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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why changes to the primary structure are going to make WH2020

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  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    The temperature of PB is quite febrile this afternoon.

    The temperature can only rise from hereonin. What larks!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    It has been interesting reading the comments from all sides this morning regarding the No Dealers.
    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edge. I am resigned to No-Deal Brexit happening.
    I am not resigned to it. I am bloody furious about it.

    If ever we needed the fabled men in grey suits to tell her to stop being so bloody stupid, it's now.
    Can't we settle for ladies in stylish shoes?

    That brings you and @Beverley_C into the equation...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    It has been interesting reading the comments from all sides this morning regarding the No Dealers.
    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edge. I am resigned to No-Deal Brexit happening.
    If ever we needed the fabled men in grey suits to tell her to stop being so bloody stupid, it's now.
    The trouble is, half the 'men in grey suits' are the problem....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    French presidential scores in the 1st round, %, for the candidate who ultimately won.

    1981 25.9
    1988 34.1
    1995 20.8
    2002 19.9
    2007 31.2
    2012 28.6

    Macron is somewhere in the middle, and the scores are more a function of how many candidates/viable candidates are out there.

    LESSON: don't compare apples and pears.

    Yes, the original tweet arguing that Macron was doing better than three-term winning Thatcher was very ill-advised.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Just for fun, I googled 'brexit'. The first response said it was a portmanteau. I haven't heard that word since people talked about pantechnicons and charabancs.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.

    Iowa will be a good test of ground ops - I reckon Beto could do well there and I see Warren performing well in New Hampshire because it borders on to Massachusetts
    Don't forget that Warren polls just 11% in her native New Hampshire for the democratic nomination
    The DNA test was her Chappaquidick.
    Did someone die?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    If anyone wants a full measure of Gove's impact on education:

    https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-dfe-finally-admits-teacher-supply-has-worsened
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I'm not sure it is good for the Dems to have California so early.

    I think it's a terrible thing for the Dems to have California early.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Pulpstar said:
    I have foreseen my own death. After 3 near misses my demise will be caused by a Deliveroo cyclist knocking me off the pavement and under an oncoming bus.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    From the makers of Batshit I, Batshit II, and Batshit with a Vengeance...

    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1081208536573595651?s=21
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,502
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    It's good to see that there are some fixed points and the lodestar of pb is that transport discussions trump everything else. Even Brexit, it seems.

    Did someone say trains? :D
    I just realised that I will probably get on and off trains over 1000 times this year.
    I haven't been on a train since I was a teenager.
    I quite like train travel. It's the price which puts me off. Plus the cost of getting to and from the things.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Civility in Congress.... day 1 and a new congresswoman calls trump a motherf*cker

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/congresswoman-rashida-tlaib-curses-trump-call-impeachment/story?id=60153668
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    From the makers of Batshit I, Batshit II, and Batshit with a Vengeance...

    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1081208536573595651?s=21

    What? We leave at almost exactly the hungry gap.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Tim_B said:

    Civility in Congress.... day 1 and a new congresswoman calls trump a motherf*cker

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/congresswoman-rashida-tlaib-curses-trump-call-impeachment/story?id=60153668

    That’s disgraceful.
    If anything, he’s a daughterf*cker.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.

    Iowa will be a good test of ground ops - I reckon Beto could do well there and I see Warren performing well in New Hampshire because it borders on to Massachusetts
    Don't forget that Warren polls just 11% in her native New Hampshire for the democratic nomination
    I hadn’t realised she was 1/1024th New Hampshirite.
    Ms Warren's Native American DNA, as identified in the test, may not be large, but it is wrong to say it is as little as 1/1,024th or that it is less than the average European American.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/elizabeth-warren-dna-test-fact-check-native-american-ancestry-boston-globe-journalists-trump-a8595001.html
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    It has been interesting reading the comments from all sides this morning regarding the No Dealers.
    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edge. I am resigned to No-Deal Brexit happening.
    I am not resigned to it. I am bloody furious about it.

    If ever we needed the fabled men in grey suits to tell her to stop being so bloody stupid, it's now.
    I think she's telling the men in grey suits not to be stupid.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Alistair said:

    From the makers of Batshit I, Batshit II, and Batshit with a Vengeance...

    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1081208536573595651?s=21

    What? We leave at almost exactly the hungry gap.
    I'm already eyeing up the wood pigeons in my garden.
  • From the makers of Batshit I, Batshit II, and Batshit with a Vengeance...

    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1081208536573595651?s=21

    Obesity solution.

    No Deal brought to you by courtesy of the NHS ?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    What is the PB consensus on the right time to start stockpiling food and medicine?

    Do we start when the Christmas tree goes out on Saturday night?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    It's good to see that there are some fixed points and the lodestar of pb is that transport discussions trump everything else. Even Brexit, it seems.

    Did someone say trains? :D
    I just realised that I will probably get on and off trains over 1000 times this year.
    I haven't been on a train since I was a teenager.
    I quite like train travel. It's the price which puts me off. Plus the cost of getting to and from the things.
    It's not really an option for me.They are like hen's teeth here, although MARTA is moving out to Gwinnett county. That also isn't much use to me.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited January 2019
    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    It has been interesting reading the comments from all sides this morning regarding the No Dealers.
    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edge. I am resigned to No-Deal Brexit happening.
    I am not resigned to it. I am bloody furious about it.

    If ever we needed the fabled men in grey suits to tell her to stop being so bloody stupid, it's now.
    What are they supposed to tell her. She has a negotiated settlement ready to go.
    An agreement which she cannot get past her own party let alone the House of Commons. The EU aren't interested in reaching an agreement with Mrs May. They want an agreement with Britain.

    So the grey-suited ones need to tell her to revoke Article 50 (which at least preserves the status quo) and then resign. So that someone else can -

    (a) learn from the last 2 years and work out what Britain should do - there is plenty to be learnt, after all;
    (b) work out what Britain's European strategy should be - whether in or out and, if out, how to get out in a sensible way and, if in, what that should mean;
    (c) do this in conjunction with colleagues / experts / voters etc i.e. build a consensus;
    (d) put this forward in a GE as part of a coherent programme;
    (e) try and put the Tory party back together again.

    Frankly, I don't care about (e). The Tory party seems utterly split to me and it might be better if it formally split so that the ERG can go off and be pillocks in NI. But (a) - (d) are in the interests of the country. And I am utterly sick of Mrs May and other Tories playing games with the future of the country and the people in it as part of their own mid-life crisis / narcissistic ambitious game playing. If the Tory party needs some therapy can't they get one of their rich donors to pay for it, rather than inflict this nonsense on the rest of us?

    For the love of God, something as important as how we patrol our sea borders to prevent undesirables (by which I mean criminals and terrorists not some desperate Iranians) from entering the country is not dealt with as an important matter of public policy but as background to one politician's ambitions. It is pathetic. It is utterly negligent. And it is potentially dangerous for the rest of us.

    So, yes, I am absolutely fucking furious with our politicians. How the fuck dare they mess with my childrens' futures because they cannot fucking grow up and behave like the fucking adults they are meant to be.

