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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    FPT: my cholesterol a couple of weeks back was 1.7 - the lowest my doctor had ever seen. On anyone.

    Must be all that gammon....

    Make sure you have British sprouts to go with that gammon:

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1073996080759623680?s=21
    Meet them half-way.

    Call them Waterloo Sprouts.....
    Just call them sprouts. The taste is awful whatever you call them.
    You clearly never done them properly.
    Probably. I am not sure I want to know the answer but the proper way is....?
    Roasted not boiled. Mrs urquhart roasts them with pancetta and chestnuts.
    +1

    There's almost no vegetable that tastes better boiled than roasted.

    Except possibly peas.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    Labour would fall behind the Liberal Democrats in the polls if Jeremy Corbyn helps the Tories to secure Brexit, according to a huge new poll.

    The YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, shows that support for Labour could fall from 36% to 22% if they helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May.

    Under those circumstances, the Lib Dems would soar from 10% to 26% — their highest rating in any poll since they entered coalition government with the Tories in 2010.

    The poll shows that Labour’s supporters want a People’s Vote by a margin of almost three to one — and an even bigger proportion would stay in the European Union if they were given the chance.

    Those who voted Labour last year and remain the year before say they are more likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats (49%) than stay with Labour (41%). The survey suggests no compensating boost among those who voted leave in the referendum. In fact, it would be the Conservatives who would benefit if both main parties backed Brexit. Their support among leave voters would rise from 62% to 69%. Labour support among leave voters would slip from 21% to 19%.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-remainers-to-abandon-corbyn-if-he-passes-brexit-deal-6zfjgnm5w

    Yeah, if, if, if... and when push comes to shove and making a protest on a hypothetical poll on the internet can't influence anything, you'd get between none of that swing and maybe a quarter of it. Temporarily.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    Labour would fall behind the Liberal Democrats in the polls if Jeremy Corbyn helps the Tories to secure Brexit, according to a huge new poll.

    The YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, shows that support for Labour could fall from 36% to 22% if they helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May.

    Under those circumstances, the Lib Dems would soar from 10% to 26% — their highest rating in any poll since they entered coalition government with the Tories in 2010.

    The poll shows that Labour’s supporters want a People’s Vote by a margin of almost three to one — and an even bigger proportion would stay in the European Union if they were given the chance.

    Those who voted Labour last year and remain the year before say they are more likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats (49%) than stay with Labour (41%). The survey suggests no compensating boost among those who voted leave in the referendum. In fact, it would be the Conservatives who would benefit if both main parties backed Brexit. Their support among leave voters would rise from 62% to 69%. Labour support among leave voters would slip from 21% to 19%.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-remainers-to-abandon-corbyn-if-he-passes-brexit-deal-6zfjgnm5w

    This sort of polling is up there with "Would you vote for New Party" on the list of "complete crap hypothetical"
    It's nonsense, but more bolstering, if any were needed, for labour to not want to touch any deal with a barge pole.
  • Never change Bruno Tonioli
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

    I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.
    The exact same here. I muted those few Facebook friends who posted incessantly on politics during the election.

    Last night I was out for a dinner with a client and contacts. The subject came up. Despite this client being based in one of the less glamorous shires, there was a strikingly confident assumption, without having any particular advance information, by three of those present that everyone else would definitely have voted Remain. And they were right (at least in what people professed to have voted).
    It's possible, of course, that they were a secret pb aficionado, and therefore knew your views.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    J

    FPT: my cholesterol a couple of weeks back was 1.7 - the lowest my doctor had ever seen. On anyone.

    Must be all that gammon....

    Make sure you have British sprouts to go with that gammon:

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1073996080759623680?s=21
    Meet them half-way.

    Call them Waterloo Sprouts.....
    Just call them sprouts. The taste is awful whatever you call them.
    You clearly never done them properly.
    That is:

    A. Remove outer leaves;

    b. Rolling boil 4 minutes;

    C. Drain and refresh in iced water;

    D. Mix in mustard seeds and savory and stir fry for 2 minutes;

    E. Toss in the bin;

    F. Wilt and eat the tops in butter?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Best guess for 2019:
    Britain exits EU with no deal it makes a relative success of it despite the fear mongers
    TM remains PM until 29/3
    Boris wins leadership with members
    German car industry collapses
    Sterling grows stronger
    UK becomes tiger economy
    Or maybe wishful thinking haha
  • JohnO said:

    OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

    This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

    The thing is that's ony shocking in conventional terms. Given we have simultaniously the worst government and worst opposition of my lifetime polling parity and stasis makes a kind of sense.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    JohnO said:

    OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

    This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

    Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....
    I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.

    JohnO said:

    OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

    This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

    Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....
    I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.
    Very much agree with that. In an election campaign media coverage would be far more balanced.
    It's not so much about balance as that all the strong points of view are coming from the Tories, with the LibDems playing the ultra-Remain view. Labour really has nothing worthwhile to say, since anyone can see that its own "better deal" is just fantasy and cover for its avoiding taking a position.
    Few people are hearing the Libdems either. Party Leadership elections tend to boost a major party - just like the party conferences. This week virtually all attention has been focussed on the Tories - and the polls are likely to be flattering them.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

    I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.
    The exact same here. I muted those few Facebook friends who posted incessantly on politics during the election.

    Last night I was out for a dinner with a client and contacts. The subject came up. Despite this client being based in one of the less glamorous shires, there was a strikingly confident assumption, without having any particular advance information, by three of those present that everyone else would definitely have voted Remain. And they were right (at least in what people professed to have voted).
    I’m intrigued. Which shire and is there a league table of glamour (Staffordshire and Lincolnshire would vie for relegation to the Surrey division one fears)?
  • viewcode said:

    I just got this in my email:

    "...We’ll soon publish changes to our Terms of Service that may affect the Google services you use. Starting January 22, 2019, services offered under these terms will be offered by Google Ireland Limited instead of Google LLC. We’re making similar changes to the Drive, Play, YouTube, and YouTube Paid Service Terms of Service. You can find our new terms here.

    At the same time, we’re also updating Google’s Privacy Policy to specify that Google Ireland Limited will be the data controller responsible for your information and for complying with applicable privacy laws. These updates will take effect if you’re based in the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, or Switzerland (unless otherwise stated in a service-specific privacy notice).

    I do wonder if No-Deal will hit email services by non-EU companies. If business email goes *boink* there will be riots. Businesses go crazy if email goes down even for an hour or two. A day or two or a week could kill many businesses. Seriously - it is that mission critical.
    This has nothing to do with Brexit.

    Currently the Google Service Provider for Europe is Google LLC based in the US. But because of the new GDPR rules they have to relocate their service provider to somewhere in the EU. Since their Google Europe Headquarters are in Dublin (I presume for tax reasons) it made sense to also make that the location of their European Service Provider and Data Controller for GDPR purposes.


    https://www.silicon.co.uk/workspace/google-ireland-takes-over-as-data-controller-for-european-users-239699
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kjohnw said:

    Best guess for 2019:
    Britain exits EU with no deal it makes a relative success of it despite the fear mongers
    TM remains PM until 29/3
    Boris wins leadership with members
    German car industry collapses
    Sterling grows stronger
    UK becomes tiger economy
    Or maybe wishful thinking haha

    Cannabis production clearly improving in light of government policy changes.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    Labour would fall behind the Liberal Democrats in the polls if Jeremy Corbyn helps the Tories to secure Brexit, according to a huge new poll.

