politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Italian Job – Part Two: Nessun Dorma – sleepless nights in
Comments
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Indeed. Writing interestingly and succintly is harder than it looks. I am immensely grateful to OGH for the opportunity. And I learn something from you and the other thread writers. I also have my own blog to practise on and it is interesting seeing what gets a good reaction on that. Different audiences, of course, and a different purpose.Alanbrooke said:
Mrs Free, thanksCyclefree said:
There is more to creating a demos than just these changes. Can you have a real demos without there being a common language say? The words might be the same but the understanding very different etc. People might even use the same words but mean very different things by them eg “democracy”.NickPalmer said:grabcocque said:
Not saying that it can’t be done. Nor even that it might not be desirable. But it is much harder than people suppose. There is an obvious country we could look to as an example - the US. Understanding how a demos and the political culture and institutions which flowed from that happened and what lessons might be learnt would be a much more useful task than simply thinking that passing a Directive in Brussels and insisting that everyone must follow it is the answer.
On topic, a very interesting header from @Alanbrooke. Thank you.
Italians have generally been very keen on the EU because it was seen as:-
(a) generally much better than their own corrupt, venal and incompetent political class which, with rare exceptions, had generally been a failure and a disappointment since unification; and
(b) another source of money, goodies, posts and favours to be distributed to clients i.e. Italian clientilismo but on a European scale.
Now that same EU is seen as a bit of a trap which is not helping their own politicians make the changes that are needed. Italians know perfectly well that it is their politicians which are the problem but the EU is not providing the escape route which it previously did. And they have not been respected by other countries. That means a lot to them. Now others are having to pay attention to Italy.
since you write articles yourself you are probably aware as to the difficulties of trying to keep articles to bite size chunks and struggling to stop them being novels.
In reading up on Italy what struck me vividly was the impact of EU austerity in Southern Europe. The more you look at it there is the danger of the whole social fabric unpicking.- high youth unemployment, crashing birth rates endemic poverty. Its a continent tragedy,
It’s interesting how the Left (other than the Far Left) has been so willing to go along with austerity in the name of Europe which they would never tolerate if it was imposed by domestic centre right parties.0 -
If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.williamglenn said:
It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.RoyalBlue said:
Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.
It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!0 -
I've done 260 to 269 @ 25/1
Sensing a move towards the Deal.
No doubt like most bets based on 'sensing something unlikely in the absence of hard evidence' it will be a loser.0 -
Signs of (compromised) life.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1084499191404154883
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/10845000831970508810 -
Which would assist Remain in itself. Many people would consider Parliament would never a Leave result, regardless.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, problem with such a referendum is, if it comes to that, it's a choice between something the electorate voted against and something the Commons voted against.
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This is hilarious stuff. What a coincidence that these months of discussion have ended up concluding...exactly what they concluded from the start regardless of how much chaos there might have been. And that the solution is just to redo it all over again, and not because it needs confirming, but because of changed minds, ie this time they think they will win.
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1073847596530196480
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Sean_F said:
The polling is very mixed on Deal v Remain. If it went to a referendum, it would turn on how many Leave supporters stay at home.RoyalBlue said:
As long as it’s seen as Leave, it has a chance. Very few people have changed their minds, and we know that people don’t appreciate unnecessary elections.kle4 said:
No, I just don't think they are that out of step with the public on this - confused, and in the mood for simple answers which sound nice rather than a compromise which has been trashed by both left and right. It will be seen as May's deal, that has been hammered home by Tories for months, and whether a boycott is called for or not some number of leavers will believe as they ERG do that this will result in eternal vassalage or whatever. There's simply not enough enthusiasm to see a hamstrung leave win against a fired up remain campaign. No, nothing is impossible, but we've had months and months of people talking about the deal, and there have been the occasional grass shoots for it among the public, but nothing like enough.RoyalBlue said:
You are overstating the importance of what MPs think.kle4 said:
The deal won't win. How could it? The only support for it will be from, maybe, 2/3 of Tory MPs, all the rest, most business and media etc, will be on the side of Remain again, and (more crucially since yes, most MPs, media and business was on the side of remain last time), Leave is critically divided and have a much higher chance of people not coming out.RoyalBlue said:
If we have a second referendum and the deal wins, the level of support in Parliament doesn’t matter. I fully expect any such vote to be legally binding, and they’re not going to make No Deal the alternative to Remain.kle4 said:
It's laughable how badly it is doing. Quite how even a miracle sees it lose by even a mere 100 I do not know. And that does matter, since the prospect of it being saved is preposterous if a defeat is on that scale. It's not in intensive care, it's in a hospice.Theuniondivvie said:Deal still in intensive care.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1084468612356808706
I thought it was more on how many of those young people who have just had their future stolen could be bothered to actually vote0 -
The term cross-party is meaningless when it comes to Brexit.kle4 said:This is hilarious stuff. What a coincidence that these months of discussion have ended up concluding...exactly what they concluded from the start regardless of how much chaos there might have been.
