politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » FBI officers in Florida make pre-dawn raid to arrest Trump ass

Fire and Fury is great if you want some background on Stone.

Second

Fourth.

Bloody gammons can't get anything right.

How long until Mueller zeroes in on people closer to home?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/13/nigel-farage-mueller-russia-investigation-trump-latest-jerome-corsi-claim

Wow, it seems like Eliot Ness is closing in on his Al Capone. Maybe they will get him for his unpublished tax returns

TheScreamingEagles said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Much as I'd like to see Trump in court and then doing prison time it isn't going to undo what has happened over the last couple of years.

Aye. I fear Trump in the first of many white nationalist Presidents.

I hope you are wrong. I see Trump and Brexit as the last hurrahs in the death throws of the international hatred filled disease called nationalism

Mind you, it is rather amusing to consider the juxtaposition WikiLeaks/Clinton against Guardian-NYT/Panama Papers.

I see there’s a Dem Congressman with a worse grasp of history than Hollywood/Morris Dancer

https://twitter.com/peterwelch/status/1087829080316301313?s=21

https://twitter.com/peterwelch/status/1087857790901735426?s=21

Stereotomy said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Much as I'd like to see Trump in court and then doing prison time it isn't going to undo what has happened over the last couple of years.

Yep. Liberals still haven't really gotten their heads around Trump being elected. They don't want to understand politics as a never-ending existential fight, just an amusing diversion while the big institutions keep chugging along in the status quo.

So now instead of truly wanting to fight, they just want teacher to come back into the classroom, set things straight, tell them that actually it's all okay and Trump never really won, and everything can go back to normal.

I see this kind of argument a lot, that the US left didn't understand the Trump coalition and won't win until it does. I agree with the first half, but not the second. After all, it's not like Trump won by showing understanding of the Obama coalition. Nor Obama the Bush coalition. They all recognised where politics was moving to, not where it was at; and they all actively moved it there at the same time.

You don't win elections by refighting the last battle. And while Trump may or may not be followed by other like him, I don't think it's obvious that he will unless his opponents understand his coalition. That's not how it worked for his predecessors.

OblitusSumMe said:

Much as I'd like to see Trump in court and then doing prison time it isn't going to undo what has happened over the last couple of years.

It'll never come to that. He'll quit in exchange for a pardon if they get close to cracking Don Jr.

Richard_Nabavi said:

I have a question ion the US federal shutdown - do those employees who are not being paid eventually get all of their back-pay, and if so is that the case even if they are not classed as 'essential workers' and are therefore not currently working?

Not sure, I think not. Americans have a very different view of workers rights even in their public sector. I once had an American ask me what "redundancy" meant. They genuinely don't have it as a concept.

Richard_Nabavi said:

I have a question ion the US federal shutdown - do those employees who are not being paid eventually get all of their back-pay, and if so is that the case even if they are not classed as 'essential workers' and are therefore not currently working?

Congress traditionally ensures they get their back-pay when an agreement has been reached to end a shutdown.

But by the terms of their contract of employment they are NOT guaranteed to get that money.

If Farage is arrested, can it please be the case that it is done while he is in Brussels so that a European Arrest Warrant can be issued (sorry to keep making these requests God)

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I have a question ion the US federal shutdown - do those employees who are not being paid eventually get all of their back-pay, and if so is that the case even if they are not classed as 'essential workers' and are therefore not currently working?

Congress traditionally ensures they get their back-pay when an agreement has been reached to end a shutdown.

But by the terms of their contract of employment they are NOT guaranteed to get that money.

True, but I believe that it's already been stated that this time, they will.

(edit)
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/1/10/18176849/furloughed-federal-employees-back-pay

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I have a question ion the US federal shutdown - do those employees who are not being paid eventually get all of their back-pay, and if so is that the case even if they are not classed as 'essential workers' and are therefore not currently working?

Congress traditionally ensures they get their back-pay when an agreement has been reached to end a shutdown.

But by the terms of their contract of employment they are NOT guaranteed to get that money.

True, but I believe that it's already been stated that this time, they will.

(edit)
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/1/10/18176849/furloughed-federal-employees-back-pay

Ah thanks, that link answers the question.

Stereotomy said:

Quincel said:

Stereotomy said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Much as I'd like to see Trump in court and then doing prison time it isn't going to undo what has happened over the last couple of years.