    The YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, shows that support for Labour could fall from 36% to 22% if they helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May.

    Under those circumstances, the Lib Dems would soar from 10% to 26% — their highest rating in any poll since they entered coalition government with the Tories in 2010.

    The poll shows that Labour’s supporters want a People’s Vote by a margin of almost three to one — and an even bigger proportion would stay in the European Union if they were given the chance.

    Those who voted Labour last year and remain the year before say they are more likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats (49%) than stay with Labour (41%). The survey suggests no compensating boost among those who voted leave in the referendum. In fact, it would be the Conservatives who would benefit if both main parties backed Brexit. Their support among leave voters would rise from 62% to 69%. Labour support among leave voters would slip from 21% to 19%.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-remainers-to-abandon-corbyn-if-he-passes-brexit-deal-6zfjgnm5w

    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    (assuming no change in the SNP vote).
    Quite harsh on the Lib Dems, really - well ahead of Labour in second place in votes and still well behind seats-wise in fourth.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    JohnO said:

    OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

    This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

    Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....
    I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.

    JohnO said:

    OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

    This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

    Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....
    I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.
    Very much agree with that. In an election campaign media coverage would be far more balanced.
    It's not so much about balance as that all the strong points of view are coming from the Tories, with the LibDems playing the ultra-Remain view. Labour really has nothing worthwhile to say, since anyone can see that its own "better deal" is just fantasy and cover for its avoiding taking a position.
    Few people are hearing the Libdems either. Party Leadership elections tend to boost a major party - just like the party conferences. This week virtually all attention has been focussed on the Tories - and the polls are likely to be flattering them.
    True story, just today in a rare discussion of politics with some extended family, someone mistook vince Cable for gerard Battern.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    viewcode said:

    I just got this in my email:

    "...We’ll soon publish changes to our Terms of Service that may affect the Google services you use. Starting January 22, 2019, services offered under these terms will be offered by Google Ireland Limited instead of Google LLC. We’re making similar changes to the Drive, Play, YouTube, and YouTube Paid Service Terms of Service. You can find our new terms here.

    At the same time, we’re also updating Google’s Privacy Policy to specify that Google Ireland Limited will be the data controller responsible for your information and for complying with applicable privacy laws. These updates will take effect if you’re based in the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, or Switzerland (unless otherwise stated in a service-specific privacy notice).

    I do wonder if No-Deal will hit email services by non-EU companies. If business email goes *boink* there will be riots. Businesses go crazy if email goes down even for an hour or two. A day or two or a week could kill many businesses. Seriously - it is that mission critical.
    They were the first companies to move after the leave vote. MS spun it as supporting UK Govt clients but the Govt was on Office 365 and it was hosted in Dublin.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-37285667

    Amazon announced that it was moving services as well.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,139
    edited December 2018

    viewcode said:

    I just got this in my email:

    "...We’ll soon publish changes to our Terms of Service that may affect the Google services you use. Starting January 22, 2019, services offered under these terms will be offered by Google Ireland Limited instead of Google LLC. We’re making similar changes to the Drive, Play, YouTube, and YouTube Paid Service Terms of Service. You can find our new terms here.

    At the same time, we’re also updating Google’s Privacy Policy to specify that Google Ireland Limited will be the data controller responsible for your information and for complying with applicable privacy laws. These updates will take effect if you’re based in the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, or Switzerland (unless otherwise stated in a service-specific privacy notice).

    I do wonder if No-Deal will hit email services by non-EU companies. If business email goes *boink* there will be riots. Businesses go crazy if email goes down even for an hour or two. A day or two or a week could kill many businesses. Seriously - it is that mission critical.
    No, it won't. From memory, it's not possible for somebody on the European mainland to disable UK email via legislation. Email is just a way of formatting a phone signal.

    One thing that nobody here thought of was whether cloud storage was held on EU servers, and whether GDPR would kick in if our PCs were inside EU but the cloud was outside. But I think over the past two years a lot of cloud storage is now on UK servers, so it's a non-problem
  • matt said:

    Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

    I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.
    The exact same here. I muted those few Facebook friends who posted incessantly on politics during the election.

    Last night I was out for a dinner with a client and contacts. The subject came up. Despite this client being based in one of the less glamorous shires, there was a strikingly confident assumption, without having any particular advance information, by three of those present that everyone else would definitely have voted Remain. And they were right (at least in what people professed to have voted).
    I’m intrigued. Which shire and is there a league table of glamour (Staffordshire and Lincolnshire would vie for relegation to the Surrey division one fears)?
    Lancashire, that's the least glamorous shire out there.
  • kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    JohnO said:

    OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

    This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

    Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....
    I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.

    JohnO said:

    OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

    This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

    Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....
    I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.
    Very much agree with that. In an election campaign media coverage would be far more balanced.
    It's not so much about balance as that all the strong points of view are coming from the Tories, with the LibDems playing the ultra-Remain view. Labour really has nothing worthwhile to say, since anyone can see that its own "better deal" is just fantasy and cover for its avoiding taking a position.
    Few people are hearing the Libdems either. Party Leadership elections tend to boost a major party - just like the party conferences. This week virtually all attention has been focussed on the Tories - and the polls are likely to be flattering them.
    True story, just today in a rare discussion of politics with some extended family, someone mistook vince Cable for gerard Battern.
    Easy mistake to make...
  • kyf_100 said:

    Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

    I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.
    A wise choice.

    I find it extremely useful to have an outlet here, where I can talk politics with people of all different persuasions and be reasonably assured of an entertaining, informed, respectful debate.

    I more or less block/delete/mute anyone who talks about politics on social media. Sometimes you feel as if the world has gone mad. It as if your niche, weird, nerdy sport has suddenly become more popular than the football overnight. Once upon a time, politics was derided by your friends as a weird obsessive hobby, but now they all have a favourite team (which they are extremely vocal about), and they seem to believe that the rules of the game are who shouts loudest wins.

    I'm only in my mid thirties and I must say it feels strange for so many people to be interested in politics. Older posters - have there been other instances where politics feels as visceral and as mainstream as now? What was it like?
    I would say not in the internet era. It certainly felt visceral back in the 80s during the miners strike etc. But then I was at University then and so it was far more immediate.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    viewcode said:

    I just got this in my email:

    "...We’ll soon publish changes to our Terms of Service that may affect the Google services you use. Starting January 22, 2019, services offered under these terms will be offered by Google Ireland Limited instead of Google LLC. We’re making similar changes to the Drive, Play, YouTube, and YouTube Paid Service Terms of Service. You can find our new terms here.

    At the same time, we’re also updating Google’s Privacy Policy to specify that Google Ireland Limited will be the data controller responsible for your information and for complying with applicable privacy laws. These updates will take effect if you’re based in the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, or Switzerland (unless otherwise stated in a service-specific privacy notice).

    I do wonder if No-Deal will hit email services by non-EU companies. If business email goes *boink* there will be riots. Businesses go crazy if email goes down even for an hour or two. A day or two or a week could kill many businesses. Seriously - it is that mission critical.
    This has nothing to do with Brexit.

