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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Disastrously successful. The EU’s Brexit negotiation

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Dura_Ace said:

    I've been teaching English, French and (some) Russian to corporate arseholes for over 10 years and, in my experience, being a native English speaker doesn't really confer any advantage in business. You can do just about any job (maybe law would be an exception) at CERF B2 competency as long your command of the domain specific vocabulary is good. The same applies to French.

    Being a native Russian speaker is a different matter. Very, very few foreigners achieve true fluency due to very subtle conventions of vernacular emphasis. I lived in Russia for 9 years and on my very best day I still sound very much like a foreigner. I could maybe pass for Polish...

    The primacy of English, this discussion and me are shortly going to be rendered redundant by ubiquitous machine translation anyway.
    I’m still trying and failing badly to learn Russian. Maybe my mind is still thinking of the positive side of not being able to converse with the in-laws! That said, the father-in-law was an Air Force pilot, so we once spent an evening and a bottle of vodka talking about flying planes in hand gestures!

    I’ll welcome machine translation when it can understand the dozen or more meanings of “Insh’Allah” used in Arabia!
  • Roger said:

    Like you I work all over the world (32 countries at the last count) and I meet Colonel Blimps like Casino Royale all too often. My work is freelance and very competitive and thus a survival of those who can do their jobs well. The bane of my life is meeting clowns who think being from England alone makes them more gifted than the locals.

    Totally agree. It is embarrassing, profoundly ignorant and incredibly annoying. But it is not fascism!!

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Diane Abbott tops the list of abused woman MPs, a favourite target of the Tory supporters in right wing press and a favourite of the threatening far right types...

    Another complete coincidence I'm sure....
    Abusing someone for being an illiterate and innumerate hypocrite is not the same as abusing her because she’s black and female. Tory supporters dish out plenty of the former to Ms Abbott.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    It’s cakism because it is the polar opposite of what Leave campaigned for. But you like it so you hope everyone is going to forget that inconvenient fact.
    Leave are not a government. They were a campaigning group. A group that no government should consider themselves bound by. The result was to leave, that’s it, leave. You can use whatever inference you want.

    I voted leave, but made no assumption that we would be leaving the single market. I didn’t think any pm would be irresponsible enough to do so. I don’t like the EU, but I don’t want to stop buying and selling widgets with them as easily as we currently do.
    I never cheerleaded the leave campaign, supported them or delivered a leaflet for them.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sandpit said:

    I’m still trying and failing badly to learn Russian. Maybe my mind is still thinking of the positive side of not being able to converse with the in-laws! That said, the father-in-law was an Air Force pilot, so we once spent an evening and a bottle of vodka talking about flying planes in hand gestures!

    I’ll welcome machine translation when it can understand the dozen or more meanings of “Insh’Allah” used in Arabia!
    I discovered last night (while learning Hungarian) that Pasternak means parsnip. Doctor Zhivago will never seem quite the same.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited January 2019

    You've mixed up leaders and parties in your comparison.
    Jim Sillars is (assuming he's still a member) on the left of the SNP, which I sorta agree with. He also supports Brexit being undemocratically imposed on Scotland. If he was SNP leader I'd deplore him even more than I do now.
    You sorta agree with 'Brexit being undemocratically imposed on Scotland' it is happening a few decades ago and it isn't an issue you care too much about?

    Just from the way you wrote it it doesn't sound like you do.... also Brexit is happening now not a couple of decades ago.

    Imagine Nicola Sturgeon supported a plastic bag tax a couple of decades ago, you agree with the idea but it isn't an issue you care deeply about. Would you now deplore Nicola Sturgeon for that reason?!

    It just doesn't make much sense, I didn't state earlier that I hate the idea of N. Ireland reunited with the rest of Ireland to clarify...
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 685
    edited January 2019
    Sandpit said:

    I’m still trying and failing badly to learn Russian. Maybe my mind is still thinking of the positive side of not being able to converse with the in-laws! That said, the father-in-law was an Air Force pilot, so we once spent an evening and a bottle of vodka talking about flying planes in hand gestures!

    I’ll welcome machine translation when it can understand the dozen or more meanings of “Insh’Allah” used in Arabia!
    Have become fluent in French so I can understand my partner better and do ok in german, Farsi and chinese. It helps in business but not critical. It does help understand personality and culture.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    notme2 said:

    I think it’s the indefinite aspect of it that makes it unpalatable to so many. We become tied into something with perpetuity.
    There was a report the DUP could accept a 10 year limit, though usually the DUP deny reports they are softening. But given no one claims to want the backstop I truly do not understand why the EU won't bend on that point. I get it politically for those who look forward to no deal, but given everyone's comments about the border defending to the death a backstop which will cause what it's supposed to prevent just seems dumb. Why is it better to definitely go down that route than maybe in 10 years? Yes, cannot rely on a promise it'll be sorted out later and all that, but certain disaster now vs possibly a decade from now?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Oh and just glancing over at an ST article. Apparently we have plans for invoking martial law. Brexit really is going swimmingly.

    *if* there is rioting in the streets

    I would be very surprised - Brexit or no Brexit - if there wasn’t a contingency plan somewhere in a drawer on martial law to quell rioting
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    notme2 said:

    Leave are not a government. They were a campaigning group. A group that no government should consider themselves bound by. The result was to leave, that’s it, leave. You can use whatever inference you want.

    I voted leave, but made no assumption that we would be leaving the single market. I didn’t think any pm would be irresponsible enough to do so. I don’t like the EU, but I don’t want to stop buying and selling widgets with them as easily as we currently do.
    I never cheerleaded the leave campaign, supported them or delivered a leaflet for them.
    Tough shit then. You’re as buggered as the rest of us by the Leave campaign but you were dumb enough to vote for it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,138

    Don't be so utterly ridiculous. I travel extensively for my work - in the US, Europe and Asia. I am speaking from personal experience. We organise conferences in multiple countries - most recently in Brazil, China and Japan - and do do them all in English. Why? Because it is the language in our market that everyone speaks.

