Read the Newman thread (it was linked to above/below). The DUP may get the assurances they need. Certainly the direction of travel is encouraging.
There really by any sensible (!) estimation is no alternative to the deal. And people will slowly but surely fall into line with that thinking.
It's counterintuitive but I think falling into line with the deal is a prerequisite for a second referendum. The Brexit option needs to be accepted as legitimate if we're going to have a Deal/Remain vote, otherwise the whole thing will be too easy to discredit.
The Newman Thread does not explain *why* Revocation is off the table - he just says it is. So it is opinion, nothing more.
Read the Newman thread (it was linked to above/below). The DUP may get the assurances they need. Certainly the direction of travel is encouraging.
There really by any sensible (!) estimation is no alternative to the deal. And people will slowly but surely fall into line with that thinking.
It's counterintuitive but I think falling into line with the deal is a prerequisite for a second referendum. The Brexit option needs to be accepted as legitimate if we're going to have a Deal/Remain vote, otherwise the whole thing will be too easy to discredit.
The Newman Thread does not explain *why* Revocation is off the table - he just says it is. So it is opinion, nothing more.
When has the government suggested it is on the table?
That does not mean it cannot happen, that it is no longer an option. It just means the Govt is not talking about it.
Suppose that something crazy happens and a change of leadership / party occurs and the new PM decides to halt the whole thing. What stops them? Nothing. The option is still there and it will be until the last days of March 2019.
Everyone seems to believe Mrs May? And to think people said she was a poor negotiator.
I imagine that she and her advisers realised (before many people, although more are now getting there) that her deal is the only possible iteration of leaving while appreciating the unique situation that exists in GB & NI.
I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.
I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.
They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.
By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
Nah. They'll say Remainer May screwed it up.
When have these politicians ever accepted responsibility for anything?
If you wanted Leave politicians to take responsibility then Leave politicians should have been made responsible.
When leading Leave advocates have been screaming that Remainer May is doing the wrong thing at the time then it isn't hindsight to blame Remainer May afterwards.
That's nearly as embarrassing as your fantasy about Leo Varadkar being publicly very Pro Scottish Independence.
It's not remotely embarrassing. Remainer May has been in charge along with Remainer Robbins and has sidelined the Leavers to much glee from yourself.
It's like someone suggesting we take a road trip to France, then a driver who didn't want to go to France (May) insists upon driving off the cliffs of Dover and driving across the Channel.
Leavers whose idea it was to take the journey keep saying it is wrong. We've suggested taking the Ferry instead but are being ignored as May keeps driving to the cliff edge.
If despite all the warnings May's incompetence takes us over the cliff then that doesn't mean the journey itself was wrong. We should have taken the Ferry as we suggested.
May has ferry tickets. Unfortunately, the Leavers are insistent that the car has secret Chitty Chitty Bang Bang qualities and can fly.
May has Eurostar tickets. Leavers are adamant they don't want to board the Eurostar so want to take the Ferry instead.
Read the Newman thread (it was linked to above/below). The DUP may get the assurances they need. Certainly the direction of travel is encouraging.
There really by any sensible (!) estimation is no alternative to the deal. And people will slowly but surely fall into line with that thinking.
It's counterintuitive but I think falling into line with the deal is a prerequisite for a second referendum. The Brexit option needs to be accepted as legitimate if we're going to have a Deal/Remain vote, otherwise the whole thing will be too easy to discredit.
The Newman Thread does not explain *why* Revocation is off the table - he just says it is. So it is opinion, nothing more.
Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?
It would be entirely a matter for us. We have said that they all have leave to remain, work, use the Health Service and claim benefits. If any member of the EU did not reciprocate, of course, that might change for that nationality.
A close friend of mine is British but married a Belgian after leaving university, and they lived there and had three children. She's now back in Scotland with the children (as is he) but they are separated and she is trying to sort out the position of her children. She tells me that so far one has been given a British passport, one granted indefinite leave to stay on her Belgian passport, and the other is still waiting to hear. Real people, real lives.
A child who has a British parent has the right to British citizenship. And Britain allows dual nationality (unlike some EU countries) so even if they already have Belgian citizenship that is no bar.