    Currently the Google Service Provider for Europe is Google LLC based in the US. But because of the new GDPR rules they have to relocate their service provider to somewhere in the EU. Since their Google Europe Headquarters are in Dublin (I presume for tax reasons) it made sense to also make that the location of their European Service Provider and Data Controller for GDPR purposes.


    https://www.silicon.co.uk/workspace/google-ireland-takes-over-as-data-controller-for-european-users-239699
    Yes, that was obviously the case. It will also help in the context of the OECD BEPS drive to show that Dublin is a real place of business and not just a pass through.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    matt said:

    Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

    I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.
    The exact same here. I muted those few Facebook friends who posted incessantly on politics during the election.

    Last night I was out for a dinner with a client and contacts. The subject came up. Despite this client being based in one of the less glamorous shires, there was a strikingly confident assumption, without having any particular advance information, by three of those present that everyone else would definitely have voted Remain. And they were right (at least in what people professed to have voted).
    I’m intrigued. Which shire and is there a league table of glamour (Staffordshire and Lincolnshire would vie for relegation to the Surrey division one fears)?
    Nah, Shropshire is our backstop.
  • Labour would fall behind the Liberal Democrats in the polls if Jeremy Corbyn helps the Tories to secure Brexit, according to a huge new poll.

    The YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, shows that support for Labour could fall from 36% to 22% if they helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May.

    Under those circumstances, the Lib Dems would soar from 10% to 26% — their highest rating in any poll since they entered coalition government with the Tories in 2010.

    The poll shows that Labour’s supporters want a People’s Vote by a margin of almost three to one — and an even bigger proportion would stay in the European Union if they were given the chance.

    Those who voted Labour last year and remain the year before say they are more likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats (49%) than stay with Labour (41%). The survey suggests no compensating boost among those who voted leave in the referendum. In fact, it would be the Conservatives who would benefit if both main parties backed Brexit. Their support among leave voters would rise from 62% to 69%. Labour support among leave voters would slip from 21% to 19%.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-remainers-to-abandon-corbyn-if-he-passes-brexit-deal-6zfjgnm5w

    Tells you why Labour concentrate on domestic issues and remain ambivalent on Brexit.
  • I've made this point for a while

    image
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    Labour would fall behind the Liberal Democrats in the polls if Jeremy Corbyn helps the Tories to secure Brexit, according to a huge new poll.

    The YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, shows that support for Labour could fall from 36% to 22% if they helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May.

    Under those circumstances, the Lib Dems would soar from 10% to 26% — their highest rating in any poll since they entered coalition government with the Tories in 2010.

    The poll shows that Labour’s supporters want a People’s Vote by a margin of almost three to one — and an even bigger proportion would stay in the European Union if they were given the chance.

    Those who voted Labour last year and remain the year before say they are more likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats (49%) than stay with Labour (41%). The survey suggests no compensating boost among those who voted leave in the referendum. In fact, it would be the Conservatives who would benefit if both main parties backed Brexit. Their support among leave voters would rise from 62% to 69%. Labour support among leave voters would slip from 21% to 19%.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-remainers-to-abandon-corbyn-if-he-passes-brexit-deal-6zfjgnm5w

    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    (assuming no change in the SNP vote).
    Quite harsh on the Lib Dems, really - well ahead of Labour in second place in votes and still well behind seats-wise in fourth.
    Some how, some way the LD’s have GOT to get ahead of the SNP in seats and have the Speaker call them third.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    edited December 2018
    Terrible thing, drinking in the evening. Leads inexorably to double vision. Or posting!
  • JohnO said:

    OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

    This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

    The thing is that's ony shocking in conventional terms. Given we have simultaniously the worst government and worst opposition of my lifetime polling parity and stasis makes a kind of sense.
    Very fair comment
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    matt said:

    Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

    I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.
    The exact same here. I muted those few Facebook friends who posted incessantly on politics during the election.

    Last night I was out for a dinner with a client and contacts. The subject came up. Despite this client being based in one of the less glamorous shires, there was a strikingly confident assumption, without having any particular advance information, by three of those present that everyone else would definitely have voted Remain. And they were right (at least in what people professed to have voted).
    I’m intrigued. Which shire and is there a league table of glamour (Staffordshire and Lincolnshire would vie for relegation to the Surrey division one fears)?
    Lancashire, that's the least glamorous shire out there.
    At least it’s ahead of Yorkshire.

    Checked with Lancastrian wife!
  • kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    JohnO said:

    OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

    This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

    Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....
    I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.

    JohnO said:

    OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

    This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

    Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....
    I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.
    Very much agree with that. In an election campaign media coverage would be far more balanced.
    It's not so much about balance as that all the strong points of view are coming from the Tories, with the LibDems playing the ultra-Remain view. Labour really has nothing worthwhile to say, since anyone can see that its own "better deal" is just fantasy and cover for its avoiding taking a position.
    Few people are hearing the Libdems either. Party Leadership elections tend to boost a major party - just like the party conferences. This week virtually all attention has been focussed on the Tories - and the polls are likely to be flattering them.
    True story, just today in a rare discussion of politics with some extended family, someone mistook vince Cable for gerard Battern.
    Now that is so funny
  • kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    JohnO said:

    OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

    This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

    Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....
    I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.

    JohnO said:

    OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

    This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

    Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....
    I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.
    Very much agree with that. In an election campaign media coverage would be far more balanced.
    It's not so much about balance as that all the strong points of view are coming from the Tories, with the LibDems playing the ultra-Remain view. Labour really has nothing worthwhile to say, since anyone can see that its own "better deal" is just fantasy and cover for its avoiding taking a position.
    Few people are hearing the Libdems either. Party Leadership elections tend to boost a major party - just like the party conferences. This week virtually all attention has been focussed on the Tories - and the polls are likely to be flattering them.
    True story, just today in a rare discussion of politics with some extended family, someone mistook vince Cable for gerard Battern.
    Ironically the one and only thing Cable has got right is realising the Liberal Democrats are finished in their current form. All his proposed constitutional reforms are about making the party dramatically easier to take over by an external force. At least En Marche, at best fiting the 6 year SDP split to merger process into 6 months this time. Which is why his pot hole obsessed activists are resisting so strongly.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    kyf_100 said:

    Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

    I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.
    A wise choice.

    I find it extremely useful to have an outlet here, where I can talk politics with people of all different persuasions and be reasonably assured of an entertaining, informed, respectful debate.

    I more or less block/delete/mute anyone who talks about politics on social media. Sometimes you feel as if the world has gone mad. It as if your niche, weird, nerdy sport has suddenly become more popular than the football overnight. Once upon a time, politics was derided by your friends as a weird obsessive hobby, but now they all have a favourite team (which they are extremely vocal about), and they seem to believe that the rules of the game are who shouts loudest wins.

    I'm only in my mid thirties and I must say it feels strange for so many people to be interested in politics. Older posters - have there been other instances where politics feels as visceral and as mainstream as now? What was it like?
    I would say not in the internet era. It certainly felt visceral back in the 80s during the miners strike etc. But then I was at University then and so it was far more immediate.
    Yup. The miners strike would have been my best guess for the last time politics felt this mainstream. Possibly 1997, which of course I remember as a teenager but was more interested in getting high at the time.

    I often wonder what things would be like if social media wasn't around, but that is rather like asking what the 60s would have been like without television. I think social media has had an amplifying effect but we are still living in strange and interesting times.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Labour would fall behind the Liberal Democrats in the polls if Jeremy Corbyn helps the Tories to secure Brexit, according to a huge new poll.

