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  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Really when the Scots media are full of it on a daily basis
    That is also true in England & Wales - yet most people are not obsessed with Brexit.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Lol, scratch a reactionary labourite, find a Rajoy style supporter of granny truncheoning and jailing opponents. Mind you, the left wing ones aren't much better.
    Let’s not forget the other key difference between Catalonia and Scotland. Catalonia is a net contributor to the Spanish treasury.

    Remind me, what was Scotland’s GERS deficit per the latest figures?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758


    And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea ports

    The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire
    All the kitties in the queues won’t be delivering goods in Germany and Italy
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    I think what TM should do is hold an indicative vote on each alternative (including No Deal) to the Deal before the final vote on the Deal. If and when they all fail (and probably by miles) to get a majority, the vote on the Deal then becomes a 'shit or get off the pot' affair. No, double apologies, that is both vulgar and not quite right. The vote becomes a choice that is no choice at all because all else has been ruled out. The deal must pass in those circumstances unless parliament is prepared to look ridiculous. The idea here, because there will be effectively no choice when the final decision is made, is to turn the meaningful vote into a meaningLESS vote. I hope that something like that can be engineered. This parliament are proving themselves undeserving of anything else.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    edited December 2018

    I think expecting Spain, Hungary, and Italy to play ball might be asking a lot.

    The Withdrawal Agreement was voted under QMV, an extension to Article 50 would not, every country would have a veto.
    But they cannot stop us revoking and whilst recovation would be the end of the withdrawal process there would be nothing to stop the government of the day invoking A50 again later.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,440



    I'm in Scotland, and I never hear about Brexit.

    Really when the Scots media are full of it on a daily basis

    I don't read much media - I mean it's not discussed. I think people are genuinely bored, and waiting to see what happens. You can't be outraged every day, you'd develop ulcers.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    kinabalu said:

    The deal must pass in those circumstances unless parliament is prepared to look ridiculous.

    Ahhhh, and there's the flaw.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    kinabalu said:

    The deal must pass in those circumstances unless parliament is prepared to look ridiculous.

    And why would they start worrying about that now?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,397
    I was just pondering the overall picture. I came up withe the following - actually to guide my betting, but wonder how much people might disagree.

    Essentially three considerations - the actual wisdom of the thing - so basically utility, the perception (home and abroad), and the question marks over whether the government is playing by the rules.

    May's deal - 80% sensible, slightly weak, doesn't damage constitution (NI excepted)
    No deal - 20% sensible, brave as brass, doesn't damage constitution
    Delay - 30% sensible, horribly weak, minor damage to constitution
    New vote - 50% sensible, quite weak, substantially damaging to constitution
    Revoke - 10% sensible, hopelessly weak, massively damaging to constitution

    Now these are just my random thoughts. I'm sure everyone will disagree, but on the other hand I'm not so sure that everyone wouldn't essentially finish up with the same conclusion. May's deal is, on balance, the best option. (The NI issue is important though - we can't willy-nilly abandon bits of the realm. The DUP are right to point this out, but if that circle can be squared then there's no constitutional damage.)

    The ordering is roughly in my personal order of preference. I'd happily slot 'another deal' in at #2 if there was such a thing, but in reality there isn't, so it's just 'Delay'.

    Abuse is, as always, next door :)

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,111
    kinabalu said:

    I think what TM should do is hold an indicative vote on each alternative (including No Deal) to the Deal before the final vote on the Deal. If and when they all fail (and probably by miles) to get a majority, the vote on the Deal then becomes a 'shit or get off the pot' affair. No, double apologies, that is both vulgar and not quite right. The vote becomes a choice that is no choice at all because all else has been ruled out. The deal must pass in those circumstances unless parliament is prepared to look ridiculous. The idea here, because there will be effectively no choice when the final decision is made, is to turn the meaningful vote into a meaningLESS vote. I hope that something like that can be engineered. This parliament are proving themselves undeserving of anything else.