I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.
I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.
They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.
By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
Do you really think so TSE, this will end the Eurosceptic movement like the referendum did.
We are already seeing a stab-in-the-back myth developing.
I do, one thing apparently Gove is admitting privately is that one of the unintended consequences of Brexit is that it has created a pro European movement in the UK where none existed before.
It is hard to see several hundred thousand people marching in London in favour of the EU if Remain had won.
Leave are the establishment now.
Every bad thing that happens in the UK for the next few years is going to be blamed on Brexit, even the next cyclical recession.
People will probably double down on the views which they already hold.
If steps are taken on both sides to mitigate the impact of No Deal (as seems likely) then the economy won't fall off a cliff on 30th March. The impact in the longer term might well be serious, but if there is no sudden crash, a lot of people will just conclude that it was another case of crying wolf.
Does your version of 'no deal' not involve WTO tariffs applying on day one? I'm not sure how you arrive at a version of 'no deal' where the impact is long term, not short term.
Even so, so many predictions have been made along the lines of supermarkets running out of food, planes being grounded, hospitals running out of medicines, that if the impact is simply bad, as opposed to catastrophic, a lot of people will view the warnings with disbelief.
Read the Newman thread (it was linked to above/below). The DUP may get the assurances they need. Certainly the direction of travel is encouraging.
There really by any sensible (!) estimation is no alternative to the deal. And people will slowly but surely fall into line with that thinking.
It's counterintuitive but I think falling into line with the deal is a prerequisite for a second referendum. The Brexit option needs to be accepted as legitimate if we're going to have a Deal/Remain vote, otherwise the whole thing will be too easy to discredit.
The Newman Thread does not explain *why* Revocation is off the table - he just says it is. So it is opinion, nothing more.
Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?
It would be entirely a matter for us. We have said that they all have leave to remain, work, use the Health Service and claim benefits. If any member of the EU did not reciprocate, of course, that might change for that nationality.
A close friend of mine is British but married a Belgian after leaving university, and they lived there and had three children. She's now back in Scotland with the children (as is he) but they are separated and she is trying to sort out the position of her children. She tells me that so far one has been given a British passport, one granted indefinite leave to stay on her Belgian passport, and the other is still waiting to hear. Real people, real lives.
A child who has a British parent has the right to British citizenship. And Britain allows dual nationality (unlike some EU countries) so even if they already have Belgian citizenship that is no bar.
Given the way the Home Office works, it is a very good idea to get all the paperwork sorted. Look at the Windrush debacle...
Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?
It would be entirely a matter for us. We have said that they all have leave to remain, work, use the Health Service and claim benefits. If any member of the EU did not reciprocate, of course, that might change for that nationality.
A close friend of mine is British but married a Belgian after leaving university, and they lived there and had three children. She's now back in Scotland with the children (as is he) but they are separated and she is trying to sort out the position of her children. She tells me that so far one has been given a British passport, one granted indefinite leave to stay on her Belgian passport, and the other is still waiting to hear. Real people, real lives.
A child who has a British parent has the right to British citizenship. And Britain allows dual nationality (unlike some EU countries) so even if they already have Belgian citizenship that is no bar.
Hopefully it'll end up like that, but she is clearly being put through the hoops to get there.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
One reason I would take this poll with a grain of salt is that the question states: "..Labour supported going ahead with Brexit.."
It posits a scenario in which there is a single, united, Labour policy. It doesn't ask: "..Jeremy Corbyn supported going ahead with Brexit while a majority of Labour MPs, possibly including your local candidate, supported a public vote.."
There's an extent to which divisions over Brexit are helpful for a political party, because they make it easier for voters opposed to the leadership Brexit policy to vote for the party.
Looking ahead, the Labour party as a whole is not at this minute in dire trouble but it would be the moment a couple of things happen: It is in dire trouble if it is seen as being the body of opinion that causes Remain to triumph eventually; and it is dire trouble if it has to take responsibility (by forming the government) of what is currently a Tory problem; and it is in dire trouble if they actually had to have a coherent policy about the real world prior to 29th March.
