Sean_F said:

eek said:

David_Evershed said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.

I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

* disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.

Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.

Exhibit A - the Tories from 1990 to 2017 in Scotland and the Poll Tax...
Exhibit B - the Tories in any mining area...
Exhibit C - the Lib Dems and student fees

I'd say that the Tories in mining areas are a counter-example.

Tories won the Ashfield by-election in 1977 when it was heavily a mining area. With a 23% swing.....

Clear that May puts keeping most of her party together ahead of actually resolving the crisis for the country.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pro_Rata said:

Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years

Which still begs the question - and after that what?

It is quite plausible that the next leader of the Tories will be a Canada / technoborder type. In which case we could still end up after the backstop expires with a situation where the EU is being asked to breach WTO MFN rules to maintain an open border, when the technoborder is found to not work properly in practice.

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/nfl_memes/status/1087204155486363649?s=21

https://twitter.com/AndrewKirell/status/1087191732318539776

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1087306597125275648

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fenman said:

kjohnw said:

David_Evershed said:

kjohnw said:

Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2 million distribution

Distribution does not equal readership.

To be fair it does say “read by 2 million customers “

The Brexit Big three businessmen were the owners of Wetherspoons, JCB and Pattiserie Valerie. One down, two to go.

Except none are “down”. One appears to have suffered financial fraud, but the owner has put money in the business to keep it going.

A shareholder has loaned the business money, which, depending upon where he ranks as a creditor, is not necessarily a massive vote of confidence.

And had, moreover, half his loan repaid out of the subsequent share placing which I suspect some investors are regretting.

SouthamObserver said:

It’s been clear to me for a while that May puts herself and her party before her country. Now others are realising it.
https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/1087328771286409216?s=21

I was wondered when George Osborne would get over his starry-eyed adoration of Theresa...

Roger said:

David_Evershed said:

felix said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Gardenwalker said:

Alanbrooke said:

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I’d also point out my job was effectively relocated to Germany thanks to Brexit.

Something Leavers said wouldn’t happen either.

what your new employer is sending you to Germany as well ?

No.

But I liked my old job but others don’t have the luxury I have.

You mean like factory workers who have had their jobs sent out to Europe for years now and whose upside was a fairly weak redundancy package ?

Thats the world we have made Mr Eagles and anyone protesting was told to shut up.

The problem with that argument is that it doesn't solve anything - it's like a child having a temper tantrum because he can't have ice cream while someone else is eating one...

Alanbrooke seems to support Brexit so that everyone can suffer.

Now youre just off one handed posting again.

I get monumentally bored posting I voted Brexit and wanted a soft Brexit and would happily vote for Mrs Ms deal. In your madcap world where everyone is Nigel Farages evil twin there is no room for understanding others positions. But there you go.

Your stock post is a bitch about how the elite have let manufacturing down these past twenty years.

Therefore, Brexit is worth voting for so that the “elite” get a taste of their own medicine.

It’s simple nihilism.

Yes, saying he is against the establishment, but admires a bunch of old Etonians doesn't exactly make him look the brightest ticket in the book. Then again, he is a supporter of Brexit

Obviously the right to vote should be limited to those only with high IQ. In your world .

Limiting votes to those with a high IQ guarantees Remaining in the EU.

Majority of graduates and professionals voted remain.

But Leavers would have Fergie and most of the Royal Family

Where's that picture of the Queen with a blue starry hat?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pro_Rata said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pro_Rata said:

Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years

Which still begs the question - and after that what?

It is quite plausible that the next leader of the Tories will be a Canada / technoborder type. In which case we could still end up after the backstop expires with a situation where the EU is being asked to breach WTO MFN rules to maintain an open border, when the technoborder is found to not work properly in practice.

As Sky have just reported the significance in Poland's position today is that it is the first incidence of a crack in the EU position and he also said Barnier is open to addressing the political declaration with a generous offer

I'm not doubting the Polish reports, just scratching my head as to how it leaves intact the EUs cover against the insured risk that the backstop provided. Oh well, their problem!