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/10738475965301964800 -
Sir Edward Leigh has confirmed he will vote for it.kle4 said:
I am surprised my MP (Dr Murrison) was one of those still wavering, he's an ultra party loyalist . Generally.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1084500083197050881AlastairMeeks said:
You can get 4/5 with Ladbrokes that there will be 200-249 votes for the deal. While I think Election Maps have the current par result a touch on the high side (I make it somewhere around 210) this bet looks very good value to me.Theuniondivvie said:Deal still in intensive care.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/10844686123568087060 -
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Well it should be, but by and large it is still very much along party lines, with plenty of arguments that don't make sense without those party lines.RobD said:
The term cross-party is meaningless when it comes to Brexit.kle4 said:This is hilarious stuff. What a coincidence that these months of discussion have ended up concluding...exactly what they concluded from the start regardless of how much chaos there might have been.
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/10738475965301964800 -
All three had already come out for the deal some time ago. If they were wavering that’s bad news for Theresa May, not good news.kle4 said:
I am surprised my MP (Dr Murrison) was one of those still wavering, he's an ultra party loyalist . Generally.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1084500083197050881AlastairMeeks said:
You can get 4/5 with Ladbrokes that there will be 200-249 votes for the deal. While I think Election Maps have the current par result a touch on the high side (I make it somewhere around 210) this bet looks very good value to me.Theuniondivvie said:Deal still in intensive care.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/10844686123568087060 -
correct the term is very cross or sometimes furiously dementedRobD said:
The term cross-party is meaningless when it comes to Brexit.kle4 said:This is hilarious stuff. What a coincidence that these months of discussion have ended up concluding...exactly what they concluded from the start regardless of how much chaos there might have been.
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/10738475965301964800 -
And really, young people denied a vote? I assume the suffrage was 16 before the referendum or something.kle4 said:
Well it should be, but by and large it is still very much along party lines, with plenty of arguments that don't make sense without those party lines.RobD said:
The term cross-party is meaningless when it comes to Brexit.kle4 said:This is hilarious stuff. What a coincidence that these months of discussion have ended up concluding...exactly what they concluded from the start regardless of how much chaos there might have been.
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/10738475965301964800 -
She’s very slippery. She’s right that the protest she suffered probably moved over into a public order offence and was quite unpleasant and alarming. But she’s trying to conflate that with the loud protests on the green making it difficult for the broadcasters (on her last broadcast with sky news she called people who voted leave fascists and nazis). Because sky news are having difficulty getting the sound levels right does not make it some how a contravention or free speech, and does not mean that this is also some convoluted offence. Utter nonsense.rottenborough said:0 -
I would hope that they have no been buying people off with Privy Council positions and the like, since what would be the point when they need to switch 100 or so votes? They can hardly give out that many without it being too obvious.Theuniondivvie said:Signs of (compromised) life.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/10844991914041548830 -
I wasn’t involved in starting it.RoyalBlue said:
If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.williamglenn said:
It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.RoyalBlue said:
Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.
It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!0 -
When you are relying on Colin Warnock to swing public opinion, you’re on thin ice!0
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That old chestbut is one of the most preposterous of the second referendum arguments (which for the record, I still back simply as at least a possible way out of this mess). Today's toddlers won't be getting a vote on this new referendum either, what if they are set to be a super brexity generation or something? If people grow up out of the EU will they be as keen to rejoin it? Maybe, but it is so weak when people go down the route of talking about the young people, because it inevitably just ends up sounding like old people should not be allowed to vote in referendums, and unless you rerun it every year new young people will always have been left out.RobD said:
And really, young people denied a vote? I assume the suffrage was 16 before the referendum or something.kle4 said:
Well it should be, but by and large it is still very much along party lines, with plenty of arguments that don't make sense without those party lines.RobD said:
The term cross-party is meaningless when it comes to Brexit.kle4 said:This is hilarious stuff. What a coincidence that these months of discussion have ended up concluding...exactly what they concluded from the start regardless of how much chaos there might have been.
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/10738475965301964800 -
That is a coup for Theresa May, whether or not bought by an honour.Theuniondivvie said:Signs of (compromised) life.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/10844991914041548830 -
Debate will be centred around "who governs us - the voters or the MPs?" Remain lose badly on that argument....RoyalBlue said:
If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.williamglenn said:
It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.RoyalBlue said:
Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.
It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!0 -
Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.0
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It’s funny to see how Soubry et al are upset by the level of opprobrium they face now.MarqueeMark said:
Debate will be centred around "who governs us - the voters or the MPs?" Remain lose badly on that argument....RoyalBlue said:
If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.williamglenn said:
It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.RoyalBlue said:
Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.
It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!