I don't think anyone wants to own this until 30th March at the earliest, which means that with all the huffing and puffing, Labour's best course is to be the opposition party until at least then, and the ensure that TM's government takes responsibility for the problems up to and of 29th March. The safest way to ensure this is by judicious use of abstention and individual rebellion make sure we actually leave on 29th March - and TMs deal is the only show in town to do so without something going pop.
As a VONC on 30th March or after may well get DUP behind Labour and succeed, the best Labour tactic is a no brainer.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
Brexit: not quite as bad as Hitler
They should have put that on the side of bus.
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international community (bar Sri Lanka of course)!
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
Presumably they're just trying to pacify the raving, damp-trousered panicker in their midst.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
Brexit: not quite as bad as Hitler
They should have put that on the side of bus.
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international country (bar Sri Lanka of course)!
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.
I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.
They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.
By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
Do you really think so TSE, this will end the Eurosceptic movement like the referendum did.
We are already seeing a stab-in-the-back myth developing.
I do, one thing apparently Gove is admitting privately is that one of the unintended consequences of Brexit is that it has created a pro European movement in the UK where none existed before.
It is hard to see several hundred thousand people marching in London in favour of the EU if Remain had won.
Leave are the establishment now.
Every bad thing that happens in the UK for the next few years is going to be blamed on Brexit, even the next cyclical recession.
People will probably double down on the views which they already hold.
If steps are taken on both sides to mitigate the impact of No Deal (as seems likely) then the economy won't fall off a cliff on 30th March. The impact in the longer term might well be serious, but if there is no sudden crash, a lot of people will just conclude that it was another case of crying wolf.
Does your version of 'no deal' not involve WTO tariffs applying on day one? I'm not sure how you arrive at a version of 'no deal' where the impact is long term, not short term.
Even so, so many predictions have been made along the lines of supermarkets running out of food, planes being grounded, hospitals running out of medicines, that if the impact is simply bad, as opposed to catastrophic, a lot of people will view the warnings with disbelief.
The issue for No Deal advocates is that whether the warnings are justified or not, they will likely become self-fulfulling since they will provoke shortages through panic-buying, and a recession through a wait-and-see reluctance to spend.
Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?
It would be entirely a matter for us. We have said that they all have leave to remain, work, use the Health Service and claim benefits. If any member of the EU did not reciprocate, of course, that might change for that nationality.
A close friend of mine is British but married a Belgian after leaving university, and they lived there and had three children. She's now back in Scotland with the children (as is he) but they are separated and she is trying to sort out the position of her children. She tells me that so far one has been given a British passport, one granted indefinite leave to stay on her Belgian passport, and the other is still waiting to hear. Real people, real lives.
A child who has a British parent has the right to British citizenship. And Britain allows dual nationality (unlike some EU countries) so even if they already have Belgian citizenship that is no bar.
Hopefully it'll end up like that, but she is clearly being put through the hoops to get there.
I had friends whose children were born in Paris, when enquiring of the British Embassy whether that affected their nationality were told 'You're British, they're British - makes no difference."
It's counterintuitive but I think falling into line with the deal is a prerequisite for a second referendum. The Brexit option needs to be accepted as legitimate if we're going to have a Deal/Remain vote, otherwise the whole thing will be too easy to discredit.
An interesting point. Does the infamous Grieve amendment allow the Commons to pass the WA subject to ratification by referendum?
Because, yes, to spend weeks trashing it before rejecting it resoundingly in a vote, and then to turn around and toss the poor abused thing to the public versus Remain would be the most utter risible nonsense.
When someone is charged with murder there is a prohibition on the defendant being roasted all over the media in the weeks leading up to the trial. There is a reason for this.
Leaving aside the bickering etc, if we do depart on any sort of terms without a deal, it'll be interesting from a geopolitical perspective. Will it be seen as the start of the end of the EU, or shore up and strengthen the 27 who remain? Will the UK, almost certainly taking at least a short term economic hit, crumble and beg for re-entry, or get through the hard times and, having done so, be determined to make the most of our freedom of action, unconstrained by the EU?
How will the people, the politicians, and the media respond to the situation?
