politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Deal or no deal. Plus are th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Deal or no deal. Plus are the Tories really ahead in the polls?
On this week’s podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the fallout from a hectic week in Westminster. They ask whether a General Election, 2nd referendum or ‘no deal Brexit’ have become more or less likely and explain why politicians claiming that the Tories are ahead in the polls are not telling the full story.
Comments
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Second is the new first.0
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Second, like Jezza0
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I refuse to join the thread unless the first by TSE is removed...0
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Let's have another go...TheScreamingEagles said:Oh go on, I'll be first.
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I've removed it.Scott_P said:I refuse to join the thread unless the first by TSE is removed...
I'll call reinstate it later.0 -
I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.0
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Typical Remainer, always wants to revoke somat!Scott_P said:I refuse to join the thread unless the first by TSE is removed...
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I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.kle4 said:I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.
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I won't mock it. I just think particularly after all that has gone down it is not good for either of us to remain, not least since if we showed the slightest reticence to do what the EU by and large wanted - which we would, since we'd have millions of fuming people at us having remained - Germany and the others would return to leaking about how frustrated they are by the brits, how the brits don't understand how things are done, that the brits aren't playing ball.Anazina said:Scott_P said:
Germany’s love letter to Britain up top is hackneyed but sweet. Of course, the raging europhobes on here will mock it, as they turn their backs.
I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.0 -
Establishment fix up!TheScreamingEagles said:
I've removed it.Scott_P said:I refuse to join the thread unless the first by TSE is removed...
I'll call reinstate it later.0 -
Anyone who pays the slightest attention to opinion polls amid this fucking chaos has taken leave of their tiny mind.0
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Why oh why did Mrs May give the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox such a key Brexit job?
Dr Fox's predictions on how easy Brexit would be is up there with the plan for an Anglo-German trade deal post Brexit by David Davis.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/10860218906055024660 -
Remember, there was plenty of discomfort when Davis, Fox and BoJo were appointed.TheScreamingEagles said:Why oh why did Mrs May give the disgraced national security risk such a key Brexit job?
Dr Fox's predictions on how easy Brexit would be is up there with the plan for an Anglo-German trade deal post Brexit by David Davis.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/10860218906055024660 -
But would Labour have the same problem ? In 2017 they could fudge it and avoid the topic to a large extent, I suspect they wouldn't get away with this trick againTheScreamingEagles said:
I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.kle4 said:I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.
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Amusing start - things are gathering pace, while also being at an impasse!0
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Kinda proves the idiocy of some Leavers that only a Brexiteer should have succeeded David Cameron.kle4 said:
Remember, there was plenty of discomfort when Davis, Fox and BoJo were appointed.TheScreamingEagles said:Why oh why did Mrs May give the disgraced national security risk such a key Brexit job?
Dr Fox's predictions on how easy Brexit would be is up there with the plan for an Anglo-German trade deal post Brexit by David Davis.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/10860218906055024660 -
That image haunts me.0
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As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?kle4 said:I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
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It would probably be like one of those strange elections in the 1920's. Huge swings all over the place at constituency level.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.kle4 said:I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.
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T
I travel and do business with Germans, French, Spanish and Austrians. I can tell you that everyone I have spoken to thinks it a tragic split. They are right.kle4 said:
I won't mock it. I just think particularly after all that has gone down it is not good for either of us to remain, not least since if we showed the slightest reticence to do what the EU by and large wanted - which we would, since we'd have millions of fuming people at us having remained - Germany and the others would return to leaking about how frustrated they are by the brits, how the brits don't understand how things are done, that the brits aren't playing ball.Anazina said:Scott_P said:
Germany’s love letter to Britain up top is hackneyed but sweet. Of course, the raging europhobes on here will mock it, as they turn their backs.
I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.0 -
I don't necessarily think that. But I think it would be worse for them from now on, and has not been as good as they would have liked recently, because we are, as they continually moaned, obstructive and difficult. If we stay they'll only complain more once the euphoria wears off.williamglenn said:
As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?kle4 said:I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
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The difference is that in 2017 May was still largely an unknown quantity as PM. Now people have seem plenty of proof that she's a maddeningly difficult woman who nonetheless has enormous reserves of stamina and tenacity. I don't think her ratings would be as vulnerable a second time unless she does something stupid.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.kle4 said:I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.
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Scotland since 2015 then?Sean_F said:
It would probably be like one of those strange elections in the 1920's. Huge swings all over the place at constituency level.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.kle4 said:I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.
