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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why HealthSec Hancock should be factored in as a potential TMa

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  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    felix said:

    eek said:

    I’d also point out my job was effectively relocated to Germany thanks to Brexit.

    Something Leavers said wouldn’t happen either.

    what your new employer is sending you to Germany as well ?
    No.

    But I liked my old job but others don’t have the luxury I have.
    You mean like factory workers who have had their jobs sent out to Europe for years now and whose upside was a fairly weak redundancy package ?

    Thats the world we have made Mr Eagles and anyone protesting was told to shut up.
    The problem with that argument is that it doesn't solve anything - it's like a child having a temper tantrum because he can't have ice cream while someone else is eating one...
    Alanbrooke seems to support Brexit so that everyone can suffer.
    Now youre just off one handed posting again.

    I get monumentally bored posting I voted Brexit and wanted a soft Brexit and would happily vote for Mrs Ms deal. In your madcap world where everyone is Nigel Farages evil twin there is no room for understanding others positions. But there you go.
    Your stock post is a bitch about how the elite have let manufacturing down these past twenty years.

    Therefore, Brexit is worth voting for so that the “elite” get a taste of their own medicine.

    It’s simple nihilism.
    Yes, saying he is against the establishment, but admires a bunch of old Etonians doesn't exactly make him look the brightest ticket in the book. Then again, he is a supporter of Brexit
    Obviously the right to vote should be limited to those only with high IQ. In your world .

    Limiting votes to those with a high IQ guarantees Remaining in the EU.

    Majority of graduates and professionals voted remain.
    But Leavers would have Fergie and most of the Royal Family
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    * disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.
    Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

    Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.

    Exhibit A - the Tories from 1990 to 2017 in Scotland and the Poll Tax...
    Exhibit B - the Tories in any mining area...
    Exhibit C - the Lib Dems and student fees
    I'd say that the Tories in mining areas are a counter-example.
    Tories won the Ashfield by-election in 1977 when it was heavily a mining area. With a 23% swing.....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    * disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.
    Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

    Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.

    Exhibit A - the Tories from 1990 to 2017 in Scotland and the Poll Tax...
    Exhibit B - the Tories in any mining area...
    Exhibit C - the Lib Dems and student fees
    I'd say that the Tories in mining areas are a counter-example.
    Tories won the Ashfield by-election in 1977 when it was heavily a mining area. With a 23% swing.....
    Nottinghamshire. Quite.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mike Ashley in talks to buy music chain HMV

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-46940238

    Why would anybody want to buy a music / dvd / computer game store in this day and age when everything is going digital.

    Is Ashley not doing as per Frasers - hang on to the prime locations and leases and ditch the rest of the company.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Mike Ashley in talks to buy music chain HMV

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-46940238

    Why would anybody want to buy a music / dvd / computer game store in this day and age when everything is going digital.

    Perhaps a free Sports Direct tracksuit with every CD sold?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Clear that May puts keeping most of her party together ahead of actually resolving the crisis for the country.
  • TGOHF said:

    Mike Ashley in talks to buy music chain HMV

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-46940238

    Why would anybody want to buy a music / dvd / computer game store in this day and age when everything is going digital.

    Is Ashley not doing as per Frasers - hang on to the prime locations and leases and ditch the rest of the company.
    I guess that makes more sense. And then what, sublease the prime locations, as I presume hmv don’t actually own much real estate locations themselves?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Cicero said:

    Hancock? Well why not, the rest of the Tories are as about useless and forgetable as he is.

    .

    Very amusing. However there is one clown with a low IQ and a dodgy backstory that is now only fooling about 20% of the population. He is the alternative, and he makes all but the first and last one you listed look competent and attractive.
    You keep saying this but someone with 2 A levels from the 1960s would have been well above average in IQ terms. To claim otherwise is to imply that 80% of the population was then 'thick'.
    That implies the 80% of the country couldn't have achieved two E's having had a very privileged education rather than just that they didn't.

    Just because some left education at 16 then especially if they went to a school and came from a family that expected that doesn't mean they couldn't have done otherwise.
    You are making a valid point which indeed has often occurred to me. Nevertheless , as someone who took A Levels at a Grammar School in the early 1970s I do recall that no more than 50% of the original intake actually entered the Sixth form. Entry required 5 O levels, and most pupils not in the A stream tended to find that challenging or had a clear preference for looking for a job. Quite a few of the A streamers ended up failing one or more of their A levels - nationally 30% of A level pupils failed to achieve the minimum E pass grade. Corbyn was a Sixth former in the mid-1960s -say 1965 - 67 - more than half decade before my time when the number studying A levels was even smaller than in my own experience. I would reject the idea that John Major was 'thick' because he left school in circa 1959 with very few O levels and,therefore, unable to proceed to the Sixth Form. Corbyn did a fair bit better than that - he was not a high flyer but he was not 'thick'.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    edited January 2019

    I do not want to assume anything but I think you reside in the UK. If so why are you so concerned about Trump?
    Personally I treat him as a spitting image caricature and have a laugh.

    I can laugh at him too, and I often do. He's great entertainment. Has turned the presidency of the US into the ultimate reality TV show, which is no surprise when you consider his background. But I am sad and mad about his election too. Why? Because of the harm he is doing, inside and outside America. Not so much his policies. Tax cuts? Conservative judges? Border control? Trade barriers? Pro guns? Not my bag, not at all, but OK, it's their country.

    It's about his character and personality. The American president is a massive role model, globally, and here we have somebody in that exalted position who represents all the worst aspects of human nature. Shallow, ignorant, small-minded, mendacious, narcissistic, bullying, misogynist, bigoted, pompous, arrogant, mean-spirited, quite astonishingly immature, I could go on. Rather than work on these negative characteristics, he wallows in them, and this encourages others to do likewise. The effect is insidious and corrosive and very malign. He is bad for the planet.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,289
    edited January 2019

    Pro_Rata said:

    Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

    1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
    2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
    3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

    Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years
    Which still begs the question - and after that what?

    It is quite plausible that the next leader of the Tories will be a Canada / technoborder type. In which case we could still end up after the backstop expires with a situation where the EU is being asked to breach WTO MFN rules to maintain an open border, when the technoborder is found to not work properly in practice.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    One does wonder how Vince Cable fills his days.

