politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair a March 29th UK EU exit now just a 15% chance whils
Comments
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True, however, Boris Johnson is on the record as saying a first referendum vote to Leave could be used as a bargaining tool to get the UK a better deal. If that failed we should then just continue with our current membership arrangements. I would also add that Cameron is a retired politician where as Boris is active and after the Top job!williamglenn said:
To remind people what an idiot Cameron was for the way the first referendum was framed?kyf_100 said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRowLjb0x48TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's a second referendum, Leave just has to play this on loop for six weeks until the vote.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/social-affairs/politics/news/68437/boris-johnson-vote-leave-get-better-eu-deal-britain0 -
Labour, the LDs, PC, Green, and the SNP. Not as a first option, obviously, but if a GE meant it was more Tory government or a Corbyn one?Casino_Royale said:
Who in the right mind would want Corbyn anywhere near power?Pulpstar said:290-299 bizarrely coming into play !
That'll be a vote of no confidence in Corbyn himself.0 -
I have to thank you for putting me onto it.Morris_Dancer said:Anyway, I'm off. Good luck to those betting on the numbers. As I wrote this morning, was tempted by 3.8 on 300-309, but decided against it.
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Mike seems to forget that Ed won fewer seats in 2015 than Corbyn did in 2017Stereotomy said:
And the last couple of elections showed us just what a reliable indicator that isTheScreamingEagles said:
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DittoAlastairMeeks said:
I have to thank you for putting me onto it.Morris_Dancer said:Anyway, I'm off. Good luck to those betting on the numbers. As I wrote this morning, was tempted by 3.8 on 300-309, but decided against it.
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If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.
Something to remember over the coming months.0 -
Lab free vote Brexit idea seems eminently sensible.
A good idea would be to extend the plan to the whole house.0 -
I think a chunk of Labour and LDs would be terrified.kle4 said:
Labour, the LDs, PC, Green, and the SNP. Not as a first option, obviously, but if a GE meant it was more Tory government or a Corbyn one?Casino_Royale said:
Who in the right mind would want Corbyn anywhere near power?Pulpstar said:290-299 bizarrely coming into play !
That'll be a vote of no confidence in Corbyn himself.
The SNP, PC and Greens would see opportunity but wouldn’t want to be tainted too much by association.0 -
The time may have come for PR, but Parliament (as currently constituted, at the very least) will never back it. The two large parties won't want to give up on a majoritarian system whilst they can still benefit from it.IanB2 said:
It's flawed because Parliament isn't representative and because so many useless MPs sit with jobs for life in safe seats. Not to mention the Lords.kle4 said:
I'm depressed by many recent debates too, but I rather think that condemning the system itself as not fit for purpose is a proportionate reaction. Ultimately the present problem is MPs being brutally divided on the most critical issue of the day. Aspects of our system might well aggravate problems we have, but I don't see much to suggest the system itself is fundamentally flawed.oxfordsimon said:I have just watched a few contributions to this 'debate'
Creasy started off shouting and just got shriller as she went on - trying to be clever and just coming off as self-absorbed
No idea who Alison Thewlis is - but she is no orator. Most of the things she ranted about were Scottish matters that her own party could have addressed but haven't as the SNP are just obsessed with one issue.
What is the point of allowing 6 hours for pointless MPs to spew pointless nonsense? There is nothing to illuminate or elucidate. It is just posturing. And it does nothing to help anyone achieve anything.
I am far from convinced that our Parliamentary system is any longer fit for purpose. It certainly isn't working. Whether that is the system or the current inhabitants, I am not yet certain. But something needs to change.
On the other hand... they should bear in mind that FPTP may help to keep the prospect of future instability alive. After all, if issues like Brexit are decided by referendum then the winning side requires an absolute majority. If on the other hand, an insurgent party has a bit of luck in a General Election then, under FPTP, it can win control of Parliament with a third of the popular vote.0 -
If the meaningful vote had passed last night, they'd still have needed to get the legislation through without DUP support before exit day, and we'd then have been plunged into further divisive negotiations with no consensus on the negotiating position.Casino_Royale said:If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.
