...No deal isn't easily definable, let alone implementable...
On the contrary, it's very east to define. "To leave the European Union without a treaty signed and agreed by the UK Government and the European Council".
And if on the following day you sign a treaty to solve all the problems it creates, have you betrayed the will of the people?
It looks to me as if May and Corbyn are both intent on running down the clock.
May's is a big bluff. "Back my deal or we crash out." I can't see her doing that or being allowed to do that. She could add a referendum condition to her deal at the last minute and get the numbers. She could revoke at the very last minute. She could concede on customs union and call Corbyn's bluff as well as getting the DUP on side. But any of these risks splitting the Tory party.
Corbyn (and a small group around him) on the other hand would like a crash out that could be blamed on the Tories. It would help him get an overall majority and be out of the restrictions of the EU on his policies. The last thing he wants is a get out for May - so no second referendum, extra conditions if a custom union is conceded etc. Don't speak to May. Introduce more VONCs. Run the clock out. But he risks splitting the Labour party.
I think we won't leave on 29th March. A50 will be extended (or just possibly revoked 10% chance). A cross party group of "adult" MPs may emerge under Grieve with Bercow's help to take control. I still think a referendum on May's deal or Remain is the best way forward. Or just revoke and be done with it. Most people want it sorted. Only about 5% would burst a blood vessel if we revoked.
Note that the NumberCruncher poll is up to 9 days old and they say the recent sample was less favourable for the Tories:
"The fieldwork was carried out both before and after the vote on the withdrawal agreement, in roughly equal proportions, allowing us to examine whether the event affected support for the Conservatives. Our modelling suggests a high probability that Tory support was higher in the days before the vote than after it, although it is harder to be precise about how large or durable any impact will prove to be."
So like the other polls it basically means they're tied. But honestly it's a mug's game to get much out of the polls in the volatile situation. I think most people are just suspending judgment on Brexit and quoting their previous voting intention.
Good evening Nick - did you read Caroline Flints article in the guardian today
Simply re-stating Labour policy really, that a second ref remains an option. Different emphasis from Corbyn, but that was also the case at Labour conference.
The Labour position appears to be dance on the head of a pin and try to only piss off a minimum of voters whilst avoiding tying themselves to a real position.
Mind you , even they admit their actual policy is bollocks......
...No deal isn't easily definable, let alone implementable...
On the contrary, it's very east to define. "To leave the European Union without a treaty signed and agreed by the UK Government and the European Council".
And if on the following day you sign a treaty to solve all the problems it creates, have you betrayed the will of the people?
The one thing that would betray the democratically expressed will of the people is not leaving the EU.
For heaven's sake, she's already said she won't fight the next election (assuming it is not a snap one) and does anyone think she wouldn't go very very soon if a deal or no deal happens, why are Brexiteers potentially going to be swayed by a promise to go even earlier? It's unforgivable. And essentially no progress has been made at all, because the Tories are still splitting no matter which way they try to go. Pathetic.
...No deal isn't easily definable, let alone implementable...
On the contrary, it's very east to define. "To leave the European Union without a treaty signed and agreed by the UK Government and the European Council".
And if on the following day you sign a treaty to solve all the problems it creates, have you betrayed the will of the people?
...No deal isn't easily definable, let alone implementable...
On the contrary, it's very east to define. "To leave the European Union without a treaty signed and agreed by the UK Government and the European Council".
And if on the following day you sign a treaty to solve all the problems it creates, have you betrayed the will of the people?
The one thing that would betray the democratically expressed will of the people is not leaving the EU.
We're talking about 'no deal' as an explicit referendum option. When would a deal become a betrayal, given that we can't avoid dealing with the EU?
What if people did not understand or the nasty russians were involved again? Most people advocating a referendum do so on the basis people have changed their minds, meaning they support remain. Those people can hardly be assumed to take being wrong again well. Happily for them I don't think they are wrong.
I agree, but I'd like to see some thought about what happens if we vote "wrong" again. The 2nd referendum crowd are playing with fire, they need to think very carefully about what happens after the vote.
As said elsewhere, if the Deal is passed subject to confirmatory referendum (as proposed by Cable), there's nothing left for Parliament to do. Referendum passes it and May can sign on the dotted line; her Brexit achieved. No further vote in Parliament. No tricks or votes available. Done.
