politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair a March 29th UK EU exit now just a 15% chance whils

First!

Mr. B2, I demand a second thread, so the will of PB can be made known now that all the facts are in the public domain.

The second referendum prices haven't changed much recently.

The only 2 outcomes I can see at the moment are us crashing out or us revoking...

GIN1138 said:

I've never placed a political bet in my life (so why have I been hanging out on here for 13 years you ask? ) But I must say given No Deal Brexit is the default option for 29th March I am tempted to place £50 on Yes UK To Leave On 29th March!

You'd win £270 if you were right. But I wouldn't be tempted if I were you. It would be sad to lose £50 on your first ever bet.

Leaving between July and December this year to win £180 I think is a better value bet.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.

She is concentrating on the confidence vote until that is over she continues to try to appeal to all! I watched the tedious PMQ's today and my abiding impression was that she was oscillating between the factions. This has got to come to a massive breaking point, what surprises me is every time we think the crunch is coming into view: something defers it that little bit longer!

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.

It won't be up to her.

grabcocque said:

I'm willing to believe there's a majority in Parliament for Norway+, but it's nearly impossible to achieve because May is autistic, Corbyn is trying to maximise chaos, and the ERG will resign the whip and crash her government rather than let it happen.

The issue with a Norway+ deal, even if our Parliament passed it; would the other countries want to be tied to us when we are obviously as nutty as a squirrel in a nutella factory?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan

Why would any other country trust us to be in a deal with them based on the way our government and parliament have acted through this whole thing?

Mr. kle4, she'll be bringing a Plan B to Parliament on Monday. Unless she's been defenestrated beforehand, of course.

This is ridiculous.

My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

No deal is the default. Its where we end up on March 29th unless something changes.

May doesn't want a second referendum because if remain win, it's the end of the Tory party. I'll certainly not be voting for them for a long, long time and I doubt I'm the only one.

She doesn't want to call a general election because there is a good chance she will either lose or end up in an even worse position than before. The polls mean nothing. A Corbyn pivot to a second referendum position could easily give him a majority.

So where does that leave us? With running down the clock. With a game of chicken to see who will blink first. The closer we get to March 29th with no deal in place, the more appealing May's deal looks. Perhaps she's betting enough MPs will be willing to back her deal at five minutes to midnight to avoid a hard Brexit to get her over the line. Or perhaps her gambit will fail. Either way, at better than 5/1 I'm putting a few quid on us leaving on March 29th.

grabcocque said:

I'm willing to believe there's a majority in Parliament for Norway+, but it's nearly impossible to achieve because May is autistic, Corbyn is trying to maximise chaos, and the ERG will resign the whip and crash her government rather than let it happen.

If there is a Parliamentary majority for a negotiated solution, yet that self-same cohort of MPs permits a No Deal that they're terrified of to happen by default (allowing Jacob Rees-Mogg and Arlene Foster to triumph over the lot of them in the process,) then they might just as well take a running jump into the Thames with pockets full of lead weights.

A purer example of perfect uselessness can scarcely be contemplated.

grabcocque said:

The_Taxman said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.

She is concentrating on the confidence vote until that is over she continues to try to appeal to all! I watched the tedious PMQ's today and my abiding impression was that she was oscillating between the factions. This has got to come to a massive breaking point, what surprises me is every time we think the crunch is coming into view: something defers it that little bit longer!

She has to have a plan B by Monday. Then the House gets to amend it and vote on it.

That's gonna be fun.

Indeed, I think she looks at every extra day in power as a bonus. I suspect she conflates the national interest with her own. This is not a way to run a Government or Country.

I wonder if she is going to surpass Spencer Perceval?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_tenure

kyf_100 said:

No deal is the default. Its where we end up on March 29th unless something changes.

May doesn't want a second referendum because if remain win, it's the end of the Tory party. I'll certainly not be voting for them for a long, long time and I doubt I'm the only one.

She doesn't want to call a general election because there is a good chance she will either lose or end up in an even worse position than before. The polls mean nothing. A Corbyn pivot to a second referendum position could easily give him a majority.

So where does that leave us? With running down the clock. With a game of chicken to see who will blink first. The closer we get to March 29th with no deal in place, the more appealing May's deal looks. Perhaps she's betting enough MPs will be willing to back her deal at five minutes to midnight to avoid a hard Brexit to get her over the line. Or perhaps her gambit will fail. Either way, at better than 5/1 I'm putting a few quid on us leaving on March 29th.

My logic too.

May will survive.

Today she has ruled out A50 revocation and a #peoplesvote.

A50 extension would only be for a GE or referendum.

So it looks like either No Deal or a last minute repeat of last night.

Leaving 29/3 looks good value.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.

