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https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1075001513435635712
Blimey, I read this and thought: things are getting really serious if we're going to have to hold the COBRA meetings on the other side of the Atlantic!
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On the first day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/10750581220442030080 -
Or naughty Mr. Milne who probably holds similar views on the EU to John Redwood.IanB2 said:
Using that card even once nullifies the loophole he is using to avoid the terms of his Conference motion. Naughty Mr Corbyn, who once used to take Conference so seriously.Benpointer said:
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Oh, I feel so fucking reassured. I can't wait. Everything will be fine then. My Irish mist is really beginning to come down!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
On the first day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/10750581220442030080 -
If someone in the Lords is acceptable, then anyone can be ennobled in a matter of minutes.Benpointer said:
Surely it would have to be someone who is in the HoC or at the very outside, the HoL?david_herdson said:
This isn't completely stupid at 250/1 (or even 100/1).Scott_P said:
Cameron might well be asked to mind the shop if:
(1) a vacancy arose at no notice;
(2) a HoC VoNC propelled May out of office, Corbyn tried to form a govt but lost a HoC vote too, and someone was required to head the government during the ensuing election, who hadn't just been No Confidenced by the House.
I appreciate that scenario (2) is unorthodox but I'm not sure we fully appreciate the dynamics of the FTPA yet. Previously, if a govt loses a VoNC then it either resigns immediately or goes to the country immediately. That no longer applies. The two-week period effectively makes for a game of pass-the-parcel. Would it be right that whoever was the last to try to form a government and failed to do so got to hold on in office for the general election? My guess is that it wouldn't be - that they too should resign as the previous government had. In that situation, it might well be appropriate to call on an experienced politician who is out of current front-line politics to head things up on a temporary basis until the GE had clarified matters - and that someone from the party in govt before the VoNC would be the natural choice.
Hague, Cable, Clarke, Beckett all more likely interim candidates imo.
Aside from not being in parliament, Cameron would be far, far too divisive, as would for example Blair or Brown.
There are IMO two realistic scenarios in which someone like Cameron might be needed. The first, as I've mentioned, is in the event of some political crisis that requires someone to act as a temporary PM pending the resolution of the crisis, when all other leading candidates are ruled out for political reasons. I agree that Cameron, in such circumstances might be divisive. However, he'd still be a possibility.
The other is in what we might call the Brighton Bomb scenario, where other current leaders might not be available.
Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.0 -
It is things like this that make me want No Deal Brexit. Queues of lorries, high unemployment and everything completely FUBAR'd, because it seems to be the only way we will ever be free of this Plucky Little Britain Triumphs Again bullsh*t.CarlottaVance said:Again apols if posted before - Another good thread - the 'Tinkerbell theory of Brexit':
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1074634063322013696
All countries have their 'myths' ours of "stood alone"(with a quarter of the planet)is no substitute for rational analysis
Basically, wallowing in nostalgia is no way to improve the future.0 -
I will try to serve selflessly and with all my heart.kinabalu said:
I have 75/25 so I vest leadership of the lean but mean Dealer Faction in you and am delighted to do so.TOPPING said:Ruling out those impossible things I believe our options are:
1) May's deal passes - 85%
2) May's deal doesn't pass, May extends A50, referendum is called Deal vs Remain - 15%
Great betting opportunity because the market has it below 50% never mind 75 or 85.
Except not a great betting opportunity (for me) because I'm maxed out and at odds that are a lot worse than now available. Ah well.0 -
Is the view not that she is vulnerable to a VNOC defeat (because of the DUP) if her 'treasonous' deal is passed rather than if it is defeated?AmpfieldAndy said:There won’t be a general election unless May’s deal is defeated and she loses a VNOC in her Gov. The Tories don’t want to follow May into another GE.
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So how much money are we going to spend on this ‘no deal’ Brexit that should not happen?0
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Yes.. one of the TV highlights in the first week of April after a No Deal will be watching Tory MPs beaming at having delivered What The People Voted For, and wondering why the People in question don't seem very grateful.rottenborough said:
As @seanT would say, we are utterly fucked.AmpfieldAndy said:
There won’t be a general election unless May’s deal is defeated and she loses a VNOC in her Gov. The Tories don’t want to follow May into another GE.MarqueeMark said:
Wake up - May's Deal and No Deal are the only two options her government are considering. You want anything else - force a General Election.IanB2 said:
Against no deal, is what she's saying.CarlottaVance said:As Badenoch points out, currently the only majority in Parliament at the moment is for 'No Deal' - so those wanting Brexit better start thinking.....
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1075005599799279616
And, as a minor side consequence, so will the Tories be. They will be wiped out on a scale that is like Canada when the utter disaster that is no-deal happens in April. No matter how long they put off the GE. No voter will give a hoot, or even remember, that they voted for this: they will be too busy going nuts about job losses, lack of food and basic supplies, byzantine rationing schemes, meds problems, hospitals busting open with the elderly who can't get regular meds etc etc.
Don't forget this lot can't even organize a new railway timetable without chaos. Imagine them rationing food and organizing twenty miles of backed-up lorries full of vital supplies.
I see one of the Cabinet warned others that in the end the massive job losses would include their own voters who would act accordingly.
There will be some very short memories in voter-land if jobs are lost and people go short of meds (or, frankly, have to wait for half an hour at Tesco for a delivery of Petit Filous).0 -
Fair points.david_herdson said:
If someone in the Lords is acceptable, then anyone can be ennobled in a matter of minutes.Benpointer said:
Surely it would have to be someone who is in the HoC or at the very outside, the HoL?david_herdson said:
This isn't completely stupid at 250/1 (or even 100/1).Scott_P said:
Cameron might well be asked to mind the shop if:
(1) a vacancy arose at no notice;
(2) a HoC VoNC propelled May out of office, Corbyn tried to form a govt but lost a HoC vote too, and someone was required to head the government during the ensuing election, who hadn't just been No Confidenced by the House.
