politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s approval ratings fall from from a net minus 3% to a n
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going in to 1987 the conservatives had a reputation for economic competencedavid_herdson said:
All else being equal, the next election would be a Tory slam dunk. The economy is recovering, austerity is easing off, unemployment is low, real wages are rising, and Labour is led by an incompetent lefty. It's the 1987 election but with Eric Heffer rather than Neil Kinnock.FrancisUrquhart said:
The problem for the tories is there is a significant number of people who don’t feel the current globalised liberal economy works for them, hence brexit. Jezzas, like trump, the superficial message is attractive and the tories appear to zero new ideas while also unable to illustrate the benefits of the globalised capitalist system.YBarddCwsc said:I think it would be stupid to underestimate Corby.
Burnham, Cooper, Kendall, Smith, the Blairites, May and the Tory Manifesto writers all did.
I do think last time the mainstream media didn't think Corby could win and so he did benefit from little serious examination of his policies. He'll get more next critical examination time.
But, does serious examination of policies actually move many votes?
Most voters are not rational. They vote out of a combination of emotion and self-interest.
So, my guess is (especially if he is up against May or a Vanilla Tory), Corby could do it again.
For the past 20 years, all the political parties and the media have been onboard the current system (give or take an extra bit of tax being redirected). But pro globalism, pro large scale immigration, etc etc etc, but stoke man doesn’t think it is doing much for them.
Problem is that Brexit means that things are very much not equal.0 -
Buses are also used heavily by poorer pensioners, which I expect is currently a key swing voting segment.another_richard said:
Lots of people use buses and its a service with difficulties:Benpointer said:Jezza's focus is undiminished I see, according to the Guardian's Politics Live agenda for today:
"10.15am: Jeremy Corbyn holds a meeting in Ilkeston focusing on bus services."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-47045872
Bus usage gets very little media attention (or government money) compared to say London based rail lines.0 -
To exceed the undoubted gains he made last time is much more difficult since by definition the klow hanging fruit already backed him. His challenge is both to keep them and get more. Nothing is impossible but there's no sign of any significant movement in, say Scotland where Labour needs big gains next time.YBarddCwsc said:I think it would be stupid to underestimate Corby.
Burnham, Cooper, Kendall, Smith, the Blairites, May and the Tory Manifesto writers all did.
I do think last time the mainstream media didn't think Corby could win and so he did benefit from little serious examination of his policies. He'll get more next critical examination time.
But, does serious examination of policies actually move many votes?
Most voters are not rational. They vote out of a combination of emotion and self-interest.
So, my guess is (especially if he is up against May or a Vanilla Tory), Corby could do it again.0 -
Perhaps not to the Tories disadvantage though.david_herdson said:
All else being equal, the next election would be a Tory slam dunk. The economy is recovering, austerity is easing off, unemployment is low, real wages are rising, and Labour is led by an incompetent lefty. It's the 1987 election but with Eric Heffer rather than Neil Kinnock.FrancisUrquhart said:
The problem for the tories is there is a significant number of people who don’t feel the current globalised liberal economy works for them, hence brexit. Jezzas, like trump, the superficial message is attractive and the tories appear to zero new ideas while also unable to illustrate the benefits of the globalised capitalist system.YBarddCwsc said:I think it would be stupid to underestimate Corby.
Burnham, Cooper, Kendall, Smith, the Blairites, May and the Tory Manifesto writers all did.
I do think last time the mainstream media didn't think Corby could win and so he did benefit from little serious examination of his policies. He'll get more next critical examination time.
But, does serious examination of policies actually move many votes?
Most voters are not rational. They vote out of a combination of emotion and self-interest.
So, my guess is (especially if he is up against May or a Vanilla Tory), Corby could do it again.
For the past 20 years, all the political parties and the media have been onboard the current system (give or take an extra bit of tax being redirected). But pro globalism, pro large scale immigration, etc etc etc, but stoke man doesn’t think it is doing much for them.
Problem is that Brexit means that things are very much not equal.
We can assume amongst likely GE voters the balance will be pro-remain (A consequence of non GE voters being more pro-leave and the general remain leads). But the remain vote will be split Lib Dem/Labour, whereas UKIP isn't all that big a factor for the Tories...
Unless the Tories end up bottling Brexit in which case they won't get back the remainers and will lose the leavers !0 -
I'm one of those who left the party and Corbyn's actions on Brexit have done nothing to make me reconsider. He did get a lot of remainer votes in 2017 regardless of whether that was decisive or not. The problem he will have going into the next one is that however many positive noises he makes to remainers very few are going to trust him to actually follow through.TheJezziah said:
The members want Corbyn to fight the next election, I am not sure what it would take in terms of polling to change that... I don't think any polling would change that. Wouldn't for me.tlg86 said:
I suspect what @Dura_Ace is getting at is that Labour won't move to get rid of Corbyn as long as the VI figures hold up - and even then he's probably safe as he made up a 20 point gap last time.MikeSmithson said:
That's crap. You've got it the wrong way round. Voting numbers are largely irrelevant compared with leader ratings.Dura_Ace said:This means fuck all until the voting intention poll rating drops. Then that will mean fuck all because Corbo has show he can claw back a massive lead over the course of a campaign. He is going nowhere until Labour lose another GE. The only question is whether they win one first.
As it is based on the polling, the situation and everything that comes with an election campaign I'd feel pretty confident about going into the next election.0 -
Alan, FPT. Only the 99% unionist media make it appear the SNP have major issues. Reality is that the opposition is dire, people are real pissed at Westminster and for sure SNP is growing as the only lot able to string a few words together. Very different to the mince you read in the unionist rags and the BBC propaganda. Most people will not be sidetracked by Salmond issue.Alanbrooke said:
No about 99% haveChris said:
Perhaps we can all agree that half the population has lost its senses.Alanbrooke said:Nigelb said:
I must have missed the "Vote Leave - You Probably Won't Starve" campaign.Alanbrooke said:
we eat 20% too much and throw away 30% of the food we buy uneatenRecidivist said:
The 'probably' in that sentence is doing a lot of work.AndyJS said:
It's probably not that we can't produce the food ourselves, just that it's cheaper to import it at the moment.IanB2 said:
About half and slowly risingSean_F said:gypsumfantastic said:Philip_Thompson said:I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?
I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.gypsumfantastic said:
I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.Philip_Thompson said:I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?
The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
We could feed ourselves at pinch. The free market is an amazingly efficient way of organising production and consumption. I don't think we'd like the results much though.
nobody is going to starve though supermarkets might sell less.0 -
Macron's popularity rises for second month in a row, now 24% for versus 73% against
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/31/01002-20190131ARTFIG00069-sondage-emmanuel-macron-poursuit-sa-lente-remontee.php0 -
Yes. I’m on Bailey (currently 4.6 on Betfair) for precisely this reason.DecrepitJohnL said:Re cars, at the next election Labour might have a problem in London when Sadiq's new emission charges hit more people than expected.
