politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Italian Job – Part Two: Nessun Dorma – sleepless nights in
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How much are these amendments led by the person tabling them, or are some so collectively drafted that the tabler is picked almost at random I wonder? I am curious since he is my MP and it is now twice he has come up in reporting tonight.DanSmith said:https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1084585903316701184
This will at least make people realise that its not just the backstop that is preventing this from getting a majority.0 -
Lord Falconer is hanging on in therekle4 said:
And if you've lost them you've lost everybody!NickPalmer said:
Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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Larry knows his duty is to the nation, whoever is PM.GIN1138 said:
At this rate even Larry The Cat will be resigning.NickPalmer said:
Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!TheScreamingEagles said:
I would advise the PM to take more of his advice though, it will probably work out better than the last 2 years.0 -
Isn't that amendment all about the backstop, or am I missing something?DanSmith said:https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1084585903316701184
This will at least make people realise that its not just the backstop that is preventing this from getting a majority.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
He's a PPS.NickPalmer said:
Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!TheScreamingEagles said:
Permanently pissed somewhere?0 -
The bottom of this link shows the list of amendments tgether with the supporters for each (albeit this latest amendment hasn't been added to the list yet):kle4 said:
How much are these amendments led by the person tabling them, or are some so collectively drafted that the tabler is picked almost at random I wonder? I am curious since he is my MP and it is now twice he has come up in reporting tonight.DanSmith said:https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1084585903316701184
This will at least make people realise that its not just the backstop that is preventing this from getting a majority.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-meaningful-vote-brexit0 -
I don't think she generally optimizes for things more than a day away, I wouldn't read anything into this apart from what side she thinks she can get votes on.GIN1138 said:
Reading that it sounds like she could be preparing the case for a general election?TheScreamingEagles said:
Obviously she know's her deal will be voted down but this reads like she's setting out the case fir why she's got to take her deal to the people as Parliament is being so unreasonable?0 -
Yes. People try to defend it as 'trying to change things from within' and all that, but come on, he's a PPS, he wasn't in at the highest level where any possibility of changing things was going to occur. Either he hadn't made up his mind yet, somehow, or he wanted to be more dramatic. Nevertheless, yet more proof of just how dead May's deal is, as people are still coming out against it.GIN1138 said:
Ugh! What a drama queen. If he wanted to resign he could have done it weeks ago.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given how certain a defeat it is, I do have to respect those opposition politicians backing it. There can be no personal benefit to them doing so after all.0 -
Right, off to bed for me.
Looking forward to a truly historic week ahead
'Night all!0 -
Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred and fifty.0 -
Barron is backing it but only because of the electoral threat IMO. In fact the only reason in my mind why any opposition will back it is down to electoral politics. Even the LD guy is only backing it to prevent a backlash in Eastbourne.kle4 said:
Yes. People try to defend it as 'trying to change things from within' and all that, but come on, he's a PPS, he wasn't in at the highest level where any possibility of changing things was going to occur. Either he hadn't made up his mind yet, somehow, or he wanted to be more dramatic. Nevertheless, yet more proof of just how dead May's deal is, as people are still coming out against it.GIN1138 said:
Ugh! What a drama queen. If he wanted to resign he could have done it weeks ago.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given how certain a defeat it is, I do have to respect those opposition politicians backing it. There can be no personal benefit to them doing so after all.0 -
I am half-tempted to hide from political news until this time next week.0
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I think Larry the Cat has been replaced a few times now. For some reason the Cats don't last very long, they usually end up as mince meat on the main road after several buses have crushed them. At least the magpie's have something to eat!kle4 said:
Larry knows his duty is to the nation, whoever is PM.GIN1138 said:
At this rate even Larry The Cat will be resigning.NickPalmer said:
Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!TheScreamingEagles said:
I would advise the PM to take more of his advice though, it will probably work out better than the last 2 years.0 -
It isn't a backstop if it is time limited. So the EU wont agree to it.RobD said:
Isn't that amendment all about the backstop, or am I missing something?DanSmith said:https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1084585903316701184
This will at least make people realise that its not just the backstop that is preventing this from getting a majority.
More time wasting crap.0 -
Saying "I support the WA only subject to some criteria that the withdrawal agreement doesn't meet" is the same thing as saying "I don't support the withdrawal agreement".
That said, it would be HILARIOUS if that amendment passed because then May would have to go back to the EU and explain herself to a furious Council.0 -
I have to admit I am not familiar with his name.NickPalmer said:
Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!TheScreamingEagles said:
More interested in the "others to follow"
Sounds like we have been here before.0 -
We now go live to Brexit.
"Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson’s plan to scare away Spanish vessels off Gibraltar by using paintballs"
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8185701/gavin-williamson-spanish-gibraltar-paintballs/0 -
Wildly off topic - in the industry I work in there was once a guy called Richard Head.........Jonathan said:
Wha about Mike Hunt?TheScreamingEagles said:
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That is simply deluded. The EU is evolving very quickly and it is beyond the ability of the UK to do anything about that. The idea that it would be the same if we just cancelled Brexit is fanciful.RochdalePioneers said:
William was right and you and I both know it. We know precisely what to expect if we pull Article 50 because it's identical to what we had before we invoked it. We don't know precisely or even generally what to expect if we go out because we are still arguing over what we want.
I know that you and others don't really care what happens because the prize is leaving as a moral principle. A good friend of mine makes the same argument. The rest of us would quite like to know what is on the other side of the doorway before we step through0 -
Well, until Tuesday evening ........Foxy said:Off to bed now, but can I heartily recommend going to see "Stan and Ollie". It is a great film, and amazing performances all round, heartwarming and poignant without being schmalzy. It has put me in a fine mood for the week.
In all seriousness sounds like a good film0 -
Wholly endorse that. (And I normally loathe Steve Coogan.)Foxy said:Off to bed now, but can I heartily recommend going to see "Stan and Ollie". It is a great film, and amazing performances all round, heartwarming and poignant without being schmalzy. It has put me in a fine mood for the week.
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Rumours are there's ~5 Tory PPSes planning to resign to vote against the MV.
I'm still holding a candle for Penny Mordaunt to do the dirty. What's the lastest a cabinet minister could plausibly resign before the MV and still be within the spirit of the ministerial code?0 -
Its almost like - she never intended to leave......IanB2 said:0 -
Well exactlygrabcocque said:Saying "I support the WA only subject to some criteria that the withdrawal agreement doesn't meet" is the same thing as saying "I don't support the withdrawal agreement".
She would never have fought this hard for this long if she did not intend to leave.She doesn't have the competence to have had this mess be a part of the plan to enable remain.Floater said:
Its almost like - she never intended to leave......IanB2 said:0 -
V interesting thread.
"A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers."
https://twitter.com/MarriottNigel/status/10845398482314485760 -
Given that the next Labour government is in all likelihood going to be propped up by the SNP, I suggest that reaching out to Tory leavers is a mug's game and a half for them.rottenborough said:V interesting thread.
"A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers."
https://twitter.com/MarriottNigel/status/10845398482314485760 -
I don't criticise Corbyn for his vague replies. He's a intentionally obfuscating, cynically partisan genius when it comes to his Brexit position. Even this morning apparently leavers thought he threatened to remain and remainers that he would definitely leave. He's such a regular politician on this issue.rottenborough said:V interesting thread.
"A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers."
https://twitter.com/MarriottNigel/status/1084539848231448576
Doesn't make the path to an outright majority easy, as that thread points out, but his delayed approach has been very effective to date.0 -
You might even go as far as to say his eternally triangulating, pragmatism-over-principle approach to trying to find a middle ground Brexit might even be called...kle4 said:
I don't criticise Corbyn for his vague replies. He's a intentionally obfuscating, cynically partisan genius when it comes to his Brexit position.rottenborough said:V interesting thread.
"A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers."
https://twitter.com/MarriottNigel/status/1084539848231448576
B L A I R I T E0 -
Perish the thought.grabcocque said:
You might even go as far as to say his eternally triangulating, pragmatism-over-principle approach to trying to find a middle ground Brexit might even be called...kle4 said:
I don't criticise Corbyn for his vague replies. He's a intentionally obfuscating, cynically partisan genius when it comes to his Brexit position.rottenborough said:V interesting thread.
"A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers."
https://twitter.com/MarriottNigel/status/1084539848231448576
B L A I R I T E0 -
grabcocque said:
You might even go as far as to say his eternally triangulating, pragmatism-over-principle approach to trying to find a middle ground Brexit might even be called...kle4 said:
I don't criticise Corbyn for his vague replies. He's a intentionally obfuscating, cynically partisan genius when it comes to his Brexit position.rottenborough said:V interesting thread.
"A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers."
https://twitter.com/MarriottNigel/status/1084539848231448576
B L A I R I T E
But surely Magic Grandpa isn't a triangulator?
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How likely is it that this liaison committee being talked about in the press could force the government into a second referendum with a choice on offer being only between mays deal and remain in the plot being hatched with nick boles and Oliver letwin0
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He could be quite an effective politician if he cared as little about everything else as he does about brexitgrabcocque said:
You might even go as far as to say his eternally triangulating, pragmatism-over-principle approach to trying to find a middle ground Brexit might even be called...kle4 said:
I don't criticise Corbyn for his vague replies. He's a intentionally obfuscating, cynically partisan genius when it comes to his Brexit position.rottenborough said:V interesting thread.
