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He doesn't say that it is.Beverley_C said:
The Newman Thread does not explain *why* Revocation is off the table - he just says it is. So it is opinion, nothing more.williamglenn said:FPT
It's counterintuitive but I think falling into line with the deal is a prerequisite for a second referendum. The Brexit option needs to be accepted as legitimate if we're going to have a Deal/Remain vote, otherwise the whole thing will be too easy to discredit.TOPPING said:
Read the Newman thread (it was linked to above/below). The DUP may get the assurances they need. Certainly the direction of travel is encouraging.
There really by any sensible (!) estimation is no alternative to the deal. And people will slowly but surely fall into line with that thinking.0 -
That does not mean it cannot happen, that it is no longer an option. It just means the Govt is not talking about it.CarlottaVance said:
When has the government suggested it is on the table?Beverley_C said:
The Newman Thread does not explain *why* Revocation is off the table - he just says it is. So it is opinion, nothing more.williamglenn said:FPT
It's counterintuitive but I think falling into line with the deal is a prerequisite for a second referendum. The Brexit option needs to be accepted as legitimate if we're going to have a Deal/Remain vote, otherwise the whole thing will be too easy to discredit.TOPPING said:
Read the Newman thread (it was linked to above/below). The DUP may get the assurances they need. Certainly the direction of travel is encouraging.
There really by any sensible (!) estimation is no alternative to the deal. And people will slowly but surely fall into line with that thinking.
Suppose that something crazy happens and a change of leadership / party occurs and the new PM decides to halt the whole thing. What stops them? Nothing. The option is still there and it will be until the last days of March 2019.0 -
I imagine that she and her advisers realised (before many people, although more are now getting there) that her deal is the only possible iteration of leaving while appreciating the unique situation that exists in GB & NI.IanB2 said:Everyone seems to believe Mrs May? And to think people said she was a poor negotiator.
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May has Eurostar tickets. Leavers are adamant they don't want to board the Eurostar so want to take the Ferry instead.david_herdson said:
May has ferry tickets. Unfortunately, the Leavers are insistent that the car has secret Chitty Chitty Bang Bang qualities and can fly.Philip_Thompson said:
It's not remotely embarrassing. Remainer May has been in charge along with Remainer Robbins and has sidelined the Leavers to much glee from yourself.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's nearly as embarrassing as your fantasy about Leo Varadkar being publicly very Pro Scottish Independence.Philip_Thompson said:
If you wanted Leave politicians to take responsibility then Leave politicians should have been made responsible.CarlottaVance said:
Nah. They'll say Remainer May screwed it up.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.grabcocque said:Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.
I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.
They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.
By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
When have these politicians ever accepted responsibility for anything?
When leading Leave advocates have been screaming that Remainer May is doing the wrong thing at the time then it isn't hindsight to blame Remainer May afterwards.
It's like someone suggesting we take a road trip to France, then a driver who didn't want to go to France (May) insists upon driving off the cliffs of Dover and driving across the Channel.
Leavers whose idea it was to take the journey keep saying it is wrong. We've suggested taking the Ferry instead but are being ignored as May keeps driving to the cliff edge.
If despite all the warnings May's incompetence takes us over the cliff then that doesn't mean the journey itself was wrong. We should have taken the Ferry as we suggested.0 -
Au contraire Mr BIanB2 said:
He doesn't say that it is.Beverley_C said:
The Newman Thread does not explain *why* Revocation is off the table - he just says it is. So it is opinion, nothing more.williamglenn said:FPT
It's counterintuitive but I think falling into line with the deal is a prerequisite for a second referendum. The Brexit option needs to be accepted as legitimate if we're going to have a Deal/Remain vote, otherwise the whole thing will be too easy to discredit.TOPPING said:
Read the Newman thread (it was linked to above/below). The DUP may get the assurances they need. Certainly the direction of travel is encouraging.
There really by any sensible (!) estimation is no alternative to the deal. And people will slowly but surely fall into line with that thinking.
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/10746467809382031360 -
A child who has a British parent has the right to British citizenship. And Britain allows dual nationality (unlike some EU countries) so even if they already have Belgian citizenship that is no bar.IanB2 said:
A close friend of mine is British but married a Belgian after leaving university, and they lived there and had three children. She's now back in Scotland with the children (as is he) but they are separated and she is trying to sort out the position of her children. She tells me that so far one has been given a British passport, one granted indefinite leave to stay on her Belgian passport, and the other is still waiting to hear. Real people, real lives.DavidL said:
It would be entirely a matter for us. We have said that they all have leave to remain, work, use the Health Service and claim benefits. If any member of the EU did not reciprocate, of course, that might change for that nationality.Xenon said:Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?