It’s going to affect millions of people and most don’t understand that the low emissions zone is inside the M25 rather than the existing central congestion zone, nor just how many cars are affected by it.0 -
We've passed a vote for a flat council (Per person) tax independent of property band or value in my office now btw.0
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Well now, gardeners have strong views on pelargoniums.matt said:Looking at the table, how do people collect enough information to approve or disapprove of Cable? What has he done to merit more than a resigned, “meh”. It’s akin to having a strong opinion on pelargoniums.
My personal favourite is Attar of Roses. I have a whole bank of it thriving in pots outside my conservatory so that when I open the windows they brush the leaves and the small pink flowers and release the heavenly scent. Despite the light snow and frost they are still there looking gorgeous.0 -
I am not sure I agree. The fact so many people seem unfazed by a leader with all of jezzas baggage screams warning bells to me. Yes Maybot is crap, Tory paralysis because of brexit, but there is more going on.david_herdson said:
All else being equal, the next election would be a Tory slam dunk. The economy is recovering, austerity is easing off, unemployment is low, real wages are rising, and Labour is led by an incompetent lefty. It's the 1987 election but with Eric Heffer rather than Neil Kinnock.FrancisUrquhart said:
The problem for the tories is there is a significant number of people who don’t feel the current globalised liberal economy works for them, hence brexit. Jezzas, like trump, the superficial message is attractive and the tories appear to zero new ideas while also unable to illustrate the benefits of the globalised capitalist system.YBarddCwsc said:I think it would be stupid to underestimate Corby.
Burnham, Cooper, Kendall, Smith, the Blairites, May and the Tory Manifesto writers all did.
I do think last time the mainstream media didn't think Corby could win and so he did benefit from little serious examination of his policies. He'll get more next critical examination time.
But, does serious examination of policies actually move many votes?
Most voters are not rational. They vote out of a combination of emotion and self-interest.
So, my guess is (especially if he is up against May or a Vanilla Tory), Corby could do it again.
For the past 20 years, all the political parties and the media have been onboard the current system (give or take an extra bit of tax being redirected). But pro globalism, pro large scale immigration, etc etc etc, but stoke man doesn’t think it is doing much for them.
Problem is that Brexit means that things are very much not equal.0 -
I think we may have tested this policy idea to destruction.Pulpstar said:We've passed a vote for a flat council (Per person) tax independent of property band or value in my office now btw.
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Bailey is a terrible candidate though. Not because of the stuff he said back in the day that the guardian have been digging up, but because he appears rubbish at campaigning. Khan is a very effective political operator (when it comes to winning votes), he is just rubbish when he has some power. I think he will easily duff up bailey like a school bully taking a small kids lunch money.Sandpit said:
Yes. I’m on Bailey (currently 4.6 on Betfair) for precisely this reason.DecrepitJohnL said:Re cars, at the next election Labour might have a problem in London when Sadiq's new emission charges hit more people than expected.
It’s going to affect millions of people and most don’t understand that the low emissions zone is inside the M25 rather than the existing central congestion zone, nor just how many cars are affected by it.0 -
Sadiq needs to read Bill Clinton's autobiog. He lost first governorship on a local petrol tax.Sandpit said:
Yes. I’m on Bailey (currently 4.6 on Betfair) for precisely this reason.DecrepitJohnL said:Re cars, at the next election Labour might have a problem in London when Sadiq's new emission charges hit more people than expected.
It’s going to affect millions of people and most don’t understand that the low emissions zone is inside the M25 rather than the existing central congestion zone, nor just how many cars are affected by it.0 -
What happens if McDonnell takes over? Snowball rather than Napoleon? the same policies with slightly less baggage.0
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Khan will win easily because he represents Corbyn and substituting the anti-semitism bit for stopping Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:
Bailey is a terrible candidate though. Not because of the stuff he said back in the day that the guardian have been digging up, but because he appears rubbish at campaigning. Khan is a very effective political operator (when it comes to winning votes), he is just rubbish when he has some power. I think he will easily duff up bailey like a school bully taking a small kids lunch money.Sandpit said:
Yes. I’m on Bailey (currently 4.6 on Betfair) for precisely this reason.DecrepitJohnL said:Re cars, at the next election Labour might have a problem in London when Sadiq's new emission charges hit more people than expected.
It’s going to affect millions of people and most don’t understand that the low emissions zone is inside the M25 rather than the existing central congestion zone, nor just how many cars are affected by it.
I did a whole thread on it but that sums it up. The only thing that might stop him is literally a wayward London bus, and that teeny tiny possibility means a win for Heidi Alexander not Shaun Bailey.0 -
I agree. First, the Tories are busily destroying their only USP.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am not sure I agree. The fact so many people seem unfazed by a leader with all of jezzas baggage screams warning bells to me. Yes Maybot is crap, Tory paralysis because of brexit, but there is more going on.david_herdson said:
All else being equal, the next election would be a Tory slam dunk. The economy is recovering, austerity is easing off, unemployment is low, real wages are rising, and Labour is led by an incompetent lefty. It's the 1987 election but with Eric Heffer rather than Neil Kinnock.FrancisUrquhart said:
The problem for the tories is there is a significant number of people who don’t feel the current globalised liberal economy works for them, hence brexit. Jezzas, like trump, the superficial message is attractive and the tories appear to zero new ideas while also unable to illustrate the benefits of the globalised capitalist system.YBarddCwsc said:I think it would be stupid to underestimate Corby.
Burnham, Cooper, Kendall, Smith, the Blairites, May and the Tory Manifesto writers all did.
I do think last time the mainstream media didn't think Corby could win and so he did benefit from little serious examination of his policies. He'll get more next critical examination time.
But, does serious examination of policies actually move many votes?
Most voters are not rational. They vote out of a combination of emotion and self-interest.
So, my guess is (especially if he is up against May or a Vanilla Tory), Corby could do it again.
For the past 20 years, all the political parties and the media have been onboard the current system (give or take an extra bit of tax being redirected). But pro globalism, pro large scale immigration, etc etc etc, but stoke man doesn’t think it is doing much for them.
Problem is that Brexit means that things are very much not equal.
Second, they have no policies for the JAMS. Labour does, however pie in the sky they may be.
Third, if Trump could be elected despite all his baggage, then Corbyn certainly can be, despite his.
Corbyn is very like Trump in many ways. The problems will be less to do with being elected and more with what he will be like in government where all the failings that have been identified ad nauseam will matter.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, is the lay value close to that?
I put £2 on Bailey at 61 a year or two ago.0 -
Stephen Bush has wrote about how he sees him struggling to win over the people Zac won over, which still resulted in a heavy loss. Matching Zac's total would still be nowhere near enough, Khan would need to lose a lot of votes even if he couldn't win on first preferences he'll be more transfer friendly.FrancisUrquhart said:
Bailey is a terrible candidate though. Not because of the stuff he said back in the day that the guardian have been digging up, but because he appears rubbish at campaigning. Khan is a very effective political operator (when it comes to winning votes), he is just rubbish when he has some power. I think he will easily duff up bailey like a school bully taking a small kids lunch money.Sandpit said:
Yes. I’m on Bailey (currently 4.6 on Betfair) for precisely this reason.DecrepitJohnL said:Re cars, at the next election Labour might have a problem in London when Sadiq's new emission charges hit more people than expected.