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They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.williamglenn said:
As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?kle4 said:I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
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Doesn't that depend on the assumption that the UK will not have been profoundly changed by the experience of the last few years?kle4 said:
I don't necessarily think that. But I think it would be worse for them from now on, and has not been as good as they would have liked recently, because we are, as they continually moaned, obstructive and difficult. If we stay they'll only complain more once the euphoria wears off.williamglenn said:
As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?kle4 said:I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
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I think any putative election would be determined more by the circumstances than any positive feelings about either party, which polls show to be at a remarkably low level. (They also show a notable enthusiasm for political realignment, which simply isn’t on offer.)kle4 said:I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.
The Tories would quite likely get caned if we end up remaining, and Labour similarly, should we Brexit without Labour having supported a second referendum.
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Utter rubbish.Sean_F said:
They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.williamglenn said:
As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?kle4 said:I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
Get out more.0 -
I have come to join the Citizen's Assembly..am I too late?0
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If the UK had not been a member, would joining the EU have seemed such a self-evident step for the post-communist countries?Sean_F said:
They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.williamglenn said:
As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?kle4 said:I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
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That'll teach the SKY graphics team - having UKIP and the LibDems there, but not the power-broking DUP.....0
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I disagree - I think you are perhaps projecting.Sean_F said:
They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.williamglenn said:
As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?kle4 said:I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
And they probably wouldn’t have the Single Market.
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Which did you bring - pitchfork, or burning brand?FrancisUrquhart said:I have come to join the Citizen's Assembly..am I too late?
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Well as a certain person once said, nothing has changed. Many people seem to have found the european fervour that was not very obvious before, but we'll still be a country where millions upon millions wanted out, many of them even if it meant no deal, they have hardened in their opposition in fact. The remainer forces will probably be successful, but they have to bear in mind what that large group will do, most of them will not take the view that we should be in all the way now.williamglenn said:
Doesn't that depend on the assumption that the UK will not have been profoundly changed by the experience of the last few years?kle4 said:
I don't necessarily think that. But I think it would be worse for them from now on, and has not been as good as they would have liked recently, because we are, as they continually moaned, obstructive and difficult. If we stay they'll only complain more once the euphoria wears off.williamglenn said:
As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?kle4 said:I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
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"... unless she does something stupid, again."williamglenn said:
The difference is that in 2017 May was still largely an unknown quantity as PM. Now people have seem plenty of proof that she's a maddeningly difficult woman who nonetheless has enormous reserves of stamina and tenacity. I don't think her ratings would be as vulnerable a second time unless she does something stupid.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.kle4 said:I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.
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First topic, pineapple on pizza.FrancisUrquhart said:I have come to join the Citizen's Assembly..am I too late?
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I think only people who have passed a Citizenship test should be allowed to be part of the Assembly, they're the only ones who've proved their citizen credentials sufficiently.FrancisUrquhart said:I have come to join the Citizen's Assembly..am I too late?
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Neither, but I have brought a left over bottle of Nyetimber from Christmas...MarqueeMark said:
Which did you bring - pitchfork, or burning brand?FrancisUrquhart said:I have come to join the Citizen's Assembly..am I too late?
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No, they were and are happy to put up with our mutterings so long as we are there to pay for their bills and to buy their exports.Sean_F said:
They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.williamglenn said:
As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?kle4 said:I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
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Please explain.Anazina said:
Utter rubbish.Sean_F said:
They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.williamglenn said:
As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?kle4 said:I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
Get out more.
They would not have had us demanding a Rebate, complaining about Maastricht, and Lisbon, demanding opt outs, electing UKIP MEP's etc. Why is that not good from their point of view?0 -
Quite likely.Sean_F said:
It would probably be like one of those strange elections in the 1920's. Huge swings all over the place at constituency level.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.kle4 said:I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.
If No Deal is as bad as many fear then I'd expect to see huge swings against those MPs who said No Deal/WTO would be awesome.
22% swing against JRM in North East Somerset, you heard it here first.0 -
With May or without May?Scott_P said:0 -
Splits can be tragic and still sometimes for the best. They don't want it but should recognise it is not working with us in. They certainly would have no intention of mollycoddling us, as they see it, and would treat with contempt any bitterness we might display, any reticence for the grand project. So being sad about the outcome doesn't mean that it is not a better outcome.Anazina said:T
I travel and do business with Germans, French, Spanish and Austrians. I can tell you that everyone I have spoken to thinks it a tragic split. They are right.kle4 said:
I won't mock it. I just think particularly after all that has gone down it is not good for either of us to remain, not least since if we showed the slightest reticence to do what the EU by and large wanted - which we would, since we'd have millions of fuming people at us having remained - Germany and the others would return to leaking about how frustrated they are by the brits, how the brits don't understand how things are done, that the brits aren't playing ball.Anazina said:Scott_P said:
Germany’s love letter to Britain up top is hackneyed but sweet. Of course, the raging europhobes on here will mock it, as they turn their backs.