    Is he sitting at home in the New Forest watching repeats of Countdown?
    One day he'll work out the answer to the numbers game....
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Pro_Rata said:

    Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

    1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
    2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
    3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

    Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years
    That’s not a flyer really. It means potentially 7 years of gridlock wrangling over a future relationship that may or may not be worth having; 7 years of being a rule taker over which we have no say. We’ve all got better things to do and paralysis on domestic policy for up to 7 years isn’t an option.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Dura_Ace said:

    I would just like to burnish my inclusive and humanitarian credentials by pointing out that I just sold a car to someone I strongly suspect was a leaver. He even got a handshake and a curt nod.

    Did you leave the Bollocks2Brexit bumper sticker on?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Mike Ashley in talks to buy music chain HMV

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-46940238

    Why would anybody want to buy a music / dvd / computer game store in this day and age when everything is going digital.

    Is Ashley not doing as per Frasers - hang on to the prime locations and leases and ditch the rest of the company.
    I guess that makes more sense. And then what, sublease the prime locations, as I presume hmv don’t actually own much real estate locations themselves?
    And just let the rest burn...

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/01/20/house-fraser-dealt-blow-sales-crash-run-up-christmas/

    "Mike Ashley’s hopes of turning House of Fraser into the “Harrods of the high street” have been dealt an early blow as sales at the struggling department store crashed in the run-up to Christmas.

    Sales at the department store have tumbled by 60pc over the 12 weeks to 18 December, according to figures by Kantar Worldpanel, seen by The Telegraph."

    Daftly people thought MA wanted to save HoF - nah, he's after the real estate locations.

    Same with HMV - pick it up for a song, keep the handful of stores. The rest withers.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    TGOHF said:

    Mike Ashley in talks to buy music chain HMV

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-46940238

    Why would anybody want to buy a music / dvd / computer game store in this day and age when everything is going digital.

    Is Ashley not doing as per Frasers - hang on to the prime locations and leases and ditch the rest of the company.
    I guess that makes more sense. And then what, sublease the prime locations, as I presume hmv don’t actually own much real estate locations themselves?
    I think he wants to merge the HMV stores with Game. It's probably worth looking at Game's Belong gaming arenas as to what he would try to do with the space..
  • It’s been clear to me for a while that May puts herself and her party before her country. Now others are realising it.
    https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/1087328771286409216?s=21
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

    1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
    2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
    3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

    Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years
    Which still begs the question - and after that what?

    It is quite plausible that the next leader of the Tories will be a Canada / technoborder type. In which case we could still end up after the backstop expires with a situation where the EU is being asked to breach WTO MFN rules to maintain an open border, when the technoborder is found to not work properly in practice.
    As Sky have just reported the significance in Poland's position today is that it is the first incidence of a crack in the EU position and he also said Barnier is open to addressing the political declaration with a generous offer
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,285
    Nigelb said:

    Fenman said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2 million distribution


    Distribution does not equal readership.
    To be fair it does say “read by 2 million customers “

    The Brexit Big three businessmen were the owners of Wetherspoons, JCB and Pattiserie Valerie. One down, two to go.
    Except none are “down”. One appears to have suffered financial fraud, but the owner has put money in the business to keep it going.
    A shareholder has loaned the business money, which, depending upon where he ranks as a creditor, is not necessarily a massive vote of confidence.
    And had, moreover, half his loan repaid out of the subsequent share placing which I suspect some investors are regretting.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    * disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.
    Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

    Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.

    Exhibit A - the Tories from 1990 to 2017 in Scotland and the Poll Tax...
    Exhibit B - the Tories in any mining area...
    Exhibit C - the Lib Dems and student fees
    I'd say that the Tories in mining areas are a counter-example.
    Tories won the Ashfield by-election in 1977 when it was heavily a mining area. With a 23% swing.....
    Nottinghamshire. Quite.
    There is a string of ex-mining constituencies in the Midlands and Yorkshire which have shifted to the Conservatives since the mid 80's.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    It’s been clear to me for a while that May puts herself and her party before her country. Now others are realising it.
    https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/1087328771286409216?s=21

    I was wondered when George Osborne would get over his starry-eyed adoration of Theresa...
  • eek said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mike Ashley in talks to buy music chain HMV

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-46940238

    Why would anybody want to buy a music / dvd / computer game store in this day and age when everything is going digital.

    Is Ashley not doing as per Frasers - hang on to the prime locations and leases and ditch the rest of the company.
    I guess that makes more sense. And then what, sublease the prime locations, as I presume hmv don’t actually own much real estate locations themselves?
    I think he wants to merge the HMV stores with Game. It's probably worth looking at Game's Belong gaming arenas as to what he would try to do with the space..
    Not sure I like the sound of that either. Next gen consoles are going to be all digital downloads, and yes game arenas are having a bit of boom (mainly due to bloody fortnite) but i just don’t see esports here going like it is in Asia

    But then what do I know...nothing when it comes to retail.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Roger said:

    felix said:

    eek said:

    I’d also point out my job was effectively relocated to Germany thanks to Brexit.

    Something Leavers said wouldn’t happen either.

    what your new employer is sending you to Germany as well ?
    No.

    But I liked my old job but others don’t have the luxury I have.
    You mean like factory workers who have had their jobs sent out to Europe for years now and whose upside was a fairly weak redundancy package ?

    Thats the world we have made Mr Eagles and anyone protesting was told to shut up.
    The problem with that argument is that it doesn't solve anything - it's like a child having a temper tantrum because he can't have ice cream while someone else is eating one...
    Alanbrooke seems to support Brexit so that everyone can suffer.
    Now youre just off one handed posting again.

    I get monumentally bored posting I voted Brexit and wanted a soft Brexit and would happily vote for Mrs Ms deal. In your madcap world where everyone is Nigel Farages evil twin there is no room for understanding others positions. But there you go.
    Your stock post is a bitch about how the elite have let manufacturing down these past twenty years.

    Therefore, Brexit is worth voting for so that the “elite” get a taste of their own medicine.

    It’s simple nihilism.
    Yes, saying he is against the establishment, but admires a bunch of old Etonians doesn't exactly make him look the brightest ticket in the book. Then again, he is a supporter of Brexit
    Obviously the right to vote should be limited to those only with high IQ. In your world .

    Limiting votes to those with a high IQ guarantees Remaining in the EU.

    Majority of graduates and professionals voted remain.
    But Leavers would have Fergie and most of the Royal Family
    Where's that picture of the Queen with a blue starry hat?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,289

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

    1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
    2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
    3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

    Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years
    Which still begs the question - and after that what?