Hmm. It makes me wonder about putting together some sort of book. Perhaps diaries of how events are going and how individuals feel about it, and then putting together the entries to get multiple perspectives on the same events.
As an aside, diary studies of PMS indicated that more women claimed they had it than even self-reported, so keeping notes can be far more accurate than trying to remember (or even confidently, but wrongly, 'remembering') one's perspective.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
Brexit: not quite as bad as Hitler
They should have put that on the side of bus.
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international country (bar Sri Lanka of course)!
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
Brexit: not quite as bad as Hitler
They should have put that on the side of bus.
We are the laughing stock of the international community (bar Sri Lanka of course)!
We really aren't you know - despite how much you might wish it.
Yes, TV comedy shows are making fun of us, or more accurately, our politicians (I bet Cameron was dead chuffed to be played by Matt Damon) - but for a mid-rank power we easily surpass our peers in 'soft power'.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.
I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.
They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.
By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
Do you really think so TSE, this will end the Eurosceptic movement like the referendum did.
We are already seeing a stab-in-the-back myth developing.
I do, one thing apparently Gove is admitting privately is that one of the unintended consequences of Brexit is that it has created a pro European movement in the UK where none existed before.
It is hard to see several hundred thousand people marching in London in favour of the EU if Remain had won.
Leave are the establishment now.
Every bad thing that happens in the UK for the next few years is going to be blamed on Brexit, even the next cyclical recession.
People will probably double down on the views which they already hold.
If steps are taken on both sides to mitigate the impact of No Deal (as seems likely) then the economy won't fall off a cliff on 30th March. The impact in the longer term might well be serious, but if there is no sudden crash, a lot of people will just conclude that it was another case of crying wolf.
Does your version of 'no deal' not involve WTO tariffs applying on day one? I'm not sure how you arrive at a version of 'no deal' where the impact is long term, not short term.
Even so, so many predictions have been made along the lines of supermarkets running out of food, planes being grounded, hospitals running out of medicines, that if the impact is simply bad, as opposed to catastrophic, a lot of people will view the warnings with disbelief.
This may be true. But, there are still an awful lot who think No Deal means No Change.
Leaving aside the bickering etc, if we do depart on any sort of terms without a deal, it'll be interesting from a geopolitical perspective. Will it be seen as the start of the end of the EU, or shore up and strengthen the 27 who remain? Will the UK, almost certainly taking at least a short term economic hit, crumble and beg for re-entry, or get through the hard times and, having done so, be determined to make the most of our freedom of action, unconstrained by the EU?
How will the people, the politicians, and the media respond to the situation?
Hmm. It makes me wonder about putting together some sort of book. Perhaps diaries of how events are going and how individuals feel about it, and then putting together the entries to get multiple perspectives on the same events.
As an aside, diary studies of PMS indicated that more women claimed they had it than even self-reported, so keeping notes can be far more accurate than trying to remember (or even confidently, but wrongly, 'remembering') one's perspective.
The "EU is collapsing" narrative is strongly felt among Brexiteers but pretty much absent elsewhere IMO (I note that this narrative has been spun since at least 2010 that I can remember, with the word Grexit being the forerunner to "Brexit").
I expect it will be seen as part of a nationalist, anti-globalisation backlash to the liberal consensus of the 2000s and early 2010s, but ultimately EU or not Brussels will always have a big influence on our policies.
Leaving aside that I'm vehemently opposed to a No Deal exit happening, there is a sort of morbid curiosity to see what happens when we stress test our economy and governmental institutions. Probably the same thing that drove me to try to format our family computer's hard drive growing up.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
The great KFC shortage. Or more temporally appropriate, the panic buying because food shops may (not will) be shut on 25 December.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
I think 52% will be able to cope without soiling themselves.
The result of the YouGov poll isn't surprising. The LibDems are the only GB-wide party with more than one MP that could write a proper policy on Brexit in their manifesto that they could get behind as a party. They are also the only one which can say which option they want voters to support in another referendum.
The Empire went from "Kiss me Hardy" and Nelson's emotive approach to the Iron Duke in just a few years.
