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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders drops to 6% chance in the WH2020 nominee betting follo

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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's not for nothing that HYUFD is known as PB's most industrious p-Hacker.

    This is an actual image of HYUFD trying to prove that May's deal being people's third choice and rejected by twice as many people as like it is conclusive proof May will win:

    image

    Just cause you a a fanatic for whom the only alternatives are a hugely divisive EUref2 and far right surge if Remain scrape home and the huge economic damage of No Deal and the damage to the Union does not mean the rest of us are
    I'm just a democrat. I want to respect the will of the people.

    And bless their little socks, they voted for economic chaos.
    No they did not, Leave won promising "the easiest trade deal in history" with the EU
    And remain said that there would be economic chaos. The fact that the electorate chose to ignore the warnings is neither here nor there. Leavers were warned, and they voted for chaos anyway.

    As a democrat, I respect the will of the electorate to make really stupid fucking decisions.
    Would you be annoyed if chaos were not to materialise?
    Incredibly. But I'm sure I'll find something else to amuse myself.
    I find that inexplicable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,737
    HYUFD said:

    Even better, May will of course only allow EUref2 if the question is stacked up to favour the Deal.

    Hence as the Sunday Times reported No Deal would be an option but most likely as a second preference after a straight Leave v Remain first question.

    That way Dealers and No Dealers vote Leave to beat Remain, then Deal beats No Deal as Remainers preferred Leave option

    If May could get parliament to do her bidding to favour the deal, why would we be having a referendum?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Channel 4 News is hilarious! Greyling doing due dilligence on a Somalian pirate ship owner by mistake! You couldn't make it up!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    They do, certainly Deltapoll. You cling onto polls commissioned by People's Vote, so pot calling kettle back

    One thing you're wilfully neglecting to mention was during May's weird two week charm offensive, public opinion against the deal hardened significantly.
    Evidence? The Deal frequently beats Remain or No Deal head to head but trails on first preferences
    The polls you keep citing did not ask people to answer head-to-head questions and you know this.
    Nope Deltapoll did.
    The results quoted from Deltapoll were also based on reallocating preferences, not on offering people head-to-head choices.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Deltapoll_Fisher181129b.pdf
    Which as even that poll only gives 45% to Remain on first preferences would be the only way any 2nd EU referendum could be conducted until one option gets over 50%. On that basis therefore the Deal wins once head to head with Remain or No Deal
    That poll is at the extreme low end of Remain's first preferences in three-way polling.
    No it isn't, barely any polls have Remain over 50% when all 3 viable options of Remain, Deal and No Deal are included
    Almost all of them doing, going right back to Chequers when they started polling on the three options. This was the earliest.

    image
    So Remain does not get over 50% even on that poll, proving my point.

    Second Remain beats No Deal, so what even I would vote Remain over No Deal that does not prove Remain beats the Deal once No Dealers second preference the Deal in a 3 way choice
    What voting system do you think we'd be using? AV doesn't meet the Condorcet criterion

    Civil servants are preparing a straight Remain v Leave first question if an EUref2.

    If Leave wins them Deal v No Deal ie Condorcet
    That looks like a desperate attempt to get Deal to win.

    Under AV it would be knocked out as least popular of the 3 options.

    Why should Remainers get to choose the flavour of Brexit?
  • justin124 said:

    Actual LOL moment at this one:

    https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1080798253577314304

    Labour: 24% of the vote, 5% of the seats.

    Can we interest you in a proportional voting system, guys?

    Where is Justin to reject this poll and claim labour will rise from the ashes in Scotland
    The only Scotland poll published in December had figures of SNP 37% Lab26% Con 26% LD 6%..
    Nice try Justin. Labour are failing in Scotland
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Roger said:

    Channel 4 News is hilarious! Greyling doing due dilligence on a Somalian pirate ship owner by mistake! You couldn't make it up!

    Presumably they passed Grayling's tough due diligence requirements.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    They do, certainly Deltapoll. You cling onto polls commissioned by People's Vote, so pot calling kettle back

    One thing you're wilfully neglecting to mention was during May's weird two week charm offensive, public opinion against the deal hardened significantly.
    Evidence? The Deal frequently beats Remain or No Deal head to head but trails on first preferences
    The polls you keep citing did not ask people to answer head-to-head questions and you know this.
    Nope Deltapoll did.
    The results quoted from Deltapoll were also based on reallocating preferences, not on offering people head-to-head choices.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Deltapoll_Fisher181129b.pdf
    Which as even that poll only gives 45% to Remain on first preferences would be the only way any 2nd EU referendum could be conducted until one option gets over 50%. On that basis therefore the Deal wins once head to head with Remain or No Deal
    That poll is at the extreme low end of Remain's first preferences in three-way polling.
    No it isn't, barely any polls have Remain over 50% when all 3 viable options of Remain, Deal and No Deal are included
    Almost all of them doing, going right back to Chequers when they started polling on the three options. This was the earliest.

    image
    So Remain does not get over 50% even on that poll, proving my point.

    Second Remain beats No Deal, so what even I would vote Remain over No Deal that does not prove Remain beats the Deal once No Dealers second preference the Deal in a 3 way choice
    What voting system do you think we'd be using? AV doesn't meet the Condorcet criterion

    Civil servants are preparing a straight Remain v Leave first question if an EUref2.

