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TGOHF said:

Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

I think so.

The only real chance of a vonc passing is a significant defection to an opposition party, and no sign of that.

TGOHF said:

Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

Yes

AnneJGP said:

It's unlikely there will be a big change-over of most MPs, even with a GE.

Is there any mechanism for discharging the whole lot and starting with a complete set of fresh faces, like dismissing a jury that can't reach a verdict?

control alt delete - I do it every morning and it always works. Yesterday's gone.

Mr. Rook, Deal/Remain would be a win for Remain. I'd be looking at odds on a 10 point margin.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Black_Rook said:

FF43 said:

glw said:

If nothing else we have learnt that out Parliament doesn't work very well and is not all that representative of the general public.

Put to a public vote I wouldn't be surprised if the public rejected "May's Deal" by a similar margin to that in the HoC. Despite what Mrs May says, her deal is what essentially no-one voted for in June 2016.

I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.

The electorate voted for a hung parliament, albeit unintentionally. The will-o-the-people is therefore what happened last night, i.e. no enthusiasm for Brexit. I'll get my coat!

Good try. There is an appetite for a hard brexit and to remain and indeed for a fair brexit

The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

notme2 said:

Foxy said:

TGOHF said:

Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

I think so.

The only real chance of a vonc passing is a significant defection to an opposition party, and no sign of that.

Why would you want to defect to a party that considers your mere existence and your values to be the personification of pure evil (Richard Burgon edition).

Why did your mind immediately spring to Labour ?!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.

Black_Rook said:

FF43 said:

glw said:

If nothing else we have learnt that out Parliament doesn't work very well and is not all that representative of the general public.

Put to a public vote I wouldn't be surprised if the public rejected "May's Deal" by a similar margin to that in the HoC. Despite what Mrs May says, her deal is what essentially no-one voted for in June 2016.

I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.

It depends on how much people focus on whether the deal is any good or on re-running Leave/Remain as a point of principle. People voted the way they did, I believe, mostly for the following reasons:

1. They think membership of the EU is a good thing for the UK
2. They want to be masters of their own ship
3. They don't like the EU very much and want it to go away.
4. They want to reduce immigration.

The Deal is more or less negative for the first three categories and is vague on the fourth.

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.

Is it possible to apply an amendment to a VONC?

AlastairMeeks said:

I did point out John Woodcock as one to watch tonight.

Has he said/done something?

TGOHF said:

Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.

At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.

grabcocque said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is ridiculous.

My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.

I tell you what, when the Brexit showtrials start and there are death squads rounding up and disappearing suspected leave collaborators, I promise I'll let you hide in my loft.

Dont fall for it, he lives in a 2nd floor flat, he doesn't have a loft.

Pulpstar said:

Still trying to work out why the Noes got 309 and not 310 in the Queens speech to open parliament..

The 2017 QS?

TGOHF said:

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.

Not much of an offer - assumes Corbyn wants to win the VONC...

That would mean he would have to do a meaningful job for the first time in his life. The only lazier person in parliament than "2Es" is David Davis

Nigel_Foremain said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Black_Rook said:

FF43 said:

glw said:

If nothing else we have learnt that out Parliament doesn't work very well and is not all that representative of the general public.

Put to a public vote I wouldn't be surprised if the public rejected "May's Deal" by a similar margin to that in the HoC. Despite what Mrs May says, her deal is what essentially no-one voted for in June 2016.

I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.

The electorate voted for a hung parliament, albeit unintentionally. The will-o-the-people is therefore what happened last night, i.e. no enthusiasm for Brexit. I'll get my coat!

Good try. There is an appetite for a hard brexit and to remain and indeed for a fair brexit

Not by any clear majority though. The fun thing is this. The electorate had a referendum. A small majority voted on one of the simplistic binary choices. Some months later, the electorate had a GE and failed to endorse the one party that most advocated that choice.Therefore the will-o-the-people is about as clear as a 1950s smog that occupies the average Brexiteers nostalgia.

On that we can agree

Woodcock almost certainly takes us to 309 I think ?

AlastairMeeks said:

I did point out John Woodcock as one to watch tonight.

AlastairMeeks said:

I did point out John Woodcock as one to watch tonight.

Frank Field?

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.

I am not sure they do. They could go for a "plague on both your houses" abstention, unless Labour signed up to a referendum etc. It would make Labour MPs very uncomfortable I suspect.

The Labour MP Tulip Siddiq, who delayed her caesarean section so that she could vote in last night’s division, and who had to be taken through the lobby in a wheelchair, will be “nodded through” tonight.

Dunno why she couldn't have chosen that method yesterday, sheer grandstanding I guess.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Found it
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1085583705463291904?s=21

Cock by name, cock by nature.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

Still trying to work out why the Noes got 309 and not 310 in the Queens speech to open parliament..

Does this help:
https://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=2017-06-29&number=4&display=allpossible&sort=name

At least 3 nonvoters on the Lab side

George Howarth is our mystery man..

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.

20 ERG plus DUP MPs signal they will abstain, and the LDs and/or the SNP can choose to force Labour to commit to a second referendum in exchange for voting down the government.

