse.
And Gary Sobers admitted being drunk when scoring his final test 150...
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1091068682543996928?s=21
Proper cricket on a difficult pitch.
'You started it!'
'No we didn't!'
'Yes you did, you invaded Poland!'
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/31/kamala-harris-2020-election-224533
The Gabbard ‘dumpster fire’ still has me shaking my head at whoever allowed me to short her at a fraction of the 200/1 she ought to be...
I’ve noted that Corbyn has a magic wand that he can use to stop freezing wearher affecting machinery
If you have an infinite amount of options, each involving uncertainty, but only a finite amount of time and you don't know the distributions: how do you optimise the outcome? One approach goes like this:
* For an initial period, make as many choices as you can. Discard all of them. Note the best one.
* For the next period, continue searching. When you find one that is as good as or better, select that one and stop playing. If you run out of time, pick the best remaining, even if it is inferior to the one you discarded.
This has several real-life applications, one of which you identified (houses) but perhaps the most interesting is mating: this is how humans choose their partners, and why many people have a yearning for a boy/girlfriend in their youth that "got away".
And today you have learned something new...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_programming
I guess the hope must be that with the next generation giving up on TV, they will avoid the diet of repeated war movies that we grew up with.
Stockpiling across the country is intensifying as the clock ticks down to 29 March, with the private sector revealing plans to secure long-term supplies of everything from emergency trauma packs to soap and Magnum ice-cream.
And Kent Community Health NHS trust is exploring the option of asking health service staff to stay overnight in its hospitals to safeguard against traffic gridlock in the event of no deal.
A no-deal technical notice issued by the Department for Education to schools in England on Thursday was the latest in more than 80 already published.
Ydoethur, if you're going to quote Fawlty Towers, you could at least have the decency to do it in the same room!
Maybe closing the A30 makes it snow.
Is that an acceptable comparison?
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2019/01/25/metra-extreme-cold-lower-speed-limit-trains-winter-weather/
https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6082118
Good night.
I know someone who attended a Chicago area school even once or twice when the temperature reached minus 30 degrees Fahrenheit.
Personally I prefer heat, as we had this last Summer.
Without it we’d have a much more flexible and amenable Europe of concentric treaties.
https://americanenglish.state.gov/files/ae/resource_files/to-build-a-fire.pdf