    If Leave wins them Deal v No Deal ie Condorcet
    Civil servants can prepare whatever they want. There's no way parliament would vote for it.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Actual LOL moment at this one:

    https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1080798253577314304

    Labour: 24% of the vote, 5% of the seats.

    Can we interest you in a proportional voting system, guys?

    Where is Justin to reject this poll and claim labour will rise from the ashes in Scotland
    The only Scotland poll published in December had figures of SNP 37% Lab26% Con 26% LD 6%..
    Nice try Justin. Labour are failing in Scotland
    No news there at all . That calculation is based on polls dating back to last October. It also takes no account at all of the SNP having underpolled its poll shares in 2017 GE - the Local Elections May 2017 - and Holyrood Election 2016. Do not forget that in mid-May 2017 polls in Scotland had Labour on 19% and the SNP on 42%.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    Not so much waiting as chapping at the door wanting to be let in.
    Assume you meant chaffing (or chopping)

    But what a great typo!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    I agree that this is one possible scenario. Though I think it more likely that a UK volte face will consist of a second referendum rather than a resurrection of May's deceased withdrawal agreement.

    Wonder which is the more excruciating?

    Which one lowers our national self-esteem the most?

    I can't decide.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kinabalu said:

    There has not, to my knowledge, ever been a totally hairless Prime Minister. Not a male one, anyway.

    Are you thinking about last nights thread again?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kinabalu said:

    There has not, to my knowledge, ever been a totally hairless Prime Minister. Not a male one, anyway.

    Are you thinking about last nights thread again?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    edited January 2019
    Charles said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    Not so much waiting as chapping at the door wanting to be let in.
    Assume you meant chaffing (or chopping)

    But what a great typo!
    No, chapping is a Scottish term for knocking.

    Edit: I guess you've got visions of him whacking his chap against the door!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Theresa May is still being a cold, inhuman, unempathic oaf.

    It doesn't matter how many times she brings her vote to parliament. She could bring it back every day. Thrice a day for all the difference it could make.

    But she can never win.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    They do, certainly Deltapoll. You cling onto polls commissioned by People's Vote, so pot calling kettle back

    One thing you're wilfully neglecting to mention was during May's weird two week charm offensive, public opinion against the deal hardened significantly.
    Evidence? The Deal frequently beats Remain or No Deal head to head but trails on first preferences
    The polls you keep citing did not ask people to answer head-to-head questions and you know this.
    Nope Deltapoll did.
    The results quoted from Deltapoll were also based on reallocating preferences, not on offering people head-to-head choices.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Deltapoll_Fisher181129b.pdf
    Which as even that poll only gives 45% to Remain on first preferences would be the only way any 2nd EU referendum could be conducted until one option gets over 50%. On that basis therefore the Deal wins once head to head with Remain or No Deal
    That poll is at the extreme low end of Remain's first preferences in three-way polling.
    No it isn't, barely any polls have Remain over 50% when all 3 viable options of Remain, Deal and No Deal are included
    Almost all of them doing, going right back to Chequers when they started polling on the three options. This was the earliest.

    image
    So Remain does not get over 50% even on that poll, proving my point.

    Second Remain beats No Deal, so what even I would vote Remain over No Deal that does not prove Remain beats the Deal once No Dealers second preference the Deal in a 3 way choice
    What voting system do you think we'd be using? AV doesn't meet the Condorcet criterion

    Civil servants are preparing a straight Remain v Leave first question if an EUref2.

    If Leave wins them Deal v No Deal ie Condorcet
    Civil servants can prepare whatever they want. There's no way parliament would vote for it.
    There is also no way the Government will put forward any EUref2 which does not favour the Deal
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    Even better, May will of course only allow EUref2 if the question is stacked up to favour the Deal.

    Hence as the Sunday Times reported No Deal would be an option but most likely as a second preference after a straight Leave v Remain first question.

    That way Dealers and No Dealers vote Leave to beat Remain, then Deal beats No Deal as Remainers preferred Leave option

    If May could get parliament to do her bidding to favour the deal, why would we be having a referendum?
    If in the unlikely event Parliament voted for EUref2 using the Grieve amendment it would still require government support to become law
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    They do, certainly Deltapoll. You cling onto polls commissioned by People's Vote, so pot calling kettle back

    One thing you're wilfully neglecting to mention was during May's weird two week charm offensive, public opinion against the deal hardened significantly.
    Evidence? The Deal frequently beats Remain or No Deal head to head but trails on first preferences
    The polls you keep citing did not ask people to answer head-to-head questions and you know this.
    Nope Deltapoll did.
    The results quoted from Deltapoll were also based on reallocating preferences, not on offering people head-to-head choices.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Deltapoll_Fisher181129b.pdf
    Which as even that poll only gives 45% to Remain on first preferences would be the only way any 2nd EU referendum could be conducted until one option gets over 50%. On that basis therefore the Deal wins once head to head with Remain or No Deal
    That poll is at the extreme low end of Remain's first preferences in three-way polling.
    No it isn't, barely any polls have Remain over 50% when all 3 viable options of Remain, Deal and No Deal are included
    Almost all of them doing, going right back to Chequers when they started polling on the three options. This was the earliest.

    image
    So Remain does not get over 50% even on that poll, proving my point.