Something to remember over the coming months.0 -
What on earth are you talking about? It is the withdrawal agreement not the final trading relationship.Casino_Royale said:
I see no point in BINO. If that was on the table versus Remain, I’d spoil my ballet.SandyRentool said:
Norwegian Blue-Pluseek said:
It may be the only deal in town but how do you get 116+ MPs to change their minds when the EU aren't going to change anything?TOPPING said:
Except... the Deal is the only game in town. What a huge waste of time waiting for the HoC to realise that.eek said:
It may happen if the risk of the Tory party being destroyed by a No Deal exit becomes too high a risk.Anorak said:
That would be worth it just to see the froth explosion. The gammons would shift into beetroots, and then aubergines.FF43 said:
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rBlack_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
Not going to happen though, too many people lashed to their particular masts to facilitate it.
As I said earlier the 2 options are revoke or No Deal - given that the Deal has been so comprehensively rejected I can see zero other options available...
So what options are left on the table beyond a deal that is as dead as a Norwegian Blue, crashing out or revoking...0 -
A Labour free vote would indeed be very sensible.Anazina said:Lab free vote Brexit idea seems eminently sensible.
A good idea would be to extend the plan to the whole house.
In fact, a vote free of the entire fuckwitted bunch would be extremely sensible as well. Let the mice and rats decide. They could hardly do worse...0 -
Oh they would not want to be too close to him, I am sure. But numbers are numbers. If they can keep the Tories out, or have to have some sort of agreement with the Tories who among them would do the latter?Casino_Royale said:
I think a chunk of Labour and LDs would be terrified.kle4 said:
Labour, the LDs, PC, Green, and the SNP. Not as a first option, obviously, but if a GE meant it was more Tory government or a Corbyn one?Casino_Royale said:
Who in the right mind would want Corbyn anywhere near power?Pulpstar said:290-299 bizarrely coming into play !
That'll be a vote of no confidence in Corbyn himself.
The SNP, PC and Greens would see opportunity but wouldn’t want to be tainted too much by association.0 -
Don't the SNP have a self-denying rule about not voting on purely English matters?Casino_Royale said:
I think a chunk of Labour and LDs would be terrified.kle4 said:
Labour, the LDs, PC, Green, and the SNP. Not as a first option, obviously, but if a GE meant it was more Tory government or a Corbyn one?Casino_Royale said:
Who in the right mind would want Corbyn anywhere near power?Pulpstar said:290-299 bizarrely coming into play !
That'll be a vote of no confidence in Corbyn himself.
The SNP, PC and Greens would see opportunity but wouldn’t want to be tainted too much by association.
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Spot on.ydoethur said:
A Labour free vote would indeed be very sensible.Anazina said:Lab free vote Brexit idea seems eminently sensible.
A good idea would be to extend the plan to the whole house.
In fact, a vote free of the entire fuckwitted bunch would be extremely sensible as well. Let the mice and rats decide. They could hardly do worse...
Surely this is the way forward?
What’s the point with whipping votes with the scale of recent rebellions anyway?
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Meanwhile, on the other channel:Foxy said:
It would only preach to the converted, not convert anyone, so go right ahead.kyf_100 said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRowLjb0x48TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's a second referendum, Leave just has to play this on loop for six weeks until the vote.
https://youtu.be/0xGt3QmRSZY
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I thought they'd junked that self imposed rule in the last parliament.No_Offence_Alan said:
Don't the SNP have a self-denying rule about not voting on purely English matters?Casino_Royale said:
I think a chunk of Labour and LDs would be terrified.kle4 said:
Labour, the LDs, PC, Green, and the SNP. Not as a first option, obviously, but if a GE meant it was more Tory government or a Corbyn one?Casino_Royale said:
Who in the right mind would want Corbyn anywhere near power?Pulpstar said:290-299 bizarrely coming into play !
That'll be a vote of no confidence in Corbyn himself.
