politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there’s a second referendum then LEAVE’s “Tell them Again”
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there’s a second referendum then LEAVE’s “Tell them Again” message would likely win the dsy
With increasing regularity the moment the national Westminster polls are asking how respondents would vote if there was a new referendum on Brexit. In the main the responses a fairly similar with those wanting to stay in the EU having a lead between 7 and 10%.
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E pluribus unum
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TSE did you just delete my first so you could be first?
SHENANIGANS.0 -
Did she lodge an appeal, or was it lodged by a mystery Russian?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.
I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.0 -
Remain will win a 2nd ref by a landslide because
1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.0 -
There was no collusion between myself and Vanilla.grabcocque said:TSE did you just delete my first so you could be first?
SHENANIGANS.0 -
Yes agree.
Leave's many many straplines would reach right to the heart of much of the British public.0 -
Leave would win again because Remain would double down on Project Fear, which worked so well last time. We can see this week that Westminster is still addicted to negative campaigning.0
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1. Incorrectgrabcocque said:Remain will win a 2nd ref by a landslide because
1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.
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I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...TheScreamingEagles said:For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.
I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.0 -
On topic.
Just rig the ballot by making Leave conditional on it being a success within five years or we rejoin in 2024 automatically replete with the Euro and Schengen.
And/or change the electorate by allowing 16/17 year olds and EU citizens to vote.0 -
I also don't get the assumption that remain would win next time; it's the same level of blind arrogance that cost them last time.
The Talleyrand quote "They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing" is entirely apt.
I'd expect 45 / 55 in a revoke / not revoke referendum.0 -
Line for Remain should be:
"Do you want to spend the next five years talking about Brexit or the NHS?"0 -
He is right about (3) though. This week May's deal could not muster a hundred supporters once the payroll vote is stripped out.TGOHF said:
1. Incorrectgrabcocque said:Remain will win a 2nd ref by a landslide because
1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.0 -
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The question will surely be "revoke or not revoke"; May's deal has been trashed by a huge margin, it's a norwegian blue, it's not being put in front of the publicgrabcocque said:Remain will win a 2nd ref by a landslide because
1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.0 -
Especially as the membership cost will have soared.asjohnstone said:I also don't get the assumption that remain would win next time; it's the same level of blind arrogance that cost them last time.
The Talleyrand quote "They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing" is entirely apt.
I'd expect 45 / 55 in a revoke / not revoke referendum.
Stay in - all the crap at twice the price - even less for the NHS...
Only chance remain have is if Farage runs the campaign rather than Cummings.
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What is the status of her parliamentary involvement at present? I note she voted on the deal, but abstained/was not present for the VoNC. Is she still a fully participating member?TheScreamingEagles said:
Interesting that the opposition were 4 down on the 2017 GE results yesterday and government were at par. The DUP only just retain the balance of power on those numbers.0 -
Lock her up, lock her up....TheScreamingEagles said:I asked Secret Barrister
https://twitter.com/barristersecret/status/1085842154105307136?s=210 -
Difficult to predict the result without knowing the question - I doubt it will be Mays deal vs Remain though - if it was , a mass boycott would be the likely outcome.DecrepitJohnL said:
He is right about (3) though. This week May's deal could not muster a hundred supporters once the payroll vote is stripped out.TGOHF said:
1. Incorrectgrabcocque said:Remain will win a 2nd ref by a landslide because
1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.0 -
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I've never been convinced that a second referendum was a good idea, unless or until there was some clear new Remain message to put before the public. We had a discussion yesterday on the content of Facebook pages and other sources of misleading information, especially in Leave supporting areas, and it's clear that 'we've voted once, get on with it' would resonate with enough people to get them to go and vote.