    I am not denigrating the UK by pointing this out. It is a statement of fact.
    You take the worst possible interpretation of any possible event, turn it up to eleven, and then put turboboosters under it and raise it to the power of ten. It's your "thing", it's what YOU DO and I bet makes you a nightmare to live with too.

    I travel extensively too and you offer no unique or special insights. People probably blithely agree with you to save themselves the trouble, and then skink off to the pub together later without inviting you, whilst you nurse the bottle by yourself in your own hotel room.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    What happens if Ireland does nothing in the case of a No Deal and leaves the border as it is? Clearly it would make life easier for the Irish, but how would it help the UK in practical terms?
    It would mean we could also agree to leave the border as it is, completely obviating the need for the backstop language in the Withdrawal Agreement.
  • British English carries a prestige (or Queen's English, if you prefer) over and above native speakers in Canada or Australia.

    We might just have to agree to disagree on this.

    Most non-native speakers cannot tell the difference between English accents. In fact, many non-English people struggle with it - just as you and I would struggle to differentiate between a Derry and a Belfast accent, but both would be as clear as day to Mr Brooke.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    edited January 2019

    What happens if Ireland does nothing in the case of a No Deal and leaves the border as it is? Clearly it would make life easier for the Irish, but how would it help the UK in practical terms?

    I have no idea, the whole issue has hugely confused me, I am just going on the widely commented on negative impacts for us and them, which if they believe they don't seem to care about.

    If they might well just leave it as is then the whole thing looks even more manufactured an outrage and thus even more reasonable to be flexible on.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    kle4 said:

    He in particular seems to very eager to have no deal, I hope for Ireland's sake it is not as bad as feared because he sure doesn't care if it hits them.
    Taken at face value, it is difficult to understand the Irish official position unless they don't believe no deal will happen. Because, sans the backstop, having a withdrawal agreement and transition period in place is obviously better for them than having neither. I don't think anyone disputes that, do they? So the position that it's "backstop" or no deal doesn't make logical sense (ignoring the political cost of backing down). The only other interpretation is that they don't really think the backstop is necessary to maintain the absence of a hard border in Northern Ireland, although that doesn't resolve the problem that a hard border with the rest of the UK causes them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,345
    edited January 2019
    Charles said:

    *if* there is rioting in the streets

    I would be very surprised - Brexit or no Brexit - if there wasn’t a contingency plan somewhere in a drawer on martial law to quell rioting
    Especially how piss poor the authorities were with dealing with the rioting in 2010. There was clearly no real plans of how to deal with widespread disorder. I would have hoped the government / MET had since devised plans (regardless of brexit) in the case that there was some attempt at a repeat.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Diane Abbott tops the list of abused woman MPs, a favourite target of the Tory supporters in right wing press and a favourite of the threatening far right types...

    Another complete coincidence I'm sure....
    Did Labour explain their methodology for that stat?

    I suspect they conflate “criticism” with “abuse”.

    For example is “you’re an idiot, how could you believe something so stupid” - is that abuse or criticism?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    kle4 said:

    He in particular seems to very eager to have no deal, I hope for Ireland's sake it is not as bad as feared because he sure doesn't care if it hits them.
    Coventry said he would back an extension of Article 50, Juncker backed a permanent Customs Union for the whole UK yesterday.

    The EU, probably correctly, actually thinks the Commons will vote for a more BINO Brexit than May's Deal rather than No Deal given Parliament may well vote to extend Article 50 and rule out No Deal this week and 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year
  • DavidL said:


    What I think is clear is that our present government and indeed our PM have done a very, very poor job to date. They have been disunited, secretive, incompetent, weak and unfocused. That cannot be the approach for the next stage. We need people in charge who have some concept of what they are doing. Finding people like that is not looking straightforward at the moment. If May moves on, as she surely must, is there a way back for Osborne? I would like a team of him and Mandelson to lead a technical team that negotiates our trade agreement. We will get a better deal and a better relationship with the EU going forward without the resentments that Alastair fears.

    Mandelson might be a good idea but Osborne ???

    Osborne doesn't do proper preparation or attention to details **.

    Look at Osborne's attempt at playing big international businessman with nuclear power stations as an example.

    ** Though that makes him no different to the rest of Westminster and Whitehall.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,392

    Ahh the inevitable ignorant commentm. Firstly not sure how you can understand the word ‘proper’ as meaning fascist.
    The reason so many come to work in service industries here is so that they can work and learn English. I have never met someone who has worked in the service industry abroad in order to improve their prospects in a career outside of hospitality.
    On the other hand I have met plenty of Europeans normally coming here to learn English but work in hospitality in order to improve their prospects in all forms of business
    A hole in your education then. The Institute de francais in Villefranche invariably has American students who are aiming for a career in the diplomatic servce. Also a lesser number of Chinese and Japanese students with the same purpose. Even the Queen of Norway so obviously there are no limits to non-waiters who want to learn 'proper French'.
  • kle4 said:

    I have no idea, the whole issue has hugely confused me, I am just going on the widely commented on negative impacts for us and them, which if they believe they don't seem to care about.

    If they might well just leave it as is then the whole thing looks even more manufactured an outrage and thus even more reasonable to be flexible on.

    My guess is that is where the fudge will be should push come to shove. The Irish will not do anything and will carry on as normal. In practical terms, that will help them, but it will not help us. We will still be facing all the problems that No Deal brings and we would still have to sign up to the backstop if we wanted to do a deal.