    It is quite plausible that the next leader of the Tories will be a Canada / technoborder type. In which case we could still end up after the backstop expires with a situation where the EU is being asked to breach WTO MFN rules to maintain an open border, when the technoborder is found to not work properly in practice.
    As Sky have just reported the significance in Poland's position today is that it is the first incidence of a crack in the EU position and he also said Barnier is open to addressing the political declaration with a generous offer
    I'm not doubting the Polish reports, just scratching my head as to how it leaves intact the EUs cover against the insured risk that the backstop provided. Oh well, their problem!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019
    Diane Abbott has rejected the BBC's response to claims she was poorly treated on Question Time.

    The Labour Party lodged a formal complaint with the BBC after she reported she had "never had such a horrible experience" on the show.

    Stupid woman...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Chris said:

    It’s been clear to me for a while that May puts herself and her party before her country. Now others are realising it.
    https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/1087328771286409216?s=21

    I was wondered when George Osborne would get over his starry-eyed adoration of Theresa...
    I always had him down as a supporter.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Someone needs to tell Diane Abbott that if she talks crap, she is going to be interrupted..
    its not because she is black. its because she talks nonsense and doesn't know her brief nor understand numbers.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46943667
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    I saw in the last thread lots of people planning pogroms and asset seizures (mostly the usual suspects, but @Cyclefree you should be ashamed of yourself).

    Guys: it says far more about you than anything else. It’s not a pleasant sight.

    And it’s worth making sure you “win” before you plan the victory parade

    I have not planned any asset seizures or pogroms.

    So you should not make unjustified accusations.

    No-one is going to “win”. But I am worried that those who are pushing us towards a No Deal exit are blithely oblivious of the possible consequences, especially for others less able than them to bear them. I need medecine as do members of my family and the consequences of not having it are potentially serious. So when I feel angry about the frivolous disregard for the possible consequences by some Brexiteers I think that we might have better decision-making if those proposing courses of action actually felt the consequences of their decisions.
    No, but you wanted MPs who backed leave to be deprived of medicines first in the event of shortages. I repeat: you should be ashamed of yourself.
    You made an unjustified accusation and you clearly misread my comment. I said that when I feel spiteful I feel this. I do not think that spitefulness should be the basis for policy. Nor do I often feel spiteful. I did last night, not least because of worries my brother, who depends on rare medicines every day of his life, expressed about what would happen if there were shortages. Given his condition, shortages could kill him. Try and empathise with those with such worries and their families instead of, and excuse my frankness, giving prissy morality lectures and making unjustified accusations.

    I do feel however that many of the top Brexiteers lied about the sort of Brexit they wanted and expected at the time of the referendum, are lying now and often give every impression of being blithely and frivolously unconcerned with the consequences of the policies they advocate and are bringing into effect by their actions. They seem to have all the unconcern of those who think that they will not suffer the consequences.

    It is they who should be ashamed of themselves, of what they are doing, the worry they are creating and the damage they risk doing to the country we all live in.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019

    Someone needs to tell Diane Abbott that if she talks crap, she is going to be interrupted..
    its not because she is black. its because she talks nonsense and doesn't know her brief nor understand numbers.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46943667

    You is racist and sexist innit...
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

    1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
    2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
    3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

    Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years
    Which still begs the question - and after that what?

    It is quite plausible that the next leader of the Tories will be a Canada / technoborder type. In which case we could still end up after the backstop expires with a situation where the EU is being asked to breach WTO MFN rules to maintain an open border, when the technoborder is found to not work properly in practice.
    As Sky have just reported the significance in Poland's position today is that it is the first incidence of a crack in the EU position and he also said Barnier is open to addressing the political declaration with a generous offer
    I'm not doubting the Polish reports, just scratching my head as to how it leaves intact the EUs cover against the insured risk that the backstop provided. Oh well, their problem!
    It wasn't just that Poland has broken ranks, Mark Stone of Sky said that Barnier is looking at opening the political declaration and making a generous offer

    He then commented it is 'squeaky bum time.'

    Maybe the EU wached Question Time and the huge cheer when no deal was suggested
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Pro_Rata said:

    I'm not doubting the Polish reports, just scratching my head as to how it leaves intact the EUs cover against the insured risk that the backstop provided. Oh well, their problem!


    Perhaps combine with a referendum in NI to validate it? Hard to argue against that as a democratic safeguard.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Andrew said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I'm not doubting the Polish reports, just scratching my head as to how it leaves intact the EUs cover against the insured risk that the backstop provided. Oh well, their problem!


    Perhaps combine with a referendum in NI to validate it? Hard to argue against that as a democratic safeguard.
    What ?

    Would never get past the DUP. Non starter.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    Someone needs to tell Diane Abbott that if she talks crap, she is going to be interrupted..
    its not because she is black. its because she talks nonsense and doesn't know her brief nor understand numbers.

    She was merely making the point that Labour and the Conservatives are broadly neck and neck in the polls. Hardly nonsense.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    Pro_Rata said:

    Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

    1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
    2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
    3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

    Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years
    That’s not a flyer really. It means potentially 7 years of gridlock wrangling over a future relationship that may or may not be worth having; 7 years of being a rule taker over which we have no say. We’ve all got better things to do and paralysis on domestic policy for up to 7 years isn’t an option.
    Also, in his interview the Polish foreign minister has a go at Ireland ("the EU has become hostage to Ireland"), which is not well-calculated to make the Irish respond favourably. Poland is an outrider in the EU and I'll be surprised if the idea gets anywhere.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Andrew said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I'm not doubting the Polish reports, just scratching my head as to how it leaves intact the EUs cover against the insured risk that the backstop provided. Oh well, their problem!


    Perhaps combine with a referendum in NI to validate it? Hard to argue against that as a democratic safeguard.
    Ask us all, as an even more democratic safeguard.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,299

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AndyJS said:
    It is pathetic isn't it. May claims to be reaching out to other parties. They all tell her that she needs to rule out No Deal. She refuses, and says it is everyone else's fault that the cross-party approach has failed.

    So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up to the ERG and the bowler hats.

    She is truly pathetic. Truly awful. Truly clueless. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime. Whether it is Parliament, the Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.
    So Corbyn asks for something that will tear apart the Tory Party and therefore probably the Government with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.
    May seems to have given up on Parliament after about two days.

