politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now we’ve got some non-YouGov polls showing CON leads the posi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now we’ve got some non-YouGov polls showing CON leads the position looks a tad less good for LAB
Including the three new polls published tonight all the voting intention surveys so far in 2019 from Wikipedia pic.twitter.com/lzC2jqualW
Comments
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First, like the Conservatives.0
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And second, er, also like the Conservatives0
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Second like the class of my stamps0
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2nd class - like Labour0
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Who's Number Cruncher?0
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Matt Singh's website.GIN1138 said:Who's Number Cruncher?
He was the guy who called a Tory majority in 2015.0 -
The threats of revenge against him are pretty pointless, no matter if believed justified or not. He's going nowhere in the short term, another government will get in at some point and give him a peerage if he's denied one while Tories are in office, and he's only going to be even more vindictive.dots said:
Unless he’s loving it, it looks set to go on, so he’ll exploit every shred of vindictive against him as his excuse for staying putScott_P said:
TSE is the law! (well, the deputy)Anazina said:
Is the Ban Hammer only invoked for citing Scottish subsamples? Are Welsh fair game?TheScreamingEagles said:The Tories have a 14% lead in Welsh sub sample in the same Number Cruncher Poll.
Con 43%
Lab 29%0 -
Ah....TheScreamingEagles said:
Matt Singh's website.GIN1138 said:Who's Number Cruncher?
He was the guy who called a Tory majority in 2015.
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It'd breach his human rights...TheScreamingEagles said:Can we deport this foreign born criminal?
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593
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Isn't it discrimination to treat a British citizen differently just because they were born abroad?TheScreamingEagles said:Can we deport this foreign born criminal?
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Ooh, can we have a 'day the polls turned' headline, to look back on in embarrassment?0
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FPT
Would Churchill have wanted Britain to join the EU?
Great Britain, the British Commonwealth of Nations, mighty America, and I trust Soviet Russia - for then indeed all would be well - must be the friends and sponsors of the new Europe and must champion its right to live and shine.
- WS Churchill, Zurich, 1946
http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/astonish.html0 -
Has he cracked or is it nothing?
US President Donald Trump has set out new plans on his Mexican wall project to try to end a partial government shutdown lasting more than four weeks.
One of his "compromises" was on so-called Dreamers - who entered the US illegally when young. He still wants $5.7bn (£4.5bn) to fund the wall
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-469355950 -
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Yup, the Number Cruncher Scottish subsample shall be the cherry on the parfait for that headline.kle4 said:Ooh, can we have a 'day the polls turned' headline, to look back on in embarrassment?
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Now read the Hague speech of 1948.Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT
Would Churchill have wanted Britain to join the EU?
Great Britain, the British Commonwealth of Nations, mighty America, and I trust Soviet Russia - for then indeed all would be well - must be the friends and sponsors of the new Europe and must champion its right to live and shine.
- WS Churchill, Zurich, 1946
http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/astonish.html0 -
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It's not a PB meme, it's an internet thing, why pretend otherwise? One I don't engage in myself by the way. It's just that easy, just relax for christ's sake.Anazina said:
Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.Floater said:2nd class - like Labour
This rant makes it five posts.
See what you have all done?0 -
For Anazina +1Omnium said:0 -
The PB Tory fanboys would vote for my cat if she had a blue rosette.kle4 said:0 -
Tribal voters are tribal voters, it's not surprising. But I bet even though tribal voters still don't usually switch, they might be willing to admit to not wanting a stonking majority. There have to be Labour tribalists very much in favour of a Labour PM, any Labour PM, but would not want Corbyn to have too large a majority.Anazina said:
The PB Tory fanboys would vote for my cat if she had a blue rosette.kle4 said:0 -
‘Internet’ shit, then. Somebody make it stop.kle4 said:
It's not a PB meme, it's an internet thing, why pretend otherwise? One I don't engage in myself by the way. It's just that easy, just relax for christ's sake.Anazina said:
Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.Floater said:2nd class - like Labour
This rant makes it five posts.
See what you have all done?0 -
How the actual fuck can any Opposition be behind by any sort of margin in the polls after the last week?!!!
It's like being told you have a worse hair stylist than Donald Trump.0 -
Yes, back to Germany with the rest. But not the Duchess of Sussex of course.TheScreamingEagles said:Can we deport this foreign born criminal?
