politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders drops to 6% chance in the WH2020 nominee betting follo

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.

I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.

avoidable deaths - eg pollution from german diesels - and job losses happen today when we are in the EU.

Would you like to set the ball rolling and set the benchmark so that we can make a meaningful comparison to Brexit ?

Not to mention that there will be external factors over which we have absolutely no control: the US or China slipping into recession, for example.

It is worth noting that the UK economy is likely to be meaningfully buoyed by concerns about No Deal Brexit in the last quarter of 2018 and the first of 2019. Businesses - and I'm sure yours in one - are increasing inventory above normal levels to deal with potential supply chain issues. This is likely to have added 0.5% to Q4 GDP, and could add close to 1% to Q1. And, whatever the outcome, this will be unwound in 2Q.

HYUFD said:

grabcocque said:

HYUFD said:

They do, certainly Deltapoll. You cling onto polls commissioned by People's Vote, so pot calling kettle back

One thing you're wilfully neglecting to mention was during May's weird two week charm offensive, public opinion against the deal hardened significantly.

Evidence? The Deal frequently beats Remain or No Deal head to head but trails on first preferences

The polls you keep citing did not ask people to answer head-to-head questions and you know this.

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.

If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.

BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.

There will be a good deal of disappointment if the worst predictions of No Deal do not materialise.

I'm still waiting for anyone other than @malcolmg to let me know whether they regard avoidable deaths and job losses (and if so at what level) as an acceptable price to pay for no-deal Brexit, if they should happen. I'm trying to understand the mindset and I'm not getting any help from my lab rats.

avoidable deaths - eg pollution from german diesels - and job losses happen today when we are in the EU.

Would you like to set the ball rolling and set the benchmark so that we can make a meaningful comparison to Brexit ?

Not to mention that there will be external factors over which we have absolutely no control: the US or China slipping into recession, for example.

It is worth noting that the UK economy is likely to be meaningfully buoyed by concerns about No Deal Brexit in the last quarter of 2018 and the first of 2019. Businesses - and I'm sure yours in one - are increasing inventory above normal levels to deal with potential supply chain issues. This is likely to have added 0.5% to Q4 GDP, and could add close to 1% to Q1. And, whatever the outcome, this will be unwound in 2Q.

the world is heading in to slowdown territory, its cyclical about every 10 years

anothernick said:

HYUFD said:

anothernick said:

grabcocque said:

BREAKING: Downing Street briefing they still expect to lose the meaningful vote big

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1080864008616529920

If the vote is lost by the kind of majority that was expected in December then the idea of bringing it back is for the birds. May (and Corbyn for that matter) will have to choose between no deal and suspension/revokation of article 50 to allow for further negotiation, second referendum etc.

Nope. There is no alternative Deal as both May and the EU have made clear, no further negotiations. Once both EUref2 and Norway plus are put forward to the House using the Grieve amendment and voted down May can persist with her Deal as the only alternative to No Deal

Well I don't know about you but I struggle to see how May can somehow beat MPs into submission and force them to swallow a deal which few of them (and few people in the country) support. I can't think of any modern precedent for such cromwellian tactics.

When it remains the only alternative to No Deal.

See too the US bailout vote which the House voted down then for after the markets crashed

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

grabcocque said:

HYUFD said:

They do, certainly Deltapoll. You cling onto polls commissioned by People's Vote, so pot calling kettle back

One thing you're wilfully neglecting to mention was during May's weird two week charm offensive, public opinion against the deal hardened significantly.

Evidence? The Deal frequently beats Remain or No Deal head to head but trails on first preferences

The polls you keep citing did not ask people to answer head-to-head questions and you know this.

Nope Deltapoll did.

Yougov also had Deal ahead after preferences. That mirrors a Leave v Remain then if Leave win the Deal or No Deal question which is the most likely EUref option.

That also ensures No Dealers turn out to vote for Leave, then Remainers vote for the Deal over No Deal if Leave wins and the Deal wins overall

Mr. Eagles, once again, where Morris Dancer's brilliance leads, others soon follow!

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Deltapoll had the Deal beating Remain 62% to 38%

WHAT ??