It’s going to affect millions of people and most don’t understand that the low emissions zone is inside the M25 rather than the existing central congestion zone, nor just how many cars are affected by it.
Not telling you this, I'm sure you know but basically from what I've seen/heard I'd agree.0 -
Lay it all out, take your £25 profit Mr Dancer.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, is the lay value close to that?
I put £2 on Bailey at 61 a year or two ago.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, slightly annoyingly, I got that price with Ladbrokes. I'll probably hedge a little (my Betfair account is very thin, though, and I've had to whittle away my Ladbrokes cash a bit too).0
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Rory on resignation watch?
These figures are pretty depressing.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/10909152519089479680 -
Just put a hundred quid on Khan, or if you're feeling really risk averse lay Bailey on Betfair for the same stake. The time value of money is good enough now to do this at anything near 7-2.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, slightly annoyingly, I got that price with Ladbrokes. I'll probably hedge a little (my Betfair account is very thin, though, and I've had to whittle away my Ladbrokes cash a bit too).
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Bailey isn’t the best of candidates, but the people affected by this are going to be the JAMS, the working classes who don’t work in central London and don’t live in areas of ubiquitous public transport, who will suddenly see their cost of living go up by £3k a year because they don’t have a brand new car. Also lots of shift-working public sector and key workers affected.FrancisUrquhart said:
Bailey is a terrible candidate though. Not because of the stuff he said back in the day that the guardian have been digging up, but because he appears rubbish at campaigning. Khan is a very effective political operator (when it comes to winning votes), he is just rubbish when he has some power. I think he will easily duff up bailey like a school bully taking a small kids lunch money.Sandpit said:
Yes. I’m on Bailey (currently 4.6 on Betfair) for precisely this reason.DecrepitJohnL said:Re cars, at the next election Labour might have a problem in London when Sadiq's new emission charges hit more people than expected.
It’s going to affect millions of people and most don’t understand that the low emissions zone is inside the M25 rather than the existing central congestion zone, nor just how many cars are affected by it.
It *could* turn into a nightmare for the Mayor, which is why I’m backing his opponent, albeit only for beer money at this stage. There’s no electoral college for the election, it’s a direct mandate and millions of Londoners are going to be right royally pissed off with this charge.0 -
It's a very close partnership - though Tesla keep their options open:FrancisUrquhart said:
I didn’t realise until recently that at the Tesla gigafactory, Tesla don’t make the battieres it is panasonic. Tesla just put them together into packs.Nigelb said:
But will they manufacture the batteries themselves ?Alanbrooke said:
they assemble batteries ( power packs )Nigelb said:
What do JLR mean by 'battery assembly centre' ?Alanbrooke said:
JLR announced a battery factory this month in Warwickshire, Nissan UK already has a facility. UK activities are driven through a research centre in Coventry,Nigelb said:FPT
A very good question - perhaps our resident motor industry experts would like to weigh in ?matt said:
How much of that is related to their entire business model seems to be in turmoil and new vehicles aren’t being launched because of a lack of regulatory certainty?Nigelb said:
Perhaps more significant is the massive drop in investment in the motor industry ?MarqueeMark said:
So hang on, few jobs lost in London, but 300 extra in Dublin. Are these jobs being lost in "branches across the [non-UK] EU then?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47055188
My own uninformed guess is that quite a lot of the drop in investment is 'business model in turmoil' related.
But no one seems to be planning battery plants here, as opposed to Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-batteries-europe-factbox/factbox-plans-for-electric-vehicle-battery-production-in-europe-idUSKCN1NE0K5
And, of course, Dyson, who aspires to be a player, has refocussed on Asia.
(Power packs contain thousands of them.)
https://electrek.co/2019/01/22/tesla-approve-new-battery-supplier-vehicles-panasonic-report/
Putting them in packs is actually quite a critical technology in driving costs down, and is one reason Tesla are reportedly the lowest cost manufacturer of automotive battery packs:
https://insideevs.com/tesla-secret-weapon-intense-focus-batteries/
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Sadiq is 1.28 to back and 1.35 to lay.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, is the lay value close to that?
I put £2 on Bailey at 61 a year or two ago.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051236/market?marketId=1.1297905250 -
The Corbynistas do not like Khan one little bit. Laura Pidcock will be the Corbyn candidate when Jeremy finally steps down.Pulpstar said:
Khan will win easily because he represents Corbyn and substituting the anti-semitism bit for stopping Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:
Bailey is a terrible candidate though. Not because of the stuff he said back in the day that the guardian have been digging up, but because he appears rubbish at campaigning. Khan is a very effective political operator (when it comes to winning votes), he is just rubbish when he has some power. I think he will easily duff up bailey like a school bully taking a small kids lunch money.Sandpit said:
Yes. I’m on Bailey (currently 4.6 on Betfair) for precisely this reason.DecrepitJohnL said:Re cars, at the next election Labour might have a problem in London when Sadiq's new emission charges hit more people than expected.
It’s going to affect millions of people and most don’t understand that the low emissions zone is inside the M25 rather than the existing central congestion zone, nor just how many cars are affected by it.
I did a whole thread on it but that sums it up. The only thing that might stop him is literally a wayward London bus, and that teeny tiny possibility means a win for Heidi Alexander not Shaun Bailey.
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Magic Grandpa doesn't like the backstop:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/10909048128986521620 -
Whilst his actions in 2015 were a little cynical I haven't got a problem with Khan, he's okay.SouthamObserver said:
The Corbynistas do not like Khan one little bit. Laura Pidcock will be the Corbyn candidate when Jeremy finally steps down.Pulpstar said:
Khan will win easily because he represents Corbyn and substituting the anti-semitism bit for stopping Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:
Bailey is a terrible candidate though. Not because of the stuff he said back in the day that the guardian have been digging up, but because he appears rubbish at campaigning. Khan is a very effective political operator (when it comes to winning votes), he is just rubbish when he has some power. I think he will easily duff up bailey like a school bully taking a small kids lunch money.Sandpit said:
Yes. I’m on Bailey (currently 4.6 on Betfair) for precisely this reason.DecrepitJohnL said:Re cars, at the next election Labour might have a problem in London when Sadiq's new emission charges hit more people than expected.
It’s going to affect millions of people and most don’t understand that the low emissions zone is inside the M25 rather than the existing central congestion zone, nor just how many cars are affected by it.
I did a whole thread on it but that sums it up. The only thing that might stop him is literally a wayward London bus, and that teeny tiny possibility means a win for Heidi Alexander not Shaun Bailey.0 -
Bloody hell! Fair play Jeremy Corbyn, a phrase I never thought I’d utter.CarlottaVance said:Magic Grandpa doesn't like the backstop:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1090904812898652162
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Decided just to hedge my original stake. If the odds improve a bit more I'll fiddle, but I've got a lot tied up (relatively speaking) in bets that come off or not in 2020 and don't want to sink in much more right now.0
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Bringing up JAMs is IMO extremely relevant. Since Christmas the number of parents I have had the same conversation with that if I was a Tory strategist I would be having sleepless nights.Cyclefree said:
I agree. First, the Tories are busily destroying their only USP.
