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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now we’ve got some non-YouGov polls showing CON leads the posi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now we’ve got some non-YouGov polls showing CON leads the position looks a tad less good for LAB

Including the three new polls published tonight all the voting intention surveys so far in 2019 from Wikipedia pic.twitter.com/lzC2jqualW

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    First, like the Conservatives.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    And second, er, also like the Conservatives
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Second like the class of my stamps
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    2nd class - like Labour
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Who's Number Cruncher?
  • Can we deport this foreign born criminal?

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593
  • GIN1138 said:

    Who's Number Cruncher?

    Matt Singh's website.

    He was the guy who called a Tory majority in 2015.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dots said:

    Scott_P said:
    Unless he’s loving it, it looks set to go on, so he’ll exploit every shred of vindictive against him as his excuse for staying put
    The threats of revenge against him are pretty pointless, no matter if believed justified or not. He's going nowhere in the short term, another government will get in at some point and give him a peerage if he's denied one while Tories are in office, and he's only going to be even more vindictive.
    Anazina said:

    The Tories have a 14% lead in Welsh sub sample in the same Number Cruncher Poll.

    Con 43%

    Lab 29%

    Is the Ban Hammer only invoked for citing Scottish subsamples? Are Welsh fair game?
    TSE is the law! (well, the deputy)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    GIN1138 said:

    Who's Number Cruncher?

    Matt Singh's website.

    He was the guy who called a Tory majority in 2015.
    Ah.... :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Can we deport this foreign born criminal?

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593

    It'd breach his human rights... :p
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Can we deport this foreign born criminal?

    Isn't it discrimination to treat a British citizen differently just because they were born abroad?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Ooh, can we have a 'day the polls turned' headline, to look back on in embarrassment?
  • FPT

    Would Churchill have wanted Britain to join the EU?

    Great Britain, the British Commonwealth of Nations, mighty America, and I trust Soviet Russia - for then indeed all would be well - must be the friends and sponsors of the new Europe and must champion its right to live and shine.

    - WS Churchill, Zurich, 1946

    http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/astonish.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    kle4 said:

    Ooh, can we have a 'day the polls turned' headline, to look back on in embarrassment?

    "Blue dawn". 50 point in the polls here we come! :p
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Has he cracked or is it nothing?

    US President Donald Trump has set out new plans on his Mexican wall project to try to end a partial government shutdown lasting more than four weeks.

    One of his "compromises" was on so-called Dreamers - who entered the US illegally when young. He still wants $5.7bn (£4.5bn) to fund the wall


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46935595
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Ooh, can we have a 'day the polls turned' headline, to look back on in embarrassment?

    "Blue dawn". 50 point in the polls here we come! :p
    Given how incompetent they've been I don't think anyone should want such a Tory lead! Not even Tories and Tory sympathisers.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
  • kle4 said:

    Ooh, can we have a 'day the polls turned' headline, to look back on in embarrassment?

    Yup, the Number Cruncher Scottish subsample shall be the cherry on the parfait for that headline.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    FPT

    Would Churchill have wanted Britain to join the EU?

    Great Britain, the British Commonwealth of Nations, mighty America, and I trust Soviet Russia - for then indeed all would be well - must be the friends and sponsors of the new Europe and must champion its right to live and shine.

    - WS Churchill, Zurich, 1946

    http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/astonish.html

    Now read the Hague speech of 1948.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    I've lost track of your argument. Could yo repeat the post in order with annotations?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    It's not a PB meme, it's an internet thing, why pretend otherwise? One I don't engage in myself by the way. It's just that easy, just relax for christ's sake.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Omnium said:

    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    I've lost track of your argument. Could yo repeat the post in order with annotations?
    For Anazina +1
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    Unspoofable.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Ooh, can we have a 'day the polls turned' headline, to look back on in embarrassment?

    "Blue dawn". 50 point in the polls here we come! :p
    Given how incompetent they've been I don't think anyone should want such a Tory lead! Not even Tories and Tory sympathisers.
    The PB Tory fanboys would vote for my cat if she had a blue rosette.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Anazina said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Ooh, can we have a 'day the polls turned' headline, to look back on in embarrassment?