I appreciate that scenario (2) is unorthodox but I'm not sure we fully appreciate the dynamics of the FTPA yet. Previously, if a govt loses a VoNC then it either resigns immediately or goes to the country immediately. That no longer applies. The two-week period effectively makes for a game of pass-the-parcel. Would it be right that whoever was the last to try to form a government and failed to do so got to hold on in office for the general election? My guess is that it wouldn't be - that they too should resign as the previous government had. In that situation, it might well be appropriate to call on an experienced politician who is out of current front-line politics to head things up on a temporary basis until the GE had clarified matters - and that someone from the party in govt before the VoNC would be the natural choice.
Hague, Cable, Clarke, Beckett all more likely interim candidates imo.
Aside from not being in parliament, Cameron would be far, far too divisive, as would for example Blair or Brown.
There are IMO two realistic scenarios in which someone like Cameron might be needed. The first, as I've mentioned, is in the event of some political crisis that requires someone to act as a temporary PM pending the resolution of the crisis, when all other leading candidates are ruled out for political reasons. I agree that Cameron, in such circumstances might be divisive. However, he'd still be a possibility.
The other is in what we might call the Brighton Bomb scenario, where other current leaders might not be available.
Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.0 -
They really are going for it.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
I didn't think they had the minerals.0 -
About £3.6bn iirc.Gallowgate said:So how much money are we going to spend on this ‘no deal’ Brexit that should not happen?
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...the thing that annoys me more is that the person who is the default replacement PM is a thick twat of the first order, and he is playing games with the prosperity of the countryrottenborough said:As you can see I am in a foul mood this afternoon.
The mess we are in is off the scale and we are being led by clowns of the highest order.
History will hold these people as effectively wanton criminals who should never have been near office.0 -
Can’t we spend that on the NHS instead ?John_M said:
About £3.6bn iirc.Gallowgate said:So how much money are we going to spend on this ‘no deal’ Brexit that should not happen?
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Reminds me of 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed'Xenon said:
They really are going for it.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
I didn't think they had the minerals.
This is going down to the wire
TM's deal looks more and more like the safety blanket the country needs0 -
Should produce a decent Tory lead in the polls once the pivot to no deal is complete. Rather cruelly for the Lib Dems Labour will also do well as it ensures further polarisation.Xenon said:
They really are going for it.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
I didn't think they had the minerals.0 -
The whole cabinet should be tried for missuse of public funds in my opinion. This could have been done 2 years ago for much cheaper im sure! What a disgrace.John_M said:
About £3.6bn iirc.Gallowgate said:So how much money are we going to spend on this ‘no deal’ Brexit that should not happen?
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Mrs M thinks several moves ahead. She knows there'll be a reaction.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1075022910669156352
Madness. Utter madness.0 -
Poverty too. Always good to see someone embracing non-traditional solutions.TheScreamingEagles said:Hah.
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Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...TheScreamingEagles said:
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/10750581220442030080 -
There was a problem with anthropgenic global warming as I recall.kle4 said:
Poverty too. Always good to see someone embracing non-traditional solutions.TheScreamingEagles said:Hah.
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Whoever we blame for no deal being a real possibility and how much we blame them, it is a very real possibility, it is not madness to prepare for it. Indeed, that they have not prepared because of the backlash they'd get for doing so is part of the madness.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1075022910669156352
Madness. Utter madness.0 -
They're looking like they're going for it.....Xenon said:
They really are going for it.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
I didn't think they had the minerals.
Which may not be quite the same thing......0 -
Careful now, might need a second fag packet.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/10750581220442030080 -
Her Premiership would beg to differ. Things like pulling the MV at the last minute even though it was known for quite some time it would be defeated do not particularly suggest she thinks about more than getting through the next day.IanB2 said:
Mrs M thinks several moves aheadrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1075022910669156352
Madness. Utter madness.
Alternatively yes, she does think several moves ahead, but unfortunately she only does so assuming everyone else will make the moves she wants them to make, and if they do differently she has no real contingency.
As long as I have some sand to put my head in I'll be fine.Foxy said:
Careful now, might need a second fag packet.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/10750581220442030080 -
Which would be even worse.CarlottaVance said:
They're looking like they're going for it.....Xenon said:
They really are going for it.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
I didn't think they had the minerals.
Which may not be quite the same thing......
Firstly playing chicken with Parliament and the country and then spending over £3b in the process. 3 billion pounds for a game of chicken! Madness. Disgraceful.0 -
And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea portsFoxy said:
Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...TheScreamingEagles said:
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire0 -
One of the amusing bright spots of the last few months has been non-Tory Remainers claiming to be May seers.IanB2 said:
Mrs M thinks several moves ahead. She knows there'll be a reaction.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1075022910669156352
Madness. Utter madness.
Us Tories don’t know what she is planning, other than getting through day to day.0 -
On the 9th day of christmas, my true love gave to meBig_G_NorthWales said:Foxy said:
Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...TheScreamingEagles said:
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008Foxy said:
Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...TheScreamingEagles said:
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea portsFoxy said:
Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...TheScreamingEagles said:
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire
9 VAT box obselete, 8 box too !!!0 -
Whatever they want to do now no outcome can be guaranteed. It would be madness to not spend on no deal prep even if they have no intention of going down that route, because the proceedings of parliament might lead to no deal anyway. So no, it is not a disgrace whatever their motivation, since no deal could happen and must be prepared for, motivation is irrelevant.Gallowgate said:
Which would be even worse.CarlottaVance said:
They're looking like they're going for it.....Xenon said:
They really are going for it.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
I didn't think they had the minerals.