    The YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, shows that support for Labour could fall from 36% to 22% if they helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May.

    Under those circumstances, the Lib Dems would soar from 10% to 26% — their highest rating in any poll since they entered coalition government with the Tories in 2010.

    The poll shows that Labour’s supporters want a People’s Vote by a margin of almost three to one — and an even bigger proportion would stay in the European Union if they were given the chance.

    Those who voted Labour last year and remain the year before say they are more likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats (49%) than stay with Labour (41%). The survey suggests no compensating boost among those who voted leave in the referendum. In fact, it would be the Conservatives who would benefit if both main parties backed Brexit. Their support among leave voters would rise from 62% to 69%. Labour support among leave voters would slip from 21% to 19%.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-remainers-to-abandon-corbyn-if-he-passes-brexit-deal-6zfjgnm5w

    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    (assuming no change in the SNP vote).
    Quite harsh on the Lib Dems, really - well ahead of Labour in second place in votes and still well behind seats-wise in fourth.
    Some how, some way the LD’s have GOT to get ahead of the SNP in seats and have the Speaker call them third.
    Would that really make them seem any more relevant?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    kyf_100 said:

    Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

    I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.
    A wise choice.

    I find it extremely useful to have an outlet here, where I can talk politics with people of all different persuasions and be reasonably assured of an entertaining, informed, respectful debate.

    I more or less block/delete/mute anyone who talks about politics on social media. Sometimes you feel as if the world has gone mad. It as if your niche, weird, nerdy sport has suddenly become more popular than the football overnight. Once upon a time, politics was derided by your friends as a weird obsessive hobby, but now they all have a favourite team (which they are extremely vocal about), and they seem to believe that the rules of the game are who shouts loudest wins.

    I'm only in my mid thirties and I must say it feels strange for so many people to be interested in politics. Older posters - have there been other instances where politics feels as visceral and as mainstream as now? What was it like?
    I would say not in the internet era. It certainly felt visceral back in the 80s during the miners strike etc. But then I was at University then and so it was far more immediate.
    Yes imo it was worse in the early to mid 80s than now.
    However it could get worse.

    I worked for the police but the miners strike and Thatchers and Scargills reaction to it .
    Divided communities especially up here.
    The language was terrible "the enemy within " etc.
    I had friends working in the building trade, who could not get work as they were blacklisted due to been union members.

    I went on a rugby trip during the strike to Wembley.
    Our bus was stopped near London we were all asked to proof our attendance.
    At times it felt like a police state.
    Also the mass unemployment was terrible.


  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    FPTP working as intended, to keep the Euro-extremists out of office. ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    JohnO said:

    OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

    This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

    Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....
    I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.

    JohnO said:

    OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

    This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

    Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....
    I think that's right, but also Brexit continues to be Blue vs Blue, with Labour barely mentioned, so whatever your view, you can find some Tories who agree with you.
    Very much agree with that. In an election campaign media coverage would be far more balanced.
    It's not so much about balance as that all the strong points of view are coming from the Tories, with the LibDems playing the ultra-Remain view. Labour really has nothing worthwhile to say, since anyone can see that its own "better deal" is just fantasy and cover for its avoiding taking a position.
    Few people are hearing the Libdems either. Party Leadership elections tend to boost a major party - just like the party conferences. This week virtually all attention has been focussed on the Tories - and the polls are likely to be flattering them.
    True story, just today in a rare discussion of politics with some extended family, someone mistook vince Cable for gerard Battern.
    Now that is so funny
    Must have got a shock when the realised it was Cable...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    viewcode said:

    I just got this in my email:

    "...We’ll soon publish changes to our Terms of Service that may affect the Google services you use. Starting January 22, 2019, services offered under these terms will be offered by Google Ireland Limited instead of Google LLC. We’re making similar changes to the Drive, Play, YouTube, and YouTube Paid Service Terms of Service. You can find our new terms here.

    At the same time, we’re also updating Google’s Privacy Policy to specify that Google Ireland Limited will be the data controller responsible for your information and for complying with applicable privacy laws. These updates will take effect if you’re based in the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, or Switzerland (unless otherwise stated in a service-specific privacy notice).

    I do wonder if No-Deal will hit email services by non-EU companies. If business email goes *boink* there will be riots. Businesses go crazy if email goes down even for an hour or two. A day or two or a week could kill many businesses. Seriously - it is that mission critical.
    Email stopping because of brexit? Project fear has reached absurd new heights.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Yorkcity said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

    I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.
    A wise choice.

    I find it extremely useful to have an outlet here, where I can talk politics with people of all different persuasions and be reasonably assured of an entertaining, informed, respectful debate.

    I more or less block/delete/mute anyone who talks about politics on social media. Sometimes you feel as if the world has gone mad. It as if your niche, weird, nerdy sport has suddenly become more popular than the football overnight. Once upon a time, politics was derided by your friends as a weird obsessive hobby, but now they all have a favourite team (which they are extremely vocal about), and they seem to believe that the rules of the game are who shouts loudest wins.

    I'm only in my mid thirties and I must say it feels strange for so many people to be interested in politics. Older posters - have there been other instances where politics feels as visceral and as mainstream as now? What was it like?
    I would say not in the internet era. It certainly felt visceral back in the 80s during the miners strike etc. But then I was at University then and so it was far more immediate.
    Yes imo it was worse in the early to mid 80s than now.
    However it could get worse.

    I worked for the police but the miners strike and Thatchers and Scargills reaction to it .
    Divided communities especially up here.
    The language was terrible "the enemy within " etc.
    I had friends working in the building trade, who could not get work as they were blacklisted due to been union members.

    I went on a rugby trip during the strike to Wembley.
    Our bus was stopped near London we were all asked to proof our attendance.
    At times it felt like a police state.
    Also the mass unemployment was terrible.


    Agreed. Phenomenal (to today's generation) unemployment, especially among school leavers, and those laid off in their 50's. My cohort left school in '83. Simply no work. Sign on or move, if you weren't bright enough, or had relatives to employ you. At least up North. Factories, pits shutting all over.
    And everyone had a view about Maggie.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Labour seems to have 150-200 seats that are absolubtely impervious to any realistic national result. Not even the Tories have this luxury.
  • kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

    I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.
    A wise choice.

    I find it extremely useful to have an outlet here, where I can talk politics with people of all different persuasions and be reasonably assured of an entertaining, informed, respectful debate.

    I more or less block/delete/mute anyone who talks about politics on social media. Sometimes you feel as if the world has gone mad. It as if your niche, weird, nerdy sport has suddenly become more popular than the football overnight. Once upon a time, politics was derided by your friends as a weird obsessive hobby, but now they all have a favourite team (which they are extremely vocal about), and they seem to believe that the rules of the game are who shouts loudest wins.

    I'm only in my mid thirties and I must say it feels strange for so many people to be interested in politics. Older posters - have there been other instances where politics feels as visceral and as mainstream as now? What was it like?
    I would say not in the internet era. It certainly felt visceral back in the 80s during the miners strike etc. But then I was at University then and so it was far more immediate.
    Yup. The miners strike would have been my best guess for the last time politics felt this mainstream. Possibly 1997, which of course I remember as a teenager but was more interested in getting high at the time.