    (Apologies - sometimes only swearing will do.)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    From the makers of Batshit I, Batshit II, and Batshit with a Vengeance...

    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1081208536573595651?s=21

    What? We leave at almost exactly the hungry gap.
    I'm already eyeing up the wood pigeons in my garden.
    It is surprising how much storecupboard food you can fit into a cubic metre.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited January 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    It has been interesting reading the comments from all sides this morning regarding the No Dealers.
    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edge. I am resigned to No-Deal Brexit happening.
    I am not resigned to it. I am bloody furious about it.

    If ever we needed the fabled men in grey suits to tell her to stop being so bloody stupid, it's now.
    I think she's telling the men in grey suits not to be stupid.
    The Tory party doesn’t belong to the men in grey suits anymore. Striped blazers and flapping coats have become de rigeur.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    It has been interesting reading the comments from all sides this morning regarding the No Dealers.
    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edge. I am resigned to No-Deal Brexit happening.
    I am not resigned to it. I am bloody furious about it.

    If ever we needed the fabled men in grey suits to tell her to stop being so bloody stupid, it's now.
    I think she's telling the men in grey suits not to be stupid.
    All they need to do is play that Abba bit from the Tory conference.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    What is the PB consensus on the right time to start stockpiling food and medicine?

    Do we start when the Christmas tree goes out on Saturday night?

    Earlier the better for long lived food (tinned). I will be laying down a 6 month supply of tinned tomatoes, olives, capers and linguine. I will not go without my Puttenesca if hard Brexit happens.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,502
    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edgehappening.
    I am not resigned to it. I am bloody furious about it.

    If ever we needed the fabled men in grey suits to tell her to stop being so bloody stupid, it's now.
    What are they supposed to tell her. She has a negotiated settlement ready to go.
    An agreement which she cannot get past her own party let alone the House of Commons. The EU aren't interested in reaching an agreement with Mrs May. They want an agreement with Britain.

    So the grey-suited ones need to tell her to revoke Article 50 (which at least preserves the status quo) and then resign. So that someone else can -

    (a) learn from the last 2 years and work out what Britain should do - there is plenty to be learnt, after all;
    (b) work out what Britain's European strategy should be - whether in or out and, if out, how to get out in a sensible way and, if in, what that should mean;
    (c) do this in conjunction with colleagues / experts / voters etc i.e. build a consensus;
    (d) put this forward in a GE as part of a coherent programme;
    (e) try and put the Tory party back together again.

    Frankly, I don't care about (e). The Tory party seems utterly split to me and it might be better if it formally split so that the ERG can go off and be pillocks in NI. But (a) - (d) are in the interests of the country. And I am utterly sick of Mrs May and other Tories playing games with the future of the country and the people in it as part of their own mid-life crisis / narcissistic ambitious game playing. If the Tory party needs some therapy can't they get one of their rich donors to pay for it, rather than inflict this nonsense on the rest of us?

    For the love of God, something as important as how we patrol our sea borders to prevent undesirables (by which I mean criminals and terrorists not some desperate Iranians) from entering the country is not dealt with as an important matter of public policy but as background to one politician's ambitions. It is pathetic. It is utterly negligent. And it is potentially dangerous for the rest of us.

    So, yes, I am absolutely fucking furious with our politicians. How the fuck dare they mess with my childrens' futures because they cannot fucking grow up and behave like the fucking adults they are meant to be.

    (Apologies - sometimes only swearing will do.)
    Seconded. The main thrust I mean, not necessarily the swearing.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    What is the PB consensus on the right time to start stockpiling food and medicine?

    Do we start when the Christmas tree goes out on Saturday night?

    Probably, you should be moving to the country. In Inner London, people will be eating each other in April.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    It has been interesting reading the comments from all sides this morning regarding the No Dealers.
    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edge. I am resigned to No-Deal Brexit happening.
    I am not resigned to it. I am bloody furious about it.

    If ever we needed the fabled men in grey suits to tell her to stop being so bloody stupid, it's now.
    Can't we settle for ladies in stylish shoes?

    That brings you and @Beverley_C into the equation...
    Actually I have now acquired some very nice blue shoes and some even more gorgeous purple ones.

    I am feeling quite pleased with myself. One of the pairs has quite sharp heels, which will come in very useful when I decide to step hard on the feet of certain politicians.......
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.
    he No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edge. I am resigned to No-Deal Brexit happening.
    I am not resigneit's now.
    What are they supposed to tell her. She has a negotiated settlement ready to go.
    An agreement which she cannot get past her own party let alone the House of Commons. The EU aren't interested in reaching an agreement with Mrs May. They want an agreement with Britain.

    So the grey-suited ones need to tell her to revoke Article 50 (which at least preserves the status quo) and then resign. So that someone else can -

    (a) learn from the last 2 years and work out what Britain should do - there is plenty to be learnt, after all;
    (b) work out what Britain's European strategy should be - whether in or out and, if out, how to get out in a sensible way and, if in, what that should mean;
    (c) do this in conjunction with colleagues / experts / voters etc i.e. build a consensus;
    (d) put this forward in a GE as part of a coherent programme;
    (e) try and put the Tory party back together again.

    Frankly, I don't care about (e). The Tory party seems utterly split to me and it might be better if it formally split so that the ERG can go off and be pillocks in NI. But (a) - (d) are in the interests of the country. And I am utterly sick of Mrs May and other Tories playing games with the future of the country and the people in it as part of their own mid-life crisis / narcissistic ambitious game playing. If the Tory party needs some therapy can't they get one of their rich donors to pay for it, rather than inflict this nonsense on the rest of us?

    For the love of God, something as important as how we patrol our sea borders to prevent undesirables (by which I mean criminals and terrorists not some desperate Iranians) from entering the country is not dealt with as an important matter of public policy but as background to one politician's ambitions. It is pathetic. It is utterly negligent. And it is potentially dangerous for the rest of us.

    So, yes, I am absolutely fucking furious with our politicians. How the fuck dare they mess with my childrens' futures because they cannot fucking grow up and behave like the fucking adults they are meant to be.

    (Apologies - sometimes only swearing will do.)
    Welcome to the club, Cyclefree.
    Some of us have been making these points for over two years now, and called “Remoaners” and “Traitors” for our pains.

    The Tory party has become utterly contemptible. Major’s coneline cock-ups look like an Augustan age of wise leadership.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Tim_B said:

    Civility in Congress.... day 1 and a new congresswoman calls trump a motherf*cker

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/congresswoman-rashida-tlaib-curses-trump-call-impeachment/story?id=60153668

    That’s disgraceful.
    If anything, he’s a daughterf*cker.
    He's had his finger in her. 100%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edgehappening.
    I am not resigned to it. I am bloody furious about it.