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Sandpit said:

    Abusing someone for being an illiterate and innumerate hypocrite is not the same as abusing her because she’s black and female. Tory supporters dish out plenty of the former to Ms Abbott.
    Yes the silly Black woman is always getting laughed at like the other day when she claimed Labour weren't 6 points behind in the polls. Luckily the Tories were there to correct her with their excellent mathematical skills where the average involves ignoring all the other polls and just listening to the one with the big Tory lead.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Re: "martial law". Who is going to be doing the rioting and what will they be rioting about?

    The French appear to have been rioting every weekend for 2-3 months.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Charles said:

    Did Labour explain their methodology for that stat?

    I suspect they conflate “criticism” with “abuse”.

    For example is “you’re an idiot, how could you believe something so stupid” - is that abuse or criticism?
    Labour?!

    Is that a pet nickname you have for Amnesty International?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    edited January 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Coventry said he would back an extension of Article 50, Juncker backed a permanent Customs Union for the whole UK yesterday.

    The EU, probably correctly, actually thinks the Commons will vote for a more BINO Brexit than May's Deal rather than No Deal given Parliament may well vote to extend Article 50 and rule out No Deal this week and 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year
    What they say is not as important as what they do, and they are as guilt of unicornism as us. They might get lucky but it's not certain and then they will have to face up that they helped choose no deal. As for wgreeing a delay thats still pointless until we agree an outcome.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,801

    I think she took the advice of EU leaders.

    For about 9 months after the referendum result all we heard from Europe was that the four freedoms were indivisible and we couldn't be in the Single Market and end FoM. May decided that honouring the result meant ending FoM and therefore on EU leaders red lines that meant leaving the SM.

    If EU leaders were more flexible and willing to consider having a Single Market without FoM then May would have probably acted differently. But they didn't.
    I want a unicorn, unfortunately nature hasn't been flexible and willing enough to give me one.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    There was a report the DUP could accept a 10 year limit, though usually the DUP deny reports they are softening. But given no one claims to want the backstop I truly do not understand why the EU won't bend on that point. I get it politically for those who look forward to no deal, but given everyone's comments about the border defending to the death a backstop which will cause what it's supposed to prevent just seems dumb. Why is it better to definitely go down that route than maybe in 10 years? Yes, cannot rely on a promise it'll be sorted out later and all that, but certain disaster now vs possibly a decade from now?
    Especially as a government could easily extend it quietly in 10 years. That, to me, suggests they see it as a trump card in trade negotiations (as Macron carelessly let slip)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,138
    Roger said:

    Like you I work all over the world (32 countries at the last count) and I meet Colonel Blimps like Casino Royale all too often. My work is freelance and very competitive and thus a survival of those who can do their jobs well. The bane of my life is meeting clowns who think being from England alone makes them more gifted than the locals.
    Lol. You're the biggest prat on the website, and profoundly ignorant.

    But, like I said, we just pity you. Noone takes a word you say seriously.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    edited January 2019

    You take the worst possible interpretation of any possible event, turn it up to eleven, and then put turboboosters under it and raise it to the power of ten. It's your "thing", it's what YOU DO and I bet makes you a nightmare to live with too.

    I travel extensively too and you offer no unique or special insights. People probably blithely agree with you to save themselves the trouble, and then skink off to the pub together later without inviting you, whilst you nurse the bottle by yourself in your own hotel room.

    I am afraid that not agreeing with you does not make me wrong. If you do travel extensively for work, it's clear to me that you do so with your eyes and ears closed. I am not sure what your personal abuse of me achieves, but clearly it makes you feel better, so who am I to complain?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,115

    Mandelson might be a good idea but Osborne ???

    Osborne doesn't do proper preparation or attention to details **.

    Look at Osborne's attempt at playing big international businessman with nuclear power stations as an example.

    ** Though that makes him no different to the rest of Westminster and Whitehall.
    Osborne ran the UK government through the coalition and then Tory majority ruthlessly and efficiently. Of course not everything went right but considering what he inherited the results were little short of astonishing. If you think that happened without any attention to details, well, you're welcome to your opinion.

    In so far as nuclear power stations are concerned it was May that signed up to the Hinkley Point scheme that is going to undermine manufacturing competitiveness in this country for decades, not Osborne.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    Independent MP for Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd having voted for May's Deal says he will now vote to extend Article 50 and the Cooper amendment
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Tough shit then. You’re as buggered as the rest of us by the Leave campaign but you were dumb enough to vote for it.

    Do not hide behind innuendo and hyperbole Alistair - tell us what you really think :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I am afraid that not agreeing with you does not make me wrong. If you do travel extensively for work, it's clear to me that you do so with your eyes and ears closed. I am not sure what your personal abuse of me achieves, but clearly it makes you feel better, so who am I to complain?

    Dare I suggest that the truth is somewhere between your two extreme positions?

    The most important thing in business dealings is to understand and be understood, even when what’s under discussion is very complex and detailed.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Why is Jim Sheridan still a member of the Labour party? Why is Chris Williamson still a Labour MP. Why was Jenny Rathbone allowed back into Labour?

    It is true that I would love an anti-racist Labour party and that I opposed Jeremy Corbyn's leadership in 2015 and 2016 - and continue to oppose it now - because he has stood shoulder to shoulder with anti-Semites for decades. I make absolutely no apologies for that. I would have no problem at all with an anti-racist Labour leader who wanted to nationalise the railways and other utilities. But if you want to pretend otherwise, so be it.


    Why do you support so passionately some of the MPs who didn't oppose racist legislation and oppose so passionately those who supported it?