Yep. Liberals still haven't really gotten their heads around Trump being elected. They don't want to understand politics as a never-ending existential fight, just an amusing diversion while the big institutions keep chugging along in the status quo.

So now instead of truly wanting to fight, they just want teacher to come back into the classroom, set things straight, tell them that actually it's all okay and Trump never really won, and everything can go back to normal.

I see this kind of argument a lot, that the US left didn't understand the Trump coalition and won't win until it does. I agree with the first half, but not the second. After all, it's not like Trump won by showing understanding of the Obama coalition. Nor Obama the Bush coalition. They all recognised where politics was moving to, not where it was at; and they all actively moved it there at the same time.

You don't win elections by refighting the last battle. And while Trump may or may not be followed by other like him, I don't think it's obvious that he will unless his opponents understand his coalition. That's not how it worked for his predecessors.

I agree with you, and that actually wasn't what I was saying at all, although maybe I didn't make that clear. I'm not saying that the Dems need to understand or compromise with Trumpism. I'm saying that liberals (mostly Dems but also a few of the more centrist republicans- e.g. Never-Trumpers) believe that there's a consensus, and that consensus has achieved an unassailable dominance so they don't really need to fight for it at all. Trump doesn't fit into that belief because it implies he could never be elected, so to maintain their belief, liberals have to tell themselves he never was elected- not really, not legitimately- or perhaps that he was elected but that doesn't count as winning because he can't get his agenda through Congress. They think of Trump as a collective nightmare that eventually we'll all wake up from.

It's the same misunderstanding that lead Obama to come up with a compromise position for healthcare then keep compromising it further and further while the GOP just banked his concessions then continued screaming about socialism. It's because liberals in the US don't truly see politics as an existential struggle, where you have to fight tooth and nail to survive, whereas conservatives do.

Kk, it was my misunderstanding. We both agree with each other's points.

So if I sent a "well done" text to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer for his revival of United's disastrous season I would be "looped in" to Man U?

Colour me unconvinced. Of course this does not mean that he has not done things for or on behalf of the Donald that Mueller would find of interest. Trump is getting to be quite a dangerous man to know.

OblitusSumMe said:

Much as I'd like to see Trump in court and then doing prison time it isn't going to undo what has happened over the last couple of years.

To drain the swamp we need him running for a 2nd term and knocked out of the park on votes and electoral college.

After that, yes, serious prison time and confiscation of assets.

Horrible creature.

Stereotomy said:

Quincel said:

Stereotomy said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Much as I'd like to see Trump in court and then doing prison time it isn't going to undo what has happened over the last couple of years.

Yep. Liberals still haven't really gotten their heads around Trump being elected. They don't want to understand politics as a never-ending existential fight, just an amusing diversion while the big institutions keep chugging along in the status quo.

So now instead of truly wanting to fight, they just want teacher to come back into the classroom, set things straight, tell them that actually it's all okay and Trump never really won, and everything can go back to normal.

I see this kind of argument a lot, that the US left didn't understand the Trump coalition and won't win until it does. I agree with the first half, but not the second. After all, it's not like Trump won by showing understanding of the Obama coalition. Nor Obama the Bush coalition. They all recognised where politics was moving to, not where it was at; and they all actively moved it there at the same time.

You don't win elections by refighting the last battle. And while Trump may or may not be followed by other like him, I don't think it's obvious that he will unless his opponents understand his coalition. That's not how it worked for his predecessors.

I agree with you, and that actually wasn't what I was saying at all, although maybe I didn't make that clear. I'm not saying that the Dems need to understand or compromise with Trumpism. I'm saying that liberals (mostly Dems but also a few of the more centrist republicans- e.g. Never-Trumpers) believe that there's a consensus, and that consensus has achieved an unassailable dominance so they don't really need to fight for it at all. Trump doesn't fit into that belief because it implies he could never be elected, so to maintain their belief, liberals have to tell themselves he never was elected- not really, not legitimately- or perhaps that he was elected but that doesn't count as winning because he can't get his agenda through Congress. They think of Trump as a collective nightmare that eventually we'll all wake up from.

It's the same misunderstanding that lead Obama to come up with a compromise position for healthcare then keep compromising it further and further while the GOP just banked his concessions then continued screaming about socialism. It's because liberals in the US don't truly see politics as an existential struggle, where you have to fight tooth and nail to survive, whereas conservatives do.