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Even so, so many predictions have been made along the lines of supermarkets running out of food, planes being grounded, hospitals running out of medicines, that if the impact is simply bad, as opposed to catastrophic, a lot of people will view the warnings with disbelief.williamglenn said:
Does your version of 'no deal' not involve WTO tariffs applying on day one? I'm not sure how you arrive at a version of 'no deal' where the impact is long term, not short term.Sean_F said:
People will probably double down on the views which they already hold.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do, one thing apparently Gove is admitting privately is that one of the unintended consequences of Brexit is that it has created a pro European movement in the UK where none existed before.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Do you really think so TSE, this will end the Eurosceptic movement like the referendum did.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.grabcocque said:Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.
I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.
They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.
By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
We are already seeing a stab-in-the-back myth developing.
It is hard to see several hundred thousand people marching in London in favour of the EU if Remain had won.
Leave are the establishment now.
Every bad thing that happens in the UK for the next few years is going to be blamed on Brexit, even the next cyclical recession.
If steps are taken on both sides to mitigate the impact of No Deal (as seems likely) then the economy won't fall off a cliff on 30th March. The impact in the longer term might well be serious, but if there is no sudden crash, a lot of people will just conclude that it was another case of crying wolf.0 -
You have read it too quickly and skipped over the word "Brexit"Beverley_C said:
Au contraire Mr BIanB2 said:
He doesn't say that it is.Beverley_C said:
The Newman Thread does not explain *why* Revocation is off the table - he just says it is. So it is opinion, nothing more.williamglenn said:FPT
It's counterintuitive but I think falling into line with the deal is a prerequisite for a second referendum. The Brexit option needs to be accepted as legitimate if we're going to have a Deal/Remain vote, otherwise the whole thing will be too easy to discredit.TOPPING said:
Read the Newman thread (it was linked to above/below). The DUP may get the assurances they need. Certainly the direction of travel is encouraging.
There really by any sensible (!) estimation is no alternative to the deal. And people will slowly but surely fall into line with that thinking.
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/10746467809382031360 -
Given the way the Home Office works, it is a very good idea to get all the paperwork sorted. Look at the Windrush debacle...CarlottaVance said:
A child who has a British parent has the right to British citizenship. And Britain allows dual nationality (unlike some EU countries) so even if they already have Belgian citizenship that is no bar.IanB2 said:
A close friend of mine is British but married a Belgian after leaving university, and they lived there and had three children. She's now back in Scotland with the children (as is he) but they are separated and she is trying to sort out the position of her children. She tells me that so far one has been given a British passport, one granted indefinite leave to stay on her Belgian passport, and the other is still waiting to hear. Real people, real lives.DavidL said:
It would be entirely a matter for us. We have said that they all have leave to remain, work, use the Health Service and claim benefits. If any member of the EU did not reciprocate, of course, that might change for that nationality.Xenon said:Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?
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Hopefully it'll end up like that, but she is clearly being put through the hoops to get there.CarlottaVance said:
A child who has a British parent has the right to British citizenship. And Britain allows dual nationality (unlike some EU countries) so even if they already have Belgian citizenship that is no bar.IanB2 said:
A close friend of mine is British but married a Belgian after leaving university, and they lived there and had three children. She's now back in Scotland with the children (as is he) but they are separated and she is trying to sort out the position of her children. She tells me that so far one has been given a British passport, one granted indefinite leave to stay on her Belgian passport, and the other is still waiting to hear. Real people, real lives.DavidL said:
It would be entirely a matter for us. We have said that they all have leave to remain, work, use the Health Service and claim benefits. If any member of the EU did not reciprocate, of course, that might change for that nationality.Xenon said:Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?
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Brexit: not quite as bad as HitlerSeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
They should have put that on the side of bus.0 -
One reason I would take this poll with a grain of salt is that the question states: "..Labour supported going ahead with Brexit.."
It posits a scenario in which there is a single, united, Labour policy. It doesn't ask: "..Jeremy Corbyn supported going ahead with Brexit while a majority of Labour MPs, possibly including your local candidate, supported a public vote.."
There's an extent to which divisions over Brexit are helpful for a political party, because they make it easier for voters opposed to the leadership Brexit policy to vote for the party.0 -
Looking ahead, the Labour party as a whole is not at this minute in dire trouble but it would be the moment a couple of things happen: It is in dire trouble if it is seen as being the body of opinion that causes Remain to triumph eventually; and it is dire trouble if it has to take responsibility (by forming the government) of what is currently a Tory problem; and it is in dire trouble if they actually had to have a coherent policy about the real world prior to 29th March.
I don't think anyone wants to own this until 30th March at the earliest, which means that with all the huffing and puffing, Labour's best course is to be the opposition party until at least then, and the ensure that TM's government takes responsibility for the problems up to and of 29th March. The safest way to ensure this is by judicious use of abstention and individual rebellion make sure we actually leave on 29th March - and TMs deal is the only show in town to do so without something going pop.
As a VONC on 30th March or after may well get DUP behind Labour and succeed, the best Labour tactic is a no brainer.