Chris said:

SouthamObserver said:

It’s been clear to me for a while that May puts herself and her party before her country. Now others are realising it.
https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/1087328771286409216?s=21

I was wondered when George Osborne would get over his starry-eyed adoration of Theresa...

I always had him down as a supporter.

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

Charles said:

I saw in the last thread lots of people planning pogroms and asset seizures (mostly the usual suspects, but @Cyclefree you should be ashamed of yourself).

Guys: it says far more about you than anything else. It’s not a pleasant sight.

And it’s worth making sure you “win” before you plan the victory parade

I have not planned any asset seizures or pogroms.

So you should not make unjustified accusations.

No-one is going to “win”. But I am worried that those who are pushing us towards a No Deal exit are blithely oblivious of the possible consequences, especially for others less able than them to bear them. I need medecine as do members of my family and the consequences of not having it are potentially serious. So when I feel angry about the frivolous disregard for the possible consequences by some Brexiteers I think that we might have better decision-making if those proposing courses of action actually felt the consequences of their decisions.

No, but you wanted MPs who backed leave to be deprived of medicines first in the event of shortages. I repeat: you should be ashamed of yourself.

You made an unjustified accusation and you clearly misread my comment. I said that when I feel spiteful I feel this. I do not think that spitefulness should be the basis for policy. Nor do I often feel spiteful. I did last night, not least because of worries my brother, who depends on rare medicines every day of his life, expressed about what would happen if there were shortages. Given his condition, shortages could kill him. Try and empathise with those with such worries and their families instead of, and excuse my frankness, giving prissy morality lectures and making unjustified accusations.

I do feel however that many of the top Brexiteers lied about the sort of Brexit they wanted and expected at the time of the referendum, are lying now and often give every impression of being blithely and frivolously unconcerned with the consequences of the policies they advocate and are bringing into effect by their actions. They seem to have all the unconcern of those who think that they will not suffer the consequences.

It is they who should be ashamed of themselves, of what they are doing, the worry they are creating and the damage they risk doing to the country we all live in.

Pro_Rata said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pro_Rata said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pro_Rata said:

Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years

Which still begs the question - and after that what?

It is quite plausible that the next leader of the Tories will be a Canada / technoborder type. In which case we could still end up after the backstop expires with a situation where the EU is being asked to breach WTO MFN rules to maintain an open border, when the technoborder is found to not work properly in practice.

As Sky have just reported the significance in Poland's position today is that it is the first incidence of a crack in the EU position and he also said Barnier is open to addressing the political declaration with a generous offer

I'm not doubting the Polish reports, just scratching my head as to how it leaves intact the EUs cover against the insured risk that the backstop provided. Oh well, their problem!

It wasn't just that Poland has broken ranks, Mark Stone of Sky said that Barnier is looking at opening the political declaration and making a generous offer

He then commented it is 'squeaky bum time.'

Maybe the EU wached Question Time and the huge cheer when no deal was suggested

AmpfieldAndy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pro_Rata said:

Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years

That’s not a flyer really. It means potentially 7 years of gridlock wrangling over a future relationship that may or may not be worth having; 7 years of being a rule taker over which we have no say. We’ve all got better things to do and paralysis on domestic policy for up to 7 years isn’t an option.

Also, in his interview the Polish foreign minister has a go at Ireland ("the EU has become hostage to Ireland"), which is not well-calculated to make the Irish respond favourably. Poland is an outrider in the EU and I'll be surprised if the idea gets anywhere.

Philip_Thompson said:

rkrkrk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rkrkrk said:

Gardenwalker said:

Nemtynakht said:

SandyRentool said:

AndyJS said:

"Theresa May blames Corbyn as cross-party Brexit talks fail"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/theresa-may-blames-jeremy-corbyn-as-cross-party-talks-fail-sssgzj3j3

It is pathetic isn't it. May claims to be reaching out to other parties. They all tell her that she needs to rule out No Deal. She refuses, and says it is everyone else's fault that the cross-party approach has failed.