Horribly true. A lot of people like Trump, will vote for him again, and he may yet win again thru entirely legitimate means. The world is not nice and never has been.

FPT

rottenborough said:

Lessons from FL:

“The lesson for the Democrats is that, in going for the heart and soul of the progressive base, it can antagonize the other side. So what you gain in one place, you lose in another,” Tyson said. “We’ve seen the coalescing of the white vote and unless something happens to break this lock on white voters — and especially white independent males over 50 — I don’t expect Trump to lose in 2020.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/25/trump-2020-elections-florida-1125442

...

Says Ryan Tyson, "a top Florida Republican political consultant and data analyst".

Not entirely persuasive...

Nigel_Foremain said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I have a question ion the US federal shutdown - do those employees who are not being paid eventually get all of their back-pay, and if so is that the case even if they are not classed as 'essential workers' and are therefore not currently working?

Not sure, I think not. Americans have a very different view of workers rights even in their public sector. I once had an American ask me what "redundancy" meant. They genuinely don't have it as a concept.

Doesn’t sound like much fun.

I’d be in trouble if I even missed one months salary cheque.

TheJezziah said:

kinabalu said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Much as I'd like to see Trump in court and then doing prison time it isn't going to undo what has happened over the last couple of years.

To drain the swamp we need him running for a 2nd term and knocked out of the park on votes and electoral college.

After that, yes, serious prison time and confiscation of assets.

Horrible creature.

This is my thinking.

Best to see him defeated in a fair election rather than taken off to prison or taken out of the running in some way to give his crazy fans a n excuse to feel hard done by.

They would still cry foul but at least they would look like bad losers.

Then justice.

Robert Redford agrees with you...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/our-democracy-is-in-crisis-we-must-focus-on-2020--not-impeachment/2019/01/24/b51f1268-1ff6-11e9-9145-3f74070bbdb9_story.html

...now what movie of some relevance to the current situation was he in?

DavidL said:

Xenon said:

This whole Mueller investigation seems to just be a politically motivated way of getting rid of Trump.

The Russians favoured Trump and Sanders over Hilary and had a small social media presence pushing their preferred candidates. So what exactly?

I think that that is quite a difficult line to maintain when Mueller continues to get indictments, pleas and some fairly hefty sentences.

A good 20-odd% of the electorate should prove capable of doing so, if Watergate is any guide.

Stereotomy said:

Quincel said:

Stereotomy said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Much as I'd like to see Trump in court and then doing prison time it isn't going to undo what has happened over the last couple of years.

So now instead of truly wanting to fight, they just want teacher to come back into the classroom, set things straight, tell them that actually it's all okay and Trump never really won, and everything can go back to normal.

You don't win elections by refighting the last battle. And while Trump may or may not be followed by other like him, I don't think it's obvious that he will unless his opponents understand his coalition. That's not how it worked for his predecessors.

It's the same misunderstanding that lead Obama to come up with a compromise position for healthcare then keep compromising it further and further while the GOP just banked his concessions then continued screaming about socialism. It's because liberals in the US don't truly see politics as an existential struggle, where you have to fight tooth and nail to survive, whereas conservatives do.

I think that was true - but Trump, and perhaps more importantly, the Republican manoeuvring around him that has shown them to be utterly unscrupulous in pursuing their agenda (something, which to be fair, goes back to the Obama and Bush years - see gerrymandering), has snapped something.

For example, the Supreme Court was always a big issue for conservatives - to the point that that they support a man as vile and dangerous as Trump as long as he promises to put right-wingers on the court. Liberals never used to get that - see the lack of enthusiasm for Clinton - when, regardless of whether you like her, her losing could potentially mean a conservative majority on the court for two generations. Apart from a few 'full communism now' idiots they really do get it now - it's risen as an important issue in polling due to Kavaunagh. Likewise, the Democrats had far stronger down ballot campaigns last November - as there was a realisation it mattered for redistricting in 2020. We've seen it with the recent shutdown, where Dems aren't budging an inch and yet are winning public opinion.

Similarly, with the exception of possibly Biden, every 2020 Dem candidate will go into the election with populist transformative policies. Providing the Dems do win in 2020, and it's obviously a big if, one of politics great ironies maybe that by pushing liberals too far with Trump and other assorted outrages (Garland, McConnell's obstructionism, repeatedly trying to gut Obamacare), conservatives may have dug their own graves by awakening them from inertia and killing the traditional desire to compromise.