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LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international community (bar Sri Lanka of course)!grabcocque said:
Brexit: not quite as bad as HitlerSeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
They should have put that on the side of bus.0 -
You've been bloody miserable, as far as anyone can tell, since 24th June 2016.Scott_P said:
Anyone who says "we have been through worse" without fail means "someone else went through worse"SeanT said:
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz.
Yes, and they were bloody miserable...0 -
Presumably they're just trying to pacify the raving, damp-trousered panicker in their midst.SeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.0 -
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.murali_s said:
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international country (bar Sri Lanka of course)!grabcocque said:
Brexit: not quite as bad as HitlerSeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
They should have put that on the side of bus.0 -
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The issue for No Deal advocates is that whether the warnings are justified or not, they will likely become self-fulfulling since they will provoke shortages through panic-buying, and a recession through a wait-and-see reluctance to spend.Sean_F said:
Even so, so many predictions have been made along the lines of supermarkets running out of food, planes being grounded, hospitals running out of medicines, that if the impact is simply bad, as opposed to catastrophic, a lot of people will view the warnings with disbelief.williamglenn said:
Does your version of 'no deal' not involve WTO tariffs applying on day one? I'm not sure how you arrive at a version of 'no deal' where the impact is long term, not short term.Sean_F said:
People will probably double down on the views which they already hold.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do, one thing apparently Gove is admitting privately is that one of the unintended consequences of Brexit is that it has created a pro European movement in the UK where none existed before.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Do you really think so TSE, this will end the Eurosceptic movement like the referendum did.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.grabcocque said:Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.
I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.
They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.
By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
We are already seeing a stab-in-the-back myth developing.
It is hard to see several hundred thousand people marching in London in favour of the EU if Remain had won.
Leave are the establishment now.
Every bad thing that happens in the UK for the next few years is going to be blamed on Brexit, even the next cyclical recession.
If steps are taken on both sides to mitigate the impact of No Deal (as seems likely) then the economy won't fall off a cliff on 30th March. The impact in the longer term might well be serious, but if there is no sudden crash, a lot of people will just conclude that it was another case of crying wolf.0 -
And to be fair to that Leave voter, no one on the Leave campaigns told them they would be voting for a No Deal Brexit.Scott_P said:0 -
I had friends whose children were born in Paris, when enquiring of the British Embassy whether that affected their nationality were told 'You're British, they're British - makes no difference."IanB2 said:
Hopefully it'll end up like that, but she is clearly being put through the hoops to get there.CarlottaVance said:
A child who has a British parent has the right to British citizenship. And Britain allows dual nationality (unlike some EU countries) so even if they already have Belgian citizenship that is no bar.IanB2 said:
A close friend of mine is British but married a Belgian after leaving university, and they lived there and had three children. She's now back in Scotland with the children (as is he) but they are separated and she is trying to sort out the position of her children. She tells me that so far one has been given a British passport, one granted indefinite leave to stay on her Belgian passport, and the other is still waiting to hear. Real people, real lives.DavidL said:
It would be entirely a matter for us. We have said that they all have leave to remain, work, use the Health Service and claim benefits. If any member of the EU did not reciprocate, of course, that might change for that nationality.Xenon said:Any idea of the status of people living abroad in the rest EU and here in the event of no deal?
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An interesting point. Does the infamous Grieve amendment allow the Commons to pass the WA subject to ratification by referendum?williamglenn said:It's counterintuitive but I think falling into line with the deal is a prerequisite for a second referendum. The Brexit option needs to be accepted as legitimate if we're going to have a Deal/Remain vote, otherwise the whole thing will be too easy to discredit.
Because, yes, to spend weeks trashing it before rejecting it resoundingly in a vote, and then to turn around and toss the poor abused thing to the public versus Remain would be the most utter risible nonsense.
When someone is charged with murder there is a prohibition on the defendant being roasted all over the media in the weeks leading up to the trial. There is a reason for this.0 -
Leaving aside the bickering etc, if we do depart on any sort of terms without a deal, it'll be interesting from a geopolitical perspective. Will it be seen as the start of the end of the EU, or shore up and strengthen the 27 who remain? Will the UK, almost certainly taking at least a short term economic hit, crumble and beg for re-entry, or get through the hard times and, having done so, be determined to make the most of our freedom of action, unconstrained by the EU?
How will the people, the politicians, and the media respond to the situation?
Hmm. It makes me wonder about putting together some sort of book. Perhaps diaries of how events are going and how individuals feel about it, and then putting together the entries to get multiple perspectives on the same events.
As an aside, diary studies of PMS indicated that more women claimed they had it than even self-reported, so keeping notes can be far more accurate than trying to remember (or even confidently, but wrongly, 'remembering') one's perspective.0 -
I like the way "Thatcherite" get used pejoratively. The woman won three general elections, FFS.Scott_P said:0 -
Everything Before the But is Bollocks.Scott_P said:0 -
Because it keeps in his pocket the card of tabling the motion that won't be passed?Scott_P said:0 -
Or possibly in reverse order for Theresa May.Donny43 said:
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.murali_s said:
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international country (bar Sri Lanka of course)!grabcocque said:
Brexit: not quite as bad as HitlerSeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
They should have put that on the side of bus.0 -
We really aren't you know - despite how much you might wish it.murali_s said:
We are the laughing stock of the international community (bar Sri Lanka of course)!grabcocque said:
Brexit: not quite as bad as HitlerSeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
They should have put that on the side of bus.