They have no idea what’s coming if we have to vote again.0 -
Well she doesn't really have any good news when it comes to the vote. Even the news a few Labour MPs will back it isn't really good news, since as far as I recall most lists predicting the vote calculated in that some number of Lab MPs would do so, even though they had spoken against the deal.AlastairMeeks said:
All three had already come out for the deal some time ago. If they were wavering that’s bad news for Theresa May, not good news.kle4 said:
I am surprised my MP (Dr Murrison) was one of those still wavering, he's an ultra party loyalist . Generally.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1084500083197050881AlastairMeeks said:
You can get 4/5 with Ladbrokes that there will be 200-249 votes for the deal. While I think Election Maps have the current par result a touch on the high side (I make it somewhere around 210) this bet looks very good value to me.Theuniondivvie said:Deal still in intensive care.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1084468612356808706
So it is as it was: Will it be a record defeat, or just a titanic defeat?0 -
I think the campaign will be unpleasant, if we vote to remain, there will be a lot of discontent, but the democratic process will be damaged, not beyond repair, but damaged.RoyalBlue said:
If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.williamglenn said:
It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.RoyalBlue said:
Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.
It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!
Many remainers seem to see a second referendum as a no cost option. If they win, they win and we stay in the Eu, if they lose, well we were leaving anyway.
Not sure it’s that simple. What a horrible mess we are in.0 -
She's been playing Crusader Kings II?Yellow_Submarine said:Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.
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No worries, parliament is about to take back control. And since the problem is definitely purely May and not at all that parliament is horribly divided on this, everything will be fine.notme2 said:
Not sure it’s that simple. What a horrible mess we are in.RoyalBlue said:
If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.williamglenn said:
It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.RoyalBlue said:
Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.
It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!
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Not if it wins. Most people do not appear the slightest bit concerned about a re run so long as they get what they wantMarqueeMark said:
Debate will be centred around "who governs us - the voters or the MPs?" Remain lose badly on that argument....RoyalBlue said:
If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.williamglenn said:
It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.RoyalBlue said:
Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.
It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!0 -
She’s being advised by Gliterhoof.kle4 said:
She's been playing Crusader Kings II?Yellow_Submarine said:Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.
Ah, my coat.0 -
A Grand Strategy borrowed from the 18th century: honours for votes.Yellow_Submarine said:Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.
And we have the nerve to criticise Italian politicians!0 -
Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.0
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One of the men at the heart of pro-Brexit yellow jacket protests outside Parliament was jailed for his part in an attempted kidnapping.
Danny Thomas - who is Tommy Robinson's bodyguard - has been protesting alongside activists who clashed with Remain-voting Tory MP Anna Soubry in Westminster.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6586497/Pro-Brexit-yellow-vest-rally-organiser-jailed-frightening-armed-kidnap-plot.html0 -
I had to google that (CKII proved far too complicated for my poor little mind). What a great story.RobD said:
She’s being advised by Gliterhoof.kle4 said:
She's been playing Crusader Kings II?Yellow_Submarine said:Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.
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I agree that British democracy can survive a second referendum. However, the damage caused will reverberate for years, if not decades.notme2 said:
I think the campaign will be unpleasant, if we vote to remain, there will be a lot of discontent, but the democratic process will be damaged, not beyond repair, but damaged.RoyalBlue said:
If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.williamglenn said:
It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.RoyalBlue said:
Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.
It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!
Many remainers seem to see a second referendum as a no cost option. If they win, they win and we stay in the Eu, if they lose, well we were leaving anyway.
Not sure it’s that simple. What a horrible mess we are in.
I think Corbyn would then be likely to win the next election. There will be millions of voters looking for revenge, and they’re not going to blame the official opposition.
It’ll get exciting when McDonnell introduces capital controls in the first budget.0 -
This is interesting. EU prepatring for an A50 extension. Possibly a lengthy one:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/eu-preparing-to-delay-brexit-until-at-least-july0 -
The country is horribly divided on this, EU over did their negotiating advantage to end up with a cauliflower deal, Theresa May set down red lines which made compromise appear as defeat, the Labour Party do not want to leave, but their leader does, sees the weakness in parliament as a means to power and will actively oppose any and all deals. A Conservative party that has collectively decided it wants a milkshake, but can’t decide the flavour, with a couple of dozen insisting it’s a vegan shake or nothing.kle4 said:
No worries, parliament is about to take back control. And since the problem is definitely purely May and not at all that parliament is horribly divided on this, everything will be fine.notme2 said:
Not sure it’s that simple. What a horrible mess we are in.RoyalBlue said:
If we vote again, the outrage, and the level to which it is stoked, will be greater than anything we have seen before. The objective merits of Leave vs Remain will not see the light of day.williamglenn said:
It’s far too late to avoid that fate. Too many people are on the record as saying that Remain is better than the deal.RoyalBlue said:
Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.
It will be a polite civil war, and there will be real unpleasantness. I hope you’re happy!0 -
John Redwood got a knighthood. If votes are being bought with honours it is doing a very poor job of it, and has bought off less than a handful in a vote to be lost by hundreds. Is it plausible?Cyclefree said:
A Grand Strategy borrowed from the 18th century: honours for votes.Yellow_Submarine said:Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.