    It is almost as if this racism thing is a cover, you actively want people back in charge who were happy to see racist legislation pass that deeply affect many people's lives because you disagree with the politics of those who oppose the racism and now use racism as an excuse.

    Look if stopping the left is more important to you than opposing racism then fair enough it just isn't a very moral argument. I myself couldn't support racism in such a way which is why I only started voting for Labour in 2017.
  • Sandpit said:

    Dare I suggest that the truth is somewhere between your two extreme positions?

    The most important thing in business dealings is to understand and be understood, even when what’s under discussion is very complex and detailed.

    Well, indeed. I am not sure how my position is extreme, though.

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:


    Ken Clarke?
    Possibly. On the Tory side it is hard to think of anyone else. Chris Patten perhaps?

    If Paddy Ashdown was still with us then he might have been a contender.

    Labour ..... errr....

    Any HoL options?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,115

    Lol. You're the biggest prat on the website, and profoundly ignorant.

    But, like I said, we just pity you. Noone takes a word you say seriously.
    How about a break and a nice cup of tea? You're better than this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    edited January 2019
    kle4 said:

    What they say is not as important as what they do, and they are as guilt of unicornism as us. They might get lucky but it's not certain and then they will have to face up that they helped choose no deal. As for wgreeing a delay thats still pointless until we agree an outcome.
    In some respects it is not the EU who are guilty of unicornism but the ERG. By proposing a Withdrawal Agreement with no backstop they will not only not get a new Deal from the EU nor quite possibly even the No Deal they say they would be happy with but the Commons voting for a an extension of Article 50 and a permanent Customs Union or even a Remain v Deal referendum and the EU agreeing to that which would be an utter disaster for the ERG and hard Brexiteers
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    DavidL said:

    Osborne ran the UK government through the coalition and then Tory majority ruthlessly and efficiently. Of course not everything went right but considering what he inherited the results were little short of astonishing. If you think that happened without any attention to details, well, you're welcome to your opinion.

    In so far as nuclear power stations are concerned it was May that signed up to the Hinkley Point scheme that is going to undermine manufacturing competitiveness in this country for decades, not Osborne.
    An interesting story doing the rounds today on nuclear power - Bill Gates offering $1bn of his own cash and $1bn of other private investment for development of small-scale molten salt reactors.

    https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Bill-Gates-comes-to-Washington-selling-the-13561705.php

    There’s a great opportunity there to get in at the bottom of this technology if, as expected, the US Congress can’t agree on it (because they can’t agree on anything).
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,280
    Sandpit said:


    I’m still trying and failing badly to learn Russian.

    Very few native English speakers get anywhere in Russian without classroom instruction and tutoring. You're coming from English which has almost no declension to a strongly declined language with a different alphabet, no present tense of the verb "to be" (with a few exceptions) and no definite or indefinite articles.

    If you really want to learn it do a total immersion course. After my Iraq PTSD meltdown I did 12 weeks Russian language immersion in SPb for something to do and I ended up staying Russia for nearly a decade . It was very good and AFAICR pretty cheap.
  • Why do you support so passionately some of the MPs who didn't oppose racist legislation and oppose so passionately those who supported it?

    It is almost as if this racism thing is a cover, you actively want people back in charge who were happy to see racist legislation pass that deeply affect many people's lives because you disagree with the politics of those who oppose the racism and now use racism as an excuse.

    Look if stopping the left is more important to you than opposing racism then fair enough it just isn't a very moral argument. I myself couldn't support racism in such a way which is why I only started voting for Labour in 2017.

    Which MPs do I support passionately?

    Who did you vote for before 2017 out of interest?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,801
    If we're talking about overseas experiences, I currently spend about 10% of my existence in airports (going for that GGL status!). The rule has generally becomes the first person to mention the B word outside of meetings does a shot of whatever local spirit there is. Repeat offenders get time in the naughty corner.

    Overall I find most people give no fucks outside of official business.

    We severely overestimate the impact of Brexit in the rest of the world, it's gone from being something of mild interest to being "call me when it's done".

    While we've been navel gazing for the last three years, the rest of the world outside of Europe has moved on and completely lost interest.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,138

    I am afraid that not agreeing with you does not make me wrong. If you do travel extensively for work, it's clear to me that you do so with your eyes and ears closed. I am not sure what your personal abuse of me achieves, but clearly it makes you feel better, so who am I to complain?

    My eyes and ears are fully open. I just have very different experiences to you and object to the arrogance with which you assert you are right.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,115
    HYUFD said:

    In some respects it is not the EU who are guilty of unicornism but the ERG. By proposing a Withdrawal Agreement with no backstop they will not only not get a new Deal from the EU nor quite possibly even the No Deal they say they would be happy with but the Commons voting for a an extension of Article 50 and a permanent Customs Union or even a Remain v Deal referendum and the EU agreeing to that which would be an utter disaster for the ERG and hard Brexiteers
    Is that really unicornism? Looks like pretty basic stupidity to me.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,392
    edited January 2019

    Totally agree. It is embarrassing, profoundly ignorant and incredibly annoying. But it is not fascism!!

    I thought he might be offended if I called him 'Embrrassing profoundly ignorant and incredibly annoying'!.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Labour?!

    Is that a pet nickname you have for Amnesty International?
    I’ve only seen Labour politicians refer to the claim that Abbott gets more than half the abuse aimed at all women MPs (sounds like carefully selecting your sample).

    If it’s Amnesty then my question still stands
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,138
    DavidL said:

    How about a break and a nice cup of tea? You're better than this.
    Roger's insults are like water off a duck's back; I just enjoy telling him how much I don't care.
  • My experience of PB is that only SeanT does personal insults well - and then only in those fleeting moments when the booze has electrified his brain rather than consumed it!! The rest of us are just not very good at it because we do not have his skills as a writer.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,138
    Roger said:

    I thought he might be offended if I called him 'Embrrassing profoundly ignorant and incredibly annoying'!.
    I don't find anything you say offensive.

