politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a terrible week for the White House Trump drops to just

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour would fall behind the Liberal Democrats in the polls if Jeremy Corbyn helps the Tories to secure Brexit, according to a huge new poll.

The YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, shows that support for Labour could fall from 36% to 22% if they helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May.

Under those circumstances, the Lib Dems would soar from 10% to 26% — their highest rating in any poll since they entered coalition government with the Tories in 2010.

The poll shows that Labour’s supporters want a People’s Vote by a margin of almost three to one — and an even bigger proportion would stay in the European Union if they were given the chance.

Those who voted Labour last year and remain the year before say they are more likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats (49%) than stay with Labour (41%). The survey suggests no compensating boost among those who voted leave in the referendum. In fact, it would be the Conservatives who would benefit if both main parties backed Brexit. Their support among leave voters would rise from 62% to 69%. Labour support among leave voters would slip from 21% to 19%.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-remainers-to-abandon-corbyn-if-he-passes-brexit-deal-6zfjgnm5w

FrancisUrquhart said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

FPT: my cholesterol a couple of weeks back was 1.7 - the lowest my doctor had ever seen. On anyone.

Must be all that gammon....

Make sure you have British sprouts to go with that gammon:

https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1073996080759623680?s=21

Meet them half-way.

Call them Waterloo Sprouts.....

Just call them sprouts. The taste is awful whatever you call them.

You clearly never done them properly.

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SandyRentool said:

Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.

The exact same here. I muted those few Facebook friends who posted incessantly on politics during the election.

Last night I was out for a dinner with a client and contacts. The subject came up. Despite this client being based in one of the less glamorous shires, there was a strikingly confident assumption, without having any particular advance information, by three of those present that everyone else would definitely have voted Remain. And they were right (at least in what people professed to have voted).

kjohnw said:

Best guess for 2019:
Britain exits EU with no deal it makes a relative success of it despite the fear mongers
TM remains PM until 29/3
Boris wins leadership with members
German car industry collapses
Sterling grows stronger
UK becomes tiger economy
Or maybe wishful thinking haha

justin124 said:

IanB2 said:

justin124 said:

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....

I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....

I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.

Very much agree with that. In an election campaign media coverage would be far more balanced.

It's not so much about balance as that all the strong points of view are coming from the Tories, with the LibDems playing the ultra-Remain view. Labour really has nothing worthwhile to say, since anyone can see that its own "better deal" is just fantasy and cover for its avoiding taking a position.

Few people are hearing the Libdems either. Party Leadership elections tend to boost a major party - just like the party conferences. This week virtually all attention has been focussed on the Tories - and the polls are likely to be flattering them.

Beverley_C said:

viewcode said:

I just got this in my email:

"...We’ll soon publish changes to our Terms of Service that may affect the Google services you use. Starting January 22, 2019, services offered under these terms will be offered by Google Ireland Limited instead of Google LLC. We’re making similar changes to the Drive, Play, YouTube, and YouTube Paid Service Terms of Service. You can find our new terms here.

At the same time, we’re also updating Google’s Privacy Policy to specify that Google Ireland Limited will be the data controller responsible for your information and for complying with applicable privacy laws. These updates will take effect if you’re based in the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, or Switzerland (unless otherwise stated in a service-specific privacy notice).

I do wonder if No-Deal will hit email services by non-EU companies. If business email goes *boink* there will be riots. Businesses go crazy if email goes down even for an hour or two. A day or two or a week could kill many businesses. Seriously - it is that mission critical.

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

IanB2 said:

justin124 said:

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....

I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....

I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.

Very much agree with that. In an election campaign media coverage would be far more balanced.

It's not so much about balance as that all the strong points of view are coming from the Tories, with the LibDems playing the ultra-Remain view. Labour really has nothing worthwhile to say, since anyone can see that its own "better deal" is just fantasy and cover for its avoiding taking a position.

Few people are hearing the Libdems either. Party Leadership elections tend to boost a major party - just like the party conferences. This week virtually all attention has been focussed on the Tories - and the polls are likely to be flattering them.