I very much fear we'e going to have to 'suck it and see' although maybe we can get away with a Customs Union which will ameliorate the worst effects of Leaving. There'll have to be some arrangement for services too, or the present trickle of service based firms to the rest of the UK (including Ireland) will become a flood.0 -
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Norwegian blue++ perhapsasjohnstone said:
The question will surely be "revoke or not revoke"; May's deal has been trashed by a huge margin, it's a norwegian blue, it's not being put in front of the publicgrabcocque said:Remain will win a 2nd ref by a landslide because
1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.0 -
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She’s still an MP but has been kicked out of the Labour Party.Pro_Rata said:
What is the status of her parliamentary involvement at present? I note she voted on the deal, but abstained/was not present for the VoNC. Is she still a fully participating member?TheScreamingEagles said:
Interesting that the opposition were 4 down on the 2017 GE results yesterday and government were at par. The DUP only just retain the balance of power on those numbers.
If she’s sentenced to 12 months or more her seat will be vacated automatically, if the sentence is less than that and she doesn’t take the Chiltern Hundreds, then she’s likely to be the subject of a recall petition in her constituency.
Not sure what happens if she’s sentenced to 12 months but appeals the conviction though, due process probably requires that the legal proceedings be allowed to play out. One for the Sepaker to decide, so it will be whatever decision makes Brexit more difficult.0 -
Depends what the options are.
If it's May's Deal versus Remain, then I'd make Remain strong favourite. Remainers, obviously, will like that. Whereas Leavers will be split between thinking May's Deal is better than nothing, and that it's atrocious and Remaining is better. It'd depress Leaver turnout in both senses of the word.
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Standing up for the 17.4m. Don't let the elite tell you how to vote.Scott_P said:
Under a giant poster of Gove, Bozo, Farage, and the Moggster.TOPPING said:I was thinking more of "who governs Britain?"
Genius!
There is something in the British psyche that doesn't take well to the establishment telling them they've got it wrong. Arch tweets from bien pensant remainers going down well on PB do not a referendum win.
That said, any referendum wouldn't be stated as Leave vs Remain. It would (have to) be May's Deal vs Remain and May's Deal in those circumstances would IMO likely prevail.0 -
It was more a question of her participation level in the meantime, along the lines of 'if Corbyn calls another VoNC on Monday when plan B turns out to be plan A, with no deal, does she vote'?Sandpit said:
She’s still an MP but has been kicked out of the Labour Party.Pro_Rata said:
What is the status of her parliamentary involvement at present? I note she voted on the deal, but abstained/was not present for the VoNC. Is she still a fully participating member?TheScreamingEagles said:
Interesting that the opposition were 4 down on the 2017 GE results yesterday and government were at par. The DUP only just retain the balance of power on those numbers.
If she’s sentenced to 12 months or more her seat will be vacated automatically, if the sentence is less than that and she doesn’t take the Chiltern Hundreds, then she’s likely to be the subject of a recall petition in her constituency.
Not sure what happens if she’s sentenced to 12 months but appeals the conviction though, due process probably requires that the legal proceedings be allowed to play out. One for the Sepaker to decide, so it will be whatever decision makes Brexit more difficult.0 -
Just make it stop = don't bother your pretty little head with the details, we'll sort it all out.Scott_P said:
For every Remain attack line there would be an easy us vs them rebuttal.0 -
A second referendum campaign would be dominated by leavers pressurising their opponents to rule out a third referendum if they lost again.
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There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.Sandpit said:
I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...TheScreamingEagles said:For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.
I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.
Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.
Funny old world.0 -
So many variables about a hypothetical " second referendum " and the incumbent's majority of 3.8% is so small I think predicting the result now is a fools errand. That said I'm sympathetic to the view there has been no fundamental polling shift. Or more accurately no permanent one. My reading of the data is the underlying Leave vote has been worn down by the unremittingly bad news from the negitiations. We don't know if that would stay the same during the campaign where 50/50 air time is mandated.
What all the polling data and social research does show is that Leave has gained *no* ground. There has been absolutely no extra buy in to the project per se. Just releaving. That's why I say Brexit has nothing going for it other than it's inevitability. Take that away and anything is possible.0 -
Doing as the 52% told them to do would make it stop.Scott_P said:
"Vote for May's Deal to Make It Stop......"
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This is spot on from Mike.
The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.
Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.0 -
I think Mike's right. We have to arrive at the same place by a different route. Asking the residents of Hartlepool to think again would be fruitless. We have to leave and it has to have serious consequences followed by finding someone other than themselves to blame.0
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There are more people in London than Manchester.Sandpit said:
I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...TheScreamingEagles said:For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.
