politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The detail of the YouGov “LAB would slip to 3rd place behind t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The detail of the YouGov “LAB would slip to 3rd place behind the LDs ” poll
YouGov/People’s Vote
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Was there not a song about that?
Brexiting in peace.
You might say I'm a dreamer
And be absolutely right.
THERESA MAY IS ACTIVELY PIVOTING TOWARDS NO DEAL.
The Prime Minister has lost her fucking mind. This is going to be such delicious chaos. I can't wait.
I wonder if you can
Nothing to debate on PB
Just a brotherhood of man
Imagine all the remainers
As smug as smug as smug can be
The riff raff defeated,
their votes just history
You may say that I’m a dreamer
But I’m not the only one
Why don’t you come and join us
So we can get to a majority
(Not that that matters of course, we get to win anyway)
Or something like that.
If we go over the cliff edge, it is because Mrs May chooses to let us. And May is basically giving Corbyn his dream outcome...
Go ahead, Theresa. DO IT, I double dare you.
Really not so sure about May ! She might just be mad enough.
It'll teach the plebs not to ignore their betters.
David Cameron and George Osborne warned them that No Deal was a risk.
Leavers are so going to own this, especially given the multitude of times they said No Deal was just Project Fear.
All I can say is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7Tm0SQT7N4
I'm sure the Chancellor is keeping detailed records for the forthcoming public inquiry.
NO DEAL!
Why do we want it?
CHAOS!
Which has nothing to do with polls or how they fluctuate week to week.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/421822-sanders-tops-straw-poll-of-progressives-while-warren-places-fourth
It looks more than ever that Warren's presidential ambitions are over; this should be a key constituency for her.
I think her an under-appreciated politician...but it looks as though she will remain so.
Both make the plebs who voted for it suffer, what's not to love?
BUT:
1. Brexit is an important issue to shift votes. Even if the scale of the movement that the poll finds is exaggerated, it would surely exist at some level.
2. The finding that half Labour's 2017 voters would consider defecting to another party (mainly the LDs) is of itself important, even if this issue alone wouldn't prompt it. Labour should be extremely concerned about what would happen to their support if they got back into government - particularly if yesterday's shambles in parliament was indicative of their collective competence and unity. People don't notice that sort of thing in opposition; they do if you're in government because it matters so much more.
This is, basically Jeremy Corbyn's dream outcome.
You're more than welcome to write a pro Corbyn piece, citing polls if you'd like, to make the the counter argument.
I'd also point out Mike's most profitable bet ever was to bet on Theresa May underperforming and Corbyn overperforming.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n70ift0nyl/InternalResults_161114_Europe_W.pdf (pg. 14)
How closely did that poll mirror what actually happened in the following election?
Ahem.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/09/03/why-you-should-be-wary-of-hypothetical-polling/
Siri, show me a definition of "peak Tory".
Bear in mind May has about 290 No majority to flip.
Well, it's been a rough for years, but I suppose the unloved and underperforming leader, renowned for stubbornness, had to go sooner or later.
Edited extra bit: few*
I've never seen the Tories actually destroy a whole country before, it's going to be fascinating.
If there is No Deal the UK will align EU citizens rights with UK citizens rights (not the superior ones they get under the deal):
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-brexit-no-deal-citizens-rights-withdrawal-agreement-eu-migrants-ring-fencing-a8670506.html
Where are they going to find the extra 800,000 British pensioners?
https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-uk-citizens-live-other-eu-countries/
I suppose it's a departure from shouting racist at anyone who wants a working immigration system.
They're going to be exposed as the charlatans we've always known they've been.
By April 2019 people will lie and say they have convictions for bestiality than admit they voted for Leave.
It had an impact because it was fake news not because it was true. Just because a commitment to ban even further was omitted is not the same as wanting to rescind existing laws.
But the way a total ban as put in the 2015 manifesto was actually enacted in April this year.
It’s a lesson that fakenews is everywhere. I seem to recall that this particular piece was the most shared on social media by under 30s.
No deal, as we are seeing from the various snippets today, really is not going to happen.
Edit: and to think people wanted to put "No Deal" on a referendum question.
Jeremy Corbyn wants to make university cheaper for rich students.
I would rather we spent more on primary school education.
And here is my argument why:
https://thetab.com/uk/2018/12/17/roll-up-roll-up-here-comes-this-years-maddest-fresher-2018-nominees-87915
When have these politicians ever accepted responsibility for anything?
If Brexit turns out to be disastrous, it won't be the fault of the Brexiteers. It'll be the fault of remain voters, for denying them the massive overall majority that leave should have got, and therefore put a remainer in charge of things.
So if Brexit goes disastrously, it's your fault. It's my fault. It's not the fault of the Brexiteers. And you'd be a liar or a Frenchman to say differently ...
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1075027840922517504
We should have listened to the experts.
The real tragedy of no deal Brexit is that it ensure the election of Corbyn as PM, and the Tories won't be able to use the voice of experts warning about Corbynmics.
We are already seeing a stab-in-the-back myth developing.
Now, it may be that she doesn't understand what she's doing or saying; it may be that she's being far too optimistic in her assessment of what she can wring from the EU and/or what the DUP will accept; but it may also be that she has chosen to actively pursue a managed No Deal outcome.
Anyway, it would be wise to have survival supplies to hand where budget permits.
It is hard to see several hundred thousand people marching in London in favour of the EU if Remain had won.
Leave are the establishment now.
Every bad thing that happens in the UK for the next few years is going to be blamed on Brexit, even the next cyclical recession.
When leading Leave advocates have been screaming that Remainer May is doing the wrong thing at the time then it isn't hindsight to blame Remainer May afterwards.
The DUP know this, of course. They're not idiots.
It would have no relevance for Leavers, being the Great Unwashed.
Pah, an expert. Cons Brexiters can't complain if Lab dismiss the warnings. What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.
He said that we might only do a transition as a favour to the EU.
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1065648460903473152
"At worst May will extend A50 but as per Henry Newman's Twitter thread, people are coming round to the deal. It was put to me that there needed to be a way for deal opponents to climb down with honour and this seems to be happening."
More political myopia. Everyone talks like the politics are all that matters. That it is Corbyn, May & Barnier who will decide everything with maybe the DUP throwing a few caltrops into the arena.
Business, industry, banking, medicine - all these have an effect. The politicians do not operate in a vacuum. When jobs go, they are gone for good and those jobs impact voters.
Is it a Brexit? Is it a Brexit?
It's like someone suggesting we take a road trip to France, then a driver who didn't want to go to France (May) insists upon driving off the cliffs of Dover and driving across the Channel.
Leavers whose idea it was to take the journey keep saying it is wrong. We've suggested taking the Ferry instead but are being ignored as May keeps driving to the cliff edge.
If despite all the warnings May's incompetence takes us over the cliff then that doesn't mean the journey itself was wrong. We should have taken the Ferry as we suggested.
If steps are taken on both sides to mitigate the impact of No Deal (as seems likely) then the economy won't fall off a cliff on 30th March. The impact in the longer term might well be serious, but if there is no sudden crash, a lot of people will just conclude that it was another case of crying wolf.
The election that never was got cancelled rendering Cameron's pledge moot. Lisbon was already ratified before he took over.
The median voter's view of the EU has barely changed.
And also because they realise that this mess was caused by them signing up to this stuff that the majority didn't want.
https://brexitoptions.co.uk/diagram.html
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1065648487075860481?s=19