In a binary choice?

that does not compute, that does not compute, that does not compute ... wires melt, smoke rises, things fall off.

Apologies was a bit closer but Deal beat Remain still comfortably 56% to 44%

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1068243124076593152

While a week and a half later, YouGov did have a 62/38 poll... but 62% Remain, 38% May Deal.

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Greetings Mr Eagles, your book posted this earlier:

TheScreamingEagles said:

anothernick said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

https://twitter.com/aiannucci/status/1080833155370766336?s=21

This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.

A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.

A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.

I hope that you have now been released from whatever dark dungeon it held you in.

Look, if Hunt becomes next Tory Leader/PM I'll have enough money to hire a dominatrix for two hours a day for a month^*!.

You can understand my excitement at Hunt becoming PM.


^As a good Muslim boy, I'd never hire a dominatrix

*As a Yorkshireman, Ow Much would kick in, so I'd never hire one.

!Why do men pay strange women to sexually frustrate them, they can get that free if they marry them.

long term marriage is more expensive

If it floats, flies or f***s, you’ll always find it much cheaper in the long term to rent rather than buy...

Does that apply to ducks, which do all three?

Try here: http://philsanimalrentals.com/welcome/

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Doethur, I've referred to that quite a bit recently.

Clearly, like Flaminius chasing Hannibal, you have been paying insufficient attention

I've had to Scipiover quite a number of recent threads due to other commitments.

TGOHF said:

Gardenwalker said:

Fpt:

Following a (brief) period of civil emergency,.

A civil emergency due to brie supplies being delayed at Calais for a few extra hours ?

Give me strength..

It's not the brie, that will just ripen nicely. What about the Beaujolais nouveau? Imagine if it got reviewed before you had even tasted it. Would you be able to go to a Brussels dinner party again?

There’s no evidence to suggest May will get close to winning her vote on Jan 15, and it’s beyond me what changes she might deliver for any re-votes.

Moreover, promising to stand down is hardly likely to win her further votes. I mean, who agrees to vote for something they think is wrong just because May promises to set a deadline for her resignation?

Besides, May’s 2019 ouster is already banked in to expectations.

From tomorrow there are just 12 weeks until Brexit-day.

AlastairMeeks said:

felix said:

Alanbrooke said:

Well your emotive response shows why people chose to ignore your obvious baiting

As I said being in the EU doesnt protect us from job losses or premature deaths, so to do a meaningful comparison we must have a baseline.

I wouldn't bother feeding the troll. Most are just ignoring him.

It's a straight question. Do no-deal Leavers believe that any degree of serious disruption is worth it and if so what? Or do they simply think it's not going to happen and will recant if it does?

It should be an easy question for no-deal Leavers to answer. Instead I get evasion.

I infer that the conclusion is that they are prepared to see a lot of deaths and a lot of unemployment as a result of Brexit and would see that as ultimately worth it, but that they don't want to say so.

The question is an example of Cardinal Morton's fork. Whatever answer you give, you lose. So, the wise response is not to answer it.

kinabalu said:

grabcocque said:

A50 says that the treaties shall cease to apply to the UK on the 29th March, and it's the treaties that grant the EU authorisation to conclude a withdrawal agreement. Once it leaves, A50 ends, any authorisations the EU possessed are null and void.

Ok fine. That is the law and the EU is a legalistic entity. So one cannot assume that the Withdrawal Treaty could be implemented on, say, May 10th when we have left on March 29th. Indeed one must assume the opposite. That it is dead.

However, imagine the following. We do leave on March 29th without a deal and there is chaos, real economic and social damage, for us and for many of the EU27. The doom mongers are right. Project Fear is Reality.

Now, faced with this grisly state of affairs, we execute a volte face, humiliating as it is, and we inform the EU (who remember are also suffering) that we would after all like to implement that Withdrawal Treaty and would like to do it ASAP.

In those circumstances, I postulate that a way will be found to accommodate us, for the compelling reason that such a solution is much in everybody's best interests. Or at least that this is far from an impossible scenario.

Are you opining that I am indulging in pure unicorn? If so, why?

(Why do you think it is, I mean, not what do you think drives me to be a fantasist.)