So things are going well then. Good to see. What a relief!!
To be fair, that's a fairly sensible Plan B by May.
Sensible or not hardly matters if trying it causes Tory civil war and prevents anything anyway, which seems to be the case with any potential Plan B. The Tories, even in Cabinet, are ungovernable.
What if people did not understand or the nasty russians were involved again? Most people advocating a referendum do so on the basis people have changed their minds, meaning they support remain. Those people can hardly be assumed to take being wrong again well. Happily for them I don't think they are wrong.
I agree, but I'd like to see some thought about what happens if we vote "wrong" again. The 2nd referendum crowd are playing with fire, they need to think very carefully about what happens after the vote.
As said elsewhere, if the Deal is passed subject to confirmatory referendum (as proposed by Cable), there's nothing left for Parliament to do. Referendum passes it and May can sign on the dotted line; her Brexit achieved. No further vote in Parliament. No tricks or votes available. Done.
Exactly, either way a letter goes to Brussels and the matter is dealt with. Letter A contains the signed deal. Letter B contains the revocation of Article 50.
...No deal isn't easily definable, let alone implementable...
On the contrary, it's very east to define. "To leave the European Union without a treaty signed and agreed by the UK Government and the European Council".
And if on the following day you sign a treaty to solve all the problems it creates, have you betrayed the will of the people?
The one thing that would betray the democratically expressed will of the people is not leaving the EU.
We're talking about 'no deal' as an explicit referendum option. When would a deal become a betrayal, given that we can't avoid dealing with the EU?
Who said anything about a deal being a betrayal? The 2016 Referendum was about a choice between Leave and Remain. I'm not aware of any other options. All I'm saying is that a Referendum in 2019 cannot be between May's Deal and Remain because there are other options e.g, No Deal. You can whataboutery all you like.
Simply re-stating Labour policy really, that a second ref remains an option. Different emphasis from Corbyn, but that was also the case at Labour conference.
I haven’t yet seen all of Starmer speech to the Fabians, haven’t found it yet but in this age it must be on net somewhere. But of what I have seen, it’s unrepresentative headline to take from it, though predictable one for the media right now. Starmer speech and message actually v similar to the one Steve Bannon wrote for Bozzy Bear a few days ago.
Interesting the way post brexit battlefield is developing.
What if people did not understand or the nasty russians were involved again? Most people advocating a referendum do so on the basis people have changed their minds, meaning they support remain. Those people can hardly be assumed to take being wrong again well. Happily for them I don't think they are wrong.
I agree, but I'd like to see some thought about what happens if we vote "wrong" again. The 2nd referendum crowd are playing with fire, they need to think very carefully about what happens after the vote.
As said elsewhere, if the Deal is passed subject to confirmatory referendum (as proposed by Cable), there's nothing left for Parliament to do. Referendum passes it and May can sign on the dotted line; her Brexit achieved. No further vote in Parliament. No tricks or votes available. Done.
He may well have overplayed. The idea that Corbyn and McDonnell could support any motion that gives MPs power over the Government is surely for the birds.
Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.
This rant makes it five posts.
See what you have all done?
It's not a PB meme, it's an internet thing, why pretend otheerwise? One I don't engage in myself by the way. It's just that easy, just relax for christ's sake.
‘Internet’ shit, then. Somebody make it stop.
You don't get to decide what other posters say and do.
If you don't like it here, go somewhere else or get your own blog.
I hope Grieve gets thrown out the Conservative Party for his actions.
Grieve should be thrown out. He's overtly conspiring against a Tory led government and his hypocrisy given the manifesto on which he stood for election as a Tory MP is nauseating.
I hope Grieve gets thrown out the Conservative Party for his actions.
Grieve should be thrown out. He's overtly conspiring against a Tory led government and his hypocrisy given the manifesto on which he stood for election as a Tory MP is nauseating.
I'm sure he won't be, there's too many rebels to deal with, but no matter how Tory he may be he prioritises stopping Brexit by any means necessary over his party, he should not feel aggrieved, as it were, if they were to suspend him or something - his view of the national interest is very different to his party's official, albeit confused, stance.
Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.
This rant makes it five posts.
See what you have all done?
It's not a PB meme, it's an internet thing, why pretend otheerwise? One I don't engage in myself by the way. It's just that easy, just relax for christ's sake.
‘Internet’ shit, then. Somebody make it stop.
You don't get to decide what other posters say and do.
If you don't like it here, go somewhere else or get your own blog.
I hope Grieve gets thrown out the Conservative Party for his actions.
Grieve should be thrown out. He's overtly conspiring against a Tory led government and his hypocrisy given the manifesto on which he stood for election as a Tory MP is nauseating.
One thing he did say “what sort of democracy is it that doesn’t allow you to change your mind”.
Grieve should be thrown out. He's overtly conspiring against a Tory led government and his hypocrisy given the manifesto on which he stood for election as a Tory MP is nauseating.
Although conspiring against a Tory-led government is pretty much compulsory for Conservative MPs these days...
He may well have overplayed. The idea that Corbyn and McDonnell could support any motion that gives MPs power over the Government is surely for the birds.
It has been reported they will vote it down as it could be used to stop their own programmes
How much support does No Deal have according to opinion surveys?
40% think the UK should leave on 29th March, deal or no deal, which is a slightly different question. It includes those who prefer a deal in general but don't have a deal they like.
@BBCNewsPR Follow Follow @BBCNewsPR More We've reviewed what was said re polling on @bbcquestiontime. A YouGov poll published on the day of the programme suggested a lead for the Conservatives. Diane Abbott was also right that some other polls suggested Labour either as ahead or tied, & we should have made that clear.
I hope Grieve gets thrown out the Conservative Party for his actions.
Grieve should be thrown out. He's overtly conspiring against a Tory led government and his hypocrisy given the manifesto on which he stood for election as a Tory MP is nauseating.
One thing he did say “what sort of democracy is it that doesn’t allow you to change your mind”.
What do you make of that point?
I dont think Grieve agreed with the 2017 Tory manifesto on Brexit at any point. If he did, his "change of mind" is truly Damascene. No, he's a shocking hypocrite.
Simply re-stating Labour policy really, that a second ref remains an option. Different emphasis from Corbyn, but that was also the case at Labour conference.
I haven’t yet seen all of Starmer speech to the Fabians, haven’t found it yet but in this age it must be on net somewhere. But of what I have seen, it’s unrepresentative headline to take from it, though predictable one for the media right now. Starmer speech and message actually v similar to the one Steve Bannon wrote for Bozzy Bear a few days ago.
Interesting the way post brexit battlefield is developing.
How much support does No Deal have according to opinion surveys?
Surprisingly at 38% and as good as any other option
As I said earlier voters do not understand the details of the various deals but no deal attracts because of the perception we save £39 billion and give the EU a bloody nose
Grieve should be thrown out. He's overtly conspiring against a Tory led government and his hypocrisy given the manifesto on which he stood for election as a Tory MP is nauseating.
Although conspiring against a Tory-led government is pretty much compulsory for Conservative MPs these days...
Voting with conscience against a Tory led government is one thing. Grieve's actions go way beyond that.
That is fleshing out more detail from JRM 's comments I reported from the mail this morning
I think he's starting to sniff out he might just be giving cover for the defeat of Brexit and is looking for a way out.
It's probably too little too late though. A combination of no backstop, no £39bn and May going is pretty unlikely, and I'm not sure he can could put all of the ERG back in its box even if he wanted to.
Grieve should be thrown out. He's overtly conspiring against a Tory led government and his hypocrisy given the manifesto on which he stood for election as a Tory MP is nauseating.
Although conspiring against a Tory-led government is pretty much compulsory for Conservative MPs these days...
Voting with conscience against a Tory led government is one thing. Grieve's actions go way beyond that.
That is fleshing out more detail from JRM 's comments I reported from the mail this morning
I think he's starting to sniff out he might just be giving cover for the defeat of Brexit and is looking for a way out.
It's probably too little too late though. A combination of no backstop, no £39bn and May going is pretty unlikely, and I'm not sure he can could put all of the ERG back in its box even if he wanted to.
