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kle4 said:

Awb683 said:

If we get a united Ireland after a proper Brexit so be it.

Fair play to you for preferring that, but a lot of the harder Brexiters are seemingly in favour of the UK union, so should be more concerned at its break up.

I think it's pretty logically incoherent for anyone who voted for Brexit to be against a nation wanting the right to self determination, if that nation believes that their rules are made by a distant and disinterested foreign power when they should be made by their own democratically elected governments at home.

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

kyf_100 said:

The_Taxman said:

RobD said:

The_Taxman said:

RobD said:

They can do that with or without Brexit.

Yes, but it has more economic and psychological impact if a No Deal Brexit occurs.

Look to recent statements from the Chief officer of the Port of Dover on their inability to function in a hard Brexit. If you have all the ports gridlocked, then the airports are shutdown the economy will be severely impaired.

Given the UKs present relations with Russia it is not inconceivable that this sort of attack on our infrastructure might be co-ordinated with the biggest self-imposed hit to our economy in years.

In my opinion it is more likely to be a non-state actor. I’m not sure what the response would be if it was found to be the Russians. Would be totally unacceptable.

I think it would be a non-state actor but financed by Russia.

The sort of activity that has been going on in Ukraine for instance. Russia have changed the method of war by creating asymmetrical conflicts that seem to be inspired by terrorist type activity.

If it is Russian backed interference in our infrastructure, what can we do other than pile more sanctions on them and increase counter intelligence spending.

The UK is wide open to Russian interference, I hope OFCOM closes RT down as well! I say this in the knowledge that the World service will be shut down in Russia as well. Surely, the World Service should be replaced by something that actively promotes western values instead of being a balanced broadcast. Play them at their own game!

The correct answer, when they murdered people on our soil, was to retaliate in kind and kill a couple of theirs on their home turf. An equal and proportionate response. Eye for eye, tooth for tooth, burn for burn, wound for wound, stripe for stripe.

Tito had it right: "Stop sending people to kill me! We've already captured five of them, one of them with a bomb and another with a rifle... If you don't stop sending killers, I'll send a very fast working one to Moscow and I certainly won't have to send another." (to Stalin)

kle4 said:

An analogy seemingly designed to upset those in support of the UK.

The analogy is utterly ridiculous.

Brexit does get over-dramatized, though, don't you think?

On both sides, I mean.

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cyclefree said:

This drone story is most odd I must say.

For two days, an airport is shut down. The drone (or drones) is not shot out of the sky but just stops appearing. No individual or group claims responsibility. The operator is not, as far as we know, found and arrested. And yet from one day to the next, the airport is declared safe for flying.

It is most odd.

High tech drone detection and tracking systems have been installed and effectively negates the drone

It is likely the company who have developed this tech will be in line for billions of pounds worth of contracts worldwide

Perhaps it's them operating the drone...

I know you display amazing cynicism but that is a step too far

No, I am not a cynic. I have a healthy optimism concerning the human spirit. It is why I am a Lib Dem and a Remainer. Suspicious cynicism is no way to go through life, it rots the soul.

My comment was meant as a joke! I do not seriously think that drone defence systems are running a protection racket.

Maybe I was a bit unfair Dr Foxy and let us all hope that the disaster that is Brexit is resolved to the approval of a majority

May you have a wonderful christmas and may we all have a great 2019 either with the WDA now on offer or we remain

I have drawn the short straw at work so have a fairly busy week of emergency duties. Generally it goes a bit quieter, but yours truly will need to be sober and available all week. As if to grind my nose in it, patients and colleagues keep giving me bottles of wine and whisky, much appreciated in the long term, but cruel in the meantime!

I actually think that despite all the huffing and puffing, Brexit will go with a whimper. Little will change, and both the hopes of the Brexiteers and the fears of the Remainers will be turn out to be greatly exagerrated. Indeed, so little will change that people will wonder what the point was. Probably the populists will be the most disappointed as the distressed towns and coast continue to languish in the doldrums.

All the best to you and yours.

People keep asking me when I finish for Christmas. They don't know what to say when I reply Boxing Day....One thing I am looking forward to when I retire in a few years time is being drunk for two weeks solid over the Christmas period!

The weather in Leics looks warm and damp, so lets hope for no ice related mishaps or fires, so we can have some sofa time scoffing Hawaiian Pizzas and watching re-runs of Die Hard.