    That assumes our MPs will be rational. Events so far make me fear that's not the case.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    But they cannot stop us revoking
    The countries can't. The ECJ can.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    malcolmg said:

    Why not live in the past, though you southerners seem to all think you are Scottish experts. Keep dreaming. We saw your ilk today with Fatty Soames telling Ian Blackford to go home. Tories cannot help being nasty bas*****
    I believe you have admitted to being of that ilk yourself in the past.
  • malcolmg said:

    Especially given the majority voted to Remain
    Scotland is part of the U.K. and it was a U.K. referendum.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    malcolmg said:

    I doubt she will get that long , a referendum is expected before next election or they will have issues
    Then might I suggest that you have a problem?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited December 2018
    justin124 said:

    Not at all. It is a perfectly legitimate view to hold. There is nothing extreme about suggesting that Devolution was a mistake , and any democrat should be able to understand that. It is an issue on which I always agreed with Tam Dalyell - - his 'slippery slope' argument.You - and others - may disagree with the suggestion that the Devolution Legislation ought to be repealed, but it is a perfectly valid viewpoint and one held by many voters within Scotland itself. I am not actually arguing for such a policy , but any attempt at UDI would merit a firm response by Westminster - Holyrood can be suspended in the way that Stormont was in Spring 1972.

    The issue with post-1997 devolution, and more particularly with the decision of Parliament to accede to the Scottish Government's demands for an independence referendum, is that Westminster has chosen to redefine the nature of the United Kingdom. De jure this is still a unitary state; de facto it's just a collection of four associated communities. Having recognised a right of secession, Westminster has effectively declared that the Union is both temporary and dissoluble, and that its constituent parts can vote to up sticks and leave at any time if sufficient will exists. Under these circumstances, whilst Westminster theoretically has the right to suspend the Scottish Parliament, in practice such action is unthinkable: the Scottish Parliament is that body through which Scotland asserts its rights as a potentially sovereign state under the new constitutional settlement. And it's very hard to see how the Union can be recast as indivisible again, even if we were to enact a root and branch program of reform and give ourselves a federal constitution, endorsed by popular majorities in all four parts. Such a document would almost certainly need to include a right of secession in order to pass.

    I won't indulge in speculation about either the immediate probability or the desirability of dissolution (there's not enough room in this post,) but if Brexit doesn't trigger it then, given that the Union has been defined as impermanent, the eventual likelihood of schism must be regarded as something close to 100%. It's probably not a matter of if the UK ends, but rather of when.
  • You trot that out a lot when you have no argument. Still if it’s your equivalent of a baby’s comfort, knock yourself out continuing.
    Let me say this. At my age no deal will not bother me personally. Only this year my wife and I accepted we will never fly again so that does not bother us. We will not travel to Europe either.

    Over the last ten years we have travelled to all the corners of the planet, filled our bucket lists over several times, and are blessed with our own home and pension and security

    But, I have a responsibility to fight for my families and my grandchildrens future and a country that is at ease with itself and its neighbours

    This is my argument explained politely to you
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited December 2018
    TOPPING said:

    We don't need to wait and see what happens. You have told us that you voted for something which could be a political failure of the first magnitude.

    Absolutely bizarre.
    Meh. On reflection, not worth a rant :).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    justin124 said:

    What is so outrageous about seeking to restore constitutional arrangements to how they existed for generations until twenty years ago?
    Because real devolution - not just to Scotland and Wales but to the regions within Europe and to local government within the UK - is the critical missing piece that gets us from our currently over-centralised nation and suspicion of the EU toward a democracy that better connects with people in the localities where they live.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    John_M said:

    You're at your worst when you try and score Internet points. I don't want to write treatises and couch and caveat my language on here. However, let me expand.

    It will be a political failure of the first magnitude if we Brexit with no deal. Will it affect me? Not in the slightest. Does that make me sanguine? No. Would I vote for Brexit again. Yes. WIll you remain puzzled by me? Who knows.
    I'm just intrigued at the thought process but if you say you will be untouched then it explains a lot. You are certainly in good company; I'm not sure many of the prominent Brexiters will be much affected personally. JRM springs to mind.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    One suggestion I've seen.

    Have a referendum on having a referendum.
    First have a referendum on a referendum.

    Then have a referendum on what question to ask.

    Then hold the actual referendum.

    Then have a vote on whether to accept the result.

    Any multiple option plebiscites to be conducted under AV.

    Will @TSE's keyboard be able to take the strain?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    edited December 2018
    SeanT said:

    True, but that is surely just a function of the fact that so many countries have handed so much autonomous power to an unelected eurocracy in Brussels. In things like trade negotiations, this autonomy is a huge advantage, they have economies of scale, vast experience, and don't have to answer, directly, to any voter. As Brexit is, in essence, one huge trade negotiation, they have proved, predictably, to be much better than us. This is what they do all day, for us it is a sudden shock, a one-off.