I agree that this is one possible scenario. Though I think it more likely that a UK volte face will consist of a second referendum rather than a resurrection of May's deceased withdrawal agreement.

kinabalu said:

grabcocque said:

A50 says that the treaties shall cease to apply to the UK on the 29th March, and it's the treaties that grant the EU authorisation to conclude a withdrawal agreement. Once it leaves, A50 ends, any authorisations the EU possessed are null and void.

Ok fine. That is the law and the EU is a legalistic entity. So one cannot assume that the Withdrawal Treaty could be implemented on, say, May 10th when we have left on March 29th. Indeed one must assume the opposite. That it is dead.

However, imagine the following. We do leave on March 29th without a deal and there is chaos, real economic and social damage, for us and for many of the EU27. The doom mongers are right. Project Fear is Reality.

Now, faced with this grisly state of affairs, we execute a volte face, humiliating as it is, and we inform the EU (who remember are also suffering) that we would after all like to implement that Withdrawal Treaty and would like to do it ASAP.

In those circumstances, I postulate that a way will be found to accommodate us, for the compelling reason that such a solution is much in everybody's best interests. Or at least that this is far from an impossible scenario.

Are you opining that I am indulging in pure unicorn? If so, why?

(Why do you think it is, I mean, not what do you think drives me to be a fantasist.)

Yes, this is pure unicorn.
Following a No Deal Brexit, we will end up with an even worse deal than the current one.

We will be accommodated in the way China was accommodated after the Opium Wars. Perhaps this is not the right metaphor, but it’s the one that springs to mind.

DavidL said:

Mortimer said:

DavidL said:

TGOHF said:

Gardenwalker said:

Fpt:

Following a (brief) period of civil emergency,.

A civil emergency due to brie supplies being delayed at Calais for a few extra hours ?

Give me strength..

It's not the brie, that will just ripen nicely. What about the Beaujolais nouveau? Imagine if it got reviewed before you had even tasted it. Would you be able to go to a Brussels dinner party again?

Top spoofing David. Hope you’re on the mend.

Things seem to be picking up. Whilst there are a number of risk factors and possible set backs I am seeing a path.

Seriously though, I am a dealer because Brexit is not just for Christmas, not even mine. What we need to think about here is not April 2019 but the next 20 years. Do we leave the EU with some wistful regrets and promises to work together on subjects of mutual interest, having paid our bills and sorted things out tidily or do we go off in the huff tearing up any chance of them wanting to deal with us on anything for the foreseeable? With Ireland the latter approach cost us about 70 years of good relations and we could do the same with the whole EU. The deal is just the adult way to behave.

But the Jeremiah warnings of no deal are starting to piss me off to the point I would not be that sorry if it happened just so we could see how ridiculous people are being. Again.

Jeremiah warnings have been reasonably accurate, about Corbyn, Brexit *and* Trump.

Sean_F said:

grabcocque said:

RobD said:

Another reason to leave - https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/eu-commission-pushes-ahead-with-plan-to-end-unanimity-on-tax-1.3746080?mode=amp

I thought the UK was broadly in favour of trying to end tax havens and offshore tax avoidance?

Not that I know of.

Lip service only, where would they hide all their spoils

grabcocque said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting ...
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1080867505416089600?s=21

Starmer then McDonnell then Thornberry tied with Umunna with Labour voters

It'll be a woman. Labour MPs have already decided it needs to be. It looks bad for Labour to have never elected a female leader.

Emily Thornberry is Corbyn's heir apparent, but I'm not sure that counts against her as much as you might think.

I'm honestly not sure if this is delusion or a brilliant troll of Labour members. Bravo.

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

grabcocque said:

HYUFD said:

They do, certainly Deltapoll. You cling onto polls commissioned by People's Vote, so pot calling kettle back

One thing you're wilfully neglecting to mention was during May's weird two week charm offensive, public opinion against the deal hardened significantly.

Evidence? The Deal frequently beats Remain or No Deal head to head but trails on first preferences

The polls you keep citing did not ask people to answer head-to-head questions and you know this.

Nope Deltapoll did.