HYUFD said:

East Germany is also now the heartland of the AfD

Yes that sort of nonsense tends to be negatively correlated to prosperity, doesn't it.

Not always, but usually.

Gatwick has reopened very quickly this time. Suggests to me that the authorities might have nabbed someone or brought the thing down.

Cyclefree said:

So - within minutes of me mentioning the oddness of the drone story, another one reappears over the skies of Gatwick.

Hmm........

We’re keeping a close eye on you now.

kyf_100 said:

kle4 said:

Awb683 said:

If we get a united Ireland after a proper Brexit so be it.

Fair play to you for preferring that, but a lot of the harder Brexiters are seemingly in favour of the UK union, so should be more concerned at its break up.

I think it's pretty logically incoherent for anyone who voted for Brexit to be against a nation wanting the right to self determination, if that nation believes that their rules are made by a distant and disinterested foreign power when they should be made by their own democratically elected governments at home.

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

+1

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

An analogy seemingly designed to upset those in support of the UK.

The analogy is utterly ridiculous.

Brexit does get over-dramatized, though, don't you think?

On both sides, I mean.

Of course it does. It is dramatic of course, I'm not going to pretend people should act like emotionless automatons about it, but even very small things get so overblown.

I'd have no problems with a united Ireland, but as one of my Irish in-laws said once … "Hang on, we don't want those mad, f*cking Orangemen down here bombing Dublin."

I doubt they will, but suspicion remains on both sides.

Anyway, on this busiest night of the year, we're off for a meal. So Happy Christmas to one and all, even you Remainers and even the Greens. But lay off the drones, lads.

kyf_100 said:

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

It's about the design of the constitution, not just size.

kle4 said:

kyf_100 said:

kle4 said:

Awb683 said:

If we get a united Ireland after a proper Brexit so be it.

Fair play to you for preferring that, but a lot of the harder Brexiters are seemingly in favour of the UK union, so should be more concerned at its break up.

I think it's pretty logically incoherent for anyone who voted for Brexit to be against a nation wanting the right to self determination, if that nation believes that their rules are made by a distant and disinterested foreign power when they should be made by their own democratically elected governments at home.

People can believe absolutely that people have the right to self determine, while hoping they self determine to remain in specific unions, or not, there's nothing incoherent about that. If NI wants to unite with ROI, or go Indy, or remain with the UK, I support their right to make any of those choices, even though I'd prefer them to choose the latter.

People are free to make any choice they like, I just don't understand how, say, the Scots could say they are sick of being told what to do by Westminster, but are happy to be told what to do by the EU. The Northern Irish matter is slightly different, but it does feel somewhat frying pan to fire, in terms of how the loyalists will behave if they are suddenly told they have been outvoted 52/48 and they are Irish now.

williamglenn said:

kyf_100 said:

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

It's about the design of the constitution, not just size.

It’s all about the EU’s magnificent constitution? Almost managed to type that without laughing out loud.

ydoethur said:

kyf_100 said:

kle4 said:

Awb683 said:

If we get a united Ireland after a proper Brexit so be it.

Fair play to you for preferring that, but a lot of the harder Brexiters are seemingly in favour of the UK union, so should be more concerned at its break up.

I think it's pretty logically incoherent for anyone who voted for Brexit to be against a nation wanting the right to self determination, if that nation believes that their rules are made by a distant and disinterested foreign power when they should be made by their own democratically elected governments at home.

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

A high proportion of Nat Remainers see Brussels as a brake on London. Ultimately, they would prefer full independence. Malcolm is a good example.

As for Northern Ireland - well, wouldn't you prefer EU membership which gives you access to both Ireland and the mainland UK to the messy uncertainty we're in right now?

Then the Scots are just choosing one master over another which to me is an act of crass stupidity. Picking the EU over Westminster won't lead to their independence. Or have they not noticed how hard it is to escape the icy talons of the EU's grip?

As for Northern Ireland - I imagine there are quite a few who would say never, never, never! to the idea of diverging from mainland UK.

ydoethur said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

kyf_100 said:

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

It's about the design of the constitution, not just size.

It’s all about the EU’s magnificent constitution? Almost managed to type that without laughing out loud.

Theresa May has a magnificent constitution.