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/10867363253515345930 -
First*
* Like a Vote Leave promise0 -
Arf!!ydoethur said:How the actual fuck can any Opposition be behind by any sort of margin in the polls after the last week?!!!
It's like being told you have a worse hair stylist than Donald Trump.0 -
Fuck off!Omnium said:0 -
Well it is all quite exciting. Obviously Labour will never worry about polls again after 2017, but the Tory position is still pretty remarkable. I do think the final thought is a bit off, Brexit will have dominated right up until 2022 at least, not that I expect the parliament to survive this year.
Pleasant dreams of a resolution to Brexit to all.0 -
I've crunched the latest three polls and it shows little change in the overall picture when the noise is factored out.
Tories remain 0.7% ahead of Labour and 26 seats short of an overall majority.
Con 38.5% Lab 37.8%, LD 9.0%
Con 300 seats, Lab 271, LD 17, SNP 40, PC 3, Green 1.
Labour can form a minority government with C&S from minor parties but the Tories can't, even with help from the DUP.0 -
If only it could.Anazina said:
‘Internet’ shit, then. Somebody make it stop.kle4 said:
It's not a PB meme, it's an internet thing, why pretend otherwise? One I don't engage in myself by the way. It's just that easy, just relax for christ's sake.Anazina said:
Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.Floater said:2nd class - like Labour
This rant makes it five posts.
See what you have all done?
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Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.0 -
Her politics are ambiguous.MarqueeMark said:
She doesn’t much like immigrants to our garden though.0 -
Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.0 -
FPT
Many organisations have fortunately not waited for the Government and are doing the contingency planning required. The problem is many still require some form of direction from Government on key issues - a friend works for a firm importing HGVs from Germany. They have made sales in January for truck deliveries in May and June and need to know if there will be a tariff imposed on the vehicles and who will collect the tariff.Foxy said:
What touching faith you have in the competence of our powers that be.
My source say they met last week "to plan a planning meeting". Seriously, that was a direct quote!
This is the kind of area Government planning should have been considering since March 2017 and talking about having a meeting with barely two months to go shows the breathtaking ineptitude of the Government.
It's getting to the point where a Government led by Corbyn would be a distinct improvement.
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I don't find it as surprising as most people suggest. For 18 months the Tories have dominated news headlines, and whilst the divisions and associated chaos might be expected to be damaging most people inclined to take a view have probably felt inclined to align themselves with one Tory faction or the other. Labour - and the other opposition parties - has been very much in the background though less so this week re the VONC. Moreover, many will be surprised that Labour manages to regularly poll circa 39%/40% despite the ferocity of attacks on Corbyn.kle4 said:Well it is all quite exciting. Obviously Labour will never worry about polls again after 2017, but the Tory position is still pretty remarkable. I do think the final thought is a bit off, Brexit will have dominated right up until 2022 at least, not that I expect the parliament to survive this year.
Pleasant dreams of a resolution to Brexit to all.0 -
Re those latest three polls. Just to reiterate (because it took me a deal of finger-counting to work out and I'd hate to see it wasted on a dead thread):Barnesian said:I've crunched the latest three polls and it shows little change in the overall picture when the noise is factored out.
Tories remain 0.7% ahead of Labour and 26 seats short of an overall majority.
Con 38.5% Lab 37.8%, LD 9.0%
Con 300 seats, Lab 271, LD 17, SNP 40, PC 3, Green 1.
Labour can form a minority government with C&S from minor parties but the Tories can't, even with help from the DUP.
Tory+UKIP = 45%, 44%, 44% in those three polls
Lab+LDem = 47%, 47% and, er, 47%0 -
Quotes?williamglenn said:
Now read the Hague speech of 1948.Sunil_Prasannan said:FPT
Would Churchill have wanted Britain to join the EU?
Great Britain, the British Commonwealth of Nations, mighty America, and I trust Soviet Russia - for then indeed all would be well - must be the friends and sponsors of the new Europe and must champion its right to live and shine.
- WS Churchill, Zurich, 1946
http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/astonish.html0 -
It’s an absolutely fantastic photograph. 4 parts Clint Eastwood to 1 part mafia bossRobD said:
It'd breach his human rights...TheScreamingEagles said:Can we deport this foreign born criminal?
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/10867363253515345930 -
SNP at 40 seats is very different to the outcome generated earlier by the NC Scotland subsample!Barnesian said:I've crunched the latest three polls and it shows little change in the overall picture when the noise is factored out.
Tories remain 0.7% ahead of Labour and 26 seats short of an overall majority.