The results quoted from Deltapoll were also based on reallocating preferences, not on offering people head-to-head choices.

http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Deltapoll_Fisher181129b.pdf

Which as even that poll only gives 45% to Remain on first preferences would be the only way any 2nd EU referendum could be conducted until one option gets over 50%. On that basis therefore the Deal wins once head to head with Remain or No Deal

That poll is at the extreme low end of Remain's first preferences in three-way polling.

El_Capitano said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Deltapoll had the Deal beating Remain 62% to 38%

WHAT ??

In a binary choice?

that does not compute, that does not compute, that does not compute ... wires melt, smoke rises, things fall off.

Apologies was a bit closer but Deal beat Remain still comfortably 56% to 44%

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1068243124076593152

While a week and a half later, YouGov did have a 62/38 poll... but 62% Remain, 38% May Deal.

That was from Remain pressure group People's vote.

Yougov actually had it Remain 50% Deal 50% before that

grabcocque said:

Benpointer said:

Glad to hear things are moving in the right direction.

Re No Deal... how can you be confident the doomsayers are wrong?

The doomsayers keep resorting to such underhanded techniques as "facts" and a "deep understanding of international trade".

Everyone knows that you just have to BELIEVE IN BRITAIN and our plucky dunkirk blitz rationing dunkirk blitz rationing dunkirk blitz rationing dunkirk blitz rationing dunkirk blitz rationing dunkirk blitz rationing dunkirk blitz rationing dunkirk blitz rationing spirit will make everything dunkirk blitz rationing JUST FINE.

Don't mention the vegan sausage rolls.
https://twitter.com/JonathanJHiggs/status/1080555129240211459

Benpointer said:

DavidL said:

Mortimer said:

DavidL said:

TGOHF said:

Gardenwalker said:

Fpt:

Following a (brief) period of civil emergency,.

A civil emergency due to brie supplies being delayed at Calais for a few extra hours ?

Give me strength..

It's not the brie, that will just ripen nicely. What about the Beaujolais nouveau? Imagine if it got reviewed before you had even tasted it. Would you be able to go to a Brussels dinner party again?

Top spoofing David. Hope you’re on the mend.

Things seem to be picking up. Whilst there are a number of risk factors and possible set backs I am seeing a path.

Seriously though, I am a dealer because Brexit is not just for Christmas, not even mine. What we need to think about here is not April 2019 but the next 20 years. Do we leave the EU with some wistful regrets and promises to work together on subjects of mutual interest, having paid our bills and sorted things out tidily or do we go off in the huff tearing up any chance of them wanting to deal with us on anything for the foreseeable? With Ireland the latter approach cost us about 70 years of good relations and we could do the same with the whole EU. The deal is just the adult way to behave.

But the Jeremiah warnings of no deal are starting to piss me off to the point I would not be that sorry if it happened just so we could see how ridiculous people are being. Again.

Glad to hear things are moving in the right direction.

Re No Deal... how can you be confident the doomsayers are wrong?

We manage to trade with a large number of countries without any trade deal. Works perfectly well. In April we will have exactly the same standards as the EU for everything. Absolutely everything. We even enforce them. The idea that there is going to be any significant disruption in trade is just hysteria. But for the sake of good future relations we should take the deal. Its in our long term interests.

HYUFD said:

El_Capitano said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Deltapoll had the Deal beating Remain 62% to 38%

WHAT ??

In a binary choice?

that does not compute, that does not compute, that does not compute ... wires melt, smoke rises, things fall off.

Apologies was a bit closer but Deal beat Remain still comfortably 56% to 44%

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1068243124076593152

While a week and a half later, YouGov did have a 62/38 poll... but 62% Remain, 38% May Deal.

That was from Remain pressure group People's vote.

Yougov actually had it Remain 50% Deal 50% before that

Are you deluded or just being disingenuous? The 62/38 poll was conducted by YouGov. The 50/50 poll DID NOT ASK a head-to-head question but was derived from analysis of preferences.

In other US news Nancy Pelosi just elected Speaker.

DavidL said:

Gardenwalker said:

DavidL said:

Mortimer said:

DavidL said:

TGOHF said:

Gardenwalker said:

Fpt:

Following a (brief) period of civil emergency,.