Which may not be quite the same thing......
Firstly playing chicken with Parliament and the country and then spending over £3b in the process. 3 billion pounds for a game of chicken! Madness. Disgraceful.0 -
Exactly. They want to squeeze the 'no deal' vote, and it won't drive support for the deal but for Remain.CarlottaVance said:They're looking like they're going for it.....
Which may not be quite the same thing......0 -
They’ll be a long time blocked in Dun Laoghire given the port is long gone.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea portsFoxy said:
Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...TheScreamingEagles said:
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire0 -
Anything short of total end of the world mayhem on Brexit day will be seen as another reason to ignore rejoiners in the future.
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A predictably lively Cabinet meeting today as ministers discussed no-deal planning. Jeremy Hunt said that EU attitudes were hardening because they could see a second referendum coming into view, in part, because of the speculation that people around the Cabinet table were indulging in it. The Foreign Secretary warned that a failure to deliver Brexit would be as devastating for the Tories as the Lib Dems’s failure on tuition fees was to them.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-cabinet-steps-up-planning-for-no-deal/0 -
No deal can be ruled out by revocation of Article 50 as you well know. There is no way we can accidentally fall into ‘no deal’ unless the Government chooses to.kle4 said:
Whatever they want to do now no outcome can be guaranteed. It would be madness to not spend on no deal prep even if they have no intention of going down that route, because the proceedings of parliament might lead to no deal anyway. So no, it is not a disgrace whatever their motivation, since no deal could happen and must be prepared for, motivation is irrelevant.Gallowgate said:
Which would be even worse.CarlottaVance said:
They're looking like they're going for it.....Xenon said:
They really are going for it.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
I didn't think they had the minerals.
Which may not be quite the same thing......
Firstly playing chicken with Parliament and the country and then spending over £3b in the process. 3 billion pounds for a game of chicken! Madness. Disgraceful.
This is nothing more than a misuse of public funds.0 -
Item 1) if your business has any trade with the EU, then prepare P45s for your staffNigel_Foremain said:
Oh, I feel so fucking reassured. I can't wait. Everything will be fine then. My Irish mist is really beginning to come down!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
On the first day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
2) If your business trades with businesses who themselves trade with the EU, then see item 1.0 -
Yes, it might well be. They won't be able to deliver no deal Brexit though, too many in their own ranks will prevent it despite its default status. So they're pretty screwed. Just a question of how long before they have to face the electorate. 3.5 years or less.CarlottaVance said:A predictably lively Cabinet meeting today as ministers discussed no-deal planning. Jeremy Hunt said that EU attitudes were hardening because they could see a second referendum coming into view, in part, because of the speculation that people around the Cabinet table were indulging in it. The Foreign Secretary warned that a failure to deliver Brexit would be as devastating for the Tories as the Lib Dems’s failure on tuition fees was to them.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-cabinet-steps-up-planning-for-no-deal/0 -
No, any significant economic disruption and its the hard Brexiters who will take the hit. But May's plan to force her side to the deal is all coming along nicely.TGOHF said:Anything short of total end of the world mayhem on Brexit day will be seen as another reason to ignore rejoiners in the future.
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No it is not. Revocation can indeed happen but there may not be parliamentary approval to do so. So actually we can fall into no deal. I think people upset that the government is, at last, preparing for a worst case scenario are getting mad at the wrong things. Just hoping that revocation will happen just because it must would be insanely reckless.Gallowgate said:
No deal can be ruled out by revocation of Article 50 as you well know. There is no way we can accidentally fall into ‘no deal’ unless the Government chooses to.kle4 said:
Whatever they want to do now no outcome can be guaranteed. It would be madness to not spend on no deal prep even if they have no intention of going down that route, because the proceedings of parliament might lead to no deal anyway. So no, it is not a disgrace whatever their motivation, since no deal could happen and must be prepared for, motivation is irrelevant.Gallowgate said:
Which would be even worse.CarlottaVance said:
They're looking like they're going for it.....Xenon said:
They really are going for it.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
I didn't think they had the minerals.
Which may not be quite the same thing......
Firstly playing chicken with Parliament and the country and then spending over £3b in the process. 3 billion pounds for a game of chicken! Madness. Disgraceful.
This is nothing more than a misuse of public funds.
As it happens I think we would revoke rather than crash out, but getting mad at the government for at least trying to put in place a contingency? I bet if the worst happens and no deal happens you'd cry foul that they never prepared for it.
We can hope that no deal will not be as bad as people think (though beware anyone trying to dismiss it with mere aphorisms and bland assurances).0 -
Afternoon all
Another day, another instalment of Project Fear and watch how frightened everyone gets as soon as the Army gets mentioned.
Calculated nonsense aimed at panicking frightened people into signing up to May's Deal. All she and her allies have now is fear and they are hoping a couple of weeks of this propaganda will do the job.
There's nothing that can't be arranged or sorted in plenty of time (and would have been if this group of dullards had considered the most elementary contingency planning).
No one is going to starve, run out of medicines or be stopped from going anywhere. A great man once said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Nowadays, the only weapon a bad politician has is fear.0 -
NO DEAL has to look for real in order that it can be avoided.Gallowgate said:
Which would be even worse.CarlottaVance said:
They're looking like they're going for it.....Xenon said:
They really are going for it.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
I didn't think they had the minerals.
Which may not be quite the same thing......
Firstly playing chicken with Parliament and the country and then spending over £3b in the process. 3 billion pounds for a game of chicken! Madness. Disgraceful.0 -
WTF???
BBC now reporting that May is planning series of votes on options before her own.
This after it was reported that she was against this idea in Cabinet, which took place, oh a whole four hours ago.