Con 38.5% Lab 37.8%, LD 9.0%
Con 300 seats, Lab 271, LD 17, SNP 40, PC 3, Green 1.
Labour can form a minority government with C&S from minor parties but the Tories can't, even with help from the DUP.0 -
Are the Royals too miserly to employ a chauffeur??TheScreamingEagles said:Can we deport this foreign born criminal?
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593
REPUBLIC, NOW!0 -
Leave won't be an option in the second referendum. We will be asked if we want to revoke or remain.....glw said:
Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.0 -
The last thing this process needs is leaks from Cable.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.
That is not the way to go into good faith discussions. But we know from his period in government that he doesn't always respect such things.
Everyone needs to knuckle down, work hard and keep schtum until there is something to say.0 -
You will probably decline to believe it but there should be no doubt that if Leave, e.g. May's Deal, were to win over Remain in a 2nd Referendum, parliament would vote to progress it.glw said:
Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.
End of.0 -
I think if the referendum was close enough to the deadline, then Parliament would enact it, even if it was no-deal-burn-the-city-down-and-sow-the-ruins-with-salt. At some point the f*****g around has to stop.glw said:
Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.0 -
I don't think people like Grieve have any intention on stopping.viewcode said:
I think if the referendum was close enough to the deadline, then Parliament would enact it, even if it was no-deal-burn-the-city-down-and-sow-the-ruins-with-salt. At some point the f*****g around has to stop.glw said:
Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.0 -
'Cos we never get any leaks from the cabinet do we?oxfordsimon said:
The last thing this process needs is leaks from Cable.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.
That is not the way to go into good faith discussions. But we know from his period in government that he doesn't always respect such things.
Everyone needs to knuckle down, work hard and keep schtum until there is something to say.0 -
When you discount Others, does that equate to 52:48?Benpointer said:
Re those latest three polls. Just to reiterate (because it took me a deal of finger-counting to work out and I'd hate to see it wasted on a dead thread):Barnesian said:I've crunched the latest three polls and it shows little change in the overall picture when the noise is factored out.
Tories remain 0.7% ahead of Labour and 26 seats short of an overall majority.
Con 38.5% Lab 37.8%, LD 9.0%
Con 300 seats, Lab 271, LD 17, SNP 40, PC 3, Green 1.
Labour can form a minority government with C&S from minor parties but the Tories can't, even with help from the DUP.
Tory+UKIP = 45%, 44%, 44% in those three polls
Lab+LDem = 47%, 47% and, er, 47%
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If that's true why are we waiting now? If Parliament is going to respect our wishes why not respect the vote we have already had?Benpointer said:You will probably decline to believe it but there should be no doubt that if Leave, e.g. May's Deal, were to win over Remain in a 2nd Referendum, parliament would vote to progress it.
End of.
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Indeed, you can almost see the speech bubble:dots said:
It’s an absolutely fantastic photograph. 4 parts Clint Eastwood to 1 part mafia bossRobD said:
It'd breach his human rights...TheScreamingEagles said:Can we deport this foreign born criminal?
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593
"Get out of my way, you f&%king pleb paparazzi!"0 -
No, but he cannot stop a majority of Parliamentarians. The problem of course is finding a majority of Parliamentarians...oxfordsimon said:
I don't think people like Grieve have any intention on stopping.viewcode said:
I think if the referendum was close enough to the deadline, then Parliament would enact it, even if it was no-deal-burn-the-city-down-and-sow-the-ruins-with-salt. At some point the f*****g around has to stop.glw said:
Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning. 0 -
You'll have to ask the ERG & DUP.glw said:
If that's true why are we waiting now? If Parliament is going to respect our wishes why not respect the vote we have already had?Benpointer said:You will probably decline to believe it but there should be no doubt that if Leave, e.g. May's Deal, were to win over Remain in a 2nd Referendum, parliament would vote to progress it.
End of.0 -
I did say 'everyone'Benpointer said:
'Cos we never get any leaks from the cabinet do we?oxfordsimon said:
The last thing this process needs is leaks from Cable.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.
That is not the way to go into good faith discussions. But we know from his period in government that he doesn't always respect such things.
Everyone needs to knuckle down, work hard and keep schtum until there is something to say.
Running commentaries from anyone are unwelcome0 -
Phil did actually scream at a friend of mine whilst driving his team of horses through Windsor Park :Benpointer said:
Indeed, you can almost see the speech bubble:dots said:
It’s an absolutely fantastic photograph. 4 parts Clint Eastwood to 1 part mafia bossRobD said:
It'd breach his human rights...TheScreamingEagles said:Can we deport this foreign born criminal?