So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up to the ERG and the bowler hats.

She is truly pathetic. Truly awful. Truly clueless. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime. Whether it is Parliament, the Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.

So Corbyn asks for something that will tear apart the Tory Party and therefore probably the Government with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.

May seems to have given up on Parliament after about two days.

But she is happy to entertain the wildest unicorn fantasies of her own backbench.

She may have given up all together. She knows she can't do a deal, and is now making sure no one else can.

Alternatively her final roll of the dice is to do what I've said all along - find a deal that her party and the DUP can back (Deal minus backstop) and go back to the EU with it. If they back it great we have a deal. If they don't so be it but we've tried every realistic avenue first.

I think we had this discussion before, but Deal minus backstop isn't going to get the votes from her party. The backstop is only one issue, Tory MPs have lots of other objections.

I think it will. JRM, Boris and many others have said they could back the deal without the backstop. There would only be diehard Remainers left blocking the deal in an attempt to get s referendum (but thus risking no deal) if the leavers fall into line to get Brexit over the line.

Can you name a single Leaver who has said they would oppose the deal even if the backstop were removed?

Guto certainly. And according to him, that's a majority position among those that oppose the deal.
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/01/guto-bebb-conservative-mps-opposition-to-this-deal-is-about-far-more-than-just-the-backstop.html

https://twitter.com/timescorbyn/status/1087294098908872704?s=21

This is how I imagine he got when people suggested he needed to negotiate with the tories over brexit...

Stark_Dawning said:

kjohnw said:

Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2milion distribution

Incredible. Not even in my wildest dreams did I think that Leavers were capable of allowing, yet alone actively pursuing, No Deal. Indeed, had a Remainer suggested this during the referendum campaign I would have rebuked him for disseminating fantastic and terrible lies. However, this was evidently Leave's plan all along. They did well to keep it so secret. Had a single Leaver uttered a word of it before the vote it would have killed the case for Brexit stone dead.

Indeed as an article in the NS (George Eaton) points out in respect of No Deal. "This was not the outcome predicted by Tory Brexiteers. In July 2017, Boris Johnson declared: “There is no plan for no deal because we are going to get a great deal.”

Leaving aside the fact that Johnson seems to make it up as he goes along and then goes all Trumpton and declares it "fake news" if anyone points out his previous utterances, I distinctly recall No Deal being ridiculed as "Project Fear" by leavers throughout the campaign.

I don't believe that the ultras would have ever accepted any deal. The diverse coalition put together to get them over the line in the referendum was cannon fodder. Once the vote was out of the way they were always going to try to manoeuvre the country into the extreme form of Brexit that they wanted all along but were too scared to admit out loud before the vote.

Any legal tactic to thwart them is fully justified.

Harris: "let's claim the future". Opening campaign vid:

https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1087327713277460481

AlastairMeeks said:

NB all those who imagine Italy might be the next domino to fall out of the EU:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1087343945946939392

They want to change the EU from within. They will not leave but cause chaos if they can

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NickPalmer said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pro_Rata said:

Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years

That’s not a flyer really. It means potentially 7 years of gridlock wrangling over a future relationship that may or may not be worth having; 7 years of being a rule taker over which we have no say. We’ve all got better things to do and paralysis on domestic policy for up to 7 years isn’t an option.

Also, in his interview the Polish foreign minister has a go at Ireland ("the EU has become hostage to Ireland"), which is not well-calculated to make the Irish respond favourably. Poland is an outrider in the EU and I'll be surprised if the idea gets anywhere.

