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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there’s a second referendum then LEAVE’s “Tell them Again” message would likely win the dsy
With increasing regularity the moment the national Westminster polls are asking how respondents would vote if there was a new referendum on Brexit. In the main the responses a fairly similar with those wanting to stay in the EU having a lead between 7 and 10%.
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https://twitter.com/ptstephenb/status/1085838038666752000?s=21
SHENANIGANS.
I was a unifying force for Citeh and United fans.
1) It'll be a choice between remain and May's deal
2) The remain slogan will be "FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST MAKE IT STOP"
3) Nobody will campaign for May's deal except May and the leavers will boycott it.
Leave's many many straplines would reach right to the heart of much of the British public.
Just rig the ballot by making Leave conditional on it being a success within five years or we rejoin in 2024 automatically replete with the Euro and Schengen.
And/or change the electorate by allowing 16/17 year olds and EU citizens to vote.
"Easiest deal in history"
"Nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market"
The Talleyrand quote "They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing" is entirely apt.
I'd expect 45 / 55 in a revoke / not revoke referendum.
"Do you want to spend the next five years talking about Brexit or the NHS?"
https://twitter.com/barristersecret/status/1085842154105307136?s=21
Stay in - all the crap at twice the price - even less for the NHS...
Only chance remain have is if Farage runs the campaign rather than Cummings.
Interesting that the opposition were 4 down on the 2017 GE results yesterday and government were at par. The DUP only just retain the balance of power on those numbers.
Genius!
I very much fear we'e going to have to 'suck it and see' although maybe we can get away with a Customs Union which will ameliorate the worst effects of Leaving. There'll have to be some arrangement for services too, or the present trickle of service based firms to the rest of the UK (including Ireland) will become a flood.
https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/746488316510482433?lang=en
If she’s sentenced to 12 months or more her seat will be vacated automatically, if the sentence is less than that and she doesn’t take the Chiltern Hundreds, then she’s likely to be the subject of a recall petition in her constituency.
Not sure what happens if she’s sentenced to 12 months but appeals the conviction though, due process probably requires that the legal proceedings be allowed to play out. One for the Sepaker to decide, so it will be whatever decision makes Brexit more difficult.
If it's May's Deal versus Remain, then I'd make Remain strong favourite. Remainers, obviously, will like that. Whereas Leavers will be split between thinking May's Deal is better than nothing, and that it's atrocious and Remaining is better. It'd depress Leaver turnout in both senses of the word.
There is something in the British psyche that doesn't take well to the establishment telling them they've got it wrong. Arch tweets from bien pensant remainers going down well on PB do not a referendum win.
That said, any referendum wouldn't be stated as Leave vs Remain. It would (have to) be May's Deal vs Remain and May's Deal in those circumstances would IMO likely prevail.
For every Remain attack line there would be an easy us vs them rebuttal.
Almost none of them were born in Liverpool or are resident therein.
Funny old world.
What all the polling data and social research does show is that Leave has gained *no* ground. There has been absolutely no extra buy in to the project per se. Just releaving. That's why I say Brexit has nothing going for it other than it's inevitability. Take that away and anything is possible.
"Vote for May's Deal to Make It Stop......"
The argument "what part of Leave did they not understand?" is easy to make and hard to counter.
Also, Remain activists seem to be making all the same mistakes as last time: talking to themselves and assuming that EU membership is a self-evidently good thing that doesn't need explaining, and that opponents of it must therefore be stupid, racist or in it for some other malign intent.
As Matthew Parris says, they don't actually want it to stop. Neverending debate over Brexit is their Nirvana
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6601991/Tony-Blair-joins-condemnation-Corbyn-REFUSING-hold-Brexit-talks.html
The cult will now definitely be convinced Jezza is making the correct decision.
The reason I would make Remain narrow favourite is because a fresh referendum would not be Remain v Leave but Remain v A Specific Option. A Specific Option is not as popular as Leave.
Otherwise I agree completely.
Maybe they think the EU will actually cave and offer something better in the final 48 hours? Like they always do?
Another genius plan.
Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.
Not Corbyn; not May; David Cameron leading the charge for Remain.
Mr. Redux, welcome to PB.
No doubt that would be sufficient ringing endorsment for Remainers to sign us back up for billions of quid annually for the pleasure of a huge trade deficit.
As someone pointed out earlier, if this stops free trade deals that Tory ultras dream of making, then they can revisit it at a later date via a manifesto commitment (although not all the party will want it in there). It would have to be in the form of, over the course of the next parliament we will exit a customs union in a staged process allowing time for business to adjust.
And Big G is Manchester born as well.
Come to think of it, do we have any Scousers on here of any description? I can't remember a single declaration of such.
Neither would many on the Labour side - in case Leave won again.
FWIW I also know very few people who have changed their minds but I do know a few who voted remain but think that the last vote has to be delivered on for good or ill. In fairness that viewpoint is quite well represented on PB too. How would they vote? I am really not sure, most have not changed their minds about the underlying merits of the decision.
And even then she is choosing to take an "everything is on the table apart from the things I am ruling out" line.
Un-be-liev-ab-le!
One is "whatever the voter wants it to be", the other is something specific that can be attacked. The Independent Commission on Referendums suggested that, if possible, referendums should be post-legislative - to give a go/no-go to something that's specific and ready-to-go; if it's for an indicative direction, they should be two-referendum processes (First one: "Let's go in this direction" (eg Leave/Remain); second one: "We accept this Leave proposal"). Another Leave/Remain referendum would solve nothing, anyway.
Its a view.
Every positive thing about the EU was dismissed by the Leave campaign and their never-ending torrent of populist bullshit, which we know attracts more votes than reality.
Dave's deal for me secured some very welcome, perhaps vital concessions from the EU. Plus there is the fact that how on earth will they view us in any negotiation about anything thinking that we might flounce out again. It will also likely have hardened attitudes of our erstwhile EU allies to some extent against us.
That said I'd probably vote Remain again but it is by no means a slam dunk.
- process failures leading to the applicant being disadvantaged or the conclusion potentially compromised;
- a clearly perverse judgement given the evidence presented;
- new and compelling evidence.
I don't know whether the courts apply the same rules but they seemed pretty good principles to me.
However, the purpose of a referendum would be to come to a decision, bypassing the grandstanding of MPs. If it were Revoke vs Orderly Leave, both options would be viable and either could be implemented.
It's not a good course of action, because of the anger it would provoke whatever the options. Starting from here, the best (or rather least bad) course of action remains the deal on the table.
But if MPs are determined to sabotage that, another referendum is the second least bad way of moving forward, since it would give at least a figleaf of democratic cover for ignoring the 2016 referendum or alternatively for ratifying the negotiated deal.
If they don't compromise, the prize will/may slip away.
Q. What do you call a scouser in a suit?
A. The defendant.