    The trouble is when you look at the EU states - i.e. the real people - they are in a right old mess. France is in a state of emergency, Italy is rebelling, Germany's economy is shrinking, the East is in open war with Brussels, Greece is basically dead, and yet Brussels sails imperiously on. It is not an advert for the EU, it is arguably the opposite.

    Point of detail but "Germany's economy is shrinking"? Really? Do you have a link for that?

    While I'm at it "Greece is dead"? Er...
    https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/greece
    "The labor market’s revival continued in August, with the unemployment rate hitting a new seven-year low. Retail sales also grew strongly in the month, which bodes well for private consumption in Q3. "
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    justin124 said:

    I believe you have admitted to being of that ilk yourself in the past.
    Kill off these ilk and many of our problems would be solved.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2018
    justin124 said:



    What is so outrageous about seeking to restore constitutional arrangements to how they existed for generations until twenty years ago?

    I think the figure is about 7%
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018

    Let me say this. At my age no deal will not bother me personally. Only this year my wife and I accepted we will never fly again so that does not bother us. We will not travel to Europe either.

    Over the last ten years we have travelled to all the corners of the planet, filled our bucket lists over several times, and are blessed with our own home and pension and security

    But, I have a responsibility to fight for my families and my grandchildrens future and a country that is at ease with itself and its neighbours

    This is my argument explained politely to you
    Fine, but that’s a totally different argument. We all have personal reasons for voting as we did. Mine are substantially the same as yours, except that I my wife and I will travel to Europe again. I simply came to a different conclusion and have seen no reason to change it - despite the best endeavours of politicians on both sides of the debate.

    Yours are fine but no reason to trot out your habitual garbage about panic if the actual outcome. doesn’t go my way.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155

    Let me say this. At my age no deal will not bother me personally. Only this year my wife and I accepted we will never fly again so that does not bother us. We will not travel to Europe either.

    Over the last ten years we have travelled to all the corners of the planet, filled our bucket lists over several times, and are blessed with our own home and pension and security

    But, I have a responsibility to fight for my families and my grandchildrens future and a country that is at ease with itself and its neighbours

    This is my argument explained politely to you
    And well said too, sir!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    IanB2 said:

    Kill off these ilk and many of our problems would be solved.

    That's almost as bad as Justin's comments on hoping Theresa May becomes blind or Jeremy Corbyn gets blown up.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394
    If, effectively the half of our Army which isn't overseas for one reason or another is engaged on coping with No Deal, isn't that a good moment for the Spanish to try to take over Gibraltar?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    Point of detail but "Germany's economy is shrinking"? Really? Do you have a link for that?

    While I'm at it "Greece is dead"? Er...
    https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/greece
    "The labor market’s revival continued in August, with the unemployment rate hitting a new seven-year low. Retail sales also grew strongly in the month, which bodes well for private consumption in Q3. "
    What does a Grecian urn?

    More than in the last few years, it would seem.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Point of detail but "Germany's economy is shrinking"? Really? Do you have a link for that?

    -0.2% last quarter. Probably a one-off, but the trend in Europe isn't good regardless:

    https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Point of detail but "Germany's economy is shrinking"? Really? Do you have a link for that?

    While I'm at it "Greece is dead"? Er...
    https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/greece
    "The labor market’s revival continued in August, with the unemployment rate hitting a new seven-year low. Retail sales also grew strongly in the month, which bodes well for private consumption in Q3. "
    Per the FT:

    https://www.ft.com/content/866f601e-02a3-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1

    Germany's economy shrank in Q3.

    http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/greece-economic-forecast-summary.htm

    Greek incomes should recover to 2011 levels sometime in the late 2020s, but it's no longer a complete basket case.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    If, effectively the half of our Army which isn't overseas for one reason or another is engaged on coping with No Deal, isn't that a good moment for the Spanish to try to take over Gibraltar?

    You don't think that it would be slightly unwise of the EU to actually start a physical war at a moment when trade's disrupted anyway and we're all mad at them, plus all our politicians are looking for a Thatcher moment?

    I mean, you can't see how that might go just a tiny bit wrong?
  • NEW THREAD

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    ydoethur said:

    You don't think that it would be slightly unwise of the EU to actually start a physical war at a moment when trade's disrupted anyway and we're all mad at them, plus all our politicians are looking for a Thatcher moment?