    Second Remain beats No Deal, so what even I would vote Remain over No Deal that does not prove Remain beats the Deal once No Dealers second preference the Deal in a 3 way choice
    What voting system do you think we'd be using? AV doesn't meet the Condorcet criterion

    Civil servants are preparing a straight Remain v Leave first question if an EUref2.

    If Leave wins them Deal v No Deal ie Condorcet
    That looks like a desperate attempt to get Deal to win.

    Under AV it would be knocked out as least popular of the 3 options.

    Why should Remainers get to choose the flavour of Brexit?
    As they plus Dealers make up a majority of the country
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Oh, I agree. We live in a society where snowflakes get triggered by vegetarian sausage rolls, so I don't put much stock in the ability of the simplefolk to emote on cue.


  • What voting system do you think we'd be using? AV doesn't meet the Condorcet criterion

    +++ AV THREAD KLAXON +++

    Somebody open up TSE's sarcophagus and tell him he's needed.
    The same AV rejected by the UK voters in 2011 by 68% to 32%? That AV?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    They do, certainly Deltapoll. You cling onto polls commissioned by People's Vote, so pot calling kettle back

    One thing you're wilfully neglecting to mention was during May's weird two week charm offensive, public opinion against the deal hardened significantly.
    Evidence? The Deal frequently beats Remain or No Deal head to head but trails on first preferences
    The polls you keep citing did not ask people to answer head-to-head questions and you know this.
    Nope Deltapoll did.
    The results quoted from Deltapoll were also based on reallocating preferences, not on offering people head-to-head choices.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Deltapoll_Fisher181129b.pdf
    Which as even that poll only gives 45% to Remain on first preferences would be the only way any 2nd EU referendum could be conducted until one option gets over 50%. On that basis therefore the Deal wins once head to head with Remain or No Deal
    That poll is at the extreme low end of Remain's first preferences in three-way polling.
    No it isn't, barely any polls have Remain over 50% when all 3 viable options of Remain, Deal and No Deal are included
    Almost all of them doing, going right back to Chequers when they started polling on the three options. This was the earliest.

    image
    So Remain does not get over 50% even on that poll, proving my point.

    Second Remain beats No Deal, so what even I would vote Remain over No Deal that does not prove Remain beats the Deal once No Dealers second preference the Deal in a 3 way choice
    What voting system do you think we'd be using? AV doesn't meet the Condorcet criterion

    Civil servants are preparing a straight Remain v Leave first question if an EUref2.

    If Leave wins them Deal v No Deal ie Condorcet
    That looks like a desperate attempt to get Deal to win.

    Under AV it would be knocked out as least popular of the 3 options.

    Why should Remainers get to choose the flavour of Brexit?
    As they plus Dealers make up a majority of the country
    Used car dealers?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234



    What voting system do you think we'd be using? AV doesn't meet the Condorcet criterion

    +++ AV THREAD KLAXON +++

    Somebody open up TSE's sarcophagus and tell him he's needed.
    The same AV rejected by the UK voters in 2011 by 68% to 32%? That AV?
    No, this is AV is different, this is the [checks back of fag packet] *Angry* vote system. The more angry you are, the more votes you get.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Michael Gove just retweeted that Blairite piece on why the backstop is just gosh-darned amazing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Is that a reference to Ramsgate?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Oh, I agree. We live in a society where snowflakes get triggered by vegetarian sausage rolls, so I don't put much stock in the ability of the simplefolk to emote on cue.
    I don't think it was the snowflakes who were triggered by the vegan sausage rolls - it looked to me to be Gammons who were triggered. Piers Morgan has never struck me as a snowflake....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    Not too short, of course. You have to make sure the UK is nice and desperate, the government in chaos, broken and cowed, the economy in deep depression.

    That's when you "graciously" come to the negotiating table to allow us to once again kiss the euro-ring.

    That does sound like a 'deep and special partnership' but not necessarily of the sort we had in mind!

    Ref your previous reply, 'the withdrawal agreement does not make sense for a 3rd party country'.

    No, ok, I have not read the text but I can imagine that it doesn't.

    So what. Doesn't matter. It's about the politics.

    2 possible views on that:

    (i) If the EU's main concern is alleviating mutual pain, whilst still humiliating Blighty, then they might perhaps allow the WA to be implemented on May 10th.

    (ii) If the EU's main concern is to utterly and completely humiliate Blighty, to make sure that Blighty's face is ground into the dust, so that nobody ever again even contemplates leaving, then they would not no way allow it.

    Sounds like you are fair square in (ii).

    Whereas I, soppy old idealist that I am, would not rule out (i).
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Oh, I agree. We live in a society where snowflakes get triggered by vegetarian sausage rolls, so I don't put much stock in the ability of the simplefolk to emote on cue.
    I don't think it was the snowflakes who were triggered by the vegan sausage rolls - it looked to me to be Gammons who were triggered. Piers Morgan has never struck me as a snowflake....
    Triggered by a vegan sausage roll seems pretty damn snowflakey to me.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    Unlikely to be crying because they fear for their family’s future, unless they are out-and-out racists.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pelosi is going to have a fun two years. She understands how to engage the media over Trump unlike other Democrats.

    https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1080804099363401730?s=19
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Is that a reference to Ramsgate?
    Any references to the harbours and toothless homunculi of Thanet are purely unintentional.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited January 2019
    Alistair said:

    Pelosi is going to have a fun two years. She understands how to engage the media over Trump unlike other Democrats.

    https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1080804099363401730?s=19

    Because Trump is a massive misogynist, he gets very angry if a woman dares to question his knowledge, wisdom or judgment.