And we have the nerve to criticise Italian politicians!0 -
You are right in that the option should spell out the direction of travel put forward by the EU President. However, the "if" is rather questionable. The second referendum has nothing to do with any exercise of democratic expression. Rather, it is about protecting the backs of a large majority of MPs who will already have scuppered Brexit and who fear the consequences of their actions. Some have done so overtly, others such as May and Hammond have done so covertly through masking their willingness all along to negotiate for BINO by the guise of ineptitude.kyf_100 said:
Euro army.grabcocque said:
The old process of periodic redrafting of the treaties greatly increasing the EU's power is over. The bloodshed over the constitutional treaty and Lisbon clearly demonstrated that avenue of further integration is now politically impossible and won't be attempted again.Richard_Tyndall said:
But I thought Remainers on here kept telling us Ever Closer Union was not an aim any more.
Future integration efforts will be done:
1) Via fiscal union for the Eurozone by fiscal compacts
2) Via "enhanced cooperation" procedure so that small groups of nations integrate further voluntarily without needing all member states to approve. France and Germany wish to use that for enhanced military cooperation.
3) The passerelle clause
Tax harmonisation.
That's where it's headed.
And if there is to be a second referendum, that's what should be on the ballot paper.
So as Brexit is going to be scuppered long before any referendum is held, let MPs go ahead and vote it down, face the consequences and forget about the protective veneer of a 2nd referendum.0 -
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
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Honours cost the state nothing to confer and printing at will inflates away their value. As a way of buying votes goes it's a harmless one. My own MP has flip flopped on the MV. I hope she held out for a Damehood.Cyclefree said:
A Grand Strategy borrowed from the 18th century: honours for votes.Yellow_Submarine said:Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.
And we have the nerve to criticise Italian politicians!0 -
I’d much rather patronage manifested in the form of titles than public money.Cyclefree said:
A Grand Strategy borrowed from the 18th century: honours for votes.Yellow_Submarine said:Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.
And we have the nerve to criticise Italian politicians!0 -
I'd rather they not be willing to trade position on something for a title. But I honestly don't see how that can be what is happening, given how many people are voting no handing out a few gongs wouldn't help. Presumably it's buggins' turn.RoyalBlue said:
I’d much rather patronage manifested in the form of titles than public money.Cyclefree said:
A Grand Strategy borrowed from the 18th century: honours for votes.Yellow_Submarine said:Looks like Theresa's Grand Strategy is working.
And we have the nerve to criticise Italian politicians!0 -
David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.
To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.0 -
We know that is the plan because they were saying so before the MV was pulled in december that less than 100 would be spun as a victory. Pathetic, but with no way to win the MV first up that's probably the best they can hope for. They won't get it.Yellow_Submarine said:David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.
To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.0 -
I can’t see how she will unless she gets epic assistance from Labour MPs. There’s a very big hardcore of rebels with little reason to back down.Yellow_Submarine said:David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.
To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.0 -
Coup de grace?AlastairMeeks said:
That is a coup for Theresa May, whether or not bought by an honour.Theuniondivvie said:Signs of (compromised) life.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/10844991914041548830 -
Seems sensible. There is a vast raft of secondary legislation needed and any and every statutory instrument can be voted down with a single division in either House. That's before the losers of the MV eventual compromise terrorise the ratifying Act. That's if things go well and a deal emerges.FF43 said:This is interesting. EU prepatring for an A50 extension. Possibly a lengthy one:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/eu-preparing-to-delay-brexit-until-at-least-july0 -
I’m told she is currently engaged in preparing his Angel Delight (Pomegranate and Lentil flavour) for tonight’s dinner. Meanwhile, he is torturing Morwenna, the pet tarantula.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. CD13, I want to know what ColinW's Mum makes of this.
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I've told you my Edward Leigh/Durham Union Society story haven't I ? One of the more colourful of our fellow Alumni.AlastairMeeks said:
That is a coup for Theresa May, whether or not bought by an honour.Theuniondivvie said:Signs of (compromised) life.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/10844991914041548830 -
Interesting articles. The 5 star movement seems to have been completely overshadowed by Salvini since they took office. Think they've fallen behind the league in polls too. A rare example of the junior coalition partner doing better than the senior one. Probably the lesson is don't go into a party more radical than you if you consider yourself a radical party.0
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Salvini picked the right ministries to grab the headlines perhaps?Paristonda said:Interesting articles. The 5 star movement seems to have been completely overshadowed by Salvini since they took office. Think they've fallen behind the league in polls too. A rare example of the junior coalition partner doing better than the senior one. Probably the lesson is don't go into a party more radical than you if you consider yourself a radical party.
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No. Please do!Yellow_Submarine said:
I've told you my Edward Leigh/Durham Union Society story haven't I ? One of the more colourful of our fellow Alumni.AlastairMeeks said:
That is a coup for Theresa May, whether or not bought by an honour.Theuniondivvie said:Signs of (compromised) life.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/10844991914041548830 -
She has Flint I think, probably Mann perhaps Snell. But yes you can list them out quite swiftly..AlastairMeeks said:
I can’t see how she will unless she gets epic assistance from Labour MPs. There’s a very big hardcore of rebels with little reason to back down.Yellow_Submarine said:David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.