    I mean, you can't see how that might go just a tiny bit wrong?
    Good point. Perhaps Argentina can step up.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Donny43 said:

    The countries can't. The ECJ can.
    They have made their judgement, here it is:

    "Article 50 TEU must be interpreted as meaning that, where a Member State has notified the European Council, in accordance with that article, of its intention to withdraw from the European Union, that article allows that Member State — for as long as a withdrawal agreement concluded between that Member State and the European Union has not entered into force or, if no such agreement has been concluded, for as long as the two-year period laid down in Article 50(3) TEU, possibly extended in accordance with that paragraph, has not expired — to revoke that notification unilaterally, in an unequivocal and unconditional manner, by a notice addressed to the European Council in writing, after the Member State concerned has taken the revocation decision in accordance with its constitutional requirements. The purpose of that revocation is to confirm the EU membership of the Member State concerned under terms that are unchanged as regards its status as a Member State, and that revocation brings the withdrawal procedure to an end."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    @ Andrew and Donny43

    :-)

    Ok I will rephrase.

    Unless parliament are prepared to look SO ridiculous that every time an MP ventures out in public, people point at them and laugh.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    ydoethur said:

    That's almost as bad as Justin's comments on hoping Theresa May becomes blind or Jeremy Corbyn gets blown up.
    I mean ilk generically, not anyone in particular. Besides, has anyone actually ever seen one of these ilk? They always seem to be in the shadows behind everything that is bad.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TOPPING said:

    I'm just intrigued at the thought process but if you say you will be untouched then it explains a lot. You are certainly in good company; I'm not sure many of the prominent Brexiters will be much affected personally. JRM springs to mind.
    I'm in my late 50s. It'd be a bit sad if I hadn't achieved some measure of financial security, though obvs not in JRM's class.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    kinabalu said:

    @ Andrew and Donny43

    :-)

    Ok I will rephrase.

    Unless parliament are prepared to look SO ridiculous that every time an MP ventures out in public, people point at them and laugh.

    I refer the honourable member to the reply I gave some moments ago...
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    They have made their judgement, here it is:

    "Article 50 TEU must be interpreted as meaning that, where a Member State has notified the European Council, in accordance with that article, of its intention to withdraw from the European Union, that article allows that Member State — for as long as a withdrawal agreement concluded between that Member State and the European Union has not entered into force or, if no such agreement has been concluded, for as long as the two-year period laid down in Article 50(3) TEU, possibly extended in accordance with that paragraph, has not expired — to revoke that notification unilaterally, in an unequivocal and unconditional manner, by a notice addressed to the European Council in writing, after the Member State concerned has taken the revocation decision in accordance with its constitutional requirements. The purpose of that revocation is to confirm the EU membership of the Member State concerned under terms that are unchanged as regards its status as a Member State, and that revocation brings the withdrawal procedure to an end."
    Yes, and who judges if it is "unequivocal and unconditional"? The ECJ.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Let’s not forget the other key difference between Catalonia and Scotland. Catalonia is a net contributor to the Spanish treasury.

    Remind me, what was Scotland’s GERS deficit per the latest figures?
    The Yoons - What a blessing it is for Scotland to be under the fiscal and economic stewardship of the UK.

    Also the Yoons - Indy Scotland would be Greece on the North Sea, it's a basket case.

    Something's gotta give.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    IanB2 said:

    I mean ilk generically, not anyone in particular. Besides, has anyone actually ever seen one of these ilk? They always seem to be in the shadows behind everything that is bad.
    In a sense, that's worse. Instead of advocating murder, you're advocating genocide.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    That's almost as bad as Justin's comments on hoping Theresa May becomes blind or Jeremy Corbyn gets blown up.
    With respect I never suggested that at all. Tony Blair is the only UK leader to deserve such a fate were it to befall him - though I would prefer to see him put on trial at The Hague following the example of Milosevic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    justin124 said:

    With respect I never suggested that at all. Tony Blair is the only UK leader to deserve such a fate were it to befall him - though I would prefer to see him put on trial at The Hague following the example of Milosevic.
    Which one are you referring to? You've admitted the Second on the last thread and the first - I remember that vividly.

    Lie to yourself if you must. Don't lie to me.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,147
    IanB2 said:

    I studied revolutions for a term at university; Corbyn has been interested in them for a lifetime and surely knows the key point that the established order only collapses after a serious crisis affecting the wellbeing of ordinary citizens (normally the middle classes, rather than the peasants as you might think).
    Revolutions occur not when the peasants starve but when the lawyers do.
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