True story, just today in a rare discussion of politics with some extended family, someone mistook vince Cable for gerard Battern.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beverley_C said:

viewcode said:

I just got this in my email:

"...We’ll soon publish changes to our Terms of Service that may affect the Google services you use. Starting January 22, 2019, services offered under these terms will be offered by Google Ireland Limited instead of Google LLC. We’re making similar changes to the Drive, Play, YouTube, and YouTube Paid Service Terms of Service. You can find our new terms here.

At the same time, we’re also updating Google’s Privacy Policy to specify that Google Ireland Limited will be the data controller responsible for your information and for complying with applicable privacy laws. These updates will take effect if you’re based in the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, or Switzerland (unless otherwise stated in a service-specific privacy notice).

I do wonder if No-Deal will hit email services by non-EU companies. If business email goes *boink* there will be riots. Businesses go crazy if email goes down even for an hour or two. A day or two or a week could kill many businesses. Seriously - it is that mission critical.

This has nothing to do with Brexit.

Currently the Google Service Provider for Europe is Google LLC based in the US. But because of the new GDPR rules they have to relocate their service provider to somewhere in the EU. Since their Google Europe Headquarters are in Dublin (I presume for tax reasons) it made sense to also make that the location of their European Service Provider and Data Controller for GDPR purposes.


https://www.silicon.co.uk/workspace/google-ireland-takes-over-as-data-controller-for-european-users-239699

Andy_Cooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour would fall behind the Liberal Democrats in the polls if Jeremy Corbyn helps the Tories to secure Brexit, according to a huge new poll.

The YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, shows that support for Labour could fall from 36% to 22% if they helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May.

Under those circumstances, the Lib Dems would soar from 10% to 26% — their highest rating in any poll since they entered coalition government with the Tories in 2010.

The poll shows that Labour’s supporters want a People’s Vote by a margin of almost three to one — and an even bigger proportion would stay in the European Union if they were given the chance.

Those who voted Labour last year and remain the year before say they are more likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats (49%) than stay with Labour (41%). The survey suggests no compensating boost among those who voted leave in the referendum. In fact, it would be the Conservatives who would benefit if both main parties backed Brexit. Their support among leave voters would rise from 62% to 69%. Labour support among leave voters would slip from 21% to 19%.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-remainers-to-abandon-corbyn-if-he-passes-brexit-deal-6zfjgnm5w

And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
Con - 365
Lab - 186
LD 34
SNP 42

(assuming no change in the SNP vote).
Quite harsh on the Lib Dems, really - well ahead of Labour in second place in votes and still well behind seats-wise in fourth.

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

IanB2 said:

justin124 said:

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....

I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....

I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.

Very much agree with that. In an election campaign media coverage would be far more balanced.

It's not so much about balance as that all the strong points of view are coming from the Tories, with the LibDems playing the ultra-Remain view. Labour really has nothing worthwhile to say, since anyone can see that its own "better deal" is just fantasy and cover for its avoiding taking a position.

Few people are hearing the Libdems either. Party Leadership elections tend to boost a major party - just like the party conferences. This week virtually all attention has been focussed on the Tories - and the polls are likely to be flattering them.

True story, just today in a rare discussion of politics with some extended family, someone mistook vince Cable for gerard Battern.

Andy_Cooke said:

And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
Con - 365
Lab - 186
LD 34
SNP 42

OldKingCole said:

Andy_Cooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour would fall behind the Liberal Democrats in the polls if Jeremy Corbyn helps the Tories to secure Brexit, according to a huge new poll.

The YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, shows that support for Labour could fall from 36% to 22% if they helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May.

Under those circumstances, the Lib Dems would soar from 10% to 26% — their highest rating in any poll since they entered coalition government with the Tories in 2010.

The poll shows that Labour’s supporters want a People’s Vote by a margin of almost three to one — and an even bigger proportion would stay in the European Union if they were given the chance.