    If ever we needed the fabled men in grey suits to tell her to stop being so bloody stupid, it's now.
    What are they supposed to tell her. She has a negotiated settlement ready to go.
    So the grey-suited ones need to tell her to revoke Article 50 (which at least preserves the status quo) and then resign. So that someone else can -

    (a) learn from the last 2 years and work out what Britain should do - there is plenty to be learnt, after all;
    Laughably transparent. If we need to figure out how to leave a suspension can be requested, even if it might be refused. Revoking will never be undone, and everyone knows that, it is blatantly about ensuring remain happens as a default. Which is fine, but let's not pretend that revocation is anything other than about remaining.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.
    he No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edge. I am resigned to No-Deal Brexit happening.
    I am not resigneit's now.
    What are they supposed to tell her. She has a negotiated settlement ready to go.
    An agreement which she

    (a) learn from the last 2 years and work out what Britain should do - there is plenty to be learnt, after all;
    (b) work out what Britain's European strategy should be - whether in or out and, if out, how to get out in a sensible way and, if in, what that should mean;
    (c) do this in conjunction with colleagues / experts / voters etc i.e. build a consensus;
    (d) put this forward in a GE as part of a coherent programme;
    (e) try and put the Tory party back together again.

    Frankly, I don't care about (e). The Tory party seems utterly split to me and it might be better if it formally split so that the ERG can go off and be pillocks in NI. But (a) - (d) are in the interests of the country. And I am utterly sick of Mrs May and other Tories playing games with the future of the country and the people in it as part of their own mid-life crisis / narcissistic ambitious game playing. If the Tory party needs some therapy can't they get one of their rich donors to pay for it, rather than inflict this nonsense on the rest of us?

    For the love of God, something as important as how we patrol our sea borders to prevent undesirables (by which I mean criminals and terrorists not some desperate Iranians) from entering the country is not dealt with as an important matter of public policy but as background to one politician's ambitions. It is pathetic. It is utterly negligent. And it is potentially dangerous for the rest of us.

    So, yes, I am absolutely fucking furious with our politicians. How the fuck dare they mess with my childrens' futures because they cannot fucking grow up and behave like the fucking adults they are meant to be.

    (Apologies - sometimes only swearing will do.)
    Welcome to the club, Cyclefree.
    Some of us have been making these points for over two years now, and called “Remoaners” and “Traitors” for our pains.

    The Tory party has become utterly contemptible. Major’s coneline cock-ups look like an Augustan age of wise leadership.
    Shame he couldn’t bring himself to have a referendum on Maastricht, as Maggie suggested. Would have been No and he’d have saved everyone an awful of trouble.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    On another subject - the US gov't partial shutdown. It's now at 2 weeks and I don't detect any overwhelming 'blame' aimed at either party. Normally the blame escalates pretty quickly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Sean_F said:

    What is the PB consensus on the right time to start stockpiling food and medicine?

    Do we start when the Christmas tree goes out on Saturday night?

    Probably, you should be moving to the country. In Inner London, people will be eating each other in April.
    Your answer sums up the problem with the entire No Deal debate.

    One either believes there will be no ill effects whatsoever, as it is all "Project Fear". Or one believes that medicines and food will become hard to come by.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    An agreement which she cannot get past her own party let alone the House of Commons. The EU aren't interested in reaching an agreement with Mrs May. They want an agreement with Britain.

    So the grey-suited ones need to tell her to revoke Article 50 (which at least preserves the status quo) and then resign. So that someone else can -

    (a) learn from the last 2 years and work out what Britain should do - there is plenty to be learnt, after all;
    (b) work out what Britain's European strategy should be - whether in or out and, if out, how to get out in a sensible way and, if in, what that should mean;
    (c) do this in conjunction with colleagues / experts / voters etc i.e. build a consensus;
    (d) put this forward in a GE as part of a coherent programme;
    (e) try and put the Tory party back together again.

    Frankly, I don't care about (e). The Tory party seems utterly split to me and it might be better if it formally split so that the ERG can go off and be pillocks in NI. But (a) - (d) are in the interests of the country. And I am utterly sick of Mrs May and other Tories playing games with the future of the country and the people in it as part of their own mid-life crisis / narcissistic ambitious game playing. If the Tory party needs some therapy can't they get one of their rich donors to pay for it, rather than inflict this nonsense on the rest of us?

    For the love of God, something as important as how we patrol our sea borders to prevent undesirables (by which I mean criminals and terrorists not some desperate Iranians) from entering the country is not dealt with as an important matter of public policy but as background to one politician's ambitions. It is pathetic. It is utterly negligent. And it is potentially dangerous for the rest of us.

    So, yes, I am absolutely fucking furious with our politicians. How the fuck dare they mess with my childrens' futures because they cannot fucking grow up and behave like the fucking adults they are meant to be.

    (Apologies - sometimes only swearing will do.)
    Welcome to the club, Cyclefree.
    Some of us have been making these points for over two years now, and called “Remoaners” and “Traitors” for our pains.

    The Tory party has become utterly contemptible. Major’s coneline cock-ups look like an Augustan age of wise leadership.
    I have been in the club for some time. But I had hoped that sense would prevail. Now I've lost patience. Tories - the patriotic party: what an absolute joke!

    In the words of Terry Thomas, they are all an absolute shower. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oU_HFZ2Tr0
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sean_F said:

    What is the PB consensus on the right time to start stockpiling food and medicine?

    Do we start when the Christmas tree goes out on Saturday night?

    Probably, you should be moving to the country. In Inner London, people will be eating each other in April.
    I doubt it will come to that.

    But if it did, widespread cannibalism is certainly a price worth paying for the freedom to, er, have blue passports.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Tim_B said:

    Civility in Congress.... day 1 and a new congresswoman calls trump a motherf*cker

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/congresswoman-rashida-tlaib-curses-trump-call-impeachment/story?id=60153668

    I think the civility ship sailed long ago. Can one imagine any previous President hurling out the insults on Twitter that Trump has?*

    * One has to imagine a world in which Twitter existed of course.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edgehappening.
    I am not resigned to it. I am bloody furious about it.

    If ever we needed the fabled men in grey suits to tell her to stop being so bloody stupid, it's now.
    What are they supposed to tell her. She has a negotiated settlement ready to go.
    So the grey-suited ones need to tell her to revoke Article 50 (which at least preserves the status quo) and then resign. So that someone else can -

    (a) learn from the last 2 years and work out what Britain should do - there is plenty to be learnt, after all;
    Laughably transparent. If we need to figure out how to leave a suspension can be requested, even if it might be refused. Revoking will never be undone, and everyone knows that, it is blatantly about ensuring remain happens as a default. Which is fine, but let's not pretend that revocation is anything other than about remaining.
    Leavers have had two and a half years to come up with a plan. They've failed. That's why I think Remain is now the better option.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,739
    Mortimer said:


    Some of us have been making these points for over two years now, and called “Remoaners” and “Traitors” for our pains.

    The Tory party has become utterly contemptible. Major’s coneline cock-ups look like an Augustan age of wise leadership.

    Shame he couldn’t bring himself to have a referendum on Maastricht, as Maggie suggested. Would have been No and he’d have saved everyone an awful of trouble.
    It would have been Yes, and would have laid the (political) ghost of Maggie to rest by seeing her defeated at the ballot box.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Civility in Congress.... day 1 and a new congresswoman calls trump a motherf*cker

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/congresswoman-rashida-tlaib-curses-trump-call-impeachment/story?id=60153668

    I think the civility ship sailed long ago. Can one imagine any previous President hurling out the insults on Twitter that Trump has?*

    * One has to imagine a world in which Twitter existed of course.
    I can imagine LBJ giving it a good go.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,285

    RobD said:

    It's good to see that there are some fixed points and the lodestar of pb is that transport discussions trump everything else. Even Brexit, it seems.