A civil emergency due to brie supplies being delayed at Calais for a few extra hours ?

Give me strength..

It's not the brie, that will just ripen nicely. What about the Beaujolais nouveau? Imagine if it got reviewed before you had even tasted it. Would you be able to go to a Brussels dinner party again?

Top spoofing David. Hope you’re on the mend.

Things seem to be picking up. Whilst there are a number of risk factors and possible set backs I am seeing a path.

Seriously though, I am a dealer because Brexit is not just for Christmas, not even mine. What we need to think about here is not April 2019 but the next 20 years. Do we leave the EU with some wistful regrets and promises to work together on subjects of mutual interest, having paid our bills and sorted things out tidily or do we go off in the huff tearing up any chance of them wanting to deal with us on anything for the foreseeable? With Ireland the latter approach cost us about 70 years of good relations and we could do the same with the whole EU. The deal is just the adult way to behave.

But the Jeremiah warnings of no deal are starting to piss me off to the point I would not be that sorry if it happened just so we could see how ridiculous people are being. Again.

Jeremiah warnings have been reasonably accurate, about Corbyn, Brexit *and* Trump.

Corbyn's an arse. Brexit, well we may be able to judge in about 10 years although personally I doubt it. Trump is also an arse but one who has got the US economy motoring. Not sure what your point is.

My point is that it is sad to wish misfortune on the country because you are sick of jeremiads which have actually turned out to relatively accurate.

Corbyn *has* transformed the Labour Party and left wing political discourse into a sewer of extreme left ideology.

Brexit has - so far - destabilised the government, led to a significant devaluation, caused economic stagnation, and weakened Britain geopolitically. And we haven’t even Brexited yet.

Trump has been a disaster for US’s global standing while he has led the most regressive and corrupt adminstration since the 1920s. The economy has done OK, but the stock market is starting to tank in response to the trade wars.

Anorak said:

grabcocque said:

Benpointer said:

Glad to hear things are moving in the right direction.

Re No Deal... how can you be confident the doomsayers are wrong?

The doomsayers keep resorting to such underhanded techniques as "facts" and a "deep understanding of international trade".

Everyone knows that you just have to BELIEVE IN BRITAIN and our plucky dunkirk blitz rationing dunkirk blitz rationing dunkirk blitz rationing dunkirk blitz rationing dunkirk blitz rationing dunkirk blitz rationing dunkirk blitz rationing dunkirk blitz rationing spirit will make everything dunkirk blitz rationing JUST FINE.

Don't mention the vegan sausage rolls.
https://twitter.com/JonathanJHiggs/status/1080555129240211459

I didn’t realise @MaxPB’s real name was Jonathan!

Gardenwalker said:

Interesting set of preferences, though not sure Lilico speaks for anyone but himself: he is as mad as a hatter.

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1080894361372684288?s=21

He's basically a tweeting equivalent of UKIP-Home and so similar PB punishment rules should apply to positng his tweets as the former's polling of 'members'

Gardenwalker said:

DavidL said:

Gardenwalker said:

DavidL said:

Mortimer said:

DavidL said:

TGOHF said:

Gardenwalker said:

Top spoofing David. Hope you’re on the mend.

Things seem to be picking up. Whilst there are a number of risk factors and possible set backs I am seeing a path.

Seriously though, I am a dealer because Brexit is not just for Christmas, not even mine. What we need to think about here is not April 2019 but the next 20 years. Do we leave the EU with some wistful regrets and promises to work together on subjects of mutual interest, having paid our bills and sorted things out tidily or do we go off in the huff tearing up any chance of them wanting to deal with us on anything for the foreseeable? With Ireland the latter approach cost us about 70 years of good relations and we could do the same with the whole EU. The deal is just the adult way to behave.

But the Jeremiah warnings of no deal are starting to piss me off to the point I would not be that sorry if it happened just so we could see how ridiculous people are being. Again.

Jeremiah warnings have been reasonably accurate, about Corbyn, Brexit *and* Trump.

Corbyn's an arse. Brexit, well we may be able to judge in about 10 years although personally I doubt it. Trump is also an arse but one who has got the US economy motoring. Not sure what your point is.