To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.0 -
And to think that Snell had More United backing.Pulpstar said:
She has Flint I think, probably Mann perhaps Snell. But yes you can list them out quite swiftly..AlastairMeeks said:
I can’t see how she will unless she gets epic assistance from Labour MPs. There’s a very big hardcore of rebels with little reason to back down.Yellow_Submarine said:David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.
To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.0 -
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.MarqueeMark said:
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
0 -
Probably Fitzpatrick and Austin.Pulpstar said:
She has Flint I think, probably Mann perhaps Snell. But yes you can list them out quite swiftly..AlastairMeeks said:
I can’t see how she will unless she gets epic assistance from Labour MPs. There’s a very big hardcore of rebels with little reason to back down.Yellow_Submarine said:David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.
To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.0 -
What is a 'Brexit supporting candidate' in this context? The ultra remainer Tories have been especially effective in some parliamentary wrangling, but neither the deal nor no deal would pass even if all of them were on board. They are not the biggest obstacle. The ERG won't go into an election promising they personally will vote for the deal, not the hard core of them at any rate. So nothing is gained even if the Tories somehow win unless those they gain are all moderate loyalists.David_Evershed said:
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.MarqueeMark said:
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
0 -
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.David_Evershed said:
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.MarqueeMark said:
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
0 -
He effing well did. I voted to endorse him as well. Looking overall I think the 2017 More United slate ( that was elected ) has held up very well given it's by nature a risky business.IanB2 said:
And to think that Snell had More United backing.Pulpstar said:
She has Flint I think, probably Mann perhaps Snell. But yes you can list them out quite swiftly..AlastairMeeks said:
I can’t see how she will unless she gets epic assistance from Labour MPs. There’s a very big hardcore of rebels with little reason to back down.Yellow_Submarine said:David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.
To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.0 -
I am pleased to say I didn't, and resigned from MU when it gave him its backing. It was always obvious he was some way adrift from its values, not to mention his awkward back story.Yellow_Submarine said:
He effing well did. I voted to endorse him as well. Looking overall I think the 2017 More United slate ( that was elected ) has held up very well given it's by nature a risky business.IanB2 said:
And to think that Snell had More United backing.Pulpstar said:
She has Flint I think, probably Mann perhaps Snell. But yes you can list them out quite swiftly..AlastairMeeks said:
I can’t see how she will unless she gets epic assistance from Labour MPs. There’s a very big hardcore of rebels with little reason to back down.Yellow_Submarine said:David Davis to become Duke of London and May will win by 5. You heard it here first.
To be serious for a moment the expectations management by Downing Street has been so good that if May gets the losing margin into double figures people will talk of her gaining momentum.
I suspect MU is defunct now, particularly without Paddy driving it along.0 -
Now the Speaker has ruled that not just the government can put forward legislation in parliament we can expect all sorts of legislation to be proposed by Brexiteers and Remainers.
Bercow will have to accept proposals from both sides or otherwise blow his thin shield of neutrality.
Eventually even the Labour party will realise how rediculous Bercow's ideas are and push for him to resign.
Buckingham would be a plum seat for some lucky Conservtaive Brexiteer.
0 -
That has always been the case. What has changed is that the Speaker is not allowing the government to control how Parliament spends its time.David_Evershed said:Now the Speaker has ruled that not just the government can put forward legislation in parliament we can expect all sorts of legislation to be proposed by Brexiteers and Remainers.
0 -
Not at all. I have no idea at present how it will all pan out and no influence on it either so not really much point me making predictions. I am not sure whether or not the boycott idea is a good one if they do decide that they don't like democracy unless they are winning. I will have to wait and see how the land lies at the time.Recidivist said:
So you have mentally conceded there will be another vote.Richard_Tyndall said:
But it makes for great campaigning being able to show all those dishonest Remain politicians saying there would be no second referendum. Writes the script for Leave.kle4 said:
Intentions don't mean a thing. And of course huge numbers of MPs never intended it.AndyJS said:This is the speech where Cameron said: "If we vote to leave then we will leave, there'll not be another renegotiation and another referendum", at 1 min 16 secs.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7qZhlrbcB80 -
It's a standing order amendment (suspension?) to be put by Grieve, not a speaker ruling. It will need to be carried, first. And it may well be limited in scope, rather than of unlimited application.David_Evershed said:Now the Speaker has ruled that not just the government can put forward legislation in parliament we can expect all sorts of legislation to be proposed by Brexiteers and Remainers.
Bercow will have to accept proposals from both sides or otherwise blow his thin shield of neutrality.
Eventually even the Labour party will realise how rediculous Bercow's ideas are and push for him to resign.