Second, they have no policies for the JAMS. Labour does, however pie in the sky they may be.
Third, if Trump could be elected despite all his baggage, then Corbyn certainly can be, despite his.
Corbyn is very like Trump in many ways. The problems will be less to do with being elected and more with what he will be like in government where all the failings that have been identified ad nauseam will matter.
Middle class parents with couple of kids, they all bemoaning how below inflation wage rises for years means now that cost of raising their kids is really hard. And the sort of kick in the balls (and sounds very first world problems), they normally book their family vacations for the forthcoming year, but really can't afford it.
Its sounds very me me me, but these are the sort of people the Tories should win easily with their traditional message of work hard, be a good person and the market based economy will result in a good life for you and your family.0 -
I don't know why people seem surprised about this. Jeremy is basically "RedERG" and if he hadn't had the (mis)fortune to become Labour leader would be a lot more forthcoming than he is.CarlottaVance said:Magic Grandpa doesn't like the backstop:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/10909048128986521620 -
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And what is his solution?CarlottaVance said:Magic Grandpa doesn't like the backstop:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/10909048128986521620 -
That is genuinely funny...Justin will be along shortly telling us that we have to remember A-Levels were like proppa hard back in the day and 2Es means he isn't a thicko.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Like most of these polls, though, it is essentially a forced choice ("Do you approve or disapprove of x..."), but nonetheless, significantly fewer profess any opinion on him.matt said:Looking at the table, how do people collect enough information to approve or disapprove of Cable? What has he done to merit more than a resigned, “meh”. It’s akin to having a strong opinion on pelargoniums.
It's notable that when a poll asks respondents to volunteer a choice (cf the recent one for preferred Democratic nominee), the don't knows are often by far the largest category.0 -
the problem for the Tories is they need to reform the current version of capitalism and havent got the neck to do it.FrancisUrquhart said:
Bringing up JAMs is IMO extremely relevant. Since Christmas the number of parents I have had the same conversation with that if I was a Tory strategist I would be having sleepless nights.Cyclefree said:
I agree. First, the Tories are busily destroying their only USP.
Second, they have no policies for the JAMS. Labour does, however pie in the sky they may be.
Third, if Trump could be elected despite all his baggage, then Corbyn certainly can be, despite his.
Corbyn is very like Trump in many ways. The problems will be less to do with being elected and more with what he will be like in government where all the failings that have been identified ad nauseam will matter.
Middle class parents with couple of kids, they all bemoaning how below inflation wage rises for years means now that cost of raising their kids is really hard. And the sort of kick in the balls (and sounds very first world problems), they normally book their family vacations for the forthcoming year, but really can't afford it.
Its sounds very me me me, but these are the sort of people the Tories should win easily with their traditional message of work hard, be a good person and the market based economy will result in a good life for you and your family.0 -
williamglenn said:
For a moment, I read that as "February is cancelled".
Now if we were to do the same for March...0 -
'Ordinary' is a rather double-edged comment as well.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Steady on, my birthday is in March,Nigelb said:williamglenn said:
For a moment, I read that as "February is cancelled".
Now if we were to do the same for March...
Mind you if I don't get any presents at least it means I won't get any older.0 -
May and Corbyn drive voters to the other side. They need each other. The interesting thing is that there are very few Labour figures who would be more repellant to floating voters than Corbyn, but quite a few Tory ones who would be more repellant than May. The Tories will need to think very carefully about May’s replacement. Labour less so when, in the far distant future, Jeremy goes.williamglenn said:
It was an underestimation of how divisive May and Brexit were. May got more votes than Blair in 1997, but she also managed to unite all the opposition against her (helped by an inept performance from Tim Farron).Nigel_Foremain said:
The GE predictions were not an underestimation of Corbyn. It was an overestimation of May. Corbyn apologists also forget one thing, even though May was inept, he still lost.YBarddCwsc said:I think it would be stupid to underestimate Corby.
Burnham, Cooper, Kendall, Smith, the Blairites, May and the Tory Manifesto writers all did.
I do think last time the mainstream media didn't think Corby could win and so he did benefit from little serious examination of his policies. He'll get more next critical examination time.
But, does serious examination of policies actually move many votes?
Most voters are not rational. They vote out of a combination of emotion and self-interest.
So, my guess is (especially if he is up against May or a Vanilla Tory), Corby could do it again.
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Isn't it - "Intelligent in the top 3 words I'd use"?david_herdson said:
'Ordinary' is a rather double-edged comment as well.CarlottaVance said:0 -
What about the Treaty of Union ?CarlottaVance said:Magic Grandpa doesn't like the backstop:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/10909048128986521620 -
Judging him by his actions he's run circles around the Blairites and various other opposing factions in the Labour party, then made the Conservative party look foolish and even given the right wing media a bloody nose....FrancisUrquhart said:
That is genuinely funny...Justin will be along shortly telling us that we have to remember A-Levels were like proppa hard back in the day and 2Es means he isn't a thicko.CarlottaVance said:
Although in fairness all these groups consist of mediocre minds so I suppose the logic holds.0 -
Maybot is crap, Tories are paralysed by Brexit, wages have only just started regrowing in real terms - and yet Labour is only just level pegging. No, Corbyn is crap.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am not sure I agree. The fact so many people seem unfazed by a leader with all of jezzas baggage screams warning bells to me. Yes Maybot is crap, Tory paralysis because of brexit, but there is more going on.david_herdson said:
All else being equal, the next election would be a Tory slam dunk. The economy is recovering, austerity is easing off, unemployment is low, real wages are rising, and Labour is led by an incompetent lefty. It's the 1987 election but with Eric Heffer rather than Neil Kinnock.FrancisUrquhart said:
The problem for the tories is there is a significant number of people who don’t feel the current globalised liberal economy works for them, hence brexit. Jezzas, like trump, the superficial message is attractive and the tories appear to zero new ideas while also unable to illustrate the benefits of the globalised capitalist system.YBarddCwsc said:I think it would be stupid to underestimate Corby.
Burnham, Cooper, Kendall, Smith, the Blairites, May and the Tory Manifesto writers all did.
I do think last time the mainstream media didn't think Corby could win and so he did benefit from little serious examination of his policies. He'll get more next critical examination time.
But, does serious examination of policies actually move many votes?
Most voters are not rational. They vote out of a combination of emotion and self-interest.
So, my guess is (especially if he is up against May or a Vanilla Tory), Corby could do it again.
For the past 20 years, all the political parties and the media have been onboard the current system (give or take an extra bit of tax being redirected). But pro globalism, pro large scale immigration, etc etc etc, but stoke man doesn’t think it is doing much for them.
Problem is that Brexit means that things are very much not equal.