Her husband is an Investment Fund manager. It's a no-brainer.

grabcocque said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is ridiculous.

My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.

I tell you what, when the Brexit showtrials start and there are death squads rounding up and disappearing suspected leave collaborators, I promise I'll let you hide in my loft.

I think you've got the wrong idea who is going to be undertaking those show trials.....

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is ridiculous.

My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.

Typical Leaver. You don’t like it up you.

People like you have ruined the party and inflict untold damage on the country, worst of all inflict a Corbyn premiership.

A period of quiet reflection from you be apt.

Never mind Brexit, this will cheer everyone who delivers leaflets;
https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2019-01-16/mps-bid-to-ban-low-level-letterboxes-gets-stamp-of-approval/

Lots of MPs still wanting to debate the Brexit deal and not the VONC/VNOC/VCON

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is ridiculous.

My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.

Typical Leaver. You don’t like it up you.

People like you have ruined the party and inflict untold damage on the country, worst of all inflict a Corbyn premiership.

A period of quiet reflection from you be apt.

LoL @ chance of 'quiet reflection'

Mr. Me, yes. But there will be no cookies outside the EU.

The_Taxman said:

grabcocque said:

The_Taxman said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.

She is concentrating on the confidence vote until that is over she continues to try to appeal to all! I watched the tedious PMQ's today and my abiding impression was that she was oscillating between the factions. This has got to come to a massive breaking point, what surprises me is every time we think the crunch is coming into view: something defers it that little bit longer!

She has to have a plan B by Monday. Then the House gets to amend it and vote on it.

That's gonna be fun.

Indeed, I think she looks at every extra day in power as a bonus. I suspect she conflates the national interest with her own. This is not a way to run a Government or Country.

I wonder if she is going to surpass Spencer Perceval?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_tenure

No she isn't.

Anazina said:

grabcocque said:

SouthamObserver said:

Another poll in France showing a jump back to En Marche. This has been a pattern throughout January so far. It seems we may have got to the point where the Gilets Jaune are actively helping Macron.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1085561628731559936

Since he kicked off his citizens' assemblies roadshow and apology tour, his approval ratings have started to climb upwards.

There are several people on this forum who are weirdly obsessed with President Macron.

They tend to be the very same people who are obsessed with Sadiq Khan and who despise the Tube scene in Darkest Hour.

Beware encouraging them!

No one brings up darkest hour more than you.

IanB2 said:

Lots of MPs still wanting to debate the Brexit deal and not the VONC/VNOC/VCON

Haven't they had enough? The deal is dead, move on!

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Me, yes. But there will be no cookies outside the EU.

Just as well I have a stash of digestives then.

Foxy said:

Sean_F said:

grabcocque said:

SouthamObserver said:

Another poll in France showing a jump back to En Marche. This has been a pattern throughout January so far. It seems we may have got to the point where the Gilets Jaune are actively helping Macron.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1085561628731559936

Since he kicked off his citizens' assemblies roadshow and apology tour, his approval ratings have started to climb upwards.

His ratings are still horrible, though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency

A recent bump upwards though, and still the most popular leader in the country.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1083852789695041539?s=19

French politicians are even less popular than our own.

Foxy said:

kyf_100 said:

No deal is the default. Its where we end up on March 29th unless something changes.

May doesn't want a second referendum because if remain win, it's the end of the Tory party. I'll certainly not be voting for them for a long, long time and I doubt I'm the only one.

She doesn't want to call a general election because there is a good chance she will either lose or end up in an even worse position than before. The polls mean nothing. A Corbyn pivot to a second referendum position could easily give him a majority.

So where does that leave us? With running down the clock. With a game of chicken to see who will blink first. The closer we get to March 29th with no deal in place, the more appealing May's deal looks. Perhaps she's betting enough MPs will be willing to back her deal at five minutes to midnight to avoid a hard Brexit to get her over the line. Or perhaps her gambit will fail. Either way, at better than 5/1 I'm putting a few quid on us leaving on March 29th.

My logic too.

May will survive.

Today she has ruled out A50 revocation and a #peoplesvote.

A50 extension would only be for a GE or referendum.

So it looks like either No Deal or a last minute repeat of last night.

Leaving 29/3 looks good value.

No deal is not likely to get through the HoC, a repeat of last night will get a similar result. I have money on not leaving on 29th (at good odds) - although not much admittedly.

logical_song said:

Foxy said:

kyf_100 said:

No deal is the default. Its where we end up on March 29th unless something changes.

May doesn't want a second referendum because if remain win, it's the end of the Tory party. I'll certainly not be voting for them for a long, long time and I doubt I'm the only one.