Mr Dancer: If you've ever read anything about the Royal Navy in Nelson's time (as I suspect you have) you will know that it doesn't stand well as an expample of a lack of stoicism.
Those men who fought in Nelson's navy endured incredible hardships, risks and stress, the like of which we would not readily accept today. I don't think there was much difference in resliences between Nelson's navy and Wellington's army.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
Brexit: not quite as bad as Hitler
They should have put that on the side of bus.
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international country (bar Sri Lanka of course)!
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Yes, that does seem to accurately sum up the progress to a #peoplesvote
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
Brexit: not quite as bad as Hitler
They should have put that on the side of bus.
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international country (bar Sri Lanka of course)!
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Yes, that does seem to accurately sum up the progress to a #peoplesvote
Yes, it took 22 years from the founding of the Referendum Party to the People's Vote.
Because it keeps in his pocket the card of tabling the motion that won't be passed?
He could table a VoNC in the government as many times as he likes - it's not a one-shot option.
Using that card even once nullifies the loophole he is using to avoid the terms of his Conference motion. Naughty Mr Corbyn, who once used to take Conference so seriously.
One reason I would take this poll with a grain of salt is that the question states: "..Labour supported going ahead with Brexit.."
It posits a scenario in which there is a single, united, Labour policy. It doesn't ask: "..Jeremy Corbyn supported going ahead with Brexit while a majority of Labour MPs, possibly including your local candidate, supported a public vote.."
There's an extent to which divisions over Brexit are helpful for a political party, because they make it easier for voters opposed to the leadership Brexit policy to vote for the party.
Indeed. It is a tricky tightrope for Labour to walk, and it could backfire, but at the moment the free for all is working for them.
I don't think anyone wants to own this until 30th March at the earliest, which means that with all the huffing and puffing, Labour's best course is to be the opposition party until at least then, and the ensure that TM's government takes responsibility for the problems up to and of 29th March. The safest way to ensure this is by judicious use of abstention and individual rebellion make sure we actually leave on 29th March - and TMs deal is the only show in town to do so without something going pop.
Bang.
Or +1 rather.
Labour are key to this. Ok yes I know, the DUP are key too, and so are the ERG, and the PV faction, they are all key to this. But Labour are the keyest.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
Brexit: not quite as bad as Hitler
They should have put that on the side of bus.
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international country (bar Sri Lanka of course)!
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Yes, that does seem to accurately sum up the progress to a #peoplesvote
A child who has a British parent has the right to British citizenship
Yes but if born outside of Britain with a British citizen as their parent they will have British citizenship by descent and will not be able automatically to pass it to their own children, unlike if they were born to a British parent in Britain.
The Empire went from "Kiss me Hardy" and Nelson's emotive approach to the Iron Duke in just a few years.
Mr Dancer: If you've ever read anything about the Royal Navy in Nelson's time (as I suspect you have) you will know that it doesn't stand well as an expample of a lack of stoicism.
Those men who fought in Nelson's navy endured incredible hardships, risks and stress, the like of which we would not readily accept today. I don't think there was much difference in resliences between Nelson's navy and Wellington's army.
NAM Rogers in his excellent history of the Royal Navy "Command of the Ocean" points out that RN sailors in the age of sail had lower death rates than their civilian counterparts, despite the obvious hardships.
More relevantly, why are we to judge ourselves, or other nations, based on people laughing at us/them during periods of difficult politics? No one likes being laughed at, but everyone goes through difficult times, there's no need to cry about it or act as though the fact others find amusement at your difficult situation is in itself something that is of much relevance.
A child who has a British parent has the right to British citizenship
Yes but if born outside of Britain with a British citizen as their parent they will have British citizenship by descent and will not be able automatically to pass it to their own children, unlike if they were born to a British parent in Britain.
If they naturalise as a British citizen they will - but yes, its a watch out for the children of children born abroad.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
Brexit: not quite as bad as Hitler
They should have put that on the side of bus.
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international country (bar Sri Lanka of course)!
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Yes, that does seem to accurately sum up the progress to a #peoplesvote
Yes, it took 22 years from the founding of the Referendum Party to the People's Vote.