Yes, TV comedy shows are making fun of us, or more accurately, our politicians (I bet Cameron was dead chuffed to be played by Matt Damon) - but for a mid-rank power we easily surpass our peers in 'soft power'.
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The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.SeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.0 -
It doesn't seem to be:Donny43 said:
Everything Before the But is Bollocks.Scott_P said:
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-eu-referendum-vote-leave-what-next-2018-vindicate-my-decision-a8107901.html
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I am not sure that is trueCarlottaVance said:but for a mid-rank power we easily surpass our peers in 'soft power'.
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This may be true. But, there are still an awful lot who think No Deal means No Change.Sean_F said:
Even so, so many predictions have been made along the lines of supermarkets running out of food, planes being grounded, hospitals running out of medicines, that if the impact is simply bad, as opposed to catastrophic, a lot of people will view the warnings with disbelief.williamglenn said:
Does your version of 'no deal' not involve WTO tariffs applying on day one? I'm not sure how you arrive at a version of 'no deal' where the impact is long term, not short term.Sean_F said:
People will probably double down on the views which they already hold.TheScreamingEagles said:
I do, one thing apparently Gove is admitting privately is that one of the unintended consequences of Brexit is that it has created a pro European movement in the UK where none existed before.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Do you really think so TSE, this will end the Eurosceptic movement like the referendum did.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm also looking forward to the destruction of the UK's Eurosceptic movement.grabcocque said:Guys, I am unreasonably excited in No Deal.
I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.
They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.
By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
We are already seeing a stab-in-the-back myth developing.
It is hard to see several hundred thousand people marching in London in favour of the EU if Remain had won.
Leave are the establishment now.
Every bad thing that happens in the UK for the next few years is going to be blamed on Brexit, even the next cyclical recession.
If steps are taken on both sides to mitigate the impact of No Deal (as seems likely) then the economy won't fall off a cliff on 30th March. The impact in the longer term might well be serious, but if there is no sudden crash, a lot of people will just conclude that it was another case of crying wolf.0 -
Yep - although in his case it's usually his own side dishing it out.CarlottaVance said:0 -
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Mr. Pointer, things can vary quite quickly.
The Empire went from "Kiss me Hardy" and Nelson's emotive approach to the Iron Duke in just a few years.0 -
The "EU is collapsing" narrative is strongly felt among Brexiteers but pretty much absent elsewhere IMO (I note that this narrative has been spun since at least 2010 that I can remember, with the word Grexit being the forerunner to "Brexit").Morris_Dancer said:Leaving aside the bickering etc, if we do depart on any sort of terms without a deal, it'll be interesting from a geopolitical perspective. Will it be seen as the start of the end of the EU, or shore up and strengthen the 27 who remain? Will the UK, almost certainly taking at least a short term economic hit, crumble and beg for re-entry, or get through the hard times and, having done so, be determined to make the most of our freedom of action, unconstrained by the EU?
How will the people, the politicians, and the media respond to the situation?
Hmm. It makes me wonder about putting together some sort of book. Perhaps diaries of how events are going and how individuals feel about it, and then putting together the entries to get multiple perspectives on the same events.
As an aside, diary studies of PMS indicated that more women claimed they had it than even self-reported, so keeping notes can be far more accurate than trying to remember (or even confidently, but wrongly, 'remembering') one's perspective.
I expect it will be seen as part of a nationalist, anti-globalisation backlash to the liberal consensus of the 2000s and early 2010s, but ultimately EU or not Brussels will always have a big influence on our policies.
Leaving aside that I'm vehemently opposed to a No Deal exit happening, there is a sort of morbid curiosity to see what happens when we stress test our economy and governmental institutions. Probably the same thing that drove me to try to format our family computer's hard drive growing up.
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The great KFC shortage. Or more temporally appropriate, the panic buying because food shops may (not will) be shut on 25 December.Benpointer said:
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.SeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
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As Badenoch points out, currently the only majority in Parliament at the moment is for 'No Deal' - so those wanting Brexit better start thinking.....
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/10750055997992796160 -
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I think 52% will be able to cope without soiling themselves.Benpointer said:
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.SeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.0 -
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I think, though, he's one failed confidence vote away from having to support a referendum. And Corbyn doesn't want to do that.Benpointer said:0 -
https://softpower30.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/The-Soft-Power-30-Report-2018.pdfScott_P said:
I am not sure that is trueCarlottaVance said:but for a mid-rank power we easily surpass our peers in 'soft power'.