    Ms Pelosi knows this.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Michael Gove just retweeted that Blairite piece on why the backstop is just gosh-darned amazing.

    Contains the line:

    “But that’s at least in part because milk and honey will be in short supply whatever form of Brexit we get: there are no really good deals to be had here. All we can do is try to choose the least bad option.”

    We’re quite a long way from Gove’s intense confidence during the campaign, aren’t we?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    Unlikely to be crying because they fear for their family’s future, unless they are out-and-out racists.
    The crying on either side is due to spiritual pain. For most people, there won't be much material difference.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kinabalu said:


    Whereas I, soppy old idealist that I am, would not rule out (i).

    I don't see how it could implement the WA, since it no longer has the legal authority to conclude a withdrawal agreement after the 29th March.

    However, after the 29th March, the EU will have legal authority to negotiate one or more trade agreements with the UK as a third country, and they'd of course be able to take the existing WA as a blueprint.

    But it would be a new negotiation, on a new document, even if that document is based in whole or in part on the WA. And the UK will be in an even weaker position than it is now, so it's reasonable to assume that the document, whatever it might be, would be even less favourable to the UK than the current monstrosity of a withdrawal agreement.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    We should revoke Article 50 purely for this

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1080877688200577027

    Freedom of moovement?

    (At the shop we have a cheque in the form of a watercolour that one of our customers wrote)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,737
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    Unlikely to be crying because they fear for their family’s future, unless they are out-and-out racists.
    The crying on either side is due to spiritual pain. For most people, there won't be much material difference.
    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1080891694881665026
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited January 2019

    Michael Gove just retweeted that Blairite piece on why the backstop is just gosh-darned amazing.

    Contains the line:

    “But that’s at least in part because milk and honey will be in short supply whatever form of Brexit we get: there are no really good deals to be had here. All we can do is try to choose the least bad option.”

    We’re quite a long way from Gove’s intense confidence during the campaign, aren’t we?
    Gove is shit scared of no-deal now. He gazed into the soul of no-deal brexit, and I think it gazed back.

    HE IS WEAK.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Michael Gove just retweeted that Blairite piece on why the backstop is just gosh-darned amazing.

    Contains the line:

    “But that’s at least in part because milk and honey will be in short supply whatever form of Brexit we get: there are no really good deals to be had here. All we can do is try to choose the least bad option.”

    We’re quite a long way from Gove’s intense confidence during the campaign, aren’t we?
    I suppose it is better than simply refusing to accept things are more difficult than originally promised.
  • Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    Unlikely to be crying because they fear for their family’s future, unless they are out-and-out racists.
    The crying on either side is due to spiritual pain. For most people, there won't be much material difference.
    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1080891694881665026
    Vegan sausage rolls!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited January 2019
    kle4 said:

    Michael Gove just retweeted that Blairite piece on why the backstop is just gosh-darned amazing.

    Contains the line:

    “But that’s at least in part because milk and honey will be in short supply whatever form of Brexit we get: there are no really good deals to be had here. All we can do is try to choose the least bad option.”

    We’re quite a long way from Gove’s intense confidence during the campaign, aren’t we?
    I suppose it is better than simply refusing to accept things are more difficult than originally promised.
    You just have to

    dunkirk the blitz the blitz BELIEVE

    dunkirk the blitz the blitz IN

    dunkirk the blitz the blitz BRITAIN.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2019
    New Electoral Calculus forecast based on December's polls:

    Con 291
    Lab 280
    LD 16
    Greens 1
    SNP 41
    PC 3
    NI 18

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    AndyJS said:

    New Electoral Calculus forecast based on December's polls:

    Con 291
    Lab 280
    LD 16
    Greens 1
    SNP 41
    PC 3
    NI 18

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    Chaos with Ed Miliband!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    kle4 said:

    Michael Gove just retweeted that Blairite piece on why the backstop is just gosh-darned amazing.

    Contains the line:

    “But that’s at least in part because milk and honey will be in short supply whatever form of Brexit we get: there are no really good deals to be had here. All we can do is try to choose the least bad option.”

    We’re quite a long way from Gove’s intense confidence during the campaign, aren’t we?
    I suppose it is better than simply refusing to accept things are more difficult than originally promised.
    Seems like only Rees-Mogg is persisting in the unicorns line, now.

    The rest are suffering from the Freudian challenges of major cognitive dissonance.

    There are about a dozen people left in the country who still thinks Brexit is worth doing for its own merits. Sadly they are all insane, and most of them post on here.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,081
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    It saddens me deeply that, in 30 years' time, people might be really regretting that we didn't leave the EU when we had the chance. "If only they'd held their nerve ..."

    Good evening, everyone.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    HYUFD said:

    It's not for nothing that HYUFD is known as PB's most industrious p-Hacker.