The SNP, PC and Greens would see opportunity but wouldn’t want to be tainted too much by association.0 -
I think you've misunderstood what I'm saying...Anazina said:
Spot on.ydoethur said:
A Labour free vote would indeed be very sensible.Anazina said:Lab free vote Brexit idea seems eminently sensible.
A good idea would be to extend the plan to the whole house.
In fact, a vote free of the entire fuckwitted bunch would be extremely sensible as well. Let the mice and rats decide. They could hardly do worse...
Surely this is the way forward?
What’s the point with whipping votes with the scale of recent rebellions anyway?0 -
Tom Watson currently showing Labour MPs what they could have won...0
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On the other channel.. more clips of Cameron saying we'd obviously have to leave the single market.Harris_Tweed said:
Meanwhile, on the other channel:Foxy said:
It would only preach to the converted, not convert anyone, so go right ahead.kyf_100 said:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRowLjb0x48TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's a second referendum, Leave just has to play this on loop for six weeks until the vote.
youtu.be/0xGt3QmRSZY0 -
Yes, but they ignore it.No_Offence_Alan said:
Don't the SNP have a self-denying rule about not voting on purely English matters?Casino_Royale said:
I think a chunk of Labour and LDs would be terrified.kle4 said:
Labour, the LDs, PC, Green, and the SNP. Not as a first option, obviously, but if a GE meant it was more Tory government or a Corbyn one?Casino_Royale said:
Who in the right mind would want Corbyn anywhere near power?Pulpstar said:290-299 bizarrely coming into play !
That'll be a vote of no confidence in Corbyn himself.
The SNP, PC and Greens would see opportunity but wouldn’t want to be tainted too much by association.0 -
On;y when it suits themNo_Offence_Alan said:Don't the SNP have a self-denying rule about not voting on purely English matters?
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Michael Gove giving an excellent speech0
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Can we expect a kinder, gentler politics with her in charge? I doubt it...SouthamObserver said:Lump on Laura to succeed Corbyn.
twitter.com/spajw/status/1085609183339266048?s=210 -
Basically another day pissed away on a debate and result with a foregone conclusion that does nothing to further the Brexit debate.
I haven't seen such a waste of time since yesterday.0 -
A sensation most sensible people have about Gove as well.Scott_P said:0 -
They do, but it's strange how often purely English matters can be shown to have implications for Scotland.No_Offence_Alan said:
Don't the SNP have a self-denying rule about not voting on purely English matters?Casino_Royale said:
I think a chunk of Labour and LDs would be terrified.kle4 said:
Labour, the LDs, PC, Green, and the SNP. Not as a first option, obviously, but if a GE meant it was more Tory government or a Corbyn one?Casino_Royale said:
Who in the right mind would want Corbyn anywhere near power?Pulpstar said:290-299 bizarrely coming into play !
That'll be a vote of no confidence in Corbyn himself.
The SNP, PC and Greens would see opportunity but wouldn’t want to be tainted too much by association.
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I don't think your interpretation of FPTP is accurate or realistic. UKIP won a decent proportion of the vote in 2015 but got one seat! That seat was the product of a defection and incumbency is an asset worth a few thousand votes, which can be the difference between winning and losing. The SDP/Alliance in 1983 came within spitting distance of Labour in the popular vote but got only 10% of Labours seats. Added to the fact the Liberals were already established in many seats and there were activists spread over the UK. Any new party will be starting from scratch, they could get a reasonable proportion of the vote and No seats. FPTP is a direct obstacle to new parties and all a new party or parties will achieve is to skew seats from Labour to Tory or vice versa.Black_Rook said:
The time may have come for PR, but Parliament (as currently constituted, at the very least) will never back it. The two large parties won't want to give up on a majoritarian system whilst they can still benefit from it.IanB2 said:
It's flawed because Parliament isn't representative and because so many useless MPs sit with jobs for life in safe seats. Not to mention the Lords.kle4 said:
I'm depressed by many recent debates too, but I rather think that condemning the system itself as not fit for purpose is a proportionate reaction. Ultimately the present problem is MPs being brutally divided on the most critical issue of the day. Aspects of our system might well aggravate problems we have, but I don't see much to suggest the system itself is fundamentally flawed.oxfordsimon said:I have just watched a few contributions to this 'debate'
Creasy started off shouting and just got shriller as she went on - trying to be clever and just coming off as self-absorbed
No idea who Alison Thewlis is - but she is no orator. Most of the things she ranted about were Scottish matters that her own party could have addressed but haven't as the SNP are just obsessed with one issue.