    "Blue dawn". 50 point in the polls here we come! :p
    Given how incompetent they've been I don't think anyone should want such a Tory lead! Not even Tories and Tory sympathisers.
    The PB Tory fanboys would vote for my cat if she had a blue rosette.
    Er....Brexiteer cat?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Anazina said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Ooh, can we have a 'day the polls turned' headline, to look back on in embarrassment?

    "Blue dawn". 50 point in the polls here we come! :p
    Given how incompetent they've been I don't think anyone should want such a Tory lead! Not even Tories and Tory sympathisers.
    The PB Tory fanboys would vote for my cat if she had a blue rosette.
    Tribal voters are tribal voters, it's not surprising. But I bet even though tribal voters still don't usually switch, they might be willing to admit to not wanting a stonking majority. There have to be Labour tribalists very much in favour of a Labour PM, any Labour PM, but would not want Corbyn to have too large a majority.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    It's not a PB meme, it's an internet thing, why pretend otherwise? One I don't engage in myself by the way. It's just that easy, just relax for christ's sake.
    ‘Internet’ shit, then. Somebody make it stop.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    How the actual fuck can any Opposition be behind by any sort of margin in the polls after the last week?!!!

    It's like being told you have a worse hair stylist than Donald Trump.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Can we deport this foreign born criminal?

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593

    Yes, back to Germany with the rest. But not the Duchess of Sussex of course.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    I've lost track of your argument. Could yo repeat the post in order with annotations?
    For Anazina +1

    Fuck off!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    First*

    * Like a Vote Leave promise
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    ydoethur said:

    How the actual fuck can any Opposition be behind by any sort of margin in the polls after the last week?!!!

    It's like being told you have a worse hair stylist than Donald Trump.

    Arf!!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    RobD said:

    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    Unspoofable.

    Fuck off!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Omnium said:

    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    I've lost track of your argument. Could yo repeat the post in order with annotations?
    Fuck off!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    I've lost track of your argument. Could yo repeat the post in order with annotations?
    For Anazina +1
    Hey aren't you supposed to be preparing your dueling skills! :)

    However you're right this time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Well it is all quite exciting. Obviously Labour will never worry about polls again after 2017, but the Tory position is still pretty remarkable. I do think the final thought is a bit off, Brexit will have dominated right up until 2022 at least, not that I expect the parliament to survive this year.

    Pleasant dreams of a resolution to Brexit to all.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    Anazina said:

    Omnium said:

    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    I've lost track of your argument. Could yo repeat the post in order with annotations?
    Fuck off!
    Hehe - sorry :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    I've lost track of your argument. Could yo repeat the post in order with annotations?
    For Anazina +1
    Hey aren't you supposed to be preparing your dueling skills! :)
    I ran away from that one sharpish, I know my skills would be lacking! :)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    I've crunched the latest three polls and it shows little change in the overall picture when the noise is factored out.

    Tories remain 0.7% ahead of Labour and 26 seats short of an overall majority.

    Con 38.5% Lab 37.8%, LD 9.0%
    Con 300 seats, Lab 271, LD 17, SNP 40, PC 3, Green 1.

    Labour can form a minority government with C&S from minor parties but the Tories can't, even with help from the DUP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Anazina said:

    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    It's not a PB meme, it's an internet thing, why pretend otherwise? One I don't engage in myself by the way. It's just that easy, just relax for christ's sake.
    ‘Internet’ shit, then. Somebody make it stop.
    If only it could. :(
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    I've lost track of your argument. Could yo repeat the post in order with annotations?
    For Anazina +1
    Hey aren't you supposed to be preparing your dueling skills! :)
    I ran away from that one sharpish, I know my skills would be lacking! :)
    A 19th Century PB.com may have been fun! Deadly, but fun!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Ooh, can we have a 'day the polls turned' headline, to look back on in embarrassment?

    "Blue dawn". 50 point in the polls here we come! :p
    Given how incompetent they've been I don't think anyone should want such a Tory lead! Not even Tories and Tory sympathisers.
    The PB Tory fanboys would vote for my cat if she had a blue rosette.
    Er....Brexiteer cat?
    Her politics are ambiguous.