I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.0 -
I think that most Leavers just think that Remainers have failed to implement the referendum result (look at the comments on here from Leavers). If I were a Leaver ( "......." ) I would be irritated at the likely referendum question (deal vs remain) but it is the only option so I would have to suck it up.Yellow_Submarine said:So many variables about a hypothetical " second referendum " and the incumbent's majority of 3.8% is so small I think predicting the result now is a fools errand. That said I'm sympathetic to the view there has been no fundamental polling shift. Or more accurately no permanent one. My reading of the data is the underlying Leave vote has been worn down by the unremittingly bad news from the negitiations. We don't know if that would stay the same during the campaign where 50/50 air time is mandated.
What all the polling data and social research does show is that Leave has gained *no* ground. There has been absolutely no extra buy in to the project per se. Just releaving. That's why I say Brexit has nothing going for it other than it's inevitability. Take that away and anything is possible.0 -
And why did the Brexiteers not do that?MarqueeMark said:Doing as the 52% told them to do would make it stop.
"Vote for May's Deal to Make It Stop......"
As Matthew Parris says, they don't actually want it to stop. Neverending debate over Brexit is their Nirvana0 -
Deslection for Benn and Cooper then - the Maomentum hounds will be released.Scott_P said:0 -
If it's Remain vs Deal, I would expect the likes of Farage and Boris to run a extra-campaign campaign for people to protest by spoiling their ballot papers. I could well see many millions of people doing so.Morris_Dancer said:Depends what the options are.
If it's May's Deal versus Remain, then I'd make Remain strong favourite. Remainers, obviously, will like that. Whereas Leavers will be split between thinking May's Deal is better than nothing, and that it's atrocious and Remaining is better. It'd depress Leaver turnout in both senses of the word.0 -
Tony Blair today joined condemnation of Jeremy Corbyn for refusing to hold Brexit talks with the PM. Mr Blair said it was wrong for the Opposition leader to snub a meeting with the premier at a 'moment of national crisis'.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6601991/Tony-Blair-joins-condemnation-Corbyn-REFUSING-hold-Brexit-talks.html
The cult will now definitely be convinced Jezza is making the correct decision.0 -
I almost agree.
The reason I would make Remain narrow favourite is because a fresh referendum would not be Remain v Leave but Remain v A Specific Option. A Specific Option is not as popular as Leave.
Otherwise I agree completely.0 -
I reckon boycotting the vote would be more effective. Telling people to spoil their ballot paper might reveal that there isn't quite as much support for the Farage et al position.david_herdson said:
If it's Remain vs Deal, I would expect the likes of Farage and Boris to run a extra-campaign campaign for people to protest by spoiling their ballot papers. I could well see many millions of people doing so.Morris_Dancer said:Depends what the options are.
If it's May's Deal versus Remain, then I'd make Remain strong favourite. Remainers, obviously, will like that. Whereas Leavers will be split between thinking May's Deal is better than nothing, and that it's atrocious and Remaining is better. It'd depress Leaver turnout in both senses of the word.0 -
From that, it also sounds like leave to appeal has to be granted and isn't automatic? Given the established facts of the case, how likely is such a grant? I don't really see what arguments she has for appeal other than that she doesn't like the verdict and wants another go.TheScreamingEagles said:I asked Secret Barrister
https://twitter.com/barristersecret/status/1085842154105307136?s=210 -
Dunno. Not one of them.Scott_P said:
And why did the Brexiteers not do that?MarqueeMark said:Doing as the 52% told them to do would make it stop.
"Vote for May's Deal to Make It Stop......"
As Matthew Parris says, they don't actually want it to stop. Neverending debate over Brexit is their Nirvana
Maybe they think the EU will actually cave and offer something better in the final 48 hours? Like they always do?0 -
And just as May has insisted on ignoring every single person who did not vote Leave last time, the government of the day would ignore all spoilt ballots in any future vote.david_herdson said:If it's Remain vs Deal, I would expect the likes of Farage and Boris to run a extra-campaign campaign for people to protest by spoiling their ballot papers. I could well see many millions of people doing so.