Is her software being updated on a hourly basis now?0 -
To be fair, the money is not being wasted, it is being used in Keynesian stimulus. Admittedly substantially for wharehouses and fridges, but not wasted.Gallowgate said:
Which would be even worse.CarlottaVance said:
They're looking like they're going for it.....Xenon said:
They really are going for it.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
I didn't think they had the minerals.
Which may not be quite the same thing......
Firstly playing chicken with Parliament and the country and then spending over £3b in the process. 3 billion pounds for a game of chicken! Madness. Disgraceful.0 -
Then we should have had the vote already so we could have found out! Playing a 3.6b game of chicken with Parliament and the country is a misuse of public funds and an utter disgrace.kle4 said:
No it is not. Revocation can indeed happen but there may not be parliamentary approval to do so. So actually we can fall into no deal. I think people upset that the government is, at last, preparing for a worst case scenario are getting mad at the wrong things. Just hoping that revocation will happen just because it must would be insanely reckless.Gallowgate said:
No deal can be ruled out by revocation of Article 50 as you well know. There is no way we can accidentally fall into ‘no deal’ unless the Government chooses to.kle4 said:
Whatever they want to do now no outcome can be guaranteed. It would be madness to not spend on no deal prep even if they have no intention of going down that route, because the proceedings of parliament might lead to no deal anyway. So no, it is not a disgrace whatever their motivation, since no deal could happen and must be prepared for, motivation is irrelevant.Gallowgate said:
Which would be even worse.CarlottaVance said:
They're looking like they're going for it.....Xenon said:
They really are going for it.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
I didn't think they had the minerals.
Which may not be quite the same thing......
Firstly playing chicken with Parliament and the country and then spending over £3b in the process. 3 billion pounds for a game of chicken! Madness. Disgraceful.
This is nothing more than a misuse of public funds.
As it happens I think we would revoke rather than crash out, but getting mad at the government for at least trying to put in place a contingency? I bet if the worst happens and no deal happens you'd cry foul that they never prepared for it.0 -
Yes we should have had the vote, and other votes, before now. That is a disgrace. But given parliament has no majority for anything, that is well known, preparing is still not a disgrace. And it is definitely not a misuse of public funds just because you think it a bad use of public funds.Gallowgate said:
Then we should have had the vote already so we could have found out! Playing a 3.6b game of chicken with Parliament and the country is a misuse of public funds and an utter disgrace.kle4 said:
No it is not. Revocation can indeed happen but there may not be parliamentary approval to do so. So actually we can fall into no deal. I think people upset that the government is, at last, preparing for a worst case scenario are getting mad at the wrong things. Just hoping that revocation will happen just because it must would be insanely reckless.Gallowgate said:
No deal can be ruled out by revocation of Article 50 as you well know. There is no way we can accidentally fall into ‘no deal’ unless the Government chooses to.kle4 said:
Whatever they want to do now no outcome can be guaranteed. It would be madness to not spend on no deal prep even if they have no intention of going down that route, because the proceedings of parliament might lead to no deal anyway. So no, it is not a disgrace whatever their motivation, since no deal could happen and must be prepared for, motivation is irrelevant.Gallowgate said:
Which would be even worse.CarlottaVance said:
They're looking like they're going for it.....Xenon said:
They really are going for it.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
I didn't think they had the minerals.
Which may not be quite the same thing......
Firstly playing chicken with Parliament and the country and then spending over £3b in the process. 3 billion pounds for a game of chicken! Madness. Disgraceful.
This is nothing more than a misuse of public funds.
As it happens I think we would revoke rather than crash out, but getting mad at the government for at least trying to put in place a contingency? I bet if the worst happens and no deal happens you'd cry foul that they never prepared for it.0 -
Probably, but that is not our problem.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea portsFoxy said:
Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...TheScreamingEagles said:
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire0 -
Panic on PB.com as the chances of May's deal passing and remain being consigned to the dustbin of history are rising at pace...
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We need a Supreme Courth ruling on the legal protocol to revoke A50 in domestic law.kle4 said:
No it is not. Revocation can indeed happen but there may not be parliamentary approval to do so. So actually we can fall into no deal. I think people upset that the government is, at last, preparing for a worst case scenario are getting mad at the wrong things. Just hoping that revocation will happen just because it must would be insanely reckless.Gallowgate said:
No deal can be ruled out by revocation of Article 50 as you well know. There is no way we can accidentally fall into ‘no deal’ unless the Government chooses to.kle4 said:
Whatever they want to do now no outcome can be guaranteed. It would be madness to not spend on no deal prep even if they have no intention of going down that route, because the proceedings of parliament might lead to no deal anyway. So no, it is not a disgrace whatever their motivation, since no deal could happen and must be prepared for, motivation is irrelevant.Gallowgate said:
Which would be even worse.CarlottaVance said:
They're looking like they're going for it.....Xenon said:
They really are going for it.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
I didn't think they had the minerals.
Which may not be quite the same thing......
Firstly playing chicken with Parliament and the country and then spending over £3b in the process. 3 billion pounds for a game of chicken! Madness. Disgraceful.
This is nothing more than a misuse of public funds.
As it happens I think we would revoke rather than crash out, but getting mad at the government for at least trying to put in place a contingency? I bet if the worst happens and no deal happens you'd cry foul that they never prepared for it.