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593
"Get out of my way, you f&%king pleb paparazzi!"
"Get out of my FUCKING WAY!!"0 -
There won't be any tariffs on trucks imported from Germany unless the Government imposes them...which it might do if required to by WTO...but the Government hasn't thought of that...so, um?stodge said:FPT
Many organisations have fortunately not waited for the Government and are doing the contingency planning required. The problem is many still require some form of direction from Government on key issues - a friend works for a firm importing HGVs from Germany. They have made sales in January for truck deliveries in May and June and need to know if there will be a tariff imposed on the vehicles and who will collect the tariff.Foxy said:
What touching faith you have in the competence of our powers that be.
My source say they met last week "to plan a planning meeting". Seriously, that was a direct quote!
This is the kind of area Government planning should have been considering since March 2017 and talking about having a meeting with barely two months to go shows the breathtaking ineptitude of the Government.
It's getting to the point where a Government led by Corbyn would be a distinct improvement.
D'y'know, it really is a shitshow, isn't it? It's one thing to desire independence, it's quite another to rearrange the bureaucratic furniture to do it.0 -
47:44 does (allowing for rounding)MarqueeMark said:
When you discount Others, does that equate to 52:48?Benpointer said:
Re those latest three polls. Just to reiterate (because it took me a deal of finger-counting to work out and I'd hate to see it wasted on a dead thread):Barnesian said:I've crunched the latest three polls and it shows little change in the overall picture when the noise is factored out.
Tories remain 0.7% ahead of Labour and 26 seats short of an overall majority.
Con 38.5% Lab 37.8%, LD 9.0%
Con 300 seats, Lab 271, LD 17, SNP 40, PC 3, Green 1.
Labour can form a minority government with C&S from minor parties but the Tories can't, even with help from the DUP.
Tory+UKIP = 45%, 44%, 44% in those three polls
Lab+LDem = 47%, 47% and, er, 47%
0 -
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Which is why the referendum, if any, has to be May's Deal versus Remain. Both are immediately implementable.glw said:
Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.0 -
Maybe you should calm down?Anazina said:
Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.Floater said:2nd class - like Labour
This rant makes it five posts.
See what you have all done?
Many of your posts add little to this site except make it less pleasant for others.0 -
Nonsense. We love 'em!oxfordsimon said:
I did say 'everyone'Benpointer said:
'Cos we never get any leaks from the cabinet do we?oxfordsimon said:
The last thing this process needs is leaks from Cable.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.
That is not the way to go into good faith discussions. But we know from his period in government that he doesn't always respect such things.
Everyone needs to knuckle down, work hard and keep schtum until there is something to say.
Running commentaries from anyone are unwelcome0 -
Spooky!Benpointer said:
47:44 does (allowing for rounding)MarqueeMark said:
When you discount Others, does that equate to 52:48?Benpointer said:
Re those latest three polls. Just to reiterate (because it took me a deal of finger-counting to work out and I'd hate to see it wasted on a dead thread):Barnesian said:I've crunched the latest three polls and it shows little change in the overall picture when the noise is factored out.
Tories remain 0.7% ahead of Labour and 26 seats short of an overall majority.
Con 38.5% Lab 37.8%, LD 9.0%
Con 300 seats, Lab 271, LD 17, SNP 40, PC 3, Green 1.
Labour can form a minority government with C&S from minor parties but the Tories can't, even with help from the DUP.
Tory+UKIP = 45%, 44%, 44% in those three polls
Lab+LDem = 47%, 47% and, er, 47%
0 -
What if people did not understand or the nasty russians were involved again? Most people advocating a referendum do so on the basis people have changed their minds, meaning they support remain. Those people can hardly be assumed to take being wrong again well. Happily for them I don't think they are wrong.Benpointer said:
You will probably decline to believe it but there should be no doubt that if Leave, e.g. May's Deal, were to win over Remain in a 2nd Referendum, parliament would vote to progress it.glw said:
Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.
End of.0 -
You don't get to decide what other posters say and do.Anazina said:
‘Internet’ shit, then. Somebody make it stop.kle4 said:
It's not a PB meme, it's an internet thing, why pretend otherwise? One I don't engage in myself by the way. It's just that easy, just relax for christ's sake.Anazina said:
Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.Floater said:2nd class - like Labour
This rant makes it five posts.