It's all that walking she does.

The less we talk about Juncker’s constitution the better!

kyf_100 said:

People are free to make any choice they like, I just don't understand how, say, the Scots could say they are sick of being told what to do by Westminster, but are happy to be told what to do by the EU.

You seem happy to do what Alexander Dugin wants you to do without even being told.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

kyf_100 said:

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

It's about the design of the constitution, not just size.

It’s all about the EU’s magnificent constitution? Almost managed to type that without laughing out loud.

At least the EU's constitution never valued black people at three fifths of a white person.

Our constitution was based on a letter to The Times.

Yes, the colonials are dreadful, aren’t they.

And how else do you propose constitutions operate? Letters to the editor is an eminently sensible approach.

I might write a letter to The Times on abolishing FPTP and that might set a precedent.

kyf_100 said:

kle4 said:

kyf_100 said:

kle4 said:

Awb683 said:

If we get a united Ireland after a proper Brexit so be it.

Fair play to you for preferring that, but a lot of the harder Brexiters are seemingly in favour of the UK union, so should be more concerned at its break up.

I think it's pretty logically incoherent for anyone who voted for Brexit to be against a nation wanting the right to self determination, if that nation believes that their rules are made by a distant and disinterested foreign power when they should be made by their own democratically elected governments at home.

People can believe absolutely that people have the right to self determine, while hoping they self determine to remain in specific unions, or not, there's nothing incoherent about that. If NI wants to unite with ROI, or go Indy, or remain with the UK, I support their right to make any of those choices, even though I'd prefer them to choose the latter.

People are free to make any choice they like, I just don't understand how, say, the Scots could say they are sick of being told what to do by Westminster, but are happy to be told what to do by the EU. The Northern Irish matter is slightly different, but it does feel somewhat frying pan to fire, in terms of how the loyalists will behave if they are suddenly told they have been outvoted 52/48 and they are Irish now.

"I just don't understand how, say, the Scots could say they are sick of being told what to do by Westminster, but are happy to be told what to do by the EU."

Could that be because your characterisation of the situation is plain wrong?

In the case of the EU an independent Scotland would have a federal voice alongside all the other sovereign countries; in the UK, not so much.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

kyf_100 said:

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

It's about the design of the constitution, not just size.

It’s all about the EU’s magnificent constitution? Almost managed to type that without laughing out loud.

At least the EU's constitution never valued black people at three fifths of a white person.

Our constitution was based on a letter to The Times.

Yes, the colonials are dreadful, aren’t they.

And how else do you propose constitutions operate? Letters to the editor is an eminently sensible approach.

I might write a letter to The Times on abolishing FPTP and that might set a precedent.

I’m curious, does The Sun have a letters page?

Not just letters - sometimes they join them up into whole words!

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

kyf_100 said:

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

It's about the design of the constitution, not just size.

It’s all about the EU’s magnificent constitution? Almost managed to type that without laughing out loud.

At least the EU's constitution never valued black people at three fifths of a white person.

Our constitution was based on a letter to The Times.

Yes, the colonials are dreadful, aren’t they.

And how else do you propose constitutions operate? Letters to the editor is an eminently sensible approach.

I might write a letter to The Times on abolishing FPTP and that might set a precedent.

I’m curious, does The Sun have a letters page?

It does.

SandyRentool said:

From earlier discussion -

Found online:

Kordum: Son or Daughter In Laws Father
Kordmuni: Son or Daughter In Laws Mother

https://www.sikhphilosophy.net/threads/punjabi-kinship-terms-who-are-your-relatives.26627/

Amazing but not sure there is a Welsh equivalent

williamglenn said:

kyf_100 said:

People are free to make any choice they like, I just don't understand how, say, the Scots could say they are sick of being told what to do by Westminster, but are happy to be told what to do by the EU.

You seem happy to do what Alexander Dugin wants you to do without even being told.

I value NATO and I value a trading alliance with Europe. I'm not in favour of a federal superstate. I've no more desire to be ruled from Brussels than from Moscow.

Well, LadBaby's the Christmas #1.

I wonder if it's the first #1 video, yet alone #1 Christmas video, to feature breast feeding?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-46647954

kyf_100 said:

ydoethur said:

kyf_100 said:

kle4 said:

Awb683 said:

If we get a united Ireland after a proper Brexit so be it.