We can hope that no deal will not be as bad as people think (though beware anyone trying to dismiss it with mere aphorisms and bland assurances).0 -
How long were the queues at Dover back in 1972 before we joined the EEC?0
-
Yes indeed - given the arguments that would no doubt occur if it is tried.PeterC said:
We need a Supreme Courth ruling on the legal protocol to revoke A50 in domestic law.kle4 said:
No it is not. Revocation can indeed happen but there may not be parliamentary approval to do so. So actually we can fall into no deal. I think people upset that the government is, at last, preparing for a worst case scenario are getting mad at the wrong things. Just hoping that revocation will happen just because it must would be insanely reckless.Gallowgate said:
No deal can be ruled out by revocation of Article 50 as you well know. There is no way we can accidentally fall into ‘no deal’ unless the Government chooses to.kle4 said:
Whatever they want to do now no outcome can be guaranteed. It would be madness to not spend on no deal prep even if they have no intention of going down that route, because the proceedings of parliament might lead to no deal anyway. So no, it is not a disgrace whatever their motivation, since no deal could happen and must be prepared for, motivation is irrelevant.Gallowgate said:
Which would be even worse.CarlottaVance said:
They're looking like they're going for it.....Xenon said:
They really are going for it.CarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
I didn't think they had the minerals.
Which may not be quite the same thing......
Firstly playing chicken with Parliament and the country and then spending over £3b in the process. 3 billion pounds for a game of chicken! Madness. Disgraceful.
This is nothing more than a misuse of public funds.
As it happens I think we would revoke rather than crash out, but getting mad at the government for at least trying to put in place a contingency? I bet if the worst happens and no deal happens you'd cry foul that they never prepared for it.
We can hope that no deal will not be as bad as people think (though beware anyone trying to dismiss it with mere aphorisms and bland assurances).
The chances of it passing are rising? I must have missed that.TGOHF said:Panic on PB.com as the chances of May's deal passing and remain being consigned to the dustbin of history are rising at pace...
0 -
Once again the common man pays for the games of the political class.0
-
It is years since I crossed from Holyhead to Dun Laoghire so I did not know it was now Dublin but the same issue appliesmatt said:
They’ll be a long time blocked in Dun Laoghire given the port is long gone.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea portsFoxy said:
Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...TheScreamingEagles said:
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire0 -
If one believes "No deal" would be a disaster then I reckon the following.
Number of politicians putting the national interest first
i) Not May & the Cabinet - Even Nabavi warns No deal would be a disaster. Failed to reach out over the aisle, now engaged in wanton blackmail.
ii) Not Corbyn, playing games and trying to make the Tories own a hard Brexit.
iii) Not the Lib Dems, not backing the deal.
iv) Not the DUP - Prepared to head to "No deal"
v) Not the bulk of the TOry remainers, prepared to vote down the deal to try and engender a 2nd ref.
vi) Definitely not the ERG !
Politicians putting the national interest first
i) Lady Hermon, Caroline Flint, Stephen Lloyd, Ken Clarke & the SDLP
Politicians putting Scotland's the SNP's interests first
THE SNP
0 -
You seem very confident.stodge said:Afternoon all
Another day, another instalment of Project Fear and watch how frightened everyone gets as soon as the Army gets mentioned.
Calculated nonsense aimed at panicking frightened people into signing up to May's Deal. All she and her allies have now is fear and they are hoping a couple of weeks of this propaganda will do the job.
There's nothing that can't be arranged or sorted in plenty of time (and would have been if this group of dullards had considered the most elementary contingency planning).
No one is going to starve, run out of medicines or be stopped from going anywhere. A great man once said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Nowadays, the only weapon a bad politician has is fear.
I suspect your post will not age well on a No Deal exit.0 -
All this no deal buzz, it makes total sense. To get the deal through TM has to scare the shit out of the remainer opposers. They are a bigger and softer target than the hard brexiters. Bigger because there are a lot more of them and softer because they are not maniacs. So she stamps on 2nd referendum but ramps up no deal. The choice she wants to present is not deal vs 2nd ref (that won't do the business because too many MPs quite like the idea of the 2nd ref) but the pure and diabolical noel edmunds. I thought that the Grieve amendment was supposed to stop her doing this but perhaps she has sussed out that it doesn't. Smart and robust, if so. An appalling carry on, but smart and robust. What a woman.0
-
That was the way the amendments were planned last time. I do not see any changerottenborough said:WTF???
BBC now reporting that May is planning series of votes on options before her own.
This after it was reported that she was against this idea in Cabinet, which took place, oh a whole four hours ago.
Is her software being updated on a hourly basis now?0 -
Blackmailing Parliament, using the fear of ‘no deal’, to accept a sub-par agreement that Parliament does not want?kinabalu said:All this no deal buzz, it makes total sense. To get the deal through TM has to scare the shit out of the remainer opposers. They are a bigger and softer target than the hard brexiters. Bigger because there are a lot more of them and softer because they are not maniacs. So she stamps on 2nd referendum but ramps up no deal. The choice she wants to present is not deal vs 2nd ref (that won't do the business because too many MPs quite like the idea of the 2nd ref) but the pure and diabolical noel edmunds. I thought that the Grieve amendment was supposed to stop her doing this but perhaps she has sussed out that it doesn't. Smart and robust, if so. An appalling carry on, but smart and robust. What a woman.
Yeah, some woman. History will not be kind.0 -
In other news......IFS on the tax changes in the Scottish budget:
https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/10750680530528993310 -
“Reporting” “Reported”. Any actual facts to justify your frenzy?rottenborough said:WTF???
BBC now reporting that May is planning series of votes on options before her own.
This after it was reported that she was against this idea in Cabinet, which took place, oh a whole four hours ago.
Is her software being updated on a hourly basis now?0 -
They were so long that weary travellers would band together to share a tale to pass the time.justin124 said:How long were the queues at Dover back in 1972 before we joined the EEC?
0 -
It is everyone's problem including the EU who will have failed completely. The pressure on governments across the EU will be colossalFoxy said:
Probably, but that is not our problem.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea portsFoxy said:
Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...TheScreamingEagles said:
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire0 -
Oh FFS.justin124 said:How long were the queues at Dover back in 1972 before we joined the EEC?