    I often wonder what things would be like if social media wasn't around, but that is rather like asking what the 60s would have been like without television. I think social media has had an amplifying effect but we are still living in strange and interesting times.
    Plenty of proper and epochal politics in the 80s and 90s. It was just about big ideas fought in a cohesive society, via modernity and between meaningful class interests. Then came the real Millennium, 1997, with Blair, Diana and the birth of nationalisms in the Scottish and welsh referendums. Then in short order we git 9/11 and the internet. Now politics is about big feelings fought in an atomised society, via post-modernity and between consumers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    Probably all ERG nutters knowing our luck
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    ydoethur said:


    Am laying Ashley.

    TMI, Mr Eagles...
    If justice is to be dome Faye Tozer with Giovani pernnice shouod win.. barring a disaster in their last dance
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,139
    kyf_100 said:

    I'm only in my mid thirties and I must say it feels strange for so many people to be interested in politics. Older posters - have there been other instances where politics feels as visceral and as mainstream as now? What was it like?

    In the 90's we had the fall of the Soviet Union, and the high interest rates prior to leaving the ERM resulted in people undergoing great strain: people were coming into work crying.

    In the 80's we had the Miners' Strike and - God help me - Threads. People don't remember how much Margaret Thatcher was genuinely hated in some areas, and loved in others.

    In the 70's, there was the three-day-week, power cuts, the Winter of Discontent and popular impressionists doing impressions of political figures.

    In the 60's, there was the Cuban Missile Crisis: again, scary

    And I haven't even covered the Troubles, a Muslim Iran, Gulf War 1 & 2, the extraordinary change in the roles of women, increased LGTBQ acceptance, etc

    Millennials come in for a lot of undeserved flak, but one accurate charge is that they genuinely don't bellyfeel how bad things can get.


  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    ydoethur said:


    Am laying Ashley.

    TMI, Mr Eagles...
    If justice is to be dome Faye Tozer with Giovani pernnice shouod win.. barring a disaster in their last dance
    Voted for and backed her. Was engaged first time I tried but not sure that's significant.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    ydoethur said:


    Am laying Ashley.

    TMI, Mr Eagles...
    If justice is to be dome Faye Tozer with Giovani pernnice shouod win.. barring a disaster in their last dance
    Voted for and backed her. Was engaged first time I tried but not sure that's significant.
    I don't think she has been in a dance off. I am green on her, but think Joe may well win.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited December 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour seems to have 150-200 seats that are absolubtely impervious to any realistic national result. Not even the Tories have this luxury.

    Between 1918 and 1945 the Tories had 280 seats that they could more or less bank on in any except a truly disastrous election. The one truly disastrous election they had in this period was 1923. A poor one was in 1929. For the remaining 24 years of that period even when in coalition they had a majority, often an enormous one, even on those occasions their popular vote share was underwhelming. That head start gave them a huge advantage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

    Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
    Rayleigh - Mark Francois
    Christchurch - Christopher Chope
    Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
    Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
    Newark - Robert Jenrick
    Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
    Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
    South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
    Tamworth - Chris Pincher
    Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
    Maldon- John Whittingdale
    Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
    Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:


    Am laying Ashley.

    TMI, Mr Eagles...
    If justice is to be dome Faye Tozer with Giovani pernnice shouod win.. barring a disaster in their last dance
    Voted for and backed her. Was engaged first time I tried but not sure that's significant.
    I don't think she has been in a dance off. I am green on her, but think Joe may well win.
    Only Ashley has of the last 4. Being the only male could help joe.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

    Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
    Rayleigh - Mark Francois
    Christchurch - Christopher Chope
    Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
    Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
    Newark - Robert Jenrick
    Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
    Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
    South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
    Tamworth - Chris Pincher
    Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
    Maldon- John Whittingdale
    Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
    Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

    Amazing to note nearly one-third of those seats are in Staffordshire - Staffs South, Lichfield, Aldridge Brownhills and Tamworth.

    There is something deeply wrong with a system that can see Michael Fabricant hold a seat under those circumstances.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    I just got this in my email:

    "...We’ll soon publish changes to our Terms of Service that may affect the Google services you use. Starting January 22, 2019, services offered under these terms will be offered by Google Ireland Limited instead of Google LLC. We’re making similar changes to the Drive, Play, YouTube, and YouTube Paid Service Terms of Service. You can find our new terms here.

    At the same time, we’re also updating Google’s Privacy Policy to specify that Google Ireland Limited will be the data controller responsible for your information and for complying with applicable privacy laws. These updates will take effect if you’re based in the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, or Switzerland (unless otherwise stated in a service-specific privacy notice).

    I do wonder if No-Deal will hit email services by non-EU companies. If business email goes *boink* there will be riots. Businesses go crazy if email goes down even for an hour or two. A day or two or a week could kill many businesses. Seriously - it is that mission critical.
    Email stopping because of brexit? Project fear has reached absurd new heights.
    Wait until PB is threatened...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

    Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
    Rayleigh - Mark Francois
    Christchurch - Christopher Chope
    Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
    Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
    Newark - Robert Jenrick
    Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
    Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
    South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
    Tamworth - Chris Pincher
    Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
    Maldon- John Whittingdale
    Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
    Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

    Good grief. Who would lead that motley crew?
  • Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

    Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
    Rayleigh - Mark Francois
    Christchurch - Christopher Chope
    Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
    Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
    Newark - Robert Jenrick
    Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
    Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
    South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
    Tamworth - Chris Pincher
    Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
    Maldon- John Whittingdale
    Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
    Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

    Most of the Whip's Office and then mainly unwhippables. Interesting combo.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,139
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

    Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
    Rayleigh - Mark Francois
    Christchurch - Christopher Chope
    Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
    Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
    Newark - Robert Jenrick
    Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
    Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
    South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
    Tamworth - Chris Pincher
    Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
    Maldon- John Whittingdale
    Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
    Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

    Christchurch? Isn't that the constituency of Christopher Chope, the MP who prevented action being taken against upskirting and FGM? What does he have to do to lose: sacrifice virgins to Satan?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

    Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
    Rayleigh - Mark Francois
    Christchurch - Christopher Chope
    Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
    Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
    Newark - Robert Jenrick
    Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
    Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
    South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
    Tamworth - Chris Pincher
    Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
    Maldon- John Whittingdale
    Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
    Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

    Castle Point and Newark have been Labour quite recently. However, both had ‘strange' MP’s; Tory in Castle Point, Labour in Newark.
    Absolutely delighted when Castle Point, where I then lived, went Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Gavin Williamson is the final Tory in case of a Lib Dem surge.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Pulpstar said:

    Gavin Williamson is the final Tory in case of a Lib Dem surge.

    Oh dear....
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    viewcode said:

    kyf_100 said:

    I'm only in my mid thirties and I must say it feels strange for so many people to be interested in politics. Older posters - have there been other instances where politics feels as visceral and as mainstream as now? What was it like?

    In the 90's we had the fall of the Soviet Union, and the high interest rates prior to leaving the ERM resulted in people undergoing great strain: people were coming into work crying.

    In the 80's we had the Miners' Strike and - God help me - Threads. People don't remember how much Margaret Thatcher was genuinely hated in some areas, and loved in others.

    In the 70's, there was the three-day-week, power cuts, the Winter of Discontent and popular impressionists doing impressions of political figures.

    In the 60's, there was the Cuban Missile Crisis: again, scary

    And I haven't even covered the Troubles, a Muslim Iran, Gulf War 1 & 2, the extraordinary change in the roles of women, increased LGTBQ acceptance, etc

    Millennials come in for a lot of undeserved flak, but one accurate charge is that they genuinely don't bellyfeel how bad things can get.