My point is that it is sad to wish misfortune on the country because you are sick of jeremiads which have actually turned out to relatively accurate.

Corbyn *has* transformed the Labour Party and left wing political discourse into a sewer of extreme left ideology.

Brexit has - so far - destabilised the government, led to a significant devaluation, caused economic stagnation, and weakened Britain geopolitically. And we haven’t even Brexited yet.

Trump has been a disaster for US’s global standing while he has led the most regressive and corrupt adminstration since the 1920s. The economy has done OK, but the stock market is starting to tank in response to the trade wars.

I don't wish misfortune on the country. I support May's deal. Still don't get your examples. People pointing out that Trump is not a fit and proper person to run a corner shop, let alone become President, were hardly Jeremiads. It was the majority view across the world, including the US where he got a minority of the vote.

Chris_A said:

In other US news Nancy Pelosi just elected Speaker.

Another mistake by the Dems, I fear. A new face would have been much better.

grabcocque said:

It's not for nothing that HYUFD is known as PB's most industrious p-Hacker.

This is an actual image of HYUFD trying to prove that May's deal being people's third choice and rejected by twice as many people as like it is conclusive proof May will win:

Just cause you a a fanatic for whom the only alternatives are a hugely divisive EUref2 and far right surge if Remain scrape home and the huge economic damage of No Deal and the damage to the Union does not mean the rest of us are

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

El_Capitano said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Deltapoll had the Deal beating Remain 62% to 38%

WHAT ??

In a binary choice?

that does not compute, that does not compute, that does not compute ... wires melt, smoke rises, things fall off.

Apologies was a bit closer but Deal beat Remain still comfortably 56% to 44%

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1068243124076593152

While a week and a half later, YouGov did have a 62/38 poll... but 62% Remain, 38% May Deal.

That was from Remain pressure group People's vote.

Yougov actually had it Remain 50% Deal 50% before that

Are you deluded or just being disingenuous? The 62/38 poll was conducted by YouGov. The 50/50 poll DID NOT ASK a head-to-head question but was derived from analysis of preferences.

The 62 38 question was asked on terms set by a pro Remain pressure group and excluded a No Deal option deliberately to ensure No Dealers would not commit to be certain to vote, in which case they would have preferenced the Deal .

The 50 50 question was after a first question including Deal, No Deal and Remain and therefore more accurate

The only way to get No Dealers' second preferences to count is to eliminate it as an option and force them to make a binary choice between the deal and Remain. An alternative vote style referendum would be resolved by reallocating the votes of the third option which is the deal, not no deal.

DavidL said:

Chris_A said:

In other US news Nancy Pelosi just elected Speaker.

Another mistake by the Dems, I fear. A new face would have been much better.

It was Pelosi who led them to victory, again as in 2006. She is the most successful Democratic election winner US wide alive after Bill Clinton and Obama and a highly effective legislator

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

grabcocque said:

HYUFD said:

They do, certainly Deltapoll. You cling onto polls commissioned by People's Vote, so pot calling kettle back

One thing you're wilfully neglecting to mention was during May's weird two week charm offensive, public opinion against the deal hardened significantly.

Evidence? The Deal frequently beats Remain or No Deal head to head but trails on first preferences

The polls you keep citing did not ask people to answer head-to-head questions and you know this.

Nope Deltapoll did.

The results quoted from Deltapoll were also based on reallocating preferences, not on offering people head-to-head choices.

http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Deltapoll_Fisher181129b.pdf

Which as even that poll only gives 45% to Remain on first preferences would be the only way any 2nd EU referendum could be conducted until one option gets over 50%. On that basis therefore the Deal wins once head to head with Remain or No Deal

That poll is at the extreme low end of Remain's first preferences in three-way polling.

No it isn't, barely any polls have Remain over 50% when all 3 viable options of Remain, Deal and No Deal are included

Almost all of them doing, going right back to Chequers when they started polling on the three options. This was the earliest.

So Remain does not get over 50% even on that poll, proving my point.