I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
And I'd point out that some remainer fans on PB have in the past been keen to point out that in their experience the EU cannot wait to get rid of us, they already no longer care. I object to that on the basis that the EU would be fools to not care what a very large nation on their doorstep does.0 -
I’m honestly now envisaging the following: extension of A50 and some kind of coalition of the sensible. If that happens we might just get through this relatively unscathed, and Liam, DD, Boris etc. need never trouble our waking hours again.TheScreamingEagles said:Why oh why did Mrs May give the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox such a key Brexit job?
Dr Fox's predictions on how easy Brexit would be is up there with the plan for an Anglo-German trade deal post Brexit by David Davis.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1086021890605502466
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She’s a moron and has no ability to assess people.TheScreamingEagles said:Why oh why did Mrs May give the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox such a key Brexit job?
Dr Fox's predictions on how easy Brexit would be is up there with the plan for an Anglo-German trade deal post Brexit by David Davis.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1086021890605502466
The more I’ve seen of her in the last few months the less I like her. She seems to me to be dishonest, authoritarian, a bit of a bully and pointlessly stubborn. It’s not admirable tenacity but an unimaginative stubbornness and a refusal to take account of changed circumstances.williamglenn said:
The difference is that in 2017 May was still largely an unknown quantity as PM. Now people have seem plenty of proof that she's a maddeningly difficult woman who nonetheless has enormous reserves of stamina and tenacity. I don't think her ratings would be as vulnerable a second time unless she does something stupid.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.kle4 said:I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.
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Scott_P said:
The word "prepare" covers quite a spectrum of implications there. It's probably normal they start doing that in any heavily deadlocked situation like we have at present.0 -
Who might make up this coalition of the sensible? Extension is just a stepping stone to remain, which people are not brave enough to admit to yet.Stark_Dawning said:
I’m honestly now envisaging the following: extension of A50 and some kind of coalition of the sensible. If that happens we might just get through this relatively unscathed, and Liam, DD, Boris etc. need never trouble our waking hours again.TheScreamingEagles said:Why oh why did Mrs May give the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox such a key Brexit job?
Dr Fox's predictions on how easy Brexit would be is up there with the plan for an Anglo-German trade deal post Brexit by David Davis.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/10860218906055024660 -
I think that fear of Russia would have pushed them in the EU's direction.williamglenn said:
If the UK had not been a member, would joining the EU have seemed such a self-evident step for the post-communist countries?Sean_F said:
They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.williamglenn said:
As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?kle4 said:I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
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BBCQT back to its usual poor standard.0
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And without France they wouldn't have Le Pen in the European parliament, votes against the constitution, etc. We're not the only country with domestic politics.Sean_F said:
Please explain.Anazina said:
Utter rubbish.Sean_F said:
They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.williamglenn said:
As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?kle4 said:I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
Get out more.
They would not have had us demanding a Rebate, complaining about Maastricht, and Lisbon, demanding opt outs, electing UKIP MEP's etc. Why is that not good from their point of view?0 -
It should have been taken out the back and shot years ago.Foxy said:BBCQT back to its usual poor standard.
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My view is that De Gaulle was correct to veto our application, and was doing us a favour, had we only seen it.Nigelb said:
I disagree - I think you are perhaps projecting.Sean_F said:
They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.williamglenn said:
As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?kle4 said:I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
And they probably wouldn’t have the Single Market.0 -
Hard to argue with Leo's view that its far better, from Corbyn's perspective, to wind down the clock. What I am curious about is whether parliament can stop anyone winding down the clock. They are all over the place on it, with wanting to take things off the table and make decisions now, but also large numbers who want an extension for almost no reason other than to avoid a decision they know is coming.0
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I cannot think of any better reason for being members of the EU than the French didn't want us to be members.Sean_F said:
My view is that De Gaulle was correct to veto our application, and was doing us a favour, had we only seen it.Nigelb said:
I disagree - I think you are perhaps projecting.Sean_F said:
They would have been much happier, without us, IMHO.williamglenn said:
As a counterfactual, how do you think the last 45 years would have been better for the other 27 countries currently in the EU if the UK had been outside?kle4 said:I don't doubt the sincerity of many in the EU for us to remain, but I think if they stopped to think about it a bit more they'd see that it's better for the project if we are not part of them.
