Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
Remember that '2nd Ref' is not a Brexit outcome; it's a Brexit mechanism. There's no such thing as Deal vs Ref, the true option is certainty of Deal vs (one of various options delivered via an uncertain and uncontrollable referendum).
Yes, a bit of shorthand from me there. My assumption is that a 2nd ref means a binary deal vs remain (cannot conceive of another formulation being approved) and that the result of such takes its name from David Brent's touring band. Remain*.
* Band is not called Remain, that's the result of the ref.
All countries have their 'myths' ours of "stood alone" (with a quarter of the planet) is no substitute for rational analysis
It is things like this that make me want No Deal Brexit. Queues of lorries, high unemployment and everything completely FUBAR'd, because it seems to be the only way we will ever be free of this Plucky Little Britain Triumphs Again bullsh*t.
Basically, wallowing in nostalgia is no way to improve the future.
Until plucky little Britain triumphs again.
It's what we do.
We haven't got an Empire we can call on for help now.
And at least half the population think that the hardcore Leavers are demented.
Using the word "think" suggests it is merely an opinion...
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
LDs winning most seats is probably no less likely than Trump becoming POTUS tbf.
Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?
Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government. Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent me
Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...
And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea ports
The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire
Probably, but that is not our problem.
It is everyone's problem including the EU who will have failed completely. The pressure on governments across the EU will be colossal
Nothing like the pressure here.
After all, Brexit was our choice not theirs.
That is too simplistic but then you are in awe of the EU
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent me
Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...
And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea ports
The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire
Probably, but that is not our problem.
It is everyone's problem including the EU who will have failed completely. The pressure on governments across the EU will be colossal
Nothing like the pressure here.
After all, Brexit was our choice not theirs.
Indeed because we see a positive out of this. They don't.
Only the madly deluded could think there is anything positive about this situation. You are Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf and I claim my £5
Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
Yes, Brexit (whether Deal or No Deal) seen as a joint Conservative-Corbyn enterprise, new leader, perhaps a recession, and defections, perhaps from both sides.
One potential risk is that a further step might be a rebrand and re-naming of the party. Though I'd still be arguing to get paid if it was the same legal entity.
All countries have their 'myths' ours of "stood alone" (with a quarter of the planet) is no substitute for rational analysis
It is things like this that make me want No Deal Brexit. Queues of lorries, high unemployment and everything completely FUBAR'd, because it seems to be the only way we will ever be free of this Plucky Little Britain Triumphs Again bullsh*t.
Basically, wallowing in nostalgia is no way to improve the future.
Until plucky little Britain triumphs again.
It's what we do.
We haven't got an Empire we can call on for help now.
And at least half the population think that the hardcore Leavers are demented.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.
But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.
Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?
Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government. Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...
Indeed. He can just keep rejecting both the deal and the People's Vote campaigners arguing Tories will trigger an election. He has nothing to lose.
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
Truly astonishing a country is acting as if it’s about to go to war and it’s peacetime !
And apparently now Leavers voted for no deal ! The ERG and the no deal nutjobs in the cabinet are utterly loathsome and are playing with people’s livelihoods over their pathetic ideology .
I assume if seven Tories (Might be more, no point in it being less) do take this ultimate step it'll be instant deselection for them in any subsequent GE..
Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.
But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.
As the polling shows if Labour refuses to back EUref2 before Brexit Day, the LDs could see an SDP 1983 style surge leading to a similar general election
I assume if seven Tories (Might be more, no point in it being less) do take this ultimate step it'll be instant deselection for them in any subsequent GE..
Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Some things transcend politics. He is doing the right thing, Boles. I was trying to drum similar sense into you earlier but you came back with some dreary waffle about the Dark Side.
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:
May’s deal
No deal
Remain.
If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.
Truly astonishing a country is acting as if it’s about to go to war and it’s peacetime !
And apparently now Leavers voted for no deal ! The ERG and the no deal nutjobs in the cabinet are utterly loathsome and are playing with people’s livelihoods over their pathetic ideology .
If everyone who supports no deal voted for the deal it still would not pass the Commons. They are a big part of why it won't pass, and obviously are trying to arrange no deal rather than those who just accidentally keep it open as an option, but they are not the only ones keeping that scenario alive.
Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government. Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...
It also piles more pressure on Labour to explain how they will avoid 'no deal'. There are only two outcomes that do so.