UK: 1
France: 2
Germany: 3
US: 4
Japan: 50 -
The result of the YouGov poll isn't surprising. The LibDems are the only GB-wide party with more than one MP that could write a proper policy on Brexit in their manifesto that they could get behind as a party. They are also the only one which can say which option they want voters to support in another referendum.0
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Mr Dancer: If you've ever read anything about the Royal Navy in Nelson's time (as I suspect you have) you will know that it doesn't stand well as an expample of a lack of stoicism.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pointer, things can vary quite quickly.
The Empire went from "Kiss me Hardy" and Nelson's emotive approach to the Iron Duke in just a few years.
Those men who fought in Nelson's navy endured incredible hardships, risks and stress, the like of which we would not readily accept today. I don't think there was much difference in resliences between Nelson's navy and Wellington's army.0 -
Against no deal, is what she's saying.CarlottaVance said:As Badenoch points out, currently the only majority in Parliament at the moment is for 'No Deal' - so those wanting Brexit better start thinking.....
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/10750055997992796160 -
Yes, that does seem to accurately sum up the progress to a #peoplesvoteDonny43 said:
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.murali_s said:
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international country (bar Sri Lanka of course)!grabcocque said:
Brexit: not quite as bad as HitlerSeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
They should have put that on the side of bus.
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Yes, it took 22 years from the founding of the Referendum Party to the People's Vote.Foxy said:
Yes, that does seem to accurately sum up the progress to a #peoplesvoteDonny43 said:
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.murali_s said:
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international country (bar Sri Lanka of course)!grabcocque said:
Brexit: not quite as bad as HitlerSeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
They should have put that on the side of bus.0 -
Using that card even once nullifies the loophole he is using to avoid the terms of his Conference motion. Naughty Mr Corbyn, who once used to take Conference so seriously.Benpointer said:0 -
Never going to happen, but I got on at 300-1 a month ago. Eh, it's only £2 I'll never get back.Scott_P said:
Indeed. It is a tricky tightrope for Labour to walk, and it could backfire, but at the moment the free for all is working for them.OblitusSumMe said:One reason I would take this poll with a grain of salt is that the question states: "..Labour supported going ahead with Brexit.."
It posits a scenario in which there is a single, united, Labour policy. It doesn't ask: "..Jeremy Corbyn supported going ahead with Brexit while a majority of Labour MPs, possibly including your local candidate, supported a public vote.."
There's an extent to which divisions over Brexit are helpful for a political party, because they make it easier for voters opposed to the leadership Brexit policy to vote for the party.0 -
Bang.algarkirk said:I don't think anyone wants to own this until 30th March at the earliest, which means that with all the huffing and puffing, Labour's best course is to be the opposition party until at least then, and the ensure that TM's government takes responsibility for the problems up to and of 29th March. The safest way to ensure this is by judicious use of abstention and individual rebellion make sure we actually leave on 29th March - and TMs deal is the only show in town to do so without something going pop.
Or +1 rather.
Labour are key to this. Ok yes I know, the DUP are key too, and so are the ERG, and the PV faction, they are all key to this. But Labour are the keyest.0 -
http://lessonsforoldpeople.blogspot.com/2014/01/vocabulary-lesson-hashtag.htmlFoxy said:
Yes, that does seem to accurately sum up the progress to a #peoplesvoteDonny43 said:
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.murali_s said:
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international country (bar Sri Lanka of course)!grabcocque said:
Brexit: not quite as bad as HitlerSeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
They should have put that on the side of bus.
0 -
Wake up - May's Deal and No Deal are the only two options her government are considering. You want anything else - force a General Election.IanB2 said:
Against no deal, is what she's saying.CarlottaVance said:As Badenoch points out, currently the only majority in Parliament at the moment is for 'No Deal' - so those wanting Brexit better start thinking.....
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/10750055997992796160 -
Yes but if born outside of Britain with a British citizen as their parent they will have British citizenship by descent and will not be able automatically to pass it to their own children, unlike if they were born to a British parent in Britain.CarlottaVance said:A child who has a British parent has the right to British citizenship
0 -
NAM Rogers in his excellent history of the Royal Navy "Command of the Ocean" points out that RN sailors in the age of sail had lower death rates than their civilian counterparts, despite the obvious hardships.Benpointer said:
Mr Dancer: If you've ever read anything about the Royal Navy in Nelson's time (as I suspect you have) you will know that it doesn't stand well as an expample of a lack of stoicism.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pointer, things can vary quite quickly.
The Empire went from "Kiss me Hardy" and Nelson's emotive approach to the Iron Duke in just a few years.
Those men who fought in Nelson's navy endured incredible hardships, risks and stress, the like of which we would not readily accept today. I don't think there was much difference in resliences between Nelson's navy and Wellington's army.