She doesn't want to call a general election because there is a good chance she will either lose or end up in an even worse position than before. The polls mean nothing. A Corbyn pivot to a second referendum position could easily give him a majority.

So where does that leave us? With running down the clock. With a game of chicken to see who will blink first. The closer we get to March 29th with no deal in place, the more appealing May's deal looks. Perhaps she's betting enough MPs will be willing to back her deal at five minutes to midnight to avoid a hard Brexit to get her over the line. Or perhaps her gambit will fail. Either way, at better than 5/1 I'm putting a few quid on us leaving on March 29th.

My logic too.

May will survive.

Today she has ruled out A50 revocation and a #peoplesvote.

A50 extension would only be for a GE or referendum.

So it looks like either No Deal or a last minute repeat of last night.

Leaving 29/3 looks good value.

No deal is not likely to get through the HoC, a repeat of last night will get a similar result. I have money on not leaving on 29th (at good odds) - although not much admittedly.

No Deal will occur if enough MPs see advantage to it.

CD13 said:

Mr Eagles,

Your position is very clear. You want to Remain under any circumstances. The referendum result is invalid because you don't agree with it. I've no problems with that.

You're not alone in your views, but can we call a re-run of the referendum a re-run? This Peoples' vote cobblers is embarrassing. Call it what it is. A rerun for those who lost?

.. and yet the question will be different and much more specific.

Sean_F said:

logical_song said:

Foxy said:

kyf_100 said:

No deal is the default. Its where we end up on March 29th unless something changes.

May doesn't want a second referendum because if remain win, it's the end of the Tory party. I'll certainly not be voting for them for a long, long time and I doubt I'm the only one.

She doesn't want to call a general election because there is a good chance she will either lose or end up in an even worse position than before. The polls mean nothing. A Corbyn pivot to a second referendum position could easily give him a majority.

So where does that leave us? With running down the clock. With a game of chicken to see who will blink first. The closer we get to March 29th with no deal in place, the more appealing May's deal looks. Perhaps she's betting enough MPs will be willing to back her deal at five minutes to midnight to avoid a hard Brexit to get her over the line. Or perhaps her gambit will fail. Either way, at better than 5/1 I'm putting a few quid on us leaving on March 29th.

My logic too.

May will survive.

Today she has ruled out A50 revocation and a #peoplesvote.

A50 extension would only be for a GE or referendum.

So it looks like either No Deal or a last minute repeat of last night.

Leaving 29/3 looks good value.

No deal is not likely to get through the HoC, a repeat of last night will get a similar result. I have money on not leaving on 29th (at good odds) - although not much admittedly.

No Deal will occur if enough MPs see advantage to it.

... which they won't.

CD13 said:

Mr Eagles,

Your position is very clear. You want to Remain under any circumstances. The referendum result is invalid because you don't agree with it. I've no problems with that.

You're not alone in your views, but can we call a re-run of the referendum a re-run? This Peoples' vote cobblers is embarrassing. Call it what it is. A rerun for those who lost?

Don’t lie.

I’ve repeatedly said we’ve got to Leave in March. I’d prefer we left with the deal but if we Leave with no deal so be it.

grabcocque said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is ridiculous.

My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.

I tell you what, when the Brexit showtrials start and there are death squads rounding up and disappearing suspected leave collaborators, I promise I'll let you hide in my loft.

As a LEAVE voter yourself I'm not sure that's going work out very well...

GIN1138 said:

grabcocque said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is ridiculous.

My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.

I tell you what, when the Brexit showtrials start and there are death squads rounding up and disappearing suspected leave collaborators, I promise I'll let you hide in my loft.

As a LEAVE voter yourself I'm not sure that's going work out very well...

Why not? I'm sure there's room for two in @grabcoque's loft.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.

Her husband is an Investment Fund manager. It's a no-brainer.

Careful! You'll have Carlotta after you.

Mr Song,

"and yet the question will be different and much more specific."

What will it be if there's a re-run?

Richard_Nabavi said:

The thing is, there is no option which will get a majority until most of the other options (real and fictional) have been eliminated - and have been accepted as eliminated by MPs. How do we get there?

I think they have to be tried and seen to fail one at a time.

This is the other consequence of May not broadening the debate on negotiations with the EU at the early stage. As well as failing to win support for the compromises she concluded had to be made, it allowed everyone else to hold onto their fantasies.

anothernick said:

148grss said:

grabcocque said:

I'm willing to believe there's a majority in Parliament for Norway+, but it's nearly impossible to achieve because May is autistic, Corbyn is trying to maximise chaos, and the ERG will resign the whip and crash her government rather than let it happen.

The issue with a Norway+ deal, even if our Parliament passed it; would the other countries want to be tied to us when we are obviously as nutty as a squirrel in a nutella factory?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan

Why would any other country trust us to be in a deal with them based on the way our government and parliament have acted through this whole thing?