That said, I agree that a campaign based on Corbyn's baggage would be the wrong way to go. It's his current policies and perceived abilities that need smashing.0 -
There are only 3 positive words though !TheWhiteRabbit said:
Isn't it - "Intelligent in the top 3 words I'd use"?david_herdson said:
'Ordinary' is a rather double-edged comment as well.CarlottaVance said:
- ordinary is clearly worse than intelligent, honest and in touch0 -
Yes, the really difficult bit is temperature regulation. The packaging needs to accommodate both heating and cooling to keep the batteries in their most efficient operating window, and Tesla are really good at this.Nigelb said:
It's a very close partnership - though Tesla keep their options open:FrancisUrquhart said:
I didn’t realise until recently that at the Tesla gigafactory, Tesla don’t make the battieres it is panasonic. Tesla just put them together into packs.Nigelb said:
But will they manufacture the batteries themselves ?Alanbrooke said:
they assemble batteries ( power packs )Nigelb said:
What do JLR mean by 'battery assembly centre' ?Alanbrooke said:
JLR announced a battery factory this month in Warwickshire, Nissan UK already has a facility. UK activities are driven through a research centre in Coventry,Nigelb said:FPT
A very good question - perhaps our resident motor industry experts would like to weigh in ?matt said:
How much of that is related to their entire business model seems to be in turmoil and new vehicles aren’t being launched because of a lack of regulatory certainty?Nigelb said:
Perhaps more significant is the massive drop in investment in the motor industry ?MarqueeMark said:
So hang on, few jobs lost in London, but 300 extra in Dublin. Are these jobs being lost in "branches across the [non-UK] EU then?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47055188
My own uninformed guess is that quite a lot of the drop in investment is 'business model in turmoil' related.
But no one seems to be planning battery plants here, as opposed to Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-batteries-europe-factbox/factbox-plans-for-electric-vehicle-battery-production-in-europe-idUSKCN1NE0K5
And, of course, Dyson, who aspires to be a player, has refocussed on Asia.
(Power packs contain thousands of them.)
https://electrek.co/2019/01/22/tesla-approve-new-battery-supplier-vehicles-panasonic-report/
Putting them in packs is actually quite a critical technology in driving costs down, and is one reason Tesla are reportedly the lowest cost manufacturer of automotive battery packs:
https://insideevs.com/tesla-secret-weapon-intense-focus-batteries/
Cheap electric cars like the old Nissan Leaf suffer from up to 30% range loss in the winter, which is a nightmare for commuters.0 -
Cable is 76 this May. He's the first leader of any of the three main parties to serve into his fourth quarter-century since Churchill - and Churchill fought two elections after that milestone, gaining seats at both and winning one. That's surely a happy omen for Vince?matt said:Looking at the table, how do people collect enough information to approve or disapprove of Cable? What has he done to merit more than a resigned, “meh”. It’s akin to having a strong opinion on pelargoniums.
0 -
They don't put that in the commercial....Sandpit said:
Yes, the really difficult bit is temperature regulation. The packaging needs to accommodate both heating and cooling to keep the batteries in their most efficient operating window, and Tesla are really good at this.Nigelb said:
It's a very close partnership - though Tesla keep their options open:FrancisUrquhart said:
I didn’t realise until recently that at the Tesla gigafactory, Tesla don’t make the battieres it is panasonic. Tesla just put them together into packs.Nigelb said:
But will they manufacture the batteries themselves ?Alanbrooke said:
they assemble batteries ( power packs )Nigelb said:
What do JLR mean by 'battery assembly centre' ?Alanbrooke said:
JLR announced a battery factory this month in Warwickshire, Nissan UK already has a facility. UK activities are driven through a research centre in Coventry,Nigelb said:FPT
A very good question - perhaps our resident motor industry experts would like to weigh in ?matt said:
How much of that is related to their entire business model seems to be in turmoil and new vehicles aren’t being launched because of a lack of regulatory certainty?Nigelb said:
Perhaps more significant is the massive drop in investment in the motor industry ?MarqueeMark said:
So hang on, few jobs lost in London, but 300 extra in Dublin. Are these jobs being lost in "branches across the [non-UK] EU then?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47055188
My own uninformed guess is that quite a lot of the drop in investment is 'business model in turmoil' related.
But no one seems to be planning battery plants here, as opposed to Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-batteries-europe-factbox/factbox-plans-for-electric-vehicle-battery-production-in-europe-idUSKCN1NE0K5
And, of course, Dyson, who aspires to be a player, has refocussed on Asia.
(Power packs contain thousands of them.)
https://electrek.co/2019/01/22/tesla-approve-new-battery-supplier-vehicles-panasonic-report/
Putting them in packs is actually quite a critical technology in driving costs down, and is one reason Tesla are reportedly the lowest cost manufacturer of automotive battery packs:
https://insideevs.com/tesla-secret-weapon-intense-focus-batteries/
Cheap electric cars like the old Nissan Leaf suffer from up to 30% range loss in the winter, which is a nightmare for commuters.0 -
Recess cancelled - and absolutely correct - serves them right
And now labour complain about the extra childcare cost.0 -
The data indicates that Corbyn’s brand has suffered serious damage over the past 18 months, but is “Corbynmania” dead or just dormant?
On the one hand, we’ve been here before. Polling before the last election also showed dire numbers for Jeremy Corbyn, with him starting the campaign with a net favourability score of -42, compared to Theresa May’s score of +10. Yet he managed to completely defy expectations once people saw him on the campaign trail, leapfrogging the Prime Minister and increasing his score to net 0 in less than 8 weeks, whilst her score dropped to -34.
And whilst it may not currently feel like it, Brexit isn’t going to be a dominant issue forever. Corbyn may be able to rebound if he can shift the focus back onto issues on which he is more comfortable – such as poverty, inequality or the NHS.
On the other hand, soufflés don’t rise twice. We shouldn’t assume that just because Corbyn managed to beat the odds once he will automatically be able to do so again, particularly given that the public have now had a lot longer to get to know the Labour leader, therefore their opinions of him are likely to be more entrenched.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/01/30/brexit-indecisiveness-seriously-damaging-corbyn
While Brexit isn’t going to be a dominant issue forever is true, I suspect 'for the political lifetimes of any politician over 50' is a more accurate reflection.0 -
Tories weren't paralysed by Brexit when Corbyn got the biggest vote share increase since WW2 for Labour. Electorally Corbyn has been a huge asset to Labour, unless the crapness is based on non electoral things like his political opinions...david_herdson said:
Maybot is crap, Tories are paralysed by Brexit, wages have only just started regrowing in real terms - and yet Labour is only just level pegging. No, Corbyn is crap.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am not sure I agree. The fact so many people seem unfazed by a leader with all of jezzas baggage screams warning bells to me. Yes Maybot is crap, Tory paralysis because of brexit, but there is more going on.david_herdson said:
All else being equal, the next election would be a Tory slam dunk. The economy is recovering, austerity is easing off, unemployment is low, real wages are rising, and Labour is led by an incompetent lefty. It's the 1987 election but with Eric Heffer rather than Neil Kinnock.FrancisUrquhart said:
The problem for the tories is there is a significant number of people who don’t feel the current globalised liberal economy works for them, hence brexit. Jezzas, like trump, the superficial message is attractive and the tories appear to zero new ideas while also unable to illustrate the benefits of the globalised capitalist system.YBarddCwsc said:I think it would be stupid to underestimate Corby.
