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Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.Tissue_Price said:
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.david_herdson said:Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
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Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:0 -
Yes, a bit of shorthand from me there. My assumption is that a 2nd ref means a binary deal vs remain (cannot conceive of another formulation being approved) and that the result of such takes its name from David Brent's touring band. Remain*.david_herdson said:Remember that '2nd Ref' is not a Brexit outcome; it's a Brexit mechanism. There's no such thing as Deal vs Ref, the true option is certainty of Deal vs (one of various options delivered via an uncertain and uncontrollable referendum).
* Band is not called Remain, that's the result of the ref.0 -
Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.0
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Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?Pulpstar said:Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
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The simplistic stupidity of the average leaver is summed up by this postrottenborough said:
Oh FFS.justin124 said:How long were the queues at Dover back in 1972 before we joined the EEC?
Trade, modern supply chains, new technology etc etc etc Transformed out of all sight compared to 1972.0 -
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Be thankful for small mercies. At least he said 1972 and not 1792.Nigel_Foremain said:
The simplistic stupidity of the average leaver is summed up by this postrottenborough said:
Oh FFS.justin124 said:How long were the queues at Dover back in 1972 before we joined the EEC?
Trade, modern supply chains, new technology etc etc etc Transformed out of all sight compared to 1972.0 -
Using the word "think" suggests it is merely an opinion...AlastairMeeks said:
And at least half the population think that the hardcore Leavers are demented.OldKingCole said:
We haven't got an Empire we can call on for help now.MarqueeMark said:
Until plucky little Britain triumphs again.Beverley_C said:
It is things like this that make me want No Deal Brexit. Queues of lorries, high unemployment and everything completely FUBAR'd, because it seems to be the only way we will ever be free of this Plucky Little Britain Triumphs Again bullsh*t.CarlottaVance said:Again apols if posted before - Another good thread - the 'Tinkerbell theory of Brexit':
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1074634063322013696
All countries have their 'myths' ours of "stood alone"(with a quarter of the planet)is no substitute for rational analysis
Basically, wallowing in nostalgia is no way to improve the future.
It's what we do.0 -
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:0 -
LDs winning most seats is probably no less likely than Trump becoming POTUS tbf.david_herdson said:
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.Tissue_Price said:
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.david_herdson said:Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
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Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government.Benpointer said:
Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?Pulpstar said:Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...0 -
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That is too simplistic but then you are in awe of the EUFoxy said:
Nothing like the pressure here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is everyone's problem including the EU who will have failed completely. The pressure on governments across the EU will be colossalFoxy said:
Probably, but that is not our problem.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea portsFoxy said:
Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...TheScreamingEagles said:
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire
After all, Brexit was our choice not theirs.0 -
It was actually a question rather than a statement - ie a request for information!Nigel_Foremain said:
The simplistic stupidity of the average leaver is summed up by this postrottenborough said:
Oh FFS.justin124 said:How long were the queues at Dover back in 1972 before we joined the EEC?
Trade, modern supply chains, new technology etc etc etc Transformed out of all sight compared to 1972.0 -
Looks like seven Tories are going to commit the ultimate hari-kari move after the MV and force a General Election.0
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Only the madly deluded could think there is anything positive about this situation. You are Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf and I claim my £5Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed because we see a positive out of this. They don't.Foxy said:
Nothing like the pressure here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is everyone's problem including the EU who will have failed completely. The pressure on governments across the EU will be colossalFoxy said:
Probably, but that is not our problem.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea portsFoxy said:
Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...TheScreamingEagles said:
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire
After all, Brexit was our choice not theirs.0 -
I reckon that’s at least one Tory MP who will VONC his own government over No Deal Brexit.0
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Source? Who would do that?Pulpstar said:Looks like seven Tories are going to commit the ultimate hari-kari move after the MV and force a General Election.
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Yes, Brexit (whether Deal or No Deal) seen as a joint Conservative-Corbyn enterprise, new leader, perhaps a recession, and defections, perhaps from both sides.david_herdson said:
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.Tissue_Price said:
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.david_herdson said:Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
One potential risk is that a further step might be a rebrand and re-naming of the party. Though I'd still be arguing to get paid if it was the same legal entity.0 -
May wins, DUP no confidence her, May loses, her own side no confidence her.0
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You are being too kind.AlastairMeeks said:
And at least half the population think that the hardcore Leavers are demented.OldKingCole said:
We haven't got an Empire we can call on for help now.MarqueeMark said:
Until plucky little Britain triumphs again.Beverley_C said:
It is things like this that make me want No Deal Brexit. Queues of lorries, high unemployment and everything completely FUBAR'd, because it seems to be the only way we will ever be free of this Plucky Little Britain Triumphs Again bullsh*t.CarlottaVance said:Again apols if posted before - Another good thread - the 'Tinkerbell theory of Brexit':
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1074634063322013696
All countries have their 'myths' ours of "stood alone"(with a quarter of the planet)is no substitute for rational analysis
Basically, wallowing in nostalgia is no way to improve the future.