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
The most likely way this will move forward is when the meaningful vote goes to the HOC and the amendments are voted on first. Grieve's stops no deal in its tracks but the interesting vote will be on accepting the deal subject to a referendum
So many see TM snookered but do not underestimate her ability to survive
Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
Yes, Brexit (whether Deal or No Deal) seen as a joint Conservative-Corbyn enterprise, new leader, perhaps a recession, and defections, perhaps from both sides.
One potential risk is that a further step might be a rebrand and re-naming of the party. Though I'd still be arguing to get paid if it was the same legal entity.
The simple fact that it was Cameron who called the Referendum is likely to mean that the Tories end up owning this debacle.
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:
May’s deal
No deal
Remain.
If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.
Except you have those who want no deal, those who want unicorns, and those who want Remain outnumbering them. It's how the unicorn believers break which is key, and they will probably break for remain and whatever method can accomplish that.
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
Morgan, Wollaston, Greening are other strong candidates. Greening could probably stand as a Pro European Conservative in her seat, and win.
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
The problem with that is that I am not sure the government needs to submit a "No deal" bill do they? They simply allow A50 to take it's course over the cliff-edge. The only thing parliament could do to stop it is a VONC in the government.. I think. Anyone have a different view?
Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
(Near) certainties in British politics:
1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal 2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held
Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.
But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.
I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?
As the polling shows if Labour refuses to back EUref2 before Brexit Day, the LDs could see an SDP 1983 style surge leading to a similar general election
Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.
I assume if seven Tories (Might be more, no point in it being less) do take this ultimate step it'll be instant deselection for them in any subsequent GE..
I think that goes without saying.
They probably couldn’t give a shit. The sensible world of business will welcome them as heroes.
Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?
Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government. Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...
Indeed. He can just keep rejecting both the deal and the People's Vote campaigners arguing Tories will trigger an election. He has nothing to lose.
May should then fight a general election on her Deal, given the pathetic Corbyn has no alternative bar petty politics and is still trailing the Tories in many polls she might even win
I assume if seven Tories (Might be more, no point in it being less) do take this ultimate step it'll be instant deselection for them in any subsequent GE..
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
I don't think Ken Clark would ever no confidence a Conservative Gov't actually.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.
But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
Morgan, Wollaston, Greening are other strong candidates. Greening could probably stand as a Pro European Conservative in her seat, and win.
Not if there was an official Tory candidate also standing.
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
Morgan, Wollaston, Greening are other strong candidates. Greening could probably stand as a Pro European Conservative in her seat, and win.
Erm, no she couldn’t.
The minority of people who voted Leave in her constituency will have disproportionately voted for her. This is an inconvenient truth which many Europhile Tory MPs struggle with.
Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?
Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government. Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...
Indeed. He can just keep rejecting both the deal and the People's Vote campaigners arguing Tories will trigger an election. He has nothing to lose.
May should then fight a general election on her Deal, given the pathetic Corbyn has no alternative bar petty politics and is still trailing the Tories in many polls she might even win
You suggest this, but there's no way the Tories could line up in a GE behind a policy of backing the deal. You'd get 100 current Tory MPs refusing to do so for a start.
Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
(Near) certainties in British politics:
1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal 2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held
Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.
But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.
I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?
It takes a very unusual politician to defect. Many of them have most of their friendship/personal support groups made up of activists and others who support their parties. I would love to see a complete realignment, but of what I know about professional politicians I think it is sadly very unlikley
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
Precisely. So the government is now ramping up panic, spending untold billions and forcing business to do the same, on an outcome most of the government believes would be disastrous and in any case will not be accepted by Parliament under any circumstances.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.
But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.
You really are a prejudiced prick
Good to see you are not demeaning yourself, given your high standards.
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:
May’s deal
No deal
Remain.
If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.
If MPs want a better deal they should give Starmer a crack at negotiating one.
Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
(Near) certainties in British politics:
1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal 2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held
Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.
But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.
I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?
Depends what you mean by the SNP doing'well'. I doubt they will poll better than circa 33% next time.
Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.
Indeed
It is May who is playing chicken with the country’s future, by closing off all options other than her wretched deal. And why? To prove that she’s right. Neither she nor Corbyn are putting the country’s interests first.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.
But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.
So we can now count our adipose fat tissues as a way of coping with Brexit? It is all beginning to make sense.
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:
May’s deal
No deal
Remain.
If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.
If MPs want a better deal they should give Starmer a crack at negotiating one.
