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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders drops to 6% chance in the WH2020 nominee betting follo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders drops to 6% chance in the WH2020 nominee betting following claims of sexual harassment during last campaign
The question of whether Bernie Sanders will run in WH2020 has been put in doubt following claims by staffers of sexual harassment during his 2016 campaign. Politico is reporting:
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I doubt we'll be bailing them out this time.
All your base are belong to us:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-46746593
On-topic: age is a factor but next time the Democrat field will be rather more competitive too.
No Deal destroys the Tory party for a generation. Following a (brief) period of civil emergency, we will be forced to sign up to a series of disadvantageous agreements with the EU just to keep the proverbial lights on.
It will be one of those oh shit moments like the collapse of Lehmans. I’d expect May to be ousted by her own Cabinet, perhaps after failed attempts to form a government of National Unity - May herself would not resign to avoid doing a Cameron.
No, May will not opt for a “No Deal”.
Although she is said to he totally against a referendum, seeing it as a betrayal of the vote, it does in fact offer a lifeline to her and her Party.
If her deal wins, May is safe, and Remainerdom will be vanquished. Having failed twice to persuade the public, I’d expect all but the most militant Remainers to shut up.
If Remain wins, I’d expect May to throw Eurosceptics a bone - perhaps even the promise of a third Referendum - but only after a Commission has examined various Options. Some of the fruitier Tories could jump to a moderately revitalised “Farage Party” - which will have used the referendum as a springboard to national relevance - but not enough to make a difference. Remain actually *benefits* the Tories as it helps them start the beginning of the detox they will need for post-Corbyn battles.
https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2018/10/04/joe-bidens-metoo-problem
Give me strength..
The Sajid abides.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwM9t8AFVVc
1. He's a berk
2. He's impatient, wants to be leader now, and he's prepared to debase himself and his office to achieve it
3. His cabinet colleagues don't like him very much
4. (Presumably) Hunt is worried that Sajid's immigrant-baiting will resonate with the gammons in the party and so The Saj (PBUH) needs to be brought down a peg or two
(What's that you say? We import 40% of our Cheddar? Infamy, infamy! That England, that was wont to conquer others ...)
Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.
He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.
“It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.
The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.
Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb
4. Saj paid attention to the voters for the last 4 years. Escaping from France is not a heroic activity.
I reckon that No Brexit is what does most structural damage to the Tory party, for sure costs Mrs May her job, and that No Deal is therefore what is most likely if she cannot get her one through (which I still think she will).
Getting a bit jittery about this Brexit stuff now. Starting to see it as real rather than just a terrific soap opera and betting bonanza.
Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.
I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
If only there was a solution..
She of course was the best PM since the war.
Karma 2
Leo needs a bung
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
But the shape and colour of his head will be a lesser concern than his intent to see criminals* stopped from coming to our shores. His election chances are directly proportional to the decibel-level of the squealing he causes the liberal left.
*key midland marginals view of economic migrants
Quite good reporting for Sajid Javid.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/03/ireland-wants-hundreds-millions-eu-aid-mitigate-damage-no-deal/
"Dublin has told European Commission officials it will apply for the cash to mitigate the impact of no deal on its beef, dairy and fishing sectors, the Irish Independent reported on Thursday.
“You’re looking at hundreds of millions here. Between the beef industry and the fishing industry we’re talking mega-money,” said Michael Creed, the agriculture minister."
https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/2019/01/02/love-corbyn-hate-brexit/
This is a project looking at the views of party members of the big 6 parties. The most recent survey is on the Labour Party members.
There is also an article in the new statesman which looks at the ratings of possible successors to Jeremy Corbyn based on the same survey data.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/01/jeremy-corbyn-s-successor-may-be-more-establishment-you-expect
It'll be fine.
EUref2 leads to Remain. Cannot see any other outcome.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RjBH9psCPI
Also, as we've seen, he's painted a cross on his back now by declaring himself the front runner, so expect lots more "sources closes to cabinet minister" stories about what a prick he is in the next few days.
We only need to see how the next three weeks pan out to have a good idea of the end point
I have tentatively bought a bit of FTSE100 (an index I usually ignore because it is so arbitrary and focused on a small number of stocks in particular sectors), on the basis that it's cheap compared with other markets, has been over-sold because investors are indiscriminately avoiding the UK market, but is actually not really a UK market but an international one protected to some extent by the exchange rate if no-deal happens. But I don't have a lot of confidence either way, and of course there's always the Corbyn/McDonnell risk. Maximum diversification seems called for including some cash.
This not investment advice, DYOR, you might lose your shirt etc etc.
Somebody in his team needs to get him to start wearing hats or fascinators or sweatbands or tiaras or hijabs or SOMETHING to break up his eldritch facial symmetries.
Forshame him.
This is what my Brexit supporting friends worry about, Brexit is going to happen whilst the economy stalls.
It also shows how important Apple are.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/03/apple-shock-profit-warning-sends-european-shares-sliding
Serves 8 my arse......
That's why David Herdson's questions from this morning look good. by asking do you want to leave you No Deal first you mitigate the risk of Leave wining a Leave/ Remain question and No Deal losting the second question....
at some point maximum growth is reached
There's nothing in the text of Article 50 that intrinsically links subsection (2), which defines the process for agreeing the withdrawal arrangements and future relationship, with subsection (3), which is when the effect of the Treaties lapse.
In other words, although the EU Treaties might no longer apply to the UK after 29 March 2019, that doesn't of itself nullify the process for agreeing the future relationship. While there's clearly a bit of a logical disconnect in agreeing a Withdrawal Agreement after withdrawal, I don't think it's necessarily decisive given that the Arrangement was always designed to be used after withdrawal.
Of course, as with all agreements, both/all sides need to agree and it's always possible that the EU27 or the EP might not sign it off (or might demand amendments) if the UK has already left.
Shame.
You mean sticking to the twitterati agreed PC line ?
Sajid may have peaked too early. This leadership election is a marathon not a sprint, and he just shot his wad trying to be the BIG MAN being nasty to six women in a dinghy.
Depending on how the referendum is structured, it's entirely plausible to produce wins for Deal and No Deal as well.
If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.
BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.
IMO the only referendum that in practice will be approved is the binary, Remain vs The Deal.
Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley.
Didn't stop her getting - and keeping - the top job.