What is the point of allowing 6 hours for pointless MPs to spew pointless nonsense? There is nothing to illuminate or elucidate. It is just posturing. And it does nothing to help anyone achieve anything.
I am far from convinced that our Parliamentary system is any longer fit for purpose. It certainly isn't working. Whether that is the system or the current inhabitants, I am not yet certain. But something needs to change.
On the other hand... they should bear in mind that FPTP may help to keep the prospect of future instability alive. After all, if issues like Brexit are decided by referendum then the winning side requires an absolute majority. If on the other hand, an insurgent party has a bit of luck in a General Election then, under FPTP, it can win control of Parliament with a third of the popular vote.0 -
Good grief. That doesn't at all smack of desperation.SouthamObserver said:Lump on Laura to succeed Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1085609183339266048?s=21
That would be like Theresa May grooming up Bill Cash.0 -
Cracking speech from Govey.0
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The SNP bend and break their own rules whenever it suits them.No_Offence_Alan said:
Don't the SNP have a self-denying rule about not voting on purely English matters?Casino_Royale said:
I think a chunk of Labour and LDs would be terrified.kle4 said:
Labour, the LDs, PC, Green, and the SNP. Not as a first option, obviously, but if a GE meant it was more Tory government or a Corbyn one?Casino_Royale said:
Who in the right mind would want Corbyn anywhere near power?Pulpstar said:290-299 bizarrely coming into play !
That'll be a vote of no confidence in Corbyn himself.
The SNP, PC and Greens would see opportunity but wouldn’t want to be tainted too much by association.0 -
Why is Gove summing up?
Pointer to anything?0 -
kle4 said:
Is rushing a referendum in 8 days a good idea? Practical considerations are secondary I would imagine. Particularly given the whinges that people did not know what they were voting for last time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Great.TheScreamingEagles said:
It will be a referendum between May's deal and No Deal.
Let's get on with it.0 -
My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.0 -
If it gets to a second referendum, who knows?TOPPING said:
What on earth are you talking about? It is the withdrawal agreement not the final trading relationship.Casino_Royale said:
I see no point in BINO. If that was on the table versus Remain, I’d spoil my ballet.SandyRentool said:
Norwegian Blue-Pluseek said:
It may be the only deal in town but how do you get 116+ MPs to change their minds when the EU aren't going to change anything?TOPPING said:
Except... the Deal is the only game in town. What a huge waste of time waiting for the HoC to realise that.eek said:
It may happen if the risk of the Tory party being destroyed by a No Deal exit becomes too high a risk.Anorak said:
That would be worth it just to see the froth explosion. The gammons would shift into beetroots, and then aubergines.FF43 said:
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rBlack_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
Not going to happen though, too many people lashed to their particular masts to facilitate it.
As I said earlier the 2 options are revoke or No Deal - given that the Deal has been so comprehensively rejected I can see zero other options available...
So what options are left on the table beyond a deal that is as dead as a Norwegian Blue, crashing out or revoking...0 -
Said it before - saying it again.
Gove for PM.0 -
He is doing his leadership credentials no harmrottenborough said:My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.0 -
The bit about Friends of Israel was very clever.Big_G_NorthWales said:Michael Gove giving an excellent speech
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20 Tories will now back the VONC to install him tomorrowBig_G_NorthWales said:
He is doing his leadership credentials no harmrottenborough said:My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.
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It wouldn’t have been a problem getting the remaining legislation through with those numbers.williamglenn said:
If the meaningful vote had passed last night, they'd still have needed to get the legislation through without DUP support before exit day, and we'd then have been plunged into further divisive negotiations with no consensus on the negotiating position.Casino_Royale said:If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.