Burnham, Cooper, Kendall, Smith, the Blairites, May and the Tory Manifesto writers all did.
I do think last time the mainstream media didn't think Corby could win and so he did benefit from little serious examination of his policies. He'll get more next critical examination time.
But, does serious examination of policies actually move many votes?
Most voters are not rational. They vote out of a combination of emotion and self-interest.
So, my guess is (especially if he is up against May or a Vanilla Tory), Corby could do it again.
For the past 20 years, all the political parties and the media have been onboard the current system (give or take an extra bit of tax being redirected). But pro globalism, pro large scale immigration, etc etc etc, but stoke man doesn’t think it is doing much for them.
Problem is that Brexit means that things are very much not equal.
That said, I agree that a campaign based on Corbyn's baggage would be the wrong way to go. It's his current policies and perceived abilities that need smashing.0 -
-
I continue to commend to the government my approach for dealing with Brexit:Nigelb said:williamglenn said:
For a moment, I read that as "February is cancelled".
Now if we were to do the same for March...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/01/20/desperate-times-a-new-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse/0 -
Hmm I always thought MPs were supposed to do constituency work during their frequent breaks from parliament and so forth...Big_G_NorthWales said:Recess cancelled - and absolutely correct - serves them right
And now labour complain about the extra childcare cost.
Or has it always been a nice half term holiday ?0 -
FPT, I was struck by a comment:
There's been this meme that manufacturing has been devastated in Britain over the years (see "Thatcher", "EU", "Blair" for who gets blamed - but it doesn't really look like it:Alanbrooke said:
Secondly our manufacturing has been butchered whilst in the EU or didnt you notice ?Cicero said:
Why not put that pithy summation on the side of public transport...
The problem with Brexit is not that we necessarily starve. It is the permanent loss of most of our remaining manufacturing and the imposition of a drag on our competitiveness that will increase costs on the surviving part of the economy by about 10%-15%. The impact is to turn the UK from a contender in the global markets into an economy that lacks the skills, the efficiency and the leadership to do more than drift out of the top ten.
A future selling scones to Chinese tourists while they admire our absurdly old fashioned ways, like our political system, is not the future I would want for my kids.
This is a turning point, and the Conservative Party which has inflicted this disaster on the country should be eviscerated. The so-called party of business has systematically trashed the business environment in the most reckless and stupid way possible.
Big changes are coming. They are needed.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/timeseries/k22a/diop
What has happened is that productivity in manufacturing has increased a huge amount over the decades, so we're actually producing more (and higher value) with far fewer people.
I think people are seeing the reduction in number of people involved and assuming "we don't make anything any more", when we do, in fact, make more than ever before.0 -
Agree, despite Magic Grandpa's fans, the voters have rumbled him so outside his immediate coterie most leadership choices will be on the upside. And the Tories did so well last time they deposed a female leader.SouthamObserver said:
The Tories will need to think very carefully about May’s replacement. Labour less so when, in the far distant future, Jeremy goes.williamglenn said:
It was an underestimation of how divisive May and Brexit were. May got more votes than Blair in 1997, but she also managed to unite all the opposition against her (helped by an inept performance from Tim Farron).Nigel_Foremain said:
The GE predictions were not an underestimation of Corbyn. It was an overestimation of May. Corbyn apologists also forget one thing, even though May was inept, he still lost.YBarddCwsc said:I think it would be stupid to underestimate Corby.
Burnham, Cooper, Kendall, Smith, the Blairites, May and the Tory Manifesto writers all did.
I do think last time the mainstream media didn't think Corby could win and so he did benefit from little serious examination of his policies. He'll get more next critical examination time.
But, does serious examination of policies actually move many votes?
Most voters are not rational. They vote out of a combination of emotion and self-interest.
So, my guess is (especially if he is up against May or a Vanilla Tory), Corby could do it again.
If May does somehow pull off a Brexit deal, I suspect she'll get a bump in the polls....lets just hope she does not fall victim to the all too human desire to "go on".....0 -
She has a brass neck given that May has just deliberately wasted 6 weeks since the cancelled December vote. And is intent on wasting another fortnight to no purpose.Scott_P said:0 -
I wonder when it’s going to dawn on the MPs that they’re probably going to be working weekends in Parliament for six weeks too?Scott_P said:0 -
-
I liked that one at the time, and it has only improved since.AlastairMeeks said:
I continue to commend to the government my approach for dealing with Brexit:Nigelb said:williamglenn said:
For a moment, I read that as "February is cancelled".
Now if we were to do the same for March...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/01/20/desperate-times-a-new-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse/0 -
The problem with that plan is that we also need Brussels to implement the Meek's Calendar not just the UK...AlastairMeeks said:
I continue to commend to the government my approach for dealing with Brexit:Nigelb said:williamglenn said:
For a moment, I read that as "February is cancelled".
Now if we were to do the same for March...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/01/20/desperate-times-a-new-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse/0 -
He has certainly run circles round the Blairites. They have been comprehensively defeated.TheJezziah said:
Judging him by his actions he's run circles around the Blairites and various other opposing factions in the Labour party, then made the Conservative party look foolish and even given the right wing media a bloody nose....FrancisUrquhart said:
That is genuinely funny...Justin will be along shortly telling us that we have to remember A-Levels were like proppa hard back in the day and 2Es means he isn't a thicko.CarlottaVance said:
Although in fairness all these groups consist of mediocre minds so I suppose the logic holds.
Liz Kendall was heavily tipped by our breathless and dreamy media, before being absolutely whipped by Corby in the leadership election.
I'm not sure that it is fair to say the Blairites have mediocre minds. It is more that they became corpulent and complacent and corrupt.
All that work on the vegetable and fruit garden in the allotment has kept Corby lean and athletic and hungry.0 -
With respect I think that is rather cynical. I expect all mps who have all got us into this mess to work 24/7 until the end of March, to get a deal and stop no brexitCyclefree said:
She has a brass neck given that May has just deliberately wasted 6 weeks since the cancelled December vote. And is intent on wasting another fortnight to no purpose.Scott_P said:0 -
-
What's with the public slagging off Jeremy Corbyn? Are they such a bunch of super honest and super intelligent angels themselves? Hardly. Look at the state of them. And yet they look down on a guy who has dedicated his life to a great cause and has risen to lead our premier political party. Utterly pathetic. This 'poll' says far more about them than it does about JC.0
-
-
err noAndy_Cooke said:FPT, I was struck by a comment:
There's been this meme that manufacturing has been devastated in Britain over the years (see "Thatcher", "EU", "Blair" for who gets blamed - but it doesn't really look like it:Alanbrooke said:
Secondly our manufacturing has been butchered whilst in the EU or didnt you notice ?Cicero said:
Why not put that pithy summation on the side of public transport...