0 -
More relevantly, why are we to judge ourselves, or other nations, based on people laughing at us/them during periods of difficult politics? No one likes being laughed at, but everyone goes through difficult times, there's no need to cry about it or act as though the fact others find amusement at your difficult situation is in itself something that is of much relevance.CarlottaVance said:
https://softpower30.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/The-Soft-Power-30-Report-2018.pdfScott_P said:
I am not sure that is trueCarlottaVance said:but for a mid-rank power we easily surpass our peers in 'soft power'.
UK: 1
France: 2
Germany: 3
US: 4
Japan: 50 -
If they naturalise as a British citizen they will - but yes, its a watch out for the children of children born abroad.Oort said:
Yes but if born outside of Britain with a British citizen as their parent they will have British citizenship by descent and will not be able automatically to pass it to their own children, unlike if they were born to a British parent in Britain.CarlottaVance said:A child who has a British parent has the right to British citizenship
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Remainers are much better organised, getting there in less than 2 yearsDonny43 said:
Yes, it took 22 years from the founding of the Referendum Party to the People's Vote.Foxy said:
Yes, that does seem to accurately sum up the progress to a #peoplesvoteDonny43 said:
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.murali_s said:
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international country (bar Sri Lanka of course)!grabcocque said:
Brexit: not quite as bad as HitlerSeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
They should have put that on the side of bus. 0 -
You wake up - I was simply correcting the incorrect statement in CV's post, as is clearly stated in the article.MarqueeMark said:
Wake up - May's Deal and No Deal are the only two options her government are considering. You want anything else - force a General Election.IanB2 said:
Against no deal, is what she's saying.CarlottaVance said:As Badenoch points out, currently the only majority in Parliament at the moment is for 'No Deal' - so those wanting Brexit better start thinking.....
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/10750055997992796160 -
If punters have a few £ to waste on that one, they'd do better to give it to a homeless charity, especially at this time of year.Scott_P said:0 -
IanB2 said:
Against no deal, is what she's saying.CarlottaVance said:As Badenoch points out, currently the only majority in Parliament at the moment is for 'No Deal' - so those wanting Brexit better start thinking.....
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1075005599799279616
She writes she supports the Deal.....0 -
This isn't completely stupid at 250/1 (or even 100/1).Scott_P said:
Cameron might well be asked to mind the shop if:
(1) a vacancy arose at no notice;
(2) a HoC VoNC propelled May out of office, Corbyn tried to form a govt but lost a HoC vote too, and someone was required to head the government during the ensuing election, who hadn't just been No Confidenced by the House.
I appreciate that scenario (2) is unorthodox but I'm not sure we fully appreciate the dynamics of the FTPA yet. Previously, if a govt loses a VoNC then it either resigns immediately or goes to the country immediately. That no longer applies. The two-week period effectively makes for a game of pass-the-parcel. Would it be right that whoever was the last to try to form a government and failed to do so got to hold on in office for the general election? My guess is that it wouldn't be - that they too should resign as the previous government had. In that situation, it might well be appropriate to call on an experienced politician who is out of current front-line politics to head things up on a temporary basis until the GE had clarified matters - and that someone from the party in govt before the VoNC would be the natural choice.0 -
Funny you should mention Peoples Vote and Progress in the same sentenceFoxy said:
Yes, that does seem to accurately sum up the progress to a #peoplesvoteDonny43 said:
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.murali_s said:
LOL - it just shows the sheer ignorance of many Leavers. We are the laughing stock of the international country (bar Sri Lanka of course)!grabcocque said:
Brexit: not quite as bad as HitlerSeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sang froid.
They should have put that on the side of bus.0 -
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.Benpointer said:
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.SeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.0 -
Anyone who so wishes can still back David Cameron for next Conservative leader at 360 on Betfair and 350 for next Prime Minister.0
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Mr. Freggles, losing one of the two largest military powers, and the second largest net contributor, and the financial capital of Europe, is more than a theoretical change, though.0
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Surely it would have to be someone who is in the HoC or at the very outside, the HoL?david_herdson said:
This isn't completely stupid at 250/1 (or even 100/1).Scott_P said:
Cameron might well be asked to mind the shop if:
(1) a vacancy arose at no notice;
(2) a HoC VoNC propelled May out of office, Corbyn tried to form a govt but lost a HoC vote too, and someone was required to head the government during the ensuing election, who hadn't just been No Confidenced by the House.
I appreciate that scenario (2) is unorthodox but I'm not sure we fully appreciate the dynamics of the FTPA yet. Previously, if a govt loses a VoNC then it either resigns immediately or goes to the country immediately. That no longer applies. The two-week period effectively makes for a game of pass-the-parcel. Would it be right that whoever was the last to try to form a government and failed to do so got to hold on in office for the general election? My guess is that it wouldn't be - that they too should resign as the previous government had. In that situation, it might well be appropriate to call on an experienced politician who is out of current front-line politics to head things up on a temporary basis until the GE had clarified matters - and that someone from the party in govt before the VoNC would be the natural choice.
Hague, Cable, Clarke, Beckett all more likely interim candidates imo.