Remainers are much better organised, getting there in less than 2 years
This isn't completely stupid at 250/1 (or even 100/1).
Cameron might well be asked to mind the shop if: (1) a vacancy arose at no notice; (2) a HoC VoNC propelled May out of office, Corbyn tried to form a govt but lost a HoC vote too, and someone was required to head the government during the ensuing election, who hadn't just been No Confidenced by the House.
I appreciate that scenario (2) is unorthodox but I'm not sure we fully appreciate the dynamics of the FTPA yet. Previously, if a govt loses a VoNC then it either resigns immediately or goes to the country immediately. That no longer applies. The two-week period effectively makes for a game of pass-the-parcel. Would it be right that whoever was the last to try to form a government and failed to do so got to hold on in office for the general election? My guess is that it wouldn't be - that they too should resign as the previous government had. In that situation, it might well be appropriate to call on an experienced politician who is out of current front-line politics to head things up on a temporary basis until the GE had clarified matters - and that someone from the party in govt before the VoNC would be the natural choice.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
Brexit: not quite as bad as Hitler
They should have put that on the side of bus.
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international country (bar Sri Lanka of course)!
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Yes, that does seem to accurately sum up the progress to a #peoplesvote
Funny you should mention Peoples Vote and Progress in the same sentence
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
Mr. Freggles, losing one of the two largest military powers, and the second largest net contributor, and the financial capital of Europe, is more than a theoretical change, though.
This isn't completely stupid at 250/1 (or even 100/1).
Cameron might well be asked to mind the shop if: (1) a vacancy arose at no notice; (2) a HoC VoNC propelled May out of office, Corbyn tried to form a govt but lost a HoC vote too, and someone was required to head the government during the ensuing election, who hadn't just been No Confidenced by the House.
I appreciate that scenario (2) is unorthodox but I'm not sure we fully appreciate the dynamics of the FTPA yet. Previously, if a govt loses a VoNC then it either resigns immediately or goes to the country immediately. That no longer applies. The two-week period effectively makes for a game of pass-the-parcel. Would it be right that whoever was the last to try to form a government and failed to do so got to hold on in office for the general election? My guess is that it wouldn't be - that they too should resign as the previous government had. In that situation, it might well be appropriate to call on an experienced politician who is out of current front-line politics to head things up on a temporary basis until the GE had clarified matters - and that someone from the party in govt before the VoNC would be the natural choice.
Surely it would have to be someone who is in the HoC or at the very outside, the HoL?
Hague, Cable, Clarke, Beckett all more likely interim candidates imo.
Aside from not being in parliament, Cameron would be far, far too divisive, as would for example Blair or Brown.
As someone who used to work in HR in a very large company, our experience was that whenever reservists were called up, we had a flood of requests for managers to sign forms for the relevant employees confirming that they were engaged in vital work and couldn't be released. Admittedly those were being sent into the desert; whether there will be similar reluctance to serve holding back crowds of starving Uk citizens remains to be seen....
Mr. Freggles, losing one of the two largest military powers, and the second largest net contributor, and the financial capital of Europe, is more than a theoretical change, though.
There are always standby units (eg. Spearhead). In this case it would be called into service as a result of MACA or MACP. There are similar "mobilisations" when eg. you see troops at LHR swanning around in scimitars enjoying a day out from Combermere Barracks.
Yes, I know. Your claim was that she points out that the only majority is FOR no deal. I am pointing out that she actually says the only majority is AGAINST no deal. Read the second last para again.
I am always quite sceptical of polls since May lost her 20% lead in the last election. Hopefully her successor won’t be such a duffer. Labour will do better I think simply because Corbyn, for all his many faults, is a good campaigner. There is also a very long time (in political terms) between now and the next election - assuming May doesn’t crash to a VNOC which looks unlikely given Labour’s almighty cock up last night.
The LibDems have got absolutely nothing going for them.
Yes, I know. Your claim was that she points out that the only majority is FOR no deal. I am pointing out that she actually says the only majority is AGAINST no deal. Read the second last para again.
Yes, I know. Your claim was that she points out that the only majority is FOR no deal. I am pointing out that she actually says the only majority is AGAINST no deal. Read the second last para again.