Trade, modern supply chains, new technology etc etc etc Transformed out of all sight compared to 1972.0 -
Caveats apply but the poll really does show the unique awfulness of Corbyn as Labour leader. Essentially Labour voters are strongly remain. The party has to either be remain or as close to it as practically possible or, as shown the left splits rather as was shown in earlier polls on what would happen if the party split - between liberal social democrats and Corbynite true believers who think Brexit is a price worth paying for radical socialism.
But Corbyn still loses backing remain or BINO. Why? Because he's uniquely awful as a persuader. Labour could win as a party of remain but it would need to do two things. Firstly persuade remain voting Tories and Lib Dem holdouts that it wasn't a threat - your Matthew Parris types who think Brexit is such a bad idea that they'd be prepared to vote Labour. However, Corbyn is unlikely loathed even on the centre-left let alone the centre-right for his hard left connections and the authoritarian nastiness and worse that they entail.
Secondly, win over wavering Brexiteers. This has been the great opportunity cost of the past three years. Firstly, because Corbyn's dislike of the EU and approach to politics makes him unable to passionately advocate for it. He can't tour the country telling factory workers to get behind remain to safeguard their jobs and that staying could create new ones because he thinks the nebulous concept that is neoliberalism is at fault, not Brexit and that his brand of socialism is the only solution that matters. Secondly, he just isn't good at persuading people. Having spoken to political allies all his life and shunned anyone who doesn't fit with his worldview, he lacks the kind of persuasive empathy, that even if faked, can win round those who disagree. Great at comforting those whose suffering fits with his beliefs. As we've seen with anti-Semitism, repulsive to those who believe he's a cause of their suffering.
Oh dear. He got away with it in 2017 thanks to May's awfulness and the large amounts of sceptics who held their nose to vote for the more socially liberal party. Can't see it happening again. Probably why he's holding out for a Brexit cataclysm to sort it all out for him.0 -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46608952matt said:
“Reporting” “Reported”. Any actual facts to justify your frenzy?rottenborough said:WTF???
BBC now reporting that May is planning series of votes on options before her own.
This after it was reported that she was against this idea in Cabinet, which took place, oh a whole four hours ago.
Is her software being updated on a hourly basis now?0 -
Jeremy Hunt is a PM in waiting with the touch of the common man and woman.
https://twitter.com/jeremy_hunt/status/1075069498921750528?s=21
The only question is does he become Tory leader/PM in a coronation or landslide.0 -
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.david_herdson said:Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
0 -
Theresa May is now thought to be in favour of giving MPs a vote on alternatives to her plans when they debate her Brexit deal.rottenborough said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46608952matt said:
“Reporting” “Reported”. Any actual facts to justify your frenzy?rottenborough said:WTF???
BBC now reporting that May is planning series of votes on options before her own.
This after it was reported that she was against this idea in Cabinet, which took place, oh a whole four hours ago.
Is her software being updated on a hourly basis now?
The prime minister was previously thought to be against this idea.
So that's a no, then...!0 -
Perhaps she heard arguments at Cabinet and changed her mind? I thought a big criticism of her was that she didn't listen. Damned if you do...rottenborough said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46608952matt said:
“Reporting” “Reported”. Any actual facts to justify your frenzy?rottenborough said:WTF???
BBC now reporting that May is planning series of votes on options before her own.
This after it was reported that she was against this idea in Cabinet, which took place, oh a whole four hours ago.
Is her software being updated on a hourly basis now?0 -
Err is the BBC not just describing amendments the same that could be made to any bill ?rottenborough said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46608952matt said:
“Reporting” “Reported”. Any actual facts to justify your frenzy?rottenborough said:WTF???
BBC now reporting that May is planning series of votes on options before her own.
This after it was reported that she was against this idea in Cabinet, which took place, oh a whole four hours ago.
Is her software being updated on a hourly basis now?0 -
A slightly pointless question. Firstly, the amount of trade has increased massively in that time. But most importantly, that was a static situation: processes had been in place for decades, if not centuries, slowly evolving. Brexit means a revolution, and one that the processes and systems might not be in place for.justin124 said:How long were the queues at Dover back in 1972 before we joined the EEC?
0 -
A step in the right direction...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Remember that '2nd Ref' is not a Brexit outcome; it's a Brexit mechanism. There's no such thing as Deal vs Ref, the true option is certainty of Deal vs (one of various options delivered via an uncertain and uncontrollable referendum).kinabalu said:All this no deal buzz, it makes total sense. To get the deal through TM has to scare the shit out of the remainer opposers. They are a bigger and softer target than the hard brexiters. Bigger because there are a lot more of them and softer because they are not maniacs. So she stamps on 2nd referendum but ramps up no deal. The choice she wants to present is not deal vs 2nd ref (that won't do the business because too many MPs quite like the idea of the 2nd ref) but the pure and diabolical noel edmunds. I thought that the Grieve amendment was supposed to stop her doing this but perhaps she has sussed out that it doesn't. Smart and robust, if so. An appalling carry on, but smart and robust. What a woman.
0 -
Is this the start of one of those Turkey is joining the EU threads?Tissue_Price said:
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.david_herdson said:Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
0 -
But at the cost of a negative growth rate of 100%.kle4 said:
Poverty too. Always good to see someone embracing non-traditional solutions.TheScreamingEagles said:Hah.
And a full default on intergalactic debt.0 -
Finally, they've found a use for all those old "Protect and Survive" leaflets.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1075022910669156352
Madness. Utter madness.0 -
justin124 said:
How long were the queues at Dover back in 1972 before we joined the EEC?