    Did someone say trains? :D
    I just realised that I will probably get on and off trains over 1000 times this year.
    I had no idea you were so indecisive.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    From the makers of Batshit I, Batshit II, and Batshit with a Vengeance...

    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1081208536573595651?s=21

    Perhaps just me but there is something very sweet about this.

    It's a little bit Dad's Army, Frank Spencer, Mr Micawber, Chris Grayling.

    The Best of British, in other words. We don't march to any drum. We bumble around.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Mortimer said:


    Some of us have been making these points for over two years now, and called “Remoaners” and “Traitors” for our pains.

    The Tory party has become utterly contemptible. Major’s coneline cock-ups look like an Augustan age of wise leadership.

    Shame he couldn’t bring himself to have a referendum on Maastricht, as Maggie suggested. Would have been No and he’d have saved everyone an awful of trouble.
    It would have been Yes, and would have laid the (political) ghost of Maggie to rest by seeing her defeated at the ballot box.
    I suggested there ought to have been a vote at Maastricht upthread (and for Dublin).

    Yes, it was a failure of leadership by Major.

    However, May makes Major look like Bismarck.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Mortimer said:



    Shame he couldn’t bring himself to have a referendum on Maastricht, as Maggie suggested. Would have been No and he’d have saved everyone an awful of trouble.

    But that is irrelevant. Politicians have to work with the UK as it is now, not as it might have been had somebody done something different 25 years ago. And the UK as it is now is indeed the disastrous clusterf*uck so elegantly described by Ms Cyclefree.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    edited January 2019


    Your answer sums up the problem with the entire No Deal debate.

    One either believes there will be no ill effects whatsoever, as it is all "Project Fear". Or one believes that medicines and food will become hard to come by.

    That's it. I think No Deal causes needless disruption,. It doesn't herald the Four Horsemen.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    It's good to see that there are some fixed points and the lodestar of pb is that transport discussions trump everything else. Even Brexit, it seems.

    Did someone say trains? :D
    I just realised that I will probably get on and off trains over 1000 times this year.
    I had no idea you were so indecisive.
    I sympathize with the poor man having to take so many trains.I had a car like that once.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    Mortimer said:


    Some of us have been making these points for over two years now, and called “Remoaners” and “Traitors” for our pains.

    The Tory party has become utterly contemptible. Major’s coneline cock-ups look like an Augustan age of wise leadership.

    Shame he couldn’t bring himself to have a referendum on Maastricht, as Maggie suggested. Would have been No and he’d have saved everyone an awful of trouble.
    It would have been Yes, and would have laid the (political) ghost of Maggie to rest by seeing her defeated at the ballot box.
    Denmark voted No to Maastricht, even France only backed it 51% to 49%
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Meanwhile, here's one MP's take on that tweet:

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/1081236512187011073
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edgehappening.
    I am not resigned to it. I am bloody furious about it.

    If ever we needed the fabled men in grey suits to tell her to stop being so bloody stupid, it's now.
    What are they supposed to tell her. She has a negotiated settlement ready to go.
    So the grey-suited ones need to tell her to revoke Article 50 (which at least preserves the status quo) and then resign. So that someone else can -

    (a) learn from the last 2 years and work out what Britain should do - there is plenty to be learnt, after all;
    Laughably transparent. If we need to figure out how to leave a suspension can be requested, even if it might be refused. Revoking will never be undone, and everyone knows that, it is blatantly about ensuring remain happens as a default. Which is fine, but let's not pretend that revocation is anything other than about remaining.
    Leavers have had two and a half years to come up with a plan. They've failed. That's why I think Remain is now the better option.
    In that case, it's Remain until the EU itself ceases to exist.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Tim_B said:

    On another subject - the US gov't partial shutdown. It's now at 2 weeks and I don't detect any overwhelming 'blame' aimed at either party. Normally the blame escalates pretty quickly.

    Agreed. It's notable that neither Trump nor the Democrats seem to be on the hook just yet.

    That will change, but it's hard to see exactly how just yet.

    There's a fascinating article in the Washington Post about how difficult negotiating with Trump is. Essentially, he'll say something in a meeting, and you'll think that a settlement is closer (such as when he agreed with Pence's proposal for $2.5bn of wall funding), and then 12 hours later he'll decry that same ideas on Twitter: it's $5bn or nothing.

    It makes the Democrats incredibly cautious of making any concessions.

    So: what happens? Is it possible to see a situation where a dozen Republicans agree $2bn of wall funding with the Democrats and simply go to Trump and tell him they'll hand him a veto proof vote if he doesn't comply? Or will the Democrats get the blame and eventually fold?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    An agreement which she cannot get past her own party let alone the House of Commons. The EU aren't interested in reaching an agreement with Mrs May. They want an agreement with Britain.

    So the grey-suited ones need to tell her to revoke Article 50 (which at least preserves the status quo) and then resign. So that someone else can -

    (a) learn from the last 2 years and work out what Britain should do - there is plenty to be learnt, after all;
    (b) work out what Britain's European strategy should be - whether in or out and, if out, how to get out in a sensible way and, if in, what that should mean;
    (c) do this in conjunction with colleagues / experts / voters etc i.e. build a consensus;
    (d) put this forward in a GE as part of a coherent programme;
    (e) try and put the Tory party back together again.

    (Apologies - sometimes only swearing will do.)
    Welcome to the club, Cyclefree.
    Some of us have been making these points for over two years now, and called “Remoaners” and “Traitors” for our pains.

    The Tory party has become utterly contemptible. Major’s coneline cock-ups look like an Augustan age of wise leadership.
    I have been in the club for some time. But I had hoped that sense would prevail. Now I've lost patience. Tories - the patriotic party: what an absolute joke!

    In the words of Terry Thomas, they are all an absolute shower. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oU_HFZ2Tr0
    Superb! If I had time, and any editing skills whatsoever, I would use this to make a montage of Davis, Rees-Mogg, Fox, Johnson and Gove.

    Absolutely none of what they promised has come true.

    At least now Gove is said to be shitting himself. He should resign in disgrace and be exiled to Tristan de Cunha.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    What is the PB consensus on the right time to start stockpiling food and medicine?

    Do we start when the Christmas tree goes out on Saturday night?

    Don't be too hasty about throwing out the tree. Pine needle soup could be a handy addition to the larder in the Spring.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Chris said:

    What is the PB consensus on the right time to start stockpiling food and medicine?

    Do we start when the Christmas tree goes out on Saturday night?

    Don't be too hasty about throwing out the tree. Pine needle soup could be a handy addition to the larder in the Spring.
    Tree bark can be nutritious, as well.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,502

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    An agreement which she cannot get past her own party let alone the House of Commons. The EU aren't interested in reaching an agreement with Mrs May. They want an agreement with Britain.