Fair play to you for preferring that, but a lot of the harder Brexiters are seemingly in favour of the UK union, so should be more concerned at its break up.

I think it's pretty logically incoherent for anyone who voted for Brexit to be against a nation wanting the right to self determination, if that nation believes that their rules are made by a distant and disinterested foreign power when they should be made by their own democratically elected governments at home.

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

A high proportion of Nat Remainers see Brussels as a brake on London. Ultimately, they would prefer full independence. Malcolm is a good example.

As for Northern Ireland - well, wouldn't you prefer EU membership which gives you access to both Ireland and the mainland UK to the messy uncertainty we're in right now?

Then the Scots are just choosing one master over another which to me is an act of crass stupidity. Picking the EU over Westminster won't lead to their independence. Or have they not noticed how hard it is to escape the icy talons of the EU's grip?

As for Northern Ireland - I imagine there are quite a few who would say never, never, never! to the idea of diverging from mainland UK.

The strength of being in a union is greater for smaller countries, particularly those with hegemonic neighbours, hence the enthusism to join from the old Eastern Bloc. Larger countries need such political support less, except when dealing with superpowers.

Both Irish and Scottish Nationalists campaigned for out in 1975 (as did the Ulster Unionists, despite the Troubles) but both now see the EU as a protector rather than an oppressor. The EU structure on vetos, does give small population countries good international leverage.

kyf_100 said:

williamglenn said:

kyf_100 said:

People are free to make any choice they like, I just don't understand how, say, the Scots could say they are sick of being told what to do by Westminster, but are happy to be told what to do by the EU.

You seem happy to do what Alexander Dugin wants you to do without even being told.

I value NATO and I value a trading alliance with Europe. I'm not in favour of a federal superstate. I've no more desire to be ruled from Brussels than from Moscow.

I think you're letting identity politics cloud your judgment.

Foxy said:

kyf_100 said:

ydoethur said:

kyf_100 said:

kle4 said:

Awb683 said:

If we get a united Ireland after a proper Brexit so be it.

Fair play to you for preferring that, but a lot of the harder Brexiters are seemingly in favour of the UK union, so should be more concerned at its break up.

I think it's pretty logically incoherent for anyone who voted for Brexit to be against a nation wanting the right to self determination, if that nation believes that their rules are made by a distant and disinterested foreign power when they should be made by their own democratically elected governments at home.

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

A high proportion of Nat Remainers see Brussels as a brake on London. Ultimately, they would prefer full independence. Malcolm is a good example.

As for Northern Ireland - well, wouldn't you prefer EU membership which gives you access to both Ireland and the mainland UK to the messy uncertainty we're in right now?

Then the Scots are just choosing one master over another which to me is an act of crass stupidity. Picking the EU over Westminster won't lead to their independence. Or have they not noticed how hard it is to escape the icy talons of the EU's grip?

As for Northern Ireland - I imagine there are quite a few who would say never, never, never! to the idea of diverging from mainland UK.

The strength of being in a union is greater for smaller countries, particularly those with hegemonic neighbours, hence the enthusism to join from the old Eastern Bloc. Larger countries need such political support less, except when dealing with superpowers.

Both Irish and Scottish Nationalists campaigned for out in 1975 (as did the Ulster Unionists, despite the Troubles) but both now see the EU as a protector rather than an oppressor. The EU structure on vetos, does give small population countries good international leverage.

Maybe in the past, but not with QMV.

No surrender

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

kyf_100 said:

ydoethur said:

kyf_100 said:

kle4 said:

Awb683 said:

If we get a united Ireland after a proper Brexit so be it.

Fair play to you for preferring that, but a lot of the harder Brexiters are seemingly in favour of the UK union, so should be more concerned at its break up.

I think it's pretty logically incoherent for anyone who voted for Brexit to be against a nation wanting the right to self determination, if that nation believes that their rules are made by a distant and disinterested foreign power when they should be made by their own democratically elected governments at home.

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

A high proportion of Nat Remainers see Brussels as a brake on London. Ultimately, they would prefer full independence. Malcolm is a good example.

As for Northern Ireland - well, wouldn't you prefer EU membership which gives you access to both Ireland and the mainland UK to the messy uncertainty we're in right now?