    She doesn’t much like immigrants to our garden though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Anazina said:

    Omnium said:

    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    I've lost track of your argument. Could yo repeat the post in order with annotations?
    Fuck off!
    We're not the Judean People's Front, we're the People's Front of Judaea!
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    FPT
    Foxy said:


    What touching faith you have in the competence of our powers that be.

    My source say they met last week "to plan a planning meeting". Seriously, that was a direct quote!

    Many organisations have fortunately not waited for the Government and are doing the contingency planning required. The problem is many still require some form of direction from Government on key issues - a friend works for a firm importing HGVs from Germany. They have made sales in January for truck deliveries in May and June and need to know if there will be a tariff imposed on the vehicles and who will collect the tariff.

    This is the kind of area Government planning should have been considering since March 2017 and talking about having a meeting with barely two months to go shows the breathtaking ineptitude of the Government.

    It's getting to the point where a Government led by Corbyn would be a distinct improvement.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kle4 said:

    Well it is all quite exciting. Obviously Labour will never worry about polls again after 2017, but the Tory position is still pretty remarkable. I do think the final thought is a bit off, Brexit will have dominated right up until 2022 at least, not that I expect the parliament to survive this year.

    Pleasant dreams of a resolution to Brexit to all.

    I don't find it as surprising as most people suggest. For 18 months the Tories have dominated news headlines, and whilst the divisions and associated chaos might be expected to be damaging most people inclined to take a view have probably felt inclined to align themselves with one Tory faction or the other. Labour - and the other opposition parties - has been very much in the background though less so this week re the VONC. Moreover, many will be surprised that Labour manages to regularly poll circa 39%/40% despite the ferocity of attacks on Corbyn.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited January 2019
    Barnesian said:

    I've crunched the latest three polls and it shows little change in the overall picture when the noise is factored out.

    Tories remain 0.7% ahead of Labour and 26 seats short of an overall majority.

    Con 38.5% Lab 37.8%, LD 9.0%
    Con 300 seats, Lab 271, LD 17, SNP 40, PC 3, Green 1.

    Labour can form a minority government with C&S from minor parties but the Tories can't, even with help from the DUP.

    Re those latest three polls. Just to reiterate (because it took me a deal of finger-counting to work out and I'd hate to see it wasted on a dead thread):

    Tory+UKIP = 45%, 44%, 44% in those three polls
    Lab+LDem = 47%, 47% and, er, 47%
  • FPT

    Would Churchill have wanted Britain to join the EU?

    Great Britain, the British Commonwealth of Nations, mighty America, and I trust Soviet Russia - for then indeed all would be well - must be the friends and sponsors of the new Europe and must champion its right to live and shine.

    - WS Churchill, Zurich, 1946

    http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/astonish.html

    Now read the Hague speech of 1948.
    Quotes?
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    RobD said:

    Can we deport this foreign born criminal?

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593

    It'd breach his human rights... :p
    It’s an absolutely fantastic photograph. 4 parts Clint Eastwood to 1 part mafia boss
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Barnesian said:

    I've crunched the latest three polls and it shows little change in the overall picture when the noise is factored out.

    Tories remain 0.7% ahead of Labour and 26 seats short of an overall majority.

    Con 38.5% Lab 37.8%, LD 9.0%
    Con 300 seats, Lab 271, LD 17, SNP 40, PC 3, Green 1.

    Labour can form a minority government with C&S from minor parties but the Tories can't, even with help from the DUP.

    SNP at 40 seats is very different to the outcome generated earlier by the NC Scotland subsample!
  • Can we deport this foreign born criminal?

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593

    Are the Royals too miserly to employ a chauffeur??

    REPUBLIC, NOW!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.
    Leave won't be an option in the second referendum. We will be asked if we want to revoke or remain.....
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    The last thing this process needs is leaks from Cable.

    That is not the way to go into good faith discussions. But we know from his period in government that he doesn't always respect such things.