Something to remember over the coming months.
And the negotiating positions - on both sides - would have been agreed in principle via the political declaration, which i thought actually was rather fair.
All history now, of course.0 -
Shouty and ranty in the eye of the beholder obviously.rottenborough said:My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.0 -
What the blooming heck is the point of a statement like this?https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1085598650133286912?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1085598650133286912&ref_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/46874049
Oh, it needs to be dealt with? What new information, I guess May had no idea until now.0 -
If the Labour Party did not know why they should get rid of Magic Grandpa, well they do now. The Tory's should do this week in week out0
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I think he is probably a Marmite politician. Personally, I think he is untrustworthy, shifty and insincere.rottenborough said:My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.0 -
A brief example of what British politics would be like if Brexit wasn't happening.TGOHF said:Said it before - saying it again.
Gove for PM.0 -
I only caught the end of that speech by Gove, but he really wound up the Labour benches.0
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kle4 said:
What the blooming heck is the point of a statement like this?https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1085598650133286912?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1085598650133286912&ref_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/46874049
Oh, it needs to be dealt with? What new information, I guess May had no idea until now.0 -
Exactly why lefties don't want a quick Brexit IMHO - too much sunlight on Jezza.williamglenn said:
A brief example of what British politics would be like if Brexit wasn't happening.TGOHF said:Said it before - saying it again.
Gove for PM.0 -
The only really black mark against him was him pulling his support for Boris post the Brexit ref - that was really quite poor form. I think there was some suggestion of the influence of Mrs Gove there. If that was the case then I hope she either doesn't intervene in the future, or he doesn't listen if she does.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is doing his leadership credentials no harmrottenborough said:My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.0 -
Meaningless vote under way!0
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If Gove has been PM I think the deal would been better but with still a hardcore or 30 or so Brexit rebels and probably up to 20 new bastards.TGOHF said:Said it before - saying it again.
Gove for PM.
However, he might have been able to reach out more to the DUP and to Labour waverers.0 -
His disastrous exam reforms are not a black mark against him?Omnium said:
The only really black mark against him was him pulling his support for Boris post the Brexit ref - that was really quite poor form. I think there was some suggestion of the influence of Mrs Gove there. If that was the case then I hope she either doesn't intervene in the future, or he doesn't listen if she does.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is doing his leadership credentials no harmrottenborough said:My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.0 -
That was what they did at GE 2017 wasn't it?ralphmalph said:If the Labour Party did not know why they should get rid of Magic Grandpa, well they do now. The Tory's should do this week in week out
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The quickest way to Brexit is Brexit in name only.TGOHF said:
Exactly why lefties don't want a quick Brexit IMHO - too much sunlight on Jezza.williamglenn said:
A brief example of what British politics would be like if Brexit wasn't happening.TGOHF said:Said it before - saying it again.
Gove for PM.0 -
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My favourite thing about the Watson speech is, well, ....oxfordsimon said:What is Watson on?
FFS
if looks could ...0 -
There’s an even quicker one: support the Deal that’s already on the table.williamglenn said:
The quickest way to Brexit is Brexit in name only.TGOHF said:
Exactly why lefties don't want a quick Brexit IMHO - too much sunlight on Jezza.williamglenn said:
A brief example of what British politics would be like if Brexit wasn't happening.TGOHF said:Said it before - saying it again.
Gove for PM.0 -
Final book:
<= 299
-£32.80
300-309
£123.94
310-319
-£101.80
320-329
-£551.60
330+
-£32.800 -
Time to let it go.Casino_Royale said:
There’s an even quicker one: support the Deal that’s already on the table.williamglenn said:
The quickest way to Brexit is Brexit in name only.TGOHF said:
Exactly why lefties don't want a quick Brexit IMHO - too much sunlight on Jezza.williamglenn said:
A brief example of what British politics would be like if Brexit wasn't happening.TGOHF said:Said it before - saying it again.