    I can only be offended by serious people who have a modicum of perception and competence.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Dura_Ace said:

    Very few native English speakers get anywhere in Russian without classroom instruction and tutoring. You're coming from English which has almost no declension to a strongly declined language with a different alphabet, no present tense of the verb "to be" (with a few exceptions) and no definite or indefinite articles.

    If you really want to learn it do a total immersion course. After my Iraq PTSD meltdown I did 12 weeks Russian language immersion in SPb for something to do and I ended up staying Russia for nearly a decade . It was very good and AFAICR pretty cheap.
    Yes, I’ve heard similar from others that the only way is to completely immerse yourself in it for a period of time.

    I think the break point for me will be if we are blessed with a family in the future, then I’ll have to understand or the wife and child will have their own secret way of talking!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,115
    Sandpit said:

    An interesting story doing the rounds today on nuclear power - Bill Gates offering $1bn of his own cash and $1bn of other private investment for development of small-scale molten salt reactors.

    https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Bill-Gates-comes-to-Washington-selling-the-13561705.php

    There’s a great opportunity there to get in at the bottom of this technology if, as expected, the US Congress can’t agree on it (because they can’t agree on anything).
    To me the truly incredible story in energy over the last 15 years has been the growth of renewables. Solar and wind have gone from being nice if expensive gestures to something that is capping the price at which oil and gas can be sold. I think that this has further to go in both waves and tides and the test for any other energy source is whether it is going to be competitive with them in 10-20 years time. Its a test that Hinkley fails quite spectacularly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    HYUFD said:

    In some respects it is not the EU who are guilty of unicornism but the ERG.
    It's both (and May and Corbyn too)
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Which MPs do I support passionately?

    Who did you vote for before 2017 out of interest?

    Those on the right of the party but I could imagine you doing some work for others in order to get the party rightwards, Smith maybe at a guess.

    Abstention back till 2005 (said 2010 once on here I think which was wrong)
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Charles said:

    I’ve only seen Labour politicians refer to the claim that Abbott gets more than half the abuse aimed at all women MPs (sounds like carefully selecting your sample).

    If it’s Amnesty then my question still stands
    I couldn't tell you their exact methodology, you'd have to look it up. It is more to go on than Tories claiming it is Labour's fault or somehow the left are more abusive to woman on just their say so or by right wing headlines.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,801
    Also on foreign experience, I find that the people most interested in Brexit are Germans. Most are pretty anti, they are worried that losing the UK from the EU will be bad for the pro-market agenda. The conclusion for most Germans seems to be that brexit will leave both sides weaker and less relevant globally. The EU loses a nuclear power and UN security council member, the UK loses the heft of the EU to push it's diplomatic agenda. Another concern is that once the UK does take up WTO membership and gets seats on standards setting boards it will no longer just acquiesce to EU requirements and may push for more global alignment with the US.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,280
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, I’ve heard similar from others that the only way is to completely immerse yourself in it for a period of time.

    I think the break point for me will be if we are blessed with a family in the future, then I’ll have to understand or the wife and child will have their own secret way of talking!
    My wife arrived in Russia from India not speaking one word of Russian but she studied like a demon and then, 9 months later, began a Dentistry degree taught in Russian. It can be dome!

    Having said that Russian dental techniques are a close cousin to those of dry stone walling so perhaps a completely encompassing understanding of the language wasn't necessary.
  • Those on the right of the party but I could imagine you doing some work for others in order to get the party rightwards, Smith maybe at a guess.

    Abstention back till 2005 (said 2010 once on here I think which was wrong)

    Passionate support for Owen Smith!!! Seriously??? Wonderful stuff.

    Who did you vote for before 2005?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    kle4 said:

    It's both (and May and Corbyn too)
    Given Juncker's backing for a permanent Customs Union last night though and the fact 301 MPs voted for one last year a Corbyn style Brexit is probably the likeliest outcome now
  • My eyes and ears are fully open. I just have very different experiences to you and object to the arrogance with which you assert you are right.

    Your lack of self-knowledge is one of the true joys of this site.

  • DavidL said:

    Osborne ran the UK government through the coalition and then Tory majority ruthlessly and efficiently. Of course not everything went right but considering what he inherited the results were little short of astonishing. If you think that happened without any attention to details, well, you're welcome to your opinion.

    In so far as nuclear power stations are concerned it was May that signed up to the Hinkley Point scheme that is going to undermine manufacturing competitiveness in this country for decades, not Osborne.
    You're talking about short term tactics not long term strategies with their effects.

    Policies such as student tuition fees, triple lock pensions and help to raise house prices helped the Conservatives tactically in the short term but are deeply damaging for the country (and the Conservatives) in the long term.

    That's exactly the mentality we don't need in EU negotiations.

    As to nuclear power stations, Osborne's fingerprints are all over it - google George Osborne Hinkley for evidence such as:

    ' The chancellor used his visit to China to secure support from Chinese investors despite reservations on the cost-effectiveness of the power plant '

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/25/george-osborne-presses-on-with-hinkley-power-station-despite-criticism

    or this:

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/798415847379374080

    Note that he manages to spell Hinkley wrong in that tweet.

    And a Shadow Chancellor who was caught unawares by the recession does not do attention to detail.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    DavidL said:

    Is that really unicornism? Looks like pretty basic stupidity to me.
    That too
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,392
    MaxPB said:

    If we're talking about overseas experiences, I currently spend about 10% of my existence in airports (going for that GGL status!). The rule has generally becomes the first person to mention the B word outside of meetings does a shot of whatever local spirit there is. Repeat offenders get time in the naughty corner.