See what you have all done?
If you don't like it here, go somewhere else or get your own blog.0 -
Blimey. Lucky you caught him on a good day, when he gives warnings.MarqueeMark said:
Phil did actually scream at a friend of mine whilst driving his team of horses through Windsor Park :Benpointer said:
Indeed, you can almost see the speech bubble:dots said:
It’s an absolutely fantastic photograph. 4 parts Clint Eastwood to 1 part mafia bossRobD said:
It'd breach his human rights...TheScreamingEagles said:Can we deport this foreign born criminal?
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593
"Get out of my way, you f&%king pleb paparazzi!"
"Get out of my FUCKING WAY!!"0 -
Why would they change their votes due to a referendum they will likely say is illegitimate?Benpointer said:You'll have to ask the ERG & DUP.
It seems to me that there's a fair chance we end up in essentially the same situation as we are in now. With a vote for which there is no majority in Parliament that is willing to honour it, only if we vote the "correct" way will a majority exist.
Right now there's no majority for anything other than Remain/BINO in Parliament, and even a general election won't change that unless the composition of MPs returned is drastically different from now. We already know that legislation already passed and manifesto commitments mean very little.0 -
Only if you are easily spooked!MarqueeMark said:
Spooky!Benpointer said:
47:44 does (allowing for rounding)MarqueeMark said:
When you discount Others, does that equate to 52:48?Benpointer said:
Re those latest three polls. Just to reiterate (because it took me a deal of finger-counting to work out and I'd hate to see it wasted on a dead thread):Barnesian said:I've crunched the latest three polls and it shows little change in the overall picture when the noise is factored out.
Tories remain 0.7% ahead of Labour and 26 seats short of an overall majority.
Con 38.5% Lab 37.8%, LD 9.0%
Con 300 seats, Lab 271, LD 17, SNP 40, PC 3, Green 1.
Labour can form a minority government with C&S from minor parties but the Tories can't, even with help from the DUP.
Tory+UKIP = 45%, 44%, 44% in those three polls
Lab+LDem = 47%, 47% and, er, 47%0 -
An interesting read - Perhaps Corbyn will be shown to have a better strategy. It seems his current strategy is let the Tories take the hit for Brexit, then hope things go badly.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Peter Oborne's article in the mail this morning is a perfect analysis of Corbyn missing a fabulous opportunity for labour. If you can souce the article is a good read and should be for all labour politicians and members if the party ever wants to get into government.Nemtynakht said:
I think Corbyn has made an error of Judgement not sitting down with May. He could have had a very short meeting, and said she was not serious. He provided the opportunity for his opponents to bring his past behaviour and apply it to the current situationjustin124 said:CON: 38% (+1)
LAB: 37% (-2)
LDEM: 10% (+2)
UKIP: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (-)
via @ComRes, 16 - 17 Jan
Neck and neck methinks!0 -
As I recall from the first season of The Crown before I fell asleep from boredom, getting to actually do things (in that case flying a plane, but perhaps as simple as driving a car) is something His Highness takes very seriously.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Are the Royals too miserly to employ a chauffeur??TheScreamingEagles said:Can we deport this foreign born criminal?
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593
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Fifth. Like a column.Casino_Royale said:
You don't get to decide what other posters say and do.Anazina said:
‘Internet’ shit, then. Somebody make it stop.kle4 said:
It's not a PB meme, it's an internet thing, why pretend otherwise? One I don't engage in myself by the way. It's just that easy, just relax for christ's sake.Anazina said:
Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.Floater said:2nd class - like Labour
This rant makes it five posts.
See what you have all done?
If you don't like it here, go somewhere else or get your own blog.0 -
Some people are able to see past more than the immediacy of stopping Brexit then, even if Grieve cares for nothing else.Scott_P said:0 -
Another day closer to the single currency0
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May could get the MV passed now 'subject to confirmation through a binding referendum' - i.e. if her Deal wins, she can just sign the WA treaty.glw said:
Why would they change their votes due to a referendum they will likely say is illegitimate?Benpointer said:You'll have to ask the ERG & DUP.
It seems to me that there's a fair chance we end up in essentially the same situation as we are in now. With a vote for which there is no majority in Parliament that is willing to honour it, only if we vote the "correct" way will a majority exist.