My, this is hard work today.
Yes, I missed "against' no deal, which is what I intended (and the rest of the comment should have been clear on)
Looking ahead, the Labour party as a whole is not at this minute in dire trouble but it would be the moment a couple of things happen: It is in dire trouble if it is seen as being the body of opinion that causes Remain to triumph eventually; and it is dire trouble if it has to take responsibility (by forming the government) of what is currently a Tory problem; and it is in dire trouble if they actually had to have a coherent policy about the real world prior to 29th March.
I don't think anyone wants to own this until 30th March at the earliest, which means that with all the huffing and puffing, Labour's best course is to be the opposition party until at least then, and the ensure that TM's government takes responsibility for the problems up to and of 29th March. The safest way to ensure this is by judicious use of abstention and individual rebellion make sure we actually leave on 29th March - and TMs deal is the only show in town to do so without something going pop.
As a VONC on 30th March or after may well get DUP behind Labour and succeed, the best Labour tactic is a no brainer.
Yes, I still think the most intelligent course for Labour would be (eventually) to allow the deal to pass by a reluctant abstention. If before that they could be seen to support a referendum, that might tend to limit the damage to their support by remainers - but being, cynical, they would want to support it only from a position of confidence that it wasn't going to happen.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
Er, you've obviously not spent much time here in Dorset recently. When Waitrose runs low on extra virgin olive oil the local wrinkly Leave voters are going to have serious regrets...
... More seriously, they'll start worrying when their meds dry up, that's for sure.
And, as a minor side consequence, so will the Tories be. They will be wiped out on a scale that is like Canada when the utter disaster that is no-deal happens in April. No matter how long they put off the GE. No voter will give a hoot, or even remember, that they voted for this: they will be too busy going nuts about job losses, lack of food and basic supplies, byzantine rationing schemes, meds problems, hospitals busting open with the elderly who can't get regular meds etc etc.
Don't forget this lot can't even organize a new railway timetable without chaos. Imagine them rationing food and organizing twenty miles of backed-up lorries full of vital supplies.
I see one of the Cabinet warned others that in the end the massive job losses would include their own voters who would act accordingly.
Comments
Suppose that something crazy happens and a change of leadership / party occurs and the new PM decides to halt the whole thing. What stops them? Nothing. The option is still there and it will be until the last days of March 2019.
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1074646780938203136
They should have put that on the side of bus.
It posits a scenario in which there is a single, united, Labour policy. It doesn't ask: "..Jeremy Corbyn supported going ahead with Brexit while a majority of Labour MPs, possibly including your local candidate, supported a public vote.."
There's an extent to which divisions over Brexit are helpful for a political party, because they make it easier for voters opposed to the leadership Brexit policy to vote for the party.
I don't think anyone wants to own this until 30th March at the earliest, which means that with all the huffing and puffing, Labour's best course is to be the opposition party until at least then, and the ensure that TM's government takes responsibility for the problems up to and of 29th March. The safest way to ensure this is by judicious use of abstention and individual rebellion make sure we actually leave on 29th March - and TMs deal is the only show in town to do so without something going pop.
As a VONC on 30th March or after may well get DUP behind Labour and succeed, the best Labour tactic is a no brainer.
Yes, and they were bloody miserable...
Because, yes, to spend weeks trashing it before rejecting it resoundingly in a vote, and then to turn around and toss the poor abused thing to the public versus Remain would be the most utter risible nonsense.
When someone is charged with murder there is a prohibition on the defendant being roasted all over the media in the weeks leading up to the trial. There is a reason for this.
How will the people, the politicians, and the media respond to the situation?
Hmm. It makes me wonder about putting together some sort of book. Perhaps diaries of how events are going and how individuals feel about it, and then putting together the entries to get multiple perspectives on the same events.
As an aside, diary studies of PMS indicated that more women claimed they had it than even self-reported, so keeping notes can be far more accurate than trying to remember (or even confidently, but wrongly, 'remembering') one's perspective.