Worth a try. Let him and Labour negotiate something, then give MPs the choice which to back. If Labour's wins they get their election.
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
The most likely way this will move forward is when the meaningful vote goes to the HOC and the amendments are voted on first. Grieve's stops no deal in its tracks but the interesting vote will be on accepting the deal subject to a referendum
So many see TM snookered but do not underestimate her ability to survive
As has been pointed out several times, a referendum cannot be legislated via an amendment.
Its as Pie in the Sky as the wacky 'promise Labour a GE in return for their votes'. A general election is not in the gift of the Govt any more.
The only question is does he become Tory leader/PM in a coronation or landslide.
Neither, Hunt not only polls abysmally but has shifted from backing Remain to No Deal in barely 5 minutes
Yes, he has as much political integrity as Boris Johnson, but without the apparent charisma and wondering sexual appetites ( the latter as far as we know).
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
The most likely way this will move forward is when the meaningful vote goes to the HOC and the amendments are voted on first. Grieve's stops no deal in its tracks but the interesting vote will be on accepting the deal subject to a referendum
So many see TM snookered but do not underestimate her ability to survive
As has been pointed out several times, a referendum cannot be legislated via an amendment.
Its as Pie in the Sky as the wacky 'promise Labour a GE in return for their votes'. A general election is not in the gift of the Govt any more.
A referendum can't be legislated via an amendment, but it can be mandated by one.
Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.
Indeed
It is May who is playing chicken with the country’s future, by closing off all options other than her wretched deal. And why? To prove that she’s right. Neither she nor Corbyn are putting the country’s interests first.
She hasn't closed off any options. MPs have the ability to remove her anytime they want and we are assured parliament at least has a majority against what she wants so that should not be hard. People moaning she won't do what they want is one of the least convincing outrages out there at the moment, a figleaf, and I think she's doing both a bad job and should do other things.
The only question is does he become Tory leader/PM in a coronation or landslide.
Neither, Hunt not only polls abysmally but has shifted from backing Remain to No Deal in barely 5 minutes
Yes, he has as much political integrity as Boris Johnson, but without the apparent charisma and wondering sexual appetites ( the latter as far as we know).
Jeremy Hunt: Greater love hath no man than he lay down his principles for his career
Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
(Near) certainties in British politics:
1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal 2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held
Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.
But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.
I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?
It takes a very unusual politician to defect. Many of them have most of their friendship/personal support groups made up of activists and others who support their parties. I would love to see a complete realignment, but of what I know about professional politicians I think it is sadly very unlikley
Well some 25 Labour MPs did precisely that in 1981/82 - as did one Tory.
Toward no deal being the only viable alternative, increasing the likelihood of hers being signed?
I think it clear that Parliament will, under no circumstances, give in to such pathetic blackmail.
If we go over the cliff edge, it is because Mrs May chooses to let us. And May is basically giving Corbyn his dream outcome...
Go ahead, Theresa. DO IT, I double dare you.
No, May has produced a Deal after much work, the pathetic Corbyn refuses to back it though his own policy is indistinguishable. If we go to No Deal it will be the fault of Corbyn, the DUP and ERG
Another day, another instalment of Project Fear and watch how frightened everyone gets as soon as the Army gets mentioned.
Calculated nonsense aimed at panicking frightened people into signing up to May's Deal. All she and her allies have now is fear and they are hoping a couple of weeks of this propaganda will do the job.
There's nothing that can't be arranged or sorted in plenty of time (and would have been if this group of dullards had considered the most elementary contingency planning).
No one is going to starve, run out of medicines or be stopped from going anywhere. A great man once said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Nowadays, the only weapon a bad politician has is fear.
Project Fear's predictions are obviously ridiculous.
As you say, food and medicines will still make their way to the United Kingdom, and people will not starve.
But by attacking only the most extreme of Project Fear's prognostications, there is a tendency to pretend that there will be no ill effects whatsoever from crashing out.
Now, there is a genuine debate to be had about whether the costs of a sudden separation are worth the benefits. But I'm not seeing that debate. I'm seeing two sides: one which pretends there are no consequences from crashing out, and one which forecasts armageddon. That's not a healthy debate, and it's not conducive to good policy making.
Another day, another instalment of Project Fear and watch how frightened everyone gets as soon as the Army gets mentioned.
Calculated nonsense aimed at panicking frightened people into signing up to May's Deal. All she and her allies have now is fear and they are hoping a couple of weeks of this propaganda will do the job.