It's what we do.
The government has taken leave of its senses.
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And 10 DUPers who will do it over Deal.TheScreamingEagles said:I reckon that’s at least one Tory MP who will VONC his own government over No Deal Brexit.
Looks like the end of the line either way.
Edit: Dan beat me to it!0 -
Tesco chairman on R4 saying how Tesco will stockpile food ahead of March.
Billions and billions of pounds of stock.0 -
I'm extrapolating from Nick Boles' tweet and note he is not amongst the 19 remainers on yesterday's list.Philip_Thompson said:
Source? Who would do that?Pulpstar said:Looks like seven Tories are going to commit the ultimate hari-kari move after the MV and force a General Election.
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The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.MarqueeMark said:
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.Benpointer said:
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.SeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.0 -
Indeed. He can just keep rejecting both the deal and the People's Vote campaigners arguing Tories will trigger an election. He has nothing to lose.Pulpstar said:
Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government.Benpointer said:
Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?Pulpstar said:Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...0 -
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.0 -
Truly astonishing a country is acting as if it’s about to go to war and it’s peacetime !
And apparently now Leavers voted for no deal ! The ERG and the no deal nutjobs in the cabinet are utterly loathsome and are playing with people’s livelihoods over their pathetic ideology .0 -
I assume if seven Tories (Might be more, no point in it being less) do take this ultimate step it'll be instant deselection for them in any subsequent GE..0
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Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.Pulpstar said:Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
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Time to give this another outing:Black_Rook said:
The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.MarqueeMark said:
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.Benpointer said:
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.SeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwM9t8AFVVc
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As the polling shows if Labour refuses to back EUref2 before Brexit Day, the LDs could see an SDP 1983 style surge leading to a similar general election0
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Well yes he was, but he can do so with less to worry about now.Benpointer said:
Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?Pulpstar said:Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
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Sarah Wollaston looks likely toTheScreamingEagles said:I reckon that’s at least one Tory MP who will VONC his own government over No Deal Brexit.
https://mobile.twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1074706292080545792
Nick Boles has also just said he would resign the Tory whip to vote to stop No Deal at all costs
https://mobile.twitter.com/NickBoles/status/10750697098408017930 -
Some things transcend politics. He is doing the right thing, Boles. I was trying to drum similar sense into you earlier but you came back with some dreary waffle about the Dark Side.Pulpstar said:Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Shape up man!0 -
So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:Benpointer said:
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
May’s deal
No deal
Remain.
If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.0 -
If everyone who supports no deal voted for the deal it still would not pass the Commons. They are a big part of why it won't pass, and obviously are trying to arrange no deal rather than those who just accidentally keep it open as an option, but they are not the only ones keeping that scenario alive.nico67 said:Truly astonishing a country is acting as if it’s about to go to war and it’s peacetime !
And apparently now Leavers voted for no deal ! The ERG and the no deal nutjobs in the cabinet are utterly loathsome and are playing with people’s livelihoods over their pathetic ideology .0 -
It also piles more pressure on Labour to explain how they will avoid 'no deal'. There are only two outcomes that do so.Pulpstar said:Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government.
Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...0 -
The most likely way this will move forward is when the meaningful vote goes to the HOC and the amendments are voted on first. Grieve's stops no deal in its tracks but the interesting vote will be on accepting the deal subject to a referendumBenpointer said:
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
So many see TM snookered but do not underestimate her ability to survive0 -
The simple fact that it was Cameron who called the Referendum is likely to mean that the Tories end up owning this debacle.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, Brexit (whether Deal or No Deal) seen as a joint Conservative-Corbyn enterprise, new leader, perhaps a recession, and defections, perhaps from both sides.david_herdson said:
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.Tissue_Price said:
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.david_herdson said:Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
One potential risk is that a further step might be a rebrand and re-naming of the party. Though I'd still be arguing to get paid if it was the same legal entity.0 -
Soubry, Boles, Wollaston, Grieve, Hammond (S), Johnson (J) and Allen.HYUFD said:
Sarah Wollaston looks likely toTheScreamingEagles said:I reckon that’s at least one Tory MP who will VONC his own government over No Deal Brexit.