    Overall I find most people give no fucks outside of official business.

    We severely overestimate the impact of Brexit in the rest of the world, it's gone from being something of mild interest to being "call me when it's done".

    While we've been navel gazing for the last three years, the rest of the world outside of Europe has moved on and completely lost interest.

    It's rather sad. Two years ago it was a hot topic in France. Now it seems of no interest to anyone. Even the pitiful expressions have gone. France seems to be prospering and despite what we hear even Macron seems liked well enough. A letting agent told me that the Americans are now their biggest customers. Whether for the ambience or to get away from Trump I don't know
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    DavidL said:

    To me the truly incredible story in energy over the last 15 years has been the growth of renewables. Solar and wind have gone from being nice if expensive gestures to something that is capping the price at which oil and gas can be sold. I think that this has further to go in both waves and tides and the test for any other energy source is whether it is going to be competitive with them in 10-20 years time. Its a test that Hinkley fails quite spectacularly.
    Absolutely, although there’s been a fair amount of subsidy and taxes on O&G to get there, we are now at the point where renewables are able to provide significant energy at low marginal cost and new developments can work without the subsidies.

    Solar and nuclear are both going big in this part of the world, where they want to export what comes out of the ground, and the peak load is for air conditioning during the day rather than heating at night.

    With hindsight Hinckley was the wrong project, I’m much more interested in Gates’ idea of molten salt and the town-scale reactors that Rolls-Royce have been working on, based on military naval technology.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Passionate support for Owen Smith!!! Seriously??? Wonderful stuff.

    Who did you vote for before 2005?

    Read it again, those on the right of the party but I could imagine you doing some work for others ...... , Smith maybe. Not your a passionate supporter of but you would assist to beat Corbyn.

    I voted in 2005, Lib Dem, before that didn't vote.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,138

    Your lack of self-knowledge is one of the true joys of this site.

    My self-awareness is unmatched (I make much more money betting than you do) and my knowledge more extensive than yours.

    Not my fault you can't bring yourself to admit it.

    But if that fantasy brings some joy to you, I'm happy. You desperately need some in your life.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    edited January 2019
    Roger said:

    It's rather sad. Two years ago it was a hot topic in France. Now it seems of no interest to anyone. Even the pitiful expressions have gone. France seems to be prospering and despite what we hear even Macron seems liked well enough. A letting agent told me that the Americans are now their biggest customers. Whether for the ambience or to get away from Trump I don't know

    File under things you won't see reported in the UK ...

    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1089209667497152512

  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    I couldn't tell you their exact methodology, you'd have to look it up. It is more to go on than Tories claiming it is Labour's fault or somehow the left are more abusive to woman on just their say so or by right wing headlines.
    I’d be very sceptical with regards to the abuse Abbott receives. I’ve seen plenty of criticism that she can’t add up and is incompetent - I think that is fairly accurate. I’ve also seen people claim it is because she is woman and black. If Labour frequently sent a white man to say exactly the same innumerate drivel I am sure they would see the same criticism. Abbott is the Grayling of the Left
  • MaxPB said:

    Also on foreign experience, I find that the people most interested in Brexit are Germans. Most are pretty anti, they are worried that losing the UK from the EU will be bad for the pro-market agenda. The conclusion for most Germans seems to be that brexit will leave both sides weaker and less relevant globally. The EU loses a nuclear power and UN security council member, the UK loses the heft of the EU to push it's diplomatic agenda. Another concern is that once the UK does take up WTO membership and gets seats on standards setting boards it will no longer just acquiesce to EU requirements and may push for more global alignment with the US.

    My experience is that most people are bemused and/or amused.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    Cooper on Marr is it? I wonder if she'll have a decent answer as to why after this much time they won't be able to reach a conclusion on Brexit but yet more time means they will. Thoroughly dishonest person. Remain is an honourable position to hold, just state it openly, not this remain by the backdoor business.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Dura_Ace said:

    My wife arrived in Russia from India not speaking one word of Russian but she studied like a demon and then, 9 months later, began a Dentistry degree taught in Russian. It can be dome!

    Having said that Russian dental techniques are a close cousin to those of dry stone walling so perhaps a completely encompassing understanding of the language wasn't necessary.
    Ha, I’ve been to a Russian dentist and concur wholly with that sentiment.

    I can also confirm that Russian training aircraft work the same as western ones - they stall and spin, and can be recovered in the same standard ways from those upsets. At least I think that was what the father-in-law was saying past the empty bottle of vodka in the middle of the table!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413

    File under things you won't see reported in the UK ...
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1089209667497152512

    Good for him. I'm sure when everyone in France talks about May and Brexit they always remember to point out May is leading in some polls, level or only just behind in others.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,115

    You're talking about short term tactics not long term strategies with their effects.

    Policies such as student tuition fees, triple lock pensions and help to raise house prices helped the Conservatives tactically in the short term but are deeply damaging for the country (and the Conservatives) in the long term.

    That's exactly the mentality we don't need in EU negotiations.

    As to nuclear power stations, Osborne's fingerprints are all over it - google George Osborne Hinkley for evidence such as:

    ' The chancellor used his visit to China to secure support from Chinese investors despite reservations on the cost-effectiveness of the power plant '

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/25/george-osborne-presses-on-with-hinkley-power-station-despite-criticism

    or this:

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/798415847379374080

    Note that he manages to spell Hinkley wrong in that tweet.