Aside from not being in parliament, Cameron would be far, far too divisive, as would for example Blair or Brown.0 -
As someone who used to work in HR in a very large company, our experience was that whenever reservists were called up, we had a flood of requests for managers to sign forms for the relevant employees confirming that they were engaged in vital work and couldn't be released. Admittedly those were being sent into the desert; whether there will be similar reluctance to serve holding back crowds of starving Uk citizens remains to be seen....Scott_P said:0 -
The 3rd largest net contributor actually:Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Freggles, losing one of the two largest military powers, and the second largest net contributor, and the financial capital of Europe, is more than a theoretical change, though.
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-one-biggest-contributors-eu-budget/0 -
Yes, I know. Your claim was that she points out that the only majority is FOR no deal. I am pointing out that she actually says the only majority is AGAINST no deal. Read the second last para again.CarlottaVance said:IanB2 said:
Against no deal, is what she's saying.CarlottaVance said:As Badenoch points out, currently the only majority in Parliament at the moment is for 'No Deal' - so those wanting Brexit better start thinking.....
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1075005599799279616
She writes she supports the Deal.....
My, this is hard work today.0 -
I am always quite sceptical of polls since May lost her 20% lead in the last election. Hopefully her successor won’t be such a duffer. Labour will do better I think simply because Corbyn, for all his many faults, is a good campaigner. There is also a very long time (in political terms) between now and the next election - assuming May doesn’t crash to a VNOC which looks unlikely given Labour’s almighty cock up last night.
The LibDems have got absolutely nothing going for them.0 -
AlastairMeeks said:
Anyone who so wishes can still back David Cameron for next Conservative leader at 360 on Betfair and 350 for next Prime Minister.
He was awful last time and has spent his time since doing nothing. Even the Tories aren’t that stupid.0 -
Deleted - Carlotta's just proved me wrongIanB2 said:
Yes, I know. Your claim was that she points out that the only majority is FOR no deal. I am pointing out that she actually says the only majority is AGAINST no deal. Read the second last para again.CarlottaVance said:IanB2 said:
Against no deal, is what she's saying.CarlottaVance said:As Badenoch points out, currently the only majority in Parliament at the moment is for 'No Deal' - so those wanting Brexit better start thinking.....
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1075005599799279616
She writes she supports the Deal.....
My, this is hard work today.
0 -
Yes, I missed "against' no deal, which is what I intended (and the rest of the comment should have been clear on)IanB2 said:
Yes, I know. Your claim was that she points out that the only majority is FOR no deal. I am pointing out that she actually says the only majority is AGAINST no deal. Read the second last para again.CarlottaVance said:IanB2 said:
Against no deal, is what she's saying.CarlottaVance said:As Badenoch points out, currently the only majority in Parliament at the moment is for 'No Deal' - so those wanting Brexit better start thinking.....
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1075005599799279616
She writes she supports the Deal.....
My, this is hard work today.0 -
Yes, I still think the most intelligent course for Labour would be (eventually) to allow the deal to pass by a reluctant abstention. If before that they could be seen to support a referendum, that might tend to limit the damage to their support by remainers - but being, cynical, they would want to support it only from a position of confidence that it wasn't going to happen.algarkirk said:Looking ahead, the Labour party as a whole is not at this minute in dire trouble but it would be the moment a couple of things happen: It is in dire trouble if it is seen as being the body of opinion that causes Remain to triumph eventually; and it is dire trouble if it has to take responsibility (by forming the government) of what is currently a Tory problem; and it is in dire trouble if they actually had to have a coherent policy about the real world prior to 29th March.
I don't think anyone wants to own this until 30th March at the earliest, which means that with all the huffing and puffing, Labour's best course is to be the opposition party until at least then, and the ensure that TM's government takes responsibility for the problems up to and of 29th March. The safest way to ensure this is by judicious use of abstention and individual rebellion make sure we actually leave on 29th March - and TMs deal is the only show in town to do so without something going pop.
As a VONC on 30th March or after may well get DUP behind Labour and succeed, the best Labour tactic is a no brainer.0 -
Er, you've obviously not spent much time here in Dorset recently. When Waitrose runs low on extra virgin olive oil the local wrinkly Leave voters are going to have serious regrets...MarqueeMark said:
The urban softies will panic. If indications so far are anything to go by, inside the M25 will just be a mass of soiled underwear.Benpointer said:
The Blitz generation may still have that stoicism but the country as a whole? - not so much. I cite as evidence the stiff upper lip attitude displayed after Princess Diana's death.SeanT said:Anecdote.
My largely eurosceptic family (with a few Remainers), is remarkably relaxed about No Deal, even as they admit it could be horrible.
"We've been through worse. Our grandparents endured the Blitz. It's not like anyone is going to invade, in living memory we had no antibiotics"..... etc etc
I confess I am impressed by their very British stoicism and sangfroid.
Pretty much everywhere else will shrug - and eat roadkill pheasants and badgers for a couple for weeks, until the roads around Dover get declogged.
