politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a terrible week for the White House Trump drops to just

I have a smallish bet on John Kasich to be next President at 130/1. he's still 100/1. But he is only 18/1 to be Republican nominee. If he is nominee, he'd stand a good chance of becoming president taking right and centre.

Barnesian said:

I have a smallish bet on John Kasich to be next President at 130/1. he's still 100/1. But he is only 18/1 to be Republican nominee. If he is nominee, he'd stand a good chance of becoming president taking right and centre.

I would say that was a decent bet, if his name didn't rhyme with ass-itch.....

You just know Trump couldn't resist.

MarqueeMark said:

FPT: my cholesterol a couple of weeks back was 1.7 - the lowest my doctor had ever seen. On anyone.

Must be all that gammon....

Gammon is carcinogenic I'm afraid.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Mark, could be wrong, but isn't it a hard 'ch' - Kay-sick?

Not if you're Trump....

SandyRentool said:

Freggles said:

MarqueeMark said:

FPT: my cholesterol a couple of weeks back was 1.7 - the lowest my doctor had ever seen. On anyone.

Must be all that gammon....

Gammon is carcinogenic I'm afraid.

Could be fatal for the (ba)conservatives.

You're back on a winning streak(y)....

MarqueeMark said:

FPT: my cholesterol a couple of weeks back was 1.7 - the lowest my doctor had ever seen. On anyone.

Must be all that gammon....

Make sure you have British sprouts to go with that gammon:

https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1073996080759623680?s=21

Yes, there must surely come a point at which it becomes sufficiently clear to a sufficient number of people that this piece of garbage cannot, other than in the blackest of black comedy fictions, be the president of the USA.

I'm feeling more confident of his demise these days but I'd feel a little more relaxed, to be honest, if we could be sure that a 'big beautiful' US recession was just around the corner.

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

Let's face it, the polls over most of the last year seem to have been entirely immune to the news.

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

Sympathy vote for Theresa, probably.....

MarqueeMark said:

FPT: my cholesterol a couple of weeks back was 1.7 - the lowest my doctor had ever seen. On anyone.

Must be all that gammon....

I had that in my early 30s and occasionally boasted about it , as you are. Everyone at work got tested by occupational health and I was the lowest in the whole (big) company. Then some years later it turned out I had a rare sort of benign brain tumour all along, that was suppressing my cholesterol.

AmpfieldAndy said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

When was the sampling done ?

Thursday and Friday of this week.

Barnesian said:

I have a smallish bet on John Kasich to be next President at 130/1. he's still 100/1. But he is only 18/1 to be Republican nominee. If he is nominee, he'd stand a good chance of becoming president taking right and centre.

I backed Kasich last time. Never again! The focus on Hillary's campaign failings leads us to forget that Trump first beat a bunch of insipid, Establishment Republicans, including Kasich.

I see macron speech from behind the golden desk hadn’t stopped the fall out 76 larpers from kicking off again.

AmpfieldAndy said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

FPT: my cholesterol a couple of weeks back was 1.7 - the lowest my doctor had ever seen. On anyone.

Must be all that gammon....

Make sure you have British sprouts to go with that gammon:

https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1073996080759623680?s=21

Meet them half-way.

Call them Waterloo Sprouts.....

Just call them sprouts. The taste is awful whatever you call them.

You clearly never done them properly.

Barnesian said:

I have a smallish bet on John Kasich to be next President at 130/1. he's still 100/1. But he is only 18/1 to be Republican nominee. If he is nominee, he'd stand a good chance of becoming president taking right and centre.

Surely Pence is the next President, if Republican, and otherwise it will be a Democrat?

AmpfieldAndy said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

FPT: my cholesterol a couple of weeks back was 1.7 - the lowest my doctor had ever seen. On anyone.

Must be all that gammon....

Make sure you have British sprouts to go with that gammon:

https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1073996080759623680?s=21

Meet them half-way.

Call them Waterloo Sprouts.....

Just call them sprouts. The taste is awful whatever you call them.

Roasted sprouts are edible. I can't understand why anyone boils them.

TOPPING said:

Betting post:
Stacey is strong favourite for Strictly but I think Faye at 16s is value.

DYOR (watch it!!)

I agree.

Joe's supporters might swing it for him.

Am laying Ashley, she's been in the dance off for the last three week.

We don't like ringers.