Interesting to see if Italy endorse Poland and then the other visegrad countries come on board

This is a very early sign of a split in the EU and seems to add to the anti EU stance coming from Poland and Italy

So you are saying that the Deal may pass neither the Westminster parliament, nor the European one?

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NickPalmer said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pro_Rata said:

Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years

That’s not a flyer really. It means potentially 7 years of gridlock wrangling over a future relationship that may or may not be worth having; 7 years of being a rule taker over which we have no say. We’ve all got better things to do and paralysis on domestic policy for up to 7 years isn’t an option.

Also, in his interview the Polish foreign minister has a go at Ireland ("the EU has become hostage to Ireland"), which is not well-calculated to make the Irish respond favourably. Poland is an outrider in the EU and I'll be surprised if the idea gets anywhere.

Interesting to see if Italy endorse Poland and then the other visegrad countries come on board

This is a very early sign of a split in the EU and seems to add to the anti EU stance coming from Poland and Italy

So you are saying that the Deal may pass neither the Westminster parliament, nor the European one?

No - just passing on the information of the first crack in EU unity

NickPalmer said:

TGOHF said:

Corbyn has a much more moderate position than Soubry - he wants to respect the result of the referendum.

TGOHF praising Corbyn - the End of Days approacheth...

They've arrived.

See this comment from me last night


"NickPalmer said:
kle4 said:
It really is the last straw from May. I'm honestly trying to think of if there are any MPs at this point who would be worse to have in this situation and I don't think I'm getting beyond a handful. Chris Williamson? Chris Chope? It's a select group.

lol!

MY comment:-

I now think of May as actively dangerous for the country, so useless is she.

It is getting close to the point where even I, no Corbyn fan, to put it mildly, will start thinking, fuck it, how much worse than the old trout can he be? That is how bad she is. She’s turned @kle4 into a Remainer and me, almost, into a Corbynite.

It’s a funny old world.

Goodnight.

PS Don’t get your hopes up, @NickPalmer. I’m sure normal service will be resumed tomorrow."

SquareRoot said:

kinabalu said:

SquareRoot said:

Someone needs to tell Diane Abbott that if she talks crap, she is going to be interrupted..
its not because she is black. its because she talks nonsense and doesn't know her brief nor understand numbers.

She was merely making the point that Labour and the Conservatives are broadly neck and neck in the polls. Hardly nonsense.

Abbott has made herself . by her own stupidity into someone people don't want to listen to.

She talks bullocks, and even if for one instant she doesn't, people assume that she is.. its of her own making, oh, and she's a hypocrite too, especially over state education.

The latter is far worse imho, than whether she sometimes screws up the briefing notes and forgets numbers.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Harris really needs a boost from this. She needs to elevate herself into the top four behind Biden, Sanders and Warren, really.

Only Warren running so far though of that list.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

NB all those who imagine Italy might be the next domino to fall out of the EU:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1087343945946939392

They want to change the EU from within. They will not leave but cause chaos if they can

This is before the bond implosion that could happen.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rkrkrk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rkrkrk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rkrkrk said:

Gardenwalker said:

Nemtynakht said:

SandyRentool said:

AndyJS said:

"Theresa May blames Corbyn as cross-party Brexit talks fail"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/theresa-may-blames-jeremy-corbyn-as-cross-party-talks-fail-sssgzj3j3

It is pathetic isn'

So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.

So with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.

May seems to have given up on Parliament after about two days.

But she is happy to entertain the wildest unicorn fantasies of her own backbench.

She may have given up all together. She knows she can't do a deal, and is now making sure no one else can.

Alternatively her final roll of the dice is to do what I've said all along - find a deal that her party and the DUP can back (Deal minus backstop) and go back to the EU with it. If they back it great we have a deal. If they don't so be it but we've tried every realistic avenue first.

I think we had this discussion before, but Deal minus backstop isn't going to get the votes from her party. The backstop is only one issue, Tory MPs have lots of other objections.