Gove for PM.0 -
It is clear that TM will concentrate on the ERG and the DUP as there are upto 110 votes to add to yesterdays if they can be satisfiedkle4 said:What the blooming heck is the point of a statement like this?https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1085598650133286912?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1085598650133286912&ref_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/46874049
Oh, it needs to be dealt with? What new information, I guess May had no idea until now.
Of course TM has to indicate she wants to talk to all sides but of course by doing that she can assess the strength of support against the ERG and use that to make a case for the ERG and DUP to moderate their demands0 -
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Can that happen before March 29th ?williamglenn said:
The quickest way to Brexit is Brexit in name only.TGOHF said:
Exactly why lefties don't want a quick Brexit IMHO - too much sunlight on Jezza.williamglenn said:
A brief example of what British politics would be like if Brexit wasn't happening.TGOHF said:Said it before - saying it again.
Gove for PM.0 -
That ship has sailed.Casino_Royale said:
There’s an even quicker one: support the Deal that’s already on the table.williamglenn said:
The quickest way to Brexit is Brexit in name only.TGOHF said:
Exactly why lefties don't want a quick Brexit IMHO - too much sunlight on Jezza.williamglenn said:
A brief example of what British politics would be like if Brexit wasn't happening.TGOHF said:Said it before - saying it again.
Gove for PM.0 -
He’s a massive contradiction... intelligent and occasionally witty but seemingly lacking charisma, massively liberal reformer on prisons but absolutely bowl-of-cold-sick to liberal educationalists. I guess those who want to like him see the good stuff, those who don’t see the bad stuff. Those of us who see more politics than most probably see both and don’t know what they think.The_Taxman said:
I think he is probably a Marmite politician. Personally, I think he is untrustworthy, shifty and insincere.rottenborough said:My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.
That said, I bet most of the people behind him were wishing TM had managed an ounce of that passion in some of her performances.0 -
Why? He's right and it's coming back.kle4 said:
Time to let it go.Casino_Royale said:
There’s an even quicker one: support the Deal that’s already on the table.williamglenn said:
The quickest way to Brexit is Brexit in name only.TGOHF said:
Exactly why lefties don't want a quick Brexit IMHO - too much sunlight on Jezza.williamglenn said:
A brief example of what British politics would be like if Brexit wasn't happening.TGOHF said:Said it before - saying it again.
Gove for PM.0 -
Have heard the same, and there's movement towards a/the customs union as well
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/10856083600016302090 -
They still haven't recovered from schools being run for the consumer not the producer..Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Indeed. The ERG have a lot to answer for. As bad as Grieve and his ilk.Casino_Royale said:If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.
Something to remember over the coming months.0 -
How does that help unless she can deliver on any of their demands? Even if we assume they will accept something less than everything they demand (a dangerous game with the DUP) she doesn't seem able to give them anything, since what they want is in the gift of the EU, who are in remain backing mood.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is clear that TM will concentrate on the ERG and the DUP as there are upto 110 votes to add to yesterdays if they can be satisfiedkle4 said:What the blooming heck is the point of a statement like this?https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1085598650133286912?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1085598650133286912&ref_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/46874049
Oh, it needs to be dealt with? What new information, I guess May had no idea until now.
Of course TM has to indicate she wants to talk to all sides but of course by doing that she can assess the strength of support against the ERG and use that to make a case for the ERG and DUP to moderate their demands0 -
Oh, he's made mistakes. I don't know the detail of the issue you raise, so I'll just take your word for it that it was a mistake. Perhaps it's a mistake too far for you. Mistakes though are one thing, and acting dishonorably is another. I'd rather avoid having as PM anyone that has ever acted that way. I'd certainly not exclude people that have made mistakes though.ydoethur said:
His disastrous exam reforms are not a black mark against him?Omnium said:
The only really black mark against him was him pulling his support for Boris post the Brexit ref - that was really quite poor form. I think there was some suggestion of the influence of Mrs Gove there. If that was the case then I hope she either doesn't intervene in the future, or he doesn't listen if she does.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is doing his leadership credentials no harmrottenborough said:My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.0 -
Don't you mean sunk?Foxy said:
That ship has sailed.Casino_Royale said:
There’s an even quicker one: support the Deal that’s already on the table.williamglenn said:
The quickest way to Brexit is Brexit in name only.TGOHF said:
Exactly why lefties don't want a quick Brexit IMHO - too much sunlight on Jezza.williamglenn said:
A brief example of what British politics would be like if Brexit wasn't happening.TGOHF said:Said it before - saying it again.