    This is an actual image of HYUFD trying to prove that May's deal being people's third choice and rejected by twice as many people as like it is conclusive proof May will win:

    image

    Just cause you a a fanatic for whom the only alternatives are a hugely divisive EUref2 and far right surge if Remain scrape home and the huge economic damage of No Deal and the damage to the Union does not mean the rest of us are
    (contd. p94)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    New Electoral Calculus forecast based on December's polls:

    Con 291
    Lab 280
    LD 16
    Greens 1
    SNP 41
    PC 3
    NI 18

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    Chaos with Ed Miliband!
    The question is whether the LDs would support a Corbyn-led government.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    New Electoral Calculus forecast based on December's polls:

    Con 291
    Lab 280
    LD 16
    Greens 1
    SNP 41
    PC 3
    NI 18

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    Chaos with Ed Miliband!
    The question is whether the LDs would support a Corbyn-led government.
    The only really possible government on those numbers is either Labour minority or a Lab-SNP coalition. Bringing in the LDs won't get you the numbers, and they'll support you anyway. No point.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fpt:

    Following a (brief) period of civil emergency,.

    A civil emergency due to brie supplies being delayed at Calais for a few extra hours ?

    Give me strength..
    It's not the brie, that will just ripen nicely. What about the Beaujolais nouveau? Imagine if it got reviewed before you had even tasted it. Would you be able to go to a Brussels dinner party again?
    Top spoofing David. Hope you’re on the mend.
    Things seem to be picking up. Whilst there are a number of risk factors and possible set backs I am seeing a path.

    Seriously though, I am a dealer because Brexit is not just for Christmas, not even mine. What we need to think about here is not April 2019 but the next 20 years. Do we leave the EU with some wistful regrets and promises to work together on subjects of mutual interest, having paid our bills and sorted things out tidily or do we go off in the huff tearing up any chance of them wanting to deal with us on anything for the foreseeable? With Ireland the latter approach cost us about 70 years of good relations and we could do the same with the whole EU. The deal is just the adult way to behave.

    But the Jeremiah warnings of no deal are starting to piss me off to the point I would not be that sorry if it happened just so we could see how ridiculous people are being. Again.
    Glad to hear things are moving in the right direction.

    Re No Deal... how can you be confident the doomsayers are wrong?
    We manage to trade with a large number of countries without any trade deal. Works perfectly well. In April we will have exactly the same standards as the EU for everything. Absolutely everything. We even enforce them. The idea that there is going to be any significant disruption in trade is just hysteria. But for the sake of good future relations we should take the deal. Its in our long term interests.
    +1, albeit with two caveats

    1. Dropping out without a deal also means dropping out of deals with lots of countries that have much higher tariff schedules than the EU, such as South Korea
    2. There are a lot of technical issues - such as double taxation, withholding taxes and haulage licenses - that will cause pain. Individually they are small issues. Collectively, they will likely be a pain.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited January 2019
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    New Electoral Calculus forecast based on December's polls:

    Con 291
    Lab 280
    LD 16
    Greens 1
    SNP 41
    PC 3
    NI 18

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    Chaos with Ed Miliband!
    The question is whether the LDs would support a Corbyn-led government.
    On those figures, Labour would only need support from SNP, Plaid and the Green to take them to 325. With no SF taking their seats only 323 would be needed. In reality, I would expect Labour to be on circa 295 with SNP on circa 25.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Hi
    AnneJGP said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    It saddens me deeply that, in 30 years' time, people might be really regretting that we didn't leave the EU when we had the chance. "If only they'd held their nerve ..."

    Good evening, everyone.
    Presumably we could leave in 30 years.

    Indeed, we can/could leave whenever we like, however it would be best to do so in a planned way. Not through constitutional vandalism and negotiation via right wing tabloid headlines.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.
    Not so much waiting as chapping at the door wanting to be let in.
    Assume you meant chaffing (or chopping)

    But what a great typo!
    No, chapping is a Scottish term for knocking.

    Edit: I guess you've got visions of him whacking his chap against the door!
    I didn’t. Until now. You barstewart.

    Hunt has the “jolly good chap” mien off pat. Assumed that’s what you were referring to
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
    But EU workers don't cause wage reductions, about a thousand studies conducted by liberals all said so!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,737
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
    And how would that prevent her own job moving to Dublin?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    New Electoral Calculus forecast based on December's polls:

    Con 291
    Lab 280
    LD 16
    Greens 1
    SNP 41
    PC 3
    NI 18

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    Chaos with Ed Miliband!
    The question is whether the LDs would support a Corbyn-led government.
    On those figures, Labour would only need support from SNP, Plaid and the Green to take them to 325. With no SF taking their seats only 323 would be needed. In reality, I would expect Labour to be on circa 295 with SNP on circa 25.
    Where do you think the left wing Pro EU Scottish voters are going to go after Corbyn betrays them?
  • Did Hawkeye fail there in the footy? That looked suspiciously over the line.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Did Hawkeye fail there in the footy? That looked suspiciously over the line.

    Mr Eagles (sitting in the ‘wrong’ end) would have been biting his tongue, that’s for sure. About as close to a goal as is possible as the defender ran back, maybe 5mm of the ball not across the line?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Did Hawkeye fail there in the footy? That looked suspiciously over the line.

    Not according to the BBC blog:

    "We've just seen the goalline technology replay - the whole ball was not over the line. A sliver of leather, about a single segment of a Terry's chocolate orange, prevents Liverpool from taking the lead."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Did Hawkeye fail there in the footy? That looked suspiciously over the line.