He said that if Brexit is threatened in any way he will back TM deal
The cult will still believe jezza is doing everything to stop brexit. I imagine even if a photo leaked of his ballot showing he votes leave they would claim it was all a hoax.
Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.
This rant makes it five posts.
See what you have all done?
It's not a PB meme, it's an internet thing, why pretend otheerwise? One I don't engage in myself by the way. It's just that easy, just relax for christ's sake.
‘Internet’ shit, then. Somebody make it stop.
You don't get to decide what other posters say and do.
If you don't like it here, go somewhere else or get your own blog.
He doesn't like memes (or rather, some common internet mannerisms that he calls memes) and people are teasing him about it.
Yes, I was trying to make the point that saying the same thing over and over again is dull. I’m now caught in the spam trapper so have appeared as yet another alter ego!
Sorry if I offended anyone. And sorry for my bad language!!
Worst PB meme ever! Four posts utterly wasted by this fucking inane, mundane, trite garbage.
This rant makes it five posts.
See what you have all done?
Maybe you should calm down?
Many of your posts add little to this site except make it less pleasant for others.
Fuck off!
I think somebody needs to go and calm down by watching a rerun of Radiohead live at Glastonbury, accompanied by a Hawaiian pizza and a glass of wine from a box....
He doesn't like memes (or rather, some common internet mannerisms that he calls memes) and people are teasing him about it.
Yes, I was trying to make the point that saying the same thing over and over again is dull. I’m now caught in the spam trapper so have appeared as yet another alter ego!
Sorry if I offended anyone. And sorry for my bad language!!
Good for you and I suppose welcome to our new poster is in order. All the best
Time Flies. Wonder where we will be in two years hence.
Jean Claude Junker appointed 'Commissar' of the fallen state of the disunited kingdom, which recently begged the benevolent European Union to take on all executive and legislative authority after the second year of Brexit wars.
For heaven's sake, she's already said she won't fight the next election (assuming it is not a snap one) and does anyone think she wouldn't go very very soon if a deal or no deal happens, why are Brexiteers potentially going to be swayed by a promise to go even earlier? It's unforgivable. And essentially no progress has been made at all, because the Tories are still splitting no matter which way they try to go. Pathetic.
Yes, I find it hard to see what’s changed here. Maybe I am missing something.
He doesn't like memes (or rather, some common internet mannerisms that he calls memes) and people are teasing him about it.
Yes, I was trying to make the point that saying the same thing over and over again is dull. I’m now caught in the spam trapper so have appeared as yet another alter ego!
Sorry if I offended anyone. And sorry for my bad language!!
That is fleshing out more detail from JRM 's comments I reported from the mail this morning
I think he's starting to sniff out he might just be giving cover for the defeat of Brexit and is looking for a way out.
It's probably too little too late though. A combination of no backstop, no £39bn and May going is pretty unlikely, and I'm not sure he can could put all of the ERG back in its box even if he wanted to.
He said that if Brexit is threatened in any way he will back TM deal
Funny, he didn't believe it was threatened before, why does he believe it now? Nothing has changed other than the MV, but the outcome to that was not a change really, since we knew it would happen.
That is fleshing out more detail from JRM 's comments I reported from the mail this morning
I think he's starting to sniff out he might just be giving cover for the defeat of Brexit and is looking for a way out.
It's probably too little too late though. A combination of no backstop, no £39bn and May going is pretty unlikely, and I'm not sure he can could put all of the ERG back in its box even if he wanted to.
He said that if Brexit is threatened in any way he will back TM deal
Funny, he didn't believe it was threatened before, why does he believe it now? Nothing has changed other than the MV, but the outcome to that was not a change really, since we knew it would happen.
My honest answer is I do not know but maybe reality is dawning over the wreckage of brexit
He doesn't like memes (or rather, some common internet mannerisms that he calls memes) and people are teasing him about it.
Yes, I was trying to make the point that saying the same thing over and over again is dull. I’m now caught in the spam trapper so have appeared as yet another alter ego!
Sorry if I offended anyone. And sorry for my bad language!!
He doesn't like memes (or rather, some common internet mannerisms that he calls memes) and people are teasing him about it.
Yes, I was trying to make the point that saying the same thing over and over again is dull. I’m now caught in the spam trapper so have appeared as yet another alter ego!