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Except you have those who want no deal, those who want unicorns, and those who want Remain outnumbering them. It's how the unicorn believers break which is key, and they will probably break for remain and whatever method can accomplish that.RoyalBlue said:
So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:Benpointer said:
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
May’s deal
No deal
Remain.
If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.0 -
Morgan, Wollaston, Greening are other strong candidates. Greening could probably stand as a Pro European Conservative in her seat, and win.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:0 -
The problem with that is that I am not sure the government needs to submit a "No deal" bill do they? They simply allow A50 to take it's course over the cliff-edge. The only thing parliament could do to stop it is a VONC in the government.. I think. Anyone have a different view?Benpointer said:
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.0 -
(Near) certainties in British politics:david_herdson said:
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.Tissue_Price said:
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.david_herdson said:Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal
2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held
Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.
But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.
I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?0 -
IndeedNigel_Foremain said:
Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.Pulpstar said:Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
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RobD said:
I think that goes without saying.Pulpstar said:I assume if seven Tories (Might be more, no point in it being less) do take this ultimate step it'll be instant deselection for them in any subsequent GE..
They probably couldn’t give a shit. The sensible world of business will welcome them as heroes.0 -
May should then fight a general election on her Deal, given the pathetic Corbyn has no alternative bar petty politics and is still trailing the Tories in many polls she might even winPhilip_Thompson said:
Indeed. He can just keep rejecting both the deal and the People's Vote campaigners arguing Tories will trigger an election. He has nothing to lose.Pulpstar said:
Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government.Benpointer said:
Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?Pulpstar said:Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...0 -
YesPulpstar said:I assume if seven Tories (Might be more, no point in it being less) do take this ultimate step it'll be instant deselection for them in any subsequent GE..
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I don't think Ken Clark would ever no confidence a Conservative Gov't actually.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:0 -
You really are a prejudiced prickBlack_Rook said:
The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.MarqueeMark said:
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.Benpointer said:
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.SeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.0 -
Not if there was an official Tory candidate also standing.Anazina said:
Morgan, Wollaston, Greening are other strong candidates. Greening could probably stand as a Pro European Conservative in her seat, and win.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:0 -
Erm, no she couldn’t.Anazina said:
Morgan, Wollaston, Greening are other strong candidates. Greening could probably stand as a Pro European Conservative in her seat, and win.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:
The minority of people who voted Leave in her constituency will have disproportionately voted for her. This is an inconvenient truth which many Europhile Tory MPs struggle with.0 -
You suggest this, but there's no way the Tories could line up in a GE behind a policy of backing the deal. You'd get 100 current Tory MPs refusing to do so for a start.HYUFD said:
May should then fight a general election on her Deal, given the pathetic Corbyn has no alternative bar petty politics and is still trailing the Tories in many polls she might even winPhilip_Thompson said:
Indeed. He can just keep rejecting both the deal and the People's Vote campaigners arguing Tories will trigger an election. He has nothing to lose.Pulpstar said:
Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government.Benpointer said:
Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?Pulpstar said:Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...0 -
Neither, Hunt not only polls abysmally but has shifted from backing Remain to No Deal in barely 5 minutesTheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Hunt is a PM in waiting with the touch of the common man and woman.
https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1075069498921750528?s=21
The only question is does he become Tory leader/PM in a coronation or landslide.0 -
It takes a very unusual politician to defect. Many of them have most of their friendship/personal support groups made up of activists and others who support their parties. I would love to see a complete realignment, but of what I know about professional politicians I think it is sadly very unlikleyBlack_Rook said:
(Near) certainties in British politics:david_herdson said:
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.Tissue_Price said:
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.david_herdson said:Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal
2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held
Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.
But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.
I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?0 -
Precisely. So the government is now ramping up panic, spending untold billions and forcing business to do the same, on an outcome most of the government believes would be disastrous and in any case will not be accepted by Parliament under any circumstances.Benpointer said:
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.0 -
Good to see you are not demeaning yourself, given your high standards.Anazina said:
You really are a prejudiced prickBlack_Rook said:
The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.MarqueeMark said:
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.Benpointer said:
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.SeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.0 -
Big Tory Maj if the country goes to the polls I reckon
. They'll swallow the leave vote whole if they go for no deal. 0 -
If MPs want a better deal they should give Starmer a crack at negotiating one.RoyalBlue said:
So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:Benpointer said:
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
May’s deal
No deal
Remain.