    Everyone needs to knuckle down, work hard and keep schtum until there is something to say.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.
    You will probably decline to believe it but there should be no doubt that if Leave, e.g. May's Deal, were to win over Remain in a 2nd Referendum, parliament would vote to progress it.

    End of.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.
    I think if the referendum was close enough to the deadline, then Parliament would enact it, even if it was no-deal-burn-the-city-down-and-sow-the-ruins-with-salt. At some point the f*****g around has to stop.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    viewcode said:

    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.
    I think if the referendum was close enough to the deadline, then Parliament would enact it, even if it was no-deal-burn-the-city-down-and-sow-the-ruins-with-salt. At some point the f*****g around has to stop.
    I don't think people like Grieve have any intention on stopping.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    The last thing this process needs is leaks from Cable.

    That is not the way to go into good faith discussions. But we know from his period in government that he doesn't always respect such things.

    Everyone needs to knuckle down, work hard and keep schtum until there is something to say.
    'Cos we never get any leaks from the cabinet do we?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    Barnesian said:

    I've crunched the latest three polls and it shows little change in the overall picture when the noise is factored out.

    Tories remain 0.7% ahead of Labour and 26 seats short of an overall majority.

    Con 38.5% Lab 37.8%, LD 9.0%
    Con 300 seats, Lab 271, LD 17, SNP 40, PC 3, Green 1.

    Labour can form a minority government with C&S from minor parties but the Tories can't, even with help from the DUP.

    Re those latest three polls. Just to reiterate (because it took me a deal of finger-counting to work out and I'd hate to see it wasted on a dead thread):

    Tory+UKIP = 45%, 44%, 44% in those three polls
    Lab+LDem = 47%, 47% and, er, 47%
    When you discount Others, does that equate to 52:48? ;)
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914

    You will probably decline to believe it but there should be no doubt that if Leave, e.g. May's Deal, were to win over Remain in a 2nd Referendum, parliament would vote to progress it.

    End of.

    If that's true why are we waiting now? If Parliament is going to respect our wishes why not respect the vote we have already had?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited January 2019
    dots said:

    RobD said:

    Can we deport this foreign born criminal?

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593

    It'd breach his human rights... :p
    It’s an absolutely fantastic photograph. 4 parts Clint Eastwood to 1 part mafia boss
    Indeed, you can almost see the speech bubble:

    "Get out of my way, you f&%king pleb paparazzi!"
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    viewcode said:

    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.
    I think if the referendum was close enough to the deadline, then Parliament would enact it, even if it was no-deal-burn-the-city-down-and-sow-the-ruins-with-salt. At some point the f*****g around has to stop.
    I don't think people like Grieve have any intention on stopping.
    No, but he cannot stop a majority of Parliamentarians. The problem of course is finding a majority of Parliamentarians... :(
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    glw said:

    You will probably decline to believe it but there should be no doubt that if Leave, e.g. May's Deal, were to win over Remain in a 2nd Referendum, parliament would vote to progress it.

    End of.

    If that's true why are we waiting now? If Parliament is going to respect our wishes why not respect the vote we have already had?
    You'll have to ask the ERG & DUP.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    The last thing this process needs is leaks from Cable.

    That is not the way to go into good faith discussions. But we know from his period in government that he doesn't always respect such things.

    Everyone needs to knuckle down, work hard and keep schtum until there is something to say.
    'Cos we never get any leaks from the cabinet do we?
    I did say 'everyone'

    Running commentaries from anyone are unwelcome
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    edited January 2019

    dots said:

    RobD said:

    Can we deport this foreign born criminal?

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593

    It'd breach his human rights... :p
    It’s an absolutely fantastic photograph. 4 parts Clint Eastwood to 1 part mafia boss
    Indeed, you can almost see the speech bubble:

    "Get out of my way, you f&%king pleb paparazzi!"
    Phil did actually scream at a friend of mine whilst driving his team of horses through Windsor Park :

    "Get out of my FUCKING WAY!!"
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    stodge said:

    FPT

    Foxy said:


    What touching faith you have in the competence of our powers that be.

    My source say they met last week "to plan a planning meeting". Seriously, that was a direct quote!