    No, unlike the NFL where the start of the ball has to cross the line, in association football the entire ball must be over.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Pulpstar said:

    Did Hawkeye fail there in the footy? That looked suspiciously over the line.

    No, unlike the NFL where the start of the ball has to cross the line, in association football the entire ball must be over.
    Yes, whole ball over whole line. TV replay and the Hawkeye looked the same - very close, but no cigar.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    Charles said:

    Are you thinking about last nights thread again?

    Didn't think so but subliminally I think I must have been. I come here for politics, I'm a deadly serious type, but I don't mind other topics. Certainly pubic hair is not to be sniffed at. As a topic.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    kinabalu said:

    Charles said:

    Are you thinking about last nights thread again?

    Didn't think so but subliminally I think I must have been. I come here for politics, I'm a deadly serious type, but I don't mind other topics. Certainly pubic hair is not to be sniffed at. As a topic.
    It's a damn sight more fluffy (copyright: Sister Wendy Beckett) than endless bloody Brexit.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
    There wasn't a dry eye in the house.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Pelosi is going to have a fun two years. She understands how to engage the media over Trump unlike other Democrats.

    https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1080804099363401730?s=19

    Because Trump is a massive misogynist, he gets very angry if a woman dares to question his knowledge, wisdom or judgment.

    Ms Pelosi knows this.
    I presume Pelosi is aiming to draw all Trump ire onto her to free up potential Presidential candidates to actually develop a narrative that doesn't consist entirely of the media breathlessly reporting every retort that Trump comes up with rather than what the candidate actually said.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Is TSE pretending to cheer in the crowd?!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Peterborough MP expelled by Labour.

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/fiona-onasanya-expelled-by-labour-as-party-chief-tells-peterborough-voters-you-were-failed-1-8757721

    Lavery appears to be keen for her removal as MP.

    If Fiona Onasanya is given a custodial sentence of more than 12 months, who moves the writ for a by-election?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Ave_it said:

    Is TSE pretending to cheer in the crowd?!

    If City win it's his fault for contributing to the buoyant atmosphere.
  • Currently scanning the crowd looking for an Asian chap dressed in Burberry pretending badly to be extreme happy!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    dr_spyn said:

    Peterborough MP expelled by Labour.

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/fiona-onasanya-expelled-by-labour-as-party-chief-tells-peterborough-voters-you-were-failed-1-8757721

    Lavery appears to be keen for her removal as MP.

    If Fiona Onasanya is given a custodial sentence of more than 12 months, who moves the writ for a by-election?

    Amazing how quick the Labour party's internal disciplinary processes can be. When they want to be, that is.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    kle4 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Is TSE pretending to cheer in the crowd?!

    If City win it's his fault for contributing to the buoyant atmosphere.
    I hope City win. My son's at at the match and he's a fan.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
    But EU workers don't cause wage reductions, about a thousand studies conducted by liberals all said so!
    No but they may have removed any incentive to increase wages - to the point that a foolish company may have forgotten how you encouraged people to join your firm when the labour market is tight..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Is TSE pretending to cheer in the crowd?!

    If City win it's his fault for contributing to the buoyant atmosphere.
    I hope City win. My son's at at the match and he's a fan.
    Keeps the title race interesting too. A Liverpool win means they're very heavy favourites
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Alistair said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    New Electoral Calculus forecast based on December's polls:

    Con 291
    Lab 280
    LD 16
    Greens 1
    SNP 41
    PC 3
    NI 18

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    Chaos with Ed Miliband!
    The question is whether the LDs would support a Corbyn-led government.
    On those figures, Labour would only need support from SNP, Plaid and the Green to take them to 325. With no SF taking their seats only 323 would be needed. In reality, I would expect Labour to be on circa 295 with SNP on circa 25.
    Where do you think the left wing Pro EU Scottish voters are going to go after Corbyn betrays them?
    I think it unlikely that voters in Scotland are any more obsessed with Brexit than is the case elsewhere in the UK. Much more likely that they are sick to death of the subject.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
    It's almost like supply of workers is price elastic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
    But EU workers don't cause wage reductions, about a thousand studies conducted by liberals all said so!
    No but they may have removed any incentive to increase wages - to the point that a foolish company may have forgotten how you encouraged people to join your firm when the labour market is tight..
    Yes, the benefit that I expect from Brexit is staff shortages pushing up my wages, or at least overtime rates :)

    Its a feature, not a bug, to push up wages of sturdy British yeomen like Dr Foxy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Is TSE pretending to cheer in the crowd?!

    If City win it's his fault for contributing to the buoyant atmosphere.
    I hope City win. My son's at at the match and he's a fan.
    Keeps the title race interesting too. A Liverpool win means they're very heavy favourites
    Exactly! I fear they will choke now. Sigh
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    dr_spyn said:

    Peterborough MP expelled by Labour.

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/fiona-onasanya-expelled-by-labour-as-party-chief-tells-peterborough-voters-you-were-failed-1-8757721

    Lavery appears to be keen for her removal as MP.

    If Fiona Onasanya is given a custodial sentence of more than 12 months, who moves the writ for a by-election?

    Anyone else enjoying the delicious irony of Ian Lavery putting the boot into someone for dishonesty?