If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.0 -
Depends what you mean by the SNP doing'well'. I doubt they will poll better than circa 33% next time.Black_Rook said:
(Near) certainties in British politics:david_herdson said:
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.Tissue_Price said:
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.david_herdson said:Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal
2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held
Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.
But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.
I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?0 -
It is May who is playing chicken with the country’s future, by closing off all options other than her wretched deal. And why? To prove that she’s right. Neither she nor Corbyn are putting the country’s interests first.Big_G_NorthWales said:
IndeedNigel_Foremain said:
Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.Pulpstar said:Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
0 -
So we can now count our adipose fat tissues as a way of coping with Brexit? It is all beginning to make sense.Black_Rook said:
The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.MarqueeMark said:
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.Benpointer said:
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.SeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.0 -
Where would 'no deal' leave the DUP?Black_Rook said:(Near) certainties in British politics:
1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal
0 -
Worth a try. Let him and Labour negotiate something, then give MPs the choice which to back. If Labour's wins they get their election.SandyRentool said:
If MPs want a better deal they should give Starmer a crack at negotiating one.RoyalBlue said:
So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:Benpointer said:
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
May’s deal
No deal
Remain.
If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.0 -
As has been pointed out several times, a referendum cannot be legislated via an amendment.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The most likely way this will move forward is when the meaningful vote goes to the HOC and the amendments are voted on first. Grieve's stops no deal in its tracks but the interesting vote will be on accepting the deal subject to a referendumBenpointer said:
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
So many see TM snookered but do not underestimate her ability to survive
Its as Pie in the Sky as the wacky 'promise Labour a GE in return for their votes'. A general election is not in the gift of the Govt any more.0 -
Yes, he has as much political integrity as Boris Johnson, but without the apparent charisma and wondering sexual appetites ( the latter as far as we know).HYUFD said:
Neither, Hunt not only polls abysmally but has shifted from backing Remain to No Deal in barely 5 minutesTheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Hunt is a PM in waiting with the touch of the common man and woman.
https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1075069498921750528?s=21
The only question is does he become Tory leader/PM in a coronation or landslide.0 -
Eat drink and be merry for tomorrow we Brexit.0
-
A referendum can't be legislated via an amendment, but it can be mandated by one.Mortimer said:
As has been pointed out several times, a referendum cannot be legislated via an amendment.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The most likely way this will move forward is when the meaningful vote goes to the HOC and the amendments are voted on first. Grieve's stops no deal in its tracks but the interesting vote will be on accepting the deal subject to a referendumBenpointer said:
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
So many see TM snookered but do not underestimate her ability to survive
Its as Pie in the Sky as the wacky 'promise Labour a GE in return for their votes'. A general election is not in the gift of the Govt any more.0 -
She hasn't closed off any options. MPs have the ability to remove her anytime they want and we are assured parliament at least has a majority against what she wants so that should not be hard. People moaning she won't do what they want is one of the least convincing outrages out there at the moment, a figleaf, and I think she's doing both a bad job and should do other things.Cyclefree said:
It is May who is playing chicken with the country’s future, by closing off all options other than her wretched deal. And why? To prove that she’s right. Neither she nor Corbyn are putting the country’s interests first.Big_G_NorthWales said:
IndeedNigel_Foremain said:
Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.Pulpstar said:Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
0 -
Jeremy Hunt: Greater love hath no man than he lay down his principles for his careerNigel_Foremain said:
Yes, he has as much political integrity as Boris Johnson, but without the apparent charisma and wondering sexual appetites ( the latter as far as we know).HYUFD said:
Neither, Hunt not only polls abysmally but has shifted from backing Remain to No Deal in barely 5 minutesTheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Hunt is a PM in waiting with the touch of the common man and woman.
https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1075069498921750528?s=21
The only question is does he become Tory leader/PM in a coronation or landslide.0 -
Well some 25 Labour MPs did precisely that in 1981/82 - as did one Tory.Nigel_Foremain said:
It takes a very unusual politician to defect. Many of them have most of their friendship/personal support groups made up of activists and others who support their parties. I would love to see a complete realignment, but of what I know about professional politicians I think it is sadly very unlikleyBlack_Rook said:
(Near) certainties in British politics:david_herdson said:
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.Tissue_Price said:
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.david_herdson said:Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal
2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held
Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.
But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.