Another genius plan.0 -
Even worse is some Remainers using "always keep tight hold of nurse". Remember this from last time?david_herdson said:This is spot on from Mike.
The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.
Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.
Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.
Not Corbyn; not May; David Cameron leading the charge for Remain.0 -
I suspect it depends a lot on what the question is. If its specific option vs Remain, Remain will benefit from those not liking that particular Leave option either voting against it or abstaining. If its another Leave vs Remain vote (which I really wouldn't see the point in) there is a bigger chance of this happening. My personal experience, fwiw, is the vast majority would do the same but the two people I've spoken to who would vote differently, say they would change from Leave to Remain.0
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Mr. Herdson, that's eminently possible.
Mr. Redux, welcome to PB.0 -
You could then get Remain winning 95-5 on a 30% turnout as a mass campaign is launched to stick 2 fingers up to the referendum.AlastairMeeks said:I almost agree.
The reason I would make Remain narrow favourite is because a fresh referendum would not be Remain v Leave but Remain v A Specific Option. A Specific Option is not as popular as Leave.
y.
No doubt that would be sufficient ringing endorsment for Remainers to sign us back up for billions of quid annually for the pleasure of a huge trade deficit.
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I think there is some truth in this. The highly negative politics of division that they thrive on is based on an outraged sense of faux injustice. Things to get red in the face about. They will continue to hate Jonny and Joanne Foreigner after Brexit of course, but they know this will be more difficult to blame him now that we have "taken back control". Maybe they will move their hatred to each other, the " I am more pure Brexit than you are" phase of their psychosisScott_P said:
And why did the Brexiteers not do that?MarqueeMark said:Doing as the 52% told them to do would make it stop.
"Vote for May's Deal to Make It Stop......"
As Matthew Parris says, they don't actually want it to stop. Neverending debate over Brexit is their Nirvana0 -
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I'm increasingly coming to the Norway idea. It seems to please almost no one, and therefore is probably a good candidate for a national compromise.
As someone pointed out earlier, if this stops free trade deals that Tory ultras dream of making, then they can revisit it at a later date via a manifesto commitment (although not all the party will want it in there). It would have to be in the form of, over the course of the next parliament we will exit a customs union in a staged process allowing time for business to adjust.0 -
I will declare as a Manchester area raised (aged 2-18 and folks still live in the same 0161, SELNEC'y bit in which most people consider themselves Mancunian rather than Lancastrian), at least third paternal generation Mancunian and second generation United fan.Anazina said:
There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.Sandpit said:
I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...TheScreamingEagles said:For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.
I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.
Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.
Funny old world.
And Big G is Manchester born as well.
Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.0 -
Of course the one option that I wouldn't put past May to do (oh wait, she might not be that clever) is to have Leave vs Remain and, if Leave wins, and without further recourse to anyone, say "great, my deal is Leave so that is the WA ratified and off we go."Redux said:I suspect it depends a lot on what the question is. If its specific option vs Remain, Remain will benefit from those not liking that particular Leave option either voting against it or abstaining. If its another Leave vs Remain vote (which I really wouldn't see the point in) there is a bigger chance of this happening. My personal experience, fwiw, is the vast majority would do the same but the two people I've spoken to who would vote differently, say they would change from Leave to Remain.
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You can, AIUI, appeal on the grounds that the case wasn't conducted correctly. Isn't that what the guy in the speedboat case is doing? (From hiding!)david_herdson said:
From that, it also sounds like leave to appeal has to be granted and isn't automatic? Given the established facts of the case, how likely is such a grant? I don't really see what arguments she has for appeal other than that she doesn't like the verdict and wants another go.TheScreamingEagles said:I asked Secret Barrister
https://twitter.com/barristersecret/status/1085842154105307136?s=210 -
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Yes, it wouldn't be a rerun of the 2016 referendum, it would be a choice of (probably) May's Deal vs Remain.AlastairMeeks said:I almost agree.
The reason I would make Remain narrow favourite is because a fresh referendum would not be Remain v Leave but Remain v A Specific Option. A Specific Option is not as popular as Leave.