The problem with Brexit is not that we necessarily starve. It is the permanent loss of most of our remaining manufacturing and the imposition of a drag on our competitiveness that will increase costs on the surviving part of the economy by about 10%-15%. The impact is to turn the UK from a contender in the global markets into an economy that lacks the skills, the efficiency and the leadership to do more than drift out of the top ten.
A future selling scones to Chinese tourists while they admire our absurdly old fashioned ways, like our political system, is not the future I would want for my kids.
This is a turning point, and the Conservative Party which has inflicted this disaster on the country should be eviscerated. The so-called party of business has systematically trashed the business environment in the most reckless and stupid way possible.
Big changes are coming. They are needed.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/timeseries/k22a/diop
What has happened is that productivity in manufacturing has increased a huge amount over the decades, so we're actually producing more (and higher value) with far fewer people.
I think people are seeing the reduction in number of people involved and assuming "we don't make anything any more", when we do, in fact, make more than ever before.
certainly productivity has climbed
some of that was cosmetic when cleaning and security was outsourced for example but generally productivity has been on the up. But not up enough we are horribly behind the game on automation and the UK just doesnt invest enough for a variety of reasons.
But if you go back there are just huge slices of manufacturing which no longer exist. Try fitting out a kitchen with UK sourced products, or machine tools. A lot of what we import is mid tech products from high cost countries and theres no real reason they cant be made in the UK as opposed to Germany Japan or Italy. Oddly since we have such a low base we can afford to be quite radical in exploiting the recent developments in manufacturing in customisation and supporting R&D but it requires HMG to do something pro active about it. No sign of that happening yet.0 -
I agree. The slight problem is that letting the Cabinet out of the cupboard isn't exactly a vote-winning prospect either. There may in theory be people whose vote could be swung by Gavin Williamson, Chris Grayling and Matt Hancock, but until suffrage is extended to the residents of mental hospitals, it will remain just a theoretical possibility.DecrepitJohnL said:
That is the popular view, that the death tax killed the Tories, but I do not believe it. Lynton Crosby's dreadful campaign lost it, even though afterwards he spun it as being down to Nick & Fiona's death tax, a proposal quickly dropped and that I do not recall Labour focussing on, though with targeted advertising these days, it is hard to be sure what messages parties are pumping out on social media. Crosby imposed a presidential campaign with Theresa May front and centre and the rest of the Cabinet locked in a cupboard, completely overlooking that Theresa May is rotten on the stump.eek said:
The Tory campaign won't be as bad as the last time. It was destroyed by the Social Care "Death" tax which won't be part of any future manifesto.david_herdson said:On topic, I agree with Mike.
Corbynistas will no doubt (rightly) point out that Corbyn's ratings were also bad - worse, indeed - before the 2017 campaign and improved hugely in the month leading up to the vote but in doing so, they ignore two things. Firstly, the Tory campaign cannot be guaranteed to be so singularly dreadful again (though if may is still leader, it might be); and secondly, voters who gave Corbyn a second chance in 2017 - remember, Labour was level-pegging with the Tories under Corbyn, while Cameron was PM - might be disinclined to give him a third one, no matter how well he campaigns.0 -
A mild distraction (people getting arsey about it probably being the main part).
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/10906275581803520000 -
Sadly for Corbyn, the poll is a clear verdict on the most incompetent labour leader in my lifetime of 75 yearskinabalu said:What's with the public slagging off Jeremy Corbyn? Are they such a bunch of super honest and super intelligent angels themselves? Hardly. Look at the state of them. And yet they look down on a guy who has dedicated his life to a great cause and has risen to lead our premier political party. Utterly pathetic. This 'poll' says far more about them than it does about JC.
0 -
On 15th August 1867, Benjamin Disraeli's Second Reform Act enfranchised many urban working men and added 938,000 to an electorate of 1,057,000 in England and Wales.david_herdson said:
Cable is 76 this May. He's the first leader of any of the three main parties to serve into his fourth quarter-century since Churchill - and Churchill fought two elections after that milestone, gaining seats at both and winning one. That's surely a happy omen for Vince?matt said:Looking at the table, how do people collect enough information to approve or disapprove of Cable? What has he done to merit more than a resigned, “meh”. It’s akin to having a strong opinion on pelargoniums.
This is nearer to Vince Cable's birthdate than today is.0 -
AS I said earlier the donkeys were not going to let the trough be removed, just a case of who blinked first.Scott_P said:0 -
You're assuming that they think of dishonesty and stupidity as undesirable characteristics in a politician. Past election results suggest the reverse.kinabalu said:What's with the public slagging off Jeremy Corbyn? Are they such a bunch of super honest and super intelligent angels themselves? Hardly. Look at the state of them. And yet they look down on a guy who has dedicated his life to a great cause and has risen to lead our premier political party. Utterly pathetic. This 'poll' says far more about them than it does about JC.
0 -
I am surprised the lead is not larger. But it is irrelevant, I cannot see a second referendum entirely because Corbyn will never agree to one. ( neither will very many labour mps)Scott_P said:0 -
DENIS MACSHANE: Why Labour's jailed MP MUST resign...
What can you say.0 -
Corbyn campaigning about bus services is sensible, not stupid.0 -
Very marginally less than 100%.Theuniondivvie said:A mild distraction (people getting arsey about it probably being the main part).
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/10906275581803520000 -
Arguing Corbyn up among this audience is impossible, so I'll bring everyone else down instead and then logically he looks better even if only in comparison.YBarddCwsc said:
He has certainly run circles round the Blairites. They have been comprehensively defeated.TheJezziah said:
Judging him by his actions he's run circles around the Blairites and various other opposing factions in the Labour party, then made the Conservative party look foolish and even given the right wing media a bloody nose....FrancisUrquhart said:
That is genuinely funny...Justin will be along shortly telling us that we have to remember A-Levels were like proppa hard back in the day and 2Es means he isn't a thicko.CarlottaVance said:
Although in fairness all these groups consist of mediocre minds so I suppose the logic holds.
Liz Kendall was heavily tipped by our breathless and dreamy media, before being absolutely whipped by Corby in the leadership election.
I'm not sure that it is fair to say the Blairites have mediocre minds. It is more that they became corpulent and complacent and corrupt.
All that work on the vegetable and fruit garden in the allotment has kept Corby lean and athletic and hungry.
More seriously I don't think those groups particularly stand out as very different to Corbyn, in terms of application, at least in the realm of politics their behind at the moment.0 -
If Corbyn's approval ratings are dropping that's very good news for the UK.0
-
Pb Tories used to boast that David Cameron had the top performance in Oxford's PPE history and look how that turned out.AlastairMeeks said:
You're assuming that they think of dishonesty and stupidity as undesirable characteristics in a politician. Past election results suggest the reverse.kinabalu said:What's with the public slagging off Jeremy Corbyn? Are they such a bunch of super honest and super intelligent angels themselves? Hardly. Look at the state of them. And yet they look down on a guy who has dedicated his life to a great cause and has risen to lead our premier political party. Utterly pathetic. This 'poll' says far more about them than it does about JC.
0 -
No wait it is 100% as formulated..Pulpstar said:
Very marginally less than 100%.Theuniondivvie said:A mild distraction (people getting arsey about it probably being the main part).