Endillion said:

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.

20 ERG plus DUP MPs signal they will abstain, and the LDs and/or the SNP can choose to force Labour to commit to a second referendum in exchange for voting down the government.

What planet did you come in from? Planet Momentum or Planet Putin?

notme2 said:

TGOHF said:

One can't help but note the benign chugging along of the economy nicely with the government distracted by other events...

Its as if there might be something in all that "if the government aint doing something, it aint buggering something up".

Yes, one of the very few good things about Brexit is that it stops the government faffing around with various pieces of legislation, thus causing needless admin for businesses for zero benefit.

David_Evershed said:

TGOHF said:

Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.

At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.

May's policy was her Deal, is her Deal and will be her Deal.

Doesn't mean that there won't necessarily be an outright rebellion at some point, but certainly not today.

Barnesian said:

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.

Why? They should not attend the debate and should abstain on the grounds that Corbyn is playing games and wasting precious parliamentary time.

Rebecca Long Odds Bailey (h/t Pulpstar) was on the telly only the other day saying she wouldn't favour voncs when the Opposition stood precious little chance of winning them.

Hence the question why we have wasted yet another day with this evening's meaningless charade.

Black_Rook said:

I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.

I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.

Not that anything is, IMO, and thank heaven for that. Putting aside the intractable problems of question and timing etc, I do not think there is the general will or, you know, energy to go through all of that rigmarole again.

No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.

I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Endillion said:

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The suggestion the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid are going to tell Corbyn that they will not support any further vonc unless he backs a second referendum is very clever politics

I wonder, on the assumption that the vonc falls tonight, that they will make that policy statement immediately after

That threat lacks any credibility. They have no choice but to support a VONC if Corbyn calls one.

20 ERG plus DUP MPs signal they will abstain, and the LDs and/or the SNP can choose to force Labour to commit to a second referendum in exchange for voting down the government.

What planet did you come in from? Planet Momentum or Planet Putin?

It's a hypothetical repeated VoNC in which the other opposition parties can choose not to support Labour so as to try and force a second referendum. Not a likely scenario for this evening.

Sean_F said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Trump wants Brexit, Putin wants Brexit, lefties want Brexit. Brexiteers are clearly not proper Tories

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-left-should-champion-brexit

The more old-fashioned radical socialists do want Brexit (and many of them on the Continent, like Melanchon) are anti-EU. They see it as a capitalist club, which favours big business over trade unions. That's pretty much the view of the Labour Leave campaign in the UK.

The Green Left, and the Centre-Left overwhelmingly support the EU, because they favour open borders, and see it as a curb on the right wingers in their own countries. They aren't terribly interested in trade unions.

Indeed. The EU was a very effective check against the excesses of a Corbyn Mcdonnell -type government. As well as making such a government more likely, Brexiteers have given a Corbyn government the green light to fuck up the economy even further

Nigel_Foremain said:

Recidivist said:

I still have to pinch myself that the government is actively trying to take us out of the customs union. You can make an argument for anything, but it just seems totally deranged to leave something so advantageous.

Well quite! Not many governments do something that they know all their advisors are telling them will damage the economy, unless they are extreme socialists or their name is Robert Mugabe

So you've forgotten about Cammo/Ozzie's austerity then?

kinabalu said:

I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.

If we get to the point of R2 then I would be astounded if even remainer mp's had such contempt for voters as to include May's deal.

Pulpstar said:

Hoyle and Winterton best not vote !

Am trying to find out if Janet Fookes voted in the 1993 Confidence Vote.

If she did means Hoyle should vote tonight.

SandyRentool said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Recidivist said:

I still have to pinch myself that the government is actively trying to take us out of the customs union. You can make an argument for anything, but it just seems totally deranged to leave something so advantageous.

Well quite! Not many governments do something that they know all their advisors are telling them will damage the economy, unless they are extreme socialists or their name is Robert Mugabe

So you've forgotten about Cammo/Ozzie's austerity then?

Nope, but it is not in anything like the same category, as there are many who believed it to be an economic necessity.

Sean_F said:

Black_Rook said:

David_Evershed said:

TGOHF said:

Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.

At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.

May's policy was her Deal, is her Deal and will be her Deal.

Doesn't mean that there won't necessarily be an outright rebellion at some point, but certainly not today.

If the Conservatives split, it will be interesting to see where the fault line runs.

Will it be between 100 hard Brexiteers and the rest, or 50 anti-No Dealers and the rest?

I saw a comparison which showed the correlation between those advocating No Deal and those opposed to same sex marriage.

The split is much deeper than on the EU.

British politics hasn't so much boxed itself into a corner as it has wedged itself into a U-bend.

HURRAH.

https://twitter.com/TJHWetherill/status/1085591435385208833

solarflare said:

British politics hasn't so much boxed itself into a corner as it has wedged itself into a U-bend.

And unblocking it would just release a ton of shit.

Nigel_Foremain said:

SandyRentool said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Recidivist said:

I still have to pinch myself that the government is actively trying to take us out of the customs union. You can make an argument for anything, but it just seems totally deranged to leave something so advantageous.