Sorry if I offended anyone. And sorry for my bad language!!
Good for you and I suppose welcome to our new poster is in order. All the best
Ha, thanks. I clearly went over the top and got snared in the spam mechanism.
Time Flies. Wonder where we will be in two years hence.
Jean Claude Junker appointed 'Commissar' of the fallen state of the disunited kingdom, which recently begged the benevolent European Union to take on all executive and legislative authority after the second year of Brexit wars.
Ex Pm and Strictly champion Theresa Du Beke to launch political comeback as leader of pro Euro party Nothing has Changed Movement.
Time Flies. Wonder where we will be in two years hence.
Jean Claude Junker appointed 'Commissar' of the fallen state of the disunited kingdom, which recently begged the benevolent European Union to take on all executive and legislative authority after the second year of Brexit wars.
Ex Pm and Strictly champion Theresa Du Beke to launch political comeback as leader of pro Euro party Nothing has Changed Movement.
Good evening Nick - did you read Caroline Flints article in the guardian today
No, I didn't, but after your prompt I have now - thanks.
Temperamentally I agree with it - jaw-jaw is better than war-war in moments of crisis. But I don't think we can negotiate on the basis of the May deal being unchangeable (including the future political agreement, i.e. the customs union etc.). If TM is serious about negotiating she needs to agree that all options that avoid No Deal will be explored.
The cult will still believe jezza is doing everything to stop brexit. I imagine even if a photo leaked of his ballot showing he votes leave they would claim it was all a hoax.
That is the tragedy of the situation. Apart from a handful of northern lefties, most of the Corbynistas are europhile poshos based down here. Yet, they are willfully blind to Corbo’s nefarious acts.
I did notice when Grieve was on Newsnight in the week he seemed less sure of himself than usual.
When they kept trying to pin him down on stopping "No Deal" and Parliament forcing a second referendum he seemed to be coming out with a load waffle but little substance...
Good evening Nick - did you read Caroline Flints article in the guardian today
No, I didn't, but after your prompt I have now - thanks.
Temperamentally I agree with it - jaw-jaw is better than war-war in moments of crisis. But I don't think we can negotiate on the basis of the May deal being unchangeable (including the future political agreement, i.e. the customs union etc.). If TM is serious about negotiating she needs to agree that all options that avoid No Deal will be explored.
To be honest that is her aim and I do not expect her to allow no deal in the end.
But right now, and for the next several weeks, it is the only real outcome to concentrate EU minds
The speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, is considering abandoning his plans to step down this summer after cabinet ministers threatened to deny him a peerage because of his alleged “bias” against the government over Brexit.
Good evening Nick - did you read Caroline Flints article in the guardian today
No, I didn't, but after your prompt I have now - thanks.
Temperamentally I agree with it - jaw-jaw is better than war-war in moments of crisis. But I don't think we can negotiate on the basis of the May deal being unchangeable (including the future political agreement, i.e. the customs union etc.). If TM is serious about negotiating she needs to agree that all options that avoid No Deal will be explored.
I haven’t read her piece but your point about negotiation is spot on. I was speaking to a work friend, a client, last week. I said, “In what sort of negotiation do you go in point-blank refusing to give any ground?” Negotiation is about give and take. Some concession is almost always necessary to get a deal.
Time Flies. Wonder where we will be in two years hence.
Jean Claude Junker appointed 'Commissar' of the fallen state of the disunited kingdom, which recently begged the benevolent European Union to take on all executive and legislative authority after the second year of Brexit wars.
Look at Putin's boast top right.
Seriously....... They used to claim their military was world beating.
Cabinet ministers involved in cross-party talks on how to break the Brexit deadlock have given the first indication that they are prepared to examine plans for a potential second referendum on the UK’s departure from the EU, according to the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable.
The offer to examine a possible timetable for a second vote drawn up by the Lib Dems was made during discussions between senior Liberal Democrats and two cabinet ministers involved in the talks, Michael Gove and David Lidington, in the Cabinet Office on Thursday morning.