    But she is happy to entertain the wildest unicorn fantasies of her own backbench.
    She may have given up all together. She knows she can't do a deal, and is now making sure no one else can.
    Alternatively her final roll of the dice is to do what I've said all along - find a deal that her party and the DUP can back (Deal minus backstop) and go back to the EU with it. If they back it great we have a deal. If they don't so be it but we've tried every realistic avenue first.
    I think we had this discussion before, but Deal minus backstop isn't going to get the votes from her party. The backstop is only one issue, Tory MPs have lots of other objections.
    I think it will. JRM, Boris and many others have said they could back the deal without the backstop. There would only be diehard Remainers left blocking the deal in an attempt to get s referendum (but thus risking no deal) if the leavers fall into line to get Brexit over the line.

    Can you name a single Leaver who has said they would oppose the deal even if the backstop were removed?
    Guto certainly. And according to him, that's a majority position among those that oppose the deal.
    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/01/guto-bebb-conservative-mps-opposition-to-this-deal-is-about-far-more-than-just-the-backstop.html
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

    1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
    2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
    3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

    Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years
    That’s not a flyer really. It means potentially 7 years of gridlock wrangling over a future relationship that may or may not be worth having; 7 years of being a rule taker over which we have no say. We’ve all got better things to do and paralysis on domestic policy for up to 7 years isn’t an option.
    Also, in his interview the Polish foreign minister has a go at Ireland ("the EU has become hostage to Ireland"), which is not well-calculated to make the Irish respond favourably. Poland is an outrider in the EU and I'll be surprised if the idea gets anywhere.
    Interesting to see if Italy endorse Poland and then the other visegrad countries come on board

    This is a very early sign of a split in the EU and seems to add to the anti EU stance coming from Poland and Italy
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019
    https://twitter.com/timescorbyn/status/1087294098908872704?s=21

    This is how I imagine he got when people suggested he needed to negotiate with the tories over brexit...
  • Also, in his interview the Polish foreign minister has a go at Ireland ("the EU has become hostage to Ireland"), which is not well-calculated to make the Irish respond favourably. Poland is an outrider in the EU and I'll be surprised if the idea gets anywhere.

    He's right, though, isn't he? In fact, Ireland has become a hostage to Ireland. Whilst you are right that Poland is not all that influential, the question is whether his thinking is more widely shared elsewhere in the EU. I suspect it is, but they need a face-saving way out which is acceptable to the Irish if they are to change their stance. It's not clear that there is one.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2milion distribution

    Incredible. Not even in my wildest dreams did I think that Leavers were capable of allowing, yet alone actively pursuing, No Deal. Indeed, had a Remainer suggested this during the referendum campaign I would have rebuked him for disseminating fantastic and terrible lies. However, this was evidently Leave's plan all along. They did well to keep it so secret. Had a single Leaver uttered a word of it before the vote it would have killed the case for Brexit stone dead.
    Indeed as an article in the NS (George Eaton) points out in respect of No Deal. "This was not the outcome predicted by Tory Brexiteers. In July 2017, Boris Johnson declared: “There is no plan for no deal because we are going to get a great deal.”

    Leaving aside the fact that Johnson seems to make it up as he goes along and then goes all Trumpton and declares it "fake news" if anyone points out his previous utterances, I distinctly recall No Deal being ridiculed as "Project Fear" by leavers throughout the campaign.

    I don't believe that the ultras would have ever accepted any deal. The diverse coalition put together to get them over the line in the referendum was cannon fodder. Once the vote was out of the way they were always going to try to manoeuvre the country into the extreme form of Brexit that they wanted all along but were too scared to admit out loud before the vote.

    Any legal tactic to thwart them is fully justified.
  • rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AndyJS said:
    It is pathetic isn'

    So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up to the ERG and the bowler hats.

    She is truly pathetic. Truly awful. Truly clueless. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime. Whether it is Parliament, the Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.
    So Corbyn asks for something that will tear apart the Tory Party and therefore probably the Government with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.
    May seems to have given up on Parliament after about two days.

    But she is happy to entertain the wildest unicorn fantasies of her own backbench.
    She may have given up all together. She knows she can't do a deal, and is now making sure no one else can.
    Alternatively her final roll of the dice is to do what I've said all along - find a deal that her party and the DUP can back (Deal minus backstop) and go back to the EU with it. If they back it great we have a deal. If they don't so be it but we've tried every realistic avenue first.
    I think we had this discussion before, but Deal minus backstop isn't going to get the votes from her party. The backstop is only one issue, Tory MPs have lots of other objections.
    I think it will. JRM, Boris and many others have said they could back the deal without the backstop. There would only be diehard Remainers left blocking the deal in an attempt to get s referendum (but thus risking no deal) if the leavers fall into line to get Brexit over the line.

    Can you name a single Leaver who has said they would oppose the deal even if the backstop were removed?
    Guto certainly. And according to him, that's a majority position among those that oppose the deal.
    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/01/guto-bebb-conservative-mps-opposition-to-this-deal-is-about-far-more-than-just-the-backstop.html
    He is my mp, a remainer and a Dominic Grieve supporter. He may be de-selected. He is not popular
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    Harris: "let's claim the future". Opening campaign vid:

    https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1087327713277460481
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    NB all those who imagine Italy might be the next domino to fall out of the EU:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1087343945946939392
  • NB all those who imagine Italy might be the next domino to fall out of the EU:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1087343945946939392

    They want to change the EU from within. They will not leave but cause chaos if they can
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Fenman said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Just got a Wetherspoons magazine through the letterbox all about brexit and how no deal will be good for UK , apparently 2 million distribution


    Distribution does not equal readership.
    To be fair it does say “read by 2 million customers “

    The Brexit Big three businessmen were the owners of Wetherspoons, JCB and Pattiserie Valerie. One down, two to go.
    Except none are “down”. One appears to have suffered financial fraud, but the owner has put money in the business to keep it going.
    I wonder how many Remainer-supporting businesses have gone down (or are going)
    I hope as few as business as have gone bust as possible. Being gleeful about it, is revelling in loss of peoples jobs. Is as distasteful as all the stuff about old dying off because they supported leave.
    I (unlike the commentator to which I replied) don't revel in it - the vast majority of businesses going down are struggling because of the difficulty in promoting themselves on the internet and has nothing to do with Brexit. (About 20 years ago at a conference I pointed out that the internet would eventually result in a very small number of very successful companies - for the simple reason is that if you look for a product anywhere in the UK, you would get the same results thrown at you from the search engine you preferred to use. Just consider the amount spent on SEO.)