... More seriously, they'll start worrying when their meds dry up, that's for sure.0 -
Again apols if posted before - Another good thread - the 'Tinkerbell theory of Brexit':
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1074634063322013696
All countries have their 'myths' ours of "stood alone"(with a quarter of the planet)is no substitute for rational analysis0 -
Ruling out those impossible things I believe our options are:
1) May's deal passes - 85%
2) May's deal doesn't pass, May extends A50, referendum is called Deal vs Remain - 15%0 -
There won’t be a general election unless May’s deal is defeated and she loses a VNOC in her Gov. The Tories don’t want to follow May into another GE.MarqueeMark said:
Wake up - May's Deal and No Deal are the only two options her government are considering. You want anything else - force a General Election.IanB2 said:
Against no deal, is what she's saying.CarlottaVance said:As Badenoch points out, currently the only majority in Parliament at the moment is for 'No Deal' - so those wanting Brexit better start thinking.....
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1075005599799279616
0 -
Betting Post
Backed No Deal before 1 April 2019 (and leaving the EU within that time) on Ladbrokes at 5 (5.25 with boost).
It's the default option. The alternatives are a referendum (already green on that at 6.5) and May's deal, which looks improbable.0 -
I still love the fact the Tories have a black MP with the surname ‘Bad Enoch’CarlottaVance said:As Badenoch points out, currently the only majority in Parliament at the moment is for 'No Deal' - so those wanting Brexit better start thinking.....
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1075005599799279616
#WhipHand #UpYoursEnoch0 -
If I were betting on No Deal I think I'd want my winnings in foreign currency.Morris_Dancer said:Betting Post
Backed No Deal before 1 April 2019 (and leaving the EU within that time) on Ladbrokes at 5 (5.25 with boost).
It's the default option. The alternatives are a referendum (already green on that at 6.5) and May's deal, which looks improbable.0 -
Doesn't look like Topping will be joining you:Morris_Dancer said:Betting Post
Backed No Deal before 1 April 2019 (and leaving the EU within that time) on Ladbrokes at 5 (5.25 with boost).
It's the default option. The alternatives are a referendum (already green on that at 6.5) and May's deal, which looks improbable.TOPPING said:Ruling out those impossible things I believe our options are:
1) May's deal passes - 85%
2) May's deal doesn't pass, May extends A50, referendum is called Deal vs Remain - 15%0 -
A default option at 4s is a mispricing.Benpointer said:
Doesn't look like Topping will be joining you:Morris_Dancer said:Betting Post
Backed No Deal before 1 April 2019 (and leaving the EU within that time) on Ladbrokes at 5 (5.25 with boost).
It's the default option. The alternatives are a referendum (already green on that at 6.5) and May's deal, which looks improbable.TOPPING said:Ruling out those impossible things I believe our options are:
1) May's deal passes - 85%
2) May's deal doesn't pass, May extends A50, referendum is called Deal vs Remain - 15%0 -
As @seanT would say, we are utterly fucked.AmpfieldAndy said:
There won’t be a general election unless May’s deal is defeated and she loses a VNOC in her Gov. The Tories don’t want to follow May into another GE.MarqueeMark said:
Wake up - May's Deal and No Deal are the only two options her government are considering. You want anything else - force a General Election.IanB2 said:
Against no deal, is what she's saying.CarlottaVance said:As Badenoch points out, currently the only majority in Parliament at the moment is for 'No Deal' - so those wanting Brexit better start thinking.....
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1075005599799279616
And, as a minor side consequence, so will the Tories be. They will be wiped out on a scale that is like Canada when the utter disaster that is no-deal happens in April. No matter how long they put off the GE. No voter will give a hoot, or even remember, that they voted for this: they will be too busy going nuts about job losses, lack of food and basic supplies, byzantine rationing schemes, meds problems, hospitals busting open with the elderly who can't get regular meds etc etc.
Don't forget this lot can't even organize a new railway timetable without chaos. Imagine them rationing food and organizing twenty miles of backed-up lorries full of vital supplies.
I see one of the Cabinet warned others that in the end the massive job losses would include their own voters who would act accordingly.
0 -
Hah.0
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0
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As you can see I am in a foul mood this afternoon.
The mess we are in is off the scale and we are being led by clowns of the highest order.
History will hold these people as effectively wanton criminals who should never have been near office.0 -
I have 75/25 so I vest leadership of the lean but mean Dealer Faction in you and am delighted to do so.TOPPING said:Ruling out those impossible things I believe our options are:
1) May's deal passes - 85%
2) May's deal doesn't pass, May extends A50, referendum is called Deal vs Remain - 15%
Great betting opportunity because the market has it below 50% never mind 75 or 85.
Except not a great betting opportunity (for me) because I'm maxed out and at odds that are a lot worse than now available. Ah well.0 -
Mr. Eagles, I'd vote Tarkin.
He reminds me a bit of Francis Urquhart in space.0