"A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers."
https://twitter.com/MarriottNigel/status/1084539848231448576
B L A I R I T E0 -
Headline in tomorrow's Sunil:
24 hours to save Brexit!0 -
No, usually a lot of thought goes into the top 6 names on the list, as they appear more prominently on the order paper, and the lead person will usually be the one called to speak on it.kle4 said:
How much are these amendments led by the person tabling them, or are some so collectively drafted that the tabler is picked almost at random I wonder? I am curious since he is my MP and it is now twice he has come up in reporting tonight.DanSmith said:https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1084585903316701184
This will at least make people realise that its not just the backstop that is preventing this from getting a majority.0 -
What would stop May opting for a GE to clear the impasse?
If it is made clear that any Conservative candidate standing at the election must be willing to vote for the deal as it will be explicitly promised in the manifesto that all candidates will support the deal.
Those fervent remainer Conservative MP's would have the option then of making a decision to stand or not.
If she gets a majority then the deal passes, if she doesn't then Corbyn can be invited to navigate the exit from the EU (or not).0 -
Stopping g brexit requires primary legislation, it's entirely the government s gift stillTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Who would campaign for the deal?kjohnw said:How likely is it that this liaison committee being talked about in the press could force the government into a second referendum with a choice on offer being only between mays deal and remain in the plot being hatched with nick boles and Oliver letwin
It would in all likelihood result in millions fewer voting and remain being the foregone conclusion.
A result without any legitimacy.
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TMaySunnyJim said:
Who would campaign for the deal?kjohnw said:How likely is it that this liaison committee being talked about in the press could force the government into a second referendum with a choice on offer being only between mays deal and remain in the plot being hatched with nick boles and Oliver letwin
Dunno, Remain turnout would be through the roof and Leave turnout could go either way.SunnyJim said:It would in all likelihood result in millions fewer voting and remain being the foregone conclusion.
A result without any legitimacy.0 -
They did say "never seriously been questioned"williamglenn said:0 -
May herself voted against it after the referendum.RobD said:
They did say "never seriously been questioned"williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/10846208544980746250 -
The first of those was Mrs May voting for an amendment to the Bill. What was the amendment?0
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The ERG demonstrate the truth of the adage "don't let great be the enemy of good."Sean_F said:
I agree.ydoethur said:
On the contrary. It takes us out of CAP, CFP, the CJEU, the Single Market, the Customs Union, the Four Freedoms and the European Political system.FF43 said:
As far as it relates to the act of withdrawal "May's Deal" isn't vassalage. That's because the future relationship isn't dealt with beyond committing to retain some aspects of what is already there. It's a smart deal in that respect, but it's a bit Jesuitical, really.ydoethur said:
Have you read it? I'm guessing from your comment the answer is 'no,' btw.Stark_Dawning said:It’s amazing the number of ‘Parliament is Sovereign’ Leavers who are now throwing a strop because it’s resisting Theresa’s vassal-state deal.
That's pretty extensive with regard to the future relationship.
It's also one reason why everybody is obsessing about this ludicrous backstop - because it's the only stick to beat it with, even though in reality it's a feeble one that the EU certainly wouldn't want to be anything other than temporary.
The problem , as one journalist put it, is if you transformed water into wine for the ERG, they'd complain about the vintage.0 -
Except for the absence of anything great or good.rcs1000 said:
The ERG demonstrate the truth of the adage "don't let great be the enemy of good."Sean_F said:
I agree.ydoethur said:
On the contrary. It takes us out of CAP, CFP, the CJEU, the Single Market, the Customs Union, the Four Freedoms and the European Political system.FF43 said:
As far as it relates to the act of withdrawal "May's Deal" isn't vassalage. That's because the future relationship isn't dealt with beyond committing to retain some aspects of what is already there. It's a smart deal in that respect, but it's a bit Jesuitical, really.ydoethur said:
Have you read it? I'm guessing from your comment the answer is 'no,' btw.Stark_Dawning said:It’s amazing the number of ‘Parliament is Sovereign’ Leavers who are now throwing a strop because it’s resisting Theresa’s vassal-state deal.
That's pretty extensive with regard to the future relationship.
It's also one reason why everybody is obsessing about this ludicrous backstop - because it's the only stick to beat it with, even though in reality it's a feeble one that the EU certainly wouldn't want to be anything other than temporary.
The problem , as one journalist put it, is if you transformed water into wine for the ERG, they'd complain about the vintage.
NEW THREAD0