Second Remain beats No Deal, so what even I would vote Remain over No Deal that does not prove Remain beats the Deal once No Dealers second preference the Deal in a 3 way choice

There has not been a single poll that has the deal getting more first preferences than no deal, so the only way to end up with a binary Remain/Deal choice is to ask that question outright, and *every* poll that has done this shows Remain with a significant lead.

Nope wrong again.

Deltapoll had the Deal ahead of No Deal on first preferences, Yougov had the Deal tied with No Deal on first preferences

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

Chris_A said:

In other US news Nancy Pelosi just elected Speaker.

Another mistake by the Dems, I fear. A new face would have been much better.

It was Pelosi who led them to victory, again as in 2006. She is the most successful Democratic election winner US wide alive after Bill Clinton and Obama and a highly effective legislator

But she's very Washington. Very. Congress usually has a popularity rating that makes even Trump look good and having her as the most public face of the Democratic party over the next 2 years will not help them in 2020. They need some new leadership and new ideas.

AlastairMeeks said:

felix said:

Alanbrooke said:

Well your emotive response shows why people chose to ignore your obvious baiting

As I said being in the EU doesnt protect us from job losses or premature deaths, so to do a meaningful comparison we must have a baseline.

I wouldn't bother feeding the troll. Most are just ignoring him.

It's a straight question. Do no-deal Leavers believe that any degree of serious disruption is worth it and if so what? Or do they simply think it's not going to happen and will recant if it does?

It should be an easy question for no-deal Leavers to answer. Instead I get evasion.

I infer that the conclusion is that they are prepared to see a lot of deaths and a lot of unemployment as a result of Brexit and would see that as ultimately worth it, but that they don't want to say so.

I'm not really a no-deal leaver, but I can countenance such a thing.

'A lot of deaths' is nonsense as you know full well. It could happen, but then so can all sorts of things.

There are many stripes of 'no-deal' - I think its impossible to actually have a purist version. So, lets just consider a minimal sort of thing. In that case there would be companies that struggled, and it would lead to job losses. However it may also create jobs elsewhere.

I can't see any way of telling whether there would be net gains or losses in employment. Less regulation perhaps can be argued to bring more employment, but I'm not sure whether we'd have more red tape or less. I'm reasonably relaxed about these risks, but risks they are.

There would be short-term disruption of a major kind. That could reduce GDP substantially for a year or so. It doesn't matter so much for the people, but it matters hugely for the Treasury. Two or three horrible years are all it takes to take us back to Brown-land.

For what it's worth I think we should just go with May's deal. We've been robbed, but it is what it is. I think history will judge the fairness of the negotiators from the EU very poorly - particularly the Irish (ex NI). A crash out 'no-deal' though just has too many risks.

So, I'll play. 'No Deal' - the price is serious disruption with unforeseen risks associated with that, but that's it. Not a price I want us to pay, but if it has to be so then I think we can pay such a price.

Gardenwalker said:

DavidL said:

Gardenwalker said:

DavidL said:

Gardenwalker said:

DavidL said:

Mortimer said:

DavidL said:

TGOHF said:

Gardenwalker said:

Top spoofing David. Hope you’re on the mend.

Things seem to be picking up. Whilst there are a number of risk factors and possible set backs I am seeing a path.

But the Jeremiah warnings of no deal are starting to piss me off to the point I would not be that sorry if it happened just so we could see how ridiculous people are being. Again.

Jeremiah warnings have been reasonably accurate, about Corbyn, Brexit *and* Trump.

Corbyn's an arse. Brexit, well we may be able to judge in about 10 years although personally I doubt it. Trump is also an arse but one who has got the US economy motoring. Not sure what your point is.

My point is that it is sad to wish misfortune on the country because you are sick of jeremiads which have actually turned out to relatively accurate.

Corbyn *has* transformed the Labour Party and left wing political discourse into a sewer of extreme left ideology.

Brexit has - so far - destabilised the government, led to a significant devaluation, caused economic stagnation, and weakened Britain geopolitically. And we haven’t even Brexited yet.

Trump has been a disaster for US’s global standing while he has led the most regressive and corrupt adminstration since the 1920s. The economy has done OK, but the stock market is starting to tank in response to the trade wars.