OblitusSumMe said:

Barnesian said:

I have a smallish bet on John Kasich to be next President at 130/1. he's still 100/1. But he is only 18/1 to be Republican nominee. If he is nominee, he'd stand a good chance of becoming president taking right and centre.

Surely Pence is the next President, if Republican, and otherwise it will be a Democrat?

If Trump takes a Pounding, Pence has no chance.

AmpfieldAndy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

FPT: my cholesterol a couple of weeks back was 1.7 - the lowest my doctor had ever seen. On anyone.

Must be all that gammon....

Make sure you have British sprouts to go with that gammon:

https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1073996080759623680?s=21

Meet them half-way.

Call them Waterloo Sprouts.....

Just call them sprouts. The taste is awful whatever you call them.

You clearly never done them properly.

Probably. I am not sure I want to know the answer but the proper way is....?

Roasted not boiled. Mrs urquhart roasts them with pancetta and chestnuts.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Am laying Ashley.

TMI, Mr Eagles...

TOPPING said:

Betting post:
Stacey is strong favourite for Strictly but I think Faye at 16s is value.

DYOR (watch it!!)

Be careful though. Joe has millions of followers, and other YouTubers have been soliciting votes for him. Could hinge on the youth turnout.
His sister is Zoella btw. All betting inside info from my 14 yo!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bruxelles sprouts are the only food worse than pineapple on pizza.

Can't stand them cooked but do think they are fab raw. Same goes for all the brassicas. Love them raw, hate them cooked.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

When was the sampling done ?

Thursday and Friday of this week.

Thanks. That’s a fair comment then although frankly, I’m stunned.

Why - you underestimate just how popular TM is with voters

As I was saying earlier. Most people aren't following the detail and just see a decent woman struggling with some very difficult colleagues.

If the Tories ditch May their ratings will plummet

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

When was the sampling done ?

Thursday and Friday of this week.

Thanks. That’s a fair comment then although frankly, I’m stunned.

Why - you underestimate just how popular TM is with voters

As I was saying earlier. Most people aren't following the detail and just see a decent woman struggling with some very difficult colleagues.

If the Tories ditch May their ratings will plummet

Indeed they will

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

Quite incredible. Even if labour do manage to bring the government down, it is far from clear we won’t be back with exactly the same situation we have now.

FrancisUrquhart said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

Quite incredible. Even if labour do manage to bring the government down, it is far from clear we won’t be back with exactly the same situation we have now.

A lot of it is probably down - yet again - to the Opposition being frozen out by the commentariat.

Or to them being led by Jeremy Corbyn. One or the other.

More likely both, TBH.

AmpfieldAndy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

When was the sampling done ?

Thursday and Friday of this week.

Thanks. That’s a fair comment then although frankly, I’m stunned.

Why - you underestimate just how popular TM is with voters

She might be popular in North Wales, although not enough to actually win seats, but I can’t find anyone in Hampshire, Tory or not, who has a good word for her.

You do talk nonsense.

SandyRentool said:

Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.

AmpfieldAndy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

JohnO said:

OPINIUM poll has Lab 39, (0), Cons 38 (+2), LDs 8 (+1), UKIP 6 (-2)

This week’s ‘events’ don’t seem to have hurt the Blues.

When was the sampling done ?

Thursday and Friday of this week.

Thanks. That’s a fair comment then although frankly, I’m stunned.

Why - you underestimate just how popular TM is with voters

She might be popular in North Wales, although not enough to actually win seats, but I can’t find anyone in Hampshire, Tory or not, who has a good word for her.

You do talk nonsense.

There was methinking it was the other way round. As you have no insights to offer, best to leave it there.

The correct response was to tell us how hard you have been looking in Hampshire? On a sliding scale from knocking on every door in the county to talking to everyone in your front room?

Both UK and US legislatures have the ways and means to remove their useless leaders. A pity that neither is likely to do so.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour would fall behind the Liberal Democrats in the polls if Jeremy Corbyn helps the Tories to secure Brexit, according to a huge new poll.

The YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, shows that support for Labour could fall from 36% to 22% if they helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May.

Under those circumstances, the Lib Dems would soar from 10% to 26% — their highest rating in any poll since they entered coalition government with the Tories in 2010.

The poll shows that Labour’s supporters want a People’s Vote by a margin of almost three to one — and an even bigger proportion would stay in the European Union if they were given the chance.