Otherwise I agree completely.0 -
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This is all a bit anecdotal, and the polling does consistently suggest a shift from Leave to Remain. Obviously it could shift back during a campaign, but I don't think it's deniable that some shift has occurred.0
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And how would that form of referendum get past Parly ? The ERG, DUP and most of the Cons bar the Euro-loons wouldn't support it.logical_song said:
Yes, it wouldn't be a rerun of the 2016 referendum, it would be a choice of (probably) May's Deal vs Remain.AlastairMeeks said:I almost agree.
The reason I would make Remain narrow favourite is because a fresh referendum would not be Remain v Leave but Remain v A Specific Option. A Specific Option is not as popular as Leave.
Otherwise I agree completely.
Neither would many on the Labour side - in case Leave won again.0 -
That was the fundamental problem for remain the last time. Very few people can find anything positive to say about the EU, even if they have reservations about how we would do outside it. How anyone could have a better view of the EU today than they did in 2016 after the last 2 years is really beyond my comprehension.DecrepitJohnL said:
Even worse is some Remainers using "always keep tight hold of nurse". Remember this from last time?david_herdson said:This is spot on from Mike.
The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.
Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.
Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.
Not Corbyn; not May; David Cameron leading the charge for Remain.
FWIW I also know very few people who have changed their minds but I do know a few who voted remain but think that the last vote has to be delivered on for good or ill. In fairness that viewpoint is quite well represented on PB too. How would they vote? I am really not sure, most have not changed their minds about the underlying merits of the decision.0 -
We did have one, but he's banned.Pro_Rata said:
I will declare as a Manchester area raised (aged 2-18 and folks still live in the same 0161, SELNEC'y bit in which most people consider themselves Mancunian rather than Lancastrian), at least third paternal generation Mancunian and second generation United fan.Anazina said:
There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.Sandpit said:
I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...TheScreamingEagles said:For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.
I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.
Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.
Funny old world.
And Big G is Manchester born as well.
Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.0 -
I've lis..ed les journals It's wall to wall Thierry Henry V Patrick Vieira. They wouldn't know Corbyn from a malfunctioning urinal and talking to my restaurateur friend Macron is OK.Alanbrooke said:
nah youre in France where its Macron versus LePen.Roger said:After the worst performance by a government and PM in living memory what is to-day's top story? Corbyn refusing to enter discussions. Who could have guessed?
We've almost certainly got the worst PM most of us can remember but to have the worst leader of the opposition at the same time is surely unique.
Lis les journaux Roger
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David Cameron wasn't especially good at elections. He should probably have done better against Brown than he did, and he 'won' the 2015 one against his coalition partners, not against Labour.DecrepitJohnL said:
Even worse is some Remainers using "always keep tight hold of nurse". Remember this from last time?david_herdson said:This is spot on from Mike.
The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.
Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.
Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.
Not Corbyn; not May; David Cameron leading the charge for Remain.0 -
I think this is how it should be sold to the headbangers. If you want something more "pure" you will need to agitate for it, but this is a staging post for you to do so, (or perhaps a staging post back to full membership when most Brexiteers have gone fully gaga )rottenborough said:I'm increasingly coming to the Norway idea. It seems to please almost no one, and therefore is probably a good candidate for a national compromise.
As someone pointed out earlier, if this stops free trade deals that Tory ultras dream of making, then they can revisit it at a later date via a manifesto commitment (although not all the party will want it in there). It would have to be in the form of, over the course of the next parliament we will exit a customs union in a staged process allowing time for business to adjust.0 -
O/T I do find it gobsmackingly incredible that now, and only now, two and a half years after becoming PM, Theresa May has decided it might be a good idea to talk to other parties about how to implement a narrowly won, deeply divisive referendum decision.
And even then she is choosing to take an "everything is on the table apart from the things I am ruling out" line.
Un-be-liev-ab-le!0 -
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Another "Leave versus Remain" vote would be to ask a silly question a second time, and not expect a silly answer.