    So the grey-suited ones need to tell her to revoke Article 50 (which at least preserves the status quo) and then resign. So that someone else can -

    (a) learn from the last 2 years and work out what Britain should do - there is plenty to be learnt, after all;
    (b) work out what Britain's European strategy should be - whether in or out and, if out, how to get out in a sensible way and, if in, what that should mean;
    (c) do this in conjunction with colleagues / experts / voters etc i.e. build a consensus;
    (d) put this forward in a GE as part of a coherent programme;
    (e) try and put the Tory party back together again.

    (Apologies - sometimes only swearing will do.)
    Welcome to the club, Cyclefree.
    Some of us have been making these points for over two years now, and called “Remoaners” and “Traitors” for our pains.

    The Tory party has become utterly contemptible. Major’s coneline cock-ups look like an Augustan age of wise leadership.
    I have been in the club for some time. But I had hoped that sense would prevail. Now I've lost patience. Tories - the patriotic party: what an absolute joke!

    In the words of Terry Thomas, they are all an absolute shower. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oU_HFZ2Tr0
    Superb! If I had time, and any editing skills whatsoever, I would use this to make a montage of Davis, Rees-Mogg, Fox, Johnson and Gove.

    Absolutely none of what they promised has come true.

    At least now Gove is said to be shitting himself. He should resign in disgrace and be exiled to Tristan de Cunha.
    What have the people of Tristan de Cunha done wrong?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On the plus side, all those January resolutions to lose weight might be more easily achieved and maintained this year.

    That said, I am mulling on the stockpiling of essential medicines. If I am, you can bet your life that there are a few million others doing the same thing.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,502
    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    On another subject - the US gov't partial shutdown. It's now at 2 weeks and I don't detect any overwhelming 'blame' aimed at either party. Normally the blame escalates pretty quickly.

    Agreed. It's notable that neither Trump nor the Democrats seem to be on the hook just yet.

    That will change, but it's hard to see exactly how just yet.

    There's a fascinating article in the Washington Post about how difficult negotiating with Trump is. Essentially, he'll say something in a meeting, and you'll think that a settlement is closer (such as when he agreed with Pence's proposal for $2.5bn of wall funding), and then 12 hours later he'll decry that same ideas on Twitter: it's $5bn or nothing.

    It makes the Democrats incredibly cautious of making any concessions.

    So: what happens? Is it possible to see a situation where a dozen Republicans agree $2bn of wall funding with the Democrats and simply go to Trump and tell him they'll hand him a veto proof vote if he doesn't comply? Or will the Democrats get the blame and eventually fold?

    He must have been a b*&^^%r with whom to do business. Get it signed at the time or don't bother.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    From the makers of Batshit I, Batshit II, and Batshit with a Vengeance...

    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1081208536573595651?s=21

    why the problem obtaining bananas?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,502

    From the makers of Batshit I, Batshit II, and Batshit with a Vengeance...

    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1081208536573595651?s=21

    why the problem obtaining bananas?
    Can't unload them at Ramsgate?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    On the plus side, all those January resolutions to lose weight might be more easily achieved and maintained this year.

    That said, I am mulling on the stockpiling of essential medicines. If I am, you can bet your life that there are a few million others doing the same thing.

    Paracetomol, Ibuprofen, aspirin and codeine shortages by March ?

    You have to go round lots of different shops to pick up a decent haul these days though..
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    On the plus side, all those January resolutions to lose weight might be more easily achieved and maintained this year.

    That said, I am mulling on the stockpiling of essential medicines. If I am, you can bet your life that there are a few million others doing the same thing.

    Even Charles was gracious enough to pass on the rumour from his elite circles that half the Brexit Ministry were already stockpiling.

    A touch of guilt, perhaps.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    From the makers of Batshit I, Batshit II, and Batshit with a Vengeance...

    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1081208536573595651?s=21

    why the problem obtaining bananas?
    I think most of the bananas we eat are grown in Madeira, although there are Caribbean suppliers. I don't know why tomatoes would be a problem.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    On the plus side, all those January resolutions to lose weight might be more easily achieved and maintained this year.

    That said, I am mulling on the stockpiling of essential medicines. If I am, you can bet your life that there are a few million others doing the same thing.

    Paracetomol, Ibuprofen, aspirin and codeine shortages by March ?

    You have to go round lots of different shops to pick up a decent haul these days though..
    You must get a lot of headaches to need that lot. No, my other half has some medicines that he cannot do without. A break in continuity is unthinkable.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,502

    Meanwhile, here's one MP's take on that tweet:

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/1081236512187011073

    And he's a Tory.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,739
    edited January 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:


    Some of us have been making these points for over two years now, and called “Remoaners” and “Traitors” for our pains.

    The Tory party has become utterly contemptible. Major’s coneline cock-ups look like an Augustan age of wise leadership.

    Shame he couldn’t bring himself to have a referendum on Maastricht, as Maggie suggested. Would have been No and he’d have saved everyone an awful of trouble.
    It would have been Yes, and would have laid the (political) ghost of Maggie to rest by seeing her defeated at the ballot box.
    Denmark voted No to Maastricht, even France only backed it 51% to 49%
    So what? There were mainstream politicians on both the right and the left campaigning against it in France. It wasn't a case of the politicians against the people.

    The political dynamics in the UK would have ensured an increasingly unhinged and toxic Maggie would become the figurehead of any No campaign, and it would have become a referendum on her.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I reckon this just makes Iowa more important. Whoever wins there gets several days of good media just as Californian postal voters get their ballots.

    Iowa will be a good test of ground ops - I reckon Beto could do well there and I see Warren performing well in New Hampshire because it borders on to Massachusetts
    Don't forget that Warren polls just 11% in her native New Hampshire for the democratic nomination
    The DNA test was her Chappaquidick.
    Did someone die?

    Just her Presidential campaign
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    On another subject - the US gov't partial shutdown. It's now at 2 weeks and I don't detect any overwhelming 'blame' aimed at either party. Normally the blame escalates pretty quickly.

    Agreed. It's notable that neither Trump nor the Democrats seem to be on the hook just yet.

    That will change, but it's hard to see exactly how just yet.

    There's a fascinating article in the Washington Post about how difficult negotiating with Trump is. Essentially, he'll say something in a meeting, and you'll think that a settlement is closer (such as when he agreed with Pence's proposal for $2.5bn of wall funding), and then 12 hours later he'll decry that same ideas on Twitter: it's $5bn or nothing.

    It makes the Democrats incredibly cautious of making any concessions.

    So: what happens? Is it possible to see a situation where a dozen Republicans agree $2bn of wall funding with the Democrats and simply go to Trump and tell him they'll hand him a veto proof vote if he doesn't comply? Or will the Democrats get the blame and eventually fold?

    He must have been a b*&^^%r with whom to do business. Get it signed at the time or don't bother.
    Oh, he still reneged after contracts were signed. He'd send 80% of the money agreed in the contract along, because it wouldn't be worth your lawyers fees to sue for the rest.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    On another subject - the US gov't partial shutdown. It's now at 2 weeks and I don't detect any overwhelming 'blame' aimed at either party. Normally the blame escalates pretty quickly.

    Agreed. It's notable that neither Trump nor the Democrats seem to be on the hook just yet.