Are any of the advocates considering the Doomsday scenario of what happens if/when Leave wins again? Unless Parliament is willing to carry out any outcome of the various proposed referendum questions there really is no point in calling another. If Parliament refused to go through with Leave after a 2nd referendum that would be the end of any pretence that we are a democracy, and God knows that idea is already wearing thin.
Also “offered to examine the timetable” sounds like “filed in the circular filing cabinet”
The speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, is considering abandoning his plans to step down this summer after cabinet ministers threatened to deny him a peerage because of his alleged “bias” against the government over Brexit.
He ain’t ever going to leave.
It's not going to end well for him.
As soon as Brexit is resolved one way or another Labour will want him out IMO. When Labour decide enough is enough it'll be over.
The speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, is considering abandoning his plans to step down this summer after cabinet ministers threatened to deny him a peerage because of his alleged “bias” against the government over Brexit.
He ain’t ever going to leave.
Amazing how some bullies seem to avoid their due punishment.
If they stuck to the line that until the bullying allegations are properly investigated, there can be no consideration given to a post-Speakership honour, that might focus a few minds...
Good evening Nick - did you read Caroline Flints article in the guardian today
No, I didn't, but after your prompt I have now - thanks.
Temperamentally I agree with it - jaw-jaw is better than war-war in moments of crisis. But I don't think we can negotiate on the basis of the May deal being unchangeable (including the future political agreement, i.e. the customs union etc.). If TM is serious about negotiating she needs to agree that all options that avoid No Deal will be explored.
I haven’t read her piece but your point about negotiation is spot on. I was speaking to a work friend, a client, last week. I said, “In what sort of negotiation do you go in point-blank refusing to give any ground?” Negotiation is about give and take. Some concession is almost always necessary to get a deal.
You obviously weren’t talking to Nancy pelosi.....
Pelosi rejects Trump shutdown deal before president announces it
It is normally a good idea to wait for the person to at least tell you what the deal is before you do an Eric cartman.
Simply re-stating Labour policy really, that a second ref remains an option. Different emphasis from Corbyn, but that was also the case at Labour conference.
I haven’t yet seen all of Starmer speech to the Fabians, haven’t found it yet but in this age it must be on net somewhere. But of what I have seen, it’s unrepresentative headline to take from it, though predictable one for the media right now. Starmer speech and message actually v similar to the one Steve Bannon wrote for Bozzy Bear a few days ago.
Interesting the way post brexit battlefield is developing.
I was wrong. 😒. Precious little post Brexit Battleground compared to Bozzy Bears speech.
the debate on Brexit has too often been narrow and process-driven. Endless discussion about parliamentary process and the institutions of the EU but little on how we tackle the causes of the referendum result. The need to tackle inequality, low pay, a broken housing market and the growing dislocation between our political system and the people who elect us.
From this point the rest of it is just him droning on about brexit process, narrow to what he claims is Labour Policy.
Conclusion - Tories can steal a march on opposition here.
So May’s Plan B includes the idea of a bilateral treaty with Ireland to guarantee no hard border and therefore obviate the backstop, according to the Sunday Times. Not a lot of detail.
Good evening Nick - did you read Caroline Flints article in the guardian today
No, I didn't, but after your prompt I have now - thanks.
Temperamentally I agree with it - jaw-jaw is better than war-war in moments of crisis. But I don't think we can negotiate on the basis of the May deal being unchangeable (including the future political agreement, i.e. the customs union etc.). If TM is serious about negotiating she needs to agree that all options that avoid No Deal will be explored.
To be honest that is her aim and I do not expect her to allow no deal in the end.
But right now, and for the next several weeks, it is the only real outcome to concentrate EU minds
If TM resigns in May after she manages to get her deal through with some compromise from the EU / Ireland to pacify DUP and ERG what’s to stop the next Tory leader (probably a leaver) from falling out with EU over future trade deal and cancelling WA and going WTO until EU come to table with a worthwhile offer
The speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, is considering abandoning his plans to step down this summer after cabinet ministers threatened to deny him a peerage because of his alleged “bias” against the government over Brexit.
He ain’t ever going to leave.
I think he is a good speaker. Witty and commanding. I still don’t see why he is so loathed. I understand there are various allegations about him however so will reserve judgment.