Then the Scots are just choosing one master over another which to me is an act of crass stupidity. Picking the EU over Westminster won't lead to their independence. Or have they not noticed how hard it is to escape the icy talons of the EU's grip?

As for Northern Ireland - I imagine there are quite a few who would say never, never, never! to the idea of diverging from mainland UK.

The strength of being in a union is greater for smaller countries, particularly those with hegemonic neighbours, hence the enthusism to join from the old Eastern Bloc. Larger countries need such political support less, except when dealing with superpowers.

Both Irish and Scottish Nationalists campaigned for out in 1975 (as did the Ulster Unionists, despite the Troubles) but both now see the EU as a protector rather than an oppressor. The EU structure on vetos, does give small population countries good international leverage.

Maybe in the past, but not with QMV.

They still have leverage. A50 extension, any post Brexit Trade Deal, and any application to Rejoin are all subject to national veto.

Best not annoy those Celts...

Yes, a rare example of a veto, at risk of going extinct!

AlastairMeeks said:

kyf_100 said:

ydoethur said:

kyf_100 said:

kle4 said:

Awb683 said:

If we get a united Ireland after a proper Brexit so be it.

Fair play to you for preferring that, but a lot of the harder Brexiters are seemingly in favour of the UK union, so should be more concerned at its break up.

I think it's pretty logically incoherent for anyone who voted for Brexit to be against a nation wanting the right to self determination, if that nation believes that their rules are made by a distant and disinterested foreign power when they should be made by their own democratically elected governments at home.

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

A high proportion of Nat Remainers see Brussels as a brake on London. Ultimately, they would prefer full independence. Malcolm is a good example.

As for Northern Ireland - well, wouldn't you prefer EU membership which gives you access to both Ireland and the mainland UK to the messy uncertainty we're in right now?

Then the Scots are just choosing one master over another which to me is an act of crass stupidity. Picking the EU over Westminster won't lead to their independence. Or have they not noticed how hard it is to escape the icy talons of the EU's grip?

As for Northern Ireland - I imagine there are quite a few who would say never, never, never! to the idea of diverging from mainland UK.

This is the type of unhinged nonsense that has led Britain to this mess. Britain is independent. Any attempt to conflate membership of the EU with subjugation is abject idiocy. Britain has, as it has always had, the freedom of a sovereign country.

Scots can entirely rationally seek to leave the UK and remain in the much looser association of the EU.

I define sovereignty as the ability to do whatever you want (in terms of setting laws). The UK is free only in the sense that is free to obey EU law, or leave. A somewhat binary choice, and a rather narrow definition of sovereignty from you.

RobD said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

kyf_100 said:

ydoethur said:

kyf_100 said:

kle4 said:

Awb683 said:

If we get a united Ireland after a proper Brexit so be it.

Fair play to you for preferring that, but a lot of the harder Brexiters are seemingly in favour of the UK union, so should be more concerned at its break up.

I think it's pretty logically incoherent for anyone who voted for Brexit to be against a nation wanting the right to self determination, if that nation believes that their rules are made by a distant and disinterested foreign power when they should be made by their own democratically elected governments at home.

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

A high proportion of Nat Remainers see Brussels as a brake on London. Ultimately, they would prefer full independence. Malcolm is a good example.

As for Northern Ireland - well, wouldn't you prefer EU membership which gives you access to both Ireland and the mainland UK to the messy uncertainty we're in right now?

Then the Scots are just choosing one master over another which to me is an act of crass stupidity. Picking the EU over Westminster won't lead to their independence. Or have they not noticed how hard it is to escape the icy talons of the EU's grip?

As for Northern Ireland - I imagine there are quite a few who would say never, never, never! to the idea of diverging from mainland UK.

The strength of being in a union is .

Maybe in the past, but not with QMV.

They still have leverage. A50 extension, any post Brexit Trade Deal, and any application to Rejoin are all subject to national veto.

Best not annoy those Celts...

Yes, a rare example of a veto, at risk of going extinct!

Important though! Any post Brexit Trade Deal requires unanimity. So if Lithuania doesn't like it, it has a great deal of leverage.

The EU does like consensus, so is institutionally reluctant to force things through over national objections, even on issues formally subject to QMV. It can make for a fairly sluggish response to issues, but does tend to work better in the long run.

Merry Christmas to all PBers!