    I would point out, however, that the demise of the high street in many northern towns is probably one of the reasons for the referendum decision. Many voters will have lost their jobs or known someone who had and needed someone to blame.
    "..and has nothing to do with Brexit"

    That's a phrase we are going to hear a lot of over the next decade!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Pro_Rata said:

    Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

    1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
    2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
    3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

    Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years
    That’s not a flyer really. It means potentially 7 years of gridlock wrangling over a future relationship that may or may not be worth having; 7 years of being a rule taker over which we have no say. We’ve all got better things to do and paralysis on domestic policy for up to 7 years isn’t an option.
    Also, in his interview the Polish foreign minister has a go at Ireland ("the EU has become hostage to Ireland"), which is not well-calculated to make the Irish respond favourably. Poland is an outrider in the EU and I'll be surprised if the idea gets anywhere.
    Interesting to see if Italy endorse Poland and then the other visegrad countries come on board

    This is a very early sign of a split in the EU and seems to add to the anti EU stance coming from Poland and Italy
    So you are saying that the Deal may pass neither the Westminster parliament, nor the European one?
  • Harris really needs a boost from this. She needs to elevate herself into the top four behind Biden, Sanders and Warren, really.
  • Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

    1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
    2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
    3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

    Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years
    That’s not a flyer really. It means potentially 7 years of gridlock wrangling over a future relationship that may or may not be worth having; 7 years of being a rule taker over which we have no say. We’ve all got better things to do and paralysis on domestic policy for up to 7 years isn’t an option.
    Also, in his interview the Polish foreign minister has a go at Ireland ("the EU has become hostage to Ireland"), which is not well-calculated to make the Irish respond favourably. Poland is an outrider in the EU and I'll be surprised if the idea gets anywhere.
    Interesting to see if Italy endorse Poland and then the other visegrad countries come on board

    This is a very early sign of a split in the EU and seems to add to the anti EU stance coming from Poland and Italy
    So you are saying that the Deal may pass neither the Westminster parliament, nor the European one?
    No - just passing on the information of the first crack in EU unity
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    kinabalu said:

    Someone needs to tell Diane Abbott that if she talks crap, she is going to be interrupted..
    its not because she is black. its because she talks nonsense and doesn't know her brief nor understand numbers.

    She was merely making the point that Labour and the Conservatives are broadly neck and neck in the polls. Hardly nonsense.

    Abbott has made herself . by her own stupidity into someone people don't want to listen to.

    She talks bullocks, and even if for one instant she doesn't, people assume that she is.. its of her own making, oh, and she's a hypocrite too, especially over state education.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    TGOHF said:



    Corbyn has a much more moderate position than Soubry - he wants to respect the result of the referendum.

    TGOHF praising Corbyn - the End of Days approacheth...

    They've arrived.

    See this comment from me last night


    "NickPalmer said:
    kle4 said:
    It really is the last straw from May. I'm honestly trying to think of if there are any MPs at this point who would be worse to have in this situation and I don't think I'm getting beyond a handful. Chris Williamson? Chris Chope? It's a select group.

    lol!

    MY comment:-

    I now think of May as actively dangerous for the country, so useless is she.

    It is getting close to the point where even I, no Corbyn fan, to put it mildly, will start thinking, fuck it, how much worse than the old trout can he be? That is how bad she is. She’s turned @kle4 into a Remainer and me, almost, into a Corbynite.

    It’s a funny old world.

    Goodnight.

    PS Don’t get your hopes up, @NickPalmer. I’m sure normal service will be resumed tomorrow."
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Pro_Rata said:

    Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

    1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
    2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
    3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

    Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years
    That’s not a flyer really. It means potentially 7 years of gridlock wrangling over a future relationship that may or may not be worth having; 7 years of being a rule taker over which we have no say. We’ve all got better things to do and paralysis on domestic policy for up to 7 years isn’t an option.
    This is to determine the least disruptive framework for the

    Also, in his interview the Polish foreign minister has a go at Ireland ("the EU has become hostage to Ireland"), which is not well-calculated to make the Irish respond favourably. Poland is an outrider in the EU and I'll be surprised if the idea gets anywhere.

    He's right, though, isn't he? In fact, Ireland has become a hostage to Ireland. Whilst you are right that Poland is not all that influential, the question is whether his thinking is more widely shared elsewhere in the EU. I suspect it is, but they need a face-saving way out which is acceptable to the Irish if they are to change their stance. It's not clear that there is one.
    Nah - for EU nations individually the UK is 6-9% of trade (I appreciate for Ireland it is far higher). They can afford to take the moral high ground.

    It's this "BMW will force the EU to do a deal" thinking that is actually quite dangerous.

    The backstop is here to stay. For very good reasons. The challenge for MPs is to work out how to accept that and move on.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773

    kinabalu said:

    Someone needs to tell Diane Abbott that if she talks crap, she is going to be interrupted..
    its not because she is black. its because she talks nonsense and doesn't know her brief nor understand numbers.

    She was merely making the point that Labour and the Conservatives are broadly neck and neck in the polls. Hardly nonsense.

    Abbott has made herself . by her own stupidity into someone people don't want to listen to.

    She talks bullocks, and even if for one instant she doesn't, people assume that she is.. its of her own making, oh, and she's a hypocrite too, especially over state education.
    The latter is far worse imho, than whether she sometimes screws up the briefing notes and forgets numbers.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    NB all those who imagine Italy might be the next domino to fall out of the EU:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1087343945946939392

    yes

    as pointed out on the Italy thread 2 weeks ago
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773

    Harris really needs a boost from this. She needs to elevate herself into the top four behind Biden, Sanders and Warren, really.

    Only Warren running so far though of that list.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    NB all those who imagine Italy might be the next domino to fall out of the EU:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1087343945946939392

    yes

    as pointed out on the Italy thread 2 weeks ago
    I'm not expecting Italy to crash out of the EU more to have a financial crisis that creates fundamental issues within the EU..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773

    NB all those who imagine Italy might be the next domino to fall out of the EU:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1087343945946939392

    They want to change the EU from within. They will not leave but cause chaos if they can
    This is before the bond implosion that could happen.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    * disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.
    Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

    Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.