    That will change, but it's hard to see exactly how just yet.

    There's a fascinating article in the Washington Post about how difficult negotiating with Trump is. Essentially, he'll say something in a meeting, and you'll think that a settlement is closer (such as when he agreed with Pence's proposal for $2.5bn of wall funding), and then 12 hours later he'll decry that same ideas on Twitter: it's $5bn or nothing.

    It makes the Democrats incredibly cautious of making any concessions.

    So: what happens? Is it possible to see a situation where a dozen Republicans agree $2bn of wall funding with the Democrats and simply go to Trump and tell him they'll hand him a veto proof vote if he doesn't comply? Or will the Democrats get the blame and eventually fold?

    He must have been a b*&^^%r with whom to do business. Get it signed at the time or don't bother.
    Oh, he still reneged after contracts were signed. He'd send 80% of the money agreed in the contract along, because it wouldn't be worth your lawyers fees to sue for the rest.
    The sort of person you deal with once, and never again.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Sean_F said:

    From the makers of Batshit I, Batshit II, and Batshit with a Vengeance...

    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1081208536573595651?s=21

    why the problem obtaining bananas?
    I think most of the bananas we eat are grown in Madeira, although there are Caribbean suppliers. I don't know why tomatoes would be a problem.
    thanks. didn't know that about madeira. thought most of our bananas came from the caribbean.
  • Pulpstar said:

    On the plus side, all those January resolutions to lose weight might be more easily achieved and maintained this year.

    That said, I am mulling on the stockpiling of essential medicines. If I am, you can bet your life that there are a few million others doing the same thing.

    Paracetomol, Ibuprofen, aspirin and codeine shortages by March ?

    You have to go round lots of different shops to pick up a decent haul these days though..
    Government issued cyanide capsules by June?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Anyway, to lighten the mood, this is superb - even after all these years - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydN5Glf9KI0.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Pulpstar said:

    On the plus side, all those January resolutions to lose weight might be more easily achieved and maintained this year.

    That said, I am mulling on the stockpiling of essential medicines. If I am, you can bet your life that there are a few million others doing the same thing.

    Paracetomol, Ibuprofen, aspirin and codeine shortages by March ?

    You have to go round lots of different shops to pick up a decent haul these days though..
    Government issued cyanide capsules by June?
    Kool-Aid, posted door to door by zero-hour contract workers.

    The link between Brexit and death cultists was made explicit by Richard Tyndall upthread, in a delightfully Freudian moment.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    No, but seriously, only 30% of our food comes from the EU, so even in the worst case scenario it would probably be several weeks before there was any question of starvation.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    On the plus side, all those January resolutions to lose weight might be more easily achieved and maintained this year.

    That said, I am mulling on the stockpiling of essential medicines. If I am, you can bet your life that there are a few million others doing the same thing.

    Even Charles was gracious enough to pass on the rumour from his elite circles that half the Brexit Ministry were already stockpiling.

    A touch of guilt, perhaps.
    First time my family Christmas lunch has every been referred to as "an elite circle"!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Sean_F said:

    From the makers of Batshit I, Batshit II, and Batshit with a Vengeance...

    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1081208536573595651?s=21

    why the problem obtaining bananas?
    I think most of the bananas we eat are grown in Madeira, although there are Caribbean suppliers. I don't know why tomatoes would be a problem.
    The question is whether Caribbean producers like Dole have long term supply contracts. If so, it may be difficult to persuade them to send stuff our way.

    But this is all bullshit.

    Because - guess what - the EU exports foodstuffs outside the EU. We will not be banned from buying bananas. And no government - either the EU or the UK - would institute laws or rules that would prevent their trade.

    Trade does not cease because we leave the EU without a deal. What happens is that there are a host of adminstrative, tax and legal issues that make trade more expensive. (And that is not just with the EU, but includes countries with whom the EU has existing agreements with, like ummm, the US.) That is not a disaster. But it will cause real, avoidable, economic hardship. Especially as the world and the UK are probably due a recession anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited January 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Yet another OGH anti Bernie thread.

    The fact remains Iowa and New Hampshire still vote first before other states and Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 and lost Iowa by less than 1%. If he wins both he will almost certainly be nominee as all the momentum will be his, no candidate in post war history has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be nominee.

    As for Harris she is yet another California coastal liberal who would lose the rustbelt and the Electoral College, little better than Warren. O'Rourke really needed to have beaten Cruz not lost to have a chance

    By spring of 2020, the US Democrats might be looking at the UK rejecting Corbyn twice - and think to themselves "Old Lefties? Nah......."
    The next UK general election is not due until 2022, the next US Presidential election is is 2020.

    It is not impossible President Sanders could be elected in 2020 paving the way for PM Corbyn or vice versa.

    After all UK and US politics is often in sync e.g. Wilson and LBJ, Heath and Nixon, Callaghan and Carter, Thatcher and Reagan, Bush and Major, Blair and Clinton etc
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    edited January 2019
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    On another subject - the US gov't partial shutdown. It's now at 2 weeks and I don't detect any overwhelming 'blame' aimed at either party. Normally the blame escalates pretty quickly.

    Agreed. It's notable that neither Trump nor the Democrats seem to be on the hook just yet.

    That will change, but it's hard to see exactly how just yet.

    There's a fascinating article in the Washington Post about how difficult negotiating with Trump is. Essentially, he'll say something in a meeting, and you'll think that a settlement is closer (such as when he agreed with Pence's proposal for $2.5bn of wall funding), and then 12 hours later he'll decry that same ideas on Twitter: it's $5bn or nothing.

    It makes the Democrats incredibly cautious of making any concessions.

    So: what happens? Is it possible to see a situation where a dozen Republicans agree $2bn of wall funding with the Democrats and simply go to Trump and tell him they'll hand him a veto proof vote if he doesn't comply? Or will the Democrats get the blame and eventually fold?

    He must have been a b*&^^%r with whom to do business. Get it signed at the time or don't bother.
    Oh, he still reneged after contracts were signed. He'd send 80% of the money agreed in the contract along, because it wouldn't be worth your lawyers fees to sue for the rest.
    The sort of person you deal with once, and never again.
    Yes. Fortunately there are a lot of building contractors and they are constantly going out of business, so there is a procession of new marks for you.

    Edit to add: of course, this is fundamentally different to government where everything is done in the public eye.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Chris said:

    No, but seriously, only 30% of our food comes from the EU, so even in the worst case scenario it would probably be several weeks before there was any question of starvation.

    Reassuring.
    If only the Brexiters had used this as a campaign message, the margin would definitely have been larger.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    It has been interesting reading the comments from all sides this morning regarding the No Dealers.
    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edge. I am resigned to No-Deal Brexit happening.
    I am not resigned to it. I am bloody furious about it.

    If ever we needed the fabled men in grey suits to tell her to stop being so bloody stupid, it's now.
    I am very annoyed as well, but I think that the lunatics are in charge, so I am moving more assets abroad. The large one (that you have seen the piccie of) is being transferred to Dublin. I posted the paperwork this afternoon.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    On another subject - the US gov't partial shutdown. It's now at 2 weeks and I don't detect any overwhelming 'blame' aimed at either party. Normally the blame escalates pretty quickly.