I think it will. JRM, Boris and many others have said they could back the deal without the backstop. There would only be diehard Remainers left blocking the deal in an attempt to get s referendum (but thus risking no deal) if the leavers fall into line to get Brexit over the line.

Can you name a single Leaver who has said they would oppose the deal even if the backstop were removed?

Guto certainly. And according to him, that's a majority position among those that oppose the deal.
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/01/guto-bebb-conservative-mps-opposition-to-this-deal-is-about-far-more-than-just-the-backstop.html

He is my mp, a remainer and a Dominic Grieve supporter. He may be de-selected. He is not popular

Sorry I realise PT said Leaver, should have read more closely.

Steve Baker also said its not just the backstop in November.
Also, I think some Scottish Tories said they would definitely vote against because of fishing issues.
https://www.johnlamont.org/news/how-i-will-vote-brexit-deal

https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1087347242602844161

rottenborough said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Harris really needs a boost from this. She needs to elevate herself into the top four behind Biden, Sanders and Warren, really.

Only Warren running so far though of that list.

Part of why she can afford to be fourth. As someone (sorry!) pointed out, we're rapidly approaching the part of the cycle where the frontrunner(s) become evident.

This is v good. An interesting take on a No Deal crash out, hour-by-hour. Be interested to hear what material problems the leavers have with it. It's not Armageddon, but it does have the ring of truth/plausibility, at least to me.
https://members.tortoisemedia.com/2019/01/21/no-deal-tick-tock/content.html?sig=224KQD31D8z4AgM9cIZLJi-pURUO1dQ2X21e8N3Zhqw

SquareRoot said:

kinabalu said:

SquareRoot said:

Someone needs to tell Diane Abbott that if she talks crap, she is going to be interrupted..
its not because she is black. its because she talks nonsense and doesn't know her brief nor understand numbers.

She was merely making the point that Labour and the Conservatives are broadly neck and neck in the polls. Hardly nonsense.

Abbott has made herself . by her own stupidity into someone people don't want to listen to.

She talks bullocks, and even if for one instant she doesn't, people assume that she is.. its of her own making, oh, and she's a hypocrite too, especially over state education.

She did say before the last election that the more people saw of Corbyn the more they would like him. And she was right on that.

She has many faults. But she is sometimes right. And she gave one of the best Parliamentary speeches I've ever heard when she was opposing Blair's appallingly authoritarian proposals to lock people up without trial for 42 days.

So I have some time for her, some of the time anyway.

TGOHF said:

Uk 3rd biggest export market for Germany.

Ireland not only exports to the Uk but uses us as a low cost, quick land bridge to the EU.

They would be daft to be so intransigent that they guide the Uk down a no deal path.

Of course they would be. But we're in it far deeper than they are, on an individual nation basis.

Signed by? Go on, guess.
https://edm.parliament.uk/early-day-motion/41041/european-sporting-and-cultural-relations-with-israel

Anorak said:

Signed by? Go on, guess.
https://edm.parliament.uk/early-day-motion/41041/european-sporting-and-cultural-relations-with-israel

Is it by any chance that bloke who will unconditionally sit down with foreign terrorists but not with the elected government of his own country?

SandyRentool said:

Sean_F said:

SandyRentool said:

MarqueeMark said:

Sean_F said:

eek said:

David_Evershed said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.

I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

* disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.

Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.

Exhibit A - the Tories from 1990 to 2017 in Scotland and the Poll Tax...
Exhibit B - the Tories in any mining area...
Exhibit C - the Lib Dems and student fees

I'd say that the Tories in mining areas are a counter-example.

Tories won the Ashfield by-election in 1977 when it was heavily a mining area. With a 23% swing.....

Nottinghamshire. Quite.

There is a string of ex-mining constituencies in the Midlands and Yorkshire which have shifted to the Conservatives since the mid 80's.

The pit heads have been demolished and replaced with Executive housing.

Some may regard that as progress.