Those who voted Labour last year and remain the year before say they are more likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats (49%) than stay with Labour (41%). The survey suggests no compensating boost among those who voted leave in the referendum. In fact, it would be the Conservatives who would benefit if both main parties backed Brexit. Their support among leave voters would rise from 62% to 69%. Labour support among leave voters would slip from 21% to 19%.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-remainers-to-abandon-corbyn-if-he-passes-brexit-deal-6zfjgnm5w

And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
Con - 365
Lab - 186
LD 34
SNP 42

(assuming no change in the SNP vote).
Quite harsh on the Lib Dems, really - well ahead of Labour in second place in votes and still well behind seats-wise in fourth.

Some how, some way the LD’s have GOT to get ahead of the SNP in seats and have the Speaker call them third.

Richard_Tyndall said:

kyf_100 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SandyRentool said:

Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.

A wise choice.

I find it extremely useful to have an outlet here, where I can talk politics with people of all different persuasions and be reasonably assured of an entertaining, informed, respectful debate.

I more or less block/delete/mute anyone who talks about politics on social media. Sometimes you feel as if the world has gone mad. It as if your niche, weird, nerdy sport has suddenly become more popular than the football overnight. Once upon a time, politics was derided by your friends as a weird obsessive hobby, but now they all have a favourite team (which they are extremely vocal about), and they seem to believe that the rules of the game are who shouts loudest wins.

I'm only in my mid thirties and I must say it feels strange for so many people to be interested in politics. Older posters - have there been other instances where politics feels as visceral and as mainstream as now? What was it like?

I would say not in the internet era. It certainly felt visceral back in the 80s during the miners strike etc. But then I was at University then and so it was far more immediate.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

IanB2 said:

justin124 said:

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....

I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....

I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.

Very much agree with that. In an election campaign media coverage would be far more balanced.

It's not so much about balance as that all the strong points of view are coming from the Tories, with the LibDems playing the ultra-Remain view. Labour really has nothing worthwhile to say, since anyone can see that its own "better deal" is just fantasy and cover for its avoiding taking a position.

Few people are hearing the Libdems either. Party Leadership elections tend to boost a major party - just like the party conferences. This week virtually all attention has been focussed on the Tories - and the polls are likely to be flattering them.

True story, just today in a rare discussion of politics with some extended family, someone mistook vince Cable for gerard Battern.

Now that is so funny

Beverley_C said:

viewcode said:

I just got this in my email:

"...We’ll soon publish changes to our Terms of Service that may affect the Google services you use. Starting January 22, 2019, services offered under these terms will be offered by Google Ireland Limited instead of Google LLC. We’re making similar changes to the Drive, Play, YouTube, and YouTube Paid Service Terms of Service. You can find our new terms here.

At the same time, we’re also updating Google’s Privacy Policy to specify that Google Ireland Limited will be the data controller responsible for your information and for complying with applicable privacy laws. These updates will take effect if you’re based in the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, or Switzerland (unless otherwise stated in a service-specific privacy notice).

I do wonder if No-Deal will hit email services by non-EU companies. If business email goes *boink* there will be riots. Businesses go crazy if email goes down even for an hour or two. A day or two or a week could kill many businesses. Seriously - it is that mission critical.

Yorkcity said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

kyf_100 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SandyRentool said:

Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.

A wise choice.

I find it extremely useful to have an outlet here, where I can talk politics with people of all different persuasions and be reasonably assured of an entertaining, informed, respectful debate.

I more or less block/delete/mute anyone who talks about politics on social media. Sometimes you feel as if the world has gone mad. It as if your niche, weird, nerdy sport has suddenly become more popular than the football overnight. Once upon a time, politics was derided by your friends as a weird obsessive hobby, but now they all have a favourite team (which they are extremely vocal about), and they seem to believe that the rules of the game are who shouts loudest wins.

I'm only in my mid thirties and I must say it feels strange for so many people to be interested in politics. Older posters - have there been other instances where politics feels as visceral and as mainstream as now? What was it like?

I would say not in the internet era. It certainly felt visceral back in the 80s during the miners strike etc. But then I was at University then and so it was far more immediate.

Yes imo it was worse in the early to mid 80s than now.
However it could get worse.

I worked for the police but the miners strike and Thatchers and Scargills reaction to it .
Divided communities especially up here.
The language was terrible "the enemy within " etc.
I had friends working in the building trade, who could not get work as they were blacklisted due to been union members.