Right now there's no majority for anything other than Remain/BINO in Parliament, and even a general election won't change that unless the composition of MPs returned is drastically different from now. We already know that legislation already passed and manifesto commitments mean very little.0 -
I agree, but I'd like to see some thought about what happens if we vote "wrong" again. The 2nd referendum crowd are playing with fire, they need to think very carefully about what happens after the vote.kle4 said:What if people did not understand or the nasty russians were involved again? Most people advocating a referendum do so on the basis people have changed their minds, meaning they support remain. Those people can hardly be assumed to take being wrong again well. Happily for them I don't think they are wrong.
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And this week's excuse for Jeremy to ensure "no deal" is "constitutional arson". OK, good to know. Thanks for playing Jeremy!Scott_P said:
Next week's episode: my mum said I was excused from voting because I have a condition.0 -
If that's your criteria no deal is immediately implementable too. Any referendum has to include all possible outcomes.FF43 said:
Which is why the referendum, if any, has to be May's Deal versus Remain. Both are immediately implementable.glw said:
Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.0 -
I am glad you read it and under any normal labour leader they could have taken the initiative instead of handing the batten to TMNemtynakht said:
An interesting read - Perhaps Corbyn will be shown to have a better strategy. It seems his current strategy is let the Tories take the hit for Brexit, then hope things go badly.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Peter Oborne's article in the mail this morning is a perfect analysis of Corbyn missing a fabulous opportunity for labour. If you can souce the article is a good read and should be for all labour politicians and members if the party ever wants to get into government.Nemtynakht said:
I think Corbyn has made an error of Judgement not sitting down with May. He could have had a very short meeting, and said she was not serious. He provided the opportunity for his opponents to bring his past behaviour and apply it to the current situationjustin124 said:CON: 38% (+1)
LAB: 37% (-2)
LDEM: 10% (+2)
UKIP: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (-)
via @ComRes, 16 - 17 Jan
Neck and neck methinks!0 -
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No deal isn't easily definable, let alone implementable. If it just means "cross the threshold without a withdrawal agreement", for how much longer is the government not allowed to do a deal with the EU? What about the implications for the union?steve_garner said:
If that's your criteria no deal is immediately implementable too. Any referendum has to include all possible outcomes.FF43 said:
Which is why the referendum, if any, has to be May's Deal versus Remain. Both are immediately implementable.glw said:
Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.0 -
Presume there are various technical methods of estimating the total croud size?williamglenn said:
Average width of march x speed of march x diddly squat.0 -
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Even if the accident was his fault, plenty of people are in accidents and don't quit driving.TheScreamingEagles said:hts://twitter.com/rjmyers/status/1086745790075281410
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My scientific method tells me there's 72 virgins in that picture.Benpointer said:
Presume there are various technical methods of estimating the total croud size?williamglenn said:
Average width of march x speed of march x diddly squat.0 -
No Deal is the absence of any arrangement of any kind, not just with the EU but with most third countries as well. It's not viable in any meaningful sense, which doesn't mean necessarily it won't happen. And no, referendums almost never include all possible outcomes. The point of this referendum if to say, this is the best and only deal the government has negotiated with the EU. Do you want to go ahead?steve_garner said:
If that's your criteria no deal is immediately implementable too. Any referendum has to include all possible outcomes.FF43 said:
Which is why the referendum, if any, has to be May's Deal versus Remain. Both are immediately implementable.glw said:
Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.IanB2 said:Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.0 -
You including the trees to get to that number?TheScreamingEagles said:
My scientific method tells me there's 72 virgins in that picture.Benpointer said:
Presume there are various technical methods of estimating the total croud size?williamglenn said:
Average width of march x speed of march x diddly squat.0 -
Does Putin have shares in High Vis vest manufacturing?williamglenn said:0 -
Note that the NumberCruncher poll is up to 9 days old and they say the recent sample was less favourable for the Tories:
"The fieldwork was carried out both before and after the vote on the withdrawal agreement, in roughly equal proportions, allowing us to examine whether the event affected support for the Conservatives. Our modelling suggests a high probability that Tory support was higher in the days before the vote than after it, although it is harder to be precise about how large or durable any impact will prove to be."
So like the other polls it basically means they're tied. But honestly it's a mug's game to get much out of the polls in the volatile situation. I think most people are just suspending judgment on Brexit and quoting their previous voting intention.0 -
On the contrary, it's very east to define. "To leave the European Union without a treaty signed and agreed by the UK Government and the European Council".williamglenn said:...No deal isn't easily definable, let alone implementable...
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