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Much as I'd like to see Trump in court and then doing prison time it isn't going to undo what has happened over the last couple of years.

Aye. I fear Trump in the first of many white nationalist Presidents.

I hope you are wrong. I see Trump and Brexit as the last hurrahs in the death throws of the international hatred filled disease called nationalism

There are no last hurrahs.

This is part of the new politics that is going to be with us, now, for some time. As will the ideologically internationalist on the other side.

Do you feel you're part of a global movement to defeat globalism?

No.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I have a question ion the US federal shutdown - do those employees who are not being paid eventually get all of their back-pay, and if so is that the case even if they are not classed as 'essential workers' and are therefore not currently working?

Not sure, I think not. Americans have a very different view of workers rights even in their public sector. I once had an American ask me what "redundancy" meant. They genuinely don't have it as a concept.

It’s an “at will” arrangement on both sides (hence no notice or gardening leave)

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

Xenon said:

This whole Mueller investigation seems to just be a politically motivated way of getting rid of Trump.

The Russians favoured Trump and Sanders over Hilary and had a small social media presence pushing their preferred candidates. So what exactly?

I think that that is quite a difficult line to maintain when Mueller continues to get indictments, pleas and some fairly hefty sentences.

A good 20-odd% of the electorate should prove capable of doing so, if Watergate is any guide.

I'm not entirely unsympathetic. I remember Ken Starr's fairly ridiculous pursuit of the Clintons when the boot was on the other foot. Politically motivated justice is no justice at all. But here actual crimes and misdemeanors are being established and the dominoes are falling, one after the other.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheJezziah said:

kinabalu said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Much as I'd like to see Trump in court and then doing prison time it isn't going to undo what has happened over the last couple of years.

To drain the swamp we need him running for a 2nd term and knocked out of the park on votes and electoral college.

After that, yes, serious prison time and confiscation of assets.

Horrible creature.

This is my thinking.

Best to see him defeated in a fair election rather than taken off to prison or taken out of the running in some way to give his crazy fans a n excuse to feel hard done by.

They would still cry foul but at least they would look like bad losers.

Then justice.

Robert Redford agrees with you...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/our-democracy-is-in-crisis-we-must-focus-on-2020--not-impeachment/2019/01/24/b51f1268-1ff6-11e9-9145-3f74070bbdb9_story.html

...now what movie of some relevance to the current situation was he in?

Butch Cassidy and The Sundance Kid?

The Sting...

Incidentally, Manafort is in court again this afternoon.
Could be interesting.

SandyRentool said:

Are there any associates of Trump who haven't had their collars felt?

He appears to have got in with a pretty bad crowd.

Particularly surprising seeing as he seems such a decent minded man. Oh, and he has a very high IQ, according to him

These are awful ratings for Trump...
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/25/trump-voters-report-card-1124761

...20% approval for 'draining the swamp'.

Quincel said:

Journalists being embedded with arresting police officers is really weird. It's not just an American thing, we do it too. It's just really weird.

It's not just weird, it's wrong - it imperils fair trial. The media should have as little as possible to do with cases before they come to trial, not blazoning their names and faces across our consciousness as they are dragged off.

A chart-and-a-half, this - at PPP exchange rates Venezuelans were apparently richer than Americans in the late 1950s:
https://humanprogress.org/dwline?p=201&c0=107&c1=2&yf=1950&yl=2017&high=1&reg=3&reg1=0

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1088764676266172416

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

So if I sent a "well done" text to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer for his revival of United's disastrous season I would be "looped in" to Man U?

Colour me unconvinced.

No. The analogy would be that you are a 'consultant' for Man Utd and you receive a text message from a close associate of the Glazers saying "well done" immediately after wikileaks has released a bunch of dirt on Chelsea.

Is this persuasive evidence that Man Utd were looped in to an attempt to discredit Chelsea?

On the face of it, yes.

Not sure it is. Welcoming something is not the same as causing it. But there may be more to it.

If the Glazers had spent the previous couple of weeks publicly calling for Wikileaks to release the dirt...

Nigel_Foremain said:

Casino_Royale said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Much as I'd like to see Trump in court and then doing prison time it isn't going to undo what has happened over the last couple of years.