Those who voted Labour last year and remain the year before say they are more likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats (49%) than stay with Labour (41%). The survey suggests no compensating boost among those who voted leave in the referendum. In fact, it would be the Conservatives who would benefit if both main parties backed Brexit. Their support among leave voters would rise from 62% to 69%. Labour support among leave voters would slip from 21% to 19%.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-remainers-to-abandon-corbyn-if-he-passes-brexit-deal-6zfjgnm5w

This sort of polling is up there with "Would you vote for New Party" on the list of "complete crap hypothetical"

Which is true. However, it can only harden sentiment against the Deal in MV. Not that Mrs May is doing anything of any kind to win over opposition votes.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour would fall behind the Liberal Democrats in the polls if Jeremy Corbyn helps the Tories to secure Brexit, according to a huge new poll.

The YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, shows that support for Labour could fall from 36% to 22% if they helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May.

Under those circumstances, the Lib Dems would soar from 10% to 26% — their highest rating in any poll since they entered coalition government with the Tories in 2010.

The poll shows that Labour’s supporters want a People’s Vote by a margin of almost three to one — and an even bigger proportion would stay in the European Union if they were given the chance.

Those who voted Labour last year and remain the year before say they are more likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats (49%) than stay with Labour (41%). The survey suggests no compensating boost among those who voted leave in the referendum. In fact, it would be the Conservatives who would benefit if both main parties backed Brexit. Their support among leave voters would rise from 62% to 69%. Labour support among leave voters would slip from 21% to 19%.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-remainers-to-abandon-corbyn-if-he-passes-brexit-deal-6zfjgnm5w

So Labour abstaining on the withdrawal agreement has absolutely no downside?

Andrew said:

Not going to be a fun few months for Trump. On top of his people being imprisoned almost every week, next month the Dems will have his tax records ..... and no doubt start leaking the embarrassing bits.

Probably just turns out to be nothing criminal, rather just that he has less money now than he inherited.

My guess would be that Trump has paid roughly zero tax ever, with most or all his buildings having been built after securing huge tax breaks.

Bromptonaut said:

Latest from Chris Grey is tiresomely excellent.

‘...throughout the last couple of years there has periodically been the crunching sound of this or that Brexit fantasy encountering the lethal force of reality.’

https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/1073972477355794432?s=21

It might be expected that as reality bites in these and other ways, Brexiters would gradually modify or abandon their fantasies. Indeed, to an extent, this is what Theresa May – having initially embraced those fantasies – has done. But, of course, they do not. Instead, we are now seeing a doubling down on ever more absurd positions. This can be seen in the spate of interventions over the last few days from advocates of ‘a better deal’ or of a ‘managed no deal’.

Indeed, it is a rich irony that the stubborn refusal of Brexiters to engage seriously with the realities of Brexit may just end up with its being reversed.

Richard_Tyndall said:

SandyRentool said:

Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.

The exact same here. I muted those few Facebook friends who posted incessantly on politics during the election.

Last night I was out for a dinner with a client and contacts. The subject came up. Despite this client being based in one of the less glamorous shires, there was a strikingly confident assumption, without having any particular advance information, by three of those present that everyone else would definitely have voted Remain. And they were right (at least in what people professed to have voted).

Richard_Tyndall said:

SandyRentool said:

Just off out for a pre-Christmas get-together with our neighbours. Dare I mention the 'B' word?

I have a rule never ever to raise politics unless someone else chooses to. On the same lines I never put political posts on my facebook. (Actually I did once only which was the day after the Brexit vote). I really do find it tiresome to read political posts on FB and keep all my online political discussion for here.

A wise choice.

I find it extremely useful to have an outlet here, where I can talk politics with people of all different persuasions and be reasonably assured of an entertaining, informed, respectful debate.

I more or less block/delete/mute anyone who talks about politics on social media. Sometimes you feel as if the world has gone mad. It as if your niche, weird, nerdy sport has suddenly become more popular than the football overnight. Once upon a time, politics was derided by your friends as a weird obsessive hobby, but now they all have a favourite team (which they are extremely vocal about), and they seem to believe that the rules of the game are who shouts loudest wins.

I'm only in my mid thirties and I must say it feels strange for so many people to be interested in politics. Older posters - have there been other instances where politics feels as visceral and as mainstream as now? What was it like?

Andrew said:

Not going to be a fun few months for Trump. On top of his people being imprisoned almost every week, next month the Dems will have his tax records ..... and no doubt start leaking the embarrassing bits.

Probably just turns out to be nothing criminal, rather just that he has less money now than he inherited.