There's nothing that can't be arranged or sorted in plenty of time (and would have been if this group of dullards had considered the most elementary contingency planning).
No one is going to starve, run out of medicines or be stopped from going anywhere. A great man once said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Nowadays, the only weapon a bad politician has is fear.
Project Fear's predictions are obviously ridiculous.
As you say, food and medicines will still make their way to the United Kingdom, and people will not starve.
But by attacking only the most extreme of Project Fear's prognostications, there is a tendency to pretend that there will be no ill effects whatsoever from crashing out.
Now, there is a genuine debate to be had about whether the costs of a sudden separation are worth the benefits. But I'm not seeing that debate. I'm seeing two sides: one which pretends there are no consequences from crashing out, and one which forecasts armageddon. That's not a healthy debate, and it's not conducive to good policy making.
Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
(Near) certainties in British politics:
1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal 2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held
Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.
But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.
I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?
It takes a very unusual politician to defect. Many of them have most of their friendship/personal support groups made up of activists and others who support their parties. I would love to see a complete realignment, but of what I know about professional politicians I think it is sadly very unlikley
Well some 25 Labour MPs did precisely that in 1981/82 - as did one Tory.
A long long time ago, and the contortions individuals have undertaken to avoid doing the same since shows just how unlikely it is now.
Good for him. Would be great to see others saying the same.
Soubry has agreed with him, so that's two. You'd think people like Clark, Grieve, Allen would do the same as well. And that's before you get anymore cabinet resignations.
I think those believing No Deal is the most likely outcome need to consider this.
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
So what? ‘Not No Deal’ is not on the menu. The options are:
May’s deal
No deal
Remain.
If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.
If MPs want a better deal they should give Starmer a crack at negotiating one.
The only price being that we put a man who hates his own country into 10 Downing Street?
Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Er... like he wasn't going to anyway?
Releases all the pressure on Labour if he knows he can get Boles, Soubry and enough implied Tories to bring down their own Government. Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...
A
Indeed. He can just keep rejecting both the deal and the People's Vote campaigners arguing Tories will trigger an election. He has nothing to lose.
May should then fight a general election on her Deal, given the pathetic Corbyn has no alternative bar petty politics and is still trailing the Tories in many polls she might even win
You suggest this, but there's no way the Tories could line up in a GE behind a policy of backing the deal. You'd get 100 current Tory MPs refusing to do so for a start.
Not to mention May would witter on about her deal, while Corbyn would talk about everything other than Brexit. So, like last time. Only this time, many, many Tory PPCs will be on record saying what a poor deal they are campaigning for.
The only question is does he become Tory leader/PM in a coronation or landslide.
Neither, Hunt not only polls abysmally but has shifted from backing Remain to No Deal in barely 5 minutes
Yes, he has as much political integrity as Boris Johnson, but without the apparent charisma and wondering sexual appetites ( the latter as far as we know).
At least Boris backed Leave before the referendum, unlike Hunt who seems to be a 'Born Again' Hard Brexiteer No Dealer despite backing Remain in 2016
Nick Boles statement just gave Corbyn a massive reason to vote down the WA.
Corbyn is the type of socialist who is quite comfortable with maximum chaos in order to pave the way for his utopia. Once again he is in good company with the headbangers of the Tory right. For this reason he will vote down anything that would lead to stability and order. He is the perfect useful idiot for Vladimir Putin, along with his fellow travellers in Momentum and the ERG.
Indeed
It is May who is playing chicken with the country’s future, by closing off all options other than her wretched deal. And why? To prove that she’s right. Neither she nor Corbyn are putting the country’s interests first.
She hasn't closed off any options. MPs have the ability to remove her anytime they want and we are assured parliament at least has a majority against what she wants so that should not be hard. People moaning she won't do what they want is one of the least convincing outrages out there at the moment, a figleaf, and I think she's doing both a bad job and should do other things.
She can’t get her deal through. The EU says the negotiations are done.
She has ruled out revocation and a further referendum.
Yes - I’d say she’s closing off options.
She has put her survival and that of her deal above all other considerations. That is not the mark of a politician acting in the country’s interests.
"No Deal" doesn't need to become government policy to happen.
No but if enough Tory MPs VONC the government as tonight seems possible there will a general election and the voters will decide if they wish to proceed with No Deal or not
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
The notion that a country so stuffed full of food - not to mention with such an overweight citizenry - as ours might starve as a result of any likely Brexit fallout is for the birds. There's probably enough chocolate alone in British shops to provide everyone's recommended calorie intake for a month.