    Many organisations have fortunately not waited for the Government and are doing the contingency planning required. The problem is many still require some form of direction from Government on key issues - a friend works for a firm importing HGVs from Germany. They have made sales in January for truck deliveries in May and June and need to know if there will be a tariff imposed on the vehicles and who will collect the tariff.

    This is the kind of area Government planning should have been considering since March 2017 and talking about having a meeting with barely two months to go shows the breathtaking ineptitude of the Government.

    It's getting to the point where a Government led by Corbyn would be a distinct improvement.

    There won't be any tariffs on trucks imported from Germany unless the Government imposes them...which it might do if required to by WTO...but the Government hasn't thought of that...so, um?

    D'y'know, it really is a shitshow, isn't it? It's one thing to desire independence, it's quite another to rearrange the bureaucratic furniture to do it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Barnesian said:

    I've crunched the latest three polls and it shows little change in the overall picture when the noise is factored out.

    Tories remain 0.7% ahead of Labour and 26 seats short of an overall majority.

    Con 38.5% Lab 37.8%, LD 9.0%
    Con 300 seats, Lab 271, LD 17, SNP 40, PC 3, Green 1.

    Labour can form a minority government with C&S from minor parties but the Tories can't, even with help from the DUP.

    Re those latest three polls. Just to reiterate (because it took me a deal of finger-counting to work out and I'd hate to see it wasted on a dead thread):

    Tory+UKIP = 45%, 44%, 44% in those three polls
    Lab+LDem = 47%, 47% and, er, 47%
    When you discount Others, does that equate to 52:48? ;)
    47:44 does (allowing for rounding)


  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.
    Which is why the referendum, if any, has to be May's Deal versus Remain. Both are immediately implementable.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    Maybe you should calm down?

    Many of your posts add little to this site except make it less pleasant for others.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    The last thing this process needs is leaks from Cable.

    That is not the way to go into good faith discussions. But we know from his period in government that he doesn't always respect such things.

    Everyone needs to knuckle down, work hard and keep schtum until there is something to say.
    'Cos we never get any leaks from the cabinet do we?
    I did say 'everyone'

    Running commentaries from anyone are unwelcome
    Nonsense. We love 'em!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    Barnesian said:

    I've crunched the latest three polls and it shows little change in the overall picture when the noise is factored out.

    Tories remain 0.7% ahead of Labour and 26 seats short of an overall majority.

    Con 38.5% Lab 37.8%, LD 9.0%
    Con 300 seats, Lab 271, LD 17, SNP 40, PC 3, Green 1.

    Labour can form a minority government with C&S from minor parties but the Tories can't, even with help from the DUP.

    Re those latest three polls. Just to reiterate (because it took me a deal of finger-counting to work out and I'd hate to see it wasted on a dead thread):

    Tory+UKIP = 45%, 44%, 44% in those three polls
    Lab+LDem = 47%, 47% and, er, 47%
    When you discount Others, does that equate to 52:48? ;)
    47:44 does (allowing for rounding)
    Spooky!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.
    You will probably decline to believe it but there should be no doubt that if Leave, e.g. May's Deal, were to win over Remain in a 2nd Referendum, parliament would vote to progress it.

    End of.
    What if people did not understand or the nasty russians were involved again? Most people advocating a referendum do so on the basis people have changed their minds, meaning they support remain. Those people can hardly be assumed to take being wrong again well. Happily for them I don't think they are wrong.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    Anazina said:

    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    It's not a PB meme, it's an internet thing, why pretend otherwise? One I don't engage in myself by the way. It's just that easy, just relax for christ's sake.
    ‘Internet’ shit, then. Somebody make it stop.
    You don't get to decide what other posters say and do.

    If you don't like it here, go somewhere else or get your own blog.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    dots said:

    RobD said:

    Can we deport this foreign born criminal?

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593

    It'd breach his human rights... :p
    It’s an absolutely fantastic photograph. 4 parts Clint Eastwood to 1 part mafia boss
    Indeed, you can almost see the speech bubble:

    "Get out of my way, you f&%king pleb paparazzi!"
    Phil did actually scream at a friend of mine whilst driving his team of horses through Windsor Park :

    "Get out of my FUCKING WAY!!"
    Blimey. Lucky you caught him on a good day, when he gives warnings.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914

    You'll have to ask the ERG & DUP.