    My boss at the time, Ferrari owner (2nd car) had 20 quid a month after his mortgage was paid.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:


    Am laying Ashley.

    TMI, Mr Eagles...
    If justice is to be dome Faye Tozer with Giovani pernnice shouod win.. barring a disaster in their last dance
    Voted for and backed her. Was engaged first time I tried but not sure that's significant.
    I don't think she has been in a dance off. I am green on her, but think Joe may well win.
    Only Ashley has of the last 4. Being the only male could help joe.
    Everyone hates Ashley, as @Fox jr has pointed out to me many times.

    Stacey is great, but not much value.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Surprised not to see the egregious Ms Patel in that list.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I note that Sajid Javid is in favour of an immigration policy that wouldn't have allowed his own parents entry.

    Hey Siri, show me a definition of "peak Tory".
  • Opinium

    TM has improved her standing with voters with some 47% viewing her as brave and sticks to her principles. It is the highrst rating since she became PM in 2016

    And there is the reason why the consevative poll ratings are holding up

    She is a clear asset to the party and the party would struggle if she was replaced
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    I note that Sajid Javid is in favour of an immigration policy that wouldn't have allowed his own parents entry.

    Hey Siri, show me a definition of "peak Tory".

    Pull up the ladder Jack.................
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    I note that Sajid Javid is in favour of an immigration policy that wouldn't have allowed his own parents entry.

    Hey Siri, show me a definition of "peak Tory".

    Different times. They were british subjects, after all.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,139

    viewcode said:

    kyf_100 said:

    I'm only in my mid thirties and I must say it feels strange for so many people to be interested in politics. Older posters - have there been other instances where politics feels as visceral and as mainstream as now? What was it like?

    In the 90's we had the fall of the Soviet Union, and the high interest rates prior to leaving the ERM resulted in people undergoing great strain: people were coming into work crying.

    In the 80's we had the Miners' Strike and - God help me - Threads. People don't remember how much Margaret Thatcher was genuinely hated in some areas, and loved in others.

    In the 70's, there was the three-day-week, power cuts, the Winter of Discontent and popular impressionists doing impressions of political figures.

    In the 60's, there was the Cuban Missile Crisis: again, scary

    And I haven't even covered the Troubles, a Muslim Iran, Gulf War 1 & 2, the extraordinary change in the roles of women, increased LGTBQ acceptance, etc

    Millennials come in for a lot of undeserved flak, but one accurate charge is that they genuinely don't bellyfeel how bad things can get.


    My boss at the time, Ferrari owner (2nd car) had 20 quid a month after his mortgage was paid.
    I didn't have a mortgage at the time so no dog in the fight, but it was the first time I'd ever seen nice middle-class office workers look genuinely frightened. Took me quite aback, to be honest.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

    Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
    Rayleigh - Mark Francois
    Christchurch - Christopher Chope
    Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
    Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
    Newark - Robert Jenrick
    Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
    Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
    South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
    Tamworth - Chris Pincher
    Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
    Maldon- John Whittingdale
    Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
    Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

    Christchurch? Isn't that the constituency of Christopher Chope, the MP who prevented action being taken against upskirting and FGM? What does he have to do to lose: sacrifice virgins to Satan?
    He stands for traditional patriachal values. Can't be doing with all that feminist claptrap.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Opinium

    TM has improved her standing with voters with some 47% viewing her as brave and sticks to her principles. It is the highrst rating since she became PM in 2016

    And there is the reason why the consevative poll ratings are holding up

    She is a clear asset to the party and the party would struggle if she was replaced

    Big G, Mrs May won't be leading the Tories into the next election.

    She has now ONE job, to get her deal through Parliament.

    How well do you think that's going?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gavin Williamson is the final Tory in case of a Lib Dem surge.

    Oh dear....
    Dan Carden is the Labour analogue, he's the safest MP in the country in any party armageddon scenario.
  • Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

    Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
    Rayleigh - Mark Francois
    Christchurch - Christopher Chope
    Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
    Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
    Newark - Robert Jenrick
    Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
    Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
    South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
    Tamworth - Chris Pincher
    Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
    Maldon- John Whittingdale
    Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
    Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

    Christchurch? Isn't that the constituency of Christopher Chope, the MP who prevented action being taken against upskirting and FGM? What does he have to do to lose: sacrifice virgins to Satan?
    He stands for traditional patriachal values. Can't be doing with all that feminist claptrap.
    Bit like Juncker with his unacceptable behaviour to women then
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,139
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

    Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
    Rayleigh - Mark Francois
    Christchurch - Christopher Chope
    Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
    Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
    Newark - Robert Jenrick
    Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
    Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
    South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
    Tamworth - Chris Pincher
    Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
    Maldon- John Whittingdale
    Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
    Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

    Christchurch? Isn't that the constituency of Christopher Chope, the MP who prevented action being taken against upskirting and FGM? What does he have to do to lose: sacrifice virgins to Satan?
    He stands for traditional patriachal values. Can't be doing with all that feminist claptrap.
    Yeah, but I think the patriarch in his head is the grandfather from the Texas Chainsaw Massacre. I don't think I want to look in his attic... :(
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gavin Williamson is the final Tory in case of a Lib Dem surge.

    Oh dear....
    Dan Carden is the Labour analogue, he's the safest MP in the country in any party armageddon scenario.
    There's something compelling about the Tory chief whip who told Mrs May she could win a meaningful vote losing his seat when she doesn't.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    As a Labour supporter and Remainer I could live with Mays deal .

    I of course would like another referendum which was fair to leave and didn’t try and rig the ballot as that would cause a lot of problems .

    However I’m getting fed up of Labours attempts to do nothing and wait for the Tories to implode . Labour need to either back Mays deal or call for another referendum . The time for constructive ambiguity is over !

  • Opinium

    TM has improved her standing with voters with some 47% viewing her as brave and sticks to her principles. It is the highrst rating since she became PM in 2016

    And there is the reason why the consevative poll ratings are holding up

    She is a clear asset to the party and the party would struggle if she was replaced

    Big G, Mrs May won't be leading the Tories into the next election.

    She has now ONE job, to get her deal through Parliament.

    How well do you think that's going?
    Depends if it is in the next three months

    She has a near impossible job but it looks like the voters trusts everyone else a lot less
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,139

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

    Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
    Rayleigh - Mark Francois
    Christchurch - Christopher Chope
    Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
    Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
    Newark - Robert Jenrick
    Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
    Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
    South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
    Tamworth - Chris Pincher
    Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
    Maldon- John Whittingdale
    Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
    Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

    Christchurch? Isn't that the constituency of Christopher Chope, the MP who prevented action being taken against upskirting and FGM? What does he have to do to lose: sacrifice virgins to Satan?
    He stands for traditional patriachal values. Can't be doing with all that feminist claptrap.
    Bit like Juncker with his unacceptable behaviour to women then
    To the best of my knowledge, Juncker hasn't prevented legislation against FGM. I know he's on your team Big-G, but can't you give Chope a nudge and tell him not to be so serial-killer-y?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Reckon Joe.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    Opinium

    TM has improved her standing with voters with some 47% viewing her as brave and sticks to her principles. It is the highrst rating since she became PM in 2016

    And there is the reason why the consevative poll ratings are holding up

    She is a clear asset to the party and the party would struggle if she was replaced

    Big G, Mrs May won't be leading the Tories into the next election.

    She has now ONE job, to get her deal through Parliament.