May your Brexit be soft and your frost hard.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

kyf_100 said:

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

It's about the design of the constitution, not just size.

It’s all about the EU’s magnificent constitution? Almost managed to type that without laughing out loud.

At least the EU's constitution never valued black people at three fifths of a white person.

Our constitution was based on a letter to The Times.

Yes, the colonials are dreadful, aren’t they.

And how else do you propose constitutions operate? Letters to the editor is an eminently sensible approach.

I might write a letter to The Times on abolishing FPTP and that might set a precedent.

I’m curious, does The Sun have a letters page?

It does.

I pity the subeditor who has to make sense of them.

kyf_100 said:

Has there ever been a theory more discredited than Fukuyama's?

The moment I heard of 'the end of history' from a triumphalist, back in the early 90s, I told the person describing it to me that it was complete bollocks. Sometimes I do wonder how so many bright people can miss the blindingly obvious. End of history is about as sensical as end of evolution.

O/T Can anyone summarise for me what going on in the US right now re this mooted shutdown?

Trump is predicatbly blaming the democrats but it doesn't look like the Replican Senate is voting for his $5.7bn Mexican Wall folly atm.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2018/dec/21/trump-government-shutdown-border-wall-latest-live

TheScreamingEagles said:

ralphmalph said:

The_Taxman said:

tlg86 said:

Funnily enough, I was thinking about this earlier today. Suppose we do have another referendum - say next October - and by then the economy is in recession. Do remainers promise to end the recession with a vote to remain in the EU?

A No Deal Brexit would in those circumstances be a secondary shock to a recession hit economy. A No Deal Brexit will wreck the economy, if the UK were in recession then it could well turn into a depression in those circumstances as further demand would be deferred by domestic consumers as well as the external shocks associated with Brexit.

I always ask myself would a no deal brexit be worse than the GFC? Seeing as that Nice Mr Carney tells me that the UK banks have piles of cash to fully support the economy, which they did not in the GFC, then my answer is no it will not.

What caused the GFC shouldn't happen given the capital adequacy requirements and splitting of bank operations.

The GFC wasn't a normal recession, there was no massive increases in interest rates or inflation.

A No Deal recession could see both of those as well as a seizure of the economy.

isn't one of the tools for dealing with recessions to cut interest rates - raising them will hurt more surely?

NickPalmer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

I think you are absolutely right with this - both in terms of those who are Eurosceptic but anti-Independence and those who are pro-Independence but also pro-EU.

Either one agrees with nations being subsumed into larger political unions or one does not.

It depends on one's confidence that the larger union will be on the same wavelength, though. We're in favour of union between Cornwall and Manchester because we think they have basically similar outlooks, even though they feel very different. I'm in favour of union with the EU because I regard them as very similar to us. I'd be against union with Russia or indeed the USA, as they seem significantly different and might well force us to do things we disliked. A Scottish Nationalist who distrusts the English (rightly or wrongly) might feel more comfortable with the EU; conversely, someone who dislikes the EU might feel fine with the English.

These things change over time, of course, so one shouldn't fiddle with it too often.

Very well put.

Does anyone have any experience of being a Citzens Advice Bureau advisor?

I'm thinking of volunteering now I have retired - seem like an interesting way to help others and make a small difference.

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

O/T Can anyone summarise for me what going on in the US right now re this mooted shutdown?

Trump is predicatbly blaming the democrats but it doesn't look like the Replican Senate is voting for his $5.7bn Mexican Wall folly atm.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2018/dec/21/trump-government-shutdown-border-wall-latest-live

My understanding was this was one of those issues they need 60 votes in the Senate to pass, so they'd need Democrat backing unless they want to reduce the threshhold, which would hit them in the long term.

Ah, so it has no chance of passing then. They have clearly dragged senators back to vote, who had departed on holiday:

https://twitter.com/desiderioDC/status/1076203683648622593

Benpointer said:

Does anyone have any experience of being a Citzens Advice Bureau advisor?

I'm thinking of volunteering now I have retired - seem like an interesting way to help others and make a small difference.

No direct experience, but I have heard that most people come along with financial problems.

Benpointer said:

Does anyone have any experience of being a Citzens Advice Bureau advisor?

I'm thinking of volunteering now I have retired - seem like an interesting way to help others and make a small difference.