One is "whatever the voter wants it to be", the other is something specific that can be attacked. The Independent Commission on Referendums suggested that, if possible, referendums should be post-legislative - to give a go/no-go to something that's specific and ready-to-go; if it's for an indicative direction, they should be two-referendum processes (First one: "Let's go in this direction" (eg Leave/Remain); second one: "We accept this Leave proposal"). Another Leave/Remain referendum would solve nothing, anyway.
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Mr. P, Meaningful Vote - Episode II: Attack of the Clones?0
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Well.OldKingCole said:
David Cameron wasn't especially good at elections. He should probably have done better against Brown than he did, and he 'won' the 2015 one against his coalition partners, not against Labour.DecrepitJohnL said:
Even worse is some Remainers using "always keep tight hold of nurse". Remember this from last time?david_herdson said:This is spot on from Mike.
The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.
Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.
Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.
Not Corbyn; not May; David Cameron leading the charge for Remain.
Its a view.0 -
I am not sure that is true.DavidL said:That was the fundamental problem for remain the last time. Very few people can find anything positive to say about the EU, even if they have reservations about how we would do outside it. How anyone could have a better view of the EU today than they did in 2016 after the last 2 years is really beyond my comprehension.
Every positive thing about the EU was dismissed by the Leave campaign and their never-ending torrent of populist bullshit, which we know attracts more votes than reality.0 -
It's not really the sort of thing you admit in polite company is it?Pro_Rata said:
I will declare as a Manchester area raised (aged 2-18 and folks still live in the same 0161, SELNEC'y bit in which most people consider themselves Mancunian rather than Lancastrian), at least third paternal generation Mancunian and second generation United fan.Anazina said:
There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.Sandpit said:
I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...TheScreamingEagles said:For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.
I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.
Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.
Funny old world.
And Big G is Manchester born as well.
Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.0 -
Just like if Lab appointed a new, sensible leader, likewise if I was presented with a Deal vs Remain option on a ballot I would have a lot of thinking to do.DavidL said:
That was the fundamental problem for remain the last time. Very few people can find anything positive to say about the EU, even if they have reservations about how we would do outside it. How anyone could have a better view of the EU today than they did in 2016 after the last 2 years is really beyond my comprehension.DecrepitJohnL said:
Even worse is some Remainers using "always keep tight hold of nurse". Remember this from last time?david_herdson said:This is spot on from Mike.
The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.
Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.
Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.
Not Corbyn; not May; David Cameron leading the charge for Remain.
FWIW I also know very few people who have changed their minds but I do know a few who voted remain but think that the last vote has to be delivered on for good or ill. In fairness that viewpoint is quite well represented on PB too. How would they vote? I am really not sure, most have not changed their minds about the underlying merits of the decision.
Dave's deal for me secured some very welcome, perhaps vital concessions from the EU. Plus there is the fact that how on earth will they view us in any negotiation about anything thinking that we might flounce out again. It will also likely have hardened attitudes of our erstwhile EU allies to some extent against us.
That said I'd probably vote Remain again but it is by no means a slam dunk.0 -
https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1085849767631118336Benpointer said:O/T I do find it gobsmackingly incredible that now, and only now, two and a half years after becoming PM, Theresa May has decided it might be a good idea to talk to other parties about how to implement a narrowly won, deeply divisive referendum decision.
And even then she is choosing to take an "everything is on the table apart from the things I am ruling out" line.
Un-be-liev-ab-le!0 -
From my days conducting employment and exclusion hearings as a school governor, there were always three good grounds for appeal:OldKingCole said:
You can, AIUI, appeal on the grounds that the case wasn't conducted correctly. Isn't that what the guy in the speedboat case is doing? (From hiding!)david_herdson said:
From that, it also sounds like leave to appeal has to be granted and isn't automatic? Given the established facts of the case, how likely is such a grant? I don't really see what arguments she has for appeal other than that she doesn't like the verdict and wants another go.TheScreamingEagles said:I asked Secret Barrister
https://twitter.com/barristersecret/status/1085842154105307136?s=21
- process failures leading to the applicant being disadvantaged or the conclusion potentially compromised;
- a clearly perverse judgement given the evidence presented;
- new and compelling evidence.