Gove for PM.0 -
From Denmark this is all looking very crazy but the Danish papers are basically saying there's no plan B from Europe and as far as Denmark is concerned no deal is now the expected outcome.
So well done hardcore remainers/leavers - congrats on completely buggering up future relations with the EU.
On a personal level I am now getting fed up of people. including at my daughter's nursery asking me what will happen now. Danes are VERY fond of the UK and I have met nobody wanting to 'punish' the UK - they are just baffled by the refusal of MPs to sign up to the only deal that won't involve chaos.
Good barnstorming speech by Gove at the end but really this pantomime needs to end and a decision needs to be made - revoke A50 or sign up to May's deal - anything else is beyond stupid.0 -
It's true, and I wish it would occur, but it's dead, dismembered and its ashes sprinkled to the winds. It's time to try other things, even stupid things. But they don't even know how to begin talking about that yet.TOPPING said:
Why? He's right and it's coming back.kle4 said:
Time to let it go.Casino_Royale said:
There’s an even quicker one: support the Deal that’s already on the table.williamglenn said:
The quickest way to Brexit is Brexit in name only.TGOHF said:
Exactly why lefties don't want a quick Brexit IMHO - too much sunlight on Jezza.williamglenn said:
A brief example of what British politics would be like if Brexit wasn't happening.TGOHF said:Said it before - saying it again.
Gove for PM.0 -
The more likely it looks like a consensus for a customs union will prevail, the more likely it is that one of the hardcore Brexiteers will throw in the towel and say we'd be better off with Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Have heard the same, and there's movement towards a/the customs union as well
0 -
Christ. I've been wibbling for weeks (or is it months?) that the only way to get a deal through parliament is to get Labour on board. Finally the government (but not the PM?) has woken up.TheScreamingEagles said:Have heard the same, and there's movement towards a/the customs union as well
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/10856083600016302090 -
I were the ERG I’d strip to to the waist, dive in, and swim like hell after it.Foxy said:
That ship has sailed.Casino_Royale said:
There’s an even quicker one: support the Deal that’s already on the table.williamglenn said:
The quickest way to Brexit is Brexit in name only.TGOHF said:
Exactly why lefties don't want a quick Brexit IMHO - too much sunlight on Jezza.williamglenn said:
A brief example of what British politics would be like if Brexit wasn't happening.TGOHF said:Said it before - saying it again.
Gove for PM.0 -
Outgoing leaders rarely get to appoint their successor, not least because they go when they have failed.SouthamObserver said:Lump on Laura to succeed Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1085609183339266048?s=21
Watson was good.0 -
Thought you were an ultra hard no-dealer? Have I misunderstood?MaxPB said:
Indeed. The ERG have a lot to answer for. As bad as Grieve and his ilk.Casino_Royale said:If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.
Something to remember over the coming months.0 -
But we do not know how the next few weeks negotiations in the HOC and in the EU will work outkle4 said:
How does that help unless she can deliver on any of their demands? Even if we assume they will accept something less than everything they demand (a dangerous game with the DUP) she doesn't seem able to give them anything, since what they want is in the gift of the EU, who are in remain backing mood.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is clear that TM will concentrate on the ERG and the DUP as there are upto 110 votes to add to yesterdays if they can be satisfiedkle4 said:What the blooming heck is the point of a statement like this?https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1085598650133286912?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1085598650133286912&ref_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/46874049
Oh, it needs to be dealt with? What new information, I guess May had no idea until now.