You have to read up on the welfare state and how a citizen can optimise their benefits or signpost places in terms of bankruptcy for instance. The CAB provide the information, it does take a while unless you were in a job like DWP to become accustomed to the minefield that is the welfare state. It can be personally satisfying but I felt intimidated by the customers as some of them must have dropped out of education early on.

SandyRentool said:

Benpointer said:

Does anyone have any experience of being a Citzens Advice Bureau advisor?

I'm thinking of volunteering now I have retired - seem like an interesting way to help others and make a small difference.

No direct experience, but I have heard that most people come along with financial problems.

As an advisor almost every person you see will have a benefits check to make sure the claimant is optimising the amount of benefits they receive.

You can literally get people coming in about anything in the CAB, I have spoken to advisors who even have medical problems presented to them, the customer of course are promptly advised to seek medical help.

But finance is a key part of CAB activity as can: consumer law, tenancy problems, employment problems you name it!

glw said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/status/1076208542015733760

Trump's going to have a hell of a time filling vacant positions if he rejects anyone who has ever said "Trump's a f*cking idiot".

He just needs to find someone who it cannot be proved they said that.

The_Taxman said:

Benpointer said:

Does anyone have any experience of being a Citzens Advice Bureau advisor?

I'm thinking of volunteering now I have retired - seem like an interesting way to help others and make a small difference.

You have to read up on the welfare state and how a citizen can optimise their benefits or signpost places in terms of bankruptcy for instance. The CAB provide the information, it does take a while unless you were in a job like DWP to become accustomed to the minefield that is the welfare state. It can be personally satisfying but I felt intimidated by the customers as some of them must have dropped out of education early on.

Go for it; rewarding plus you'll also have, virtually always, very supportive colleagues. 'Virtually always' because there's always one!

kle4 said:

glw said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/status/1076208542015733760

Trump's going to have a hell of a time filling vacant positions if he rejects anyone who has ever said "Trump's a f*cking idiot".

He just needs to find someone who it cannot be proved they said that.

Even that is likely to leave few people to choose from. Essentially anyone who was anyone in the GOP/government/media was slating Trump before the nomination. The pool of people who actually respect Trump, as opposed to seeing him as a means to and end, is really tiny.

hamiltonace said:

ralphmalph said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

rpjs said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Mind you the Republic would be so badly damaged by a No Deal Brexit that they couldn't afford to take on the additional burden of Northern Ireland. It really would be a Lose-Lose-Lose-Lose scenario: for the UK, the EU generally, the Republic, and NI.

True, but for similar reasons to why many Brexiteers feel Brexit is worth any price, a lot of Irish people would have a similar attitude.

Plus much of the country would qualify for all that lovely Objective 1 EU funding again!

Who is going to pay that out once the EU loses the U.K. contributions. There is already a budget row between contributor nations and recipient over that.

Brexiteers should be able to understand that it is not just about money. Voting for a result that makes people poorer is far from impossible.

Maybe what NI needs is a good dose of the Celtic tiger economy.

Great - but withthe ROI debt burden, EU regulation increasing and focus on “the project” and a shrinking world economy that seems unlikely.

The Irish economy is growing rapidly:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-forecast-to-record-highest-gdp-growth-in-europe-this-year-1.3562629?mode=amp

It is time the subsidy junkies in the North mended their ways.

Isn’t it mostly down to accounting tricks? Like all those airplanes that are registered in Ireland. Not really adding GDP, but they show up in the books.

And ironically increase Ireland's contribution to the EU's budget.

There is a huge investment in new pharmaceutical plants in Ireland. This is real business not just accounting trick

Thanks to very dubious tax planning

I first understood it when Eli Lilly, a US corporation, bought Imclone Systems, another US company through its Irish sub. I was curious so I asked a friend of mine on the executive committee.

The answer was extraordinary and perturbing

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Twelve, ha. I would've gone for Northumbria, or Greater Yorkshire, but there we are.

What about Greater Bernica?

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1076204878228320257

Trump's major constribution during his term will be the debasement of "Wow......"

Benpointer said:

Does anyone have any experience of being a Citzens Advice Bureau advisor?

I'm thinking of volunteering now I have retired - seem like an interesting way to help others and make a small difference.