    And a Shadow Chancellor who was caught unawares by the recession does not do attention to detail.
    So few anticipated the 2008 crash that they made a rather brilliant film about it. Keeping our housing market relatively stable was an absolutely essential element of keeping our banks solvent thereafter. If house prices had fallen 30% after 2010 no bank would have survived without further capital inputs from the State. Latterly his tax policies made BTL much less attractive which is desirable if home ownership is to be more widespread.

    The policy of encouraging foreign investment when we were struggling to make adequate investment ourselves made sense if you wished to keep the economy growing/stable which he did. Had we done that internally there would have been a major reduction in consumption leading to a significant recession and loss of employment. You can make the argument that that is something we needed to do but no one can argue that Osborne's pro-employment policies have not worked beyond his wildest dreams. The terms of that investment were of course a matter for the decision makers at the time.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,801
    Roger said:

    It's rather sad. Two years ago it was a hot topic in France. Now it seems of no interest to anyone. Even the pitiful expressions have gone. France seems to be prospering and despite what we hear even Macron seems liked well enough. A letting agent told me that the Americans are now their biggest customers. Whether for the ambience or to get away from Trump I don't know
    Prospering is not the right word. They have fallen behind Brexit Britain in terms of economic growth, industry is sclerotic and the one major success story they have (Renault/Nissan) is about to be dismantled by the Japanese government. Macron overreached by claiming to be the force against populism, given that he really only beat Le Pen. Since his election European politics has fractured even more.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    File under things you won't see reported in the UK ...

    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1089209667497152512

    Indeed, Macron is doing well and sitting very pretty in what is a likely run-off against perennial losers the FN.

    As you say, you wouldn’t believe it from what you read, among the nasty Francophobe PBers and the blimps and bumpkins in the rightwing press.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Given Juncker's backing for a permanent Customs Union last night though and the fact 301 MPs voted for one last year a Corbyn style Brexit is probably the likeliest outcome now
    Why do you think May will propose it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    It's almost as though she has something else in mind, what could it be?
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1089468556302012416
  • My self-awareness is unmatched (I make much more money betting than you do) and my knowledge more extensive than yours.

    Not my fault you can't bring yourself to admit it.

    But if that fantasy brings some joy to you, I'm happy. You desperately need some in your life.

    Ha, ha x

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    I’d be very sceptical with regards to the abuse Abbott receives. I’ve seen plenty of criticism that she can’t add up and is incompetent - I think that is fairly accurate. I’ve also seen people claim it is because she is woman and black. If Labour frequently sent a white man to say exactly the same innumerate drivel I am sure they would see the same criticism. Abbott is the Grayling of the Left
    Yes but using the same measure plenty of people deserve the criticism they recieve, more so those in government who actually massively affect people's lives. Also Diane can't add up as much as Hammond and the many other MPs who have made mistakes with numbers on air.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Casino

    Please make it stop. You are embarrassing yourself today.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,345
    edited January 2019
    Venezuela's top military representative to the US has defected from Nicolás Maduro's government. Col José Luis Silva says he now recognises opposition leader Juan Guaidó as president instead.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,801

    My experience is that most people are bemused and/or amused.

    I find disappointment to be the most common reaction from Europeans. From everyone else it's usually "who really cares".
  • You sorta agree with 'Brexit being undemocratically imposed on Scotland' it is happening a few decades ago and it isn't an issue you care too much about?

    Just from the way you wrote it it doesn't sound like you do.... also Brexit is happening now not a couple of decades ago.

    Imagine Nicola Sturgeon supported a plastic bag tax a couple of decades ago, you agree with the idea but it isn't an issue you care deeply about. Would you now deplore Nicola Sturgeon for that reason?!

    It just doesn't make much sense, I didn't state earlier that I hate the idea of N. Ireland reunited with the rest of Ireland to clarify...
    No reason you should know much about Sillars (apart from him starting as a Lab mp), but when he was an elected pol he was in favour of Scottish Indy within the EU. First principle is that the people who live, work and vote in Scotland should decide its future, whether it's EU membership, Brexit or keeping a bunch of over bred aristos as heads of state. I certainly deplore those who abandon first principles as they sink into reactionary senescence.

    Not really sure what your plastic bag analogy is about. Scotland (with Sturgeon as FM) introduced the bag tax in 2014 which I approve of. If she'd started to backtrack or kept quiet about it to appease Mail readers, I'd certainly hold her in contempt.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    kle4 said:

    It's almost as though she has something else in mind, what could it be?
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1089468556302012416

    To make the Customs Union permanent not temporary as under May's Deal
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,138
    _Anazina_ said:

    Casino

    Please make it stop. You are embarrassing yourself today.

    You're back?

    What a shame. I hoped you'd been banned for good. You were an utterly toxic presence on this site.

    Let's hope you've learned your lesson.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    _Anazina_ said:

    Indeed, Macron is doing well and sitting very pretty in what is a likely run-off against perennial losers the FN.

    As you say, you wouldn’t believe it from what you read, among the nasty Francophobe PBers and the blimps and bumpkins in the rightwing press.
    There are friends of mine in France who now strongly support Macron.

    They were former Gaullists.

    Macron has 30 per cent of the vote. But, it would be interested to understand how much of that vote is former Socialists (the party that Macron ostensibly supported before En Marche) and how much Gaullists.

    Friends of mine in France who used to support the Socialists can't abide Macron.

    You are certainly deluded if you believe Macron is "left wing".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    edited January 2019
    Charles said:

    Why do you think May will propose it?
    May won't propose it, Corbyn will and given a permanent Customs Union was rejected by just 307 votes to 301 by MPs last summer and Juncker backed a permanent Customs Union last night it takes less than 10 MPs to switch for the Commons to vote for a permanent Customs Union.