Good evening Nick - did you read Caroline Flints article in the guardian today
No, I didn't, but after your prompt I have now - thanks.
Temperamentally I agree with it - jaw-jaw is better than war-war in moments of crisis. But I don't think we can negotiate on the basis of the May deal being unchangeable (including the future political agreement, i.e. the customs union etc.). If TM is serious about negotiating she needs to agree that all options that avoid No Deal will be explored.
I haven’t read her piece but your point about negotiation is spot on. I was speaking to a work friend, a client, last week. I said, “In what sort of negotiation do you go in point-blank refusing to give any ground?” Negotiation is about give and take. Some concession is almost always necessary to get a deal.
You obviously weren’t talking to Nancy pelosi.....
Pelosi rejects Trump shutdown deal before president announces it
It is normally a good idea to wait for the person to at least tell you what the deal is before you do an Eric cartman.
Yes I agree with that. She should speak to him of course.
So May’s Plan B includes the idea of a bilateral treaty with Ireland to guarantee no hard border and therefore obviate the backstop, according to the Sunday Times. Not a lot of detail.
Good evening Nick - did you read Caroline Flints article in the guardian today
No, I didn't, but after your prompt I have now - thanks.
Temperamentally I agree with it - jaw-jaw is better than war-war in moments of crisis. But I don't think we can negotiate on the basis of the May deal being unchangeable (including the future political agreement, i.e. the customs union etc.). If TM is serious about negotiating she needs to agree that all options that avoid No Deal will be explored.
To be honest that is her aim and I do not expect her to allow no deal in the end.
But right now, and for the next several weeks, it is the only real outcome to concentrate EU minds
If TM resigns in May after she manages to get her deal through with some compromise from the EU / Ireland to pacify DUP and ERG what’s to stop the next Tory leader (probably a leaver) from falling out with EU over future trade deal and cancelling WA and going WTO until EU come to table with a worthwhile offer
Presumably nothing, but pulling out of an agreement already signed is surely harder than resisting signing it in the first place. The EU would also presumably be livid at such a move and be far from inclined to come back to the table. One reason people have resisted the WA so much is because they fear it will set the future direction too much, I think it is fair to think if it ever does get agreed it will proceed.
I never thought May would last much beyond March, assuming a deal could be agreed, and it'd be reasonable for her to stand aside and let someone else try to handle the next phase. That leader will probably be destroyed by that next phase too, but Brexit is rough like that.
Good evening Nick - did you read Caroline Flints article in the guardian today
No, I didn't, but after your prompt I have now - thanks.
Temperamentally I agree with it - jaw-jaw is better than war-war in moments of crisis. But I don't think we can negotiate on the basis of the May deal being unchangeable (including the future political agreement, i.e. the customs union etc.). If TM is serious about negotiating she needs to agree that all options that avoid No Deal will be explored.
To be honest that is her aim and I do not expect her to allow no deal in the end.
But right now, and for the next several weeks, it is the only real outcome to concentrate EU minds
If TM resigns in May after she manages to get her deal through with some compromise from the EU / Ireland to pacify DUP and ERG what’s to stop the next Tory leader (probably a leaver) from falling out with EU over future trade deal and cancelling WA and going WTO until EU come to table with a worthwhile offer
I think it is quite possible but not while the WDA is in force as it is an international treaty
I hope Grieve gets thrown out the Conservative Party for his actions.
Grieve should be thrown out. He's overtly conspiring against a Tory led government and his hypocrisy given the manifesto on which he stood for election as a Tory MP is nauseating.
One thing he did say “what sort of democracy is it that doesn’t allow you to change your mind”.
What do you make of that point?
I dont think Grieve agreed with the 2017 Tory manifesto on Brexit at any point. If he did, his "change of mind" is truly Damascene. No, he's a shocking hypocrite.
At least I think Paul had an excuse. Did he not tell the Romans he was on drugs?
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May's is a big bluff. "Back my deal or we crash out." I can't see her doing that or being allowed to do that. She could add a referendum condition to her deal at the last minute and get the numbers. She could revoke at the very last minute. She could concede on customs union and call Corbyn's bluff as well as getting the DUP on side. But any of these risks splitting the Tory party.