Of course TM has to indicate she wants to talk to all sides but of course by doing that she can assess the strength of support against the ERG and use that to make a case for the ERG and DUP to moderate their demands0 -
I don’t think he’s going to dance.TheScreamingEagles said:Have heard the same, and there's movement towards a/the customs union as well
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/10856083600016302090 -
Not in the slightest, I think some wires have been crossed. The deal was lamentable, but still the best of the options available.Casino_Royale said:
Thought you were an ultra hard no-dealer? Have I misunderstood?MaxPB said:
Indeed. The ERG have a lot to answer for. As bad as Grieve and his ilk.Casino_Royale said:If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.
Something to remember over the coming months.0 -
Most of the hardcore Brexiteers aren’t really serious about Brexit.williamglenn said:
The more likely it looks like a consensus for a customs union will prevail, the more likely it is that one of the hardcore Brexiteers will throw in the towel and say we'd be better off with Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Have heard the same, and there's movement towards a/the customs union as well
0 -
That's not the same as being unable to make a guess about the likelihood of certain options. The EU totally u-turning and opening up the WA and removing elements they have insisted are key, when they seem to believe, not without reason, that we will remain rather than no deal, does not seem very likely.Big_G_NorthWales said:
But we do not know how the next few weeks negotiations in the HOC and in the EU will work outkle4 said:
How does that help unless she can deliver on any of their demands? Even if we assume they will accept something less than everything they demand (a dangerous game with the DUP) she doesn't seem able to give them anything, since what they want is in the gift of the EU, who are in remain backing mood.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is clear that TM will concentrate on the ERG and the DUP as there are upto 110 votes to add to yesterdays if they can be satisfiedkle4 said:What the blooming heck is the point of a statement like this?https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1085598650133286912?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1085598650133286912&ref_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/46874049
Oh, it needs to be dealt with? What new information, I guess May had no idea until now.
Of course TM has to indicate she wants to talk to all sides but of course by doing that she can assess the strength of support against the ERG and use that to make a case for the ERG and DUP to moderate their demands0 -
Excellent way of undermining Jezza - reach out to non Jezza Labour types.0
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He's rendered all exam grades little better than guesses, due to deliberately over-ruling expert advice on content and assessment. He has also forced syllabi that are almost unteachable on us.Omnium said:
Oh, he's made mistakes. I don't know the detail of the issue you raise, so I'll just take your word for it that it was a mistake. Perhaps it's a mistake too far for you. Mistakes though are one thing, and acting dishonorably is another. I'd rather avoid having as PM anyone that has ever acted that way. I'd certainly not exclude people that have made mistakes though.ydoethur said:
His disastrous exam reforms are not a black mark against him?Omnium said:
The only really black mark against him was him pulling his support for Boris post the Brexit ref - that was really quite poor form. I think there was some suggestion of the influence of Mrs Gove there. If that was the case then I hope she either doesn't intervene in the future, or he doesn't listen if she does.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is doing his leadership credentials no harmrottenborough said:My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.
Just topped up a couple more quid on him.
And he did it so far as can be judged (and despite his many claims) not because he wanted to improve grades, but because he wanted to prove he could. I'd call that 'acting dishonourably.'
With regard to this speech - which I haven't seen - what he says has never been an issue. I've always agreed with his outline plans on administrative reform, course content and assessment patterns. But I judge people by what they do, not what they say.
On the basis of what he has done, I prefer a serial liar, racist, terrorist supporter and apologist for paedophilia to him. I think that tells you all you need to know about his electoral appeal.0 -
Kerching0
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Fair enough. I thought it was an acceptable compromise. I thought the future political declaration was genuinely fair.MaxPB said:
Not in the slightest, I think some wires have been crossed. The deal was lamentable, but still the best of the options available.Casino_Royale said:
Thought you were an ultra hard no-dealer? Have I misunderstood?MaxPB said:
Indeed. The ERG have a lot to answer for. As bad as Grieve and his ilk.Casino_Royale said:If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.
Something to remember over the coming months.0 -
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