Buckingham would be a plum seat for some lucky Conservtaive Brexiteer.0 -
She had better keep her mouth shut then. Everything she says is offensive.rottenborough said:0 -
This could be very significant : https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/424987-obama-new-blood-remark-has-different-meaning-for-biden0
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The Remainer Conservatives just voted with Labour in a couple of recent votes and are now the swing votes in parliament.kle4 said:
What is a 'Brexit supporting candidate' in this context? The ultra remainer Tories have been especially effective in some parliamentary wrangling, but neither the deal nor no deal would pass even if all of them were on board. They are not the biggest obstacle. The ERG won't go into an election promising they personally will vote for the deal, not the hard core of them at any rate. So nothing is gained even if the Tories somehow win unless those they gain are all moderate loyalists.David_Evershed said:
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.MarqueeMark said:
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
0 -
Except that Bercow has done nothing of the sort. First the allowed amendment was the government business motion. It wasn't legislation. Second it was a single decision not a general rule change.David_Evershed said:Now the Speaker has ruled that not just the government can put forward legislation in parliament we can expect all sorts of legislation to be proposed by Brexiteers and Remainers.
Bercow will have to accept proposals from both sides or otherwise blow his thin shield of neutrality.
Eventually even the Labour party will realise how rediculous Bercow's ideas are and push for him to resign.
Buckingham would be a plum seat for some lucky Conservtaive Brexiteer.0 -
Sure. Switzerland. Three languages, very little sharing of media and distinctly different cultures too. But I never encountered any serious doubt when I lived there of a sense of common purpose, and linguistic misunderstandings of the kind you mention didn't in practice arise.Cyclefree said:
There is more to creating a demos than just these changes. Can you have a real demos without there being a common language say?0 -
Hardly. They are swing on some issues. They could, theoretically, bring down the government. But your scenario was about Brexit supporting candidates for a GE, and that means passing some form of Brexit, and the biggest problem there is 100 Tory MPs who will not back the deal, and at least some number of the other 200 who will not back no deal.David_Evershed said:
The Remainer Conservatives just voted with Labour in a couple of recent votes and are now the swing votes in parliament.kle4 said:
What is a 'Brexit supporting candidate' in this context? The ultra remainer Tories have been especially effective in some parliamentary wrangling, but neither the deal nor no deal would pass even if all of them were on board. They are not the biggest obstacle. The ERG won't go into an election promising they personally will vote for the deal, not the hard core of them at any rate. So nothing is gained even if the Tories somehow win unless those they gain are all moderate loyalists.David_Evershed said:
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.MarqueeMark said:
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
There's no point in a GE for the Tories on the basis of supporting Brexit unless they agree on what Brexit they will back. And they cannot agree on that.0 -
I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.0 -
The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.
The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/eu-preparing-to-delay-brexit-until-at-least-july0 -
Completely immaterial. The ECJ cannot unilaterally shoehorn the EU into treaties when they are explicitly excluded. Not only are the EU not a signatory., they are explicitly excluded as they are not (yet) a nation state.Chris said:
If you think that, you need to read the ECJ judgment. It's here:Richard_Tyndall said:
Doesn't apply. The EU is not a signatory and the convention only applies between nation states.Philip_Thompson said:
Not without violating the Vienna Convention.MarqueeMark said:There's no "forever". We can always abrogate.
http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=en&mode=lst&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=12975340 -
The end of this month? That's tight. Otherwise I don't think it implausible.Black_Rook said:I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
Oh FFS can everyone just stop delaying this issue. It's obvious there are not the votes for the deal, and no deal is not wanted. Just fucking remain already.IanB2 said:The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.
The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/eu-preparing-to-delay-brexit-until-at-least-july0 -
Interesting. Though Corbyn's VoNC will be a useful oppertunity to pledge loyalty. I bet every single Tory MP votes against it.Black_Rook said:I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.0 -
Isn’t a precedent always a single decision? Once you’ve done it the long English custom is you can keep on doing it citing you getting away with it the first time.Yellow_Submarine said:
Except that Bercow has done nothing of the sort. First the allowed amendment was the government business motion. It wasn't legislation. Second it was a single decision not a general rule change.David_Evershed said:Now the Speaker has ruled that not just the government can put forward legislation in parliament we can expect all sorts of legislation to be proposed by Brexiteers and Remainers.
Bercow will have to accept proposals from both sides or otherwise blow his thin shield of neutrality.
Eventually even the Labour party will realise how rediculous Bercow's ideas are and push for him to resign.
Buckingham would be a plum seat for some lucky Conservtaive Brexiteer.0 -
An interesting forecast. But not one I buy.Black_Rook said:I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
The Pro European Conservative Party didn't do so well in the past, and I can't see MPs deserting unless they are deselected. (Which, of course, will be a huge disincentive for the Conservative Party to deselect them ..)
Ultimately, die hard Remain Conservative Remainers are few in number.0 -
+1Richard_Tyndall said:
Completely immaterial. The ECJ cannot unilaterally shoehorn the EU into treaties when they are explicitly excluded. Not only are the EU not a signatory., they are explicitly excluded as they are not (yet) a nation state.Chris said:
If you think that, you need to read the ECJ judgment. It's here:Richard_Tyndall said:
Doesn't apply. The EU is not a signatory and the convention only applies between nation states.Philip_Thompson said:
Not without violating the Vienna Convention.MarqueeMark said:There's no "forever". We can always abrogate.
http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=en&mode=lst&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1297534
0 -
I certainly agree it makes it easier for Bercow and every subsequent Speaker to now do this citing precident. But nothing about it strikes me as a general rule change to apply in all circumstances.notme2 said:
Isn’t a precedent always a single decision? Once you’ve done it the long English custom is you can keep on doing it citing you getting away with it the first time.Yellow_Submarine said:
Except that Bercow has done nothing of the sort. First the allowed amendment was the government business motion. It wasn't legislation. Second it was a single decision not a general rule change.David_Evershed said:Now the Speaker has ruled that not just the government can put forward legislation in parliament we can expect all sorts of legislation to be proposed by Brexiteers and Remainers.
