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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why changes to the primary structure are going to make WH2020

As we look towards 2020 for the next White House Race leading figures within the Democratic party are ready to follow Elizabeth Warren and put their hats into the ring in the battle to be the nominee.
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You'd think that California would be ripe territory for the political equivalent of Larry David if it weren't for Kamala Harris.
The fact remains Iowa and New Hampshire still vote first before other states and Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 and lost Iowa by less than 1%. If he wins both he will almost certainly be nominee as all the momentum will be his, no candidate in post war history has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be nominee.
As for Harris she is yet another California coastal liberal who would lose the rustbelt and the Electoral College, little better than Warren. O'Rourke really needed to have beaten Cruz not lost to have a chance
One of his opponent's aides in TX race said something along the lines of god help any dem who runs against him as far as ground game and retail stuff goes.
It arguably makes selection of a progressive nominee, as opposed to one with the best chance of getting elected, slightly less urgent for the left of the party.
If Hillary hadn't run the sort of campaign that made the Tories 2017 GE campaign look good, she would have beaten Trump.
Bernie is history.
Anyway, I'm continuing to lay the favourites. I'm not at all sure that anyone should be under 10 yet.
Bar Biden he is the Democrats best shot of beating Trump in the Electoral College
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/california-moved-its-primary-up-what-does-that-mean-for-2020/
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/amp/ncna953976?fbclid=IwAR0YrAnR1pQJ1-IWmn4ZK5XUUsLB_-f2lbyPdNb_vkWNN59bkRazZXF2I4g&__twitter_impression=true
https://twitter.com/julianroepcke/status/1081089419728306176?s=21
But then Mane got away with his assault on Lichtsteiner, so I don't have that much sympathy.
Brexit: The DUP says there is 'no way' it will back PM's deal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46757459?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
I do blame him for tolerating misogyny in his campaign. But so will rather a lot of Democrats, so what goes around...
https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/what-stephan-lichtsteiner-appeared-sadio-13793527
She tries to excuse away a guy who was a gang member, got caught for an armed robbery, turned informant, but then while in juvenile prison spent the whole time fighting, ordered a hit on another prisoner, etc etc etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQPmEq30WtE
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1081177511592108032
Don't shoot the messenger, honestly. The reason the Bernie Bros hated Hillary is the same reason she lost the rust belt.
http://www.thefa.com/football-rules-governance/discipline/fairplay
They are going to hassle the hell out of him with investigations and subpoenas.
I suspect the next couple of years will be rather less fun for him than the last two.
In the meantime, when Mueller comes for Junior, the meltdown from Toadus will be a joyous spectacle to behold.
Given my heritage I wasn't allowed to go to football grounds in the 80s, as they weren't very welcoming.
You can change your job, you can change your name, you change your house, you can even change your wife and your gender, but you can never change the football team you support.
The magazine says oral arguments before the Court of Appeals will be scheduled for November or December, and a final decision will be delivered no later than 31 August 2019.
https://www.theweek.co.uk/61705/serial-where-is-adnan-syed-now
I have my own theory on that case, but I wouldn't post it on here, because I don't fancy getting sued.
I wouldn't recommend it, the nightlife is shit.
Archive footage has emerged of Corbyn at a conference in London in 2011
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6557605/Corbyn-applauds-speaker-conference-demanded-dismantlement-state-Israel.html
We know that Corbyn has always been, and likely remains, an anti-Zionist.
Its a bit like saying, I'm not a racist, because I always cheer for the England football team and they have Dele Alli playing for them.
The Rabbi appears to be asking for a settlement where Jews and Arabs can live together in peace and harmony.
And Jeremy Corbyn applauds it! THE ABSOLUTE MONSTER.
Sorry .....
And I'm sure he'll take the utmost care before indicting him.
Joined the latter to get tickets for England matches.
https://order-order.com/2019/01/04/pmi-data-uk-eurozone/
On the subject of YCCC, have you noted what the guy who averaged around 14 for them is currently doing in Australia... ?
It has been interesting reading the comments from all sides this morning regarding the No Dealers. Those of us who are, at least somewhat, averse to No Deal are in great danger of making the same mistake as was superbly illustrated in last night's fascinating programme on the Waco Siege.
Whilst the FBI response was dangerously split between those who wanted to negotiate the Davidians out and those who wanted to force an end to the siege, both parts of the FBI response made a fundamental error in believing that the Davidians would behave rationally and would in the end choose surrender over death. Even as the building burned around them they chose not to walk out, something that left the FBI teams dumbfounded.
It is not as if they had not been warned of this with professors with expertise in religious doomsday cults doing everything they could to persuade the FBI to change their tack.
Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.
It was a remarkable programme by the way. Well worth watching if you get the chance. The certainty of the Branch Davidians even today is utterly chilling.
Surely should have been 12 or 14!
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/1822993
As for no dealers, no. No one is under or overestimating them. They are bonkers and morons. Not in that order necessarily. I have no doubt that they will cut off their noses to spite their faces and let the dust settle around them as they declare victory.
The big challenge, it was put to me by someone who knows, was to allow the no dealers the opportunity to change their minds in an "honourable" way so that they don't lose face. I'm not sure that this has happened but I expect the narrative to build whereby such an excuse can be found.
All football fans are biased but Liverpool fans are truly the most delusional.