Exactly. MPs are still behaving as if Europe were a menu of options and all the UK has to do is make its choice and ask the EU to bring it to the table. The EU will have no confidence that this House of Commons, and certainly not this Prime Minister, can deliver on any new deal it might offer and therefore it has no reason to offer one.

It's unlikely there will be a big change-over of most MPs, even with a GE.

Is there any mechanism for discharging the whole lot and starting with a complete set of fresh faces, like dismissing a jury that can't reach a verdict?

Good afternoon, everyone.

logical_song said:

Sean_F said:

logical_song said:

Foxy said:

kyf_100 said:

No deal is the default. Its where we end up on March 29th unless something changes.

May doesn't want a second referendum because if remain win, it's the end of the Tory party. I'll certainly not be voting for them for a long, long time and I doubt I'm the only one.

She doesn't want to call a general election because there is a good chance she will either lose or end up in an even worse position than before. The polls mean nothing. A Corbyn pivot to a second referendum position could easily give him a majority.

So where does that leave us? With running down the clock. With a game of chicken to see who will blink first. The closer we get to March 29th with no deal in place, the more appealing May's deal looks. Perhaps she's betting enough MPs will be willing to back her deal at five minutes to midnight to avoid a hard Brexit to get her over the line. Or perhaps her gambit will fail. Either way, at better than 5/1 I'm putting a few quid on us leaving on March 29th.

My logic too.

May will survive.

Today she has ruled out A50 revocation and a #peoplesvote.

A50 extension would only be for a GE or referendum.

So it looks like either No Deal or a last minute repeat of last night.

Leaving 29/3 looks good value.

No deal is not likely to get through the HoC, a repeat of last night will get a similar result. I have money on not leaving on 29th (at good odds) - although not much admittedly.

No Deal will occur if enough MPs see advantage to it.

... which they won't.

Well, there are 118 Conservatives who do, and plenty from opposition parties who see advantage to it.

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

Sean_F said:

grabcocque said:

SouthamObserver said:

Another poll in France showing a jump back to En Marche. This has been a pattern throughout January so far. It seems we may have got to the point where the Gilets Jaune are actively helping Macron.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1085561628731559936

Since he kicked off his citizens' assemblies roadshow and apology tour, his approval ratings have started to climb upwards.

His ratings are still horrible, though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency

A recent bump upwards though, and still the most popular leader in the country.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1083852789695041539?s=19

French politicians are even less popular than our own.

Perhaps, but it is also a feature of their two round electoral system. Macron has only ever had primary support in the twenties, but has been much more transfer friendly than Le Pen.

On those figures it would be a Macron vs Le Pen second round again, and he would win.

Good afternoon, Miss JGP.

CD13 said:

Why not have a convocation as has been suggested. A bread and water diet and we shoot one MP at random at the end of every decision-less day.. We could then sat we're leaving it to God to decide.

I say this with respect but I do not think reference to shooting mps is at all appropriate

300-309 now the favourite seat band on Betfair for Ayes on the VoNC (and overall a general movement implying a lower expected number). Any reason, or have punters belatedly learned to count / realised lots of MPs don't want an election right now / think the Opposition whips have given up?

Mr. Endillion, now I feel silly for not backing that

TGOHF said:

Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

Soubry will.

Sean_F said:

TGOHF said:

Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

Soubry will.

Heidi Allen will be, and I would assume Grieve also

Paging inappropriate gavels.

https://twitter.com/heartcambsnews/status/1085578358950428672?s=21

AnneJGP said:

anothernick said:

148grss said:

grabcocque said:

I'm willing to believe there's a majority in Parliament for Norway+, but it's nearly impossible to achieve because May is autistic, Corbyn is trying to maximise chaos, and the ERG will resign the whip and crash her government rather than let it happen.

The issue with a Norway+ deal, even if our Parliament passed it; would the other countries want to be tied to us when we are obviously as nutty as a squirrel in a nutella factory?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan

Why would any other country trust us to be in a deal with them based on the way our government and parliament have acted through this whole thing?

Exactly. MPs are still behaving as if Europe were a menu of options and all the UK has to do is make its choice and ask the EU to bring it to the table. The EU will have no confidence that this House of Commons, and certainly not this Prime Minister, can deliver on any new deal it might offer and therefore it has no reason to offer one.

It's unlikely there will be a big change-over of most MPs, even with a GE.

Is there any mechanism for discharging the whole lot and starting with a complete set of fresh faces, like dismissing a jury that can't reach a verdict?

Good afternoon, everyone.

The safe seat curse which is why we have to suffer most of these numpties in the first place.