Post of the day.OblitusSumMe said:
They were so long that weary travellers would band together to share a tale to pass the time.justin124 said:How long were the queues at Dover back in 1972 before we joined the EEC?
0 -
There is still Deal vs Remain in a referendum, though. Think of the way it would be sold. I have negotiated an exit to the EU but parliament cannot agree and therefore I am going to ask you the people to decide.david_herdson said:
Remember that '2nd Ref' is not a Brexit outcome; it's a Brexit mechanism. There's no such thing as Deal vs Ref, the true option is certainty of Deal vs (one of various options delivered via an uncertain and uncontrollable referendum).kinabalu said:All this no deal buzz, it makes total sense. To get the deal through TM has to scare the shit out of the remainer opposers. They are a bigger and softer target than the hard brexiters. Bigger because there are a lot more of them and softer because they are not maniacs. So she stamps on 2nd referendum but ramps up no deal. The choice she wants to present is not deal vs 2nd ref (that won't do the business because too many MPs quite like the idea of the 2nd ref) but the pure and diabolical noel edmunds. I thought that the Grieve amendment was supposed to stop her doing this but perhaps she has sussed out that it doesn't. Smart and robust, if so. An appalling carry on, but smart and robust. What a woman.
Follows a unilateral extension of A50 and done by May (the month, not the Prime Minister).0 -
If the referendum is Deal v Remain (backed by a successful meaningful vote with a people's vote amendment), then it locks down the outcome to either the deal or Remain.david_herdson said:
Remember that '2nd Ref' is not a Brexit outcome; it's a Brexit mechanism. There's no such thing as Deal vs Ref, the true option is certainty of Deal vs (one of various options delivered via an uncertain and uncontrollable referendum).kinabalu said:All this no deal buzz, it makes total sense. To get the deal through TM has to scare the shit out of the remainer opposers. They are a bigger and softer target than the hard brexiters. Bigger because there are a lot more of them and softer because they are not maniacs. So she stamps on 2nd referendum but ramps up no deal. The choice she wants to present is not deal vs 2nd ref (that won't do the business because too many MPs quite like the idea of the 2nd ref) but the pure and diabolical noel edmunds. I thought that the Grieve amendment was supposed to stop her doing this but perhaps she has sussed out that it doesn't. Smart and robust, if so. An appalling carry on, but smart and robust. What a woman.
0 -
A one off correction. Growth figures were steady in the subsequent years.Nigelb said:
But at the cost of a negative growth rate of 100%.kle4 said:
Poverty too. Always good to see someone embracing non-traditional solutions.TheScreamingEagles said:Hah.
And a full default on intergalactic debt.0 -
The chances of it passing are rising? I must have missed that.TGOHF said:Panic on PB.com as the chances of May's deal passing and remain being consigned to the dustbin of history are rising at pace...
What you've missed is that talk of Norway Plus, Canada Plus and of other Starred Unicorns has markedly diminished. People are at last focussing on the genuine options before us, and as they do so, the actual deal available will become more attractive. Whether that's enough is a whole different question.0 -
Exactly right. If it looks like a bluff the remainer opposition in the various parties will hang in there and then she will be forced to cancel brexit via a referendum. If it looks like for real enough of them will cave in and the deal will be passed. The challenge (and it's a big one) is to make it look real even though it must be a bluff, because there is no way that a prime minister of this country will really sanction a chaotic no deal exit from the EU. In other words, yes, in a nutshell, no deal has to look real in order that it can be avoided. See how I can use many sentences to express what could just as well be expressed in one?PeterC said:NO DEAL has to look for real in order that it can be avoided.
0 -
Until plucky little Britain triumphs again.Beverley_C said:
It is things like this that make me want No Deal Brexit. Queues of lorries, high unemployment and everything completely FUBAR'd, because it seems to be the only way we will ever be free of this Plucky Little Britain Triumphs Again bullsh*t.CarlottaVance said:Again apols if posted before - Another good thread - the 'Tinkerbell theory of Brexit':
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1074634063322013696
All countries have their 'myths' ours of "stood alone"(with a quarter of the planet)is no substitute for rational analysis
Basically, wallowing in nostalgia is no way to improve the future.
It's what we do.0 -
0
-
The last three elections have all had results that were surprising.Tissue_Price said:
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.david_herdson said:Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
0 -
What you've missed is that talk of Norway Plus, Canada Plus and of other Starred Unicorns has markedly diminished. People are at last focussing on the genuine options before us, and as they do so, the actual deal available will become more attractive. Whether that's enough is a whole different question.david_herdson said:
The chances of it passing are rising? I must have missed that.TGOHF said:Panic on PB.com as the chances of May's deal passing and remain being consigned to the dustbin of history are rising at pace...
I think every Conservative supporter of Norway Plus said they would back the deal anyway, so there's no net gain for the deal. Narrowing the choices and making it clear how unpalatable no deal is makes a Deal/Remain referendum more credible.0 -
Indeed, and the Lib Dems traded at single figures for Most Seats in 2010.Recidivist said:
The last three elections have all had results that were surprising.Tissue_Price said:
On which note, I would have thought the 250/1 on the Lib Dems winning Most Seats at the next election represents value. There's a fair few steps needed but they're all more than possible.david_herdson said:Bear in mind that in the 73 years since Attlee formed his government, the average PM tenure is about 5 years, so a 250/1 shot implies the sort of thing that happens less than once-a-millennium. Granted that there's much more flux at the moment and a change of PM is more likely that usual but I still think that 250/1 is more than fair.