    Why would they change their votes due to a referendum they will likely say is illegitimate?

    It seems to me that there's a fair chance we end up in essentially the same situation as we are in now. With a vote for which there is no majority in Parliament that is willing to honour it, only if we vote the "correct" way will a majority exist.

    Right now there's no majority for anything other than Remain/BINO in Parliament, and even a general election won't change that unless the composition of MPs returned is drastically different from now. We already know that legislation already passed and manifesto commitments mean very little.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Barnesian said:

    I've crunched the latest three polls and it shows little change in the overall picture when the noise is factored out.

    Tories remain 0.7% ahead of Labour and 26 seats short of an overall majority.

    Con 38.5% Lab 37.8%, LD 9.0%
    Con 300 seats, Lab 271, LD 17, SNP 40, PC 3, Green 1.

    Labour can form a minority government with C&S from minor parties but the Tories can't, even with help from the DUP.

    Re those latest three polls. Just to reiterate (because it took me a deal of finger-counting to work out and I'd hate to see it wasted on a dead thread):

    Tory+UKIP = 45%, 44%, 44% in those three polls
    Lab+LDem = 47%, 47% and, er, 47%
    When you discount Others, does that equate to 52:48? ;)
    47:44 does (allowing for rounding)
    Spooky!
    Only if you are easily spooked!
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    justin124 said:

    CON: 38% (+1)
    LAB: 37% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    UKIP: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    via @ComRes, 16 - 17 Jan

    Neck and neck methinks!

    I think Corbyn has made an error of Judgement not sitting down with May. He could have had a very short meeting, and said she was not serious. He provided the opportunity for his opponents to bring his past behaviour and apply it to the current situation
    Peter Oborne's article in the mail this morning is a perfect analysis of Corbyn missing a fabulous opportunity for labour. If you can souce the article is a good read and should be for all labour politicians and members if the party ever wants to get into government.
    An interesting read - Perhaps Corbyn will be shown to have a better strategy. It seems his current strategy is let the Tories take the hit for Brexit, then hope things go badly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Can we deport this foreign born criminal?

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593

    Are the Royals too miserly to employ a chauffeur??
    As I recall from the first season of The Crown before I fell asleep from boredom, getting to actually do things (in that case flying a plane, but perhaps as simple as driving a car) is something His Highness takes very seriously.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    Anazina said:

    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    Floater said:

    2nd class - like Labour

    Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.

    This rant makes it five posts.

    See what you have all done?
    It's not a PB meme, it's an internet thing, why pretend otherwise? One I don't engage in myself by the way. It's just that easy, just relax for christ's sake.
    ‘Internet’ shit, then. Somebody make it stop.
    You don't get to decide what other posters say and do.

    If you don't like it here, go somewhere else or get your own blog.
    Fifth. Like a column.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    Some people are able to see past more than the immediacy of stopping Brexit then, even if Grieve cares for nothing else.
  • Another day closer to the single currency
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    glw said:

    You'll have to ask the ERG & DUP.

    Why would they change their votes due to a referendum they will likely say is illegitimate?

    It seems to me that there's a fair chance we end up in essentially the same situation as we are in now. With a vote for which there is no majority in Parliament that is willing to honour it, only if we vote the "correct" way will a majority exist.

    Right now there's no majority for anything other than Remain/BINO in Parliament, and even a general election won't change that unless the composition of MPs returned is drastically different from now. We already know that legislation already passed and manifesto commitments mean very little.
    May could get the MV passed now 'subject to confirmation through a binding referendum' - i.e. if her Deal wins, she can just sign the WA treaty.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    kle4 said:

    What if people did not understand or the nasty russians were involved again? Most people advocating a referendum do so on the basis people have changed their minds, meaning they support remain. Those people can hardly be assumed to take being wrong again well. Happily for them I don't think they are wrong.

    I agree, but I'd like to see some thought about what happens if we vote "wrong" again. The 2nd referendum crowd are playing with fire, they need to think very carefully about what happens after the vote.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    Jonathan said:

    Good to see Starmer going for it.