I don't know whether the courts apply the same rules but they seemed pretty good principles to me.0 -
Very hard to say how a referendum would go - as Alastair says, the options would be much more specific this time. What I think is clear is that views have become more polarised, which in itself means a referendum would be damaging rather than a way of healing the divisions.
However, the purpose of a referendum would be to come to a decision, bypassing the grandstanding of MPs. If it were Revoke vs Orderly Leave, both options would be viable and either could be implemented.
It's not a good course of action, because of the anger it would provoke whatever the options. Starting from here, the best (or rather least bad) course of action remains the deal on the table.
But if MPs are determined to sabotage that, another referendum is the second least bad way of moving forward, since it would give at least a figleaf of democratic cover for ignoring the 2016 referendum or alternatively for ratifying the negotiated deal.0 -
A surprising mistake by someone as politcally astute as Blair. If he wants Corbyn to negotiate he should tell him not to do so.FrancisUrquhart said:Tony Blair today joined condemnation of Jeremy Corbyn for refusing to hold Brexit talks with the PM. Mr Blair said it was wrong for the Opposition leader to snub a meeting with the premier at a 'moment of national crisis'.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6601991/Tony-Blair-joins-condemnation-Corbyn-REFUSING-hold-Brexit-talks.html
The cult will now definitely be convinced Jezza is making the correct decision.0 -
Let's face it, he was just too lazy to go and see her last night. I loathe the SNP, but at least we can see that their leaders in the HoC and back in Scotland are proper serious politicians. Corbyn is just a joke, a low intellect lightweight who is completely out of his depth.Scott_P said:0 -
I don’t think any of the PB ‘Scousers’ are even slightly scouse. Hence why I find their goading of Utd fans slightly off. At least many of the Utd fans on here have a distinct connection to Greater Manchester!Pro_Rata said:
I will declare as a Manchester area raised (aged 2-18 and folks still live in the same 0161, SELNEC'y bit in which most people consider themselves Mancunian rather than Lancastrian), at least third paternal generation Mancunian and second generation United fan.Anazina said:
There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.Sandpit said:
I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...TheScreamingEagles said:For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.
I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.
Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.
Funny old world.
And Big G is Manchester born as well.
Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.0 -
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All of this discussion shows why an A50 *extension* should be ( and I think now actually is ) the immeadiate priority of Operation Underwood. Remain not only needs a gateway drug our best weapon at the moment is the industrial mass of reality. Another referendum immeadiately moves the battle front back to Leave's best territory - emotion, slogans, campaigning. If we campaign in poetry but govern in propose then Remain needs to keep the debate in prose for as long as possible. Thankfully I think those running Operation Underwood see this and at least esoterically are running that strategy while People's Vote remains the legacy exoteric brand.0
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He was speaking publically to his own followers rather than Corbyn's, the latter of whom he has (quite rightly) absolute contempt for.glw said:
A surprising mistake by someone as politcally astute as Blair. If he wants Corbyn to negotiate he should tell him not to do so.FrancisUrquhart said:Tony Blair today joined condemnation of Jeremy Corbyn for refusing to hold Brexit talks with the PM. Mr Blair said it was wrong for the Opposition leader to snub a meeting with the premier at a 'moment of national crisis'.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6601991/Tony-Blair-joins-condemnation-Corbyn-REFUSING-hold-Brexit-talks.html
The cult will now definitely be convinced Jezza is making the correct decision.0 -
Is he banned - or did he flounce?tlg86 said:
We did have one, but he's banned.Pro_Rata said:
I will declare as a Manchester area raised (aged 2-18 and folks still live in the same 0161, SELNEC'y bit in which most people consider themselves Mancunian rather than Lancastrian), at least third paternal generation Mancunian and second generation United fan.Anazina said:
There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.Sandpit said:
I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...TheScreamingEagles said:For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.
I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.
Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.
Funny old world.
And Big G is Manchester born as well.
Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.0 -
Well it depends. If the same generic question as 2016 were posed again I could see Leave winning again. Although I could see Remain winning too. Very hard to call. What is not hard to call is the result of Remain vs Mrs May's trashed deal that almost every one of the leading Leave campaigners from last time are on record as saying is an abomination. If this were to be the question, it would be of the rhetorical variety. In that event I'm a buyer of Remain at 60 for ruinous stakes and would not lose a single wink of sleep. Not a genuine contest, which is one of the many reasons it will not be happening. Nor will any other formulation IMO. Parliament must decide and I think they will. Come on you parliament!0
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I think that you greatly underestimate how far behind the Tories were in 2010. They started with under 200 seats. Blair had won over huge tranches of their natural supporters and found a series of ways to enhance incumbency. I think it is quite hard to describe the result as much short of spectacular for the Tories. To then increase his number of seats to a majority in office was again unusual if not unique.OldKingCole said:
David Cameron wasn't especially good at elections. He should probably have done better against Brown than he did, and he 'won' the 2015 one against his coalition partners, not against Labour.DecrepitJohnL said:
Even worse is some Remainers using "always keep tight hold of nurse". Remember this from last time?david_herdson said:This is spot on from Mike.
The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.
Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.
Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.
Not Corbyn; not May; David Cameron leading the charge for Remain.0 -
I prefer. Last time we asked you a stupid question. You gave us a stupid answer. So we're not going to ask you again.asjohnstone said:
The question will surely be "revoke or not revoke"; May's deal has been trashed by a huge margin, it's a norwegian blue, it's not being put in front of the publicgrabcocque said:Remain will win a 2nd ref by a landslide because
1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.0 -
Was that some sort of coded message?Yellow_Submarine said:All of this discussion shows why an A50 *extension* should be ( and I think now actually is ) the immeadiate priority of Operation Underwood. Remain not only needs a gateway drug our best weapon at the moment is the industrial mass of reality. Another referendum immeadiately moves the battle front back to Leave's best territory - emotion, slogans, campaigning. If we campaign in poetry but govern in propose then Remain needs to keep the debate in prose for as long as possible. Thankfully I think those running Operation Underwood see this and at least esoterically are running that strategy while People's Vote remains the legacy exoteric brand.
0 -
Exactly. The ultras need to accept that they get Brexit if they go down this route. They certainly get a form that I think most leave voters vaguely understood as what leave meant e.g. not no deal chaos.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think this is how it should be sold to the headbangers. If you want something more "pure" you will need to agitate for it, but this is a staging post for you to do so, (or perhaps a staging post back to full membership when most Brexiteers have gone fully gaga )rottenborough said:I'm increasingly coming to the Norway idea. It seems to please almost no one, and therefore is probably a good candidate for a national compromise.
As someone pointed out earlier, if this stops free trade deals that Tory ultras dream of making, then they can revisit it at a later date via a manifesto commitment (although not all the party will want it in there). It would have to be in the form of, over the course of the next parliament we will exit a customs union in a staged process allowing time for business to adjust.
If they don't compromise, the prize will/may slip away.0 -
The person I'm thinking of is very much banned.MarqueeMark said:
Is he banned - or did he flounce?tlg86 said:
We did have one, but he's banned.Pro_Rata said:
I will declare as a Manchester area raised (aged 2-18 and folks still live in the same 0161, SELNEC'y bit in which most people consider themselves Mancunian rather than Lancastrian), at least third paternal generation Mancunian and second generation United fan.Anazina said:
There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.Sandpit said:
I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...TheScreamingEagles said:For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.
I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.
Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.
Funny old world.
And Big G is Manchester born as well.
Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.0 -
There's an old and dreadfully unfair 'joke'DavidL said:
It's not really the sort of thing you admit in polite company is it?Pro_Rata said:
I will declare as a Manchester area raised (aged 2-18 and folks still live in the same 0161, SELNEC'y bit in which most people consider themselves Mancunian rather than Lancastrian), at least third paternal generation Mancunian and second generation United fan.Anazina said:
There are seemingly more Liverpool fans on PB than there are in Liverpool.Sandpit said:
I always met more United fans while working in London than Manchester...TheScreamingEagles said:For several years I was the only Liverpool fan in Manchester.
I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.
Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.
Funny old world.
And Big G is Manchester born as well.
Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.
Q. What do you call a scouser in a suit?
A. The defendant.
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