On most cases the pit heads have been replaced with other businesses which are contributing to our near full employment.

Anorak said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anorak said:

Signed by? Go on, guess.
https://edm.parliament.uk/early-day-motion/41041/european-sporting-and-cultural-relations-with-israel

Is it by any chance that bloke who will unconditionally sit down with foreign terrorists but not with the elected government of his own country?

We have a winner. Do you want the teddy holding the Palestinian flag, or the T-Shirt with the picture of Hugo Chavez?

Have you run out of the t-shirts with the picture of the bloke shouting that may should shoot herself with John McDonnell appauding?

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

NB all those who imagine Italy might be the next domino to fall out of the EU:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1087343945946939392

yes

as pointed out on the Italy thread 2 weeks ago

The risk seems to be not that Italy would leave but that they will stay in and with Poland and Hungary make such a mess that the EU would wish they had left.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087352370332348416

williamglenn said:

Anorak said:

Signed by? Go on, guess.
https://edm.parliament.uk/early-day-motion/41041/european-sporting-and-cultural-relations-with-israel

Presumably a protest against Dana International in the Eurovision Song Contest.

They're going to be livid when they hear that Australia are in it now.

https://twitter.com/bbcnewcastle/status/1087234078175383552?s=21

Sean_F said:

SandyRentool said:

MarqueeMark said:

Sean_F said:

eek said:

David_Evershed said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.

I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

* disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.

Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.

Exhibit A - the Tories from 1990 to 2017 in Scotland and the Poll Tax...
Exhibit B - the Tories in any mining area...
Exhibit C - the Lib Dems and student fees

I'd say that the Tories in mining areas are a counter-example.

Tories won the Ashfield by-election in 1977 when it was heavily a mining area. With a 23% swing.....

Nottinghamshire. Quite.

There is a string of ex-mining constituencies in the Midlands and Yorkshire which have shifted to the Conservatives since the mid 80's.

I get the impression most of those ex-mining seats are still pretty left-wing on economic issues like high taxes on the wealthy, etc. It's just that social/nationalistic issues are more important for a lot of voters in those areas at the moment.

TOPPING said:

TGOHF said:

Uk 3rd biggest export market for Germany.

Ireland not only exports to the Uk but uses us as a low cost, quick land bridge to the EU.

They would be daft to be so intransigent that they guide the Uk down a no deal path.

Of course they would be. But we're in it far deeper than they are, on an individual nation basis.

I thought the concept of the EU was that everyone was supposed to be a winner? Their negotiating strategy throws that (and Ireland) out the window......

eek said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eek said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TGOHF said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mike Ashley in talks to buy music chain HMV

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-46940238

Why would anybody want to buy a music / dvd / computer game store in this day and age when everything is going digital.

Is Ashley not doing as per Frasers - hang on to the prime locations and leases and ditch the rest of the company.

I guess that makes more sense. And then what, sublease the prime locations, as I presume hmv don’t actually own much real estate locations themselves?

I think he wants to merge the HMV stores with Game. It's probably worth looking at Game's Belong gaming arenas as to what he would try to do with the space..

Not sure I like the sound of that either. Next gen consoles are going to be all digital downloads, and yes game arenas are having a bit of boom (mainly due to bloody fortnite) but i just don’t see esports here going like it is in Asia

But then what do I know...nothing when it comes to retail.

I don't either - I think it's 2 months since I was last in the Town Centre to buy anything - it was more me trying to work out why you would want town centre space and this was about the best idea I could come up with..

I think that the gaming arenas could be successful. We are spending less in shops on th8ngs and more on experiences like escape rooms

New Thread

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/bbcnewcastle/status/1087234078175383552?s=21

More proof that Brexit is a death cult.
All this while the po-faced maiden aunts on PB cry crocodile tears about so-called offensive Remainers.

I do appreciate that unleashing the whirlwind weighs heavy on consciences. It should do, anyway.