    Exhibit A - the Tories from 1990 to 2017 in Scotland and the Poll Tax...
    Exhibit B - the Tories in any mining area...
    Exhibit C - the Lib Dems and student fees
    I'd say that the Tories in mining areas are a counter-example.
    Tories won the Ashfield by-election in 1977 when it was heavily a mining area. With a 23% swing.....
    Nottinghamshire. Quite.
    There is a string of ex-mining constituencies in the Midlands and Yorkshire which have shifted to the Conservatives since the mid 80's.
    The pit heads have been demolished and replaced with Executive housing.

    Some may regard that as progress.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,299

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AndyJS said:
    It is pathetic isn'

    So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.
    So with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.
    May seems to have given up on Parliament after about two days.

    But she is happy to entertain the wildest unicorn fantasies of her own backbench.
    She may have given up all together. She knows she can't do a deal, and is now making sure no one else can.
    Alternatively her final roll of the dice is to do what I've said all along - find a deal that her party and the DUP can back (Deal minus backstop) and go back to the EU with it. If they back it great we have a deal. If they don't so be it but we've tried every realistic avenue first.
    I think we had this discussion before, but Deal minus backstop isn't going to get the votes from her party. The backstop is only one issue, Tory MPs have lots of other objections.
    I think it will. JRM, Boris and many others have said they could back the deal without the backstop. There would only be diehard Remainers left blocking the deal in an attempt to get s referendum (but thus risking no deal) if the leavers fall into line to get Brexit over the line.

    Can you name a single Leaver who has said they would oppose the deal even if the backstop were removed?
    Guto certainly. And according to him, that's a majority position among those that oppose the deal.
    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/01/guto-bebb-conservative-mps-opposition-to-this-deal-is-about-far-more-than-just-the-backstop.html
    He is my mp, a remainer and a Dominic Grieve supporter. He may be de-selected. He is not popular
    Sorry I realise PT said Leaver, should have read more closely.

    Steve Baker also said its not just the backstop in November.
    Also, I think some Scottish Tories said they would definitely vote against because of fishing issues.
    https://www.johnlamont.org/news/how-i-will-vote-brexit-deal
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    NB all those who imagine Italy might be the next domino to fall out of the EU:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1087343945946939392

    They want to change the EU from within. They will not leave but cause chaos if they can
    This is before the bond implosion that could happen.
    Well it could, but that risk can be overdone too:

    https://www.ft.com/content/e775b5ac-18ce-11e9-b93e-f4351a53f1c3
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    eek said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mike Ashley in talks to buy music chain HMV

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-46940238

    Why would anybody want to buy a music / dvd / computer game store in this day and age when everything is going digital.

    Is Ashley not doing as per Frasers - hang on to the prime locations and leases and ditch the rest of the company.
    I guess that makes more sense. And then what, sublease the prime locations, as I presume hmv don’t actually own much real estate locations themselves?
    I think he wants to merge the HMV stores with Game. It's probably worth looking at Game's Belong gaming arenas as to what he would try to do with the space..
    Not sure I like the sound of that either. Next gen consoles are going to be all digital downloads, and yes game arenas are having a bit of boom (mainly due to bloody fortnite) but i just don’t see esports here going like it is in Asia

    But then what do I know...nothing when it comes to retail.
    I don't either - I think it's 2 months since I was last in the Town Centre to buy anything - it was more me trying to work out why you would want town centre space and this was about the best idea I could come up with..
  • Harris really needs a boost from this. She needs to elevate herself into the top four behind Biden, Sanders and Warren, really.

    Only Warren running so far though of that list.
    Part of why she can afford to be fourth. As someone (sorry!) pointed out, we're rapidly approaching the part of the cycle where the frontrunner(s) become evident.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TOPPING said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Intrigued what TMay is plotting here. The only things I can think of that could remove the backstop which, lest we forget, would be necessary for EU to operate legally post-transition, not least if the UK continues to pee about for years e.g. .trying to make super Canada work in Ireland, are:

    1. Revival of the CCT, but applying to Ireland trade only and Ireland to tally up collection .with the EU (the CCT proposal was always Ireland focused anyway)
    2. Ireland to go for special EU territory and into a British Isles custom zone. As previously pointed out the optics of this for RoI would be very difficult.
    3. Go the other way and the UK accept fuller Customs Union with the EU.

    Or as Poland breaks ranks today with the EU and says limit the backstop to 5 years
    That’s not a flyer really. It means potentially 7 years of gridlock wrangling over a future relationship that may or may not be worth having; 7 years of being a rule taker over which we have no say. We’ve all got better things to do and paralysis on domestic policy for up to 7 years isn’t an option.
    This is to determine the least disruptive framework for the

    Also, in his interview the Polish foreign minister has a go at Ireland ("the EU has become hostage to Ireland"), which is not well-calculated to make the Irish respond favourably. Poland is an outrider in the EU and I'll be surprised if the idea gets anywhere.

    He's right, though, isn't he? In fact, Ireland has become a hostage to Ireland. Whilst you are right that Poland is not all that influential, the question is whether his thinking is more widely shared elsewhere in the EU. I suspect it is, but they need a face-saving way out which is acceptable to the Irish if they are to change their stance. It's not clear that there is one.
    Nah - for EU nations individually the UK is 6-9% of trade (I appreciate for Ireland it is far higher). They can afford to take the moral high ground.

    Uk 3rd biggest export market for Germany.

    Ireland not only exports to the Uk but uses us as a low cost, quick land bridge to the EU.

    They would be daft to be so intransigent that they guide the Uk down a no deal path.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    This is v good. An interesting take on a No Deal crash out, hour-by-hour. Be interested to hear what material problems the leavers have with it. It's not Armageddon, but it does have the ring of truth/plausibility, at least to me.
    https://members.tortoisemedia.com/2019/01/21/no-deal-tick-tock/content.html?sig=224KQD31D8z4AgM9cIZLJi-pURUO1dQ2X21e8N3Zhqw
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Why are Ireland so keen on a hard border? It's one of the most dishonest positions in thus whole mess, they've worked to ensure no deal more effectively than Rees-Mogg.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    kinabalu said:

    Someone needs to tell Diane Abbott that if she talks crap, she is going to be interrupted..
    its not because she is black. its because she talks nonsense and doesn't know her brief nor understand numbers.

    She was merely making the point that Labour and the Conservatives are broadly neck and neck in the polls. Hardly nonsense.