    It's like Piers Morgan accusing someone of being a sanctimonious tosser.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    dr_spyn said:

    Peterborough MP expelled by Labour.

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/fiona-onasanya-expelled-by-labour-as-party-chief-tells-peterborough-voters-you-were-failed-1-8757721

    Lavery appears to be keen for her removal as MP.

    If Fiona Onasanya is given a custodial sentence of more than 12 months, who moves the writ for a by-election?

    When is sentencing, do we know?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
    It's almost like supply of workers is price elastic.
    It hasn't been since about 2005. Badly run businesses have gotten used to having an almost unlimited pool of unskilled cheap labourers. It has held back investment in staff, machinery and efficient allocation of resources. I know how you loathe the productivity discussion, however, EU labour market is, IMO, the primary reason why UK productivity is so poor as it is coupled with generally poor short termist management we've always suffered from.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Is TSE pretending to cheer in the crowd?!

    If City win it's his fault for contributing to the buoyant atmosphere.
    I hope City win. My son's at at the match and he's a fan.
    Keeps the title race interesting too. A Liverpool win means they're very heavy favourites
    Exactly! I fear they will choke now. Sigh
    Liverpool are still 4 points clear, but it does keep it interesting.

    Man City are much better with Fernandinho back.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    Cyclefree said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Peterborough MP expelled by Labour.

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/fiona-onasanya-expelled-by-labour-as-party-chief-tells-peterborough-voters-you-were-failed-1-8757721

    Lavery appears to be keen for her removal as MP.

    If Fiona Onasanya is given a custodial sentence of more than 12 months, who moves the writ for a by-election?

    Amazing how quick the Labour party's internal disciplinary processes can be. When they want to be, that is.
    To be fair (why?) this situation is surely different.

    In many other cases, people have been accused of things that are often not illegal, or sometimes even immoral. There is no criminal investigation, and therefore the party itself has to undertake a formal process to examine what went on. This takes time, especially if the process is to be fair to all parties.

    In this case, there has been a criminal investigation, a prosecution, and she has been found guilty. They probably hoped she would stand down, and have given her time to do so. As she has not, they have expelled her.

    If you say that Labour's internal processes appear to have been poor in the past, and applied unequally and unfairly, then I would agree with you. But this case is an extreme and easy one for Labour - at least from a process POV.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited January 2019
    Ouch. Channel 4:


    The Transport Secretary Chris Grayling yesterday assured this programme that his department had done “detailed work” on the financial and operational plans of the British company Seabourne Freight, which has been contracted to supply ferries between Ramsgate and Ostend in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

    But we have been told that Chief Executive Ben Sharp once ran a shipping company that ceased trading – owing more than a million pounds to multiple shipping companies.

    Mr Sharp has denied the allegations.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Is TSE pretending to cheer in the crowd?!

    If City win it's his fault for contributing to the buoyant atmosphere.
    I hope City win. My son's at at the match and he's a fan.
    Keeps the title race interesting too. A Liverpool win means they're very heavy favourites
    Exactly! I fear they will choke now. Sigh
    Liverpool are still 4 points clear, but it does keep it interesting.

    Man City are much better with Fernandinho back.
    I'd definitely rather have the Oil barons win ahead of the scousers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,737
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
    It's almost like supply of workers is price elastic.
    It hasn't been since about 2005. Badly run businesses have gotten used to having an almost unlimited pool of unskilled cheap labourers. It has held back investment in staff, machinery and efficient allocation of resources. I know how you loathe the productivity discussion, however, EU labour market is, IMO, the primary reason why UK productivity is so poor as it is coupled with generally poor short termist management we've always suffered from.
    How many of the kind of businesses you describe couldn't employ labour more cheaply outside the UK?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
    It's almost like supply of workers is price elastic.
    It hasn't been since about 2005. Badly run businesses have gotten used to having an almost unlimited pool of unskilled cheap labourers. It has held back investment in staff, machinery and efficient allocation of resources. I know how you loathe the productivity discussion, however, EU labour market is, IMO, the primary reason why UK productivity is so poor as it is coupled with generally poor short termist management we've always suffered from.
    How many of the kind of businesses you describe couldn't employ labour more cheaply outside the UK?
    Starbucks?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Is TSE pretending to cheer in the crowd?!

    If City win it's his fault for contributing to the buoyant atmosphere.
    I hope City win. My son's at at the match and he's a fan.
    Keeps the title race interesting too. A Liverpool win means they're very heavy favourites
    Exactly! I fear they will choke now. Sigh
    Liverpool are still 4 points clear, but it does keep it interesting.

    Man City are much better with Fernandinho back.
    I'd definitely rather have the Oil barons win ahead of the scousers.
    Nah, Klopps Liverpool are far more interesting to watch as a neutral.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
    It's almost like supply of workers is price elastic.
    I’m just surprised that lefties are sympathising with a capitalist who wants to drive down wages and keep more of the profits for themselves
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Is TSE pretending to cheer in the crowd?!

    If City win it's his fault for contributing to the buoyant atmosphere.
    I hope City win. My son's at at the match and he's a fan.
    Keeps the title race interesting too. A Liverpool win means they're very heavy favourites
    Exactly! I fear they will choke now. Sigh
    Liverpool are still 4 points clear, but it does keep it interesting.