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/10906275581803520000 -
Bloomberg report from Europe saying the EU will not concede before the 14th February as they hope the HOC will weaken TM's position, presumably by taking no deal off the table
However, post the 14th Feb, and as we run to March, they will bite the bullet and negotiate as they simply cannot contemplate no deal
As has always been the case no deal is a very important part of this process, take it off the table and we may as well just fold0 -
This is nail on head. And, as Ms Cyclefree pointed out, at least Labour has shown some willingness to consider this. Their conclusions may, or may not be to ones liking...but they have the advantage of existing.FrancisUrquhart said:
Bringing up JAMs is IMO extremely relevant. Since Christmas the number of parents I have had the same conversation with that if I was a Tory strategist I would be having sleepless nights.Cyclefree said:
I agree. First, the Tories are busily destroying their only USP.
Second, they have no policies for the JAMS. Labour does, however pie in the sky they may be.
Third, if Trump could be elected despite all his baggage, then Corbyn certainly can be, despite his.
Corbyn is very like Trump in many ways. The problems will be less to do with being elected and more with what he will be like in government where all the failings that have been identified ad nauseam will matter.
Middle class parents with couple of kids, they all bemoaning how below inflation wage rises for years means now that cost of raising their kids is really hard. And the sort of kick in the balls (and sounds very first world problems), they normally book their family vacations for the forthcoming year, but really can't afford it.
Its sounds very me me me, but these are the sort of people the Tories should win easily with their traditional message of work hard, be a good person and the market based economy will result in a good life for you and your family.
By contrast, the Tory offer is of "look how wonderful we are, with full employment and all. Let's have more of the same."0 -
That's what I thought, I was racking my brains for where the margin might be! The one son of God out of billions of conceptions maybe...Pulpstar said:
No wait it is 100% as formulated..Pulpstar said:
Very marginally less than 100%.Theuniondivvie said:A mild distraction (people getting arsey about it probably being the main part).
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/10906275581803520000 -
They will import the lithium cells and assemble them in the UK for use in electric vehicles and export. We aren't a major manufacturer of lithium cells, no European nation is.Nigelb said:
What do JLR mean by 'battery assembly centre' ?Alanbrooke said:
JLR announced a battery factory this month in Warwickshire, Nissan UK already has a facility. UK activities are driven through a research centre in Coventry,Nigelb said:FPT
A very good question - perhaps our resident motor industry experts would like to weigh in ?matt said:
How much of that is related to their entire business model seems to be in turmoil and new vehicles aren’t being launched because of a lack of regulatory certainty?Nigelb said:
Perhaps more significant is the massive drop in investment in the motor industry ?MarqueeMark said:
So hang on, few jobs lost in London, but 300 extra in Dublin. Are these jobs being lost in "branches across the [non-UK] EU then?IanB2 said:Barclays is moving €190bn (£166bn) of assets to Dublin because it "cannot wait any longer" to implement its Brexit contingency plan. The High Court, which has approved the move, says the move involves 5,000 clients. However, few jobs in London are expected to be affected.
The business amounts to around 15% of the bank's £1.2 trillion in total assets and was previously conducted in the UK through branches across the EU.
The plans will be in place by 29 March. The bank's Dublin operation is expected to double in size to 300 people as a result of the business being channelled though the Irish capital.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47055188
My own uninformed guess is that quite a lot of the drop in investment is 'business model in turmoil' related.
But no one seems to be planning battery plants here, as opposed to Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-batteries-europe-factbox/factbox-plans-for-electric-vehicle-battery-production-in-europe-idUSKCN1NE0K5
And, of course, Dyson, who aspires to be a player, has refocussed on Asia.0 -
As always, the Leave figure is a composite of widely diverse views, from No-Dealers to Brinos to Unicornistas. So when we leave we will be implementing a policy that pleases few, disappoints a large majority and is almost certainly going to be bad for the country.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am surprised the lead is not larger. But it is irrelevant, I cannot see a second referendum entirely because Corbyn will never agree to one. ( neither will very many labour mps)Scott_P said:
Has there been a bigger Governmental f*ck up since Lord North lost the Colonies?0 -
If one of the fathers later identifies as a woman, does that not then make them a daughter?Theuniondivvie said:
That's what I thought, I was racking my brains for where the margin might be! The one son of God out of billions of conceptions maybe...Pulpstar said:
No wait it is 100% as formulated..Pulpstar said:
Very marginally less than 100%.Theuniondivvie said:A mild distraction (people getting arsey about it probably being the main part).
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/10906275581803520000 -
The poll from Opinium also has voting intention numbers:-
Con 31%
Lab 29%,
Lib Dem 7%,
UKIP 5%,
Others 5%,
Don't know/won't say 23%.
Excluding don't knows, that converts to Con 40%, Lab 38%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 6%, Others 7%.
On Brexit, Remain is on 38%, No Deal 29%, May's Deal 20%, Excluding don't knows, that's 44%, 33%, 23%.
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Parthenogenesis is, I understand, theoretically now possible in humans though yet to be actually done so far as anyone knows.Theuniondivvie said:
That's what I thought, I was racking my brains for where the margin might be! The one son of God out of billions of conceptions maybe...Pulpstar said:
No wait it is 100% as formulated..Pulpstar said:
Very marginally less than 100%.Theuniondivvie said:A mild distraction (people getting arsey about it probably being the main part).
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/10906275581803520000 -
We have a saying here in the valleys: "thick as a bull's knob".CarlottaVance said:
I've no doubt he's as cunning, mendacious and politically streetwise as he is academically thick, mind you.0 -
A good point. And I'm glad you got in touch because I would appreciate your ((and others) feedback on a theory I am working up. As below:AlastairMeeks said:You're assuming that they think of dishonesty and stupidity as undesirable characteristics in a politician. Past election results suggest the reverse.
If TM cannot get her deal through, she will not allow no deal and neither will she cave in and embrace the softer brexit that Labour are calling for.
What she WILL do is seek to call a general election, along with the article 50 extension necessary to hold it.
Just the threat of her doing this could upset the ERG and the DUP so much that they fall in line, meaning that she does get the deal through.
Otherwise, GENERAL ELECTION in March.
What do you think?0 -
*quickly shuffles away from open can of worms*Tissue_Price said:
If one of the fathers later identifies as a woman, does that not then make them a daughter?Theuniondivvie said:
That's what I thought, I was racking my brains for where the margin might be! The one son of God out of billions of conceptions maybe...Pulpstar said:
No wait it is 100% as formulated..Pulpstar said:
Very marginally less than 100%.Theuniondivvie said:A mild distraction (people getting arsey about it probably being the main part).
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/10906275581803520000 -
I think gender identity would affect this, but yes. Every son has a father etc.Pulpstar said:
No wait it is 100% as formulated..Pulpstar said:
Very marginally less than 100%.Theuniondivvie said:A mild distraction (people getting arsey about it probably being the main part).
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1090627558180352000
In other words, every one of your antecedents, for a hundred generations, managed to procreate.0