    Agreed. It's notable that neither Trump nor the Democrats seem to be on the hook just yet.

    That will change, but it's hard to see exactly how just yet.

    There's a fascinating article in the Washington Post about how difficult negotiating with Trump is. Essentially, he'll say something in a meeting, and you'll think that a settlement is closer (such as when he agreed with Pence's proposal for $2.5bn of wall funding), and then 12 hours later he'll decry that same ideas on Twitter: it's $5bn or nothing.

    It makes the Democrats incredibly cautious of making any concessions.

    So: what happens? Is it possible to see a situation where a dozen Republicans agree $2bn of wall funding with the Democrats and simply go to Trump and tell him they'll hand him a veto proof vote if he doesn't comply? Or will the Democrats get the blame and eventually fold?

    He must have been a b*&^^%r with whom to do business. Get it signed at the time or don't bother.
    Oh, he still reneged after contracts were signed. He'd send 80% of the money agreed in the contract along, because it wouldn't be worth your lawyers fees to sue for the rest.
    The sort of person you deal with once, and never again.
    That was Governor Patterson's view.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:


    Some of us have been making these points for over two years now, and called “Remoaners” and “Traitors” for our pains.

    The Tory party has become utterly contemptible. Major’s coneline cock-ups look like an Augustan age of wise leadership.

    Shame he couldn’t bring himself to have a referendum on Maastricht, as Maggie suggested. Would have been No and he’d have saved everyone an awful of trouble.
    It would have been Yes, and would have laid the (political) ghost of Maggie to rest by seeing her defeated at the ballot box.
    Denmark voted No to Maastricht, even France only backed it 51% to 49%
    So what? There were mainstream politicians on both the right and the left campaigning against it in France. It wasn't a case of the politicians against the people.

    The political dynamics in the UK would have ensured an increasingly unhinged and toxic Maggie would become the figurehead of any No campaign, and it would have become a referendum on her.
    Major was the PM then not Thatcher.

    Old Labour voters could have combined with Thatcherites to cast a protest vote against the government and EU
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet another OGH anti Bernie thread.

    The fact remains Iowa and New Hampshire still vote first before other states and Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 and lost Iowa by less than 1%. If he wins both he will almost certainly be nominee as all the momentum will be his, no candidate in post war history has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be nominee.

    As for Harris she is yet another California coastal liberal who would lose the rustbelt and the Electoral College, little better than Warren. O'Rourke really needed to have beaten Cruz not lost to have a chance

    By spring of 2020, the US Democrats might be looking at the UK rejecting Corbyn twice - and think to themselves "Old Lefties? Nah......."
    The next UK general election is not due until 2022, the next US Presidential election is is 2020.

    It is not impossible President Sanders could be elected in 2020 paving the way for PM Corbyn or vice versa.

    After all UK and US politics is often in sync e.g. Wilson and LBJ, Heath and Nixon, Callaghan and Carter, Thatcher and Reagan, Bush and Major, Blair and Clinton etc
    It's a brave man who thinks the next UK election will be in 2022.....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,502
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet another OGH anti Bernie thread.

    The fact remains Iowa and New Hampshire still vote first before other states and Sanders won New Hampshire in 2016 and lost Iowa by less than 1%. If he wins both he will almost certainly be nominee as all the momentum will be his, no candidate in post war history has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be nominee.

    As for Harris she is yet another California coastal liberal who would lose the rustbelt and the Electoral College, little better than Warren. O'Rourke really needed to have beaten Cruz not lost to have a chance

    By spring of 2020, the US Democrats might be looking at the UK rejecting Corbyn twice - and think to themselves "Old Lefties? Nah......."
    The next UK general election is not due until 2022, the next US Presidential election is is 2020.

    It is not impossible President Sanders could be elected in 2020 paving the way for PM Corbyn or vice versa.

    After all UK and US politics is often in sync e.g. Wilson and LBJ, Heath and Nixon, Callaghan and Carter, Thatcher and Reagan, Bush and Major, Blair and Clinton etc
    Trump and May? Even I wouldn't put her that duplicitous.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HSBC has become the latest frontline in the Brexit culture wars:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1081238091552174080
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Chris said:

    No, but seriously, only 30% of our food comes from the EU, so even in the worst case scenario it would probably be several weeks before there was any question of starvation.

    But....but....but - won't someone think of the poor Camembert Cravers?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    HSBC has become the latest frontline in the Brexit culture wars:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1081238091552174080

    We are part of something far, far bigger"

    The Lizard Conspiracy
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    An agreement which she cannot get past her own party let alone the House of Commons. The EU aren't interested in reaching an agreement with Mrs May. They want an agreement with Britain.

    So the grey-suited ones need to tell her to revoke Article 50 (which at least preserves the status quo) and then resign. So that someone else can -

    (a) learn from the last 2 years and work out what Britain should do - there is plenty to be learnt, after all;
    (b) work out what Britain's European strategy should be - whether in or out and, if out, how to get out in a sensible way and, if in, what that should mean;
    (c) do this in conjunction with colleagues / experts / voters etc i.e. build a consensus;
    (d) put this forward in a GE as part of a coherent programme;
    (e) try and put the Tory party back together again.

    Frankly,on the rest of us?

    For the love of God, something as important as how we patrol our sea borders to prevent undesirables (by which I mean criminals and terrorists not some desperate Iranians) from entering the country is not dealt with as an important matter of public policy but as background to one politician's ambitions. It is pathetic. It is utterly negligent. And it is potentially dangerous for the rest of us.

    So, yes, I am absolutely fucking furious with our politicians. How the fuck dare they mess with my childrens' futures because they cannot fucking grow up and behave like the fucking adults they are meant to be.

    (Apologies - sometimes only swearing will do.)
    Welcome to the club, Cyclefree.
    Some of us have been making these points for over two years now, and called “Remoaners” and “Traitors” for our pains.

    The Tory party has become utterly contemptible. Major’s coneline cock-ups look like an Augustan age of wise leadership.
    I have been in the club for some time. But I had hoped that sense would prevail. Now I've lost patience. Tories - the patriotic party: what an absolute joke!

    In the words of Terry Thomas, they are all an absolute shower. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oU_HFZ2Tr0

    Yes, the Conservative party's claim to be the party of patriotism and business has died quite a dramatic death over the last two years or so. The patriotism thing was always a stretch, but the Tories becoming so anti-business really is a genuine shock. I must admit to totally underestimating the swivel-eyed zealotry that existed in the Blue corner. I always thought it was largely a Red thing.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    Chris said:

    No, but seriously, only 30% of our food comes from the EU, so even in the worst case scenario it would probably be several weeks before there was any question of starvation.

    Reassuring.
    If only the Brexiters had used this as a campaign message, the margin would definitely have been larger.
    Of course I am assuming that a combination of congestion at the ports and panic-buying doesn't empty the supermarket shelves immediately.