Bercow will have to accept proposals from both sides or otherwise blow his thin shield of neutrality.
Eventually even the Labour party will realise how rediculous Bercow's ideas are and push for him to resign.
Buckingham would be a plum seat for some lucky Conservtaive Brexiteer.0 -
Perhaps they'll resign the whip before they do so, so no Tory will vote for it.Yellow_Submarine said:
Interesting. Though Corbyn's VoNC will be a useful oppertunity to pledge loyalty. I bet every single Tory MP votes against it.Black_Rook said:I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
But I don't expect any to vote for it this week. But he can do another one later. And if May does hold firm and refuse a referendum, the ultra remainers have to decide just how important being a part of the EU is to them.
Just as the ERG must decide if Brexit is worth abandoning if they cannot get it perfectly. So far they say yes it is.0 -
Just for the partisan convenience of the speaker, so much better.Yellow_Submarine said:
I certainly agree it makes it easier for Bercow and every subsequent Speaker to now do this citing precident. But nothing about it strikes me as a general rule change to apply in all circumstances.notme2 said:
Isn’t a precedent always a single decision? Once you’ve done it the long English custom is you can keep on doing it citing you getting away with it the first time.Yellow_Submarine said:
Except that Bercow has done nothing of the sort. First the allowed amendment was the government business motion. It wasn't legislation. Second it was a single decision not a general rule change.David_Evershed said:Now the Speaker has ruled that not just the government can put forward legislation in parliament we can expect all sorts of legislation to be proposed by Brexiteers and Remainers.
Bercow will have to accept proposals from both sides or otherwise blow his thin shield of neutrality.
Eventually even the Labour party will realise how rediculous Bercow's ideas are and push for him to resign.
Buckingham would be a plum seat for some lucky Conservtaive Brexiteer.0 -
Isn't Switzerland a hotbed of sectarian violence where French and German speakers regularly bomb each other's homes and places of business?NickPalmer said:
Sure. Switzerland. Three languages, very little sharing of media and distinctly different cultures too. But I never encountered any serious doubt when I lived there of a sense of common purpose, and linguistic misunderstandings of the kind you mention didn't in practice arise.Cyclefree said:
There is more to creating a demos than just these changes. Can you have a real demos without there being a common language say?0 -
Where's the Like button when you need itkle4 said:
Hardly. They are swing on some issues. They could, theoretically, bring down the government. But your scenario was about Brexit supporting candidates for a GE, and that means passing some form of Brexit, and the biggest problem there is 100 Tory MPs who will not back the deal, and at least some number of the other 200 who will not back no deal.David_Evershed said:
The Remainer Conservatives just voted with Labour in a couple of recent votes and are now the swing votes in parliament.kle4 said:
What is a 'Brexit supporting candidate' in this context? The ultra remainer Tories have been especially effective in some parliamentary wrangling, but neither the deal nor no deal would pass even if all of them were on board. They are not the biggest obstacle. The ERG won't go into an election promising they personally will vote for the deal, not the hard core of them at any rate. So nothing is gained even if the Tories somehow win unless those they gain are all moderate loyalists.David_Evershed said:
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.MarqueeMark said:
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
There's no point in a GE for the Tories on the basis of supporting Brexit unless they agree on what Brexit they will back. And they cannot agree on that.0 -
Man United win away at Spurs.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer with a sixth straight win,
The Norway solution is working - for Man U.0 -
‘Ave some tea then, petSandyRentool said:Thank you @Alanbrooke for a couple of very informative thread headers.
Next week, Hungary?0 -
PB has an item in this week's Sunday Times Atticus (diary) column!
Apparently this site has been "hotly tipping" Moran as next LibDem leader.0 -
No other manager for United, including Busby and Ferguson, have won their first six gamesDavid_Evershed said:Man United win away at Spurs.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer with a sixth straight win,
The Norway solution is working - for Man U.0 -
https://www.politico.eu/article/germanys-far-right-afd-alternative-for-germany-to-campaign-on-possible-eu-exit-alexander-gauland/
The German voters response to this campaign will be very interesting to see.0 -
The pro-European Conservative party won 4 elections on the trot. You can’t compare the current political landscape with 2001.rcs1000 said:
An interesting forecast. But not one I buy.Black_Rook said:I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
The Pro European Conservative Party didn't do so well in the past, and I can't see MPs deserting unless they are deselected. (Which, of course, will be a huge disincentive for the Conservative Party to deselect them ..)