    Abbott has made herself . by her own stupidity into someone people don't want to listen to.

    She talks bullocks, and even if for one instant she doesn't, people assume that she is.. its of her own making, oh, and she's a hypocrite too, especially over state education.
    She did say before the last election that the more people saw of Corbyn the more they would like him. And she was right on that.

    She has many faults. But she is sometimes right. And she gave one of the best Parliamentary speeches I've ever heard when she was opposing Blair's appallingly authoritarian proposals to lock people up without trial for 42 days.

    So I have some time for her, some of the time anyway.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,737
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why are Ireland so keen on a hard border? It's one of the most dishonest positions in thus whole mess, they've worked to ensure no deal more effectively than Rees-Mogg.
    This is rubbish. If the backstop had never been an issue in the withdrawal agreement exactly the same people would have voted against it on the basis that we were paying £39bn for “nothing”.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    TGOHF said:

    Uk 3rd biggest export market for Germany.

    Ireland not only exports to the Uk but uses us as a low cost, quick land bridge to the EU.

    They would be daft to be so intransigent that they guide the Uk down a no deal path.

    Of course they would be. But we're in it far deeper than they are, on an individual nation basis.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,299
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:



    I think it will. JRM, Boris and many others have said they could back the deal without the backstop. There would only be diehard Remainers left blocking the deal in an attempt to get s referendum (but thus risking no deal) if the leavers fall into line to get Brexit over the line.

    Can you name a single Leaver who has said they would oppose the deal even if the backstop were removed?

    Guto certainly. And according to him, that's a majority position among those that oppose the deal.
    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/01/guto-bebb-conservative-mps-opposition-to-this-deal-is-about-far-more-than-just-the-backstop.html
    He is my mp, a remainer and a Dominic Grieve supporter. He may be de-selected. He is not popular
    Sorry I realise PT said Leaver, should have read more closely.

    Steve Baker also said its not just the backstop in November.
    Also, I think some Scottish Tories said they would definitely vote against because of fishing issues.
    https://www.johnlamont.org/news/how-i-will-vote-brexit-deal
    I think John Redwood would also be opposed:
    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/01/16/what-now/

    "There is no point in going back to the EU to try to fix the Withdrawal Agreement. Even if the EU was prepared after this to take the Irish backstop out of the Agreement there is still no majority to carry the proposal, though maybe half the Conservatives against it in its current form might think again"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    Abbott has made herself . by her own stupidity into someone people don't want to listen to.

    She talks bullocks, and even if for one instant she doesn't, people assume that she is.. its of her own making, oh, and she's a hypocrite too, especially over state education.

    Are you a racist?
  • Anorak said:
    Is it by any chance that bloke who will unconditionally sit down with foreign terrorists but not with the elected government of his own country?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:
    Is it by any chance that bloke who will unconditionally sit down with foreign terrorists but not with the elected government of his own country?
    We have a winner. Do you want the teddy holding the Palestinian flag, or the T-Shirt with the picture of Hugo Chavez?
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    * disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.
    Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

    Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.

    Exhibit A - the Tories from 1990 to 2017 in Scotland and the Poll Tax...
    Exhibit B - the Tories in any mining area...
    Exhibit C - the Lib Dems and student fees
    I'd say that the Tories in mining areas are a counter-example.
    Tories won the Ashfield by-election in 1977 when it was heavily a mining area. With a 23% swing.....
    Nottinghamshire. Quite.
    There is a string of ex-mining constituencies in the Midlands and Yorkshire which have shifted to the Conservatives since the mid 80's.
    The pit heads have been demolished and replaced with Executive housing.

    Some may regard that as progress.
    On most cases the pit heads have been replaced with other businesses which are contributing to our near full employment.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,737
    Anorak said:
    Presumably a protest against Dana International in the Eurovision Song Contest.
  • Anorak said:

    Anorak said:
    Is it by any chance that bloke who will unconditionally sit down with foreign terrorists but not with the elected government of his own country?
    We have a winner. Do you want the teddy holding the Palestinian flag, or the T-Shirt with the picture of Hugo Chavez?
    Have you run out of the t-shirts with the picture of the bloke shouting that may should shoot herself with John McDonnell appauding?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    You is racist and sexist innit...

    And are they?
  • NB all those who imagine Italy might be the next domino to fall out of the EU:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1087343945946939392

    yes

    as pointed out on the Italy thread 2 weeks ago
    The risk seems to be not that Italy would leave but that they will stay in and with Poland and Hungary make such a mess that the EU would wish they had left.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    It is extraordinary that the country which invented insurance and the world's oldest insurance market now does not understand that an insurance policy (which is what the backstop is) is not something which the insurer (Britain) cannot withdraw unilaterally. Nor does it understand the concept of uberrima fides (utmost good faith), essential to all insurance.

    Au contraire, it is behaving in a way which is guaranteed to engender mistrust on the part of those countries dealing with it.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:
    Presumably a protest against Dana International in the Eurovision Song Contest.
    Not a peep of protest about Australia, funnily enough.

    He must be transphobic. That would be it.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Anorak said:
    Presumably a protest against Dana International in the Eurovision Song Contest.
    They're going to be livid when they hear that Australia are in it now.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2019
    "England’s rebel spirit is rising – and it wants a no-deal Brexit
    John Harris

    In the face of political stasis, the seductive myth of Britain standing alone against its oppressors is taking hold"

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/21/england-rebel-spirit-no-deal-brexit
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mrs May is a barnacle.

    And barnacles are quite good at playing chicken - in that they aren't nimble enough to move even if they want to.

    Expect the EU to blink. Or not. But Mrs May wont.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    A Tory split of a kind seems inevitable.
    However, I don’t expect any/many of the sane wing of the Tory party to survive in the event of a new Centre party being formed.

    Centre-right-ism - although allegedly the national creed, wouldn’t get enough votes outside the more prosperous parts of London and the more liberal Home Counties (Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey).

    The Lords might be more interesting, and whether the Scottish Tories separate themselves formally from the national party.

    I don't think its inevitable at all. There are no more than about a dozen hardline Europhiles prepared to die in the ditch to arrange Remain. Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry etc.