I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?0 -
No, May has produced a Deal after much work, the pathetic Corbyn refuses to back it though his own policy is indistinguishable. If we go to No Deal it will be the fault of Corbyn, the DUP and ERGgrabcocque said:
I think it clear that Parliament will, under no circumstances, give in to such pathetic blackmail.RobD said:
Toward no deal being the only viable alternative, increasing the likelihood of hers being signed?grabcocque said:I just want to reiterate:
THERESA MAY IS ACTIVELY PIVOTING TOWARDS NO DEAL.
The Prime Minister has lost her fucking mind.
If we go over the cliff edge, it is because Mrs May chooses to let us. And May is basically giving Corbyn his dream outcome...
Go ahead, Theresa. DO IT, I double dare you.0 -
Project Fear's predictions are obviously ridiculous.stodge said:Afternoon all
Another day, another instalment of Project Fear and watch how frightened everyone gets as soon as the Army gets mentioned.
Calculated nonsense aimed at panicking frightened people into signing up to May's Deal. All she and her allies have now is fear and they are hoping a couple of weeks of this propaganda will do the job.
There's nothing that can't be arranged or sorted in plenty of time (and would have been if this group of dullards had considered the most elementary contingency planning).
No one is going to starve, run out of medicines or be stopped from going anywhere. A great man once said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Nowadays, the only weapon a bad politician has is fear.
As you say, food and medicines will still make their way to the United Kingdom, and people will not starve.
But by attacking only the most extreme of Project Fear's prognostications, there is a tendency to pretend that there will be no ill effects whatsoever from crashing out.
Now, there is a genuine debate to be had about whether the costs of a sudden separation are worth the benefits. But I'm not seeing that debate. I'm seeing two sides: one which pretends there are no consequences from crashing out, and one which forecasts armageddon. That's not a healthy debate, and it's not conducive to good policy making.0 -
"No Deal" doesn't need to become government policy to happen.HYUFD said:
Sarah Wollaston looks likely toTheScreamingEagles said:I reckon that’s at least one Tory MP who will VONC his own government over No Deal Brexit.
https://mobile.twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1074706292080545792
Nick Boles has also just said he would resign the Tory whip to vote to stop No Deal at all costs
https://mobile.twitter.com/NickBoles/status/10750697098408017930 -
We had that debate in 2016, your side won.rcs1000 said:
Project Fear's predictions are obviously ridiculous.stodge said:Afternoon all
Another day, another instalment of Project Fear and watch how frightened everyone gets as soon as the Army gets mentioned.
Calculated nonsense aimed at panicking frightened people into signing up to May's Deal. All she and her allies have now is fear and they are hoping a couple of weeks of this propaganda will do the job.
There's nothing that can't be arranged or sorted in plenty of time (and would have been if this group of dullards had considered the most elementary contingency planning).
No one is going to starve, run out of medicines or be stopped from going anywhere. A great man once said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Nowadays, the only weapon a bad politician has is fear.
As you say, food and medicines will still make their way to the United Kingdom, and people will not starve.
But by attacking only the most extreme of Project Fear's prognostications, there is a tendency to pretend that there will be no ill effects whatsoever from crashing out.
Now, there is a genuine debate to be had about whether the costs of a sudden separation are worth the benefits. But I'm not seeing that debate. I'm seeing two sides: one which pretends there are no consequences from crashing out, and one which forecasts armageddon. That's not a healthy debate, and it's not conducive to good policy making.0 -
A long long time ago, and the contortions individuals have undertaken to avoid doing the same since shows just how unlikely it is now.justin124 said:
Well some 25 Labour MPs did precisely that in 1981/82 - as did one Tory.Nigel_Foremain said:
It takes a very unusual politician to defect. Many of them have most of their friendship/personal support groups made up of activists and others who support their parties. I would love to see a complete realignment, but of what I know about professional politicians I think it is sadly very unlikleyBlack_Rook said:
(Near) certainties in British politics:david_herdson said:
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.Tissue_Price said:
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.david_herdson said:Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal
2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held
Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.
But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.
I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?0 -
The only price being that we put a man who hates his own country into 10 Downing Street?SandyRentool said:
If MPs want a better deal they should give Starmer a crack at negotiating one.RoyalBlue said:
So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:Benpointer said:
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.DanSmith said:
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.tottenhamWC said:
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.rottenborough said:
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
May’s deal
No deal
Remain.
If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.