Corbyn (and a small group around him) on the other hand would like a crash out that could be blamed on the Tories. It would help him get an overall majority and be out of the restrictions of the EU on his policies. The last thing he wants is a get out for May - so no second referendum, extra conditions if a custom union is conceded etc. Don't speak to May. Introduce more VONCs. Run the clock out. But he risks splitting the Labour party.
I think we won't leave on 29th March. A50 will be extended (or just possibly revoked 10% chance). A cross party group of "adult" MPs may emerge under Grieve with Bercow's help to take control. I still think a referendum on May's deal or Remain is the best way forward. Or just revoke and be done with it. Most people want it sorted. Only about 5% would burst a blood vessel if we revoked.
Mind you , even they admit their actual policy is bollocks......
I love Tim Shipman. He's fair and objective and always gets to the bottom of what's really going on.
Referendum passes it and May can sign on the dotted line; her Brexit achieved.
No further vote in Parliament. No tricks or votes available. Done.
We shall see.
Interesting the way post brexit battlefield is developing.
What do you make of that point?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/19/uk-voters-would-back-remain-in-eu-over-theresa-may-brexit-deal
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We've reviewed what was said re polling on @bbcquestiontime. A YouGov poll published on the day of the programme suggested a lead for the Conservatives. Diane Abbott was also right that some other polls suggested Labour either as ahead or tied, & we should have made that clear.
For your delectation.
As I said earlier voters do not understand the details of the various deals but no deal attracts because of the perception we save £39 billion and give the EU a bloody nose
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 40% (+1)
CON: 37% (-2)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
UKIP: 7% (+1)
via @OpiniumResearch, 16 - 18 Jan
Chgs. w/ Dec
Of course if she gets those on board she is virtually there with approx 110 votes
It's probably too little too late though. A combination of no backstop, no £39bn and May going is pretty unlikely, and I'm not sure he can could put all of the ERG back in its box even if he wanted to.
Time Flies. Wonder where we will be in two years hence.
Sorry if I offended anyone. And sorry for my bad language!!
Temperamentally I agree with it - jaw-jaw is better than war-war in moments of crisis. But I don't think we can negotiate on the basis of the May deal being unchangeable (including the future political agreement, i.e. the customs union etc.). If TM is serious about negotiating she needs to agree that all options that avoid No Deal will be explored.
It’s not nice to tell people to “go away” in that tone
When they kept trying to pin him down on stopping "No Deal" and Parliament forcing a second referendum he seemed to be coming out with a load waffle but little substance...
But right now, and for the next several weeks, it is the only real outcome to concentrate EU minds
The speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, is considering abandoning his plans to step down this summer after cabinet ministers threatened to deny him a peerage because of his alleged “bias” against the government over Brexit.
He ain’t ever going to leave.
Seriously....... They used to claim their military was world beating.
As soon as Brexit is resolved one way or another Labour will want him out IMO. When Labour decide enough is enough it'll be over.
If they stuck to the line that until the bullying allegations are properly investigated, there can be no consideration given to a post-Speakership honour, that might focus a few minds...
Pelosi rejects Trump shutdown deal before president announces it
It is normally a good idea to wait for the person to at least tell you what the deal is before you do an Eric cartman.
I was wrong. 😒. Precious little post Brexit Battleground compared to Bozzy Bears speech.
the debate on Brexit has too often been narrow and process-driven. Endless discussion about parliamentary process and the institutions of the EU but little on how we tackle the causes of the referendum result. The need to tackle inequality, low pay, a broken housing market and the growing dislocation between our political system and the people who elect us.
From this point the rest of it is just him droning on about brexit process, narrow to what he claims is Labour Policy.
Conclusion - Tories can steal a march on opposition here.
This was one poll that came out tonight, quite amusing really in a black humour sense:
I think he is a good speaker. Witty and commanding. I still don’t see why he is so loathed. I understand there are various allegations about him however so will reserve judgment. Yes I agree with that. She should speak to him of course.
But, as any ful knows, the Monarch (and by extension the Consort) never apologise.
I never thought May would last much beyond March, assuming a deal could be agreed, and it'd be reasonable for her to stand aside and let someone else try to handle the next phase. That leader will probably be destroyed by that next phase too, but Brexit is rough like that.