    What’s he going for?

    Simply re-stating Labour policy really, that a second ref remains an option. Different emphasis from Corbyn, but that was also the case at Labour conference.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    Scott_P said:
    And this week's excuse for Jeremy to ensure "no deal" is "constitutional arson". OK, good to know. Thanks for playing Jeremy!

    Next week's episode: my mum said I was excused from voting because I have a condition.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.
    Which is why the referendum, if any, has to be May's Deal versus Remain. Both are immediately implementable.
    If that's your criteria no deal is immediately implementable too. Any referendum has to include all possible outcomes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,155
    edited January 2019

    justin124 said:

    CON: 38% (+1)
    LAB: 37% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    UKIP: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    via @ComRes, 16 - 17 Jan

    Neck and neck methinks!

    I think Corbyn has made an error of Judgement not sitting down with May. He could have had a very short meeting, and said she was not serious. He provided the opportunity for his opponents to bring his past behaviour and apply it to the current situation
    Peter Oborne's article in the mail this morning is a perfect analysis of Corbyn missing a fabulous opportunity for labour. If you can souce the article is a good read and should be for all labour politicians and members if the party ever wants to get into government.
    An interesting read - Perhaps Corbyn will be shown to have a better strategy. It seems his current strategy is let the Tories take the hit for Brexit, then hope things go badly.
    I am glad you read it and under any normal labour leader they could have taken the initiative instead of handing the batten to TM
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.
    Which is why the referendum, if any, has to be May's Deal versus Remain. Both are immediately implementable.
    If that's your criteria no deal is immediately implementable too. Any referendum has to include all possible outcomes.
    No deal isn't easily definable, let alone implementable. If it just means "cross the threshold without a withdrawal agreement", for how much longer is the government not allowed to do a deal with the EU? What about the implications for the union?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Presume there are various technical methods of estimating the total croud size?

    Average width of march x speed of march x diddly squat.
  • NeilVW said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good to see Starmer going for it.

    What’s he going for?

    Simply re-stating Labour policy really, that a second ref remains an option. Different emphasis from Corbyn, but that was also the case at Labour conference.
    While his labour mps in leave seats reject it 100%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    hts://twitter.com/rjmyers/status/1086745790075281410

    Even if the accident was his fault, plenty of people are in accidents and don't quit driving.
  • Presume there are various technical methods of estimating the total croud size?

    Average width of march x speed of march x diddly squat.
    My scientific method tells me there's 72 virgins in that picture.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited January 2019

    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.

    The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.

    Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.
    Which is why the referendum, if any, has to be May's Deal versus Remain. Both are immediately implementable.
    If that's your criteria no deal is immediately implementable too. Any referendum has to include all possible outcomes.
    No Deal is the absence of any arrangement of any kind, not just with the EU but with most third countries as well. It's not viable in any meaningful sense, which doesn't mean necessarily it won't happen. And no, referendums almost never include all possible outcomes. The point of this referendum if to say, this is the best and only deal the government has negotiated with the EU. Do you want to go ahead?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Presume there are various technical methods of estimating the total croud size?

    Average width of march x speed of march x diddly squat.
    My scientific method tells me there's 72 virgins in that picture.
    You including the trees to get to that number?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Does Putin have shares in High Vis vest manufacturing?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Note that the NumberCruncher poll is up to 9 days old and they say the recent sample was less favourable for the Tories:

    "The fieldwork was carried out both before and after the vote on the withdrawal agreement, in roughly equal proportions, allowing us to examine whether the event affected support for the Conservatives. Our modelling suggests a high probability that Tory support was higher in the days before the vote than after it, although it is harder to be precise about how large or durable any impact will prove to be."

    So like the other polls it basically means they're tied. But honestly it's a mug's game to get much out of the polls in the volatile situation. I think most people are just suspending judgment on Brexit and quoting their previous voting intention.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    ...No deal isn't easily definable, let alone implementable...

    On the contrary, it's very east to define. "To leave the European Union without a treaty signed and agreed by the UK Government and the European Council".

This discussion has been closed.