I have a relative who does. Rewarding, often eye-opening, real opportunity to help people who basically don’t know their way around The System. She’s done it for years and remains keen.

On the flipside, I get the impression CAB want it done their way (ie follow the flowchart rather than innovate). Reasonable enough, given the range of skills volunteers have and issues brought to them, but possibly frustrating if you’re used to senior-level problem solving. And as with any such organisation there can be, shall we say, differences of focus - between trustees/paid staff/volunteers and between the local organisations and national HQ. There seems to be a hybrid of national and local support contracts, funding (always tight) and reporting lines which can cause issues - ie local authorities supporting a branch to deal with X while national CAB deals with DWP over Y - which group do they prioritise?

But despite the relative lengths of my pro and con paragraphs, I’m sure it’s generally a force for much good and volunteering is to be commended.

AlastairMeeks said:

kyf_100 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

kyf_100 said:

ydoethur said:

kyf_100 said:

kle4 said:

Awb683 said:

If we get a united Ireland after a proper Brexit so be it.

Fair play to you for preferring that, but a lot of the harder Brexiters are seemingly in favour of the UK union, so should be more concerned at its break up.

I think it's pretty logically incoherent for anyone who voted for Brexit to be against a nation wanting the right to self determination, if that nation believes that their rules are made by a distant and disinterested foreign power when they should be made by their own democratically elected governments at home.

For the same reason I find it odd that the Scots / Northern Irish would say "we hate being ruled from London, but rock up Brussels, come park your tanks (or bureaucrats) on our lawn."

A high proportion of Nat Remainers see Brussels as a brake on London. Ultimately, they would prefer full independence. Malcolm is a good example.

As for Northern Ireland - well, wouldn't you prefer EU membership which gives you access to both Ireland and the mainland UK to the messy uncertainty we're in right now?

Then the Scots are just choosing one master over another which to me is an act of crass stupidity. Picking the EU over Westminster won't lead to their independence. Or have they not noticed how hard it is to escape the icy talons of the EU's grip?

As for Northern Ireland - I imagine there are quite a few who would say never, never, never! to the idea of diverging from mainland UK.

This is the type of unhinged nonsense that has led Britain to this mess. Britain is independent. Any attempt to conflate membership of the EU with subjugation is abject idiocy. Britain has, as it has always had, the freedom of a sovereign country.

Scots can entirely rationally seek to leave the UK and remain in the much looser association of the EU.

I define sovereignty as the ability to do whatever you want (in terms of setting laws). The UK is free only in the sense that is free to obey EU law, or leave. A somewhat binary choice, and a rather narrow definition of sovereignty from you.

There are many constraints on countries making laws. But you fixate on the EU. Your definition has no logic at all. It’s just founded on an obsessive hatred of the EU.

There is no other organisation I can think of, of which we are a member, that can impose new laws on our country which we do not have the right to veto. Not NATO, not the UN, not the IMF or any other of those organisations often cited as comparable.

Harris_Tweed said:

Benpointer said:

Does anyone have any experience of being a Citzens Advice Bureau advisor?

I'm thinking of volunteering now I have retired - seem like an interesting way to help others and make a small difference.

I have a relative who does. Rewarding, often eye-opening, real opportunity to help people who basically don’t know their way around The System. She’s done it for years and remains keen.

On the flipside, I get the impression CAB want it done their way (ie follow the flowchart rather than innovate). Reasonable enough, given the range of skills volunteers have and issues brought to them, but possibly frustrating if you’re used to senior-level problem solving. And as with any such organisation there can be, shall we say, differences of focus - between trustees/paid staff/volunteers and between the local organisations and national HQ. There seems to be a hybrid of national and local support contracts, funding (always tight) and reporting lines which can cause issues - ie local authorities supporting a branch to deal with X while national CAB deals with DWP over Y - which group do they prioritise?

But despite the relative lengths of my pro and con paragraphs, I’m sure it’s generally a force for much good and volunteering is to be commended.

I think that's a fair summary. I only got involved with them from the other end, when I was a councillor, as we provided a lot of the funding. A lot of the problems that will come your way are insoluable - people about to be evicted who don't have any rights, people in deep debt, or people losing benefits because of how the system works. So there's a lot of potential frustration and sadness you can't do much to help. On the other hand when there is a solution or when someone simply needs help to unlock a door, it is very rewarding.