    Man City are much better with Fernandinho back.
    I'd definitely rather have the Oil barons win ahead of the scousers.
    Nah, Klopps Liverpool are far more interesting to watch as a neutral.
    Yes, but I fear they'll never shut up about it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
    It's almost like supply of workers is price elastic.
    I’m just surprised that lefties are sympathising with a capitalist who wants to drive down wages and keep more of the profits for themselves
    Brexit has made for some odd bedfellows.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,737
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
    It's almost like supply of workers is price elastic.
    It hasn't been since about 2005. Badly run businesses have gotten used to having an almost unlimited pool of unskilled cheap labourers. It has held back investment in staff, machinery and efficient allocation of resources. I know how you loathe the productivity discussion, however, EU labour market is, IMO, the primary reason why UK productivity is so poor as it is coupled with generally poor short termist management we've always suffered from.
    How many of the kind of businesses you describe couldn't employ labour more cheaply outside the UK?
    Starbucks?
    And you think the UK's low productivity is down to the lack of automation in coffee shops?
  • Hi

    AnneJGP said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    It saddens me deeply that, in 30 years' time, people might be really regretting that we didn't leave the EU when we had the chance. "If only they'd held their nerve ..."

    Good evening, everyone.
    Presumably we could leave in 30 years.

    Indeed, we can/could leave whenever we like, however it would be best to do so in a planned way. Not through constitutional vandalism and negotiation via right wing tabloid headlines.
    The point being that however hard it is to leave now it will be far, far worse in a decade> Indeed there are many Remainers out there already claiming that the problems we are having are entirely because it is extremely hard if not impossible to disentangle ourselves from the EU. I don't agree we are at that point yet but it is certainly coming if we don't leave now.

    Short of collapse of the Euro and the EU itself I don't believe any other country will now manage to leave no matter how bad things get.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    justin124 said:

    Alistair said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    New Electoral Calculus forecast based on December's polls:

    Con 291
    Lab 280
    LD 16
    Greens 1
    SNP 41
    PC 3
    NI 18

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    Chaos with Ed Miliband!
    The question is whether the LDs would support a Corbyn-led government.
    On those figures, Labour would only need support from SNP, Plaid and the Green to take them to 325. With no SF taking their seats only 323 would be needed. In reality, I would expect Labour to be on circa 295 with SNP on circa 25.
    Where do you think the left wing Pro EU Scottish voters are going to go after Corbyn betrays them?
    I think it unlikely that voters in Scotland are any more obsessed with Brexit than is the case elsewhere in the UK. Much more likely that they are sick to death of the subject.
    Edinburgh voters voted 74% Remain, they only voted 61% No.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Is TSE pretending to cheer in the crowd?!

    If City win it's his fault for contributing to the buoyant atmosphere.
    I hope City win. My son's at at the match and he's a fan.
    Keeps the title race interesting too. A Liverpool win means they're very heavy favourites
    Exactly! I fear they will choke now. Sigh
    Liverpool are still 4 points clear, but it does keep it interesting.

    Man City are much better with Fernandinho back.
    Still Liverpool's to lose.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited January 2019

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:
    Powerful. It helped that the blond lady was the perfect pantomime villain. Loathsome Leavers.....
    Some people will cry when Brexit does not happen too, will it be powerful to see them weep and should that mean we should leave after all?
    WE WILL DRINK DEEP OF THEIR DELICIOUS SALTY TEARS.
    Whatever you think is a good time I guess. But as sad as it might be for people, that people will cry about something is not, in itself, an argument, however powerful it is emotionally.
    Her argument was that they didn’t have enough workers for her husbands company. She could try paying them more.
    It's almost like supply of workers is price elastic.
    It hasn't been since about 2005. Badly run businesses have gotten used to having an almost unlimited pool of unskilled cheap labourers. It has held back investment in staff, machinery and efficient allocation of resources. I know how you loathe the productivity discussion, however, EU labour market is, IMO, the primary reason why UK productivity is so poor as it is coupled with generally poor short termist management we've always suffered from.
    How many of the kind of businesses you describe couldn't employ labour more cheaply outside the UK?
    Starbucks?
    And you think the UK's low productivity is down to the lack of automation in coffee shops?
    No, but having 25 low wage workers do the job that 15 higher wage ones could do with a more efficient allocation of resources contributes to why productivity is shite.

    Also 15 Albanians and Romanians working in a carwash instead of a machine in a forecourt.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Ouch. Channel 4:


    The Transport Secretary Chris Grayling yesterday assured this programme that his department had done “detailed work” on the financial and operational plans of the British company Seabourne Freight, which has been contracted to supply ferries between Ramsgate and Ostend in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

    But we have been told that Chief Executive Ben Sharp once ran a shipping company that ceased trading – owing more than a million pounds to multiple shipping companies.

    Mr Sharp has denied the allegations.

    I think that’s inappropriate of Channel 4 to run a story like that.

    Your description (or it could be their’s) is loose but there are two possible interpretations:

    (1) he (ran vs did not run) a company that ceased trading etc

    (2) a company that he ran ceased trading but (did or did not owe more than a million) etc

    Either of those are simple questions of fact

    But they’ve run an unproven allegation when they could have checked the facts relatively easily. And in so doing have damaged his reputation if he is innocent

    That is poor and unethical journalism
This discussion has been closed.