Aye. I fear Trump in the first of many white nationalist Presidents.

I hope you are wrong. I see Trump and Brexit as the last hurrahs in the death throws of the international hatred filled disease called nationalism

There are no last hurrahs.

This is part of the new politics that is going to be with us, now, for some time. As will the ideologically internationalist on the other side.

No, nationalism is fundamentally intellectually bankrupt, and when people begin to feel its effects in the aftermath of Trump and his trade wars and the damage caused by Brexit, it will be consigned back to the basket case that it belongs in, for at least another 50 years when it will remerge again when people have forgotten the hatred and damage it causes. We will have to live with its stupidity for another 10 years. Hopefully it does not allow its equally damaging cousin socialism to creep in as a phony antidote.

People want to believe in something other than making money.

So, socialism, religious fundamentalism, and nationalism are very much with us for the foreseeable future.

Xenon said:

This whole Mueller investigation seems to just be a politically motivated way of getting rid of Trump.

WITCH HUNT!

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

So if I sent a "well done" text to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer for his revival of United's disastrous season I would be "looped in" to Man U?

Colour me unconvinced.

No. The analogy would be that you are a 'consultant' for Man Utd and you receive a text message from a close associate of the Glazers saying "well done" immediately after wikileaks has released a bunch of dirt on Chelsea.

Is this persuasive evidence that Man Utd were looped in to an attempt to discredit Chelsea?

On the face of it, yes.

Not sure it is. Welcoming something is not the same as causing it. But there may be more to it.

If the Glazers had spent the previous couple of weeks publicly calling for Wikileaks to release the dirt...

Nope, still not a causal connection (and what could people possibly say about Chelsea that could possibly make people think worse of them anyway?)

Tissue_Price said:

A chart-and-a-half, this - at PPP exchange rates Venezuelans were apparently richer than Americans in the late 1950s:
https://humanprogress.org/dwline?p=201&c0=107&c1=2&yf=1950&yl=2017&high=1&reg=3&reg1=0

And richer than us till 1971
Check out the UAE in 1974 !

Xenon said:

DavidL said:

Xenon said:

This whole Mueller investigation seems to just be a politically motivated way of getting rid of Trump.

The Russians favoured Trump and Sanders over Hilary and had a small social media presence pushing their preferred candidates. So what exactly?

I think that that is quite a difficult line to maintain when Mueller continues to get indictments, pleas and some fairly hefty sentences.

Just a load of trumped up charges, mostly about lying during the investigation or completely unrelated matters. Which is what you expect if you look at any election spending too closely (I can't imagine what you would find if you investigated say the Clintons this thoroughly).

Someone please explain what is wrong with working with the Russians during the election?

It's illegal to accept foreign finance contributions, for a start.

There's then the allegation that foreign policy favours were on offer in exchange (cf Flynn, for example).

The fact that Trump, and numerous administration and campaign officials have lied about his contacts with the Russians does not inspire confidence in their often contradictory defences.


Witness tampering carries some pretty stiff penalties.

And Manafort is going down for a very long time for tax evasion.

Trump is (more than likely) not going to be impeached. He could quite conceivably face the music after 2020, though.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anyone keeping a track of how many witches have pleaded guilty to witchcraft in this witch hunt?

"Trump turned me into a newt...."

Nigelb said:

If the Glazers had spent the previous couple of weeks publicly calling for Wikileaks to release the dirt...

I forget to mention that bit.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1088797271179886592

My, even David has run out of patience...

"The foreign secretary has followed the US in declaring Venezuela’s opposition leader the country’s legitimate ruler and condemned Jeremy Corbyn for his support of the socialist government.

Jeremy Hunt said that Juan Guaidó, who is leading protests against President Maduro, was “the right person to take Venezuela forward”. It followed a similar move by the US on Wednesday."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/hunt-takes-swipe-at-corbyn-for-backing-maduro-as-president-of-venezuela-p3lj56dsz

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1088764676266172416

Illegal substances? I thought that was the main man at the Co-op Bank?

I might respectfully put it to the gentleman concerned that Centrica are probably more unpopular than the EU, amongst both Leavers and Remainers.

Where do they find these people? And why haven’t they learnt that getting the most Anywhere of Anywhere big businesses - with very poor public reputations - to do this is a bad idea?