    May will then either have to accept the Commons decision or set up a constitutional crisis and a clash between the executive and the legislature and probably the resignation of half her Cabinet and her Chancellor given Hammond has reportedly already proposed a permanent Customs Union to her
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872

    There are friends of mine in France who now strongly support Macron.

    They were former Gaullists.

    Macron has 30 per cent of the vote. But, it would be interested to understand how much of that vote is former Socialists (the party that Macron ostensibly supported before En Marche) and how much Gaullists.

    Friends of mine in France who used to support the Socialists can't abide Macron.

    You are certainly deluded if you believe Macron is "left wing".
    Macron is basically a Cleggite LD, Clegg even attended Macron's London rally
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,280
    Charles said:



    Why do you think May will propose it?

    She'd take it over N O D E A L. Using her formidable powers of self-interestd barefaced lying she could characterise it as a temporary transition.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,801

    There are friends of mine in France who now strongly support Macron.

    They were former Gaullists.

    Macron has 30 per cent of the vote. But, it would be interested to understand how much of that vote is former Socialists (the party that Macron ostensibly supported before En Marche) and how much Gaullists.

    Friends of mine in France who used to support the Socialists can't abide Macron.

    You are certainly deluded if you believe Macron is "left wing".
    Macron is a former banker and essentially an economic neo-liberalist coupled with neo-conservative diplomatic policy. If he were British then he'd most certainly be a Tory.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265





    I can only be offended by serious people who have a modicum of perception and competence.
    I have read many of your postings on various subject, but I had never noticed until this particular thread, that you are in fact a deluded arrogant arsehole. I hope this demonstrates sufficient perception for you to take offence.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Penddu said:







    I can only be offended by serious people who have a modicum of perception and competence.
    I have read many of your postings on various subject, but I had never noticed until this particular thread, that you are in fact a deluded arrogant arsehole. I hope this demonstrates sufficient perception for you to take offence.


    Although it does seem that I have demonstrated a lack of competence in using blockquotes....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,138
    MaxPB said:

    Macron is a former banker and essentially an economic neo-liberalist coupled with neo-conservative diplomatic policy. If he were British then he'd most certainly be a Tory.
    He's like Osborne merged with A C Grayling.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    edited January 2019
    MaxPB said:

    Macron is a former banker and essentially an economic neo-liberalist coupled with neo-conservative diplomatic policy. If he were British then he'd most certainly be a Tory.
    No, he would be an Orange Book LD. Macron is also a social liberal and very pro EU so not a natural Tory, the Tories sister party remains Les Republicans not En Marche but he could certainly have been in the Cameron and Clegg Coalition government and Osborne is also a big fan of him like Clegg
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,716
    Dura_Ace said:

    She'd take it over N O D E A L. Using her formidable powers of self-interestd barefaced lying she could characterise it as a temporary transition.
    I think she wants to engineer a situation where she can paint Labour and the EU as the enemy of Brexit, while kicking the can at least a year down the road and valiantly fighting to deliver on the will of the people.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Sandpit said:

    Dare I suggest that the truth is somewhere between your two extreme positions?

    The most important thing in business dealings is to understand and be understood, even when what’s under discussion is very complex and detailed.
    I think this is probably the truth. In some areas it will matter more in some less. I am still not sure what CR meant by proper, and it probably doesn’t matter. Again if having the right accent and school tie matters it is probably not his fault!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,138
    Penddu said:

    I have read many of your postings on various subject, but I had never noticed until this particular thread, that you are in fact a deluded arrogant arsehole. I hope this demonstrates sufficient perception for you to take offence.
    Although it does seem that I have demonstrated a lack of competence in using blockquotes....

    Lol!!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    MaxPB said:

    Macron is a former banker and essentially an economic neo-liberalist coupled with neo-conservative diplomatic policy. If he were British then he'd most certainly be a Tory.
    I think that is a correct reading of Macron's political situation.

    The Gilets Jaunes has now been taken over by extremists, but at outset it was a spontaneous working class protest movement, much like Solidarnosc or the Rebecca Rioters or the Peterloo Protests.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    Not true. From 1950 to 1992 the Tories overwhelmingly won among women.
    Far from overwhelmingly - though women were more inclined to vote Tory than men. I believe Labour led in 1966.
  • DavidL said:


    So few anticipated the 2008 crash that they made a rather brilliant film about it. Keeping our housing market relatively stable was an absolutely essential element of keeping our banks solvent thereafter. If house prices had fallen 30% after 2010 no bank would have survived without further capital inputs from the State. Latterly his tax policies made BTL much less attractive which is desirable if home ownership is to be more widespread.

    The policy of encouraging foreign investment when we were struggling to make adequate investment ourselves made sense if you wished to keep the economy growing/stable which he did. Had we done that internally there would have been a major reduction in consumption leading to a significant recession and loss of employment. You can make the argument that that is something we needed to do but no one can argue that Osborne's pro-employment policies have not worked beyond his wildest dreams. The terms of that investment were of course a matter for the decision makers at the time.

    I see you can't defend triple lock pensions and student tuition fees David :wink:

    And are you really trying to say that the nuclear power stations fiasco was about 'encouraging foreign investment' ?

    Osborne was behind the game in 2008 - you know that, I know that, we all know that - and that despite the warning signs in the economic data being there from when he became Shadow Chancellor ** and then the rather high profile case of a British bank collapsing.

    There was never any danger of a 30% fall in house prices after 2010 but Osborne was more than happy to boost house prices to keep the oldies feeling affluent and voting Conservative.

    ** household borrowing at £100bn per year while home ownership was falling, government borrowing rising towards the end of an economic cycle, house prices soaring while share prices stagnated, falling industrial production but rapidly rising retail sales and trade deficit.
This discussion has been closed.