No thanks.0 -
Also, I think it's fair to say, WWII wasn't entirely self-inflicted.Scott_P said:
Anyone who says "we have been through worse" without fail means "someone else went through worse"SeanT said:
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz.
Yes, and they were bloody miserable...
Sometimes I wonder whether we like sometimes to suffer.0 -
Not to mention May would witter on about her deal, while Corbyn would talk about everything other than Brexit.kle4 said:
You suggest this, but there's no way the Tories could line up in a GE behind a policy of backing the deal. You'd get 100 current Tory MPs refusing to do so for a start.HYUFD said:
May should then fight a general election on her Deal, given the pathetic Corbyn has no alternative bar petty politics and is still trailing the Tories in many polls she might even winPhilip_Thompson said:
APulpstar said:
Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government.Benpointer said:
Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?Pulpstar said:Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...
Indeed. He can just keep rejecting both the deal and the People's Vote campaigners arguing Tories will trigger an election. He has nothing to lose.
So, like last time. Only this time, many, many Tory PPCs will be on record saying what a poor deal they are campaigning for.0 -
I don't remember this, fascinating outcome
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/10750803175249551390 -
At least Boris backed Leave before the referendum, unlike Hunt who seems to be a 'Born Again' Hard Brexiteer No Dealer despite backing Remain in 2016Nigel_Foremain said:
Yes, he has as much political integrity as Boris Johnson, but without the apparent charisma and wondering sexual appetites ( the latter as far as we know).HYUFD said:
Neither, Hunt not only polls abysmally but has shifted from backing Remain to No Deal in barely 5 minutesTheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Hunt is a PM in waiting with the touch of the common man and woman.
https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1075069498921750528?s=21
The only question is does he become Tory leader/PM in a coronation or landslide.0 -
I KNEW those that VONCed May and those that did not in the recent election would flip their positions !!!williamglenn said:0 -
Britannia Hospital ?TheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Hunt is a PM in waiting with the touch of the common man and woman.
https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1075069498921750528?s=21
...
0 -
F
She can’t get her deal through. The EU says the negotiations are done.kle4 said:
She hasn't closed off any options. MPs have the ability to remove her anytime they want and we are assured parliament at least has a majority against what she wants so that should not be hard. People moaning she won't do what they want is one of the least convincing outrages out there at the moment, a figleaf, and I think she's doing both a bad job and should do other things.Cyclefree said:
It is May who is playing chicken with the country’s future, by closing off all options other than her wretched deal. And why? To prove that she’s right. Neither she nor Corbyn are putting the country’s interests first.Big_G_NorthWales said:
IndeedNigel_Foremain said:
Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.Pulpstar said:Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
She has ruled out revocation and a further referendum.
Yes - I’d say she’s closing off options.
She has put her survival and that of her deal above all other considerations. That is not the mark of a politician acting in the country’s interests.0 -
No but if enough Tory MPs VONC the government as tonight seems possible there will a general election and the voters will decide if they wish to proceed with No Deal or notDonny43 said:
"No Deal" doesn't need to become government policy to happen.HYUFD said:
Sarah Wollaston looks likely toTheScreamingEagles said:I reckon that’s at least one Tory MP who will VONC his own government over No Deal Brexit.
https://mobile.twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1074706292080545792
Nick Boles has also just said he would resign the Tory whip to vote to stop No Deal at all costs
https://mobile.twitter.com/NickBoles/status/10750697098408017930 -
Methinks I will regret having lost 4 stone this year...Recidivist said:
So we can now count our adipose fat tissues as a way of coping with Brexit? It is all beginning to make sense.Black_Rook said:
The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.MarqueeMark said:
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.Benpointer said:
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.SeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.0 -
So are we supposed to believe that as the cliff edge approaches, businesses are screaming blue murder and supermarkets are besieged by panic buyers the government is going to tell parliament to FO and push the country over the edge?TheScreamingEagles said:
Such a course might be legally acceptable but it is not politically possible.0 -
To be fair you could probably add some Labour MPS, a fair few Tory MPs and some of the Tory Cabinet including people like Gove.Pulpstar said:
i) Lady Hermon, Caroline Flint, Stephen Lloyd, Ken Clarke & the SDLP0 -
If we go to No Deal Scotland could be independent by next timejustin124 said:
Depends what you mean by the SNP doing'well'. I doubt they will poll better than circa 33% next time.Black_Rook said:
(Near) certainties in British politics:david_herdson said:
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.Tissue_Price said:
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.david_herdson said:Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal
2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held
Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.
But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.
I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?0
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