0 -
We haven't got an Empire we can call on for help now.MarqueeMark said:
Until plucky little Britain triumphs again.Beverley_C said:
It is things like this that make me want No Deal Brexit. Queues of lorries, high unemployment and everything completely FUBAR'd, because it seems to be the only way we will ever be free of this Plucky Little Britain Triumphs Again bullsh*t.CarlottaVance said:Again apols if posted before - Another good thread - the 'Tinkerbell theory of Brexit':
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1074634063322013696
All countries have their 'myths' ours of "stood alone"(with a quarter of the planet)is no substitute for rational analysis
Basically, wallowing in nostalgia is no way to improve the future.
It's what we do.0 -
Nothing like the pressure here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is everyone's problem including the EU who will have failed completely. The pressure on governments across the EU will be colossalFoxy said:
Probably, but that is not our problem.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea portsFoxy said:
Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...TheScreamingEagles said:
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire
After all, Brexit was our choice not theirs.0 -
And at least half the population think that the hardcore Leavers are demented.OldKingCole said:
We haven't got an Empire we can call on for help now.MarqueeMark said:
Until plucky little Britain triumphs again.Beverley_C said:
It is things like this that make me want No Deal Brexit. Queues of lorries, high unemployment and everything completely FUBAR'd, because it seems to be the only way we will ever be free of this Plucky Little Britain Triumphs Again bullsh*t.CarlottaVance said:Again apols if posted before - Another good thread - the 'Tinkerbell theory of Brexit':
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1074634063322013696
All countries have their 'myths' ours of "stood alone"(with a quarter of the planet)is no substitute for rational analysis
Basically, wallowing in nostalgia is no way to improve the future.
It's what we do.0 -
The PM can't unilaterally extend A50 - though for a referendum most people seem to think that the EU would agree to one. Not that I think another referendum is at all likely anyway.TOPPING said:
There is still Deal vs Remain in a referendum, though. Think of the way it would be sold. I have negotiated an exit to the EU but parliament cannot agree and therefore I am going to ask you the people to decide.david_herdson said:
Remember that '2nd Ref' is not a Brexit outcome; it's a Brexit mechanism. There's no such thing as Deal vs Ref, the true option is certainty of Deal vs (one of various options delivered via an uncertain and uncontrollable referendum).kinabalu said:All this no deal buzz, it makes total sense. To get the deal through TM has to scare the shit out of the remainer opposers. They are a bigger and softer target than the hard brexiters. Bigger because there are a lot more of them and softer because they are not maniacs. So she stamps on 2nd referendum but ramps up no deal. The choice she wants to present is not deal vs 2nd ref (that won't do the business because too many MPs quite like the idea of the 2nd ref) but the pure and diabolical noel edmunds. I thought that the Grieve amendment was supposed to stop her doing this but perhaps she has sussed out that it doesn't. Smart and robust, if so. An appalling carry on, but smart and robust. What a woman.
Follows a unilateral extension of A50 and done by May (the month, not the Prime Minister).0 -
I understand that - though technology changes might well bring greater flexiblity rather than imposing restrictions. We also have the Channel Tunnel today which was not available to us in that earlier period. I am not sure the position was as static as suggested - trade had increased greatly in the more than 25 years following World War 2.JosiasJessop said:
A slightly pointless question. Firstly, the amount of trade has increased massively in that time. But most importantly, that was a static situation: processes had been in place for decades, if not centuries, slowly evolving. Brexit means a revolution, and one that the processes and systems might not be in place for.justin124 said:How long were the queues at Dover back in 1972 before we joined the EEC?
0 -
Yes sorry when I mean unilaterally I mean on our side. I think the EU as you say would agree. And neither do I think a referendum is likely. I gave it a 15% chance earlier. But it is possible especially if the move towards Deal acceptance (85%) stalls short of being able to pass in the HoC.david_herdson said:
The PM can't unilaterally extend A50 - though for a referendum most people seem to think that the EU would agree to one. Not that I think another referendum is at all likely anyway.TOPPING said:
There is still Deal vs Remain in a referendum, though. Think of the way it would be sold. I have negotiated an exit to the EU but parliament cannot agree and therefore I am going to ask you the people to decide.david_herdson said:
Remember that '2nd Ref' is not a Brexit outcome; it's a Brexit mechanism. There's no such thing as Deal vs Ref, the true option is certainty of Deal vs (one of various options delivered via an uncertain and uncontrollable referendum).kinabalu said:All this no deal buzz, it makes total sense. To get the deal through TM has to scare the shit out of the remainer opposers. They are a bigger and softer target than the hard brexiters. Bigger because there are a lot more of them and softer because they are not maniacs. So she stamps on 2nd referendum but ramps up no deal. The choice she wants to present is not deal vs 2nd ref (that won't do the business because too many MPs quite like the idea of the 2nd ref) but the pure and diabolical noel edmunds. I thought that the Grieve amendment was supposed to stop her doing this but perhaps she has sussed out that it doesn't. Smart and robust, if so. An appalling carry on, but smart and robust. What a woman.
Follows a unilateral extension of A50 and done by May (the month, not the Prime Minister).
In which case I believe the sequence and referendum question would be as I stated.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Lock him up!0 -
Indeed because we see a positive out of this. They don't.Foxy said:
Nothing like the pressure here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is everyone's problem including the EU who will have failed completely. The pressure on governments across the EU will be colossalFoxy said:
Probably, but that is not our problem.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And for balance, just how will that be any different from across the Irish Sea, The Channel, and North Sea portsFoxy said:
Four waiting Lorries, three customs officers, two portaloos and a riot in the city...TheScreamingEagles said:
On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent meCarlottaVance said:Some Christmas reading.....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1075058122044203008
The EU will be well and truely log jammed and if you think the French are having a go just now, just wait for 20 mile queus at Calais, and the Irish hgv blocked in Dun Laoghaire
After all, Brexit was our choice not theirs.0