And they probably wouldn’t have the Single Market.0 -
If only the civil service had been told to prepare for no deal Brexit......FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Does it burn?FrancisUrquhart said:
Neither, but I have brought a left over bottle of Nyetimber from Christmas...MarqueeMark said:
Which did you bring - pitchfork, or burning brand?FrancisUrquhart said:I have come to join the Citizen's Assembly..am I too late?
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https://unherd.com/2019/01/how-british-politics-is-failing/
This article is fascinating. I can’t decide who is in a better position. The Tories who will likely be rid of May soon but have little talent in the rank below, or Labour who will have more problem getting rid of Corbyn, who have better potential replacements, but who would likely pick a numpty.0 -
On the contrary - it fairly reflects the bollocksed state of public discourse.Foxy said:BBCQT back to its usual poor standard.
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Biggest laugh again reserved for Labour policy on Brexit...0
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Easy way to avoid that. Well, there had been.Scott_P said:0 -
Quite. And these are the people Cameron thought could reverently, discreetly, advisedly, soberly decide our future for decades to come.Scott_P said:0 -
Now about that second referendum...Scott_P said:0 -
And Grayling too, please God.Stark_Dawning said:
I’m honestly now envisaging the following: extension of A50 and some kind of coalition of the sensible. If that happens we might just get through this relatively unscathed, and Liam, DD, Boris etc. need never trouble our waking hours again.TheScreamingEagles said:Why oh why did Mrs May give the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox such a key Brexit job?
Dr Fox's predictions on how easy Brexit would be is up there with the plan for an Anglo-German trade deal post Brexit by David Davis.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1086021890605502466
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A couple of minutes ago, disapproval ratings for Trump just hit 55% (with 40.2% in favour), the highest level since Feb 2018.Scott_P said:And another epic self-own...
https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/10860379616810926080 -
Yes and then the the sensible adults make the decisions - there's the difference.kle4 said:0 -
You're not in favour a second referendum then I take it?Chris_A said:
Yes and then the the sensible adults make the decisions - there's the difference.kle4 said:0 -
No I wouldn't be, but it's the only way out of the impasse unless we have a general election with Labour committed to revoking Article 50. I've never voted Labour in my life but by God if they did I'd be out leafleting for them with every spare moment I've got.kle4 said:
You're not in favour a second referendum then I take it?Chris_A said:
Yes and then the the sensible adults make the decisions - there's the difference.kle4 said:0 -
"The world is bigger than YouGov" the killer quote.0
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What if we had a General Election and NOBODY VOTED........?0
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What the voters? Whether or not one supports referenda in general the notion that the voters shouldn't be able to determine our future is just as much to blame for where we are.Chris_A said:
Quite. And these are the people Cameron thought could reverently, discreetly, advisedly, soberly decide our future for decades to come.Scott_P said:0 -
Who are these "sensible adults?" The moderate, rational, intelligent people gave us the Iraq war and the Banking crisis. Populists may be offering snake oil, but the voters see centrists as self -serving, corrupt, inept, and arrogant.Chris_A said:
Yes and then the the sensible adults make the decisions - there's the difference.kle4 said:0 -
Lord of the Flies, I recall from my English classes, ended that way too.Scott_P said:
Does anyone ever read that book, except at school?0 -
But of course, Sean. That was back in the good old days, when all Conservatives thought exactly the same as their leaders - and they all thought the same among themselves. Moreover, the Conservative leaders then were all in favour of the EU.Sean_F said:
Now they all want to leave the EU, so that Mr Corbyn is free to create a Socialist Paradise.
Conservatives are very strange creatures. There is no making head or tail of them.0 -
Also seems to be the SNP line.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/10860415001763430400 -
How many current Tory votes for the deal does she lose if that is the case?Scott_P said:
Not saying it is an unreasonable demand from the LD perspective - frankly I think it's May's only hope of her deal going through as well - but trying to figure out the maths of this, the LDs can be countered pretty quickly if more Tories defect.0 -
That is interesting.Scott_P said:
Polling clearly shows that very few indeed want a general election, whereas they tend to show the public favouring a second referendum (though not definiteively so).
Labour voters very clearly back a second referendum. Their front bench not so much.