I went on a rugby trip during the strike to Wembley.
Our bus was stopped near London we were all asked to proof our attendance.
At times it felt like a police state.
Also the mass unemployment was terrible.

kyf_100 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

kyf_100 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SandyRentool said:

Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.

A wise choice.

I find it extremely useful to have an outlet here, where I can talk politics with people of all different persuasions and be reasonably assured of an entertaining, informed, respectful debate.

I more or less block/delete/mute anyone who talks about politics on social media. Sometimes you feel as if the world has gone mad. It as if your niche, weird, nerdy sport has suddenly become more popular than the football overnight. Once upon a time, politics was derided by your friends as a weird obsessive hobby, but now they all have a favourite team (which they are extremely vocal about), and they seem to believe that the rules of the game are who shouts loudest wins.

I'm only in my mid thirties and I must say it feels strange for so many people to be interested in politics. Older posters - have there been other instances where politics feels as visceral and as mainstream as now? What was it like?

I would say not in the internet era. It certainly felt visceral back in the 80s during the miners strike etc. But then I was at University then and so it was far more immediate.

Yup. The miners strike would have been my best guess for the last time politics felt this mainstream. Possibly 1997, which of course I remember as a teenager but was more interested in getting high at the time.

I often wonder what things would be like if social media wasn't around, but that is rather like asking what the 60s would have been like without television. I think social media has had an amplifying effect but we are still living in strange and interesting times.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Am laying Ashley.

TMI, Mr Eagles...

SquareRoot said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Am laying Ashley.

TMI, Mr Eagles...

If justice is to be dome Faye Tozer with Giovani pernnice shouod win.. barring a disaster in their last dance

Pulpstar said:

Labour seems to have 150-200 seats that are absolubtely impervious to any realistic national result. Not even the Tories have this luxury.

Foxy said:

paulyork64 said:

SquareRoot said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Am laying Ashley.

TMI, Mr Eagles...

If justice is to be dome Faye Tozer with Giovani pernnice shouod win.. barring a disaster in their last dance

Voted for and backed her. Was engaged first time I tried but not sure that's significant.

I don't think she has been in a dance off. I am green on her, but think Joe may well win.

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

viewcode said:

I just got this in my email:

"...We’ll soon publish changes to our Terms of Service that may affect the Google services you use. Starting January 22, 2019, services offered under these terms will be offered by Google Ireland Limited instead of Google LLC. We’re making similar changes to the Drive, Play, YouTube, and YouTube Paid Service Terms of Service. You can find our new terms here.

At the same time, we’re also updating Google’s Privacy Policy to specify that Google Ireland Limited will be the data controller responsible for your information and for complying with applicable privacy laws. These updates will take effect if you’re based in the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, or Switzerland (unless otherwise stated in a service-specific privacy notice).

I do wonder if No-Deal will hit email services by non-EU companies. If business email goes *boink* there will be riots. Businesses go crazy if email goes down even for an hour or two. A day or two or a week could kill many businesses. Seriously - it is that mission critical.

Email stopping because of brexit? Project fear has reached absurd new heights.

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

Andrew said:

Andy_Cooke said:

And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
Con - 365
Lab - 186
LD 34
SNP 42

My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

(OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

Really you should be shocked.

LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271

who are the lucky 14?

The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
Rayleigh - Mark Francois
Christchurch - Christopher Chope
Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
Newark - Robert Jenrick
Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
Tamworth - Chris Pincher
Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
Maldon- John Whittingdale
Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

Andrew said:

Andy_Cooke said:

And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
Con - 365
Lab - 186
LD 34
SNP 42

My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

(OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

Really you should be shocked.

LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271

who are the lucky 14?

The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
Rayleigh - Mark Francois
Christchurch - Christopher Chope
Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
Newark - Robert Jenrick
Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
Tamworth - Chris Pincher
Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
Maldon- John Whittingdale
Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

Pulpstar said:

Gavin Williamson is the final Tory in case of a Lib Dem surge.

paulyork64 said:

Foxy said:

paulyork64 said:

SquareRoot said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Am laying Ashley.

TMI, Mr Eagles...