    But even then, starvation won't affect those of us with private food stockpiles. For several weeks.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    HSBC has become the latest frontline in the Brexit culture wars:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1081238091552174080

    We are part of something far, far bigger"

    The Lizard Conspiracy
    I should have known that was the upsetting line. Brexiters want to be far far smaller.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    It has been interesting reading the comments from all sides this morning regarding the No Dealers.
    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edge. I am resigned to No-Deal Brexit happening.
    I am not resigned to it. I am bloody furious about it.

    If ever we needed the fabled men in grey suits to tell her to stop being so bloody stupid, it's now.
    I am very annoyed as well, but I think that the lunatics are in charge, so I am moving more assets abroad. The large one (that you have seen the piccie of) is being transferred to Dublin. I posted the paperwork this afternoon.
    Good for you.

    My home here can't be posted abroad sadly. Other assets can. But my family are here.

    And, dammit, this is my country: I don't see why lunatics should be allowed to ruin it. We are - we can be - better than that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    HSBC has become the latest frontline in the Brexit culture wars:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1081238091552174080

    We are part of something far, far bigger"

    The Lizard Conspiracy
    I should have known that was the upsetting line. Brexiters want to be far far smaller.
    I'd have thought "Your mortgage will double overnight in a no deal brexit scenario" would be a more 'effective' message.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    It has been interesting reading the comments from all sides this morning regarding the No Dealers.
    ...
    Whilst I don't necessarily believe the doomsday scenarios about Brexit, I do think a negotiated settlement is far better but I do fear that the Remainers and Dealers are currently in denial about the unruffled fanaticism of the No Dealers.

    I suspect that tin-eared Tess will take us over the edge. I am resigned to No-Deal Brexit happening.
    I am not resigned to it. I am bloody furious about it.

    If ever we needed the fabled men in grey suits to tell her to stop being so bloody stupid, it's now.
    Can't we settle for ladies in stylish shoes?

    That brings you and @Beverley_C into the equation...
    I would be the Senekot of Westminster. After I had gone through, all the sh*ts would be wiped out.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    Chris said:

    No, but seriously, only 30% of our food comes from the EU, so even in the worst case scenario it would probably be several weeks before there was any question of starvation.

    What kind of government would think that "any question of starvation" was a successful policy? The same kind of government whose incompetence has crucified business investment for the past two years and STILL cant give firm answers to critical questions... I have been waiting 2 years to know what legal framework I can use for my business and the revolving door at DExEU is no further forward than it was 12 months ago.

    The Conservative government is a shambolic disgrace and actually I don't trust them not to F*** up on even the simple and most basic decisions, vide this latest balls up where they have awarded a ferry contract to a bunch of extremely dubious figures with a very questionable track record.

    How on God's green earth can Labour be worse than this utter shower? Answer: Blo*dy Corbyn!!

    The latest drivel of the majority of Tories supporting "No deal", Look, most of them are Care Home Conservatives who think Boris Johnson is a serious politician FFS.

    So while at least we can hold off starvation for a few weeks, I personally would be stocking up on canned food and shotguns.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.


    For the love of God, something as important as how we patrol our sea borders to prevent undesirables (by which I mean criminals and terrorists not some desperate Iranians) from entering the country is not dealt with as an important matter of public policy but as background to one politician's ambitions. It is pathetic. It is utterly negligent. And it is potentially dangerous for the rest of us.

    So, yes, I am absolutely fucking furious with our politicians. How the fuck dare they mess with my childrens' futures because they cannot fucking grow up and behave like the fucking adults they are meant to be.

    (Apologies - sometimes only swearing will do.)
    Welcome to the club, Cyclefree.
    Some of us have been making these points for over two years now, and called “Remoaners” and “Traitors” for our pains.

    The Tory party has become utterly contemptible. Major’s coneline cock-ups look like an Augustan age of wise leadership.
    I have been in the club for some time. But I had hoped that sense would prevail. Now I've lost patience. Tories - the patriotic party: what an absolute joke!

    In the words of Terry Thomas, they are all an absolute shower. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oU_HFZ2Tr0

    Yes, the Conservative party's claim to be the party of patriotism and business has died quite a dramatic death over the last two years or so. The patriotism thing was always a stretch, but the Tories becoming so anti-business really is a genuine shock. I must admit to totally underestimating the swivel-eyed zealotry that existed in the Blue corner. I always thought it was largely a Red thing.

    Me too. And that Blue zealotry will make it increasingly likely that we will have to suffer the effects of Red zealotry as well.

    Bastards, the lot of them.

    The other day Matthew Parris said on the radio that he thought there was a high risk the Tory party might not exist in a year's time. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised. And it might well be a good thing if it resulted in a genuine realignment in our politics
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    HSBC has become the latest frontline in the Brexit culture wars:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1081238091552174080

    Dutch beer isn't that great IMO. And if we Brexit we can impose a maximum overseas count on all footie clubs so the Belgian Striker can go ply his trade elsewhere.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776

    HSBC has become the latest frontline in the Brexit culture wars:

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1081238091552174080

    Is that advert also appearing on bus stops in Mansfield?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    edited January 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    An agreement which she cannot get past her own party let alone the House of Commons. The EU aren't interested in reaching an agreement with Mrs May. They want an agreement with Britain.

    So the grey-suited ones need to tell her to revoke Article 50 (which at least preserves the status quo) and then resign. So that someone else can -

    (a) learn from the last 2 years and work out what Britain should do - there is plenty to be learnt, after all;
    (b) work out what Britain's European strategy should be - whether in or out and, if out, how to get out in a sensible way and, if in, what that should mean;
    (c) do this in conjunction with colleagues / experts / voters etc i.e. build a consensus;
    (d) put this forward in a GE as part of a coherent programme;
    (e) try and put the Tory party back together again.

    Frankly, I don't care about (e). The Tory party seems utterly split to me and it might be better if it formally split so that the ERG can go off and be pillocks in NI. But (a) - (d) are in the interests of the country. And I am utterly sick of Mrs May and other Tories playing games with the future of the country and the people in it as part of their own mid-life crisis / narcissistic ambitious game playing. If the Tory party needs some therapy can't they get one of their rich donors to pay for it, rather than inflict this nonsense on the rest of us?

    For the love of God, something as important as how we patrol our sea borders to prevent undesirables (by which I mean criminals and terrorists not some desperate Iranians) from entering the country is not dealt with as an important matter of public policy but as background to one politician's ambitions. It is pathetic. It is utterly negligent. And it is potentially dangerous for the rest of us.

    So, yes, I am absolutely fucking furious with our politicians. How the fuck dare they mess with my childrens' futures because they cannot fucking grow up and behave like the fucking adults they are meant to be.

    (Apologies - sometimes only swearing will do.)

    A cracking read.

    And if this ends in No Deal or another Referendum, I would agree with your despairing cri de coeur. Incompetence and cowardice on an epic scale.

    However, if she ultimately and by hook or by crook manages to get the Withdrawal Treaty ratified, she will have drawn some of the poison from the most divisive issue of our time, and will have laid the foundation for a phased and orderly exit from the European Union which does not trash the UK economy.

    That would be no mean achievement.

    (Bookies have it 4/6 that she won't, 6/4 that she will. So still plenty to play for at this point.)
This discussion has been closed.