How do you become a millionaire?

Start with two million and set up a restaurant.

David_Evershed said:

Andrew said:

Not going to be a fun few months for Trump. On top of his people being imprisoned almost every week, next month the Dems will have his tax records ..... and no doubt start leaking the embarrassing bits.

Probably just turns out to be nothing criminal, rather just that he has less money now than he inherited.

How do you become a millionaire?

Start with two million and set up a restaurant.

How do you make a small fortune in Vegas?

Start with a very large one.

Donny43 said:

ydoethur said:

OblitusSumMe said:

ydoethur said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Barnesian said:

I have a smallish bet on John Kasich to be next President at 130/1. he's still 100/1. But he is only 18/1 to be Republican nominee. If he is nominee, he'd stand a good chance of becoming president taking right and centre.

Surely Pence is the next President, if Republican, and otherwise it will be a Democrat?

If Trump takes a Pounding, Pence has no chance.

I'm thinking that if the pounding is bad enough he steps down in return for a pardon before the next election. If the pounding isn't that bad then his base sticks with him and the family stays in the White House.

And once again someone fails to appreciate the awesomeness of my punning.

If Trump takes a Pounding, Pence has no chance.

Honestly, some people are not the full shilling, or certainly not up to the mark...

To be franc, you missed an opportunity to include a few more.

I didn't want to make a zloty puns. I thought it might cause t-rouble. One does sterling service.

David_Evershed said:

ydoethur said:

Donny43 said:

ydoethur said:

OblitusSumMe said:

ydoethur said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Barnesian said:

I have a smallish bet on John Kasich to be next President at 130/1. he's still 100/1. But he is only 18/1 to be Republican nominee. If he is nominee, he'd stand a good chance of becoming president taking right and centre.

Surely Pence is the next President, if Republican, and otherwise it will be a Democrat?

If Trump takes a Pounding, Pence has no chance.

I'm thinking that if the pounding is bad enough he steps down in return for a pardon before the next election. If the pounding isn't that bad then his base sticks with him and the family stays in the White House.

And once again someone fails to appreciate the awesomeness of my punning.

If Trump takes a Pounding, Pence has no chance.

Honestly, some people are not the full shilling, or certainly not up to the mark...

To be franc, you missed an opportunity to include a few more.

I didn't want to make a zloty puns. I thought it might cause t-rouble. One does sterling service.

Get real.

Are you apesoed to these puns? If so I'll rand them off with that one.

Bromptonaut said:

ydoethur said:

David_Evershed said:

ydoethur said:

Donny43 said:

ydoethur said:

OblitusSumMe said:

ydoethur said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Barnesian said:

I have a smallish bet on John Kasich to be next President at 130/1. he's still 100/1. But he is only 18/1 to be Republican nominee. If he is nominee, he'd stand a good chance of becoming president taking right and centre.

Surely Pence is the next President, if Republican, and otherwise it will be a Democrat?

If Trump takes a Pounding, Pence has no chance.

I'm thinking that if the pounding is bad enough he steps down in return for a pardon before the next election. If the pounding isn't that bad then his base sticks with him and the family stays in the White House.

And once again someone fails to appreciate the awesomeness of my punning.

If Trump takes a Pounding, Pence has no chance.

Honestly, some people are not the full shilling, or certainly not up to the mark...

To be franc, you missed an opportunity to include a few more.

I didn't want to make a zloty puns. I thought it might cause t-rouble. One does sterling service.

Get real.

Are you apesoed to these puns? If so I'll rand them off with that one.

You really have a yen for punning.

It's yuan pun after another win me, but I don't make a drachma of it.

DecrepitJohnL said:

viewcode said:

houndtang said:

In the realms of impossible hypotheticals, but what really would be the UKs chances in a military attack on continental Europe??

We could nuke it. But I don't think we could invade and occupy. We don't have enough people, planes, tanks, shells, boats, anything and everything.

As of 2018, the British Army comprises just over 81,500 trained regular (full-time) personnel and just over 27,000 trained reserve (part-time) personnel.

On D-Day, the Allies landed around 156,000 troops in Normandy.

Everything is on Youtube these days, including Binkov's Battlegrounds analysing hypothetical wars based on military capability. Ignore the silly puppet. The verdict is that we could not defend Gibraltar from Spain, for instance.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPdk3JuQGxOCMlZLLt4drhw

I Googled.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMpDn9VIDLM