If justice is to be dome Faye Tozer with Giovani pernnice shouod win.. barring a disaster in their last dance

Voted for and backed her. Was engaged first time I tried but not sure that's significant.

I don't think she has been in a dance off. I am green on her, but think Joe may well win.

Only Ashley has of the last 4. Being the only male could help joe.

grabcocque said:

I note that Sajid Javid is in favour of an immigration policy that wouldn't have allowed his own parents entry.

Hey Siri, show me a definition of "peak Tory".

ralphmalph said:

viewcode said:

kyf_100 said:

I'm only in my mid thirties and I must say it feels strange for so many people to be interested in politics. Older posters - have there been other instances where politics feels as visceral and as mainstream as now? What was it like?

In the 90's we had the fall of the Soviet Union, and the high interest rates prior to leaving the ERM resulted in people undergoing great strain: people were coming into work crying.

In the 80's we had the Miners' Strike and - God help me - Threads. People don't remember how much Margaret Thatcher was genuinely hated in some areas, and loved in others.

In the 70's, there was the three-day-week, power cuts, the Winter of Discontent and popular impressionists doing impressions of political figures.

In the 60's, there was the Cuban Missile Crisis: again, scary

And I haven't even covered the Troubles, a Muslim Iran, Gulf War 1 & 2, the extraordinary change in the roles of women, increased LGTBQ acceptance, etc

Millennials come in for a lot of undeserved flak, but one accurate charge is that they genuinely don't bellyfeel how bad things can get.

My boss at the time, Ferrari owner (2nd car) had 20 quid a month after his mortgage was paid.

Foxy said:

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

Andrew said:

Andy_Cooke said:

And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
Con - 365
Lab - 186
LD 34
SNP 42

My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

(OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

Really you should be shocked.

LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271

who are the lucky 14?

The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
Rayleigh - Mark Francois
Christchurch - Christopher Chope
Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
Newark - Robert Jenrick
Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
Tamworth - Chris Pincher
Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
Maldon- John Whittingdale
Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

Christchurch? Isn't that the constituency of Christopher Chope, the MP who prevented action being taken against upskirting and FGM? What does he have to do to lose: sacrifice virgins to Satan?

He stands for traditional patriachal values. Can't be doing with all that feminist claptrap.

grabcocque said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Opinium

TM has improved her standing with voters with some 47% viewing her as brave and sticks to her principles. It is the highrst rating since she became PM in 2016

And there is the reason why the consevative poll ratings are holding up

She is a clear asset to the party and the party would struggle if she was replaced

Big G, Mrs May won't be leading the Tories into the next election.

She has now ONE job, to get her deal through Parliament.

How well do you think that's going?

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SandyRentool said:

Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.

The exact same here. I muted those few Facebook friends who posted incessantly on politics during the election.

Last night I was out for a dinner with a client and contacts. The subject came up. Despite this client being based in one of the less glamorous shires, there was a strikingly confident assumption, without having any particular advance information, by three of those present that everyone else would definitely have voted Remain. And they were right (at least in what people professed to have voted).

It's possible, of course, that they were a secret pb aficionado, and therefore knew your views.

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

Andrew said:

Andy_Cooke said:

And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
Con - 365
Lab - 186
LD 34
SNP 42

My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

(OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

Really you should be shocked.

LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271

who are the lucky 14?

The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
Rayleigh - Mark Francois
Christchurch - Christopher Chope
Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
Newark - Robert Jenrick
Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
Tamworth - Chris Pincher
Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
Maldon- John Whittingdale
Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

Christchurch? Isn't that the constituency of Christopher Chope, the MP who prevented action being taken against upskirting and FGM? What does he have to do to lose: sacrifice virgins to Satan?

He stands for traditional patriachal values. Can't be doing with all that feminist claptrap.

Bit like Juncker with his unacceptable behaviour to women then

To the best of my knowledge, Juncker hasn't prevented legislation against FGM. I know he's on your team Big-G, but can't you give Chope a nudge and tell him not to be so serial-killer-y?

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

Andrew said:

Andy_Cooke said:

And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
Con - 365
Lab - 186
LD 34
SNP 42

My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

(OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

Really you should be shocked.

LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271

who are the lucky 14?

The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
Rayleigh - Mark Francois
Christchurch - Christopher Chope
Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
Newark - Robert Jenrick
Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
Tamworth - Chris Pincher
Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
Maldon- John Whittingdale
Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

OldKingCole said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

Andrew said:

Andy_Cooke said:

And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
Con - 365
Lab - 186
LD 34
SNP 42

My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

(OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

Really you should be shocked.

LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271

who are the lucky 14?

The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
Rayleigh - Mark Francois
Christchurch - Christopher Chope
Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
Newark - Robert Jenrick
Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
Tamworth - Chris Pincher
Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
Maldon- John Whittingdale
Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

Castle Point and Newark have been Labour quite recently. However, both had ‘strange' MP’s; Tory in Castle Point, Labour in Newark.
Absolutely delighted when Castle Point, where I then lived, went Labour.

matt said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SandyRentool said:

Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.

The exact same here. I muted those few Facebook friends who posted incessantly on politics during the election.

Last night I was out for a dinner with a client and contacts. The subject came up. Despite this client being based in one of the less glamorous shires, there was a strikingly confident assumption, without having any particular advance information, by three of those present that everyone else would definitely have voted Remain. And they were right (at least in what people professed to have voted).

I’m intrigued. Which shire and is there a league table of glamour (Staffordshire and Lincolnshire would vie for relegation to the Surrey division one fears)?

IanB2 said:

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

Gavin Williamson is the final Tory in case of a Lib Dem surge.

Oh dear....

Dan Carden is the Labour analogue, he's the safest MP in the country in any party armageddon scenario.

If I'd've been asked, I'd've said Chris Bryant (Rhondda), but I've just googled and it's not even close. It is not my day...

Outside chance for PC?

grabcocque said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

grabcocque said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Opinium

TM has improved her standing with voters with some 47% viewing her as brave and sticks to her principles. It is the highrst rating since she became PM in 2016

And there is the reason why the consevative poll ratings are holding up

She is a clear asset to the party and the party would struggle if she was replaced

Big G, Mrs May won't be leading the Tories into the next election.

She has now ONE job, to get her deal through Parliament.

How well do you think that's going?

Depends if it is in the next three months

She has a near impossible job but it looks like the voters trusts everyone else a lot less

Mrs May has one job to do. Get her deal through Parliament. A job she is failing at prodigiously. And, since she cannot do her one job, that's a very... nebulous... defintion of "asset" you're using.

Surely an "asset" wouldn't be being humiliated by the EU every time they met
An "asset" wouldn't have lost the confidence of over half her backbenchers
An "asset" wouldn't have mobilised a nearly 300-strong majority against her in Parliament before running away in terror at the last moment.
An "asset" wouldn't have betrayed and alienated the very coalition partners she relies on for a majority
An "asset" wouldn't have lied to her party that she could "renegotiate" the withdrawal agreement
An "asset" wouldn't been running down the clock to try to blackmail the UK into accepting a deal while she has a gun pointed at the head of the UK economy
An "asset" wouldn't have been forced to PROMISE to never, ever lead another Tory election campaign not to get sacked.
An "asset" wouldn't have turned the UK so decisively against her deal that three times as many people would rather either remain or crash out into economic chaos than vote for anything she'd negotiated.
An "asset" wouldn't be clinging to power by their fingertips, with the overpowering stench of poltitical death hanging about them saying NOTHING HAS CHANGED NOTHING HAS CHANGED like a mentally damaged dalek.

Perhaps you're using a different definition of asset, one I haven't heard before?

IanB2 said:

nico67 said:

As a Labour supporter and Remainer I could live with Mays deal .

I of course would like another referendum which was fair to leave and didn’t try and rig the ballot as that would cause a lot of problems .

However I’m getting fed up of Labours attempts to do nothing and wait for the Tories to implode . Labour need to either back Mays deal or call for another referendum . The time for constructive ambiguity is over !

If only it were constructive.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The Independent

Labour are backing away from a referendum as was evidenced by Angela Rayner's comments on question time and may yet back TM deal

(Please do not all shout at me, I am only reporting the article)