I don't wish misfortune on the country. I support May's deal. Still don't get your examples. People pointing out that Trump is not a fit and proper person to run a corner shop, let alone become President, were hardly Jeremiads. It was the majority view across the world, including the US where he got a minority of the vote.

Brexit is also an unpopular idea, certainly around the world and ever more so here. And No Deal is about as popular as herpes.

Sadly some in the HOC and many in the public at large find it very popular

It has to be stopped but how, I have no idea other than voting for TM deal

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

Chris_A said:

In other US news Nancy Pelosi just elected Speaker.

Another mistake by the Dems, I fear. A new face would have been much better.

It was Pelosi who led them to victory, again as in 2006. She is the most successful Democratic election winner US wide alive after Bill Clinton and Obama and a highly effective legislator

But she's very Washington. Very. Congress usually has a popularity rating that makes even Trump look good and having her as the most public face of the Democratic party over the next 2 years will not help them in 2020. They need some new leadership and new ideas.

It was Pelosi' s victory, end of conversation. She is also the tough legislator they need with a Trump presidency.

Given the 2020 Democratic field is hardly a strong one he may be re elected anyway

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

El_Capitano said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Deltapoll had the Deal beating Remain 62% to 38%

WHAT ??

In a binary choice?

that does not compute, that does not compute, that does not compute ... wires melt, smoke rises, things fall off.

Apologies was a bit closer but Deal beat Remain still comfortably 56% to 44%

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1068243124076593152

While a week and a half later, YouGov did have a 62/38 poll... but 62% Remain, 38% May Deal.

That was from Remain pressure group People's vote.

Yougov actually had it Remain 50% Deal 50% before that

Are you deluded or just being disingenuous? The 62/38 poll was conducted by YouGov. The 50/50 poll DID NOT ASK a head-to-head question but was derived from analysis of preferences.

The 62 38 question was asked on terms set by a pro Remain pressure group and excluded a No Deal option deliberately to ensure No Dealers would not commit to be certain to vote, in which case they would have preferenced the Deal .

The 50 50 question was after a first question including Deal, No Deal and Remain and therefore more accurate

The only way to get No Dealers' second preferences to count is to eliminate it as an option and force them to make a binary choice between the deal and Remain. An alternative vote style referendum would be resolved by reallocating the votes of the third option which is the deal, not no deal.

No not if the Deal beats No Deal on first preferences

There's no indication that it would, nor is there any indication the House of Commons would allow no deal to be an option.

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

El_Capitano said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Deltapoll had the Deal beating Remain 62% to 38%

WHAT ??

In a binary choice?

that does not compute, that does not compute, that does not compute ... wires melt, smoke rises, things fall off.

Apologies was a bit closer but Deal beat Remain still comfortably 56% to 44%

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1068243124076593152

While a week and a half later, YouGov did have a 62/38 poll... but 62% Remain, 38% May Deal.

That was from Remain pressure group People's vote.

Yougov actually had it Remain 50% Deal 50% before that

Are you deluded or just being disingenuous? The 62/38 poll was conducted by YouGov. The 50/50 poll DID NOT ASK a head-to-head question but was derived from analysis of preferences.

The 62 38 question was asked on terms set by a pro Remain pressure group and excluded a No Deal option deliberately to ensure No Dealers would not commit to be certain to vote, in which case they would have preferenced the Deal .

The 50 50 question was after a first question including Deal, No Deal and Remain and therefore more accurate

The only way to get No Dealers' second preferences to count is to eliminate it as an option and force them to make a binary choice between the deal and Remain. An alternative vote style referendum would be resolved by reallocating the votes of the third option which is the deal, not no deal.

No not if the Deal beats No Deal on first preferences

There's no indication that it would, nor is there any indication the House of Commons would allow no deal to be an option.

Even better, May will of course only allow EUref2 to be put foward by the executive to the Commons if the question is stacked up to favour the Deal.

Hence as the Sunday Times reported No Deal would be an option but most likely as a second preference after a straight Leave v Remain first question.

That way Dealers and No Dealers vote Leave to beat Remain, then Deal beats No Deal as Remainers preferred Leave option