politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of the big vote political punters now make it 79% t

asjohnstone said:

viewcode said:

asjohnstone said:

viewcode said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.

I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?

The lack of capacity and infrastructure to support the sudden cut over from Dun Laoghaire to Cork. It's a major, major task that will take months if not years

That's an engineering problem. I acknowledge the size of the major task, but conceptually it's handleable: you just build stuff. It takes time and it costs money, but when it's done it's done.

It's a very big engineering problem and if they'd started two years ago it might have been possible, but they didn't.

A no deal Brexit will bring economic carnage to Ireland, which frankly I'm entirely ok with.

Why Mrs May isn't holding a gun to the Irish head as a negotiating tactic escapes me; a "Give us what we need or the Paddies get it" Brexit.

Yellow_Submarine said:

edmundintokyo said:

MarqueeMark said:

And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......

Not sure what would happen, it could be a stirring Euro-patriotic reverse Berlin airlift.

Massive international publicity and associated EU/US wide ' Buy Irish ' campaigns as well boycotts of UK agricultural products. Nothing would immeadiately unite transatlantic popular outrage than the Brits driving Irish farmers into penury. All campaign outlines will already be drafted and in draws somewhere.

Pulpstar said:

MikeL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy Murray: Why I say he's Britain's greatest sportsman

https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-46838567

God this is even more OTT....

Yes he was briefly ranked #1, but nobody is going to look back and say he was better than the big three.

In comparison, Faldo, twice as many majors, world #1 for 2 years straight. Redgrave greatest ever Olympian, etc etc etc. All those listed against him are indisputably the world best at their peak, Murray has always been behind the big three by varying amounts.

Agreed. Murray isn't even one of the top 10 tennis players of the modern era - all the below would rank absolutely MILES ahead of him (in chronological order):

Connors, Borg, McEnroe, Becker, Edberg, Sampras, Agassi, Federer, Nadal, Djokovic.

How on earth can he be anywhere near Britain's greatest sportsman when he has so many people miles ahead of him?

In contrast there are many British sportsman who have been absolutely leading figures in their sports.

Compiling a list of potentially greater British sportsmen than Murray ?

Redgrave, Farah, Barnes, Lewis, Hamilton, lots of cyclists...,

williamglenn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy Murray: Why I say he's Britain's greatest sportsman

https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-46838567

God this is even more OTT....

Yes he was briefly ranked #1, but nobody is going to look back and say he was better than the big three.

In comparison, Faldo, twice as many majors, world #1 for 2 years straight. Redgrave greatest ever Olympian, etc etc etc. All those listed against him are indisputably the world best at their peak, Murray has always been behind the big three by varying amounts.

Agreed. Murray isn't even one of the top 10 tennis players of the modern era - all the below would rank absolutely MILES ahead of him (in chronological order):

Connors, Borg, McEnroe, Becker, Edberg, Sampras, Agassi, Federer, Nadal, Djokovic.

How on earth can he be anywhere near Britain's greatest sportsman when he has so many people miles ahead of him?

In contrast there are many British sportsman who have been absolutely leading figures in their sports.

Compiling a list of potentially greater British sportsmen than Murray ?

Redgrave, Farah, Barnes, Lewis, Hamilton, lots of cyclists...,

Potentially greater Scottish sportsmen, you can easily get 5-10.

Greater British tennis players, then you are struggling....Come on Timmmmm.

Virginia Wade.

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Rich students save by paying fees up front

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-46866346

I would have thought putting a decent deposit down and paying the mortgage on a house while at uni would have been better use of their money?

I smell some sort of tax efficiency going on here. I know when the fees were pay upfront, with reductions for the poor, the fiddle for self employed parents was to not take more than a minimal salary from their companies in the years leading up to kids going to uni.

Is there some clear tax advantage here if you give your kid the fees upfront, rather than purchasing property?

I think I might have avoided the fees back one or a couple of years at uni as my Dad rums his own businesses and iirc he was transitioning from one to another when I went.
But I took the full loan as it was 'the cheapest money you'll ever have'. That isn't the case now - plan 2 is particularly trappy if you want to live/work near the capital with the inflated salaries and house prices there.

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Rich students save by paying fees up front

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-46866346

I would have thought putting a decent deposit down and paying the mortgage on a house while at uni would have been better use of their money?

I smell some sort of tax efficiency going on here. I know when the fees were pay upfront, with reductions for the poor, the fiddle for self employed parents was to not take more than a minimal salary from their companies in the years leading up to kids going to uni.

Is there some clear tax advantage here if you give your kid the fees upfront, rather than purchasing property?

I think I might have avoided the fees back one or a couple of years at uni as my Dad rums his own businesses and iirc he was transitioning from one to another when I went.
But I took the full loan as it was 'the cheapest money you'll ever have'. That isn't the case now - plan 2 is particularly trappy if you want to live/work near the capital with the inflated salaries and house prices there.

Am I correct in thinking student loans need not be paid back after a certain age (55?). Is it possible to take out a student loan at, say, 54, then pay none of it back? Can you take out such a loan after that point?

FrancisUrquhart said:

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Rich students save by paying fees up front

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-46866346

I would have thought putting a decent deposit down and paying the mortgage on a house while at uni would have been better use of their money?