Ultimately, die hard Remain Conservative Remainers are few in number.0 -
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.David_Evershed said:
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.MarqueeMark said:
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
0 -
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1084522779054092289rottenborough said:PB has an item in this week's Sunday Times Atticus (diary) column!
Apparently this site has been "hotly tipping" Moran as next LibDem leader.0 -
They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.AmpfieldAndy said:
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.David_Evershed said:
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.MarqueeMark said:
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
0 -
They might not have a choice. Given that the DUP won’t support May’s deal because of the backstop and Grieve and Co can’t very well plot to seize control of Gov business as he is reported to be trying once May loses, he and his rebels can hardly support the Gov in a VONC so Corbyn could well succeed.kle4 said:
Hardly. They are swing on some issues. They could, theoretically, bring down the government. But your scenario was about Brexit supporting candidates for a GE, and that means passing some form of Brexit, and the biggest problem there is 100 Tory MPs who will not back the deal, and at least some number of the other 200 who will not back no deal.David_Evershed said:
The Remainer Conservatives just voted with Labour in a couple of recent votes and are now the swing votes in parliament.kle4 said:
What is a 'Brexit supporting candidate' in this context? The ultra remainer Tories have been especially effective in some parliamentary wrangling, but neither the deal nor no deal would pass even if all of them were on board. They are not the biggest obstacle. The ERG won't go into an election promising they personally will vote for the deal, not the hard core of them at any rate. So nothing is gained even if the Tories somehow win unless those they gain are all moderate loyalists.David_Evershed said:
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.MarqueeMark said:
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
There's no point in a GE for the Tories on the basis of supporting Brexit unless they agree on what Brexit they will back. And they cannot agree on that.0 -
Indeed, if every Remain supporting Tory MP backed the deal, Mrs May would still lose bigly.kle4 said:
They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.AmpfieldAndy said:
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.David_Evershed said:
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.MarqueeMark said:
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
The best theory about I've heard why Leaver Tories are voting against the deal is that they never wanted to Leave in the first (they supported Leave for professional reasons) and Parliament intervening to stop a No Deal Brexit allows Leaver Tories to be defeated with honour.0 -
If she had the Leavers substantially behind her, the Remainers would fall in line. The Leavers are emboldening the few Remainers to make hay.AmpfieldAndy said:
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.David_Evershed said:
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.MarqueeMark said:
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
0 -
He might. But an election still solves nothing unless the intractable in the party become tractable. Why would they? For the sake of Brexit? If that were all it took the deal would not be about to be so comprehensively humiliated.AmpfieldAndy said:
They might not have a choice. Given that the DUP won’t support May’s deal because of the backstop and Grieve and Co can’t very well plot to seize control of Gov business as he is reported to be trying once May loses, he and his rebels can hardly support the Gov in a VONC so Corbyn could well succeed.kle4 said:
Hardly. They are swing on some issues. They could, theoretically, bring down the government. But your scenario was about Brexit supporting candidates for a GE, and that means passing some form of Brexit, and the biggest problem there is 100 Tory MPs who will not back the deal, and at least some number of the other 200 who will not back no deal.David_Evershed said:
The Remainer Conservatives just voted with Labour in a couple of recent votes and are now the swing votes in parliament.kle4 said:
What is a 'Brexit supporting candidate' in this context? The ultra remainer Tories have been especially effective in some parliamentary wrangling, but neither the deal nor no deal would pass even if all of them were on board. They are not the biggest obstacle. The ERG won't go into an election promising they personally will vote for the deal, not the hard core of them at any rate. So nothing is gained even if the Tories somehow win unless those they gain are all moderate loyalists.David_Evershed said:
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.MarqueeMark said:
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
There's no point in a GE for the Tories on the basis of supporting Brexit unless they agree on what Brexit they will back. And they cannot agree on that.0 -
They are unreliable. The DUP and ERG have both said they oppose the deal but not the Gov so Grieve and his rebels are a bigger threat in pursuing their attempts to seize control of Gov business. They are also making it more likely that Corbyn will win the election.kle4 said:
They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.AmpfieldAndy said:
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.David_Evershed said:
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.MarqueeMark said:
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
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Significant IMO. It means, I think, that the EU no longer sees the cliff edge acting to its advantage. It really doesn't want No Deal, it wants the UK to make a decision without dragging the EU into its mess. It can live with limbo but it doesn't want to force a decision that is regretted later.IanB2 said:The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.
The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/eu-preparing-to-delay-brexit-until-at-least-july
It should mean the UK is less likely to leave on March 29 and less likely to go for No Deal.0 -
Leavers have already said they don’t support the deal but they do support the Gov. DUP have said the same. None of the Remainers rebels - either Grieve’s or Boles’ - have said the same and unlike them, Leavers are not reported to be trying to seize control of Gov business. Remain MPs want power without responsibility.AlastairMeeks said:
If she had the Leavers substantially behind her, the Remainers would fall in line. The Leavers are emboldening the few Remainers to make hay.AmpfieldAndy said:
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.David_Evershed said:
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.MarqueeMark said:
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....Sean_F said:Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
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