    They'll even get dragged along ultimately just as former hardline Eurosceptics were, or if there schism it is more likely to be a tiny handful of defections to the Lib Dems than any real split.
    I'm at a loss while people think Grieve and co are die in the ditch Remain - many of them seem more intent on stopping a No Deal Brexit that would be political suicide for the Tories (it just happens that most of the others aren't bright enough to see the disaster* that it would be).

    * disaster means that unexpected things (unknown unknowns) will go wrong and the Tories will get the blame for it.
    Not sure that voters would take it out on Conservatives if there were problems with No Deal Brexit.

    Voters tend to look forward rather than punish or reward previous PMs or governments eg Churchill post war, Lib Dem coalition.

    Exhibit A - the Tories from 1990 to 2017 in Scotland and the Poll Tax...
    Exhibit B - the Tories in any mining area...
    Exhibit C - the Lib Dems and student fees
    I'd say that the Tories in mining areas are a counter-example.
    Tories won the Ashfield by-election in 1977 when it was heavily a mining area. With a 23% swing.....
    Nottinghamshire. Quite.
    There is a string of ex-mining constituencies in the Midlands and Yorkshire which have shifted to the Conservatives since the mid 80's.
    I get the impression most of those ex-mining seats are still pretty left-wing on economic issues like high taxes on the wealthy, etc. It's just that social/nationalistic issues are more important for a lot of voters in those areas at the moment.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    AndyJS said:

    "England’s rebel spirit is rising – and it wants a no-deal Brexit
    John Harris

    In the face of political stasis, the seductive myth of Britain standing alone against its oppressors is taking hold"

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/21/england-rebel-spirit-no-deal-brexit

    I'm surprised by the popularity of a No Deal Brexit.

    Certainly, if A50 is revoked or postponed, there would be a big constituency for a Farage party in the EU elections.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    edited January 2019
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Uk 3rd biggest export market for Germany.

    Ireland not only exports to the Uk but uses us as a low cost, quick land bridge to the EU.

    They would be daft to be so intransigent that they guide the Uk down a no deal path.

    Of course they would be. But we're in it far deeper than they are, on an individual nation basis.
    I thought the concept of the EU was that everyone was supposed to be a winner? Their negotiating strategy throws that (and Ireland) out the window......
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    eek said:

    eek said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mike Ashley in talks to buy music chain HMV

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-46940238

    Why would anybody want to buy a music / dvd / computer game store in this day and age when everything is going digital.

    Is Ashley not doing as per Frasers - hang on to the prime locations and leases and ditch the rest of the company.
    I guess that makes more sense. And then what, sublease the prime locations, as I presume hmv don’t actually own much real estate locations themselves?
    I think he wants to merge the HMV stores with Game. It's probably worth looking at Game's Belong gaming arenas as to what he would try to do with the space..
    Not sure I like the sound of that either. Next gen consoles are going to be all digital downloads, and yes game arenas are having a bit of boom (mainly due to bloody fortnite) but i just don’t see esports here going like it is in Asia

    But then what do I know...nothing when it comes to retail.
    I don't either - I think it's 2 months since I was last in the Town Centre to buy anything - it was more me trying to work out why you would want town centre space and this was about the best idea I could come up with..
    I think that the gaming arenas could be successful. We are spending less in shops on th8ngs and more on experiences like escape rooms
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AndyJS said:

    "England’s rebel spirit is rising – and it wants a no-deal Brexit
    John Harris

    In the face of political stasis, the seductive myth of Britain standing alone against its oppressors is taking hold"

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/21/england-rebel-spirit-no-deal-brexit

    He also underestimates the appeal of no deal as it would bring the "Brexit yes or no" domination of the news to an end.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    New Thread

  • rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:


    I think we had this discussion before, but Deal minus backstop isn't going to get the votes from her party. The backstop is only one issue, Tory MPs have lots of other objections.

    I think it will. JRM, Boris and many others have said they could back the deal without the backstop. There would only be diehard Remainers left blocking the deal in an attempt to get s referendum (but thus risking no deal) if the leavers fall into line to get Brexit over the line.

    Can you name a single Leaver who has said they would oppose the deal even if the backstop were removed?
    Guto certainly. And according to him, that's a majority position among those that oppose the deal.
    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/01/guto-bebb-conservative-mps-opposition-to-this-deal-is-about-far-more-than-just-the-backstop.html
    I said name a Leaver; under what definition of the word is Guto a Leaver? He's a hardline Remainer who wants another referendum over any form of Brexit.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    More proof that Brexit is a death cult.
    All this while the po-faced maiden aunts on PB cry crocodile tears about so-called offensive Remainers.

    I do appreciate that unleashing the whirlwind weighs heavy on consciences. It should do, anyway.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    rkrkrk said:

    AndyJS said:
    It is pathetic isn't it. May claims to be reaching out to other parties. They all tell her that she needs to rule out No Deal. She refuses, and says it is everyone else's fault that the cross-party approach has failed.

    So it is back to Plan A, shout at Jonny-foreigner a bit more to try and make him understand, and cosy up to the ERG and the bowler hats.

    She is truly pathetic. Truly awful. Truly clueless. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime. Whether it is Parliament, the Cabinet or the 1922, can we just get rid of her and let someone else - anyone else - try and sort out the mess she has made of trying to get us a workable Brexit.
    So Corbyn asks for something that will tear apart the Tory Party and therefore probably the Government with no clear alternative. As a precondition to talking. There is no reaching out to Corbyn. The sensible Labour types are desperate to be seen talking.
    May seems to have given up on Parliament after about two days.

    But she is happy to entertain the wildest unicorn fantasies of her own backbench.
    She may have given up all together. She knows she can't do a deal, and is now making sure no one else can.
    Alternatively her final roll of the dice is to do what I've said all along - find a deal that her party and the DUP can back (Deal minus backstop) and go back to the EU with it. If they back it great we have a deal. If they don't so be it but we've tried every realistic avenue first.
    There does seem to be a push from the EU side to get the backstop removed.

    The ex Europe Minister of Portugal has an article on Politico this morning saying that the EU has got it all wrong and should just remove the backstop and get the deal signed.

    One to watch over the next few days as Leo is in Davos and meeting a number of EU country leaders.
    I seriously doubt it.

    Tbh, such was the scale of the defeat I'm not even sure that time limiting or even removing the backstop would be enough to get the deal through.

    I'm resigned to a second referendum and I'm resigned to burning my Tory membership card and donating as much as I can in time and money to win another referendum against the traitors and saboteurs in our own party.
This discussion has been closed.