But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.
So we can now count our adipose fat tissues as a way of coping with Brexit? It is all beginning to make sense.
Methinks I will regret having lost 4 stone this year...
So are we supposed to believe that as the cliff edge approaches, businesses are screaming blue murder and supermarkets are besieged by panic buyers the government is going to tell parliament to FO and push the country over the edge?
Such a course might be legally acceptable but it is not politically possible.
Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.
Yes. In fact, I don't think there are all that many steps - though there are several scenarios through which it could come about. Most realistic is something similar to 1981, with mass defections from Labour to Lib Dem, which by reducing the fear of a Corbyn government then removes one of the props to the Tory vote share (especially if combined with a No Deal Brexit recession). Presumably a change of leader would need to come into the bargain.
(Near) certainties in British politics:
1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal 2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held
Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.
But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.
I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?
Depends what you mean by the SNP doing'well'. I doubt they will poll better than circa 33% next time.
If we go to No Deal Scotland could be independent by next time
Comments
* Band is not called Remain, that's the result of the ref.
Lest we forget Boles was Gove’s leadership campaign manager.
Unless I'm mistaken this is what Boles has just said...
https://youtu.be/tx94428MYcc
One potential risk is that a further step might be a rebrand and re-naming of the party. Though I'd still be arguing to get paid if it was the same legal entity.
The government has taken leave of its senses.
Looks like the end of the line either way.
Edit: Dan beat me to it!
Billions and billions of pounds of stock.
But yes, I concur that upper middle class, faux Marxist North Londoners would not be at all happy in the unlikely event of being forced to live off Fray Bentos meat pies and Cadbury's Dairy Milk for a few days. Good. I'm sure that the inevitable march on Whitehall demanding "Our right to superfood salads and quinoa" would further endear them to the nation at large.
There is definitely a majority in the HoC against it. The opposition parties would pretty much vote against it to a person and it seems very likely that enough Tories will vote against No Deal, even if the onlt way they can do that is through a VoNC.
And apparently now Leavers voted for no deal ! The ERG and the no deal nutjobs in the cabinet are utterly loathsome and are playing with people’s livelihoods over their pathetic ideology .
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwM9t8AFVVc
https://mobile.twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1074706292080545792
Nick Boles has also just said he would resign the Tory whip to vote to stop No Deal at all costs
https://mobile.twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1075069709840801793
Shape up man!
May’s deal
No deal
Remain.
If MPs don’t want ‘No Deal’, they should vote for the PM’s deal.
So many see TM snookered but do not underestimate her ability to survive
1) The DUP will never vote for that Deal
2) The SNP will do well whenever the next GE is held
Pretty much everything else is completely up in the air.
But I still reckon that there's going to need to be some kind of realignment to break the impasse if No Deal is to be averted - assuming that a majority of MPs continues to shun May's Deal.
I've assumed that this would most likely evolve out of the Labour Right and Tory Left temporarily joining forces in a panic around late February/early March time, but frankly who knows?
They probably couldn’t give a shit. The sensible world of business will welcome them as heroes.
The minority of people who voted Leave in her constituency will have disproportionately voted for her. This is an inconvenient truth which many Europhile Tory MPs struggle with.
Its as Pie in the Sky as the wacky 'promise Labour a GE in return for their votes'. A general election is not in the gift of the Govt any more.
As you say, food and medicines will still make their way to the United Kingdom, and people will not starve.
But by attacking only the most extreme of Project Fear's prognostications, there is a tendency to pretend that there will be no ill effects whatsoever from crashing out.
Now, there is a genuine debate to be had about whether the costs of a sudden separation are worth the benefits. But I'm not seeing that debate. I'm seeing two sides: one which pretends there are no consequences from crashing out, and one which forecasts armageddon. That's not a healthy debate, and it's not conducive to good policy making.
No thanks.
Sometimes I wonder whether we like sometimes to suffer.
So, like last time. Only this time, many, many Tory PPCs will be on record saying what a poor deal they are campaigning for.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1075080317524955139
She has ruled out revocation and a further referendum.
Yes - I’d say she’s closing off options.
She has put her survival and that of her deal above all other considerations. That is not the mark of a politician acting in the country’s interests.
Such a course might be legally acceptable but it is not politically possible.