I smell some sort of tax efficiency going on here. I know when the fees were pay upfront, with reductions for the poor, the fiddle for self employed parents was to not take more than a minimal salary from their companies in the years leading up to kids going to uni.

Is there some clear tax advantage here if you give your kid the fees upfront, rather than purchasing property?

I think I might have avoided the fees back one or a couple of years at uni as my Dad rums his own businesses and iirc he was transitioning from one to another when I went.
But I took the full loan as it was 'the cheapest money you'll ever have'. That isn't the case now - plan 2 is particularly trappy if you want to live/work near the capital with the inflated salaries and house prices there.

Am I correct in thinking student loans need not be paid back after a certain age (55?). Is it possible to take out a student loan at, say, 54, then pay none of it back? Can you take out such a loan after that point?

I believe it is 30 years after you graduate, not a set age.

Stereotomy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Rich students save by paying fees up front

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-46866346

I would have thought putting a decent deposit down and paying the mortgage on a house while at uni would have been better use of their money?

I smell some sort of tax efficiency going on here. I know when the fees were pay upfront, with reductions for the poor, the fiddle for self employed parents was to not take more than a minimal salary from their companies in the years leading up to kids going to uni.

Is there some clear tax advantage here if you give your kid the fees upfront, rather than purchasing property?

At 6.3%? Better to pay the student loan.

viewcode said:

David_Evershed said:

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Rich students save by paying fees up front

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-46866346

I would have thought putting a decent deposit down and paying the mortgage on a house while at uni would have been better use of their money?

I smell some sort of tax efficiency going on here. I know when the fees were pay upfront, with reductions for the poor, the fiddle for self employed parents was to not take more than a minimal salary from their companies in the years leading up to kids going to uni.

Is there some clear tax advantage here if you give your kid the fees upfront, rather than purchasing property?

I think I might have avoided the fees back one or a couple of years at uni as my Dad rums his own businesses and iirc he was transitioning from one to another when I went.
But I took the full loan as it was 'the cheapest money you'll ever have'. That isn't the case now - plan 2 is particularly trappy if you want to live/work near the capital with the inflated salaries and house prices there.

Am I correct in thinking student loans need not be paid back after a certain age (55?). Is it possible to take out a student loan at, say, 54, then pay none of it back? Can you take out such a loan after that point?

I believe it is 30 years after you graduate, not a set age.

Damn. I was hoping to do another degree in my 50's. No free gifts...

Move to Scotland.

Explain, please?

viewcode said:

David_Evershed said:

viewcode said:

David_Evershed said:

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Rich students save by paying fees up front

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-46866346

I would have thought putting a decent deposit down and paying the mortgage on a house while at uni would have been better use of their money?

I smell some sort of tax efficiency going on here. I know when the fees were pay upfront, with reductions for the poor, the fiddle for self employed parents was to not take more than a minimal salary from their companies in the years leading up to kids going to uni.

Is there some clear tax advantage here if you give your kid the fees upfront, rather than purchasing property?

I think I might have avoided the fees back one or a couple of years at uni as my Dad rums his own businesses and iirc he was transitioning from one to another when I went.
But I took the full loan as it was 'the cheapest money you'll ever have'. That isn't the case now - plan 2 is particularly trappy if you want to live/work near the capital with the inflated salaries and house prices there.

Am I correct in thinking student loans need not be paid back after a certain age (55?). Is it possible to take out a student loan at, say, 54, then pay none of it back? Can you take out such a loan after that point?

I believe it is 30 years after you graduate, not a set age.

Damn. I was hoping to do another degree in my 50's. No free gifts...

Move to Scotland.

Explain, please?

No tuition fees.

Is that for Scottish residents, or non-Scottish people studying in Scotland?

Pulpstar said:

David_Evershed said:

Stereotomy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Rich students save by paying fees up front

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-46866346

I would have thought putting a decent deposit down and paying the mortgage on a house while at uni would have been better use of their money?

I smell some sort of tax efficiency going on here. I know when the fees were pay upfront, with reductions for the poor, the fiddle for self employed parents was to not take more than a minimal salary from their companies in the years leading up to kids going to uni.

Is there some clear tax advantage here if you give your kid the fees upfront, rather than purchasing property?

At 6.3%? Better to pay the student loan.

Except the student loan only gets paid off if you earn a sufficiently high salary for 30 years.

Increasing pension contributions is another route that could mean you're better off taking the loan

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Rich students save by paying fees up front

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-46866346

I would have thought putting a decent deposit down and paying the mortgage on a house while at uni would have been better use of their money?

I smell some sort of tax efficiency going on here. I know when the fees were pay upfront, with reductions for the poor, the fiddle for self employed parents was to not take more than a minimal salary from their companies in the years leading up to kids going to uni.

Is there some clear tax advantage here if you give your kid the fees upfront, rather than purchasing property?

I think I might have avoided the fees back one or a couple of years at uni as my Dad rums his own businesses and iirc he was transitioning from one to another when I went.
But I took the full loan as it was 'the cheapest money you'll ever have'. That isn't the case now - plan 2 is particularly trappy if you want to live/work near the capital with the inflated salaries and house prices there.

Am I correct in thinking student loans need not be paid back after a certain age (55?). Is it possible to take out a student loan at, say, 54, then pay none of it back? Can you take out such a loan after that point?

I believe it is 30 years after you graduate, not a set age.

Damn. I was hoping to do another degree in my 50's. No free gifts...