Well quite! Not many governments do something that they know all their advisors are telling them will damage the economy, unless they are extreme socialists or their name is Robert Mugabe

So you've forgotten about Cammo/Ozzie's austerity then?

Nope, but it is not in anything like the same category, as there are many who believed it to be an economic necessity.

You truly believe that? It was all just a scam to stiff the little guy while simultaneously featherbedding the fat cats.

Time after time they are able to take enough people for mugs to get away with it.

solarflare said:

British politics hasn't so much boxed itself into a corner as it has wedged itself into a U-bend.

Hardly. U-bends are useful.

BannedInParis said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The Labour MP Tulip Siddiq, who delayed her caesarean section so that she could vote in last night’s division, and who had to be taken through the lobby in a wheelchair, will be “nodded through” tonight.

Dunno why she couldn't have chosen that method yesterday, sheer grandstanding I guess.

I know that.
You know that.
The only person who didn't seem to know that was Jez.

I see no reason why he wouldn't. But it makes for a better story.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Hoyle and Winterton best not vote !

Am trying to find out if Janet Fookes voted in the 1993 Confidence Vote.

If she did means Hoyle should vote tonight.

It is ridiculously hard to find out who votes which way in these votes online.

Why not ask a Deputy Speaker?

"SNP denies reports it will not back repeated motions of no confidence"

So fake news?

David_Evershed said:

May's problem is with the Withdrawal Agreement not the political declaration.

Adopting Norway, Canada etc make no difference to the Withdrawal Agreement.

The Withdrawal Agreement should have been negotiated with a Free Trade agreement so that the Irish brder issue would not arise. But it wasn't.

The only solutions to the Irish backstop issue are either

a) Remain

b) Leave without an agreement and then negotiate a free trade agreement alongside a new withdrawal agreement. Neither the Irish nor the British will introduce checks at the border in the meantime.

Ummm - how do I put this?

If we leave without a deal, we don't need a Withdrawal Agreement. The Withdrawal Agreement is solely designed to smooth the process of leaving. Once we have withdrawn, with or without a withdrawal agreement, we can if we and the EU agree (which is something else I think too many people are overlooking) separately negotiate a new free trade agreement.

The problem is we cannot leave without either some of withdrawal agreement, or massive disruption, which means it is slightly unfortunate that the third rate Oedipus complex sufferers in Parliament have just rejected the withdrawal agreement.

Nairobi

BBC reporting

It is understood a member of the British SAS - who was in Kenya as part of a training team - was involved in rescuing hostages.

The armed special forces soldier entered the hotel complex to help rescue the trapped civilians and, according to a source, fired his weapon.

He is believed to have been working alongside members of the US Special Forces, who were already in Nairobi when the attack took place.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Found it
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1085583705463291904?s=21

Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:

Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes

Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes

Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?

Sean_F said:

Black_Rook said:

David_Evershed said:

TGOHF said:

Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.

At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.

May's policy was her Deal, is her Deal and will be her Deal.

Doesn't mean that there won't necessarily be an outright rebellion at some point, but certainly not today.

If the Conservatives split, it will be interesting to see where the fault line runs.

Will it be between 100 hard Brexiteers and the rest, or 50 anti-No Dealers and the rest?

Depends very much on circumstances: realignment (very unlikely) could lead to a mass departure of MPs; an act of desperation by the Hard Remainers (a little more likely, if the Parliamentary stalemate continues) could involve only a small handful, although they'd need at least ten MPs willing to vote down the Government to give themselves a reasonable chance of success.

It's not inconceivable that the ERG wing could peel off if May's resolve collapses, but there's no sign of that yet and besides they'd also need to be desperate before they'd contemplate breaking away: Brexit as an aim and ideology is widespread in the party membership and they have an excellent chance of seeing a sympathiser take over as leader when May finally goes.

ydoethur said:

David_Evershed said:

May's problem is with the Withdrawal Agreement not the political declaration.

Adopting Norway, Canada etc make no difference to the Withdrawal Agreement.

The Withdrawal Agreement should have been negotiated with a Free Trade agreement so that the Irish brder issue would not arise. But it wasn't.

The only solutions to the Irish backstop issue are either

a) Remain

b) Leave without an agreement and then negotiate a free trade agreement alongside a new withdrawal agreement. Neither the Irish nor the British will introduce checks at the border in the meantime.

Ummm - how do I put this?

If we leave without a deal, we don't need a Withdrawal Agreement. The Withdrawal Agreement is solely designed to smooth the process of leaving. Once we have withdrawn, with or without a withdrawal agreement, we can if we and the EU agree (which is something else I think too many people are overlooking) separately negotiate a new free trade agreement.

The problem is we cannot leave without either some of withdrawal agreement, or massive disruption, which means it is slightly unfortunate that the third rate Oedipus complex sufferers in Parliament have just rejected the withdrawal agreement.

David, like his namesake Davis, is thick as mince.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/99971/david-davis-criticised-over-brexit-transition-period-gaffe