    How well do you think that's going?
    Depends if it is in the next three months

    She has a near impossible job but it looks like the voters trusts everyone else a lot less
    To be fair, that’s not unreasonable. However, she WANTED the job!
  • rcs1000 said:

    Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

    I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.
    The exact same here. I muted those few Facebook friends who posted incessantly on politics during the election.

    Last night I was out for a dinner with a client and contacts. The subject came up. Despite this client being based in one of the less glamorous shires, there was a strikingly confident assumption, without having any particular advance information, by three of those present that everyone else would definitely have voted Remain. And they were right (at least in what people professed to have voted).
    It's possible, of course, that they were a secret pb aficionado, and therefore knew your views.
    pb has started to spill over into my real life a bit. It’s slightly disconcerting,
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,139
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gavin Williamson is the final Tory in case of a Lib Dem surge.

    Oh dear....
    Dan Carden is the Labour analogue, he's the safest MP in the country in any party armageddon scenario.
    If I'd've been asked, I'd've said Chris Bryant (Rhondda), but I've just googled and it's not even close. It is not my day... :(
  • viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

    Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
    Rayleigh - Mark Francois
    Christchurch - Christopher Chope
    Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
    Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
    Newark - Robert Jenrick
    Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
    Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
    South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
    Tamworth - Chris Pincher
    Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
    Maldon- John Whittingdale
    Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
    Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

    Christchurch? Isn't that the constituency of Christopher Chope, the MP who prevented action being taken against upskirting and FGM? What does he have to do to lose: sacrifice virgins to Satan?
    He stands for traditional patriachal values. Can't be doing with all that feminist claptrap.
    Bit like Juncker with his unacceptable behaviour to women then
    To the best of my knowledge, Juncker hasn't prevented legislation against FGM. I know he's on your team Big-G, but can't you give Chope a nudge and tell him not to be so serial-killer-y?
    He is obnoxious. He and Juncker are a pair
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gavin Williamson is the final Tory in case of a Lib Dem surge.

    Oh dear....
    Dan Carden is the Labour analogue, he's the safest MP in the country in any party armageddon scenario.
    If I'd've been asked, I'd've said Chris Bryant (Rhondda), but I've just googled and it's not even close. It is not my day... :(
    Outside chance for PC?
  • Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

    Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
    Rayleigh - Mark Francois
    Christchurch - Christopher Chope
    Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
    Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
    Newark - Robert Jenrick
    Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
    Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
    South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
    Tamworth - Chris Pincher
    Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
    Maldon- John Whittingdale
    Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
    Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

    It is strange that Newark is one of those listed as it has regularly changed hands in the past and Jenrick's majority is not huge. Not surprised about Sleaford and NH though. This is my current constituency and is about as true blue as they come.
  • Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

    Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
    Rayleigh - Mark Francois
    Christchurch - Christopher Chope
    Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
    Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
    Newark - Robert Jenrick
    Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
    Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
    South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
    Tamworth - Chris Pincher
    Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
    Maldon- John Whittingdale
    Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
    Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

    Ruth Davidson is the Designated Survivor of the British State. In the current senario it's best she isn't in the House of Commons upon detonation.
  • The Independent

    Labour are backing away from a referendum as was evidenced by Angela Rayner's comments on question time and may yet back TM deal

    (Please do not all shout at me, I am only reporting the article)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    nico67 said:

    As a Labour supporter and Remainer I could live with Mays deal .

    I of course would like another referendum which was fair to leave and didn’t try and rig the ballot as that would cause a lot of problems .

    However I’m getting fed up of Labours attempts to do nothing and wait for the Tories to implode . Labour need to either back Mays deal or call for another referendum . The time for constructive ambiguity is over !

    If only it were constructive.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Kevin's been in four finals and not won any I think. Will be pleased for him and Stacey if they do it but I've switched to Faye tonight.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Donny43 said:

    Labour would fall behind the Liberal Democrats in the polls if Jeremy Corbyn helps the Tories to secure Brexit, according to a huge new poll.

    The YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, shows that support for Labour could fall from 36% to 22% if they helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May.

    Under those circumstances, the Lib Dems would soar from 10% to 26% — their highest rating in any poll since they entered coalition government with the Tories in 2010.

    The poll shows that Labour’s supporters want a People’s Vote by a margin of almost three to one — and an even bigger proportion would stay in the European Union if they were given the chance.

    Those who voted Labour last year and remain the year before say they are more likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats (49%) than stay with Labour (41%). The survey suggests no compensating boost among those who voted leave in the referendum. In fact, it would be the Conservatives who would benefit if both main parties backed Brexit. Their support among leave voters would rise from 62% to 69%. Labour support among leave voters would slip from 21% to 19%.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-remainers-to-abandon-corbyn-if-he-passes-brexit-deal-6zfjgnm5w

    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    (assuming no change in the SNP vote).
    Quite harsh on the Lib Dems, really - well ahead of Labour in second place in votes and still well behind seats-wise in fourth.
    Some how, some way the LD’s have GOT to get ahead of the SNP in seats and have the Speaker call them third.
    Would that really make them seem any more relevant?
    When you are a 'national' party and you lag behind a regional party on seats it makes you look deeply irrelevant.
  • Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andrew said:


    And, on electoralcalculus, Con 38, Lab 22, LD 26 results in:
    Con - 365
    Lab - 186
    LD 34
    SNP 42

    My fav is LD 36%, Con 33%, Lab 20%. PM Vince Cable? Nope, they still come third :-)

    (OK yes, the model assumptions would have broken down totally, but it still amused me).

    Really you should be shocked.
    LD 36%, Lab 33%, Con 20%.

    Gives Con 14, Lab 295, LD 271
    who are the lucky 14? :p
    The Tory cockroaches in case of electoral armageddon:

    Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson
    Rayleigh - Mark Francois
    Christchurch - Christopher Chope
    Lichfield - Michael Fabricant
    Skipton & Ripon - Julian Smith
    Newark - Robert Jenrick
    Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins
    Sleaford & North Hykeham- Dr Caroline Johnson
    South Holland and the Deepings - Sir John Hayes
    Tamworth - Chris Pincher
    Aldridge Brownhills - Wendy Morton
    Maldon- John Whittingdale
    Castle Point - Rebecca Harris
    Sittinbourne & Sheppey - Gordon Henderson

    Castle Point and Newark have been Labour quite recently. However, both had ‘strange' MP’s; Tory in Castle Point, Labour in Newark.
    Absolutely delighted when Castle Point, where I then lived, went Labour.
    Newark had a couple of particularly poor MPs with Fiona Jones and Patrick Mercer. Both unfortunately very good examples of electoral success destroying people.
  • nico67 said:

    As a Labour supporter and Remainer I could live with Mays deal .

    I of course would like another referendum which was fair to leave and didn’t try and rig the ballot as that would cause a lot of problems .

    However I’m getting fed up of Labours attempts to do nothing and wait for the Tories to implode . Labour need to either back Mays deal or call for another referendum . The time for constructive ambiguity is over !

    Plus a very large number!
  • matt said:

    Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

    I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.
    The exact same here. I muted those few Facebook friends who posted incessantly on politics during the election.