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Don't forget this little snippetAndrew said:Scott_P said:
The word "prepare" covers quite a spectrum of implications there. It's probably normal they start doing that in any heavily deadlocked situation like we have at present.
https://order-order.com/2019/01/16/election-alert-tories-open-candidate-selections-swathes-seats/0 -
I think that is right. There would be all manner of spoiler candidates -- Independent Brexiteers against Grieve & Boles, surely Bercow will not be given a free ride in Buckingham, Labour Remainers in Leave seats will face Lexiteers, and so on.Sean_F said:
It would probably be like one of those strange elections in the 1920's. Huge swings all over the place at constituency level.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the Tories are ahead in the polls because of Mrs May's lead in the leadership ratings, however I suspect that lead would crumble during an election campaign this year as the Tories couldn't unite over Brexit.kle4 said:I look forward to seeing the conclusion of whether the Tories are really ahead in the polls. Personally they could be and i wouldn't believe it, I just don't see how it would maintain itself in an electoral situation when it is so riven.
Few MPs will be completely easy in their minds that they will be back in the saddle after the election.
This is one of the main reasons why I don't expect an election.0 -
Not many, I suspect, because support for the deal wasn't high in the first place.kle4 said:
How many current Tory votes for the deal does she lose if that is the case?Scott_P said:
Not saying it is an unreasonable demand from the LD perspective - frankly I think it's May's only hope of her deal going through as well - but trying to figure out the maths of this, the LDs can be countered pretty quickly if more Tories defect.0 -
If only they had another 250 MPs it might be worth considering....Scott_P said:0 -
May should agree to a referendum, but only on the basis the authorising Act makes it an offence to refer to it as a People's Vote.
Good or bad, I don't think many books people are forced to read as children and adolescents end up being reread. Unless it is just right up your alley, the very fact of being required to do it sours the experience a bit.FF43 said:
Lord of the Flies, I recall from my English classes, ended that way too.Scott_P said:
Does anyone ever read that book, except at school?0 -
But more than 12? Some might have backed it on the basis that at least it guaranteed a form of leave, whereas a referendum does not.FF43 said:
Not many, I suspect, because support for the deal wasn't high in the first place.kle4 said:
How many current Tory votes for the deal does she lose if that is the case?Scott_P said:
Not saying it is an unreasonable demand from the LD perspective - frankly I think it's May's only hope of her deal going through as well - but trying to figure out the maths of this, the LDs can be countered pretty quickly if more Tories defect.0 -
Of course they shouldn't directly. Watch any vox pop - the BBC seems quite keen on them - of voters discussing Brexit and the vast majority having got the first bloody clue about any of the issues.FrankBooth said:
What the voters? Whether or not one supports referenda in general the notion that the voters shouldn't be able to determine our future is just as much to blame for where we are.Chris_A said:
Quite. And these are the people Cameron thought could reverently, discreetly, advisedly, soberly decide our future for decades to come.Scott_P said:0 -
Watching recent parliamentary debates, I’m not quite understanding the point you’re trying to make....Chris_A said:
Of course they shouldn't directly. Watch any vox pop - the BBC seems quite keen on them - of voters discussing Brexit and the vast majority having got the first bloody clue about any of the issues.FrankBooth said:
What the voters? Whether or not one supports referenda in general the notion that the voters shouldn't be able to determine our future is just as much to blame for where we are.Chris_A said:
Quite. And these are the people Cameron thought could reverently, discreetly, advisedly, soberly decide our future for decades to come.Scott_P said:
0 -
I'm a tea drinker myself, but this does sound concerning:
The first full assessment of risks to the world's coffee plants shows that 60% of 124 known species are on the edge of extinction.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-468454610 -
I think the catch is that May would want the choice to be Deal/No Deal.kle4 said:
How many current Tory votes for the deal does she lose if that is the case?Scott_P said:
Not saying it is an unreasonable demand from the LD perspective - frankly I think it's May's only hope of her deal going through as well - but trying to figure out the maths of this, the LDs can be countered pretty quickly if more Tories defect.0 -
I'm sure she would, the Deal might even have a chance then. But given most people who want a referendum want it because they want to remain, those whose votes May needs have good reason to hold firm.No_Offence_Alan said:
I think the catch is that May would want the choice to be Deal/No Deal.kle4 said:
How many current Tory votes for the deal does she lose if that is the case?Scott_P said:
Not saying it is an unreasonable demand from the LD perspective - frankly I think it's May's only hope of her deal going through as well - but trying to figure out the maths of this, the LDs can be countered pretty quickly if more Tories defect.0