Yes, TV comedy shows are making fun of us, or more accurately, our politicians (I bet Cameron was dead chuffed to be played by Matt Damon) - but for a mid-rank power we easily surpass our peers in 'soft power'.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-eu-referendum-vote-leave-what-next-2018-vindicate-my-decision-a8107901.html
The Empire went from "Kiss me Hardy" and Nelson's emotive approach to the Iron Duke in just a few years.
I expect it will be seen as part of a nationalist, anti-globalisation backlash to the liberal consensus of the 2000s and early 2010s, but ultimately EU or not Brussels will always have a big influence on our policies.
Leaving aside that I'm vehemently opposed to a No Deal exit happening, there is a sort of morbid curiosity to see what happens when we stress test our economy and governmental institutions. Probably the same thing that drove me to try to format our family computer's hard drive growing up.
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1075005599799279616
UK: 1
France: 2
Germany: 3
US: 4
Japan: 5
Those men who fought in Nelson's navy endured incredible hardships, risks and stress, the like of which we would not readily accept today. I don't think there was much difference in resliences between Nelson's navy and Wellington's army.
Or +1 rather.
Labour are key to this. Ok yes I know, the DUP are key too, and so are the ERG, and the PV faction, they are all key to this. But Labour are the keyest.
She writes she supports the Deal.....
Cameron might well be asked to mind the shop if:
(1) a vacancy arose at no notice;
(2) a HoC VoNC propelled May out of office, Corbyn tried to form a govt but lost a HoC vote too, and someone was required to head the government during the ensuing election, who hadn't just been No Confidenced by the House.
I appreciate that scenario (2) is unorthodox but I'm not sure we fully appreciate the dynamics of the FTPA yet. Previously, if a govt loses a VoNC then it either resigns immediately or goes to the country immediately. That no longer applies. The two-week period effectively makes for a game of pass-the-parcel. Would it be right that whoever was the last to try to form a government and failed to do so got to hold on in office for the general election? My guess is that it wouldn't be - that they too should resign as the previous government had. In that situation, it might well be appropriate to call on an experienced politician who is out of current front-line politics to head things up on a temporary basis until the GE had clarified matters - and that someone from the party in govt before the VoNC would be the natural choice.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
Unless we’re describing the ERG.
Hague, Cable, Clarke, Beckett all more likely interim candidates imo.
Aside from not being in parliament, Cameron would be far, far too divisive, as would for example Blair or Brown.
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-one-biggest-contributors-eu-budget/
My, this is hard work today.
The LibDems have got absolutely nothing going for them.
He was awful last time and has spent his time since doing nothing. Even the Tories aren’t that stupid.
... More seriously, they'll start worrying when their meds dry up, that's for sure.
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1074634063322013696
All countries have their 'myths' ours of "stood alone"
(with a quarter of the planet)is no substitute for rational analysis1) May's deal passes - 85%
2) May's deal doesn't pass, May extends A50, referendum is called Deal vs Remain - 15%
Betting PostBacked No Deal before 1 April 2019 (and leaving the EU within that time) on Ladbrokes at 5 (5.25 with boost).
It's the default option. The alternatives are a referendum (already green on that at 6.5) and May's deal, which looks improbable.
#WhipHand #UpYoursEnoch
And, as a minor side consequence, so will the Tories be. They will be wiped out on a scale that is like Canada when the utter disaster that is no-deal happens in April. No matter how long they put off the GE. No voter will give a hoot, or even remember, that they voted for this: they will be too busy going nuts about job losses, lack of food and basic supplies, byzantine rationing schemes, meds problems, hospitals busting open with the elderly who can't get regular meds etc etc.
Don't forget this lot can't even organize a new railway timetable without chaos. Imagine them rationing food and organizing twenty miles of backed-up lorries full of vital supplies.
I see one of the Cabinet warned others that in the end the massive job losses would include their own voters who would act accordingly.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
The mess we are in is off the scale and we are being led by clowns of the highest order.
History will hold these people as effectively wanton criminals who should never have been near office.
Great betting opportunity because the market has it below 50% never mind 75 or 85.
Except not a great betting opportunity (for me) because I'm maxed out and at odds that are a lot worse than now available. Ah well.
He reminds me a bit of Francis Urquhart in space.