    Last night I was out for a dinner with a client and contacts. The subject came up. Despite this client being based in one of the less glamorous shires, there was a strikingly confident assumption, without having any particular advance information, by three of those present that everyone else would definitely have voted Remain. And they were right (at least in what people professed to have voted).
    I’m intrigued. Which shire and is there a league table of glamour (Staffordshire and Lincolnshire would vie for relegation to the Surrey division one fears)?
    There is a complex matrix involving the availability of country suppers or failing that Michelin starred restaurants, golf courses, schools and hunts. I’m afraid I have to be a bit vague on the exact county but it balances mad Conservative MPs with a distressingly high level of manufacturing.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Opinium

    TM has improved her standing with voters with some 47% viewing her as brave and sticks to her principles. It is the highrst rating since she became PM in 2016

    And there is the reason why the consevative poll ratings are holding up

    She is a clear asset to the party and the party would struggle if she was replaced

    Big G, Mrs May won't be leading the Tories into the next election.

    She has now ONE job, to get her deal through Parliament.

    How well do you think that's going?
    Depends if it is in the next three months

    She has a near impossible job but it looks like the voters trusts everyone else a lot less
    Mrs May has one job to do. Get her deal through Parliament. A job she is failing at prodigiously. And, since she cannot do her one job, that's a very... nebulous... defintion of "asset" you're using.

    Surely an "asset" wouldn't be being humiliated by the EU every time they met
    An "asset" wouldn't have lost the confidence of over half her backbenchers
    An "asset" wouldn't have mobilised a nearly 300-strong majority against her in Parliament before running away in terror at the last moment.
    An "asset" wouldn't have betrayed and alienated the very coalition partners she relies on for a majority
    An "asset" wouldn't have lied to her party that she could "renegotiate" the withdrawal agreement
    An "asset" wouldn't been running down the clock to try to blackmail the UK into accepting a deal while she has a gun pointed at the head of the UK economy
    An "asset" wouldn't have been forced to PROMISE to never, ever lead another Tory election campaign not to get sacked.
    An "asset" wouldn't have turned the UK so decisively against her deal that three times as many people would rather either remain or crash out into economic chaos than vote for anything she'd negotiated.
    An "asset" wouldn't be clinging to power by their fingertips, with the overpowering stench of poltitical death hanging about them saying NOTHING HAS CHANGED NOTHING HAS CHANGED like a mentally damaged dalek.

    Perhaps you're using a different definition of asset, one I haven't heard before?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gavin Williamson is the final Tory in case of a Lib Dem surge.

    Oh dear....
    Dan Carden is the Labour analogue, he's the safest MP in the country in any party armageddon scenario.
    If I'd've been asked, I'd've said Chris Bryant (Rhondda), but I've just googled and it's not even close. It is not my day... :(
    Outside chance for PC?
    If Leanne stands?????
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gavin Williamson is the final Tory in case of a Lib Dem surge.

    Oh dear....
    Dan Carden is the Labour analogue, he's the safest MP in the country in any party armageddon scenario.
    If I'd've been asked, I'd've said Chris Bryant (Rhondda), but I've just googled and it's not even close. It is not my day... :(
    8/13 lab hold was a steal tho.
  • Opinium

    TM has improved her standing with voters with some 47% viewing her as brave and sticks to her principles. It is the highrst rating since she became PM in 2016

    And there is the reason why the consevative poll ratings are holding up

    She is a clear asset to the party and the party would struggle if she was replaced

    Big G, Mrs May won't be leading the Tories into the next election.

    She has now ONE job, to get her deal through Parliament.

    How well do you think that's going?
    Depends if it is in the next three months

    She has a near impossible job but it looks like the voters trusts everyone else a lot less
    Mrs May has one job to do. Get her deal through Parliament. A job she is failing at prodigiously. And, since she cannot do her one job, that's a very... nebulous... defintion of "asset" you're using.

    Surely an "asset" wouldn't be being humiliated by the EU every time they met
    An "asset" wouldn't have lost the confidence of over half her backbenchers
    An "asset" wouldn't have mobilised a nearly 300-strong majority against her in Parliament before running away in terror at the last moment.
    An "asset" wouldn't have betrayed and alienated the very coalition partners she relies on for a majority
    An "asset" wouldn't have lied to her party that she could "renegotiate" the withdrawal agreement
    An "asset" wouldn't been running down the clock to try to blackmail the UK into accepting a deal while she has a gun pointed at the head of the UK economy
    An "asset" wouldn't have been forced to PROMISE to never, ever lead another Tory election campaign not to get sacked.
    An "asset" wouldn't have turned the UK so decisively against her deal that three times as many people would rather either remain or crash out into economic chaos than vote for anything she'd negotiated.
    An "asset" wouldn't be clinging to power by their fingertips, with the overpowering stench of poltitical death hanging about them saying NOTHING HAS CHANGED NOTHING HAS CHANGED like a mentally damaged dalek.

    Perhaps you're using a different definition of asset, one I haven't heard before?
    I do not expect you to support TM. As I have said before do you ever think you are wrong
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    The Independent

    Labour are backing away from a referendum as was evidenced by Angela Rayner's comments on question time and may yet back TM deal

    (Please do not all shout at me, I am only reporting the article)

    https://twitter.com/IvanLewis_MP/status/1074040646518870017
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    IanB2 said:

    nico67 said:

    As a Labour supporter and Remainer I could live with Mays deal .

    I of course would like another referendum which was fair to leave and didn’t try and rig the ballot as that would cause a lot of problems .

    However I’m getting fed up of Labours attempts to do nothing and wait for the Tories to implode . Labour need to either back Mays deal or call for another referendum . The time for constructive ambiguity is over !

    If only it were constructive.
    Its aim is constructing a majority.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited December 2018

    matt said:

    Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

    I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.
    The exact same here. I muted those few Facebook friends who posted incessantly on politics during the election.

    Last night I was out for a dinner with a client and contacts. The subject came up. Despite this client being based in one of the less glamorous shires, there was a strikingly confident assumption, without having any particular advance information, by three of those present that everyone else would definitely have voted Remain. And they were right (at least in what people professed to have voted).
    I’m intrigued. Which shire and is there a league table of glamour (Staffordshire and Lincolnshire would vie for relegation to the Surrey division one fears)?
    There is a complex matrix involving the availability of country suppers or failing that Michelin starred restaurants, golf courses, schools and hunts. I’m afraid I have to be a bit vague on the exact county but it balances mad Conservative MPs with a distressingly high level of manufacturing.
    Leicestershire, then. You’re implying Oxfordshire but that’s not even a contender.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    The Independent

    Labour are backing away from a referendum as was evidenced by Angela Rayner's comments on question time and may yet back TM deal

    (Please do not all shout at me, I am only reporting the article)

    I won't shout, but politically backing the deal is far more difficult for them than a referendum.
  • Donny43 said:

    The Independent

    Labour are backing away from a referendum as was evidenced by Angela Rayner's comments on question time and may yet back TM deal

    (Please do not all shout at me, I am only reporting the article)

    https://twitter.com/IvanLewis_MP/status/1074040646518870017
    Good to get confirmation of the story

    Cat among pigeons time
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018

    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gavin Williamson is the final Tory in case of a Lib Dem surge.

    Oh dear....
    Dan Carden is the Labour analogue, he's the safest MP in the country in any party armageddon scenario.
    If I'd've been asked, I'd've said Chris Bryant (Rhondda), but I've just googled and it's not even close. It is not my day... :(
    8/13 lab hold was a steal tho.
    Went Plaid in the Assembly elections so maybe not.
This discussion has been closed.